Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £280.52M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.47
• Revenue Growth: -3.77%
• EPS Growth: -147.20%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 1,269
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 256,493,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,545,119
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,325,363
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £514.60M

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: 112.00p ▲(2.75% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet leverage and weak technical momentum, despite a clear earnings recovery. Earnings-call guidance and capital strength provide support, but valuation (high P/E) and continued execution/credit risks limit upside confidence.

Positive Factors

Return to profitability and revenue rebound

A material revenue rebound and a return to positive net income in 2025 demonstrate the franchise can re‑generate earnings after a multi‑year trough. Sustained revenue growth and the ability to convert it to profit improve operational resilience and provide a foundation for multi‑year ROTE recovery if credit and costs remain controlled.

Stable retail deposit funding and balance growth

High share of retail deposits (~90% of funding) and strong balance growth materially reduce reliance on wholesale markets, lowering funding fragility. Durable retail deposit funding supports incremental lending scale, liquidity buffers and interest margin stability versus peers that are more reliant on short‑term wholesale funding.

Material transformation savings and efficiency program

Substantive, repeatable cost savings from the Gateway transformation lower structural operating costs and improve cost/income ratio potential. Continued delivery of programmable savings enhances margin sustainability, funds investment in growth initiatives and reduces the scale required for break‑even in riskier product lines.

Negative Factors

High and rising leverage

A debt‑to‑equity ratio near 7x materially increases sensitivity to credit losses and funding stress, constraining strategic flexibility. Elevated leverage raises the capital required to support growth, amplifies upside/downside to ROTE, and increases the stakes of execution on impairment and margin assumptions over the next 2–3 years.

Vehicle Finance remains loss‑making and high cost

A structurally loss‑making vehicle finance arm with very high cost intensity drains group earnings until it scales post‑platform delivery. This creates execution risk: if Gateway or scale benefits are delayed or weaker than expected, the business will continue to depress consolidated margins and cash generation for multiple quarters.

Credit coverage and expected rising impairments with growth

Planned aggressive balance growth coupled with management guidance for higher impairments means credit expenses are likely to rise, compressing net margins and straining capital conversion. Lower coverage ratios alongside expected higher ECL headline a durable risk that credit performance could worsen before scale benefits materialize.

Vanquis Banking Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vanquis Banking Group plc provides personal credit products to the non-standard lending market in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. It offers credit cards products, and unsecured personal loans products. The company also provides vehicle finance for cars, motorbikes, and light commercial vehicles. The company was formerly known as Provident Financial plc and changed its name to Vanquis Banking Group plc in March 2023. Vanquis Banking Group plc was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Bradford, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Vanquis Banking Group makes money primarily through the interest and fees charged on its credit products, such as credit cards and personal loans. The company generates revenue by extending credit to consumers who may not have access to traditional banking services, charging interest on outstanding balances, and applying fees for services such as late payments or exceeding credit limits. Additionally, Vanquis benefits from partnerships with retailers and other businesses to offer co-branded credit solutions, which can drive customer acquisition and increase transaction volumes. The company also earns interest income from its savings products and may generate additional revenue through investments and financial advisory services. Key factors contributing to its earnings include effective risk management, customer retention strategies, and the ability to scale its operations to reach more customers.

Vanquis Banking Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement is recovering (2025 revenue +33% and return to profit), but net margins remain thin and earnings have been volatile across 2022–2025. The balance sheet is the main drag with very high and rising leverage (debt-to-equity ~7.0x by 2025). Cash flow is generally supportive with positive FCF in 2023–2025, but it fell sharply in 2025 and has been uneven historically.

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (annual +33.4%) after a weak 2024 (annual -23.5%). Profitability also improved materially: 2025 delivered positive net income (£8.7M) versus a large loss in 2024, and operating profitability remained solid with a healthy 2025 EBIT margin (~25.9%). The main weakness is earnings consistency—net income has swung from profit (2022) to losses (2023–2024) and back to a small profit (2025), with net margin still thin in 2025 (~1.4%).

Balance Sheet

Leverage is high and trending worse: debt-to-equity rose from ~3.2x (2022) to ~7.0x (2025), which limits flexibility and increases sensitivity to credit performance and funding conditions. Equity has also declined from 2022 levels, and returns on equity have been volatile (negative in 2023–2024, slightly positive in 2025). The positive is that the company remains equity-capitalized (positive equity), but the balance sheet risk profile is elevated versus a typical comfort level.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been positive in most years, with free cash flow positive in 2023–2025 and particularly strong in 2023–2024, supporting liquidity. However, free cash flow dropped sharply in 2025 (about -48% year over year), and 2022 saw meaningful negative operating and free cash flow, highlighting volatility. Free cash flow roughly matched net income in 2023–2025, which is a supportive quality signal, but the overall cash-flow profile is uneven.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	605.70M	458.50M	599.20M	539.50M	534.60M
Gross Profit	320.80M	222.20M	325.00M	480.70M	478.70M
EBITDA	174.00M	0.00	159.40M	205.40M	0.00
Net Income	8.70M	-119.30M	-6.00M	77.40M	-32.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.94B	3.38B	3.21B	2.66B	2.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.06B	1.01B	748.70M	464.90M	717.70M
Total Debt	3.41B	2.87B	2.57B	1.97B	1.90B
Total Liabilities	3.45B	2.93B	2.63B	2.05B	2.09B
Stockholders Equity	487.30M	441.20M	583.10M	614.70M	631.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	89.70M	438.00M	581.40M	-237.70M	137.00M
Operating Cash Flow	93.00M	440.20M	584.70M	-204.90M	163.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-270.30M	2.10M	-18.80M	-32.80M	-22.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-21.90M	-181.30M	527.20M	-12.50M	-345.00M

Vanquis Banking Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 109.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:VANQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 109 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 122.54, below the 50-day MA of 119.78, and below the 200-day MA of 110.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.95 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:VANQ.

Vanquis Banking Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUS	74 Outperform	£256.99M	12.88	8.41%	5.33%	-11.17%	6.04%
TRU	73 Outperform	£112.42M	17.10	―	―	203.09%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
IPF	67 Neutral	£539.45M	9.91	14.70%	4.39%	-7.52%	50.23%
FCH	66 Neutral	£401.90M	23.27	3.93%	―	7.90%	―
ASAI	61 Neutral	£215.00M	6.55	39.40%	4.74%	―	―
VANQ	53 Neutral	£280.52M	-3.63	-16.30%	―	-3.77%	-147.20%

Vanquis Banking Group Corporate Events

Vanquis CFO Dave Watts Buys 30,000 Shares in Insider Deal

Vanquis Banking Group has disclosed that its chief financial officer, Dave Watts, has purchased 30,000 ordinary shares in the company on the London Stock Exchange. The transaction, executed on 3 March 2026 at a price of £1.08996 per share, represents a market purchase by a key member of the senior leadership team, signalling personal financial commitment to the bank and providing investors with additional transparency on insider dealings.

The share purchase, formally notified to the market on 4 March 2026, falls under regulatory requirements for reporting dealings by persons discharging managerial responsibilities. Such transactions are closely watched by shareholders and analysts as potential indicators of management’s confidence in the company’s prospects and alignment of executive interests with those of investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:VANQ) stock is a Hold with a £114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vanquis Banking Group stock, see the GB:VANQ Stock Forecast page.

Vanquis Banking Group Confirms Current Share Capital and Voting Rights

Vanquis Banking Group has confirmed that, as of 27 February 2026, its issued share capital comprises 256,493,758 ordinary shares, each carrying voting rights, and that it holds no ordinary shares in treasury. The company highlighted that this total share count should be used by shareholders as the reference denominator when assessing whether they must notify any holdings or changes in holdings under the Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:VANQ) stock is a Hold with a £114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vanquis Banking Group stock, see the GB:VANQ Stock Forecast page.

Vanquis Banking Group swings back to profit as growth and cost cuts take hold

Vanquis Banking Group has returned to statutory profitability for 2025, posting a profit before tax of £8.3m after a £138m loss a year earlier, as stronger interest-earning balance growth, cost reductions and improved credit quality lifted performance. The bank accelerated gross customer interest-earning balances by 22% to £2.82bn, led by second charge mortgages and renewed credit card growth, while deliberately shrinking vehicle finance ahead of a new platform launch.

Capital was reinforced through an Additional Tier 1 issuance, leaving the CET1 ratio at 16.5%, providing headroom to support its growth-focused strategy. Operating costs fell by a third to £265.5m, helped by £28.8m of transformation savings and a sharp drop in complaint costs, which were further supported by lower unmerited claims after changes to the Ombudsman fee structure.

Risk-adjusted income rose 5% to £273.8m as the cost of risk eased to 7.3%, reflecting stronger underwriting, better model performance and resilient customer payment behaviour. Liquidity remained robust with an LCR of 306% and retail deposits accounting for nearly 90% of funding, underscoring the strength of Vanquis’s funding model.

The group reported limited exposure to the FCA’s proposed motor finance compensation scheme, booking only a £3m provision due to the absence of discretionary or tied commission arrangements. Management highlighted substantial progress on its “Gateway” technology transformation, which is already improving decisioning and efficiency, and positioned the bank to scale profitably while targeting underserved borrowers.

Vanquis has set a strategic framework built around “Serve More, Serve Responsibly and Scale Profitably” to guide capital allocation, risk management and operational efficiency. The 2025 turnaround and operational momentum underpin management’s confidence in delivering materially higher returns on tangible equity over the next two years, signalling a stronger outlook for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:VANQ) stock is a Hold with a £114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vanquis Banking Group stock, see the GB:VANQ Stock Forecast page.

Vanquis Banking Group Files 2025 Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM

Vanquis Banking Group has published its 2025 Annual Report and Financial Statements along with the formal notice of its 2026 Annual General Meeting, making both documents available via the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s National Storage Mechanism and the group’s investor website. The AGM is scheduled to take place at 10 a.m. on 6 May 2026 at Fairburn House in Bradford, and the filing fulfills the group’s regulatory disclosure obligations, giving shareholders and analysts access to detailed, unedited financial and governance information.

The publication of these documents marks a key point in the company’s reporting cycle, providing stakeholders with comprehensive insight into Vanquis Banking Group’s performance, strategy, and governance over the past year. By formally convening the AGM and ensuring public access to statutory disclosures, the group reinforces its transparency and compliance with market regulations, while setting the stage for shareholder engagement on its future direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:VANQ) stock is a Hold with a £114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vanquis Banking Group stock, see the GB:VANQ Stock Forecast page.

Vanquis Banking Group CFO Reports Routine Share Incentive Plan Dealings

Vanquis Banking Group has disclosed routine share transactions involving Chief Financial Officer Dave Watts under its Buy As You Earn Share Incentive Plan. The trustee purchased 118 ordinary shares on his behalf on 16 February at £1.27 each via the London Stock Exchange, alongside an award of 30 matching shares at nil cost.

The transactions form part of the company’s monthly Share Incentive Plan activity and are classified as initial notifications under market disclosure rules for persons discharging managerial responsibilities. The disclosure underscores Vanquis Banking Group’s adherence to regulatory transparency requirements on executive dealings in its ordinary shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:VANQ) stock is a Hold with a £114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vanquis Banking Group stock, see the GB:VANQ Stock Forecast page.

Vanquis Banking Group Sets Date for 2025 Full-Year Results and Investor Briefings

Vanquis Banking Group has announced that it will publish its 2025 full-year results on 26 February 2026 at 07:00 GMT, followed by a presentation for investors and analysts led by CEO Ian McLaughlin and CFO Dave Watts later that morning. The bank is also arranging an additional presentation via the Investor Meet Company platform on 3 March 2026, open to both existing and potential shareholders, underscoring its efforts to maintain transparent communication with the market and broaden retail investor engagement ahead of and following the results release.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:VANQ) stock is a Hold with a £114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vanquis Banking Group stock, see the GB:VANQ Stock Forecast page.

Vanquis Banking Group Confirms Voting Share Capital of 256.5 Million Shares

Vanquis Banking Group plc, a UK-focused consumer banking and credit provider, operates within the financial services industry offering banking and related financial products to retail clients. The group has announced that, as of 30 January 2026, its issued share capital comprises 256,493,758 ordinary shares with full voting rights and no shares held in treasury, a figure that shareholders should use as the reference denominator when assessing and disclosing their holdings under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, thereby ensuring accurate regulatory reporting of significant shareholdings in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:VANQ) stock is a Hold with a £114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vanquis Banking Group stock, see the GB:VANQ Stock Forecast page.

Vanquis Banking Group CFO Adds to Holding Through Share Incentive Plan

Vanquis Banking Group has disclosed that its Chief Financial Officer, Dave Watts, acquired ordinary shares in the company on 14 January 2026 through its Buy As You Earn Share Incentive Plan. Under the scheme, Watts purchased 130 partnership shares at £1.154 each via the plan’s trustee on the London Stock Exchange and received a related monthly award of 32 matching shares at nil cost, reflecting ongoing executive participation in the group’s all-employee share plan and aligning senior management’s interests more closely with those of shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:VANQ) stock is a Hold with a £114.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vanquis Banking Group stock, see the GB:VANQ Stock Forecast page.

Vanquis Banking Group Confirms Share Capital and Voting Rights Total

Vanquis Banking Group plc has confirmed that, as of 31 December 2025, its issued share capital comprises 256,493,758 ordinary shares of 20 8/11p each, all carrying voting rights, with no shares held in Treasury. The company highlighted that this total share count should be used by investors as the reference denominator for determining whether they must disclose any holdings or changes in their interest in accordance with the Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, providing clarity for market participants on the group’s current capital and voting structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:VANQ) stock is a Hold with a £118.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vanquis Banking Group stock, see the GB:VANQ Stock Forecast page.

Vanquis Banking Group CFO Participates in Share Incentive Plan

Vanquis Banking Group announced a transaction involving its Chief Financial Officer, Dave Watts, who participated in the company’s Share Incentive Plan. On December 15, 2025, the Trustee of the plan purchased ordinary shares on behalf of Watts, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to employee investment and engagement through its Buy As You Earn Share Incentive Plan. This move underscores the company’s strategy to align managerial interests with shareholder value, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence.