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Fossil Group (FOSL)
NASDAQ:FOSL

Fossil Group (FOSL) AI Stock Analysis

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FOSL

Fossil Group

(NASDAQ:FOSL)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(8.40% Upside)
Fossil Group's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges and unattractive valuation, despite positive technical indicators and strategic restructuring efforts. The company's ability to navigate its operational inefficiencies and leverage recent restructuring will be crucial for future performance.
Positive Factors
Debt Restructuring
Extending debt maturity provides financial flexibility, allowing Fossil to focus on long-term growth strategies without immediate debt pressure.
Cost Management
Effective cost management enhances profitability and operational efficiency, supporting sustainable business operations and competitive positioning.
Brand Recognition
Strong brand recognition boosts market presence and consumer trust, which can drive sales and support long-term market leadership.
Negative Factors
Sales Decline
A declining sales trend indicates potential market share loss and challenges in demand, affecting revenue growth and profitability.
Profitability Issues
Negative profitability metrics highlight operational inefficiencies and cost pressures, which can hinder long-term financial health.
Challenges in China
Market shrinkage in China poses a risk to growth in a key region, potentially impacting global revenue and strategic expansion plans.

Fossil Group (FOSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) is a global design, marketing, and distribution company that specializes in lifestyle and fashion accessories, primarily known for its watches, jewelry, and handbags. Established in 1984, the company operates in multiple sectors, including fashion accessories and wearables, offering a diverse range of products under various brand names, including Fossil, Skagen, and Misfit. Fossil Group also produces licensed products for renowned brands such as Michael Kors, DKNY, and Diesel, further expanding its market presence.
How the Company Makes MoneyFossil Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded watches, jewelry, handbags, and wearables, both through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels. The company's revenue model is supported by retail sales in its own stores, online platforms, and partnerships with various department and specialty stores. Key revenue streams include wholesale distribution, e-commerce sales, and licensing agreements with other fashion brands, which provide royalties. Additionally, Fossil Group has invested in connected technology, boosting its revenue through the sale of smartwatches and fitness trackers. Significant partnerships with established fashion brands enhance its product offerings and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

Fossil Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 13, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Fossil Group's significant progress in transforming its balance sheet and achieving recognition as a leading brand. While there were challenges such as a sales decline and minimum royalty deficits, the company has taken strategic actions to improve its financial stability and market presence, particularly in Asia. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a focus on long-term growth.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Balance Sheet Transformation
Fossil Group completed bond restructuring, extending debt maturity to 2029 and bringing in more than $32 million of new capital, providing financial flexibility for future growth.
Recognition as a Leading Brand
Fossil was named on Time Magazine's list of World's Best Brands for the second consecutive year, ranking #1 in Germany and #2 in the U.S.
Improved Gross Margin Profile
Full price selling model and cost control measures have positioned Fossil Group to achieve a best-in-class gross margin profile in the mid-50s.
Strong Performance in Asia
Asia region showed positive growth, led by strong performance in India and Japan, with gross margin expansion despite challenges in China.
Innovative Collaborations and Campaigns
Partnership with Nick Jonas and collaboration with Fantastic Four and Galactus led to successful product launches and increased brand awareness.
Negative Updates
Sales Decline
Net sales decreased by 7% year-over-year, with challenges in the direct-to-consumer e-commerce segment that has been intentionally shrunk.
Minimum Royalty Deficits
Impact of licensed brand minimum royalty shortfall affected gross margin in Q3, though improvements are expected for 2026.
Challenges in China
Continued market shrinkage in China, impacting overall performance in the region.
Company Guidance
During the Fossil Group's Third Quarter 2025 earnings call, several key metrics highlighted the company's financial and operational progress. The company achieved a significant milestone by restructuring its bond, extending debt maturity to 2029 and securing over $32 million in new capital. This restructuring was part of Fossil's broader turnaround plan, which also involved narrowing the sales decline to 7% and maintaining a strong gross margin of 48.7%, despite a minimum royalty shortfall. The company's disciplined approach has resulted in over $60 million in year-to-date cost savings, reducing SG&A by 260 basis points on a 10% sales decline. Additionally, Fossil reported a substantial improvement in its adjusted operating loss, moving from a $58 million loss in the first nine months of 2024 to nearly breakeven in 2025. The company reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting a mid-teens decline in worldwide net sales and a breakeven to slightly positive adjusted operating margin.

Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fossil Group faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability issues. Improvements in cash flow management and leverage are noted, but operational inefficiencies and revenue growth need addressing.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Fossil Group's income statement shows a declining trend in revenue with a negative revenue growth rate of -3.53% in the TTM. The company is experiencing negative net profit margins (-5.49%) and EBIT margins (-3.95%), indicating operational challenges. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 55.04%, suggesting some efficiency in cost management despite declining sales.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72 in the TTM, which is an improvement from previous years, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity is negative (-27.74%), highlighting profitability issues. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall financial health appears strained due to consistent losses.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 142.44% in the TTM, indicating better cash management. However, both operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative, reflecting ongoing liquidity challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.10, suggesting some efficiency in converting earnings to cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.08B1.14B1.41B1.68B1.87B1.61B
Gross Profit604.09M597.15M685.12M830.68M966.37M770.36M
EBITDA33.07M-83.07M-72.95M20.44M107.74M-97.01M
Net Income-59.46M-102.67M-157.09M-44.16M25.43M-96.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets704.51M763.57M978.03M1.24B1.37B1.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments109.86M123.60M117.77M198.73M250.84M316.09M
Total Debt324.39M315.83M388.67M416.36M375.15M522.90M
Total Liabilities570.60M626.84M726.29M835.12M903.36M1.04B
Stockholders Equity150.27M148.70M254.23M405.93M463.23M439.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-47.66M39.93M-69.35M-124.12M39.74M90.54M
Operating Cash Flow-43.24M46.68M-59.46M-110.86M50.03M101.24M
Investing Cash Flow28.07M4.04M-9.87M-8.55M7.11M-10.62M
Financing Cash Flow7.98M-50.21M-13.63M52.99M-112.57M10.75M

Fossil Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.69
Price Trends
50DMA
2.73
Positive
100DMA
2.70
Positive
200DMA
2.03
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.32
Positive
RSI
60.68
Neutral
STOCH
37.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.45, above the 50-day MA of 2.73, and above the 200-day MA of 2.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOSL.

Fossil Group Risk Analysis

Fossil Group disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fossil Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Fossil Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$330.27M21.614.40%6.65%0.63%-7.37%
70
Outperform
$378.29M33.7018.19%23.75%59.66%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
56
Neutral
$201.62M-2.86-48.62%-12.89%45.32%
51
Neutral
$116.37M-7.96-2.88%13.81%1.32%-175.81%
42
Neutral
$210.50M-0.88-2353.49%-23.54%-49.41%
40
Underperform
$18.26M-2.034.49%-87.94%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FOSL
Fossil Group
3.69
1.88
103.87%
BGI
Birks & Mayors
0.91
-0.70
-43.48%
MOV
Movado Group
20.85
2.42
13.13%
ELA
Envela
13.23
5.91
80.74%
LANV
Lanvin Group Holdings
1.75
-0.35
-16.67%
BRLT
Brilliant Earth Group
1.81
0.01
0.56%

Fossil Group Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Fossil Group Announces New Equity Distribution Agreement
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

On November 13, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced an Equity Distribution Agreement with Maxim Group LLC to establish an at-the-market equity program, allowing the company to offer and sell up to $50 million in common stock. This strategic move provides Fossil Group with flexibility in raising capital, although there is no obligation to sell any shares, and the agreement will terminate upon reaching the $50 million cap or after twelve months, whichever comes first.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Fossil Group Completes Restructuring Plan with New Financing
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

On November 13, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. completed a restructuring plan involving the exchange of its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 and a concurrent rights offering. The restructuring plan led to the issuance of new 9.500% First-Out First Lien Secured Senior Notes due 2029 and Second-Out Second Lien Secured Senior Notes, with noteholders receiving new notes and warrants. The plan resulted in the cancellation of $150 million of old notes and provided $32.5 million in new financing, impacting the company’s debt structure and stakeholder positions.

Private Placements and FinancingLegal Proceedings
Fossil Group Receives Chapter 15 Recognition Order
Negative
Nov 12, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced that the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas has granted a Chapter 15 recognition order, facilitating the company’s restructuring of its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026. This order aligns with the restructuring plan approved by the High Court of Justice of England and Wales, and the company plans to distribute securities related to this plan shortly, impacting its financial operations and stakeholder interests.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Fossil Group Announces UK Subsidiary Restructuring Plan
Neutral
Nov 10, 2025

On November 10, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Fossil (UK) Global Services Ltd, received a sanction order from the High Court of Justice of England and Wales for a restructuring plan under Part 26A of the UK Companies Act 2006. This plan involves canceling the 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 and issuing new secured senior notes due 2029, aimed at addressing upcoming debt maturity and enhancing liquidity to support the company’s turnaround strategy.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Fossil Group’s Restructuring Plan Approved by Creditors
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025

On November 6, 2025, Fossil Group announced that its subsidiary, Fossil (UK) Global Services Ltd, successfully held a meeting where the restructuring plan for its US $150 million 7.00% Senior Notes was approved by 99.99% of the creditors present. This approval paves the way for a sanction hearing scheduled for November 10, 2025, at the Royal Courts of Justice in London, which is a crucial step in the company’s efforts to restructure its financial obligations.

Private Placements and FinancingLegal Proceedings
Fossil Group Plans Creditor Meeting for Restructuring
Neutral
Nov 4, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced the upcoming Plan Meeting on November 6, 2025, for creditors of its subsidiary, Fossil (UK) Global Services Ltd, regarding the restructuring of US $150 million 7.00% Senior Notes due in 2026. The Plan Creditors will consider approving the restructuring plan, with a subsequent Sanction Hearing scheduled for November 10, 2025, at the Royal Courts of Justice in London, which could impact the company’s financial restructuring efforts.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Fossil Group Amends Senior Notes Governing Law
Neutral
Oct 23, 2025

On October 22, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. received the necessary consents from holders of its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 to adopt amendments changing the governing law to England and Wales and removing a covenant. Subsequently, Fossil proceeded with an English law restructuring plan to implement these changes. The company also announced an extension of its Exchange Offer and Rights Offering expiration to November 10, 2025, due to not meeting the minimum tender condition by the original deadline.

Private Placements and FinancingLegal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Fossil Group Extends Exchange Offer Deadline
Neutral
Oct 16, 2025

On October 16, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced an extension of its exchange offer and consent solicitation for its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026, moving the expiration date to October 22, 2025. The company also updated on its UK Proceeding, where a court order approved a meeting for noteholders to vote on the proceeding scheduled for November 6, 2025. Additionally, Fossil addressed a media report about a potential IPO of a subsidiary in India, clarifying that no such plans are currently underway.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Fossil Group Extends Exchange Offer Deadline
Neutral
Oct 8, 2025

On October 8, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced an extension of the expiration time for its exchange offer and consent solicitation regarding its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026. The deadline has been moved from October 7, 2025, to October 15, 2025. This extension allows more time for stakeholders to participate in the exchange offer, consent solicitation, and concurrent rights offering. The company continues to proceed with its UK Proceeding and may implement amendments to the indenture for the old notes. As of October 7, 2025, a significant portion of the notes had been tendered, indicating strong stakeholder engagement.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Fossil Group Announces Exchange Offer for Senior Notes
Neutral
Sep 25, 2025

On September 25, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced that its registration statements related to an offer to exchange its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026 were declared effective by the SEC. This move is part of a broader strategy involving a rights offering and potential restructuring, which could impact the company’s financial stability and market position. The expiration of the exchange offer and rights offering is anticipated for October 7, 2025, with potential extensions if a UK Proceeding is initiated.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Fossil Group Launches Debt Restructuring Initiative
Positive
Sep 10, 2025

On September 9, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced the commencement of an exchange offer, consent solicitation, and rights offering related to its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026. This strategic financial maneuver aims to restructure the company’s debt by offering new secured senior notes and public warrants to holders of the old notes. The initiative is designed to improve the company’s financial position and provide stakeholders with new investment opportunities, potentially enhancing Fossil Group’s market stability and investor confidence.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025