Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)
NASDAQ:FOSL
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Fossil Group
(NASDAQ:FOSL)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-28.57% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (sharp revenue contraction, continued losses, and negative TTM operating/free cash flow). Technicals are mixed with mildly negative momentum, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no stated dividend. The earnings call adds modest support due to cost discipline and reaffirmed profitability/FCF targets, but guidance still points to near-term sales declines and tariff/licensing uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Sustained High Gross Margin
A near-60% gross margin reflects durable pricing power and a favorable product mix (full-price selling and higher AUR). That margin cushion supports operating profitability even with top-line pressure, enabling the company to retain incremental profits from volume recovery and pricing actions over months.
Negative Factors
Top-line Contraction
Continued revenue declines and conservative guidance highlight persistent demand and channel shifts (store closures, smartwatch exit). Reduced scale compresses operating leverage, limits fixed-cost absorption, and makes margin and return recovery contingent on regaining consistent top-line growth later this year.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained High Gross Margin
A near-60% gross margin reflects durable pricing power and a favorable product mix (full-price selling and higher AUR). That margin cushion supports operating profitability even with top-line pressure, enabling the company to retain incremental profits from volume recovery and pricing actions over months.
Read all positive factors
Fossil Group (FOSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$248.23M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)818.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.46
Revenue Growth-11.35%
EPS Growth36.29%
CountryUS
Employees5,200
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLuxury Goods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.14
Shares Outstanding59,101,597
10 Day Avg. Volume1,273,334
30 Day Avg. Volume818,949
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.21
P/FCF Ratio-3.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.47
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.00Price Target Upside25.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$954.50M
Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches,...
How the Company Makes Money
Fossil Group primarily makes money by selling fashion accessories—especially watches—through two main routes: (1) wholesale sales to third-party retailers and distributors, and (2) direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales through its own e-commerce sites an...
Fossil Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational progress: healthy gross margins (59.7%), expense discipline (SG&A down 13%), improved cash/working capital (cash $81M, inventory down 14%, cash from ops >50% improved) and meaningful product and wholesale momentum (mid-single digit wholesale growth, traditional watches up high-single digits, successful Big Tic and brand collaborations). However, near-term revenue remains pressured (Q1 net sales down 6%; FY guide -4% to -6%), and there are ongoing headwinds from tariffs and royalty true-ups. Management reiterated guidance and emphasized a conservative, second-half-weighted recovery with a targeted return to growth in Q4 and breakeven free cash flow for the year. On balance, the call emphasized stronger profitability and execution momentum that outweighs the revenue headwinds and one-time/regulatory drags.Positive Updates
Healthy Gross Margin and Positive Operating Profit
Q1 gross margin of 59.7% (down 160 bps YoY) remained strong and reflected premium/full-price selling; adjusted operating income was $10 million versus $9 million a year ago, demonstrating continued profitability from the turnaround efforts.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline
Net sales in Q1 were $218 million, down 6% year-over-year. Management attributes part of the decline to the extra week in prior-year Q1 (about a 7-point unfavorable comparison) and ~280 basis points of net impact from store closures and the smartwatch exit.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Healthy Gross Margin and Positive Operating Profit
Q1 gross margin of 59.7% (down 160 bps YoY) remained strong and reflected premium/full-price selling; adjusted operating income was $10 million versus $9 million a year ago, demonstrating continued profitability from the turnaround efforts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Fossil reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance calling for worldwide net sales to decline 4%–6% (noting about 360 basis points of impact from store closures and last year’s extra week), with the year expected to be second‑half weighted and a return to top‑line growth in Q4; management continues to target adjusted operating margin of 3%–5% and to achieve breakeven free cash flow for the year, and expects gross margin in the mid‑ to upper‑50% range. Underpinning the outlook were Q1 results of $218 million in net sales (down 6% YoY), 59.7% gross margin (down 160 bps), $10 million of adjusted operating income, $81 million of cash, $28 million revolver availability, $156 million of inventory (down 14%), SG&A down 13%, seven store closures in Q1 with roughly 15 planned for 2026 (targeting ~185 stores at year end), and a >50% reduction in cash used in operations year‑over‑year; management noted no further tariff refunds are embedded in the outlook and remained cautious given geopolitical uncertainty.Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 995.85M | 1.00B | 1.14B | 1.41B | 1.68B | 1.87B |
| Gross Profit | 554.86M | 563.15M | 597.15M | 685.12M | 830.68M | 966.37M |
| EBITDA | 32.16M | 36.11M | -83.07M | -72.95M | 20.44M | 107.74M |
| Net Income | -61.57M | -78.30M | -102.67M | -157.09M | -44.16M | 25.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 654.54M | 689.30M | 763.57M | 978.03M | 1.24B | 1.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 82.36M | 95.80M | 123.60M | 117.77M | 198.73M | 250.84M |
| Total Debt | 346.17M | 282.20M | 315.83M | 388.67M | 416.36M | 375.15M |
| Total Liabilities | 571.38M | 602.50M | 626.84M | 726.29M | 835.12M | 903.36M |
| Stockholders Equity | 99.09M | 102.83M | 148.70M | 254.23M | 405.93M | 463.23M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -22.53M | -60.46M | 39.93M | -69.35M | -124.12M | 39.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -19.30M | -57.90M | 46.68M | -59.46M | -110.86M | 50.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 20.72M | 22.08M | 4.04M | -9.87M | -8.55M | 7.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.24M | -5.01M | -50.21M | -13.63M | 52.99M | -112.57M |
Fossil Group Technical Analysis
Positive
5.60
Price Trends
4.54
Negative
4.29
Positive
3.59
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Negative
50.89
Neutral
74.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.23, above the 50-day MA of 4.54, and above the 200-day MA of 3.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOSL.
Fossil Group Risk Analysis
Fossil Group disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fossil Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Fossil Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $695.82M | 34.10 | 32.00% | ― | 54.23% | 186.30% | |
72 Outperform | $535.69M | 25.34 | 6.39% | 6.79% | 4.30% | 76.21% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
48 Neutral | $128.53M | -4.22 | -36.73% | 14.29% | 5.83% | -8491.43% | |
46 Neutral | $200.95M | -1.27 | 120.31% | ― | -23.87% | -27.19% | |
45 Neutral | $248.23M | -4.27 | -52.99% | ― | -11.35% | 36.29% | |
44 Neutral | $12.99M | -1.37 | 63.94% | ― | 4.48% | -87.90% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
FOSL
Fossil Group
4.38
2.90
195.95%
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LANV
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BRLT
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Fossil Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Fossil Group Shifts Commercial Leadership After Executive Resignation
Neutral
Apr 27, 2026
On April 24, 2026, Fossil Group, Inc. announced that Chief Commercial Officer Joe Martin has decided to resign from his role to pursue other interests, with his last day set for May 8, 2026. The departure marks a leadership change in the company&#...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.