Paragon Banking Group PLC (GB:PAG)
LSE:PAG
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Paragon Banking Group PLC
(LSE:PAG)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
782.00 p
▼(-3.46% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:01/04/26
Overall score reflects attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and supportive technical positioning above major moving averages. These positives are tempered by financial risks from rising leverage and notable volatility in revenue and cash flow, which reduce confidence in the stability of recent performance.
Positive Factors
Stable net interest income model
Paragon's business is structurally driven by net interest income: it earns spreads between loans (buy-to-let, SME) and retail deposits. This asset-liability model creates recurring revenue and predictable earning capacity over months, supporting durable cash generation if margins and loan volumes remain steady.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A materially higher debt-to-equity ratio increases financial leverage and sensitivity to funding costs. For a mortgage-focused lender this raises regulatory and liquidity risk, reduces capital flexibility for growth or losses, and makes returns more vulnerable to interest rate and credit-pressure shifts over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable net interest income model
Paragon's business is structurally driven by net interest income: it earns spreads between loans (buy-to-let, SME) and retail deposits. This asset-liability model creates recurring revenue and predictable earning capacity over months, supporting durable cash generation if margins and loan volumes remain steady.
Read all positive factors
Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.39B
Dividend Yield4.74%
Average Volume (3M)354.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.4
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth-4.98%
EPS Growth3.02%
CountryUK
Employees1,411
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.90
Shares Outstanding191,201,860
10 Day Avg. Volume291,721
30 Day Avg. Volume354,483
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.21
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio5.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£1,000.00Price Target Upside23.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)£506.32M
Paragon Banking Group PLC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Paragon Banking Group PLC provides financial services in the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Mortgage Lending, Commercial Lending, and Idem Capital. The Mortgages Lending segment offers buy-to-let, owner-occupied first and seco...
How the Company Makes Money
Paragon Banking Group PLC primarily makes money by earning net interest income: it pays interest on customer deposits (its funding base) and receives higher interest income from loans it originates and holds on its balance sheet (e.g., buy-to-let ...
Paragon Banking Group PLC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.24B | 501.20M | 455.10M | 779.40M | 354.50M |
| Gross Profit | 452.40M | 501.20M | 455.10M | 604.90M | 361.30M |
| EBITDA | 272.30M | 260.40M | 207.50M | 423.40M | 220.00M |
| Net Income | 180.30M | 186.00M | 153.90M | 313.60M | 164.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 19.93B | 19.27B | 18.42B | 16.65B | 15.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 2.53B | 2.99B | 1.93B | 1.38B |
| Total Debt | 1.71B | 1.01B | 3.10B | 4.02B | 4.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.51B | 17.85B | 17.01B | 15.24B | 13.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.42B | 1.42B | 1.41B | 1.42B | 1.24B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 327.80M | 2.21B | 2.17B | 1.17B | 873.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 329.10M | 2.22B | 2.17B | 1.17B | 878.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -911.10M | -424.70M | -3.10M | -2.40M | -4.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 446.00M | -2.26B | -1.10B | -595.60M | -1.44B |
Paragon Banking Group PLC Technical Analysis
Negative
810.00
Price Trends
758.54
Negative
803.67
Negative
815.64
Negative
Market Momentum
-11.74
Positive
41.70
Neutral
42.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:PAG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 810 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 745.95, above the 50-day MA of 758.54, and below the 200-day MA of 815.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -11.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:PAG.
Paragon Banking Group PLC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | £1.71B | 4.00 | 13.26% | 5.34% | -8.38% | -2.55% | |
70 Outperform | £137.58M | 3.30 | 6.53% | 5.68% | -4.79% | -28.34% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | £1.39B | 5.39 | 12.75% | 4.74% | -4.98% | 3.02% | |
58 Neutral | £969.73M | 5.16 | 5.16% | ― | -10.71% | 23.10% | |
54 Neutral | £240.16M | 64.73 | 4.70% | 2.66% | 0.49% | -11.39% | |
53 Neutral | £276.46M | 24.71 | 1.89% | ― | 0.07% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:PAG
Paragon Banking Group PLC
727.00
-138.02
-15.96%
GB:ARBB
Arbuthnot Banking
830.00
-46.84
-5.34%
GB:MTRO
Metro Bank
144.80
24.00
19.87%
GB:OSB
OSB Group PLC
491.60
38.34
8.46%
GB:VANQ
Vanquis Banking Group
106.60
22.70
27.06%
GB:STB
Secure Trust Bank
1,250.00
586.99
88.53%
Paragon Banking Group PLC Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Total
Neutral
Apr 30, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has confirmed that as of 30 April 2026 its issued share capital comprises 197,404,960 ordinary shares, of which 9,176,056 are held in treasury. This leaves a total of 188,228,904 voting rights in the company, a key refere...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Updates Market on Total Voting Rights
Neutral
Mar 31, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has reported that, as of 31 March 2026, its issued share capital comprises 197,404,960 ordinary shares, of which 9,176,056 are held in treasury. This leaves 188,228,904 ordinary shares carrying voting rights, a figure tha...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Completes £50m Share Buyback and Updates Voting Rights
Positive
Mar 26, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has completed its £50 million share buyback programme, repurchasing ordinary £1.00 shares via Jefferies International between 23 and 26 March 2026 at prices mostly in the mid-700 pence range. The programme’...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Adds 400,000 Shares to Treasury in Ongoing Buyback
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has repurchased 400,000 ordinary £1.00 shares between 16 and 20 March 2026 through Jefferies International, under its previously announced £50 million share buyback programme. Following these transactions, the b...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Paragon Director Takes Independent Role at Commercial International Bank Egypt
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has announced that non-executive director Tanvi Davda has been appointed as an independent non-executive director of Commercial International Bank (Egypt) S.A.E., effective 15 March 2026. The additional board role broaden...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Expands £50m Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing 523,000 ordinary £1 shares between 9 and 13 March 2026 through Jefferies International at volume-weighted average prices ranging from about...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Discloses Director Share Purchase by Non-Executive Board Member
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has disclosed a director share dealing involving non-executive director Peter Hill, in line with UK Market Abuse Regulation reporting requirements. Hill purchased 382 ordinary shares at £7.8354 each on 11 March 2026 ...
Other
Paragon Executives Exercise Long-Term Share Awards and Boost Equity Stakes
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has disclosed that chief executive Nigel Terrington and chief financial officer Richard Woodman have exercised nil-cost share options granted under the Paragon Performance Share Plan 2013, relating to awards made in Decem...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Discloses Share Purchase by Non-Executive Director
Neutral
Mar 10, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC reported a director share dealing involving non-executive director and PDMR Graeme Yorston. He purchased 500 ordinary shares of £1.00 each at a price of £7.866 per share on 10 March 2026 on the London Stock Exch...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Continues £50m Buyback With 120,000-Share Purchase
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has repurchased 120,000 ordinary shares at a volume-weighted average price of 784.8013p as part of its up to £50 million share buyback programme launched in December 2025. Following this transaction, the bank now hol...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Discloses Share Purchase by Non-Executive Director
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC reported a director share dealing, disclosing that non-executive director and PDMR Zoe Howorth purchased 1,869 ordinary shares at a price of £7.984225 per share on 6 March 2026. Following this transaction on the Lond...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Continues £50m Buyback With 120,000-Share Purchase
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued to execute its previously announced £50 million share buyback programme, repurchasing 120,000 ordinary £1 shares on 5 March 2026 through Jefferies International at a volume-weighted average price o...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Paragon Banking Grants New LTIP Awards and Restructures Executive Shareholdings
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Paragon Banking Group has granted long-term incentive plan awards in the form of nil-cost options to chief executive Nigel Terrington and chief financial officer Richard Woodman under its 2023 Paragon Performance Share Plan. The awards, based on a...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Buyback With New Share Repurchase
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued its previously announced £50m share buyback programme with the repurchase of 120,000 ordinary shares on 4 March 2026, executed through Jefferies International at a volume-weighted average price of about...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsShareholder Meetings
Paragon Banking Wins Strong Shareholder Backing at AGM as All Resolutions Pass
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC reported that all resolutions at its annual general meeting were passed on a poll, reflecting broad shareholder support for the board and its strategy. Investors overwhelmingly backed the receipt of the 2025 annual report...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Continues £50m Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued its previously announced share buyback programme of up to £50 million, repurchasing 120,000 ordinary £1.00 shares on 3 March 2026 through Jefferies International at a volume-weighted average price ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Buyback With New Share Repurchase
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has repurchased 70,000 of its £1 ordinary shares on 2 March 2026 through Jefferies International as part of its previously announced £50 million share buyback programme. The shares were bought at prices between ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
Paragon Banking Group has confirmed its current share capital structure and voting rights in line with UK disclosure rules. As of 28 February 2026, the company has 197,404,960 ordinary shares in issue, of which 7,093,066 are held in treasury, leav...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Buyback With 70,000-Share Purchase
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued execution of its up to £50 million share buyback programme, repurchasing 70,000 ordinary shares on 27 February 2026 via Jefferies International at a volume-weighted average price of 860.5946 pence. Foll...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Buys Back 70,000 Shares in Ongoing £50m Programme
Neutral
Feb 26, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued its previously announced £50 million share buyback programme, repurchasing 70,000 ordinary £1.00 shares on 26 February 2026 through Jefferies International at a volume-weighted average price of 862...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Share Buyback With Latest 70,000-Share Purchase
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued to execute its previously announced share buyback programme of up to £50 million, repurchasing 70,000 ordinary £1 shares on 25 February 2026 through Jefferies International at a volume-weighted ave...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Group Advances £50m Buyback With 70,000-Share Purchase
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme of up to £50 million, repurchasing 70,000 ordinary shares on 24 February 2026 through Jefferies International at a volume-weighted average pric...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Continues £50m Buyback, Updates Voting Rights
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued execution of its up to £50 million share buyback programme, repurchasing 70,000 ordinary £1 shares on 23 February 2026 via Jefferies International at a volume-weighted average price of 860.2210 pen...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Paragon Banking Continues £50m Buyback With 70,000-Share Purchase
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Paragon Banking Group PLC has continued its previously announced £50 million share buyback programme, repurchasing 70,000 ordinary £1.00 shares on 20 February 2026 through Jefferies International at a volume-weighted average price of 865...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.