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Flywire (FLYW)
NASDAQ:FLYW

Flywire (FLYW) AI Stock Analysis

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FLYW

Flywire

(NASDAQ:FLYW)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(7.83% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial progress (strong gross margins, improving profitability, low leverage, and better cash generation) and constructive earnings-call outlook for growth and margin expansion. These positives are tempered by weak-to-mixed technical signals and a stretched valuation (high P/E), alongside near-term guided gross margin pressure and some macro/execution risk.
Positive Factors
Durable High Gross Margins
Sustained gross margins near the mid-60s% indicate a scalable, high-value payments and software platform with pricing power. High margins provide durable cash flow cushion as volumes grow, enabling reinvestment in product, client integrations and margin-expanding operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Strengthening Cash Generation & Low Leverage
Consistent operating cash flow and returning-to-positive free cash flow demonstrate improving cash conversion and earnings quality. Combined with a conservatively financed balance sheet and net cash position, this supports capital allocation flexibility (buybacks, M&A, product investment) and lowers financial risk over the medium term.
Enterprise Client Wins, Low Churn & Pipeline
Strong net new client additions, very low churn and accelerating signed ARR indicate sticky, enterprise-grade product adoption. High enterprise penetration and deeper integrations create switching costs and cross-sell potential, supporting durable revenue growth and higher lifetime customer value across verticals.
Negative Factors
Gross Margin Pressure from Large Ramps
Ramping payment-processing contracts with thin early economics can structurally compress reported margins until scale and pricing normalization occur. Even if temporary, these programs increase margin volatility, delay margin expansion targets, and require sustained execution to convert lower-percentage mix into higher gross profit dollars over time.
Education Demand & Visa Uncertainty
Significant assumed visa declines directly affect cross-border student payments, a core revenue stream. Education sensitivity to macro/regulatory visa trends adds structural growth risk and increases reliance on non-education vertical expansion to sustain company-wide growth over the coming 2–6 months.
Volatile Operating Profitability & Trend Confidence
Fluctuating operating margins and an inconsistent reported 2025 revenue figure reduce clarity on sustainable operating leverage. This makes forecasting and achieving multi-year margin targets more execution-sensitive and elevates the risk that near-term investments or mix shifts will delay consistent, durable profitability improvements.

Flywire (FLYW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Flywire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFlywire Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a payment enablement and software company in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its payment platform and network, and vertical-specific software help clients to get paid and help their customers to pay. The company's platform facilitates payment flows across multiple currencies, payment types, and payment options; and provides direct connections to alternative payment methods, such as Alipay, Boleto, PayPal/Venmo, and Trustly. It serves education, healthcare, travel, and business to business organizations. Flywire Corporation was formerly known as peerTransfer Corporation and changed its name to Flywire Corporation in December 2016. Flywire Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyFlywire generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged on payments processed through its platform. The company earns a percentage of each transaction, which varies based on the volume and value of the payments, as well as the specific services utilized by its clients. Additionally, Flywire may charge setup fees, subscription fees for its software services, and other ancillary fees associated with its payment processing solutions. Key partnerships with educational institutions, healthcare providers, and travel companies further enhance its revenue streams by providing a steady flow of transactions and expanding its customer base, while the growing demand for seamless international payments continues to drive the company's growth.

Flywire Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas drive growth and which might need strategic adjustments.
Chart InsightsTransaction revenue is the clear growth engine, with pronounced seasonal Q3 spikes that reflect education and travel cycles and have powered management’s upward guidance; at the same time Platform & App Usage is accelerating—evidence the SFS product and upsells are scaling—giving Flywire more recurring, higher-margin levers. That mix creates upside from cross-sell and B2B momentum, but education headwinds (international student declines and Canada softness) plus a shift toward domestic transactions have compressed gross margins, so future beat-or-miss outcomes hinge on sustaining product-led adoption and margin recovery.
Data provided by:The Fly

Flywire Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operating and financial highlights: robust top-line growth (Q4 revenue +32.6% FX‑neutral), healthy transaction volume growth (+42%), expanded adjusted EBITDA margin and sustained free cash flow generation. The company signed significant new clients, showed strong SFS and pipeline momentum, and has a solid balance sheet with active buybacks. Notable near-term challenges include expected gross margin pressure in 2026 from payment-processing ramps, mix and FX effects, and conservative education assumptions tied to visa uncertainty. Management characterizes the margin pressure as temporary and provided multi-year targets that suggest margin recovery and continued profitability expansion. Overall, positives (strong growth, profitability, cash generation, and pipeline) outweigh the disclosed short-term operational and macro headwinds.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $152.7M, up 32.6% FX-neutral year-over-year; FX provided a ~270 basis point reported tailwind. Organic FX-neutral growth excluding Sertifi was 20%.
Transaction Volume and Revenue Momentum
Transaction revenue increased 33% year-over-year driven by a 42% increase in transaction payment volume.
Platform Revenue Acceleration
Platform & Other revenues grew 50% year-over-year, with platform-related volumes up 11%, helped by Sertifi and healthcare patient affordability momentum.
Gross Profit and Margin Expansion
Adjusted gross profit was $93.7M, up nearly 24% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margin at 61.3% despite mix and FX settlement dynamics.
Profitability and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 16.6% in Q4 (up ~190 bps YoY) and full-year GAAP net income was $13.5M. Free cash flow grew from $5M in 2021 to $62M in 2025.
Client Wins and Low Churn
Signed ~750 net new clients in 2025; revenue churn in education and travel remained below 1%. Over 90% of education revenue and 70%+ of travel revenue came from enterprise clients (> $100k LTM).
Sales & Pipeline Momentum
Signed ARR grew over 35% YoY; pipeline creation entering 2026 increased ~35% YoY. SFS (Student Financial Software) ARR from signed deals grew more than threefold year-over-year.
Balance Sheet Strength and Buybacks
Net cash position was $200M. $118M of share repurchases deployed under the program with ~$180M remaining authorized; diluted shares declined year-over-year (negative net dilution for 2025).
2026–2027 Profitability Outlook
2026 guidance: FX-neutral revenue growth 15%–21%; adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of ~150–350 bps to reach ~22.5% at midpoint. Targeting 24%–25% adjusted EBITDA margin for 2027.
Capital Efficiency Targets
Expected 2026 free cash flow conversion of 70%–75%; GAAP net income expected to grow ~3–4x vs 2025. Target net dilution ~3% and stock-based compensation targeted ~10% of revenue in 2026.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Gross Margin Pressure from Payment Processing Ramps
Company expects adjusted gross profit margin to decline ~200–300 basis points in 2026 due to early-stage ramp economics from large payment-processing programs (e.g., Cleveland Clinic) and B2B invoiced cross-sell; margin headwind is expected to be largely temporary and normalize by 2027.
Mix & FX-Driven Margin Volatility
Q4 experienced roughly 2 points of FX settlement pressure versus the prior-year benefit; management noted mix-driven margin shifts (domestic volume and card penetration) that can reduce percentage margins even as gross profit dollars grow.
Education Macro Uncertainty (Visas)
2026 planning assumes U.S. first-year visas down ~30% and Canada down ~10% (UK/Australia flat), producing conservative education assumptions: U.S. education revenue expected to grow low single digits with cross-border modestly down under their visa assumptions.
Second-Half 2026 Deceleration Risk
Guidance assumes some revenue growth deceleration in H2 2026 due to tougher year-over-year comps and timing of ramp contributions, increasing execution sensitivity in the back half of the year.
Stablecoin Adoption Early and Small
Stablecoin initiatives are live and processing payments, but demand is described as small so far; management views it as a developing internal and external use case, not yet material to results.
Temporary Margin Impact from Domestic Payments Mix
Expansion in domestic payments and attachment of payment processing to large customers can lower gross margin percentages in the short run (despite adding gross profit dollars), contributing to 2026 margin headwinds.
Company Guidance
Flywire guided 2026 FX‑neutral revenue growth of roughly 15%–21% (including ~2 points from B2B/Cleveland Clinic ramps and ~1 point inorganic from the Sertifi acquisition), with Q1 midpoint growth of ≈28% FX‑neutral (including a ~7‑point lift from lapping Sertifi, ~3–4 points from payment‑processing ramps and a 4–5 point FX tailwind). They expect adjusted gross profit margin to decline ~200–300 bps year‑over‑year (excluding ramp activity nearer the lower end at ~200 bps) while gross profit dollars should grow in the mid‑teens (Q1 gross profit dollar growth ~20%–22% at spot, ~7 points from Sertifi); the payment‑processing mix pressure is described as temporary and largely complete by end of 2026, with normalization toward a 100–200 bps annual mix shift thereafter. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to expand ~150–350 bps to ~22.5% at the midpoint (with 2027 ambition of 24%–25%), adjusted EBITDA should convert to free cash flow at ~70%–75% in 2026, GAAP net income is forecast to grow ~3–4x vs. 2025, and capital allocation priorities include continued disciplined buybacks ($118M deployed, ≈$180M remaining authorization) alongside a ~$200M net cash position, a target of ~10% of revenue for equity compensation in 2026 and a net dilution goal of about 3% over time.

Flywire Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials show strong multi-year revenue scaling with durable gross margins (~63–65%), improving profitability (near breakeven in 2024 and positive net income in 2025 data), a low-debt balance sheet, and strengthening operating/free cash flow (FCF positive in 2021 and 2023–2024). The main offsets are thin/volatile operating profitability and reduced confidence from an inconsistent 2025 annual revenue figure.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Revenue has scaled rapidly from 2020–2024 with consistently strong gross margins (~63–65%), showing a solid underlying business model. Profitability has improved meaningfully (net losses in 2020–2022, near-breakeven in 2024, and positive net income in 2025 annual data), but operating profitability has been volatile (EBIT negative in 2022–2023 and still low in 2024). The 2025 annual revenue figure appears inconsistent versus prior years, which reduces confidence in trend quality for that period.
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
The balance sheet looks conservatively financed with very low debt relative to equity across 2021–2024, providing flexibility and lowering financial risk. Equity and assets have generally grown over time, supporting expansion. Returns on equity have improved from negative levels in 2021–2023 to slightly positive in 2024–2025, though overall returns remain modest; 2020 shows negative equity, indicating the company previously carried a weaker capitalization profile.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Cash generation has strengthened materially: operating cash flow is positive from 2021 onward and free cash flow is positive in 2021 and 2023–2024, indicating improving cash discipline as the business scales. Free cash flow is also broadly in line with reported earnings in recent years, which supports earnings quality. The main weak spot is earlier volatility (negative operating and free cash flow in 2020 and negative free cash flow in 2022), suggesting cash performance can fluctuate through investment cycles.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue623.02M492.14M403.09M289.38M201.15M
Gross Profit382.67M314.65M255.75M181.44M130.96M
EBITDA46.04M19.76M11.78M-23.84M-14.91M
Net Income13.50M2.90M-8.57M-39.35M-28.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.25B1.12B1.08B674.29M639.85M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments355.00M611.09M654.61M349.18M385.36M
Total Debt0.001.72M1.47M1.81M25.94M
Total Liabilities418.14M307.68M293.61M192.38M157.64M
Stockholders Equity835.17M814.77M786.12M481.90M482.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow98.83M90.54M74.61M-2.21M10.45M
Operating Cash Flow100.17M91.47M80.63M4.88M17.13M
Investing Cash Flow-194.23M-215.80M-38.78M-24.68M-62.91M
Financing Cash Flow-78.40M-37.63M263.42M-23.97M327.51M

Flywire Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price12.52
Price Trends
50DMA
13.15
Negative
100DMA
13.31
Negative
200DMA
12.57
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.50
Negative
RSI
56.21
Neutral
STOCH
59.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLYW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.50, below the 50-day MA of 13.15, and below the 200-day MA of 12.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FLYW.

Flywire Risk Analysis

Flywire disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Flywire reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Flywire Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$2.93B46.6412.80%44.34%45.96%
67
Neutral
$759.32M14.3124.55%12.94%356.32%
65
Neutral
$356.77M28.5910.27%2.41%0.68%-67.84%
65
Neutral
$1.37B125.20-0.29%22.71%-111.24%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
47
Neutral
$1.42B-3.64-46.77%1.84%-27.74%
47
Neutral
$345.35M-2.98-15.59%-0.95%-456.64%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FLYW
Flywire
12.52
1.61
14.76%
HCKT
The Hackett Group
13.50
-16.16
-54.48%
CTLP
Cantaloupe
10.44
0.39
3.88%
PSFE
Paysafe
6.41
-12.83
-66.68%
AI
C3ai
10.31
-13.57
-56.83%
PAY
Paymentus Holdings
24.18
-3.32
-12.07%

Flywire Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Flywire Updates Investor Presentation Highlighting Growth Momentum
Positive
Feb 24, 2026

On February 23, 2026, Flywire appointed former Visa and PayPal executive Patrick Blanc as Chief Technology Officer, succeeding David King, who has fully transitioned to Chief Product Officer and Co‑President of Global Education. On February 24, 2026, the company also made a new investor presentation available on its website, highlighting strategic priorities and financial performance.

Flywire reported strong results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with Q4 revenue up 34% year on year to $157.5 million and total payment volume up 35.6% to $9.3 billion, supported in part by the Sertifi acquisition. The company neared break-even net income, expanded adjusted EBITDA to $25.4 million with higher margins, repurchased $10 million of stock, fully repaid Sertifi-related debt, and underscored commercial momentum through robust ARR growth, low churn, and deeper integrations in education and global payments.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLYW) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Flywire stock, see the FLYW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Flywire Restructures Leadership, Elevates CTO to Co-President
Neutral
Jan 14, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Flywire Corporation announced changes to its leadership structure, appointing long-time Chief Technology Officer David King as Chief Product Officer & Co-President of Global Education to reflect the growing importance of product strategy, software innovation and AI-driven workflows across its verticals. King, whose background in education software has been central to building Flywire’s product suite, will oversee software product strategy company-wide while taking on expanded business and client responsibilities in the Education vertical, as the company launches a search for a new CTO focused on operating global, large-scale payments and software platforms. The CTO role will continue to report to the CEO and concentrate on executing the software roadmap and maintaining platform reliability, scalability and security, with King remaining CTO until a successor is appointed to ensure a smooth transition. In connection with these changes, Flywire and King executed an amendment to his August 1, 2025 employment agreement on January 13, 2026, updating his title and responsibilities without altering his compensation arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLYW) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Flywire stock, see the FLYW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 26, 2026