Metro Bank (MTRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £899.52M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.53
• Revenue Growth: -29.12%
• EPS Growth: 964.19%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 3,449
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 673,292,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 946,774
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,084,048
• PEG Ratio: -0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £175.00
• Price Target Upside: 31.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: 142.00p ▲(6.61% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile cash generation despite improving revenues and reported profitability. Offsetting this, technical momentum is positive and valuation looks inexpensive on P/E, with recent corporate updates and insider buying providing additional (but secondary) support.

Positive Factors

Revenue Recovery

A strong top-line rebound reflects renewed customer activity and loan/fee growth that can underpin medium-term stability. Sustained revenue recovery improves scale economics, supports reinvestment in products and branches, and provides a foundation for durable margin and profitability improvements if sustained.

Return to Profitability

Consecutive profitable years signal a structural turnaround from prior losses, reducing reliance on external capital and improving internal capital generation. Persistent profitability enhances strategic optionality to grow lending, shore up reserves, and gradually rebuild shareholder returns over the next 2–6 months if the trend continues.

Capital flexibility and insider alignment

MREL reclassification improves regulatory capital structure flexibility, which can lower constraints on lending and loss-absorbing buffers. Insider buying signals management confidence and alignment with shareholders, supporting long-term governance and the credibility of strategic execution during the recovery phase.

Negative Factors

Volatile and negative cash generation

Large negative operating and free cash flows materially weaken funding resilience and increase dependence on wholesale funding or capital raises. Persistent cash conversion volatility impairs the bank's ability to fund lending growth, cover shocks, and build capital organically, raising medium-term solvency and liquidity risks.

Low returns on equity

Sub-4% ROE indicates the balance sheet is not delivering attractive shareholder value, constraining the bank’s ability to retain earnings to support growth. Over several months this limits strategic flexibility, may necessitate higher risk or leverage to lift returns, and weakens resilience versus peers.

Thin net margins

Narrow net margins leave limited buffer against credit losses, rising funding costs, or margin compression. With modest margins, any adverse credit or interest-rate moves can quickly erode profitability, slowing capital build-up and making sustainable dividend or growth policies more difficult to maintain over the medium term.

Metro Bank Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Metro Bank PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides retail and commercial banking services in the United Kingdom. The company offers personal banking products and services, including current, cash, and savings accounts; residential mortgages; credit cards and personal loans; pet insurance; and safe deposit box services. It also provides business banking products and services comprising business bank, commercial and community current, foreign currency, and insolvency practitioner accounts; deposit accounts, including business and community instant access deposit and fixed term deposit, business notice account, client premium and flexible client term deposit, and business loan calculator accounts; business and commercial loans and overdrafts, asset and invoice financing, bounce back loan, and recovery loan scheme. In addition, the company offers private banking services, such as private bank, saving, foreign currency, and money management accounts; and partnership loans, overdrafts, unsecured consumer lending, automotive finance, and digital lending products for SMEs. Metro Bank PLC was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Metro Bank generates revenue primarily through its net interest income and fee-based services. The bank earns money by offering loans and mortgages to individuals and businesses, charging interest on these financial products. The difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on customer deposits constitutes its net interest income, which is a significant revenue stream. Additionally, Metro Bank earns fees from services such as account maintenance, foreign currency exchange, and transaction processing. The bank also benefits from partnerships with insurance providers and other financial service firms, earning commission-based income. Its focus on customer service and convenience, including extended hours and seven-day branch operations, aims to attract and retain customers, significantly contributing to its earnings.

Metro Bank Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Improving income trends with a sharp 2024 revenue rebound and positive net income in 2023–2024, but profitability remains thin and ROE is low. The biggest weakness is cash-flow quality: operating cash flow and free cash flow swung sharply negative in 2024, highlighting elevated volatility and funding/cash conversion risk.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded sharply in 2024 (up ~69% vs. 2023), extending a multi-year top-line recovery. Profitability has also improved versus the heavy losses in 2019–2022, with net income positive in both 2023 and 2024; however, net margins remain thin (~4–5%), indicating limited earnings cushion for a regional bank. Overall, the trajectory is improving, but profitability is still modest and not yet consistently strong across the cycle.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears moderate, with debt running at roughly 0.6x equity across recent years (2024 ~0.57x), suggesting no obvious over-gearing from the provided debt and equity figures. That said, the asset base declined meaningfully in 2024 versus 2023, and returns on equity remain low (~3.6% in 2024), implying the balance sheet is not currently generating robust shareholder returns. Net worth is stable-to-improving, but the return profile is still a key weakness.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the primary concern: operating cash flow swung from +£628m in 2023 to -£1.385bn in 2024, and free cash flow similarly fell to about -£1.426bn. This follows prior volatility, with large negative cash flow in 2022 and 2020 despite periods of strength (notably 2021). The sharp 2024 reversal signals elevated uncertainty in cash conversion and funding dynamics, which materially weakens overall quality despite reported profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	602.20M	962.80M	615.70M	483.60M	392.80M	300.60M
Gross Profit	454.80M	405.30M	615.70M	483.60M	392.80M	300.60M
EBITDA	74.10M	0.00	573.10M	445.40M	352.60M	257.40M
Net Income	106.00M	42.50M	29.50M	-72.70M	-248.20M	-301.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.43B	17.58B	22.25B	22.12B	22.59B	22.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.34B	2.81B	3.89B	1.96B	3.57B	2.99B
Total Debt	874.00M	675.00M	694.00M	571.00M	588.00M	600.00M
Total Liabilities	14.97B	16.40B	21.11B	21.16B	21.55B	21.29B
Stockholders Equity	1.46B	1.18B	1.13B	956.00M	1.03B	1.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.06B	-1.43B	616.00M	-1.21B	2.81B	-583.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-2.01B	-1.39B	628.00M	-1.19B	2.85B	-554.00M
Investing Cash Flow	353.00M	327.00M	1.02B	-402.00M	-2.25B	-956.00M
Financing Cash Flow	104.50M	-22.00M	291.00M	-25.00M	-29.00M	1.51B

Metro Bank Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 133.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MTRO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 133.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.85, above the 50-day MA of 118.38, and above the 200-day MA of 118.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:MTRO.

Metro Bank Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LLOY	69 Neutral	£61.40B	14.89	8.08%	3.41%	-22.85%	-21.12%
STB	68 Neutral	£273.40M	11.76	6.47%	2.66%	9.09%	-9.36%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
PAG	65 Neutral	£1.64B	9.58	12.70%	4.74%	-4.98%	3.02%
MTRO	62 Neutral	£899.52M	8.42	9.14%	―	-29.12%	964.19%
ARBB	59 Neutral	£142.44M	8.78	6.22%	5.68%	1.68%	-46.69%
CBG	51 Neutral	$780.51M	-7.69	-9.28%	―	-15.79%	-211.91%

Metro Bank Corporate Events

Metro Bank Confirms Total Voting Rights and Share Capital

Metro Bank Holdings PLC has confirmed that as of 31 December 2025 it has 673,292,488 ordinary shares in issue, each carrying voting rights, and holds no shares in treasury. The disclosed share count establishes the denominator shareholders must use to assess and report any notifiable holdings or changes under the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, underscoring the bank’s ongoing compliance with regulatory reporting requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTRO) stock is a Hold with a £127.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metro Bank stock, see the GB:MTRO Stock Forecast page.

Gilinski-Linked Spaldy Investments Buys 500,000 Shares in Metro Bank

Metro Bank Holdings plc has disclosed a share purchase by Spaldy Investments Limited, a company wholly owned by businessman Jaime Gilinski Bacal, who is closely associated with a shareholder-nominated non-executive director of the bank. Spaldy Investments acquired 500,000 Metro Bank ordinary shares on 23 December 2025 on the London Stock Exchange at a price of £1.2093 per share, signalling continued investment interest from a key associated shareholder and modestly reinforcing insider confidence in the lender’s equity.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTRO) stock is a Buy with a £175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metro Bank stock, see the GB:MTRO Stock Forecast page.

Metro Bank Reclassified as Transfer Firm Under MREL Regime

Metro Bank has received formal confirmation from the Bank of England that it will be reclassified as a transfer firm under the UK’s Minimum Requirement for Own Funds and Eligible Liabilities (MREL) regime from 1 January 2026, aligning its MREL with its current minimum capital requirements of 13.7% including buffers and 9.2% excluding buffers. The bank’s chief executive, Daniel Frumkin, said the reclassification should provide greater capital flexibility, supporting increased lending to the UK economy and potentially enhancing shareholder value, with further details due alongside full-year results in March 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTRO) stock is a Buy with a £175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metro Bank stock, see the GB:MTRO Stock Forecast page.

Metro Bank’s Board Chair Acquires Shares, Signaling Confidence

Metro Bank Holdings PLC announced the joint purchase of 25,000 ordinary shares by Robert Sharpe, the Non-Executive Director and Board Chair, and Vanessa Sharpe. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, signifies a notable investment by key figures within the company, potentially reflecting confidence in the company’s future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTRO) stock is a Buy with a £175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metro Bank stock, see the GB:MTRO Stock Forecast page.

Metro Bank Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance and Strategic Growth

Metro Bank has reported a strong financial performance in its third-quarter 2025 trading update, with continued growth in profitability and a 12% increase in target lending segments compared to the first half of 2025. The bank has successfully maintained the lowest cost of deposits among UK High Street banks and has positioned itself for future growth by optimizing its asset rotation strategy. The bank’s strategic focus on corporate, commercial, SME, and specialist mortgages has resulted in a robust credit-approved pipeline, providing significant growth momentum into the next quarter. Additionally, Metro Bank expects to be reclassified as a transfer firm under the Bank of England’s new policy, which will impact its capital requirements positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTRO) stock is a Buy with a £155.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metro Bank stock, see the GB:MTRO Stock Forecast page.

Metro Bank Updates Shareholders on Total Voting Rights

Metro Bank Holdings PLC has announced that as of 31 October 2025, it has 673,290,264 ordinary shares in issue, each carrying voting rights. This update is in accordance with the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, allowing shareholders to calculate their interests in the company. The announcement underscores Metro Bank’s commitment to regulatory compliance and transparency, which is crucial for maintaining stakeholder trust and confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MTRO) stock is a Buy with a £155.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Metro Bank stock, see the GB:MTRO Stock Forecast page.