Fossil Group (FOSL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $89.57M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 196.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: -16.31%
• EPS Growth: 32.30%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,200
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Luxury Goods
• EPS (TTM): -1.71
• Shares Outstanding: 53,634,346
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 273,275
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 196,161
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.94
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-7.98%Downside)

Fossil Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and negative cash flows. While technical indicators show some positive momentum, valuation remains a concern due to ongoing losses. The earnings call and recent board appointments provide some optimism for strategic improvements, but significant challenges remain.

Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands, as well as purchases and resells branded products in non-FOSSIL branded retail stores. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW. The company sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, specialty watch and jewelry stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, and retail concessions, as well as sells its products on airlines and cruise ships. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Fossil Group makes money primarily through the design, production, and sale of its fashion accessories. The company's revenue streams are largely derived from the sale of watches, which constitute the majority of its business, including both traditional and smartwatches. In addition to its own branded products, Fossil Group also generates income by designing and manufacturing private label watches for other brands. The company leverages its international retail and wholesale distribution networks to reach a broad customer base across various markets. Significant partnerships with technology companies have allowed Fossil Group to penetrate the smartwatch market, integrating advanced technology with fashion-forward designs. The company's earnings are bolstered by strategic collaborations and licensing agreements with renowned fashion and lifestyle brands, which expand its product offerings and market reach.

Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fossil Group is facing substantial financial challenges with declining revenues, persistent negative EBIT, and a high debt-to-equity ratio. The negative free cash flow and inefficiencies in cash conversion further underscore the financial hurdles.

Income Statement

Fossil Group has been experiencing declining revenues over the past few years, with a significant drop in Gross Profit and persistent negative EBIT and Net Income. The TTM data shows a Gross Profit Margin of 54.85% and a Net Profit Margin of -10.29%, indicating operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative, reflecting struggles in maintaining sales levels.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a high Debt-to-Equity ratio, as total debt exceeds stockholders' equity, indicating high leverage. The Equity Ratio stands at 69.06% in TTM, a decrease from previous years, suggesting a shrinking asset base relative to equity. Return on Equity is negative due to consistent net losses.

Cash Flow

Fossil Group's cash flow statement highlights significant challenges. The Free Cash Flow is negative, with a decline in Operating Cash Flow over time. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is unfavorable, and the Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio indicates inefficiencies in converting sales to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	723.67M	1.14B	1.41B	1.68B	1.87B	1.61B
Gross Profit	396.95M	597.15M	679.58M	830.70M	966.40M	770.40M
EBITDA	-77.67M	-83.07M	-115.26M	20.44M	197.99M	12.31M
Net Income	-74.47M	-102.67M	-157.09M	-43.50M	25.43M	-95.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.31B	763.57M	978.03M	1.24B	1.37B	1.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	162.61M	123.60M	117.77M	198.70M	250.80M	316.00M
Total Debt	445.87M	315.83M	388.67M	366.60M	316.50M	458.10M
Total Liabilities	924.75M	626.84M	726.29M	835.10M	903.30M	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	393.05M	148.70M	254.23M	403.00M	465.40M	440.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-5.40M	39.93M	-69.35M	-124.12M	39.74M	90.54M
Operating Cash Flow	-1.82M	46.68M	-59.46M	-110.86M	50.03M	101.24M
Investing Cash Flow	5.52M	4.04M	-9.87M	-8.55M	7.11M	-10.62M
Financing Cash Flow	-826.00K	-50.21M	-13.63M	52.99M	-112.57M	10.75M

Fossil Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.63
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.42, above the 50-day MA of 1.36, and above the 200-day MA of 1.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOSL.

Fossil Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELA	71 Outperform	$160.39M	21.91	14.06%	―	15.71%	15.03%
MOV	63 Neutral	$260.19M	20.39	3.67%	8.65%	-1.36%	-54.97%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.85B	11.50	-7.38%	2.96%	1.59%	-23.36%
FOSL	53 Neutral	$89.57M	―	-51.93%	―	-16.31%	32.30%
BRLT	47 Neutral	$142.02M	―	-0.45%	―	-6.12%	-105.56%
CTHR	45 Neutral	$2.99M	―		―	―	―
BGI	40 Underperform	$18.35M	―	89.94%	―	3.11%	11.94%

Fossil Group Corporate Events

Fossil Group Expands Board with New Appointments

On May 14, 2025, Fossil Group announced the appointment of Pamela Edwards and Wendy Schoppert to its Board of Directors, effective May 16, 2025. Both appointees will also serve on the Audit Committee, expanding the board to ten members, including nine independent directors. Edwards and Schoppert bring extensive leadership experience in retail, finance, and strategic transformation, which is expected to support Fossil Group’s turnaround plan and long-term shareholder value. Their appointments reflect the company’s focus on strengthening its board with seasoned executives to drive growth and transformation.