Fossil Group (FOSL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $110.26M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.16M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: -15.35%
• EPS Growth: 61.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,200
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Luxury Goods
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 53,785,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 393,571
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,157,329
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.08
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.65
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -24.01
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 163.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -3.83
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $967.00M

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(5.26% Upside)

Fossil Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and profitability issues. Technical analysis further indicates bearish momentum. However, the positive sentiment from the recent earnings call, highlighting operational improvements and strategic initiatives, provides some optimism for potential recovery.

Positive Factors

Gross Margin Expansion

Consistent gross margin expansion indicates effective cost management and pricing strategies, enhancing profitability and competitive positioning.

Debt Refinancing

Refinancing debt and extending maturities improve liquidity and financial flexibility, supporting long-term operational stability.

Brand Collaborations

Successful brand collaborations enhance market visibility and consumer engagement, driving potential revenue growth and brand strength.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Continued revenue decline reflects challenges in market demand and retail environment, impacting long-term growth prospects.

Retail Store Closures

Closing stores may reduce physical market presence and limit consumer access, potentially affecting sales and brand reach.

Challenges in China

Ongoing challenges in China, a key market, could hinder revenue growth and market expansion efforts in the region.

Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands, as well as purchases and resells branded products in non-FOSSIL branded retail stores. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW. The company sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, specialty watch and jewelry stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, and retail concessions, as well as sells its products on airlines and cruise ships. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Fossil Group generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling watches and fashion accessories both directly to consumers and through wholesale distribution channels. The company's revenue model includes retail sales from its own branded stores and e-commerce platforms, as well as sales through third-party retailers and department stores. Key revenue streams include the sale of traditional and smartwatches, jewelry, and leather goods. Fossil also benefits from partnerships with luxury brands, which allow it to produce and distribute licensed products, further diversifying its offerings. Seasonal promotions, collaborations, and limited-edition releases contribute to sales spikes, while ongoing investments in digital marketing and online sales platforms help to enhance brand visibility and reach.

Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fossil Group faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability issues. While there are improvements in cash flow management and leverage, the company needs to address its operational inefficiencies and enhance revenue growth to improve its financial standing.

Income Statement

Fossil Group's income statement shows a declining trend in revenue with a negative revenue growth rate of -3.53% in the TTM. The company is experiencing negative net profit margins (-5.49%) and EBIT margins (-3.95%), indicating operational challenges. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 55.04%, suggesting some efficiency in cost management despite declining sales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72 in the TTM, which is an improvement from previous years, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity is negative (-27.74%), highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall financial health appears strained due to consistent losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 142.44% in the TTM, indicating better cash management. However, both operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative, reflecting ongoing liquidity challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.10, suggesting some efficiency in converting earnings to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2019	Dec 2018
Income Statement
Total Revenue	741.50M	1.14B	1.41B	1.68B	2.22B	2.54B
Gross Profit	411.95M	597.15M	679.58M	830.68M	1.10B	1.34B
EBITDA	-12.16M	-83.07M	-115.26M	20.44M	53.39M	185.04M
Net Income	-51.90M	-102.67M	-157.09M	-44.16M	-52.37M	-3.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	704.51M	763.57M	978.03M	1.24B	1.60B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	109.90M	123.60M	117.77M	198.70M	200.20M	403.40M
Total Debt	290.50M	315.83M	388.67M	416.36M	493.70M	396.20M
Total Liabilities	570.60M	626.84M	726.29M	835.10M	1.10B	986.60M
Stockholders Equity	403.70M	148.70M	254.23M	405.93M	503.80M	588.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-76.14M	39.93M	-69.35M	-124.12M	-38.35M	230.18M
Operating Cash Flow	-73.75M	46.68M	-59.46M	-110.86M	-14.21M	248.14M
Investing Cash Flow	28.17M	4.04M	-9.87M	-8.55M	18.68M	-15.62M
Financing Cash Flow	24.38M	-50.21M	-13.63M	52.99M	-208.49M	-62.66M

Fossil Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.90
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.33, below the 50-day MA of 2.66, and above the 200-day MA of 1.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FOSL.

Fossil Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELA	67 Neutral	$253.68M	26.24	18.19%	―	23.75%	59.66%
MOV	65 Neutral	$292.94M	24.05	3.52%	7.77%	-0.65%	-51.59%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BRLT	56 Neutral	$241.40M	―	-2.88%	8.93%	1.32%	-175.81%
FOSL	47 Neutral	$110.26M	―	-35.01%	―	-15.35%	61.40%
BGI	41 Neutral	$22.34M	-2.42	―	―	-7.08%	-162.35%
LANV	40 Underperform	$244.41M	―	-2353.49%	―	-23.54%	-49.41%

Fossil Group Corporate Events

Fossil Group’s Restructuring Plan Approved by Creditors

On November 6, 2025, Fossil Group announced that its subsidiary, Fossil (UK) Global Services Ltd, successfully held a meeting where the restructuring plan for its US $150 million 7.00% Senior Notes was approved by 99.99% of the creditors present. This approval paves the way for a sanction hearing scheduled for November 10, 2025, at the Royal Courts of Justice in London, which is a crucial step in the company’s efforts to restructure its financial obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group Plans Creditor Meeting for Restructuring

On November 4, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced the upcoming Plan Meeting on November 6, 2025, for creditors of its subsidiary, Fossil (UK) Global Services Ltd, regarding the restructuring of US $150 million 7.00% Senior Notes due in 2026. The Plan Creditors will consider approving the restructuring plan, with a subsequent Sanction Hearing scheduled for November 10, 2025, at the Royal Courts of Justice in London, which could impact the company’s financial restructuring efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group Amends Senior Notes Governing Law

On October 22, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. received the necessary consents from holders of its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 to adopt amendments changing the governing law to England and Wales and removing a covenant. Subsequently, Fossil proceeded with an English law restructuring plan to implement these changes. The company also announced an extension of its Exchange Offer and Rights Offering expiration to November 10, 2025, due to not meeting the minimum tender condition by the original deadline.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group Extends Exchange Offer Deadline

On October 16, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced an extension of its exchange offer and consent solicitation for its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026, moving the expiration date to October 22, 2025. The company also updated on its UK Proceeding, where a court order approved a meeting for noteholders to vote on the proceeding scheduled for November 6, 2025. Additionally, Fossil addressed a media report about a potential IPO of a subsidiary in India, clarifying that no such plans are currently underway.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group Extends Exchange Offer Deadline

On October 8, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced an extension of the expiration time for its exchange offer and consent solicitation regarding its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026. The deadline has been moved from October 7, 2025, to October 15, 2025. This extension allows more time for stakeholders to participate in the exchange offer, consent solicitation, and concurrent rights offering. The company continues to proceed with its UK Proceeding and may implement amendments to the indenture for the old notes. As of October 7, 2025, a significant portion of the notes had been tendered, indicating strong stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group Announces Exchange Offer for Senior Notes

On September 25, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced that its registration statements related to an offer to exchange its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 were declared effective by the SEC. This move is part of a broader strategy involving a rights offering and potential restructuring, which could impact the company’s financial stability and market position. The expiration of the exchange offer and rights offering is anticipated for October 7, 2025, with potential extensions if a UK Proceeding is initiated.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group Launches Debt Restructuring Initiative

On September 9, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced the commencement of an exchange offer, consent solicitation, and rights offering related to its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026. This strategic financial maneuver aims to restructure the company’s debt by offering new secured senior notes and public warrants to holders of the old notes. The initiative is designed to improve the company’s financial position and provide stakeholders with new investment opportunities, potentially enhancing Fossil Group’s market stability and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group’s Earnings Call: Positive Outlook Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call of Fossil Group, Inc. exuded a predominantly positive sentiment, reflecting significant operational improvements and strategic initiatives that have driven enhanced financial performance. Despite facing challenges such as a decline in sales and pressures in the Chinese market, the company highlighted positive aspects including gross margin expansion, successful brand collaborations, and effective cost management, contributing to an overall optimistic outlook.

Fossil Group Announces Debt Exchange Agreement

On August 13, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced a Transaction Support Agreement with holders of 59% of its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026, facilitating a debt exchange and new financing. This agreement includes a $32.5 million investment in new 9.5% First-Out Senior Secured Notes due 2029 and a $150 million asset-based revolving credit facility, enhancing Fossil’s financial stability and supporting its growth strategy. The restructuring may proceed through the Companies Act 2006 if less than 90% of noteholders participate, impacting the company’s debt structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group Reports Positive Q2 2025 Results

Fossil Group, Inc. is a global design and marketing company specializing in lifestyle accessories, including watches, jewelry, and leather goods, with a diverse portfolio of owned and licensed brands.

Fossil Group Files Current Report on Form 8-K

Fossil Group has filed a Current Report on Form 8-K, which includes information incorporated by reference under Item 3.02. The report clarifies that it is not an offer to sell or solicit the purchase of securities described within.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.