XP Factory PLC (XPF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £18.92M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 472.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.33
• Revenue Growth: 20.40%
• EPS Growth: -271.43%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 1,049
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 175,157,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 491,331
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 472,016
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.33
• P/FCF Ratio: -350.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: 12.50p ▼(-1.96% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/07/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/07/25

XP Factory PLC's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial instability, characterized by high leverage and cash flow challenges. Technical analysis further indicates bearish momentum, while valuation metrics highlight the company's lack of profitability. The positive corporate events related to employee engagement do not significantly offset these concerns.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent double-digit revenue growth demonstrates durable demand for XP Factory’s experiential offerings and supports scale economics. Over 2-6 months this trend underpins cash generation potential from higher utilisation, gives room to invest in marketing and network support, and helps absorb fixed costs as the business expands.

Healthy Gross Margins

A healthy gross profit margin shows the core escape-room and activity products are profitable before overheads, indicating durable unit economics. This margin buffer supports reinvestment into venues, marketing and new-site openings, and increases the odds of eventual operating leverage despite current net losses.

Asset-Light Expansion via Franchising

A franchising and partner-operated model reduces capital intensity and accelerates footprint growth without proportionate balance sheet investment. Recurring royalty and service fees from partners provide scalable revenue streams and lower cash burn per new site, improving long-term growth sustainability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Material leverage raises refinancing and interest-cost risks that persist beyond short-term cycles. High debt limits strategic flexibility, constrains investment in new sites or refurbishments, and increases the chance of covenant pressures or higher financing costs if cash flows remain volatile over the next several quarters.

Declining Free Cash Flow

A sustained decline in free cash flow undermines the company’s ability to service debt, fund franchise support or capex, and maintain liquidity. Persistent negative FCF may force dilutive equity raises or cost-cutting that can slow growth and impair long-term competitiveness in experiential venues.

Lack of Profitability / Negative ROE

Negative net margins and ROE indicate the company is not generating returns for shareholders from current operations. This structural profitability gap increases dependence on external funding, reduces capacity to reinvest earnings, and raises questions about sustainable unit economics without material margin or scale improvements.

XP Factory PLC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XP Factory Plc provides live escape-the-room experiences in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company develops and operates a network of franchised, licensed, and owner-operated branches and offsite escape-the-room type games under the Escape Hunt brand; and a network of owner-operated and franchised socializing cocktail bar venues under the Boom Battle Bar brand. It also engages in the game designing and IP licensing business. The company was formerly known as Escape Hunt plc and changed its name to XP Factory Plc in December 2021. XP Factory Plc was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Crawley, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

XP Factory PLC generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by selling tickets for its immersive experiences and adventure activities. The company also earns money from corporate events and team-building sessions, which are tailored to business clients looking for unique ways to engage their teams. Additionally, XP Factory may explore partnerships with other entertainment providers and local businesses to create bundled experiences or cross-promotional opportunities. Revenue is further supplemented through merchandise sales at its venues, food and beverage offerings, and potentially from licensing its game concepts to third-party operators.

XP Factory PLC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XP Factory PLC demonstrates robust revenue growth, but profitability and cash flow issues persist. High leverage and negative returns on equity suggest financial instability. While the company manages production costs effectively, it needs to address its debt levels and improve cash flow management to enhance financial health.

Income Statement

XP Factory PLC shows a positive revenue growth trend with a 13.87% increase in the latest period, indicating strong top-line growth. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin and fluctuating EBIT margins. The gross profit margin remains healthy, suggesting efficient cost management at the production level.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced asset structure. However, the negative return on equity highlights challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a concerning decline in free cash flow, with a significant negative growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some ability to convert income into cash, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	61.13M	57.82M	45.87M	22.83M	6.98M	2.66M
Gross Profit	31.15M	36.98M	24.11M	14.71M	5.08M	1.88M
EBITDA	10.10M	8.49M	7.35M	6.52M	2.30M	-1.85M
Net Income	-886.00K	-1.25M	-336.00K	-994.00K	-874.00K	-6.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	84.95M	81.61M	73.15M	61.91M	48.97M	11.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.52M	1.09M	3.94M	3.19M	8.22M	2.72M
Total Debt	46.83M	43.23M	33.68M	25.52M	10.06M	4.03M
Total Liabilities	63.01M	57.83M	48.14M	40.31M	27.15M	6.17M
Stockholders Equity	21.95M	23.78M	25.00M	21.60M	21.82M	5.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.06M	-55.00K	3.29M	-5.89M	-1.96M	-3.30M
Operating Cash Flow	7.68M	7.63M	10.72M	3.32M	742.00K	-1.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.41M	-7.30M	-6.19M	-6.59M	-11.91M	-2.03M
Financing Cash Flow	1.39M	-3.17M	-3.77M	-1.78M	16.67M	3.83M

XP Factory PLC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:XPF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.69, above the 50-day MA of 12.75, and above the 200-day MA of 11.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.80 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:XPF.

XP Factory PLC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JD	71 Outperform	£3.79B	26.72	19.64%	1.21%	14.60%	58.84%
DOCS	64 Neutral	£634.10M	-23.98	4.61%	3.36%	-2.59%	-46.13%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
ASC	59 Neutral	£336.82M	-1.12	-81.34%	―	-14.89%	12.08%
SHOE	54 Neutral	£23.11M	17.87	8.50%	―	-6.24%	-82.21%
XPF	47 Neutral	£18.92M	-3.21	-5.08%	―	20.40%	-271.43%
DEBS	41 Neutral	£324.59M	-3.32	-172.24%	―	-65.42%	27.73%

XP Factory PLC Corporate Events

XP Factory Names TruFin CEO James van den Bergh as New Chairman

XP Factory plc has appointed James van den Bergh as independent non-executive chairman, succeeding Richard Rose with immediate effect following Rose’s previously signalled decision to step down. Van den Bergh, currently CEO of AIM-listed TruFin plc and a former Merrill Lynch banker and Arrowgrass Capital Partners executive, brings a track record of profitable growth, disciplined capital allocation and strong investor relationships, which the board expects to leverage as XP Factory seeks to unlock further value after growing revenues from £0.9m in FY16 to nearly £58m in FY25.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPF) stock is a Hold with a £14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XP Factory PLC stock, see the GB:XPF Stock Forecast page.

XP Factory Posts Record Festive Sales but Cuts Earnings Outlook Amid Boom Slowdown

XP Factory reported record quarterly sales over the 2025/26 festive period, with UK owned and operated revenue up 4.2% and group year-to-date pre-IFRS 16 adjusted EBITDA edging to £4.8m, but warned that full-year 2026 earnings will fall below market expectations. Escape Hunt delivered standout performance, posting 10% UK revenue growth and site-level EBITDA margins of around 43%, supported by new sites in Canterbury and Sheffield and continued robust like-for-like sales, while the site pipeline remains strong though near-term expansion will be slowed to preserve balance-sheet headroom. In contrast, Boom Battle Bar saw only modest revenue growth of 2.5% as a 7.2% like-for-like sales decline in a weak competitive socialising market, compounded by sharp labour cost inflation, squeezed margins to about 18% and forced the closure of its Southend venue, despite £2m of annualised cost savings. With net debt at £5.6m and sector-wide like-for-like declines and consolidation accelerating, the board now expects FY26 pre-IFRS 16 adjusted EBITDA of £5.0m–£6.0m and signals that FY27 will be a year of consolidation, moderating new openings but aiming to position both Escape Hunt and Boom to benefit as weaker rivals exit the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPF) stock is a Hold with a £14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XP Factory PLC stock, see the GB:XPF Stock Forecast page.

XP Factory Executives Increase Stakes Through Share Incentive Plan

XP Factory plc has disclosed that four senior executives, including CEO Richard Harpham and COO Andrew Jacobs, have acquired ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan, with 4,624 Partnership Shares purchased in the market on 12 January 2026 at 12.975p per share and an equal number of Matching Shares awarded at nil cost. Following these transactions, which marginally increase their individual stakes but leave each holding well under 1% of the company’s issued share capital, XP Factory continues to signal its commitment to broad-based employee ownership and regulatory transparency, though the dealings are not material in terms of overall control or capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPF) stock is a Hold with a £11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XP Factory PLC stock, see the GB:XPF Stock Forecast page.

XP Factory Updates on Share Incentive Plan

XP Factory PLC has announced an update regarding its Share Incentive Plan (SIP), an all-employee share scheme that allows employees to purchase shares using salary deductions. On December 11, 2025, the company acquired 6,900 Partnership Shares at 10.87 pence each and awarded an equal number of Matching Shares at no cost to participating directors and PDMRs. This initiative is part of XP Factory’s strategy to align employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing stakeholder value and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPF) stock is a Hold with a £11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XP Factory PLC stock, see the GB:XPF Stock Forecast page.

XP Factory PLC Reports Strong Growth and Secures New Credit Facility

XP Factory PLC reported a 13% increase in revenue to £28.2 million for the first half of FY2026, driven by growth in both Escape Hunt and Boom Battle Bar brands. Despite a challenging market environment, the company achieved strong cash generation and improved EBITDA margins. The group secured a new £20 million credit facility with HSBC, enhancing its financial flexibility. The Christmas trading period remains crucial, with record pre-bookings at Boom Battle Bar, although consumer spending is lower than the previous year. The company plans further expansion with new site openings and is considering shareholder returns through share buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPF) stock is a Hold with a £11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XP Factory PLC stock, see the GB:XPF Stock Forecast page.