Fossil Group (FOSL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $159.20M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: -15.35%
• EPS Growth: 61.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,200
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Luxury Goods
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 53,785,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 417,392
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,023,473
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -10.15
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 73.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(4.17% Upside)

Fossil Group's overall stock score is driven by significant financial challenges, despite positive technical indicators and a favorable earnings call. The company's operational improvements and strategic initiatives are promising, but the negative valuation metrics and ongoing profitability issues weigh heavily on the score.

Positive Factors

Gross Margin Expansion

Continuous gross margin expansion indicates effective cost management and operational efficiency, which can enhance profitability and competitiveness.

Debt Refinancing

Refinancing and extending debt maturities improve liquidity and financial flexibility, supporting long-term strategic initiatives and growth.

Brand Collaborations

Successful brand collaborations enhance market presence and consumer engagement, driving sales and strengthening brand equity.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

A significant decline in revenue reflects challenges in market demand and competitive pressures, impacting long-term growth potential.

Challenges in China

Ongoing challenges in China, a key market, could hinder growth and limit market expansion opportunities in the region.

Retail Store Closures

Closing underperforming stores may reduce fixed costs, but it also signals potential market contraction and reduced retail footprint.

Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands, as well as purchases and resells branded products in non-FOSSIL branded retail stores. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW. The company sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, specialty watch and jewelry stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, and retail concessions, as well as sells its products on airlines and cruise ships. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Fossil Group generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling watches and fashion accessories both directly to consumers and through wholesale distribution channels. The company's revenue model includes retail sales from its own branded stores and e-commerce platforms, as well as sales through third-party retailers and department stores. Key revenue streams include the sale of traditional and smartwatches, jewelry, and leather goods. Fossil also benefits from partnerships with luxury brands, which allow it to produce and distribute licensed products, further diversifying its offerings. Seasonal promotions, collaborations, and limited-edition releases contribute to sales spikes, while ongoing investments in digital marketing and online sales platforms help to enhance brand visibility and reach.

Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fossil Group is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, negative net income, and high leverage. The company's financial health is under pressure due to persistent negative cash flows and a shrinking asset base relative to equity.

Income Statement

Fossil Group has been experiencing declining revenues over the past few years, with a significant drop in Gross Profit and persistent negative EBIT and Net Income. The TTM data shows a Gross Profit Margin of 54.85% and a Net Profit Margin of -10.29%, indicating operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative, reflecting struggles in maintaining sales levels.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a high Debt-to-Equity ratio, as total debt exceeds stockholders' equity, indicating high leverage. The Equity Ratio stands at 69.06% in TTM, a decrease from previous years, suggesting a shrinking asset base relative to equity. Return on Equity is negative due to consistent net losses.

Cash Flow

Fossil Group's cash flow statement highlights significant challenges. The Free Cash Flow is negative, with a decline in Operating Cash Flow over time. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is unfavorable, and the Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio indicates inefficiencies in converting sales to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.08B	1.14B	1.41B	1.68B	1.87B	1.61B
Gross Profit	596.53M	597.15M	679.58M	830.68M	966.37M	770.36M
EBITDA	-28.76M	-83.07M	-115.26M	20.44M	107.74M	-97.01M
Net Income	-59.46M	-102.67M	-157.09M	-44.16M	25.43M	-96.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	704.51M	763.57M	978.03M	1.24B	1.37B	1.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	109.90M	123.60M	117.77M	198.70M	250.80M	316.00M
Total Debt	290.50M	315.83M	388.67M	416.36M	375.15M	522.90M
Total Liabilities	570.60M	626.84M	726.29M	835.10M	903.30M	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	403.70M	148.70M	254.23M	405.93M	465.40M	440.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-47.66M	39.93M	-69.35M	-124.12M	39.74M	90.54M
Operating Cash Flow	-43.24M	46.68M	-59.46M	-110.86M	50.03M	101.24M
Investing Cash Flow	28.07M	4.04M	-9.87M	-8.55M	7.11M	-10.62M
Financing Cash Flow	7.98M	-50.21M	-13.63M	52.99M	-112.57M	10.75M

Fossil Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.07, above the 50-day MA of 2.50, and above the 200-day MA of 1.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.19 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOSL.

Fossil Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELA	73 Outperform	203.57M	22.80	14.77%	―	25.43%	33.93%
MOV	71 Outperform	302.35M	24.83	3.30%	7.46%	-0.65%	-51.59%
BRLT	66 Neutral	218.46M	-7.59	8941.84%	23.36%	-4.32%	-144.96%
FOSL	56 Neutral	$159.20M	―	-35.01%	―	-15.35%	61.40%
CTHR	45 Neutral	2.35M	-0.14	―	―	-33.51%	36.29%
BGI	41 Neutral	22.34M	-2.42	71.17%	―	-7.08%	-162.35%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Fossil Group Corporate Events

Fossil Group Announces Debt Exchange Agreement

On August 13, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced a Transaction Support Agreement with holders of 59% of its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026, facilitating a debt exchange and new financing. This agreement includes a $32.5 million investment in new 9.5% First-Out Senior Secured Notes due 2029 and a $150 million asset-based revolving credit facility, enhancing Fossil’s financial stability and supporting its growth strategy. The restructuring may proceed through the Companies Act 2006 if less than 90% of noteholders participate, impacting the company’s debt structure and market positioning.

Fossil Group Files Current Report on Form 8-K

Fossil Group has filed a Current Report on Form 8-K, which includes information incorporated by reference under Item 3.02. The report clarifies that it is not an offer to sell or solicit the purchase of securities described within.