National Vision Holdings (EYE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.91B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: -12.14%
• EPS Growth: 64.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,411
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 79,053,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,653,773
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,354,947
• PEG Ratio: -1.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 547.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.88
• 1Y Price Target: $20.22
• Price Target Upside: -16.45% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.50 ▲(1.24%Upside)

The stock is buoyed by strong technical indicators and positive earnings call results, with notable revenue and earnings growth. However, financial challenges such as negative profitability and valuation concerns due to negative earnings weigh on the overall score.

Positive Factors

New Brands Introduction

Introducing brands like Ted Baker and L.A.M.B is expected to increase the percentage of frame assortment above the $99 price point to 40%, enhancing customer attraction.

Strategic Initiatives

Strategic initiatives like pricing actions, product assortment, recruitment, and retention are driving growth opportunities for National Vision Holdings.

Technology and Customer Experience

New technology such as remote exam capability and the rollout of OptikamPad is expected to improve the in-store experience and appeal to optometrists.

Negative Factors

Cash Pay Resilience

Managed care has returned to stable pre-COVID replenishment frequency, while cash pay has not been as resilient.

Pricing Gap

Management sees opportunity to methodically improve ticket and pricing over the next few years, addressing a meaningful price gap between EYE and peers.

Store Openings Slowdown

This year’s slowdown in new store openings largely reflects efforts to shore up operations and implement new capabilities to increase traffic and efficiencies.

National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) is one of the largest optical retail companies in the United States. The company operates primarily through its retail brands, including America's Best Contacts & Eyeglasses and Eyeglass World, as well as through its various partnership and host brands. National Vision offers a comprehensive range of eye care services and products, including eye exams, eyeglasses, contact lenses, and other optical accessories. Its mission is to deliver affordable and accessible eye care to a broad consumer base.

How the Company Makes Money

National Vision Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of optical products and services. The company's key revenue streams include retail sales of eyeglasses and contact lenses, eye examination fees, and sales of optical accessories. National Vision operates a low-cost business model that allows it to offer competitive pricing while maintaining profitability. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with retailers such as Walmart and Fred Meyer, where it manages vision centers under their respective brands. Additionally, National Vision's focus on expanding its store footprint and investing in digital initiatives enhances its ability to reach more customers and drive revenue growth.

National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Vision Holdings faces challenges in profitability with a negative net income and EBIT margins. The balance sheet indicates moderate leverage and some liquidity concerns, although cash flows show potential for improvement with positive operating cash flow trends.

Income Statement

The income statement indicates challenges with profitability and revenue growth. Gross profit margin remains strong at around 54.5%, but the company has reported a negative EBIT and net income, highlighting ongoing operational challenges. Revenue growth is stagnant, with a slight increase in the TTM period compared to the previous year. The negative profit margins suggest the need for cost management and revenue enhancement strategies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderately high at 0.96, indicating a reliance on debt financing. However, the equity ratio is decent at around 41.6%, providing some stability. The declining cash and equivalents suggest potential liquidity constraints, although the equity base has shown resilience. Overall, the balance sheet indicates moderate financial health with room for improvement in debt management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some positive trends, with operating cash flow consistently positive and improving slightly in the TTM period. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, indicating potential challenges in sustaining capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, reflecting good cash generation relative to reported losses. Efforts to manage capital expenditure effectively could enhance free cash flow sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.85B	1.82B	2.13B	2.01B	2.08B	1.71B
Gross Profit	1.01B	1.06B	1.13B	1.08B	1.17B	925.14M
EBITDA	92.81M	89.58M	53.12M	161.23M	272.03M	178.59M
Net Income	-26.00M	-28.50M	-65.90M	42.12M	128.24M	36.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.01B	2.01B	2.17B	2.29B	2.29B	2.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	80.02M	73.95M	149.90M	229.43M	305.80M	373.90M
Total Debt	805.11M	816.03M	923.46M	1.00B	973.25M	1.04B
Total Liabilities	1.17B	1.19B	1.34B	1.39B	1.37B	1.43B
Stockholders Equity	836.16M	816.33M	829.42M	901.11M	925.98M	906.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	46.19M	38.14M	58.26M	5.65M	163.42M	158.16M
Operating Cash Flow	141.90M	133.65M	173.03M	119.20M	258.94M	234.98M
Investing Cash Flow	-98.11M	-96.09M	-115.82M	-110.89M	-92.90M	-76.41M
Financing Cash Flow	-113.58M	-113.34M	-136.81M	-84.56M	-234.32M	176.28M

National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.17, above the 50-day MA of 18.58, and above the 200-day MA of 13.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 83.19 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EYE.

National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ULTA	78 Outperform	$21.28B	18.49	50.44%	―	1.06%	-0.29%
MNSO	76 Outperform	$5.68B	16.79	24.98%	3.59%	9.80%	-6.33%
RVLV	75 Outperform	$1.52B	30.29	11.97%	―	9.09%	106.50%
SBH	71 Outperform	$992.80M	5.56	29.74%	―	0.17%	20.26%
EYE	65 Neutral	$1.91B	―	-2.95%	―	-12.14%	64.36%
BBWI	64 Neutral	$6.36B	8.03	-52.83%	2.67%	-0.93%	-4.07%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.65B	11.16	-7.38%	3.11%	1.59%	-23.30%

National Vision Holdings Corporate Events

National Vision Holdings Elects Directors at Annual Meeting

On June 18, 2025, National Vision Holdings held its annual meeting of stockholders, where eight directors were elected for terms expiring at the 2026 meeting. Additionally, stockholders approved the executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (EYE) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Vision Holdings stock, see the EYE Stock Forecast page.

National Vision Holdings Announces New CEO Appointment

On April 28, 2025, National Vision Holdings announced a CEO succession plan, appointing Alex Wilkes as the new Chief Executive Officer effective August 1, 2025. Reade Fahs, the current CEO, will transition to the role of Executive Chairman. This leadership change is part of the company’s strategic transformation and aims to continue its growth trajectory. Alex Wilkes, who joined National Vision as president in August 2024, brings extensive experience from his previous roles at CooperVision and EssilorLuxottica. The transition is expected to ensure a seamless continuation of the company’s strategic direction, with Mr. Wilkes’ leadership anticipated to drive new growth opportunities.