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Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)
:FOSL
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Fossil Group
(NASDAQ:FOSL)
46Neutral
Fossil Group (FOSL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$56.83M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)276.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth-18.93%
EPS Growth35.38%
CountryUS
Employees5,200
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength63
IndustryLuxury Goods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.94
Shares Outstanding53,616,040
10 Day Avg. Volume213,706
30 Day Avg. Volume276,850
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.93
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.47
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands, as well as purchases and resells branded products in non-FOSSIL branded retail stores. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW. The company sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, specialty watch and jewelry stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, and retail concessions, as well as sells its products on airlines and cruise ships. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyFossil Group makes money primarily through the design, production, and sale of fashion accessories, with a significant focus on watches, which constitute the largest portion of its revenue. The company generates income from both its owned brands like Fossil and Skagen, and its licensed brands, which include partnerships with major fashion designers and corporations. Fossil Group's revenue streams are diversified across wholesale, direct-to-consumer, and e-commerce channels. The wholesale segment involves selling products to department stores, specialty retailers, and distributors, while direct-to-consumer sales occur through Fossil's branded retail stores and online platforms. Licensing agreements also contribute to its revenue, allowing the company to leverage well-known fashion brands to expand its market reach. Fossil Group's earnings are further influenced by its strategic investments in technology and innovation, particularly in the wearables segment, adapting to consumer trends and demands.
Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fossil Group faces significant challenges in revenue growth, profitability, and financial stability. Despite some improvements in cash flow generation, the company's high leverage and declining equity position pose risks. Strategic initiatives to enhance operational efficiency and reduce debt will be crucial for future financial health.Income Statement
Fossil Group's revenue has shown a declining trend with a significant drop from $2.2 billion in 2019 to $1.14 billion in 2024. The company has consistently reported negative net income, with a net loss of $102.67 million in 2024. Gross profit margin also decreased over the years, reaching approximately 52.2% in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, indicating operational inefficiencies and challenges in maintaining profitability.42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a weakening equity position, with stockholders' equity decreasing to $148.7 million in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is high at 2.12, reflecting a leveraged financial structure. The equity ratio has decreased over the years, standing at 71.1% in 2024, indicating potential risks if asset values decline. The company needs to address its high leverage to strengthen financial stability.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow turned positive in 2024 at $46.68 million, a recovery from previous negative figures. However, free cash flow remains low at $39.93 million, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable due to ongoing net losses. The company has shown improvement in generating cash from operations, but sustainability remains a concern.48
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.14B | 1.41B | 1.68B | 1.87B | 1.61B | Gross Profit |
| 597.15M | 679.58M | 830.70M | 966.40M | 770.40M | EBIT |
| -103.95M | -143.02M | -17.73M | 92.70M | -96.30M | EBITDA |
| -83.07M | -115.26M | 20.44M | 197.99M | 12.31M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -102.67M | -157.09M | -43.50M | 25.43M | -95.90M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 123.60M | 117.77M | 198.70M | 250.80M | 316.00M | Total Assets |
| 763.57M | 978.03M | 1.24B | 1.37B | 1.48B | Total Debt |
| 315.83M | 388.67M | 366.60M | 316.50M | 458.10M | Net Debt |
| 192.23M | 271.48M | 167.90M | 65.70M | 142.10M | Total Liabilities |
| 626.84M | 726.29M | 835.10M | 903.30M | 1.04B | Stockholders Equity |
| 148.70M | 254.23M | 403.00M | 465.40M | 440.00M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 39.93M | -69.35M | -124.12M | 39.74M | 90.54M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 46.68M | -59.46M | -110.86M | 50.03M | 101.24M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 4.04M | -9.87M | -8.55M | 7.11M | -10.62M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -50.21M | -13.63M | 52.99M | -112.57M | 10.75M |
Fossil Group Technical Analysis
Negative
1.06
Price Trends
1.21
Negative
1.51
Negative
1.36
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.08
Negative
46.09
Neutral
86.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.98, below the 50-day MA of 1.21, and below the 200-day MA of 1.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FOSL.
Fossil Group Risk Analysis
Fossil Group disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fossil Group reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Fossil Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $167.92M | 25.05 | 13.39% | ― | 5.07% | -3.19% | |
61 Neutral | $6.55B | 11.72 | 3.07% | 4.01% | 2.66% | -21.27% | |
60 Neutral | $219.17M | 17.10 | 3.95% | 10.08% | -8.69% | -57.84% | |
58 Neutral | $154.95M | ― | 3.88% | ― | -5.43% | -15.13% | |
46 Neutral | $56.83M | ― | -50.98% | ― | -18.93% | 35.38% | |
40 Underperform | $18.24M | ― | 89.94% | ― | 3.11% | 11.94% | |
33 Underperform | $297.80K | ― | ― | -26.68% | 27.41% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
FOSL
Fossil Group
1.06
0.16
17.78%
BGI
Birks & Mayors
0.94
-1.61
-63.14%
CTHR
Charles & Colvard
0.25
-3.23
-92.82%
MOV
Movado Group
14.25
-9.76
-40.65%
ELA
Envela
6.46
1.84
39.83%
BRLT
Brilliant Earth Group
1.56
-1.05
-40.23%
Fossil Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: -16.54%|
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Fossil Group showed significant positive performance in terms of profitability and strategic planning with initiatives that improved gross margins and operational income. However, challenges such as a decline in sales, increased inventory levels, and planned store closures indicate ongoing difficulties that need addressing.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded Earnings Guidance
Fossil Group concluded the year with fourth-quarter results that exceeded their top and bottom-line guidance.
Gross Margin Expansion
Gross margin expanded by 630 basis points to 53.9% in Q4 2024 compared to the prior year, with a further improvement of 850 basis points excluding restructuring charges.
Positive Adjusted Operating Income
Fossil Group achieved adjusted operating income profitability in Q4, delivering an adjusted operating margin of 6%.
New Strategic Initiatives
Introduced a turnaround plan focused on refocusing on core products, right-sizing the cost structure, and strengthening the balance sheet.
Celebrity Campaign
Launched a new omnichannel campaign featuring celebrity ambassador Nick Jonas to strengthen brand visibility.
Improved U.S. Wholesale Performance
The U.S. wholesale channel showed improvement with healthy inventory positions entering 2025.
Negative Updates
Sales Decline
Fourth-quarter net sales totaled $342 million, down 18% in constant currency compared to the prior year.
Increased Inventory Levels
Inventory levels increased by 29% compared to the previous year.
Store Closures
Plan to close approximately 50 retail stores in 2025, which is expected to contribute to a decline in sales.
Impact of Reduced Promotions
Reduced promotional activities expected to create near-term headwinds to sales, particularly in own e-commerce channels.
Company Guidance
During the Fossil Group's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic initiatives aimed at driving future growth. Fossil reported fourth-quarter net sales of $342 million, a decline of 18% in constant currency, attributed in part to a strategic exit from the smartwatch segment and store closures. The company achieved a gross margin expansion of 630 basis points to 53.9%, with an adjusted operating income of $20 million, resulting in a 6% adjusted operating margin. Looking ahead to 2025, Fossil expects a mid-to-high teens sales decline, impacted by approximately $45 million due to store closures and reduced promotional activities. The company outlined plans to achieve $100 million in SG&A savings through workforce reductions, store closures, and transitioning international markets to a distributor model. Fossil targets a return to profitability by 2026, with a mid-single-digit adjusted operating margin and positive free cash flow anticipated by 2027 on net sales exceeding $800 million.Fossil Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Fossil Group Appoints New CFO Amid Strategic Restructuring
Negative
Mar 12, 2025
On March 7, 2025, Fossil Group’s Board of Directors appointed Randy Greben as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective March 17, 2025. This appointment follows the interim tenure of Andy Skobe and is part of the company’s strategic leadership restructuring. Mr. Greben brings extensive experience from his previous roles at Casper Sleep Inc., Blue Apron, ANN Inc., and Quidsi. Concurrently, Fossil Group reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, highlighting a 19% decline in net sales and a strategic exit from the smartwatch category. The company outlined a turnaround plan aiming for significant SG&A savings and long-term financial targets, including achieving over $800 million in net sales by 2027. These initiatives are part of a broader effort to strengthen Fossil Group’s market position and drive long-term growth.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.