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National Vision Holdings Inc (EYE)
NASDAQ:EYE
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National Vision Holdings (EYE) AI Stock Analysis

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EYE

National Vision Holdings

(NASDAQ:EYE)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$23.00
▼(-0.95% Downside)
National Vision Holdings' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges and weak technical indicators. Despite strong earnings call results and strategic initiatives, the company's high debt reliance and negative valuation metrics weigh heavily on the score. The cautious outlook for the second half of the year further tempers optimism.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
National Vision reported sales 4% ahead of consensus expectations on a healthy comp of 5.9%, more than double the Street expectation, with general strength across all four banners, and notable outperformance of its core America’s Best banner.
Market Position
EYE appears attractively valued vs. peers, with expectations for a better multiple for EYE stock due to sustained growth and margin expansion.
Strategic Initiatives
The 'Every Eye Deserves Better' campaign is expected to be a dramatic shift in EYE’s historical marketing approach, potentially accelerating customer growth.
Negative Factors
Margin Recovery Risks
The largest risk here is a more significant acceleration in store growth, which could delay margin recovery and likely run into issues with doctor availability.
Traffic Trends
Traffic was negative and a second-half comp deceleration is implied.

National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, and Vista Optical military, as well as Vision Center branded stores; and offers health maintenance organization and optometric services. As of January 1, 2022, the company operated through 1,278 retail stores, as well as various e-commerce websites. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Vision Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of eyewear products, including both prescription and non-prescription glasses, contact lenses, and related accessories. The company operates several well-known retail chains, such as Vision Centers located within Walmart, as well as standalone stores under the brands America's Best Contacts & Eyeglasses and Eyeglass World. Additional revenue streams include eye examinations and vision services offered in-store. Significant partnerships with major eyewear manufacturers and suppliers enable National Vision to offer a diverse product selection at competitive prices, further enhancing its revenue potential. The company's focus on providing value through promotions and bundled offers also attracts a large customer base, contributing to sustained earnings growth.

National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -6.41%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong financial performance and strategic initiatives driving growth, particularly in the managed care segment. The company is making significant strides in brand revitalization and operational efficiency. However, challenges remain in the cash pay segment and there is cautious guidance for the second half of the year.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Q2 Performance
Delivered the highest second quarter results in recent years with a 10th consecutive quarter of positive comp store sales growth.
Strong Financial Metrics
Achieved adjusted comp store sales growth of 5.9%, adjusted EPS of $0.18, and a 69% year-over-year growth in adjusted operating income.
Managed Care Business Growth
Managed care business delivered low double-digit comp growth, supported by strong growth in both ticket and traffic.
Brand Revitalization Initiatives
Launched new National Vision branding and transformational campaign for America's Best to attract and retain customers.
Doctor Network Expansion
Doctor coverage remains healthy with over 1 million remote exams conducted, demonstrating improved appointment availability.
Growth in Higher Income Brackets
Contributed to growth in the $75,000 to $100,000 income range by expanding addressable market with progressive lens wearers and outside Rx customers.
Successful ERP Implementation
Implemented first phase of a new ERP focused on finance and accounting, facilitating business modernization.
Raised Full-Year Outlook
Increased revenue expectations to between $1.93 billion and $1.97 billion and adjusted EPS to $0.62 to $0.70.
Negative Updates
Cash Pay Business Challenges
Cash pay business showed a decline in average transactions as the company anniversaried last year's promotional activity.
Traffic Decline in Cash Pay Segment
Overall customer transactions declined by 0.4% as a result of not repeating a prior year's promotion.
Slight SG&A Deleveraging
Total adjusted SG&A deleveraged by 20 basis points, driven by fewer non-GAAP adjustments compared to the prior year.
Expectations of Slower Second Half Growth
Guidance includes a more cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Company Guidance
During the National Vision Holdings Q2 2025 Conference Call, the company reported its highest second quarter results in recent years, featuring a 5.9% growth in adjusted comparable store sales and an adjusted EPS of $0.18. Adjusted operating income grew by 69% year-over-year, leading to a 180 basis point improvement in adjusted operating income margin to 4.9%. The company highlighted a 10th consecutive quarter of positive comp store sales growth, driven by pricing actions, improved product assortment, and enhanced customer experience. National Vision's managed care segment showed low double-digit comp growth, while the cash pay segment saw low single-digit growth. The company noted a stable eyeglass purchase conversion rate, a rise in average ticket price, and a significant milestone of over 1 million remote exams conducted. Additionally, the company announced a brand refresh and new CRM platform to enhance customer engagement, expecting these changes to further solidify its growth trajectory. Consequently, National Vision raised its full-year revenue outlook to between $1.93 billion and $1.97 billion, with anticipated adjusted operating income ranging from $85 million to $95 million, and adjusted EPS between $0.62 and $0.70.

National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Vision Holdings faces challenges in profitability and revenue growth, with negative net income and EBIT margins. The balance sheet indicates moderate leverage with some liquidity concerns, while cash flows show potential for improvement in free cash flow generation. Strategic focus on cost management, revenue enhancement, and effective debt management could enhance financial stability and growth prospects.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement indicates challenges with profitability and revenue growth. Gross profit margin remains strong at around 54.5%, but the company has reported a negative EBIT and net income, highlighting ongoing operational challenges. Revenue growth is stagnant, with a slight increase in the TTM period compared to the previous year. The negative profit margins suggest the need for cost management and revenue enhancement strategies.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderately high at 0.96, indicating a reliance on debt financing. However, the equity ratio is decent at around 41.6%, providing some stability. The declining cash and equivalents suggest potential liquidity constraints, although the equity base has shown resilience. Overall, the balance sheet indicates moderate financial health with room for improvement in debt management.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals some positive trends, with operating cash flow consistently positive and improving slightly in the TTM period. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, indicating potential challenges in sustaining capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, reflecting good cash generation relative to reported losses. Efforts to manage capital expenditure effectively could enhance free cash flow sustainability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.89B1.82B2.13B2.01B2.08B1.71B
Gross Profit1.11B1.06B1.13B1.08B1.17B925.14M
EBITDA108.52M89.58M53.12M161.23M272.03M178.59M
Net Income-14.15M-28.50M-65.90M42.12M128.24M36.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.97B2.01B2.17B2.29B2.29B2.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments48.47M73.95M149.90M229.43M305.80M373.90M
Total Debt719.34M816.03M923.46M1.00B973.25M1.04B
Total Liabilities1.12B1.19B1.34B1.39B1.37B1.43B
Stockholders Equity850.58M816.33M829.42M901.11M925.98M906.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow56.74M38.14M58.26M5.65M163.42M158.16M
Operating Cash Flow144.70M133.65M173.03M119.20M258.94M234.98M
Investing Cash Flow-90.97M-96.09M-115.82M-110.89M-92.90M-76.41M
Financing Cash Flow-184.73M-113.34M-136.81M-84.56M-234.32M176.28M

National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price23.22
Price Trends
50DMA
23.54
Negative
100DMA
19.07
Positive
200DMA
15.26
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.13
Positive
RSI
43.77
Neutral
STOCH
23.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 23.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.39, below the 50-day MA of 23.54, and above the 200-day MA of 15.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EYE.

National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis

National Vision Holdings disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$23.19B20.8050.44%1.06%-0.29%
75
Outperform
$6.12B18.2824.98%2.96%9.80%-6.33%
74
Outperform
$1.47B34.3910.36%10.68%37.84%
72
Outperform
$1.24B6.7728.94%-0.38%35.78%
62
Neutral
$6.04B7.62-52.83%2.70%-0.93%-4.07%
56
Neutral
HK$25.48B5.05-2.69%5.69%-0.45%-52.99%
52
Neutral
$1.82B-1.77%-7.25%82.63%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EYE
National Vision Holdings
23.22
12.77
122.20%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
29.60
-1.03
-3.36%
SBH
Sally Beauty
13.55
2.20
19.38%
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
532.71
203.66
61.89%
RVLV
Revolve Group
21.64
-0.35
-1.59%
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
20.34
5.58
37.80%

National Vision Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
National Vision Holdings Announces New CEO Appointment
Neutral
Aug 4, 2025

On August 1, 2025, National Vision Holdings expanded its Board of Directors to eleven members, appointing Alex Wilkes as a new director. This appointment is part of a CEO succession plan where Reade Fahs will become Executive Chairman, and Alex Wilkes will succeed him as CEO, indicating a strategic leadership transition within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (EYE) stock is a Buy with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Vision Holdings stock, see the EYE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
National Vision Holdings Elects Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 23, 2025

On June 18, 2025, National Vision Holdings held its annual meeting of stockholders, where eight directors were elected for terms expiring at the 2026 meeting. Additionally, stockholders approved the executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (EYE) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Vision Holdings stock, see the EYE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 09, 2025