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Fair Isaac
(NYSE:FICO)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$1,285.00
▲(19.70% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/08/26
The score is driven by very strong profitability and cash generation plus a bullish earnings update with raised guidance and clear platform traction. These positives are tempered by elevated leverage/negative equity and a mixed technical picture, while valuation remains premium at ~35x earnings with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistently strong operating cash flow and near‑one‑to‑one free cash flow conversion provide durable liquidity to fund investments, service leverage, and support capital returns. Over a 2–6 month horizon this underpins flexibility to execute buybacks or refinance while sustaining operations.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage & Negative Equity
Material rise in debt and deeply negative equity increase refinancing and covenant risk, and heighten sensitivity to interest costs. Even with strong cash flow, elevated leverage constrains strategic flexibility and raises the stakes on sustaining near‑term operating performance to meet obligations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistently strong operating cash flow and near‑one‑to‑one free cash flow conversion provide durable liquidity to fund investments, service leverage, and support capital returns. Over a 2–6 month horizon this underpins flexibility to execute buybacks or refinance while sustaining operations.
Read all positive factors
Fair Isaac Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFair Isaac (FICO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$29.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)351.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)39.9
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth22.57%
EPS Growth34.99%
CountryUS
Employees3,718
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)31.84
Shares Outstanding23,190,907
10 Day Avg. Volume351,791
30 Day Avg. Volume351,143
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.89
Price to Book (P/B)-20.78
Price to Sales (P/S)18.22
P/FCF Ratio47.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,620.93Price Target Upside50.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)42.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.55B
Fair Isaac Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fair Isaac Corporation, also known as FICO, delivers advanced analytics, software solutions, and data management services designed to help businesses optimize, automate, and interconnect their crucial decision-making processes. These offerings rea...
How the Company Makes Money
FICO primarily makes money from two major revenue streams: (1) Scores and (2) Software (often referred to as decision management/analytics). Scores revenue is generated by licensing FICO’s credit scoring algorithms and selling credit scores and re...
Fair Isaac Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple clear strengths: robust revenue and earnings growth, raised full-year guidance, strong platform momentum (high ARR growth and very high platform NRR), exceptional free cash flow and record share repurchases, plus strategic product and pricing moves to accelerate adoption of FICO Score 10T. Offsetting items include declines in legacy/non-platform ARR and revenues, regulatory/competitive uncertainty tied to FHFA and VantageScore developments, modestly rising operating and interest expenses, and geographic revenue concentration. On balance, the positive operational and financial beats, platform traction, and upgraded guidance materially outweigh the challenges noted, though management maintains conservative volume assumptions and is monitoring regulatory timing.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Earnings Growth
Q2 revenue of $692 million, up 39% year-over-year; GAAP net income $264 million, up 63% YoY; GAAP EPS $11.14, up 69% YoY; non-GAAP net income $297 million, up 54% YoY; non-GAAP EPS $12.50, up 60% YoY.
Negative Updates
Non-Platform Declines
Non-platform ARR declined 8% YoY to $440 million; non-platform revenues declined 12% YoY; non-platform NRR was 90%, below 100% and well under platform NRR (136%). Management cited migrations, end-of-life products and some usage declines as drivers.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Earnings Growth
Q2 revenue of $692 million, up 39% year-over-year; GAAP net income $264 million, up 63% YoY; GAAP EPS $11.14, up 69% YoY; non-GAAP net income $297 million, up 54% YoY; non-GAAP EPS $12.50, up 60% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
FICO raised full‑year fiscal 2026 guidance to $2.45 billion in revenue (up 23% year‑over‑year), GAAP net income of $825 million with GAAP EPS of $35.60 (up 27% and 34%, respectively) and non‑GAAP net income of $946 million with non‑GAAP EPS of $40.45 (up 29% and 35%), while reiterating conservative score‑volume assumptions and no anticipated share loss to competition; Q2 results that underpin the raise included $692 million revenue (+39% YoY), GAAP net income of $264 million (+63%) and GAAP EPS $11.14 (+69%), non‑GAAP net income $297 million (+54%) and non‑GAAP EPS $12.50 (+60%), Q2 free cash flow $214 million (trailing‑4‑quarter FCF $867 million, +28%), Q2 non‑GAAP operating margin 65% (up 712 bps YoY), total software ARR $789 million (+10% YoY) with platform ARR $349 million (44% of ARR, platform ARR growth +49%), Q2 platform ACV bookings $28 million (TTM $126 million, +36%), and continued capital returns including $605 million of buybacks in Q2 (484,000 shares at $1,251 avg) plus an additional $170 million (164,000 shares at $1,040 avg) since April 1; management expects modestly higher operating expense dollars into H2, an operating tax rate of 25–26% (effective ~24%), $272 million in cash, $3.64 billion total debt (5.5% weighted average rate) and modestly higher interest expense into the back half.Fair Isaac Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.26B | 1.99B | 1.72B | 1.51B | 1.38B | 1.32B |
| Gross Profit | 1.90B | 1.64B | 1.37B | 1.20B | 1.08B | 984.07M |
| EBITDA | 1.16B | 951.19M | 761.49M | 663.81M | 560.74M | 538.83M |
| Net Income | 759.63M | 651.95M | 512.81M | 429.38M | 373.54M | 392.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.05B | 1.87B | 1.72B | 1.58B | 1.44B | 1.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 219.42M | 134.14M | 150.67M | 136.78M | 133.20M | 195.35M |
| Total Debt | 3.66B | 3.07B | 2.24B | 1.90B | 1.91B | 1.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.15B | 3.61B | 2.68B | 2.26B | 2.24B | 1.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.10B | -1.75B | -962.68M | -687.99M | -801.95M | -110.94M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 892.68M | 769.88M | 607.41M | 464.68M | 503.42M | 416.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 907.33M | 778.81M | 632.96M | 468.92M | 509.45M | 423.82M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -44.98M | -43.72M | -27.99M | -15.95M | -5.67M | 137.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -791.85M | -750.33M | -592.92M | -455.00M | -547.16M | -523.57M |
Fair Isaac Technical Analysis
Positive
1073.52
Price Trends
1144.61
Positive
1172.18
Positive
1412.88
Negative
Market Momentum
10.50
Negative
64.80
Neutral
91.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FICO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1073.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1170.95, below the 50-day MA of 1144.61, and below the 200-day MA of 1412.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 10.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FICO.
Fair Isaac Risk Analysis
Fair Isaac disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fair Isaac reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Fair Isaac Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $13.05B | 83.14 | 6.00% | ― | 18.82% | -66.60% | |
77 Outperform | $92.68B | 676.61 | 3.78% | ― | 29.54% | -21.11% | |
76 Outperform | $29.47B | 39.91 | -43.08% | ― | 22.57% | 34.99% | |
73 Outperform | $8.98B | 21.46 | 16.91% | ― | 15.55% | 6.91% | |
63 Neutral | $33.44B | 42.05 | 10.41% | ― | 13.70% | 76.27% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
55 Neutral | $21.28B | -100.90 | -16.70% | ― | 24.74% | 49.81% |
* Technology Sector Average
FICO
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Fair Isaac Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Fair Isaac Expands Share Repurchase with New Authorization
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 5, 2026, Fair Isaac amended its credit agreement to add an unsecured incremental term loan of $1.5 billion maturing in 2028 and drew the full amount to fund an accelerated share repurchase program. The move increases the company’s le...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fair Isaac Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Fair Isaac Corporation closed a $1.0 billion private offering of 6.250% senior unsecured notes due 2034 to qualified institutional buyers and certain non-U.S. investors. The notes, issued under an indenture with U.S. Bank Trust ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Fair Isaac Announces $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Fair Isaac Corp. priced a $1.0 billion private offering of 6.250% senior unsecured notes due 2034, sold at par to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A and to certain non‑U.S. investors under Regulation S. The com...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Fair Isaac Launches $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, FICO announced it had begun a $1.0 billion private offering of senior unsecured notes due 2034 to qualified institutional buyers in the U.S. and to non-U.S. investors under applicable securities exemptions. The company plans to ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.