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Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)
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Fossil Group (FOSL) AI Stock Analysis

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FOSL

Fossil Group

(NASDAQ:FOSL)

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Neutral 55 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-0.33% Downside)
Fossil Group's overall stock score reflects financial challenges and a negative valuation, offset by positive technical momentum and strategic improvements highlighted in the earnings call. The company's turnaround efforts and brand recognition provide a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Positive Factors
Debt Restructuring
Extending debt maturity and securing new capital enhances financial flexibility, supporting long-term growth and stability.
Cost Management
Effective cost management and SG&A reduction improve operational efficiency, aiding profitability and financial health.
Gross Margin Stability
Maintaining a strong gross margin despite sales declines indicates effective pricing strategy and cost control.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
Persistent revenue decline highlights market challenges and may impact long-term growth if not addressed.
Profitability Issues
Ongoing profitability issues suggest operational inefficiencies, potentially affecting future financial performance.
Market Challenges in China
Challenges in China, a key market, could hinder growth prospects and require strategic adjustments.

Fossil Group (FOSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands, as well as purchases and resells branded products in non-FOSSIL branded retail stores. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW. The company sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, specialty watch and jewelry stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, and retail concessions, as well as sells its products on airlines and cruise ships. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyFossil Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded watches, jewelry, handbags, and wearables, both through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels. The company's revenue model is supported by retail sales in its own stores, online platforms, and partnerships with various department and specialty stores. Key revenue streams include wholesale distribution, e-commerce sales, and licensing agreements with other fashion brands, which provide royalties. Additionally, Fossil Group has invested in connected technology, boosting its revenue through the sale of smartwatches and fitness trackers. Significant partnerships with established fashion brands enhance its product offerings and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

Fossil Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 13, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Fossil Group's significant progress in transforming its balance sheet and achieving recognition as a leading brand. While there were challenges such as a sales decline and minimum royalty deficits, the company has taken strategic actions to improve its financial stability and market presence, particularly in Asia. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a focus on long-term growth.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Balance Sheet Transformation
Fossil Group completed bond restructuring, extending debt maturity to 2029 and bringing in more than $32 million of new capital, providing financial flexibility for future growth.
Recognition as a Leading Brand
Fossil was named on Time Magazine's list of World's Best Brands for the second consecutive year, ranking #1 in Germany and #2 in the U.S.
Improved Gross Margin Profile
Full price selling model and cost control measures have positioned Fossil Group to achieve a best-in-class gross margin profile in the mid-50s.
Strong Performance in Asia
Asia region showed positive growth, led by strong performance in India and Japan, with gross margin expansion despite challenges in China.
Innovative Collaborations and Campaigns
Partnership with Nick Jonas and collaboration with Fantastic Four and Galactus led to successful product launches and increased brand awareness.
Negative Updates
Sales Decline
Net sales decreased by 7% year-over-year, with challenges in the direct-to-consumer e-commerce segment that has been intentionally shrunk.
Minimum Royalty Deficits
Impact of licensed brand minimum royalty shortfall affected gross margin in Q3, though improvements are expected for 2026.
Challenges in China
Continued market shrinkage in China, impacting overall performance in the region.
Company Guidance
During the Fossil Group's Third Quarter 2025 earnings call, several key metrics highlighted the company's financial and operational progress. The company achieved a significant milestone by restructuring its bond, extending debt maturity to 2029 and securing over $32 million in new capital. This restructuring was part of Fossil's broader turnaround plan, which also involved narrowing the sales decline to 7% and maintaining a strong gross margin of 48.7%, despite a minimum royalty shortfall. The company's disciplined approach has resulted in over $60 million in year-to-date cost savings, reducing SG&A by 260 basis points on a 10% sales decline. Additionally, Fossil reported a substantial improvement in its adjusted operating loss, moving from a $58 million loss in the first nine months of 2024 to nearly breakeven in 2025. The company reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting a mid-teens decline in worldwide net sales and a breakeven to slightly positive adjusted operating margin.

Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fossil Group faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability issues. Improvements in cash flow management and leverage are noted, but operational inefficiencies and revenue growth need addressing.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Fossil Group's income statement shows a declining trend in revenue with a negative revenue growth rate of -3.53% in the TTM. The company is experiencing negative net profit margins (-5.49%) and EBIT margins (-3.95%), indicating operational challenges. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 55.04%, suggesting some efficiency in cost management despite declining sales.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72 in the TTM, which is an improvement from previous years, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity is negative (-27.74%), highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall financial health appears strained due to consistent losses.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 142.44% in the TTM, indicating better cash management. However, both operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative, reflecting ongoing liquidity challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.10, suggesting some efficiency in converting earnings to cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.08B1.14B1.41B1.68B1.87B1.61B
Gross Profit604.09M597.15M685.12M830.68M966.37M770.36M
EBITDA33.07M-83.07M-72.95M20.44M107.74M-97.01M
Net Income-59.46M-102.67M-157.09M-44.16M25.43M-96.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets704.51M763.57M978.03M1.24B1.37B1.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments109.86M123.60M117.77M198.73M250.84M316.09M
Total Debt324.39M315.83M388.67M416.36M375.15M522.90M
Total Liabilities570.60M626.84M726.29M835.12M903.36M1.04B
Stockholders Equity150.27M148.70M254.23M405.93M463.23M439.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-47.66M39.93M-69.35M-124.12M39.74M90.54M
Operating Cash Flow-43.24M46.68M-59.46M-110.86M50.03M101.24M
Investing Cash Flow28.07M4.04M-9.87M-8.55M7.11M-10.62M
Financing Cash Flow7.98M-50.21M-13.63M52.99M-112.57M10.75M

Fossil Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.01
Price Trends
50DMA
2.43
Positive
100DMA
2.40
Positive
200DMA
1.87
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.12
Negative
RSI
66.19
Neutral
STOCH
90.68
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.21, above the 50-day MA of 2.43, and above the 200-day MA of 1.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOSL.

Fossil Group Risk Analysis

Fossil Group disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fossil Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Fossil Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$328.39M21.494.40%7.20%0.63%-7.37%
65
Neutral
$299.36M29.3718.19%23.75%59.66%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
55
Neutral
$164.47M-48.62%-12.89%45.32%
51
Neutral
$118.29M-2.88%13.59%1.32%-175.81%
41
Neutral
$236.23M-2353.49%-23.54%-49.41%
40
Underperform
$22.34M-2.42-7.08%-162.35%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FOSL
Fossil Group
3.13
1.02
48.34%
BGI
Birks & Mayors
1.08
-0.57
-34.35%
MOV
Movado Group
21.30
2.23
11.69%
ELA
Envela
11.56
4.83
71.77%
LANV
Lanvin Group Holdings
2.13
0.53
33.12%
BRLT
Brilliant Earth Group
1.78
-0.01
-0.56%

Fossil Group Corporate Events

Fossil Group’s Earnings Call: Optimism Amid Challenges
Nov 15, 2025

Fossil Group’s recent earnings call conveyed a cautiously optimistic sentiment, highlighting significant progress in transforming its balance sheet and gaining recognition as a leading brand. Despite facing challenges such as a sales decline and minimum royalty deficits, the company has taken strategic actions to bolster its financial stability and market presence, particularly in Asia. The focus remains on long-term growth, with a positive outlook for the future.

Fossil Group Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Nov 14, 2025

Fossil Group, Inc. is a global design and marketing company specializing in lifestyle accessories, including watches, jewelry, and leather goods, with a diverse portfolio of owned and licensed brands. In its latest earnings report, Fossil Group announced a third-quarter net sales figure of $270 million, alongside an operating loss of $22 million. The company has completed a significant balance sheet transformation, which is expected to bolster its financial position moving forward. Key financial metrics from the third quarter reveal a 6.1% decrease in net sales compared to the previous year, primarily due to a decline in direct-to-consumer sales. Operating expenses were reduced by 7.5%, reflecting the company’s ongoing restructuring efforts. Despite these challenges, Fossil Group has managed to improve its operating loss and margin compared to the previous year. Looking ahead, Fossil Group remains committed to its financial guidance for the full year 2025, anticipating a mid-teens decline in net sales but aiming for a break-even or slightly positive adjusted operating margin.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fossil Group Announces New Equity Distribution Agreement
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

On November 13, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced an Equity Distribution Agreement with Maxim Group LLC to establish an at-the-market equity program, allowing the company to offer and sell up to $50 million in common stock. This strategic move provides Fossil Group with flexibility in raising capital, although there is no obligation to sell any shares, and the agreement will terminate upon reaching the $50 million cap or after twelve months, whichever comes first.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fossil Group Completes Restructuring Plan with New Financing
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

On November 13, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. completed a restructuring plan involving the exchange of its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 and a concurrent rights offering. The restructuring plan led to the issuance of new 9.500% First-Out First Lien Secured Senior Notes due 2029 and Second-Out Second Lien Secured Senior Notes, with noteholders receiving new notes and warrants. The plan resulted in the cancellation of $150 million of old notes and provided $32.5 million in new financing, impacting the company’s debt structure and stakeholder positions.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsPrivate Placements and Financing
Fossil Group Receives Chapter 15 Recognition Order
Negative
Nov 12, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced that the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas has granted a Chapter 15 recognition order, facilitating the company’s restructuring of its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026. This order aligns with the restructuring plan approved by the High Court of Justice of England and Wales, and the company plans to distribute securities related to this plan shortly, impacting its financial operations and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fossil Group Announces UK Subsidiary Restructuring Plan
Neutral
Nov 10, 2025

On November 10, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Fossil (UK) Global Services Ltd, received a sanction order from the High Court of Justice of England and Wales for a restructuring plan under Part 26A of the UK Companies Act 2006. This plan involves canceling the 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 and issuing new secured senior notes due 2029, aimed at addressing upcoming debt maturity and enhancing liquidity to support the company’s turnaround strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fossil Group’s Restructuring Plan Approved by Creditors
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025

On November 6, 2025, Fossil Group announced that its subsidiary, Fossil (UK) Global Services Ltd, successfully held a meeting where the restructuring plan for its US $150 million 7.00% Senior Notes was approved by 99.99% of the creditors present. This approval paves the way for a sanction hearing scheduled for November 10, 2025, at the Royal Courts of Justice in London, which is a crucial step in the company’s efforts to restructure its financial obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Legal ProceedingsPrivate Placements and Financing
Fossil Group Plans Creditor Meeting for Restructuring
Neutral
Nov 4, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced the upcoming Plan Meeting on November 6, 2025, for creditors of its subsidiary, Fossil (UK) Global Services Ltd, regarding the restructuring of US $150 million 7.00% Senior Notes due in 2026. The Plan Creditors will consider approving the restructuring plan, with a subsequent Sanction Hearing scheduled for November 10, 2025, at the Royal Courts of Justice in London, which could impact the company’s financial restructuring efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Fossil Group Amends Senior Notes Governing Law
Neutral
Oct 23, 2025

On October 22, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. received the necessary consents from holders of its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 to adopt amendments changing the governing law to England and Wales and removing a covenant. Subsequently, Fossil proceeded with an English law restructuring plan to implement these changes. The company also announced an extension of its Exchange Offer and Rights Offering expiration to November 10, 2025, due to not meeting the minimum tender condition by the original deadline.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsPrivate Placements and Financing
Fossil Group Extends Exchange Offer Deadline
Neutral
Oct 16, 2025

On October 16, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced an extension of its exchange offer and consent solicitation for its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026, moving the expiration date to October 22, 2025. The company also updated on its UK Proceeding, where a court order approved a meeting for noteholders to vote on the proceeding scheduled for November 6, 2025. Additionally, Fossil addressed a media report about a potential IPO of a subsidiary in India, clarifying that no such plans are currently underway.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fossil Group Extends Exchange Offer Deadline
Neutral
Oct 8, 2025

On October 8, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced an extension of the expiration time for its exchange offer and consent solicitation regarding its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026. The deadline has been moved from October 7, 2025, to October 15, 2025. This extension allows more time for stakeholders to participate in the exchange offer, consent solicitation, and concurrent rights offering. The company continues to proceed with its UK Proceeding and may implement amendments to the indenture for the old notes. As of October 7, 2025, a significant portion of the notes had been tendered, indicating strong stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Fossil Group Announces Exchange Offer for Senior Notes
Neutral
Sep 25, 2025

On September 25, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced that its registration statements related to an offer to exchange its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 were declared effective by the SEC. This move is part of a broader strategy involving a rights offering and potential restructuring, which could impact the company’s financial stability and market position. The expiration of the exchange offer and rights offering is anticipated for October 7, 2025, with potential extensions if a UK Proceeding is initiated.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fossil Group Launches Debt Restructuring Initiative
Positive
Sep 10, 2025

On September 9, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced the commencement of an exchange offer, consent solicitation, and rights offering related to its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026. This strategic financial maneuver aims to restructure the company’s debt by offering new secured senior notes and public warrants to holders of the old notes. The initiative is designed to improve the company’s financial position and provide stakeholders with new investment opportunities, potentially enhancing Fossil Group’s market stability and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group’s Earnings Call: Positive Outlook Amid Challenges
Sep 1, 2025

The recent earnings call of Fossil Group, Inc. exuded a predominantly positive sentiment, reflecting significant operational improvements and strategic initiatives that have driven enhanced financial performance. Despite facing challenges such as a decline in sales and pressures in the Chinese market, the company highlighted positive aspects including gross margin expansion, successful brand collaborations, and effective cost management, contributing to an overall optimistic outlook.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 26, 2025