National Vision Holdings (EYE)
NASDAQ:EYE
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National Vision Holdings
(NASDAQ:EYE)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
▼(-2.80% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened recent financial performance (loss-making years and uncertain near-term cash flow signals) and bearish technical momentum (trading below key moving averages). These negatives are partially offset by a strong, optimistic earnings call with specific FY2026 profitability and margin expansion guidance, while valuation remains a headwind due to a high P/E and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Margin Recovery
Sustained revenue growth and a 160bp operating margin expansion in FY2025 show durable pricing power and operational leverage. Consistent comp-store gains and larger operating income indicate the company can scale margins through merchandising, pricing and cost discipline over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Historical Profitability Weakness
Two consecutive loss-making years and negative margins mean the company started from a weak profitability base; even with recent recovery, restoring consistent multi-year net income and returns on equity will require sustained execution and exposes the plan to execution risk if macro or traffic trends worsen.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Margin Recovery
Sustained revenue growth and a 160bp operating margin expansion in FY2025 show durable pricing power and operational leverage. Consistent comp-store gains and larger operating income indicate the company can scale margins through merchandising, pricing and cost discipline over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)69.4
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth-1.58%
EPS Growth85.04%
CountryUS
Employees13,411
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding79,437,190
10 Day Avg. Volume1,486,266
30 Day Avg. Volume1,472,849
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)2.36
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio27.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.38
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.88Price Target Upside39.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.07B
National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products;...
How the Company Makes Money
National Vision makes money primarily by selling optical products and related services to consumers through its retail and e-commerce channels. Key revenue streams include: (1) Sale of eyeglasses, including frames and prescription lenses (often so...
National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong execution across merchandising, pricing, marketing, operations and technology leading to healthy top-line growth, significant margin expansion, improved product mix, and solid cash generation. Management acknowledged near-term traffic softness driven by a deliberate customer-mix shift toward more profitable cohorts and seasonal/weather/calendar distortions, but provided clear multi-year plans to scale premium frames, lens initiatives, smart eyewear rollout, CRM, and operating-cost savings. Given the magnitude of reported financial improvements and strategic progress relative to the contained and described risks, the tone is optimistic and constructive.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Net revenue grew 9% to $1,990,000,000 in FY2025; adjusted comparable store sales were +6%; adjusted operating income increased 56% to $102,500,000; adjusted operating income margin expanded 160 basis points to 5.2%; adjusted EPS rose to $0.80 from $0.52 in FY2024.
Negative Updates
Overall Traffic Softness
Total customer traffic declined ~0.5% for FY2025 and fell ~2.5% in Q4 as cash pay/customer segments softened; management acknowledged cash-pay customers remain more fickle and a potential short-term headwind to traffic.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Net revenue grew 9% to $1,990,000,000 in FY2025; adjusted comparable store sales were +6%; adjusted operating income increased 56% to $102,500,000; adjusted operating income margin expanded 160 basis points to 5.2%; adjusted EPS rose to $0.80 from $0.52 in FY2024.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2026 the company guided to net revenue of $2.03 billion to $2.09 billion, adjusted comparable store sales growth of 3%–6%, adjusted operating income of $107 million to $133 million (with D&A of $88M–$92M and roughly 100 bps of adjusted operating margin expansion at the midpoint vs. 2025, excluding the 53rd week), interest expense of $14M–$16M, an effective tax rate of ~28% (ex‑RSU/option impacts), adjusted diluted EPS of $0.85–$1.09 (assumes ~82.0M diluted shares), capital expenditures of $73M–$78M, roughly 30–35 new store openings and 10–15 closures (net new ~20–25 stores), expectation to realize ~$10M of annualized cost savings this year, and a 52‑week fiscal profile with Q1/Q3 driving stronger y/y margin improvement while Q2/Q4 are expected to be flat to modestly up; the outlook also assumes a 2025‑like mix of ticket and traffic and includes product/merchandising targets (e.g., premium lens materials to approach ~60% and anti‑reflective to ~50%, and branded frame mix rising toward ~70% by year‑end).National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
43
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.99B | 1.82B | 2.13B | 1.64B | 2.08B |
| Gross Profit | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.13B | 977.01M | 1.17B |
| EBITDA | 152.42M | 89.58M | 53.12M | 158.73M | 276.74M |
| Net Income | 29.60M | -28.50M | -65.90M | 42.12M | 128.24M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.13B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.29B | 2.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 38.71M | 73.95M | 149.90M | 229.43M | 305.80M |
| Total Debt | 694.60M | 816.03M | 923.15M | 1.00B | 973.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.26B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 869.53M | 816.33M | 829.42M | 901.11M | 925.98M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 73.45M | 38.14M | 58.26M | 5.65M | 163.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 146.29M | 133.65M | 173.03M | 119.20M | 258.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -76.61M | -96.09M | -115.82M | -110.89M | -92.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -104.62M | -113.34M | -136.81M | -84.56M | -234.32M |
National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
25.72
Price Trends
26.90
Negative
27.12
Negative
26.06
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.70
Positive
47.91
Neutral
43.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 25.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.26, below the 50-day MA of 26.90, and below the 200-day MA of 26.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EYE.
National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis
National Vision Holdings disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $1.35B | 7.65 | 23.43% | ― | -0.42% | 31.64% | |
63 Neutral | $14.78B | 259.07 | 1.44% | 3.33% | 3.26% | -25.41% | |
63 Neutral | $23.30B | 25.17 | 44.07% | ― | 5.45% | 4.28% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $3.61B | 7.11 | -44.22% | 4.16% | -1.04% | -20.88% | |
51 Neutral | $2.04B | 69.37 | 3.47% | ― | -1.58% | 85.04% | |
51 Neutral | $13.48B | 12.85 | 38.54% | 5.46% | -0.95% | -48.28% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EYE
National Vision Holdings
25.72
14.22
123.65%
BBY
Best Buy Co
64.48
7.92
14.00%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
107.41
-2.25
-2.05%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
17.94
-8.72
-32.70%
SBH
Sally Beauty
13.95
5.60
67.07%
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
532.82
177.87
50.11%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.