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Paragon Banking Group PLC (GB:PAG)
LSE:PAG

Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:PAG

Paragon Banking Group PLC

(LSE:PAG)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
924.00p
▲(4.88% Upside)
Overall score reflects attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and supportive technical positioning above major moving averages. These positives are tempered by financial risks from rising leverage and notable volatility in revenue and cash flow, which reduce confidence in the stability of recent performance.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates successful market penetration and product demand, supporting long-term business expansion and stability.
Cash Flow Strength
Strong cash flow enhances financial flexibility, enabling reinvestment in growth opportunities and providing resilience against economic downturns.
Balance Sheet Health
A debt-free balance sheet reduces financial risk and interest obligations, allowing more capital for strategic investments and shareholder returns.
Negative Factors
Equity Ratio
High reliance on liabilities can pose risks if market conditions change, potentially impacting the company's ability to leverage its balance sheet effectively.
Operating Efficiency
Lack of detailed operational metrics hinders the ability to fully evaluate cost management and profitability, affecting strategic planning and performance analysis.
Return on Equity
A decline in return on equity suggests potential challenges in generating returns from shareholder investments, impacting investor confidence and valuation.

Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Paragon Banking Group PLC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionParagon Banking Group PLC provides financial services in the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Mortgage Lending, Commercial Lending, and Idem Capital. The Mortgages Lending segment offers buy-to-let, owner-occupied first and second charge lending, and related activities. The Commercial Lending segment provides SME lending, development finance, structured lending, and motor finance services. The Idem Capital segment engages in the acquisition and servicing of products, such as leases, motor finance agreements, mortgages, and unsecured loans; and offers servicing of loan portfolios for clients, including banks, private equity houses, and specialist lenders. It also provides a range of savings products to households. The company was formerly known as The Paragon Group of Companies PLC and changed its name to Paragon Banking Group PLC in September 2017. Paragon Banking Group PLC was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Solihull, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyParagon Banking Group generates revenue primarily through interest income from its lending activities, which includes mortgages and personal loans. The company earns interest on the funds it lends to customers, which is a significant portion of its income. In addition to interest income, Paragon also generates revenue from fees associated with loan origination and servicing. The savings accounts offered by Paragon attract deposits from customers, providing the capital needed for its lending operations, while also earning interest expenses. Key partnerships with intermediaries in the mortgage market facilitate access to a broader customer base, enhancing loan origination and contributing to overall revenue growth. Additionally, Paragon's focus on niche markets allows it to maintain competitive pricing and lending terms, further solidifying its revenue streams.

Paragon Banking Group PLC Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Paragon Banking Group PLC shows strong financial performance with robust revenue growth, high net profit margin, and excellent cash flow management. The balance sheet is solid with no debt, though the equity ratio indicates reliance on liabilities typical for the industry. The absence of EBIT and EBITDA figures limits the assessment of operational efficiency.
Income Statement
Paragon Banking Group PLC has demonstrated strong revenue growth over recent years, with a notable increase from 393.3 million to 481.7 million in the most recent year. The company maintains a solid net profit margin, reaching 38.6% in the latest year, which indicates high profitability. However, the lack of EBIT and EBITDA figures for the current year limits the analysis of operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
The company exhibits a robust balance sheet with zero total debt reported in the latest year, significantly improving from previous years. The equity ratio stands at 7.37%, indicating a strong reliance on liabilities, which is typical for the banking industry. The return on equity is substantial at 13.1%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds, though it is slightly lower than previous periods.
Cash Flow
Paragon Banking Group PLC's cash flow is exceptionally strong, with operating cash flow exceeding net income significantly, providing a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio. Free cash flow has shown consistent growth, bolstering the company's financial flexibility and capacity to reinvest or return capital to shareholders.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue870.70M1.26B501.20M455.10M779.40M354.50M
Gross Profit248.60M0.00501.20M455.10M604.90M361.30M
EBITDA259.00M256.50M260.40M207.50M423.40M220.00M
Net Income180.30M180.30M186.00M153.90M313.60M164.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets19.93B19.93B19.27B18.42B16.65B15.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments0.000.002.53B2.99B1.93B1.38B
Total Debt1.71B1.71B1.01B3.10B4.02B4.46B
Total Liabilities18.51B18.51B17.85B17.01B15.24B13.90B
Stockholders Equity1.42B1.42B1.42B1.41B1.42B1.24B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-486.30M327.80M2.21B2.17B1.17B873.80M
Operating Cash Flow-485.00M329.10M2.22B2.17B1.17B878.10M
Investing Cash Flow-627.00M-911.10M-424.70M-3.10M-2.40M-4.30M
Financing Cash Flow976.00M446.00M-2.26B-1.10B-595.60M-1.44B

Paragon Banking Group PLC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price881.00
Price Trends
50DMA
834.81
Positive
100DMA
850.53
Positive
200DMA
860.13
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
11.36
Negative
RSI
61.80
Neutral
STOCH
56.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:PAG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 881 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 860.60, above the 50-day MA of 834.81, and above the 200-day MA of 860.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:PAG.

Paragon Banking Group PLC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
£246.34M10.596.47%2.66%9.09%-9.36%
68
Neutral
£2.24B8.9412.04%5.34%-7.30%-27.83%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
65
Neutral
£1.66B9.6612.70%4.74%-4.98%3.02%
62
Neutral
£838.92M7.919.14%-29.12%964.19%
59
Neutral
£142.44M8.786.22%5.68%1.68%-46.69%
49
Neutral
£291.68M-3.77-16.30%-3.77%-147.20%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:PAG
Paragon Banking Group PLC
881.00
220.60
33.40%
GB:ARBB
Arbuthnot Banking
880.00
68.16
8.40%
GB:MTRO
Metro Bank
124.60
34.40
38.14%
GB:OSB
OSB Group PLC
630.00
288.97
84.73%
GB:VANQ
Vanquis Banking Group
115.00
69.00
150.00%
GB:STB
Secure Trust Bank
1,320.00
983.59
292.38%

Paragon Banking Group PLC Corporate Events

Stock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Continues £50m Buyback With 80,000-Share Purchase
Positive
Jan 5, 2026

Paragon Banking Group PLC has repurchased 80,000 of its £1 ordinary shares on 5 January 2026 through Jefferies International as part of its previously announced £50 million share buyback programme. The shares were bought at prices between 848.50p and 864.50p, with a volume-weighted average price of 857.8501p, and are being held in treasury, taking the company’s treasury holdings to 4,786,428 shares and leaving 192,618,532 ordinary shares in issue, which now represents the total voting rights for shareholders under UK disclosure rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Hold with a £924.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Total
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026

Paragon Banking Group PLC has confirmed that, as of 31 December 2025, its issued share capital comprises 197,404,960 ordinary shares, of which 4,706,428 are held in treasury, leaving 192,698,532 voting shares in circulation. The updated voting rights figure provides the reference denominator shareholders must use to assess and report any notifiable holdings or changes under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, reinforcing regulatory transparency and ensuring investors have clarity on the company’s capital and governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Continues £50m Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights
Neutral
Dec 19, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC has repurchased 166,751 of its £1 ordinary shares on 19 December 2025 through Jefferies International as part of its ongoing share buyback programme of up to £50 million, paying a volume-weighted average price of 879.1490 pence per share. Following this latest tranche, Paragon holds 4,706,428 shares in treasury and has 192,698,532 ordinary shares in issue, a figure that defines the company’s total voting rights and provides the reference point for investors monitoring their disclosure obligations under UK transparency rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Buys Back Further Shares Under £50m Programme
Positive
Dec 18, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued executing its up to £50 million share buyback programme, repurchasing 162,679 ordinary £1.00 shares on 18 December 2025 via Jefferies International at a volume-weighted average price of 870.6807p, with trades executed across multiple venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHI-X, BATE, Aquis and Turquoise. Following this latest tranche, the bank now holds 4,554,600 shares in treasury and has 192,850,360 ordinary shares in issue carrying voting rights, a reduction in free float that can enhance earnings per share and signals ongoing capital management aimed at returning surplus capital to shareholders while potentially supporting the stock’s valuation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Share Buyback Initiative
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC announced the purchase of 156,117 of its ordinary shares, ranging between 859.00p and 871.00p per share, as part of its £50 million share buyback program launched on December 3, 2025. This action enhances shareholder value, reduces outstanding shares, and aligns with broader market strategies, marking an important step in improving operational efficiency and consolidating its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Executes Share Buyback
Positive
Dec 16, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 149,206 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 859.0374 pence per share. This move is part of a larger £50 million buyback initiative announced earlier in December 2025, aimed at optimizing the company’s capital structure and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50 Million Share Buyback
Positive
Dec 15, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 143,984 of its ordinary shares through Jefferies International Limited. This transaction is part of a larger £50 million buyback initiative announced earlier in December 2025. The buyback is intended to optimize the company’s capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting a strategic move to strengthen its market position and provide returns to its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Initiates Share Buyback Program
Positive
Dec 12, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC announced the purchase of 136,576 of its ordinary shares as part of a £50 million share buyback program. This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure, reflecting confidence in its financial stability and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Executes Share Buyback
Positive
Dec 11, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC has announced the purchase of 127,615 of its ordinary shares as part of a share buyback program valued up to £50 million. This transaction, executed through Jefferies International Limited, reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value. Following this purchase, Paragon holds 3,806,038 shares in treasury, with 193,598,922 shares remaining in issue, which also represents the total voting rights. The buyback could signal confidence in the company’s financial health and may impact its stock valuation positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Executes Share Buyback Program
Positive
Dec 10, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 120,994 ordinary shares at an average price of 806.0898 pence per share. This buyback is part of a larger £50 million program announced earlier, and it reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Initiates Share Buyback Program
Positive
Dec 9, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 116,210 of its ordinary shares at a volume-weighted average price of 813.2133 pence per share. This transaction, part of a larger £50 million buyback initiative announced earlier, reflects the company’s efforts to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Other
Paragon Banking Group CFO Increases Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
Dec 9, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC announced a transaction involving its Chief Financial Officer, Richard Woodman, who purchased 15,000 ordinary shares in the company. This move, conducted through a Self-Invested Personal Pension, highlights a significant personal investment by a key executive, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Initiates Share Buyback Program
Positive
Dec 8, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC has executed a share buyback program, purchasing 112,000 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 802.1076 pence per share. This move is part of a larger £50 million buyback initiative announced earlier in December 2025, aimed at consolidating the company’s share capital and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Paragon Banking Group Aligns Executive Bonuses with Shareholder Interests
Positive
Dec 4, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC announced the acquisition of ordinary shares for its Executive Directors as part of their annual bonus arrangements for FY 2025. This move aligns with the company’s remuneration policy, requiring a mix of cash and shares with a one-year retention period, indicating a commitment to aligning executive interests with shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Paragon Banking Group Reports Strong 2025 Financial Performance and Advances Digital Transformation
Positive
Dec 3, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC reported robust financial results for the year ending September 2025, with a 17.5% return on tangible equity and an 8.7% increase in dividends. The company announced a £50 million share buy-back for FY26, reflecting its strong capital position and commitment to shareholder returns. Paragon has made significant progress in its digital transformation, launching the Spring app-based savings brand and a digital buy-to-let origination platform, which have enhanced customer experience and operational efficiency. Despite an uncertain external environment, Paragon remains optimistic about growth opportunities in its specialist markets, supported by a strong capital base and a clear strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £931.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group PLC Updates on Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC has announced its capital structure as of November 30, 2025, which consists of 197,404,960 ordinary shares, with 3,334,478 held in treasury. Consequently, the total number of voting rights in the company is 194,070,482. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, impacting how they manage their interests in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £931.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group PLC Updates on Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Oct 31, 2025

Paragon Banking Group PLC has announced its current capital structure, which includes 197,404,960 ordinary shares, with 3,354,095 held in Treasury, resulting in 194,050,865 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to assess their interests in the company and comply with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAG) stock is a Buy with a £931.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Paragon Banking Group PLC stock, see the GB:PAG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 04, 2026