Fossil Group (FOSL)
NASDAQ:FOSL
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Fossil Group
(NASDAQ:FOSL)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(3.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, ongoing losses, and a return to cash burn), partially offset by improving leverage. Technicals are comparatively strong with price above key moving averages and positive momentum indicators. The earnings call adds moderate support due to tangible cost and margin progress, but guidance indicates continued near-term sales pressure, while valuation remains unattractive given loss-making results and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Gross margin expansion
Sustained gross margin expansion to mid‑50s (Q4 57.4%) was driven by full‑price selling, lower discounts and supply‑chain gains. Higher structural gross margins improve the odds of returning to profitability even if top line recovers slowly, giving operating leverage more impact.
Negative Factors
Multi‑year revenue decline
A shrinking revenue base (roughly halved since 2021) erodes scale advantages and makes fixed costs harder to cover. Persistent top‑line decline reduces bargaining power with partners, limits reinvestment capacity, and lengthens the time needed to reach sustainable growth and margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Gross margin expansion
Sustained gross margin expansion to mid‑50s (Q4 57.4%) was driven by full‑price selling, lower discounts and supply‑chain gains. Higher structural gross margins improve the odds of returning to profitability even if top line recovers slowly, giving operating leverage more impact.
Read all positive factors
Fossil Group (FOSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$301.70M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.53
Revenue Growth-12.89%
EPS Growth45.32%
CountryUS
Employees5,200
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLuxury Goods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.15
Shares Outstanding58,355,465
10 Day Avg. Volume555,824
30 Day Avg. Volume1,024,719
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.21
P/FCF Ratio-3.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda41.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.00Price Target Upside31.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$835.50M
Fossil Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches,...
How the Company Makes Money
Fossil Group primarily makes money by selling fashion accessories—especially watches—through two main routes: (1) wholesale sales to third-party retailers and distributors, and (2) direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales through its own e-commerce sites an...
Fossil Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes significant operational progress and financial improvements—expanded gross margins, substantial SG&A savings, inventory reduction, positive adjusted operating income and a stronger liquidity position—while acknowledging near-term revenue pressure driven by store closures, legacy contract headwinds (royalties, connected-watch exits), and guidance that treats 2026 as a sales trough. Management projects a clear path to return-to-growth and improved margins over the next few years, presenting a constructive but cautious outlook.Positive Updates
Full-Year Net Sales and Turnaround Progress
Net sales for full-year 2025 totaled $1,000,000,000; management describes 2025 as a transformative year with turnaround pillars (refocus on core, rightsizing cost structure, strengthening balance sheet) delivering results ahead of updated guidance.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Revenue Pressure and Q4 Decline
Q4 2025 net sales were $274,000,000, a decline of 20% year-over-year (including approximately 4 percentage points of impact from store closures); company expects 2026 revenue to be down ~4%–6% versus 2025 before returning to growth in Q4 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Net Sales and Turnaround Progress
Net sales for full-year 2025 totaled $1,000,000,000; management describes 2025 as a transformative year with turnaround pillars (refocus on core, rightsizing cost structure, strengthening balance sheet) delivering results ahead of updated guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Fossil guided 2026 worldwide net sales of $945 million to $965 million (down roughly 4%–6% year‑over‑year and including approximately $21 million of retail store‑closure impact), with gross margins expected to remain in the mid‑to‑upper 50s, adjusted operating margin of 3%–5%, and breakeven free cash flow (with the business targeted to be cash‑generating in 2027); management said the year will be second‑half weighted with an expected return to top‑line growth in Q4. For context, Fossil delivered $1.0 billion of net sales in 2025, full‑year gross margin of 55.9% (Q4 gross margin 57.4%), adjusted operating income of $11 million (Q4 and FY), SG&A reductions of over $100 million (down ~16% YoY), ended the year with $96 million of cash, $67 million of revolver availability, $152 million of inventory (down 15% YoY), and 199 stores (49 fewer vs. prior year) with roughly 15 store closures expected in 2026; they also noted that minimum royalty guarantee shortfalls should be materially abated in 2026 and reiterated a longer‑term plan targeting, by 2028, mid‑single‑digit sales growth, high‑single‑digit adjusted operating margins, and positive free cash flow.Fossil Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
27
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.00B | 1.14B | 1.41B | 1.68B | 1.87B |
| Gross Profit | 563.10M | 597.15M | 685.12M | 830.68M | 966.37M |
| EBITDA | 36.00M | -83.07M | -72.95M | 20.44M | 107.74M |
| Net Income | -78.30M | -102.67M | -157.09M | -44.16M | 25.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 689.30M | 763.57M | 978.03M | 1.24B | 1.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.80M | 123.60M | 117.77M | 198.73M | 250.84M |
| Total Debt | 282.20M | 315.83M | 388.67M | 416.36M | 375.15M |
| Total Liabilities | 602.50M | 626.84M | 726.29M | 835.12M | 903.36M |
| Stockholders Equity | 102.83M | 148.70M | 254.23M | 405.93M | 463.23M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -60.46M | 39.93M | -69.35M | -124.12M | 39.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -57.90M | 46.68M | -59.46M | -110.86M | 50.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 22.08M | 4.04M | -9.87M | -8.55M | 7.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.01M | -50.21M | -13.63M | 52.99M | -112.57M |
Fossil Group Technical Analysis
Positive
5.34
Price Trends
4.32
Positive
3.93
Positive
3.13
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Negative
68.22
Neutral
86.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.55, above the 50-day MA of 4.32, and above the 200-day MA of 3.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOSL.
Fossil Group Risk Analysis
Fossil Group disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fossil Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Fossil Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $452.02M | 23.81 | 24.22% | ― | 23.75% | 59.66% | |
70 Outperform | $418.37M | 19.42 | 5.33% | 6.79% | 0.63% | -7.37% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $301.70M | -2.64 | -61.86% | ― | -12.89% | 45.32% | |
44 Neutral | $14.63M | -2.90 | 63.94% | ― | 4.49% | -87.94% | |
44 Neutral | $128.40M | -7.10 | -15.32% | 14.29% | 1.32% | -175.81% | |
42 Neutral | $175.42M | -1.49 | 404.88% | ― | -23.54% | -49.41% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
FOSL
Fossil Group
5.34
4.38
453.37%
BGI
Birks & Mayors
0.81
-0.09
-9.68%
MOV
Movado Group
27.22
15.36
129.59%
ELA
Envela
17.55
11.59
194.46%
LANV
Lanvin Group Holdings
1.50
-0.72
-32.43%
BRLT
Brilliant Earth Group
1.30
-0.02
-1.52%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.