Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)
NYSE:FICO
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Fair Isaac
(NYSE:FICO)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$1,107.00
▲(1.37% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
Strong profitability and cash generation, reinforced by a positive earnings call with solid growth and margin expansion, support the score. Offsetting this are meaningful balance-sheet risk (negative equity and high debt), weak technical momentum with the stock trading well below key moving averages, and a high P/E that increases sensitivity to any growth slowdown.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & Margins
Sustained very high gross and operating margins indicate durable pricing power and scalable SaaS/score economics. Strong margins support reinvestment in product, absorb modest revenue mix shifts, and underpin consistent earnings/cash generation over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Weak Balance Sheet / Negative Equity
Negative equity and a rising debt stock create structural financial risk: they reduce covenant and refinancing flexibility, increase sensitivity to higher rates or slower cash flow, and limit ability to absorb shocks despite strong operating cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability & Margins
Sustained very high gross and operating margins indicate durable pricing power and scalable SaaS/score economics. Strong margins support reinvestment in product, absorb modest revenue mix shifts, and underpin consistent earnings/cash generation over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Fair Isaac (FICO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$25.91B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)354.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)63.3
Beta (1Y)1.38
Revenue Growth15.91%
EPS Growth29.42%
CountryUS
Employees3,718
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.33
Shares Outstanding23,722,134
10 Day Avg. Volume260,693
30 Day Avg. Volume354,122
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.89
Price to Book (P/B)-20.78
Price to Sales (P/S)18.22
P/FCF Ratio47.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,913.92Price Target Upside75.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)41.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.49B
Fair Isaac Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytic, software, and data management products and services that enable businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates th...
How the Company Makes Money
FICO primarily makes money through two major revenue streams: (1) Scores and (2) Software.
1) Scores (credit scoring royalties/fees): FICO licenses its credit scoring algorithms (including versions of the FICO Score) and earns revenue when scores...
Fair Isaac Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFair Isaac Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong overall revenue growth (+16% YoY), significant outperformance in the Scores business (+29% YoY) and momentum in software bookings and platform ARR (record ACV, platform ARR +33% YoY). Profitability and margins expanded materially (non-GAAP operating margin +432 bps), free cash flow and buybacks were robust, and strategic product/partner progress (Direct Licensing expansion, Plaid partnership, Gartner recognition) supports future growth. Counterbalancing items include declines in non-platform revenues/ARR, modestly rising operating expenses, a substantial debt balance, regional revenue concentration, and uncertainty around timing for regulatory approvals and LLPA/grid changes. Overall, the positive growth, margin expansion, cash generation and platform traction outweigh the challenges and uncertainty discussed on the call.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q1 fiscal 2026 revenues of $512 million, up 16% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Non-Platform Declines
Non-platform ARR declined 8% YoY to $463 million; non-platform revenues declined 13% YoY. On-premises revenues declined 12% YoY, driven by lower point-in-time revenues and end-of-life products.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q1 fiscal 2026 revenues of $512 million, up 16% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated fiscal 2026 guidance (will revisit on the Q2 call) while saying the company is “well positioned to exceed” it but is holding guidance steady given macro/Fed uncertainty; Q1 results underpinning that view included revenues of $512M (+16% YoY), GAAP net income $158M (+4%) and GAAP EPS $6.61 (+8%), non‑GAAP net income $176M (+22%) and non‑GAAP EPS $7.33 (+27%), free cash flow of $165M in the quarter and $718M over the last four quarters (+7% YoY), and $163M of share repurchases (95,000 shares at an average $1,707). Segment and other metrics called out as supporting drivers were Scores revenue $305M (+29%) and Software revenue $207M (+2%); record software ACV bookings $38M and trailing‑12‑month ACV $119M (+36%); total software ARR $766M (+5%) with platform ARR $303M (+33%) = 40% of ARR (platform NRR 122%, company NRR 103%); Q1 non‑GAAP operating margin 54% (+432 bps YoY); cash & marketable investments $218M; total debt $3.2B at a 5.22% weighted rate; and a maintained full‑year net tax rate expectation of ~24%.Fair Isaac Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.06B | 1.99B | 1.72B | 1.51B | 1.38B | 1.32B |
| Gross Profit | 1.71B | 1.64B | 1.37B | 1.20B | 1.08B | 984.07M |
| EBITDA | 1.01B | 951.19M | 761.49M | 663.81M | 560.74M | 538.83M |
| Net Income | 657.79M | 651.95M | 512.81M | 429.38M | 373.54M | 392.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.85B | 1.87B | 1.72B | 1.58B | 1.44B | 1.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 162.03M | 134.14M | 150.67M | 136.78M | 133.20M | 195.35M |
| Total Debt | 3.23B | 3.07B | 2.24B | 1.90B | 1.91B | 1.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.66B | 3.61B | 2.68B | 2.26B | 2.24B | 1.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.81B | -1.75B | -962.68M | -687.99M | -801.95M | -110.94M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 735.08M | 769.88M | 607.41M | 464.68M | 503.42M | 416.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 758.89M | 778.81M | 632.96M | 468.92M | 509.45M | 423.82M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -47.51M | -43.72M | -27.99M | -15.95M | -5.67M | 137.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -739.59M | -750.33M | -592.92M | -455.00M | -547.16M | -523.57M |
Fair Isaac Technical Analysis
Negative
1092.04
Price Trends
1273.19
Negative
1490.78
Negative
1533.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-64.59
Negative
41.71
Neutral
82.28
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FICO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1092.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1094.20, below the 50-day MA of 1273.19, and below the 200-day MA of 1533.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -64.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FICO.
Fair Isaac Risk Analysis
Fair Isaac disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fair Isaac reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Fair Isaac Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $9.64B | 41.10 | 16.89% | ― | 20.82% | 41.82% | |
72 Outperform | $10.98B | 81.46 | 6.81% | ― | 18.50% | 207.45% | |
69 Neutral | $25.91B | 63.31 | -43.31% | ― | 15.91% | 29.42% | |
69 Neutral | $30.63B | 66.22 | 7.97% | ― | 13.35% | -60.76% | |
65 Neutral | $41.10B | 438.37 | 3.24% | ― | 26.63% | -46.13% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
56 Neutral | $16.84B | -250.38 | -13.32% | ― | 19.51% | 53.35% |
* Technology Sector Average
FICO
Fair Isaac
1,092.04
-758.02
-40.97%
WDAY
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119.17
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TEAM
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63.62
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TTD
Trade Desk
20.25
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DT
Dynatrace
36.80
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DDOG
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116.50
23.32
25.03%
Fair Isaac Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fair Isaac Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Fair Isaac Corporation closed a $1.0 billion private offering of 6.250% senior unsecured notes due 2034 to qualified institutional buyers and certain non-U.S. investors. The notes, issued under an indenture with U.S. Bank Trust ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fair Isaac Announces $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Fair Isaac Corp. priced a $1.0 billion private offering of 6.250% senior unsecured notes due 2034, sold at par to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A and to certain non‑U.S. investors under Regulation S. The com...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Fair Isaac Launches $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, FICO announced it had begun a $1.0 billion private offering of senior unsecured notes due 2034 to qualified institutional buyers in the U.S. and to non-U.S. investors under applicable securities exemptions. The company plans to ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Fair Isaac Shareholders Approve Governance Changes and Directors
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
At its annual meeting held on March 4, 2026, Fair Isaac shareholders elected all eight board nominees, confirming the existing slate of directors with strong majorities and solid turnout from the 23.8 million shares eligible to vote. Investors als...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.