Cantaloupe (CTLP) AI Stock Analysis

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Cantaloupe

(NASDAQ:CTLP)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:

$10.00

▲(6.50%Upside)

Cantaloupe's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are significant factors driving the score. Technical indicators show a positive trend, but with limited momentum. The valuation is appealing, although the absence of a dividend yield is noted. Overall, Cantaloupe is well-positioned for growth in the Information Technology Services sector.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

CTLP reported Q3/25 revenue of $75.4 million representing an increase of 11.1% YOY with adjusted EBITDA of $13.9 million representing a 36.6% increase.

Market Opportunities

Management now estimates that it operates in an $18.3 billion TAM, growing at a 10% compound annual rate, supported by multiple secular tailwinds.

Strategic Initiatives

CTLP's share price jumped by almost 10% after reports that the company engaged investment bankers to explore strategic options, including a possible sale.

Negative Factors

Revenue Challenges

CTLP shares are down 6% after reporting mixed March-quarter results; revenue was $4.3 million below our estimate as subscription/transaction fee revenue slowed to 10%.

Weather Impact

Transaction revenue in Q3/25 was materially impacted by adverse weather events and storms, which led to abnormally low traffic for customer locations.

Cantaloupe (CTLP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$649.49M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)709.57K

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8

Beta (1Y)0.95

Revenue Growth12.51%

EPS Growth390.09%

CountryUS

Employees375

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength84

IndustryInformation Technology Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.65

Shares Outstanding73,058,464

10 Day Avg. Volume947,337

30 Day Avg. Volume709,571

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.04

Price to Book (P/B)2.85

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio91.46

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.57

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.44

Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.88

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$12.00

Price Target Upside27.80% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

Cantaloupe Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP) is a technology company that specializes in providing software and hardware solutions for the unattended retail industry. The company operates primarily in the sectors of financial technology and vending solutions, offering a comprehensive suite of services that include payment processing, logistics, and analytics. Cantaloupe's core products and services are designed to enhance the operational efficiency and profitability of vending machine operators, micro-market providers, and other unattended retail businesses.

How the Company Makes MoneyCantaloupe makes money through a diversified revenue model that includes transaction fees, subscription services, and hardware sales. The company's primary revenue stream comes from its payment processing services, where it collects transaction fees each time a consumer makes a purchase through one of its connected devices. Additionally, Cantaloupe generates recurring revenue by offering subscription-based services for its cloud-based platform, which provides customers with data analytics, inventory management, and remote monitoring solutions. The sale of point-of-sale hardware, such as card readers and telemetry devices, also contributes to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions, hardware manufacturers, and retail operators enhance its market presence and support its revenue generation.

Cantaloupe Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: 13.54%|

Next Earnings Date:Sep 10, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Despite some challenges such as weather impacts and economic uncertainty affecting equipment sales, Cantaloupe reported strong revenue growth, increased EBITDA, and significant cash generation. The company also made notable progress in product development and client acquisition.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Total revenue increased 11% year over year to $75.4 million, driven by 10% growth in both transaction and subscription revenues.

Equipment Revenue Increase

Equipment revenue increased by 18% to $10.2 million compared to Q3 fiscal year 2024.

Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $13.9 million, marking a 37% increase from the prior year.

Strong Cash Generation

Q3 saw one of the best quarters for cash generation, with $22.4 million from operating activities.

Gross Margin Expansion

Total adjusted gross margin expanded to 41.6% from 39.6% in the same quarter last year.

Notable Wins and Product Expansion

Cantaloupe gained new enterprise clients and saw strong demand for SmartStore and Engage Pulse products.

Negative Updates

Weather Impact on Transaction Revenue

Adverse weather events in January and February reduced transaction revenue by approximately $2 million.

Economic Uncertainty Affecting Equipment Sales

There was a pullback in large equipment purchases due to economic uncertainty, though this rebounded in April.

Company Guidance

During the Cantaloupe third-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance for the fiscal year. The total revenue for the quarter increased by 11% year-over-year to $75.4 million, with transaction and subscription revenues each growing by 10%. Equipment revenue saw an 18% increase, reaching $10.2 million. Despite weather-related disruptions impacting transaction revenue, the company remains confident in its revised fiscal year guidance due to a strong rebound in April. The total adjusted gross margin expanded to 41.6%, while adjusted EBITDA rose by 37% to $13.9 million. Cantaloupe revised its fiscal year 2025 outlook, projecting total revenues between $302 million and $308 million, representing growth of 13% to 15%. The company also anticipates a GAAP net income between $64 million and $70 million, driven by the release of a $42.2 million valuation allowance on deferred tax assets. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be around $96 million, with operating cash flow projected to stay between $24 million and $32 million.

Cantaloupe Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cantaloupe demonstrates strong revenue and profitability growth, supported by a low leverage balance sheet and improved cash flow generation. Challenges include a decrease in cash and equivalents and moderate cash conversion efficiency.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Cantaloupe has shown impressive revenue growth over the years, with a revenue increase from $163.2 million in 2020 to $292.6 million in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. The gross profit margin stands at 40.3% for TTM, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin has significantly improved, reaching 20.5% in TTM from negative figures in previous years, indicating strong profitability advancements. EBITDA and EBIT margins have also shown positive trends, suggesting healthy operational performance.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet reflects a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.008 in TTM 2025, indicating low leverage. The equity ratio has remained above 60%, showing financial stability. Return on equity has improved to 24.9% in TTM, demonstrating effective use of shareholders' funds. However, the decrease in cash and equivalents from previous periods might indicate potential liquidity management challenges.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cantaloupe's free cash flow has returned to positive in TTM, growing from previous negative values, which is a positive indicator of cash generation capability. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 0.42, suggesting moderate cash conversion efficiency. While free cash flow growth reflects improvement, consistent positive operating cash flow will be crucial for sustaining growth.

TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
292.64M	268.60M	243.64M	195.20M	166.94M	163.15M
	Gross Profit
118.03M	102.65M	81.24M	54.20M	54.03M	46.27M
	EBIT
20.70M	14.17M	760.00K	-993.00K	-4.32M	-18.30M
	EBITDA
39.19M	28.12M	11.95M	4.33M	1.19M	-28.58M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
59.91M	11.99M	633.00K	-1.70M	-8.71M	-40.59M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
88.56M	58.92M	50.93M	68.13M	88.14M	31.71M
	Total Assets
235.91M	335.57M	289.61M	255.63M	237.67M	181.02M
	Total Debt
22.63M	47.33M	40.93M	16.99M	17.96M	20.51M
	Net Debt
-65.93M	-11.59M	-9.99M	-51.14M	-70.17M	-11.20M
	Total Liabilities
86.75M	151.10M	122.02M	95.66M	83.14M	79.67M
	Stockholders Equity
149.16M	184.47M	167.59M	159.97M	154.53M	101.35M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
7.50M	12.81M	-1.96M	-17.96M	6.34M	-16.68M
	Operating Cash Flow
25.18M	27.75M	14.19M	-8.71M	8.18M	-14.14M
	Investing Cash Flow
-27.76M	-18.64M	-51.87M	-12.23M	-1.83M	-2.49M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.18M	-1.06M	20.48M	920.00K	50.07M	20.88M

Cantaloupe Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price9.39

Price Trends

50DMA

8.11

Positive

100DMA

8.52

Positive

200DMA

8.47

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.30

Negative

RSI

69.30

Neutral

STOCH

90.16

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTLP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.59, above the 50-day MA of 8.11, and above the 200-day MA of 8.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTLP.

Cantaloupe Risk Analysis

Cantaloupe disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cantaloupe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cantaloupe Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLMB	78 Outperform	$485.13M	24.72	22.21%	0.64%	42.25%	65.02%
CTLP	78 Outperform	$649.49M	11.82	28.20%	―	12.51%	390.09%
LYTS	77 Outperform	$487.87M	22.75	10.42%	1.22%	17.89%	-23.37%
PRTH	66 Neutral	$670.73M	―	57.39%	―	15.76%	82.78%
FARO	66 Neutral	$815.58M	―	-0.34%	―	-4.76%	97.93%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$11.80B	10.31	-7.45%	2.91%	7.43%	-7.78%
RPAY	54 Neutral	$493.35M	―	-1.64%	―	2.26%	85.37%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CTLP

Cantaloupe

9.82

2.81

40.09%

FARO

Faro Technologies

42.60

24.39

133.94%

LYTS

Lsi Industries

16.57

1.84

12.49%

CLMB

Climb Global Solutions

107.50

51.23

91.04%

RPAY

Repay Holdings

5.26

-5.61

-51.61%

PRTH

Priority Technology Holdings

8.54

4.31

101.89%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.