National Vision Holdings (EYE)
NASDAQ:EYE
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National Vision Holdings
(NASDAQ:EYE)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▼(-31.85% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score reflects improving financial performance and a supportive earnings outlook (reaffirmed guidance and margin expansion), tempered by very weak technicals (price below all major moving averages with bearish momentum) and only moderate balance-sheet/margin resilience for a low-margin retailer. Valuation is reasonable but not a major offset given the lack of dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Store footprint and institutional partnerships
A large, branded store network plus exclusive AAFES military relationships provide durable customer access and recurring demand. Physical presence drives eye-exam-to-product conversion, and sole-provider status on bases creates a sticky, institutional revenue stream less sensitive to retail churn.
Negative Factors
Thin operating profitability
Very thin operating profits and low ROE leave little buffer for cost inflation or demand shocks. For a retail chain with fixed-store costs, modest EBIT exposes earnings to volatility and constrains the company’s ability to fund growth or absorb margin compression without pressuring capital returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Store footprint and institutional partnerships
A large, branded store network plus exclusive AAFES military relationships provide durable customer access and recurring demand. Physical presence drives eye-exam-to-product conversion, and sole-provider status on bases creates a sticky, institutional revenue stream less sensitive to retail churn.
Read all positive factors
National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.5
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth9.20%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees13,411
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.58
Shares Outstanding80,116,670
10 Day Avg. Volume2,472,791
30 Day Avg. Volume2,406,028
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)2.36
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio27.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.56Price Target Upside15.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.06B
National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products;...
How the Company Makes Money
National Vision makes money primarily by selling optical products and related services to consumers through its retail and e-commerce channels. Key revenue streams include: (1) Sale of eyeglasses, including frames and prescription lenses (often so...
National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized solid operational progress: revenue grew 6.6%, comps rose 4.5%, adjusted operating margin expanded 210 bps to 10.2%, and adjusted EPS improved to $0.45. Management reinforced strategic initiatives—premiumization, new lens/brand launches, Ray-Ban/Oakley Meta expansion, store segmentation, CRM improvements, and a modernized e-commerce platform—and reaffirmed FY2026 guidance. Key near-term challenges are a traffic disruption from the recent website replatform (affecting exam bookings and lower-funnel marketing), suppressed cash-pay traffic (-1.2% traffic) and inventory build (+22%) to support premium assortments. Management views these lowlights as temporary and offset by ticket/mix tailwinds, cost savings, and structural initiatives. Net of positives and negatives, the tone and fundamentals point to continued improvement and confidence in the company’s multi-quarter plan.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Net revenue increased 6.6% year-over-year to $544.0 million in Q1 FY2026.
Negative Updates
Website Replatform Traffic Disruption
Replatform of americasbest.com in early Q2 disrupted search/social integrations and reduced lower-funnel traffic and exam bookings; quarter-to-date comps are tracking in the low single-digit range while recovery progresses sequentially.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Net revenue increased 6.6% year-over-year to $544.0 million in Q1 FY2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
National Vision reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance: net revenue $2.03–$2.09 billion with adjusted comparable store sales growth of 3%–6%, adjusted operating income $107–$133 million (D&A $88–$92M) implying ~100 bps of adjusted operating margin expansion at the midpoint vs FY25 (ex 53rd week), and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.85–$1.09 (assumes ~82 million diluted shares); interest expense is forecast at $14–$16 million and an effective tax rate of ~28% (ex RSU/option vesting). CapEx is expected to be $73–$78 million to support ~30–35 new store openings (weighted to America's Best) and ~10–15 closures for net new growth of ~20–25 stores, and the company remains on track to realize about $10 million of annualized cost savings in 2026. Management noted Q1 performance that underpins the guide: Q1 net revenue $544 million, adjusted comps +4.5%, adjusted operating margin 10.2% (+210 bps YoY), adjusted EPS $0.45, adjusted operating income $55.5 million; balance sheet/cash highlights include cash $67.9 million, total liquidity $361.2 million, net debt $241.8 million (net debt/adj. EBITDA 0.8x TTM), inventory +22% YoY, and Q1 operating cash flow $61.7 million. Quarter cadence expects stronger back-half comp and margin performance (Q1 and Q3 more favorable; Q2 and Q4 flat to modest growth); Q2 comps are tracking in the low single digits amid a temporary website replatform disruption.National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.02B | 1.99B | 1.82B | 2.13B | 1.64B | 2.08B |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.13B | 977.01M | 1.17B |
| EBITDA | 170.26M | 152.42M | 89.58M | 53.12M | 158.73M | 276.74M |
| Net Income | 46.59M | 29.60M | -28.50M | -65.90M | 42.12M | 128.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.02B | 2.13B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.29B | 2.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 67.90M | 38.71M | 73.95M | 149.90M | 229.43M | 305.80M |
| Total Debt | 692.13M | 694.60M | 816.03M | 923.15M | 1.00B | 973.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.12B | 1.26B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 898.01M | 869.53M | 816.33M | 829.42M | 901.11M | 925.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 105.58M | 73.45M | 38.14M | 58.26M | 5.65M | 163.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 175.76M | 146.29M | 133.65M | 173.03M | 119.20M | 258.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -74.65M | -76.61M | -96.09M | -115.82M | -110.89M | -92.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -113.36M | -104.62M | -113.34M | -136.81M | -84.56M | -234.32M |
National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
25.68
Price Trends
22.62
Negative
24.97
Negative
25.56
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.93
Negative
28.64
Positive
31.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.81, above the 50-day MA of 22.62, and above the 200-day MA of 25.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 28.64 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EYE.
National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis
National Vision Holdings disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $22.17B | 19.47 | 44.07% | ― | 9.71% | 1.00% | |
62 Neutral | $1.27B | 6.75 | 22.86% | ― | 0.77% | 2.73% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $16.42B | 13.80 | 38.34% | 5.46% | 0.99% | 31.91% | |
57 Neutral | $1.34B | 27.49 | 5.36% | ― | 9.20% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $4.04B | 5.18 | -52.40% | 4.16% | -1.40% | -4.34% | |
50 Neutral | $13.58B | 222.76 | 1.31% | 3.33% | 4.79% | -92.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EYE
National Vision Holdings
16.08
-5.24
-24.58%
BBY
Best Buy Co
74.98
8.87
13.41%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
97.26
-26.40
-21.35%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
18.63
-7.57
-28.91%
SBH
Sally Beauty
12.84
3.77
41.57%
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
500.77
27.66
5.85%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.