Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.49B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.89M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4313.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 4.55%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,200
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.60
• Shares Outstanding: 1,158,087,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,706,791
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,885,178
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.62
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 557.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 44.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 45.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 28.22
• 1Y Price Target: $12.50
• Price Target Upside: 93.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.66
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $29.85B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▲(0.46% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score is held back mainly by structurally high leverage, cash-flow volatility, and weak technicals (downtrend with bearish momentum), plus an extremely high P/E. These are partially offset by historically strong profitability, continued capital build and generally constructive earnings updates, and modestly positive recent corporate actions.

Positive Factors

Sustained Profitability

Fannie Mae's historically strong net margins and solid returns on equity have produced consistent profitability across most years, supporting earnings quality. Durable margin performance helps generate internal capital, absorb loan losses, and sustain guarantee operations over the medium term.

Scale of Guarantee Book

A $4.1T guarantee book combined with routine large liquidity provision anchors Fannie Mae's central role in U.S. mortgage finance. Scale drives recurring guarantee fee revenue, deepens counterparty relationships, and creates structural demand advantages that persist over months to years.

Growing Net Worth / Capital Buffer

Material net worth growth over the period has increased Fannie Mae's loss-absorbing capacity and supports longer-term resilience. Larger equity buffers reduce tail-risk exposure, improve ability to manage credit volatility, and support disciplined capital strategies under conservatorship constraints.

Negative Factors

Structural High Leverage

Extremely elevated leverage makes Fannie highly sensitive to funding conditions, interest-rate swings, and credit stress. Structural high debt-to-equity amplifies downside risk, constrains strategic flexibility for capital management, and increases reliance on stable market access and policy support over the medium term.

Regulatory Capital Shortfall

A sizable regulatory capital deficit imposes persistent constraints on distributions and strategic options. Meeting capital requirements will likely require ongoing credit-risk transfers, liability management, or policy accommodations, keeping conservatorship and regulator actions central to Fannie's medium-term outlook.

Cash-Flow Volatility & Reporting Issues

Volatile operating cash flows and inconsistent 2025 reporting reduce predictability of internal funding and complicate capital planning. Irregular cash conversion can force greater reliance on external funding, CRT issuance, or balance-sheet adjustments, increasing execution risk over the coming months.

Federal National Mortgage Association Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Federal National Mortgage Association provides a source of financing for mortgages in the United States. It securitizes mortgage loans originated by lenders into Fannie Mae mortgage-backed securities (Fannie Mae MBS). The company operates through two segments, Single-Family and Multifamily. The Single-Family segment securitizes and purchases single-family fixed-rate or adjustable-rate, first-lien mortgage loans, or mortgage-related securities backed by these loans; and loans that are insured by Federal Housing Administration, loans guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs and Rural Development Housing and Community Facilities Program of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, manufactured housing mortgage loans, and other mortgage-related securities. This segment also provides single-family mortgage servicing, as well as credit risk and loss management services. The Multifamily segment securitizes multifamily mortgage loans into Fannie Mae MBS; purchases multifamily mortgage loans; and provides credit enhancement for bonds issued by state and local housing finance authorities to finance multifamily housing. This segment also issues structured MBS backed by Fannie Mae multifamily MBS; buys and sells multifamily agency mortgage-backed securities; invests in low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC) multifamily projects; and offers delegated underwriting and servicing, as well as multifamily mortgage, and credit risk and loss management services. The company serves mortgage banking companies, savings and loan associations, savings banks, commercial banks, credit unions, community banks, insurance companies, private mortgage originators, and state and local housing finance agencies. Federal National Mortgage Association was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Washington, the District of Columbia.

How the Company Makes Money

Fannie Mae generates revenue primarily through the sale of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the collection of guarantee fees. When Fannie Mae purchases mortgage loans from lenders, it pools these loans and issues MBS, which are sold to investors in the capital markets. The company earns income from the guarantee fees charged to lenders for the credit risk associated with these securities. Additionally, Fannie Mae receives income from its investment portfolio and gains from the sale of loans or MBS. Strategic partnerships with various financial institutions and mortgage lenders also contribute to its ability to generate revenue by expanding its loan acquisitions and market presence. Economic factors, such as interest rates and housing market conditions, significantly influence its earnings potential.

Federal National Mortgage Association Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has been strong across most years (healthy net margins and solid ROE), and equity/net worth has grown materially. However, the balance sheet is structurally highly levered (very high debt-to-equity in 2020–2024) and cash flow is volatile (notably negative operating cash flow in 2024). Reported 2025 inconsistencies (revenue spike and debt shown as zero) add uncertainty to the latest trend.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong for most of the period, with net margins consistently healthy (roughly low-50% to low-60% in 2020–2024) and solid returns on equity supporting earnings quality. Revenue growth has been volatile, including meaningful declines in 2020 and 2022, a rebound in 2023, and a slight dip in 2024. The 2025 annual revenue figure spikes dramatically versus prior years and reported operating profitability fields are shown as zero, creating a comparability/data-quality concern despite continued positive net income and a still-solid net margin (~14%).

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is highly levered in the core years shown, with debt-to-equity extremely elevated (generally ~45x to ~156x from 2020–2024), which increases sensitivity to credit performance, funding conditions, and market shocks. Equity has grown materially over time (from ~$25B in 2020 to ~$95B in 2024 and ~$109B in 2025), which is a positive buffer. However, the reported 2025 total debt is shown as zero while assets remain over $4T, which is inconsistent with prior years and limits confidence in the latest leverage signal.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed and can swing sharply: operating cash flow was strongly positive in 2021–2023, turned negative in 2024, and returned to positive in 2025. Free cash flow generally tracks operating cash flow and is reported at or near net income in most years, which looks supportive on the surface. The biggest weakness is volatility (including very large outflows in 2020 and 2024), suggesting earnings may not translate into cash consistently year-to-year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	160.56B	31.05B	31.94B	24.53B	36.61B
Gross Profit	156.81B	31.05B	31.94B	24.53B	36.61B
EBITDA	147.99B	21.27B	21.96B	16.23B	27.95B
Net Income	14.36B	16.98B	17.41B	12.92B	22.18B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.32T	4.35T	4.33T	4.31T	4.23T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.45B	78.81B	68.71B	123.38B	43.28B
Total Debt	4.18T	4.23T	4.22T	4.22T	4.16T
Total Liabilities	4.21T	4.26T	4.25T	4.25T	4.18T
Stockholders Equity	109.01B	94.66B	77.68B	60.28B	47.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	23.99B	-10.52B	11.88B	41.13B	47.21B
Operating Cash Flow	23.99B	-10.52B	11.88B	43.83B	47.21B
Investing Cash Flow	186.90B	157.79B	99.15B	90.13B	90.85B
Financing Cash Flow	-206.85B	-137.17B	-130.17B	-154.74B	-145.05B

Federal National Mortgage Association Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.47
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FNMA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.90, below the 50-day MA of 9.16, and below the 200-day MA of 10.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FNMA.

Federal National Mortgage Association Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
PFSI	58 Neutral	$4.68B	9.65	12.55%	0.90%	25.42%	190.85%
RKT	52 Neutral	$46.27B	-127.17	-0.58%	―	22.56%	―
FNMA	50 Neutral	$7.49B	4,313.33	14.11%	―	4.55%	―
UWMC	50 Neutral	$6.91B	34.98	15.17%	8.64%	-8.66%	―

Federal National Mortgage Association Corporate Events

Fannie Mae Launches Cash Tender Offers for CAS Notes

On February 23, 2026, Fannie Mae launched fixed-price cash tender offers to purchase any and all of a wide range of outstanding Connecticut Avenue Securities (CAS) Notes across multiple 2017–2023 series, with individual classes priced slightly above their original principal amount. The offers, managed by BofA Securities and Wells Fargo Securities and supported by Global Bondholder Services Corporation, are set to expire at 5:00 p.m. New York time on February 27, 2026, with settlement expected on March 3–4, 2026, enabling Fannie Mae to actively manage its CAS liabilities and potentially streamline its risk-transfer capital structure while providing liquidity and a premium exit to noteholders.

Holders who validly tender their CAS Notes by the expiration time will be eligible to receive the stated tender consideration, which incorporates February 25, 2026 certificate percentages, plus accrued and unpaid interest up to but not including the settlement date. By targeting any and all of the specified CAS tranches, including those held through various CAS REMIC trusts in which Fannie Mae is the sole beneficial owner, the transaction could modestly reduce outstanding credit-risk transfer obligations and refine the company’s funding mix without altering its core role in the mortgage market.

The most recent analyst rating on (FNMA) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal National Mortgage Association stock, see the FNMA Stock Forecast page.

FHFA Re-Elects Fannie Mae Board, Ensuring Leadership Continuity

On February 3, 2026, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, acting as conservator and exercising the stockholder rights of Fannie Mae, re-elected all current members of Fannie Mae’s Board of Directors by written consent, including Chair William J. Pulte and Vice Chair Michael Stucky. The directors were appointed to serve until the next annual meeting of shareholders or until the conservator again elects directors, reinforcing FHFA’s ongoing control over Fannie Mae’s governance structure and signaling continuity in the company’s leadership under conservatorship, with implications for corporate oversight and stability for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (FNMA) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Federal National Mortgage Association stock, see the FNMA Stock Forecast page.