Paragon Banking Group PLC (GB:PAG)
LSE:PAG
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Paragon Banking Group PLC
(LSE:PAG)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
798.00 p
▼(-1.48% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:01/04/26
Overall score reflects attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and supportive technical positioning above major moving averages. These positives are tempered by financial risks from rising leverage and notable volatility in revenue and cash flow, which reduce confidence in the stability of recent performance.
Positive Factors
Predictable net-interest income model
Paragon’s core business is earning net interest income from loans funded by retail deposits, a structurally recurring revenue stream. This spread-driven model supports stable, repeatable earnings as long as lending volumes and margins persist, reducing reliance on volatile non-interest activities and supporting predictable cash generation over months.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A marked increase in debt-to-equity heightens balance-sheet risk for a mortgage-focused lender: greater reliance on borrowed funding reduces financial flexibility, increases sensitivity to funding-cost shocks and market stress, and can amplify losses in downturns, constraining portfolio growth and strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Predictable net-interest income model
Paragon’s core business is earning net interest income from loans funded by retail deposits, a structurally recurring revenue stream. This spread-driven model supports stable, repeatable earnings as long as lending volumes and margins persist, reducing reliance on volatile non-interest activities and supporting predictable cash generation over months.
Read all positive factors
Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.44B
Dividend Yield4.74%
Average Volume (3M)354.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.2
Beta (1Y)1.46
Revenue Growth-6.82%
EPS Growth-7.03%
CountryUK
Employees1,411
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.92
Shares Outstanding191,201,860
10 Day Avg. Volume291,721
30 Day Avg. Volume354,483
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.21
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio5.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£1,040.00Price Target Upside28.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)£511.11M
Paragon Banking Group PLC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Paragon Banking Group PLC is a leading provider of diverse financial solutions across the United Kingdom. The company's operations are structured into three distinct divisions: Mortgage Lending, Commercial Lending, and Idem Capital. The Mortgage L...
How the Company Makes Money
Paragon Banking Group PLC primarily makes money by earning net interest income: it pays interest on customer deposits (its funding base) and receives higher interest income from loans it originates and holds on its balance sheet (e.g., buy-to-let ...
Paragon Banking Group PLC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.19B | 1.24B | 501.20M | 455.10M | 779.40M | 354.50M |
| Gross Profit | 429.00M | 452.40M | 501.20M | 455.10M | 604.90M | 361.30M |
| EBITDA | 253.70M | 272.30M | 260.40M | 207.50M | 423.40M | 220.00M |
| Net Income | 178.10M | 180.30M | 186.00M | 153.90M | 313.60M | 164.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.94B | 19.93B | 19.27B | 18.42B | 16.65B | 15.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.64B | 2.39B | 2.53B | 2.99B | 1.93B | 1.38B |
| Total Debt | 2.54B | 1.71B | 1.01B | 3.10B | 4.02B | 4.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.38B | 18.51B | 17.85B | 17.01B | 15.24B | 13.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.55B | 1.42B | 1.42B | 1.41B | 1.42B | 1.24B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 355.90M | 327.80M | 2.21B | 2.17B | 1.17B | 873.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 357.00M | 329.10M | 2.22B | 2.17B | 1.17B | 878.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.36B | -911.10M | -424.70M | -3.10M | -2.40M | -4.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 513.80M | 446.00M | -2.26B | -1.10B | -595.60M | -1.44B |
Paragon Banking Group PLC Technical Analysis
Neutral
810.00
Price Trends
755.42
Positive
781.20
Negative
801.70
Negative
Market Momentum
5.10
Negative
55.40
Neutral
76.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:PAG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 810 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 752.13, above the 50-day MA of 755.42, and above the 200-day MA of 801.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:PAG.
Paragon Banking Group PLC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | £1.78B | 6.63 | 13.26% | 5.34% | -8.38% | -2.55% | |
70 Outperform | £135.97M | 7.65 | 6.53% | 5.68% | -4.79% | -28.34% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | £1.44B | 8.21 | 12.75% | 4.74% | -6.82% | -7.03% | |
58 Neutral | £1.12B | 16.31 | 5.16% | ― | -10.71% | 23.10% | |
54 Neutral | £249.54M | 14.19 | 4.70% | 2.66% | 0.49% | -11.39% | |
53 Neutral | £294.22M | 34.45 | 1.89% | ― | 0.07% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:PAG
Paragon Banking Group PLC
765.00
-96.21
-11.17%
GB:ARBB
Arbuthnot Banking
845.00
-57.84
-6.41%
GB:MTRO
Metro Bank
166.80
39.00
30.52%
GB:OSB
OSB Group PLC
520.00
53.26
11.41%
GB:VANQ
Vanquis Banking Group
115.40
26.80
30.25%
GB:STB
Secure Trust Bank
1,332.00
600.94
82.20%
Paragon Banking Group PLC Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Cuts Treasury Shares, Resets Voting Base
Neutral
Jun 3, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has cancelled 8,000,000 ordinary £1.00 treasury shares, representing 4.25% of its voting rights, under the Companies Act 2006. Following the cancellation, the company now holds 1,162,909 shares in treasury, with tota...
DividendsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group posts half-year report and declares 15.1p interim dividend
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has published its Half Year Financial Report and Pillar III disclosures for the six months ended 31 March 2026, making them available through the National Storage Mechanism, the London Stock Exchange website and its own i...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Figure
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has confirmed that, as of 31 May 2026, its issued share capital comprises 197,404,960 ordinary shares, of which 9,162,909 are held in treasury. This leaves 188,242,051 ordinary shares carrying voting rights, a figure that...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Total
Neutral
Apr 30, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has confirmed that as of 30 April 2026 its issued share capital comprises 197,404,960 ordinary shares, of which 9,176,056 are held in treasury. This leaves a total of 188,228,904 voting rights in the company, a key refere...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Updates Market on Total Voting Rights
Neutral
Mar 31, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has reported that, as of 31 March 2026, its issued share capital comprises 197,404,960 ordinary shares, of which 9,176,056 are held in treasury. This leaves 188,228,904 ordinary shares carrying voting rights, a figure tha...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Completes £50m Share Buyback and Updates Voting Rights
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has completed its £50 million share buyback programme, repurchasing ordinary £1.00 shares via Jefferies International between 23 and 26 March 2026 at prices mostly in the mid-700 pence range. The programme’...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Adds 400,000 Shares to Treasury in Ongoing Buyback
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has repurchased 400,000 ordinary £1.00 shares between 16 and 20 March 2026 through Jefferies International, under its previously announced £50 million share buyback programme. Following these transactions, the b...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Paragon Director Takes Independent Role at Commercial International Bank Egypt
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has announced that non-executive director Tanvi Davda has been appointed as an independent non-executive director of Commercial International Bank (Egypt) S.A.E., effective 15 March 2026. The additional board role broaden...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Expands £50m Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing 523,000 ordinary £1 shares between 9 and 13 March 2026 through Jefferies International at volume-weighted average prices ranging from about...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.