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National Vision Holdings Inc (EYE)
NASDAQ:EYE
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National Vision Holdings
(NASDAQ:EYE)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$26.00
▼(-7.08% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened recent financial performance (losses and uncertain near-term cash-flow signals) and a negative P/E that reflects unprofitable earnings. These are partially offset by a strong and optimistic earnings call with improving operating results and margin-expansion guidance, while technicals remain mixed with no clear momentum trend.
Positive Factors
Margin Expansion & Cost Discipline
Sustained margin expansion and sizable operating income improvement reflect durable operating leverage from merchandising, pricing and cost actions. These structural improvements bolster longer-term cash generation, improve resilience to traffic swings, and support reinvestment and debt reduction over multiple years.
Product Mix Upgrade & New Products
A sustained shift toward higher‑priced frames plus early smart‑eyewear traction increases average ticket and attach rates structurally. Over the medium term this supports gross dollar growth per transaction, margin durability versus discounters, and a differentiated product roadmap tied to premium offerings.
Improved Liquidity & Deleveraging
Healthy operating cash flow combined with significant note repayments and ample liquidity meaningfully reduce refinancing risk. Modest net leverage (~1.1x) gives the company flexibility to fund targeted store growth, technology investments and strategic initiatives without immediate dependence on external capital markets.
Negative Factors
Recent Loss-Making Trend
Consecutive years of negative operating profit show the company has not fully stabilized core profitability. Persistent losses erode return on equity and limit internal capacity for capital allocation, making long‑term recovery dependent on sustained margin and mix improvements without renewed volatility.
Volatile Cash Flow & FCF Compression
Historically volatile and recently compressed free cash flow reduces predictability for funding store rollouts and tech investments. TTM inconsistencies raise modeling risk and could force slower expansion, higher borrowing, or cutbacks in discretionary spending if cash conversion does not normalize.
Traffic Softness & Mix Tradeoffs
A multi‑year customer‑mix strategy that prioritizes managed care and higher‑value customers can structurally depress traffic and unit volumes as lower‑value cash customers are lost. If retention and conversion of targeted cohorts lag, revenue and operating leverage may underperform despite higher average tickets.
National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.22B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)69.4
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth-1.58%
EPS Growth85.04%
CountryUS
Employees13,411
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding79,437,190
10 Day Avg. Volume1,539,236
30 Day Avg. Volume1,229,125
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)2.36
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio27.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.76Price Target Upside27.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.07B
National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNational Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, and Vista Optical military, as well as Vision Center branded stores; and offers health maintenance organization and optometric services. As of January 1, 2022, the company operated through 1,278 retail stores, as well as various e-commerce websites. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Vision makes money primarily by selling optical products and related services to consumers through its retail and e-commerce channels. Key revenue streams include: (1) Sale of eyeglasses, including frames and prescription lenses (often sold as complete pairs and through promotional bundles), which is a core driver of retail sales; (2) Sale of contact lenses and related optical accessories and add-ons (e.g., lens options), generating recurring or repeat purchase revenue for many customers; (3) Fees associated with eye exams performed at or near its store locations through independent optometrists (where applicable based on how services are structured locally), which help drive store traffic and support conversion to product purchases; and (4) Other optical-related revenues tied to its retail offerings and customer programs, including transactions initiated digitally and fulfilled in-store or online. The company’s earnings are supported by its large store footprint, brand portfolio, merchandising/pricing strategy (including value-focused offerings), and integrated retail model that pairs eye exams with product sales to increase customer acquisition and conversion.
National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong execution across merchandising, pricing, marketing, operations and technology leading to healthy top-line growth, significant margin expansion, improved product mix, and solid cash generation. Management acknowledged near-term traffic softness driven by a deliberate customer-mix shift toward more profitable cohorts and seasonal/weather/calendar distortions, but provided clear multi-year plans to scale premium frames, lens initiatives, smart eyewear rollout, CRM, and operating-cost savings. Given the magnitude of reported financial improvements and strategic progress relative to the contained and described risks, the tone is optimistic and constructive.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Net revenue grew 9% to $1,990,000,000 in FY2025; adjusted comparable store sales were +6%; adjusted operating income increased 56% to $102,500,000; adjusted operating income margin expanded 160 basis points to 5.2%; adjusted EPS rose to $0.80 from $0.52 in FY2024.
Robust Fourth-Quarter Results
Q4 net revenue increased 15.1% to $503,000,000; adjusted comp store sales +4.8%; adjusted operating income improved to $17,600,000 (vs. $3,200,000 prior year); Q4 AOI margin rose to 3.5% from 0.7%; adjusted EPS was $0.15 vs. a loss of $0.04 last year.
Margin Expansion & Cost Discipline
Company delivered 160 basis points of full-year operating margin expansion and Q4 SG&A leverage of ~180 basis points. Management identified approximately $20,000,000 of cost-out opportunities and expects ~$10,000,000 in annualized savings in 2026.
Improved Product Mix and Higher Ticket
Average ticket grew ~6% for the year. The share of frames priced above $99 rose to ~40% from 20% at the start of FY2025. Managed care represented ~42% of revenues and managed care comparable sales grew low double digits.
Smart Eyewear Early Traction
Ray-Ban Meta (smart glasses) exceeded sell-through expectations; management reported high transaction values and strong premium lens attach rates. Meta was available in a substantial subset of stores in Q4 and is planned to be rolled out to the full fleet by end of Q2.
Technology & Customer Experience Modernization
Launched Adobe Digital Experience Platform phases, new Oracle ERP, Microsoft/Databricks data platforms, iPads/OptiCam in stores, and a new CRM. Early CRM lapsed-customer journey was nearly twice as effective as the prior approach (on a smaller base). Consultative selling and digital tools contributed to higher ticket and conversion.
Balance Sheet Strength & Capital Allocation
Operating cash flow of $146,300,000 and capital expenditures of $72,800,000 in FY2025. Repaid $101,300,000 in convertible notes; ended year with $38,700,000 cash and $332,000,000 total liquidity; net debt to adjusted EBITDA ~1.1x. Board authorized up to $50,000,000 for share repurchases.
Store Network Progress and Retail Execution
Ended FY2025 with 1,250 stores. FY2026 plan calls for opening ~30–35 new America’s Best stores, closing ~10–15 stores, and net new growth of ~20–25 stores. Eyeglass World returned to positive comps (noted as +4.2% for the year) after prior declines.
Negative Updates
Overall Traffic Softness
Total customer traffic declined ~0.5% for FY2025 and fell ~2.5% in Q4 as cash pay/customer segments softened; management acknowledged cash-pay customers remain more fickle and a potential short-term headwind to traffic.
Intentional Customer Mix Shift Creates Near-Term Tradeoffs
Management is purposefully prioritizing more profitable cohorts (managed care, Outside Rx, progressives), which has led to some attrition among less-profitable self-pay customers. This mix shift is a multi-year effort and could keep overall traffic muted while improving profitability.
Seasonal/Calendar and Weather Distortions
FY2025 included a 53rd week that contributed $35,600,000 in net revenue and $3,500,000 in adjusted operating income, complicating year-over-year comparisons. Heavy winter storms impacted Q1 activity (about 15% of fleet in hardest-hit areas) and management noted a December slowdown tied to compressed holiday timing.
Smart Eyewear Still Early-Stage Impact
Despite strong sell-through, management noted smart eyewear is still in early deployment and not yet a material driver of company-wide comps; rollout cadence and even store-count references varied in the call, reflecting early-stage scaling and modeling uncertainty.
Optometrist-Related Cost Normalization
Gross margin improvement was partially offset by a slight increase in optometrist-related costs as the company lapped a prior-year one-time doctor incentive true-up benefit.
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2026 the company guided to net revenue of $2.03 billion to $2.09 billion, adjusted comparable store sales growth of 3%–6%, adjusted operating income of $107 million to $133 million (with D&A of $88M–$92M and roughly 100 bps of adjusted operating margin expansion at the midpoint vs. 2025, excluding the 53rd week), interest expense of $14M–$16M, an effective tax rate of ~28% (ex‑RSU/option impacts), adjusted diluted EPS of $0.85–$1.09 (assumes ~82.0M diluted shares), capital expenditures of $73M–$78M, roughly 30–35 new store openings and 10–15 closures (net new ~20–25 stores), expectation to realize ~$10M of annualized cost savings this year, and a 52‑week fiscal profile with Q1/Q3 driving stronger y/y margin improvement while Q2/Q4 are expected to be flat to modestly up; the outlook also assumes a 2025‑like mix of ticket and traffic and includes product/merchandising targets (e.g., premium lens materials to approach ~60% and anti‑reflective to ~50%, and branded frame mix rising toward ~70% by year‑end).National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial statements reflect weakened profitability with losses in 2023–2024 and revenue decline in 2024 vs. 2023. Leverage is moderate (roughly ~1x debt-to-equity) with stable equity, while cash flow has been a partial support but has recently pressured free cash flow and shows inconsistent TTM fields, increasing uncertainty.Income Statement
Profitability has weakened meaningfully versus earlier years. After solid operating performance in 2020–2022 (positive net income and healthy EBITDA margins), results turned loss-making in 2023–2024 with negative net margins and negative operating profit in both years. Revenue also declined in 2024 versus 2023, and the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) dataset shows an extreme revenue drop and inconsistent line items (e.g., very small revenue alongside unusually large gross profit), which increases uncertainty and points to elevated volatility in recent performance.34
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable but not conservative: debt sits roughly around equity (debt-to-equity near ~1x across most annual periods), which is typical for many retailers but limits flexibility during down earnings cycles. Equity remains sizable and relatively stable, supporting the balance sheet, but returns on equity have turned negative in 2023–2024 (and slightly negative in TTM), reflecting that the capital base is not currently generating profits.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is mixed. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were positive in each annual period shown, including strong free cash flow in 2020–2021, but free cash flow compressed sharply in 2022 and declined again in 2024 versus 2023. Importantly, recent years show accounting losses while cash flow remains positive, which is a stabilizer, yet the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) cash flow fields show zero operating and free cash flow alongside negative growth rates, suggesting either a sharp recent deterioration or data inconsistency—both of which increase risk.43
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.99B | 1.82B | 2.13B | 1.64B | 2.08B |
| Gross Profit | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.13B | 977.01M | 1.17B |
| EBITDA | 152.42M | 89.58M | 53.12M | 158.73M | 276.74M |
| Net Income | 29.60M | -28.50M | -65.90M | 42.12M | 128.24M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.13B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.29B | 2.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 38.71M | 73.95M | 149.90M | 229.43M | 305.80M |
| Total Debt | 694.60M | 816.03M | 923.15M | 1.00B | 973.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.26B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 869.53M | 816.33M | 829.42M | 901.11M | 925.98M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 73.45M | 38.14M | 58.26M | 5.65M | 163.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 146.29M | 133.65M | 173.03M | 119.20M | 258.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -76.61M | -96.09M | -115.82M | -110.89M | -92.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -104.62M | -113.34M | -136.81M | -84.56M | -234.32M |
National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
27.98
Price Trends
27.29
Positive
27.04
Positive
25.75
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
54.34
Neutral
48.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.13, above the 50-day MA of 27.29, and above the 200-day MA of 25.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EYE.
National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis
National Vision Holdings disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $1.31B | 7.65 | 23.43% | ― | -0.42% | 31.64% | |
63 Neutral | $13.86B | 259.07 | 1.44% | 3.33% | 3.26% | -25.41% | |
63 Neutral | $23.10B | 25.17 | 44.07% | ― | 5.45% | 4.28% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $4.02B | 7.11 | -44.22% | 4.16% | -1.04% | -20.88% | |
52 Neutral | $2.22B | 69.37 | 3.47% | ― | -1.58% | 85.04% | |
51 Neutral | $13.17B | 12.85 | 38.54% | 5.46% | -0.95% | -48.28% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EYE
National Vision Holdings
27.98
15.32
121.01%
BBY
Best Buy Co
62.87
-7.16
-10.22%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
100.72
-19.88
-16.48%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
19.98
-9.21
-31.54%
SBH
Sally Beauty
13.52
4.52
50.22%
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
520.65
176.93
51.48%
National Vision Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
National Vision Extends Agreement with Essilor
Positive
Dec 16, 2025
On December 13, 2025, National Vision, Inc. and Essilor of America, Inc. agreed to amend their existing Letter Agreement, extending its term by two years to May 31, 2028, and updating pricing terms. This amendment signifies a continued partnership between the two companies, potentially strengthening National Vision’s market position and providing stability in its operations.
The most recent analyst rating on (EYE) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Vision Holdings stock, see the EYE Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.