First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $230.99M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.1
• Beta (1Y): -0.09
• Revenue Growth: 3.90%
• EPS Growth: 2.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 187
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 16,511,023
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,378
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,413
• PEG Ratio: 0.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.88
• P/FCF Ratio: -107.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.91
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.00 ▲(19.23% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/24/26

The score is driven primarily by solid profitability and a conservatively levered balance sheet, offset by 2025’s deterioration to negative operating/free cash flow and weaker revenue. Technicals are supportive but overbought, while valuation (P/E ~11) is reasonably attractive.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Very low leverage and a conservative capital structure provide durable financial flexibility. This supports loss absorption in downturns, preserves capacity to originate loans or pursue M&A, and reduces refinancing risk—strengths that materially improve resilience over 2–6 months.

Consistent profitability

Sustained high net profit margins and stable operating profitability indicate a business model that generates reliable earnings. That persistent profitability supports internal capital generation, underwriting flexibility, and the ability to reinvest in products and customer relationships over the medium term.

Wealth-management expansion

Buying an independent advisory firm expands AUM and fee-based revenue, diversifying income away from interest spreads. Integrating advisors and clients strengthens cross-sell potential and creates recurring, less rate-sensitive revenue that can support stability and growth over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Negative cash flow in 2025

A sudden reversal to negative operating and free cash flow undermines liquidity and raises questions about earnings quality. Negative cash generation constrains capital deployment, increases reliance on funding sources, and limits the bank's ability to absorb shocks or sustain shareholder distributions in the near term.

Meaningful revenue decline

A 15.4% top-line decline reduces operating leverage and puts pressure on margins and reinvestment capacity. If sustained, it could force tighter underwriting, slower branch/digital investment, or reduced fee income initiatives, complicating medium-term growth and planning for management.

Small scale, weak loan/deposit growth

A modest asset base and near-flat loan growth limit economies of scale and product breadth versus larger regional peers. Small size and a recent deposit dip increase sensitivity to local competitive pressure and regional economic cycles, constraining durable revenue diversification.

First Northern Community Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Northern Community Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for First Northern Bank of Dixon that provides commercial banking products and services to individuals, and small to medium sized businesses. The company accepts demand deposits, interest-bearing transaction deposits, savings and money market accounts, and time deposits. Its loan portfolio comprises of commercial, commercial real estate, agriculture, residential mortgage, residential construction, and consumer loans. The company also offers credit cards; investment and brokerage services; alternative investment products, and fiduciary and other financial services; and equipment leasing, merchant card processing, payroll, and international banking services through third parties. In addition, it provides issues cashier's checks, safe deposit boxes rental, and other customary banking services. The company operates eleven full-service branches located in the cities of Auburn, Davis, Dixon, Fairfield, Rancho Cordova, Roseville, Sacramento, Vacaville, West Sacramento, Winters, and Woodland; a satellite banking office inside a retirement community in the city of Davis; a residential mortgage loan office in Davis; and a commercial loan office in the Contra Costa County city of Walnut Creek. First Northern Community Bancorp was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Dixon, California.

How the Company Makes Money

First Northern Community Bancorp makes money primarily through interest income generated from its lending activities, including personal, commercial, and real estate loans. The company also earns revenue from fees and service charges associated with deposit accounts, transaction processing, and other banking services. Additionally, the bank benefits from investment income derived from its securities portfolio. Key factors contributing to its earnings include effective interest rate management, maintaining a diversified loan portfolio, and leveraging local market knowledge to build strong customer relationships.

First Northern Community Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and balance-sheet strength are solid (healthy margins/ROE and very conservative leverage), but 2025 showed a meaningful revenue decline and a sharp reversal to negative operating and free cash flow, increasing uncertainty around recent operating momentum and earnings quality.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength, with consistently healthy net profit margins (roughly low-20% to high-20% range) and solid operating profitability across most years. Revenue growth was strong in 2022–2023, but the latest year (2025) shows a meaningful revenue decline (-15.4%), which raises concerns about near-term top-line momentum despite earnings remaining strong.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet leverage appears very conservative: debt is low relative to equity across the period (and reported at zero in 2025), which supports financial flexibility for a regional bank. Equity has also grown versus earlier years, and returns on equity have generally been solid (about 9%–14%), though slightly lower in the latest year versus the 2022–2024 peak levels.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened materially in the latest year: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned negative in 2025 after several years of strong positive cash flow. While prior years show free cash flow broadly tracking net income (around ~1x), the sharp reversal and steep free-cash-flow decline in 2025 increase uncertainty around earnings quality and near-term liquidity generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	73.57M	84.67M	80.56M	62.81M	55.04M
Gross Profit	73.57M	70.63M	71.88M	60.73M	55.63M
EBITDA	27.41M	0.00	32.55M	23.54M	21.25M
Net Income	21.13M	20.03M	21.55M	15.88M	14.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.91B	1.89B	1.87B	1.87B	1.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	145.55M	562.66M	741.28M	826.46M	991.41M
Total Debt	0.00	6.24M	8.13M	10.17M	10.76M
Total Liabilities	1.70B	1.72B	1.71B	1.75B	1.75B
Stockholders Equity	212.02M	176.33M	159.25M	125.04M	150.91M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.97M	19.19M	25.97M	21.44M	24.47M
Operating Cash Flow	-698.00K	19.54M	27.19M	21.78M	25.27M
Investing Cash Flow	47.69M	-53.28M	83.72M	-178.78M	-186.38M
Financing Cash Flow	-16.95M	3.98M	-149.11M	-1.51M	239.85M

First Northern Community Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FNRN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.75, above the 50-day MA of 13.19, and above the 200-day MA of 11.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 82.57 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FNRN.

First Northern Community Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPBK	70 Outperform	$203.64M	7.77	10.99%	3.32%	9.10%	12.36%
FNRN	69 Neutral	$230.99M	11.15	10.86%	―	3.90%	2.47%
VABK	69 Neutral	$216.75M	10.91	10.41%	3.41%	1.11%	14.44%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
EFSI	67 Neutral	$186.61M	21.83	6.63%	3.11%	-1.45%	-31.32%
FRAF	67 Neutral	$237.21M	10.86	9.91%	2.51%	12.06%	10.38%
FXNC	66 Neutral	$241.49M	13.55	7.36%	2.49%	48.94%	11.61%

First Northern Community Bancorp Corporate Events

First Northern Community Bancorp Declares 5% Stock Dividend

For the twelve months ended December 31, 2025, First Northern Community Bancorp reported net income of $21.1 million, or $1.27 per diluted share, a 5.5% increase from 2024, while fourth-quarter 2025 net income rose to $6.0 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, up 2.3% from the same period a year earlier. As of December 31, 2025, total assets edged up 1.0% to $1.91 billion and net loans rose 0.4% to $1.05 billion on the back of higher commercial lending, even as deposits dipped 1.2% to $1.68 billion; the bank’s improved net interest margin to 3.85%, stronger equity base—shareholders’ equity climbed 20.2% to $212.0 million, boosting book value per share 22.6% to $12.92—and the Board’s January 22, 2026 approval of a 5% stock dividend collectively underscored solid profitability, disciplined funding costs and an ongoing emphasis on enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (FNRN) stock is a Buy with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Northern Community Bancorp stock, see the FNRN Stock Forecast page.

First Northern Eases Director Qualification Rules for Finance Roles

On January 22, 2026, First Northern Community Bancorp’s board of directors approved an amendment to its bylaws governing director qualifications. The change allows, by a two‑thirds supermajority vote of the board, an exception for a company director to simultaneously serve as a director, officer, employee, agent, nominee, or attorney of a finance company, expanding flexibility in board composition and potentially broadening the pool of eligible directors with financial industry expertise.

The most recent analyst rating on (FNRN) stock is a Buy with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Northern Community Bancorp stock, see the FNRN Stock Forecast page.