Fossil Group (FOSL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $83.13M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 365.87K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: -16.31%
• EPS Growth: 32.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,200
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Luxury Goods
• EPS (TTM): -0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 53,634,346
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 616,226
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 365,872
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.89
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲( 0.67% Upside)

Fossil Group's overall score reflects substantial financial difficulties with declining sales, negative margins, and high leverage. Despite some positive technical indicators and strategic shifts, valuation concerns and earnings risks remain significant. The company's restructuring efforts and leadership changes offer potential for future improvement, but the path to stabilization and growth is uncertain.

Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands, as well as purchases and resells branded products in non-FOSSIL branded retail stores. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW. The company sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, specialty watch and jewelry stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, and retail concessions, as well as sells its products on airlines and cruise ships. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Fossil Group makes money primarily through the design, production, and sale of fashion accessories, with a significant focus on watches, which constitute the largest portion of its revenue. The company generates income from both its owned brands like Fossil and Skagen, and its licensed brands, which include partnerships with major fashion designers and corporations. Fossil Group's revenue streams are diversified across wholesale, direct-to-consumer, and e-commerce channels. The wholesale segment involves selling products to department stores, specialty retailers, and distributors, while direct-to-consumer sales occur through Fossil's branded retail stores and online platforms. Licensing agreements also contribute to its revenue, allowing the company to leverage well-known fashion brands to expand its market reach. Fossil Group's earnings are further influenced by its strategic investments in technology and innovation, particularly in the wearables segment, adapting to consumer trends and demands.

Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fossil Group faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, negative margins, and high debt levels. Inconsistent profit generation and negative cash flows highlight the company's operational inefficiencies and financial instability.

Income Statement

Fossil Group has been experiencing declining revenues over the past few years, with a significant drop in Gross Profit and persistent negative EBIT and Net Income. The TTM data shows a Gross Profit Margin of 54.85% and a Net Profit Margin of -10.29%, indicating operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative, reflecting struggles in maintaining sales levels.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a high Debt-to-Equity ratio, as total debt exceeds stockholders' equity, indicating high leverage. The Equity Ratio stands at 69.06% in TTM, a decrease from previous years, suggesting a shrinking asset base relative to equity. Return on Equity is negative due to consistent net losses.

Cash Flow

Fossil Group's cash flow statement highlights significant challenges. The Free Cash Flow is negative, with a decline in Operating Cash Flow over time. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is unfavorable, and the Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio indicates inefficiencies in converting sales to cash.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
723.67M	1.14B	1.41B	1.68B	1.87B	1.61B
	Gross Profit
396.95M	597.15M	679.58M	830.70M	966.40M	770.40M
	EBIT
-79.18M	-103.95M	-143.02M	-17.73M	92.70M	-96.30M
	EBITDA
-77.67M	-83.07M	-115.26M	20.44M	197.99M	12.31M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-74.47M	-102.67M	-157.09M	-43.50M	25.43M	-95.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
112.97M	123.60M	117.77M	198.70M	250.80M	316.00M
	Total Assets
890.97M	763.57M	978.03M	1.24B	1.37B	1.48B
	Total Debt
372.74M	315.83M	388.67M	366.60M	316.50M	458.10M
	Net Debt
259.77M	192.23M	271.48M	167.90M	65.70M	142.10M
	Total Liabilities
664.40M	626.84M	726.29M	835.10M	903.30M	1.04B
	Stockholders Equity
229.09M	148.70M	254.23M	403.00M	465.40M	440.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-5.40M	39.93M	-69.35M	-124.12M	39.74M	90.54M
	Operating Cash Flow
-1.82M	46.68M	-59.46M	-110.86M	50.03M	101.24M
	Investing Cash Flow
5.52M	4.04M	-9.87M	-8.55M	7.11M	-10.62M
	Financing Cash Flow
-826.00K	-50.21M	-13.63M	52.99M	-112.57M	10.75M

Fossil Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.49
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.30, above the 50-day MA of 1.18, and above the 200-day MA of 1.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOSL.

Fossil Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELA	71 Outperform	$163.51M	22.34	14.06%	―	15.71%	15.03%
MOV	70 Outperform	$267.61M	20.87	3.95%	8.25%	-8.69%	-57.84%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.84B	11.22	2.83%	3.93%	2.65%	-21.93%
FOSL	49 Neutral	$83.13M	―	-51.93%	―	-16.31%	32.30%
BRLT	46 Neutral	$138.04M	―	-0.45%	―	-6.12%	-105.56%
BGI	40 Underperform	$17.38M	―	89.94%	―	3.11%	11.94%
CTHR	34 Underperform	$1.09M	―		―	-26.68%	27.41%

Fossil Group Corporate Events

Fossil Group Expands Board with New Appointments

On May 14, 2025, Fossil Group announced the appointment of Pamela Edwards and Wendy Schoppert to its Board of Directors, effective May 16, 2025. Both appointees will also serve on the Audit Committee, expanding the board to ten members, including nine independent directors. Edwards and Schoppert bring extensive leadership experience in retail, finance, and strategic transformation, which is expected to support Fossil Group’s turnaround plan and long-term shareholder value. Their appointments reflect the company’s focus on strengthening its board with seasoned executives to drive growth and transformation.

Fossil Group Appoints New CFO Amid Strategic Restructuring

On March 7, 2025, Fossil Group’s Board of Directors appointed Randy Greben as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective March 17, 2025. This appointment follows the interim tenure of Andy Skobe and is part of the company’s strategic leadership restructuring. Mr. Greben brings extensive experience from his previous roles at Casper Sleep Inc., Blue Apron, ANN Inc., and Quidsi. Concurrently, Fossil Group reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, highlighting a 19% decline in net sales and a strategic exit from the smartwatch category. The company outlined a turnaround plan aiming for significant SG&A savings and long-term financial targets, including achieving over $800 million in net sales by 2027. These initiatives are part of a broader effort to strengthen Fossil Group’s market position and drive long-term growth.