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National Vision Holdings
(NASDAQ:EYE)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▼(-22.12% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/23/26
The score is anchored by improving financial performance (stronger cash flow and a return to profitability) and a constructive earnings outlook with reaffirmed FY2026 guidance and meaningful margin expansion in Q1. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages and negative MACD) and a relatively high P/E for a still-thin-margin retailer.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for store openings, e‑commerce investments and targeted buybacks while supporting debt reduction. Meaningful FCF (roughly 60% of net income TTM) underpins capital allocation flexibility despite a retail operating profile.
Negative Factors
Thin Profitability
Very low operating margins and returns limit financial resiliency and capital returns. In a low‑margin retail model small cost or volume shocks can quickly erode earnings, constraining reinvestment, deleveraging pace and management’s ability to absorb input cost pressure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable funding for store openings, e‑commerce investments and targeted buybacks while supporting debt reduction. Meaningful FCF (roughly 60% of net income TTM) underpins capital allocation flexibility despite a retail operating profile.
Read all positive factors
National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.61B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.2
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth9.20%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees13,138
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.58
Shares Outstanding80,116,670
10 Day Avg. Volume1,667,558
30 Day Avg. Volume2,208,021
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.35
Price to Book (P/B)2.36
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio27.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.00Price Target Upside12.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.06B
National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading optical retail chain across the United States, conducting business through its various subsidiary companies. The company's operations are categorized into two primary divisions: Owned & Host, an...
How the Company Makes Money
National Vision primarily makes money by selling optical products and related services through its retail and vision-center network. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Eyeglasses and frames: revenue from selling frames and completed prescriptio...
National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized solid operational progress: revenue grew 6.6%, comps rose 4.5%, adjusted operating margin expanded 210 bps to 10.2%, and adjusted EPS improved to $0.45. Management reinforced strategic initiatives—premiumization, new lens/brand launches, Ray-Ban/Oakley Meta expansion, store segmentation, CRM improvements, and a modernized e-commerce platform—and reaffirmed FY2026 guidance. Key near-term challenges are a traffic disruption from the recent website replatform (affecting exam bookings and lower-funnel marketing), suppressed cash-pay traffic (-1.2% traffic) and inventory build (+22%) to support premium assortments. Management views these lowlights as temporary and offset by ticket/mix tailwinds, cost savings, and structural initiatives. Net of positives and negatives, the tone and fundamentals point to continued improvement and confidence in the company’s multi-quarter plan.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Net revenue increased 6.6% year-over-year to $544.0 million in Q1 FY2026.
Negative Updates
Website Replatform Traffic Disruption
Replatform of americasbest.com in early Q2 disrupted search/social integrations and reduced lower-funnel traffic and exam bookings; quarter-to-date comps are tracking in the low single-digit range while recovery progresses sequentially.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Net revenue increased 6.6% year-over-year to $544.0 million in Q1 FY2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
National Vision reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance: net revenue $2.03–$2.09 billion with adjusted comparable store sales growth of 3%–6%, adjusted operating income $107–$133 million (D&A $88–$92M) implying ~100 bps of adjusted operating margin expansion at the midpoint vs FY25 (ex 53rd week), and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.85–$1.09 (assumes ~82 million diluted shares); interest expense is forecast at $14–$16 million and an effective tax rate of ~28% (ex RSU/option vesting). CapEx is expected to be $73–$78 million to support ~30–35 new store openings (weighted to America's Best) and ~10–15 closures for net new growth of ~20–25 stores, and the company remains on track to realize about $10 million of annualized cost savings in 2026. Management noted Q1 performance that underpins the guide: Q1 net revenue $544 million, adjusted comps +4.5%, adjusted operating margin 10.2% (+210 bps YoY), adjusted EPS $0.45, adjusted operating income $55.5 million; balance sheet/cash highlights include cash $67.9 million, total liquidity $361.2 million, net debt $241.8 million (net debt/adj. EBITDA 0.8x TTM), inventory +22% YoY, and Q1 operating cash flow $61.7 million. Quarter cadence expects stronger back-half comp and margin performance (Q1 and Q3 more favorable; Q2 and Q4 flat to modest growth); Q2 comps are tracking in the low single digits amid a temporary website replatform disruption.National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.02B | 1.99B | 1.82B | 2.13B | 1.64B | 2.08B |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.13B | 977.01M | 1.17B |
| EBITDA | 169.56M | 149.78M | 89.58M | 53.12M | 158.73M | 276.74M |
| Net Income | 46.59M | 29.60M | -28.50M | -65.90M | 42.12M | 128.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.02B | 2.13B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.29B | 2.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 67.90M | 38.71M | 73.95M | 149.90M | 229.43M | 305.80M |
| Total Debt | 692.13M | 694.60M | 816.03M | 923.15M | 1.00B | 973.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.12B | 1.26B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 898.01M | 869.53M | 816.33M | 829.42M | 901.11M | 925.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 105.58M | 73.45M | 38.14M | 58.26M | 5.65M | 163.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 175.76M | 146.29M | 133.65M | 173.03M | 119.20M | 258.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -74.65M | -76.61M | -96.09M | -115.82M | -110.89M | -92.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -113.36M | -104.62M | -113.34M | -136.81M | -84.56M | -234.32M |
National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
25.68
Price Trends
18.38
Positive
22.17
Negative
24.63
Negative
Market Momentum
0.52
Negative
64.70
Neutral
64.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.68, above the 50-day MA of 18.38, and above the 200-day MA of 24.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EYE.
National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis
National Vision Holdings disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $20.17B | 17.41 | 44.77% | ― | 11.30% | 4.23% | |
67 Neutral | $17.70B | 15.78 | 40.05% | 5.46% | 0.99% | 31.91% | |
63 Neutral | $4.04B | 5.95 | -52.38% | 4.16% | -1.40% | -4.34% | |
62 Neutral | $1.37B | 7.87 | 22.86% | ― | 0.77% | 2.73% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $1.61B | 35.20 | 5.36% | ― | 9.20% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $16.81B | 275.00 | 1.31% | 3.33% | 4.79% | -92.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EYE
National Vision Holdings
20.57
-4.77
-18.82%
BBY
Best Buy Co
85.37
22.05
34.83%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
121.00
2.69
2.27%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
20.66
-8.94
-30.20%
SBH
Sally Beauty
14.80
4.93
49.95%
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
466.14
-18.94
-3.90%
National Vision Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
National Vision Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
At its June 17, 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, National Vision Holdings, Inc. reported that shareholders re-elected eleven director nominees to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, indicating broad support for the existing board and continui...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
National Vision Reaffirms 2026 Outlook, Highlights E-Commerce Progress
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
National Vision Holdings, Inc. said it will reaffirm its fiscal 2026 outlook during the William Blair 46th Annual Growth Stock Conference on June 3, 2026, confirming previously issued full-year guidance. The company has completed the migration of ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.