Fossil Group (FOSL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $126.04M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 200.43K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: -15.35%
• EPS Growth: 61.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,200
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Luxury Goods
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 53,634,346
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 235,149
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 200,428
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.24
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.89
• 1Y Price Target: $3.50
• Price Target Upside: 48.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-14.89% Downside)

Fossil Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial struggles, including declining revenues and negative cash flows. However, positive technical indicators and strategic corporate actions provide some optimism. The valuation remains a concern due to ongoing losses.

Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fossil Group, Inc. is a global design, marketing, and distribution company that specializes in consumer lifestyle and accessories. Founded in 1984 and headquartered in Richardson, Texas, Fossil operates primarily in the watch and jewelry sectors, offering a diverse range of products that include watches, handbags, wallets, and other fashion accessories. The company is known for its innovative designs that blend vintage aesthetics with modern technology, catering to a wide array of consumers through its well-known brands such as Fossil, Skagen, and Misfit, as well as licensed brands like Michael Kors and Armani Exchange.

How the Company Makes Money

Fossil Group generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling watches and fashion accessories both directly to consumers and through wholesale distribution channels. The company's revenue model includes retail sales from its own branded stores and e-commerce platforms, as well as sales through third-party retailers and department stores. Key revenue streams include the sale of traditional and smartwatches, jewelry, and leather goods. Fossil also benefits from partnerships with luxury brands, which allow it to produce and distribute licensed products, further diversifying its offerings. Seasonal promotions, collaborations, and limited-edition releases contribute to sales spikes, while ongoing investments in digital marketing and online sales platforms help to enhance brand visibility and reach.

Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fossil Group faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, negative net income, and high leverage. The negative cash flow and shrinking asset base relative to equity further highlight the company's financial instability.

Income Statement

Fossil Group has been experiencing declining revenues over the past few years, with a significant drop in Gross Profit and persistent negative EBIT and Net Income. The TTM data shows a Gross Profit Margin of 54.85% and a Net Profit Margin of -10.29%, indicating operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative, reflecting struggles in maintaining sales levels.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a high Debt-to-Equity ratio, as total debt exceeds stockholders' equity, indicating high leverage. The Equity Ratio stands at 69.06% in TTM, a decrease from previous years, suggesting a shrinking asset base relative to equity. Return on Equity is negative due to consistent net losses.

Cash Flow

Fossil Group's cash flow statement highlights significant challenges. The Free Cash Flow is negative, with a decline in Operating Cash Flow over time. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is unfavorable, and the Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio indicates inefficiencies in converting sales to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.12B	1.14B	1.41B	1.68B	1.87B	1.61B
Gross Profit	606.65M	597.15M	679.58M	830.70M	966.40M	770.40M
EBITDA	-68.80M	-83.07M	-115.26M	20.44M	197.99M	12.31M
Net Income	-95.95M	-102.67M	-157.09M	-44.16M	25.43M	-95.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	686.02M	763.57M	978.03M	1.24B	1.37B	1.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	78.29M	123.60M	117.77M	198.70M	250.80M	316.00M
Total Debt	322.21M	315.83M	388.67M	416.36M	375.15M	522.90M
Total Liabilities	561.61M	626.84M	726.29M	835.10M	903.30M	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	140.58M	148.70M	254.23M	405.93M	465.40M	440.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-19.66M	39.93M	-69.35M	-124.12M	39.74M	90.54M
Operating Cash Flow	-14.30M	46.68M	-59.46M	-110.86M	50.03M	101.24M
Investing Cash Flow	6.08M	4.04M	-9.87M	-8.55M	7.11M	-10.62M
Financing Cash Flow	-35.27M	-50.21M	-13.63M	52.99M	-112.57M	10.75M

Fossil Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.35
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.75, above the 50-day MA of 1.60, and above the 200-day MA of 1.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.15 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOSL.

Fossil Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELA	73 Outperform	$170.07M	21.04	15.81%	―	25.43%	33.93%
Sector *	67 Neutral	¥277.37B	14.70	6.81%	2.50%	5.06%	-23.65%
MOV	62 Neutral	$254.35M	19.94	3.67%	8.68%	-1.36%	-54.97%
BRLT	57 Neutral	$127.86M	―	-2.83%	―	-4.32%	-144.96%
FOSL	51 Neutral	$126.04M	―	-36.78%	―	-15.35%	61.40%
CTHR	45 Neutral	$1.25M	―	-47.86%	―	-33.51%	36.29%
BGI	38 Underperform	$13.70M	―	89.94%	―	-7.08%	-162.35%

Fossil Group Corporate Events

Fossil Group Announces Debt Exchange Agreement

On August 13, 2025, Fossil Group, Inc. announced a Transaction Support Agreement with holders of 59% of its 7.00% Senior Notes due 2026, facilitating a debt exchange and new financing. This agreement includes a $32.5 million investment in new 9.5% First-Out Senior Secured Notes due 2029 and a $150 million asset-based revolving credit facility, enhancing Fossil’s financial stability and supporting its growth strategy. The restructuring may proceed through the Companies Act 2006 if less than 90% of noteholders participate, impacting the company’s debt structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group Files Current Report on Form 8-K

Fossil Group has filed a Current Report on Form 8-K, which includes information incorporated by reference under Item 3.02. The report clarifies that it is not an offer to sell or solicit the purchase of securities described within.

The most recent analyst rating on (FOSL) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fossil Group stock, see the FOSL Stock Forecast page.

Fossil Group Expands Board with New Appointments

On May 14, 2025, Fossil Group announced the appointment of Pamela Edwards and Wendy Schoppert to its Board of Directors, effective May 16, 2025. Both appointees will also serve on the Audit Committee, expanding the board to ten members, including nine independent directors. Edwards and Schoppert bring extensive leadership experience in retail, finance, and strategic transformation, which is expected to support Fossil Group’s turnaround plan and long-term shareholder value. Their appointments reflect the company’s focus on strengthening its board with seasoned executives to drive growth and transformation.