National Vision Holdings (EYE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.96B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.93M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: -1.58%
• EPS Growth: 85.04%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,411
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 79,196,380
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,640,867
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,926,512
• PEG Ratio: 0.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.11
• 1Y Price Target: $32.25
• Price Target Upside: 36.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(9.70% Upside)

National Vision Holdings' overall stock score is driven by its financial performance challenges, including high debt reliance and profitability issues. However, the positive earnings call, with strong sales growth and improved guidance, provides a counterbalance. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Comparable Store Sales Growth

Consistent sales growth across stores indicates strong customer retention and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term revenue stability.

Operating Margin Expansion

Margin expansion reflects improved operational efficiency and pricing power, enhancing profitability and competitive positioning.

Managed Care Business Growth

Growth in managed care indicates a robust segment that can drive sustained revenue and buffer against cash pay segment volatility.

Negative Factors

High Debt Reliance

Heavy debt reliance can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting future investment and growth opportunities.

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability issues suggest operational inefficiencies that could hinder long-term financial health and shareholder returns.

Healthcare Cost Headwinds

Rising healthcare costs can erode margins and profitability, necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain financial stability.

National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) is a prominent retail company specializing in the optical sector. The company operates through a diverse range of retail formats, including its own stores and franchises, providing a wide array of eyewear products such as prescription glasses, contact lenses, and sunglasses. National Vision Holdings is known for its commitment to affordable eye care, making quality optical products accessible to a broad customer base across the United States.

How the Company Makes Money

National Vision Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of eyewear products, including both prescription and non-prescription glasses, contact lenses, and related accessories. The company operates several well-known retail chains, such as Vision Centers located within Walmart, as well as standalone stores under the brands America's Best Contacts & Eyeglasses and Eyeglass World. Additional revenue streams include eye examinations and vision services offered in-store. Significant partnerships with major eyewear manufacturers and suppliers enable National Vision to offer a diverse product selection at competitive prices, further enhancing its revenue potential. The company's focus on providing value through promotions and bundled offers also attracts a large customer base, contributing to sustained earnings growth.

National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Vision Holdings is facing profitability challenges despite slight revenue growth. The balance sheet shows a high reliance on debt, and while cash flow generation is improving, it is not sufficient to cover net losses. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies to improve margins and reduce debt reliance.

Income Statement

National Vision Holdings has shown a slight revenue growth in the TTM period with a 1.87% increase. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin remains stable, but the declining EBIT and net profit margins suggest operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 0.96, indicating a significant reliance on debt financing. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's current unprofitability. However, the equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

There is a positive growth in free cash flow, with a 22.86% increase in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that cash flow is not fully covering the net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.92B	1.82B	2.13B	1.64B	2.08B	1.71B
Gross Profit	1.13B	1.06B	1.13B	977.01M	1.17B	925.14M
EBITDA	125.61M	89.58M	53.12M	158.73M	276.74M	178.59M
Net Income	-2.31M	-28.50M	-65.90M	42.12M	128.24M	36.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.96B	2.01B	2.17B	2.29B	2.29B	2.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	56.03M	73.95M	149.90M	229.43M	305.80M	373.90M
Total Debt	693.57M	816.03M	923.15M	1.00B	973.25M	1.04B
Total Liabilities	1.10B	1.19B	1.34B	1.39B	1.37B	1.43B
Stockholders Equity	858.76M	816.33M	829.42M	901.11M	925.98M	906.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	82.95M	38.14M	58.26M	5.65M	163.42M	158.16M
Operating Cash Flow	163.42M	133.65M	173.03M	119.20M	258.94M	234.98M
Investing Cash Flow	-86.02M	-96.09M	-115.82M	-110.89M	-92.90M	-76.41M
Financing Cash Flow	-102.50M	-113.34M	-136.81M	-84.56M	-234.32M	176.28M

National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 23.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.20, below the 50-day MA of 25.96, and above the 200-day MA of 19.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EYE.

National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MNSO	78 Outperform	$6.67B	20.25	22.92%	2.90%	10.93%	-10.89%
ULTA	72 Outperform	$23.73B	20.29	48.52%	―	2.94%	4.57%
SBH	71 Outperform	$1.38B	7.50	27.54%	―	-0.38%	35.78%
RVLV	71 Outperform	$1.56B	27.66	12.19%	―	9.24%	35.68%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BBWI	59 Neutral	$4.54B	6.54	―	3.49%	-0.18%	-18.95%
EYE	53 Neutral	$1.96B	-668.80	-0.37%	―	-1.58%	85.04%

National Vision Holdings Corporate Events

National Vision Holdings Reports Strong Q2 Earnings

National Vision Holdings’ recent earnings call painted a picture of strong financial performance and strategic initiatives that are driving growth, particularly in the managed care segment. The company is making significant strides in brand revitalization and operational efficiency, although challenges persist in the cash pay segment, and there is cautious guidance for the second half of the year.

National Vision Holdings Reports Strong Q2 2025 Growth

National Vision Holdings, Inc. is a leading optical retail company in the United States, operating over 1,200 stores across various brands, including America’s Best Contacts & Eyeglasses and Eyeglass World, with a mission to provide affordable and accessible eye care and eyewear. In the second quarter of 2025, National Vision reported a 7.7% increase in net revenue, reaching $486.4 million, and a 6.5% growth in comparable store sales, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of positive growth. The company also saw a significant improvement in profitability, with adjusted operating income rising by 69.1% to $23.8 million and adjusted diluted EPS increasing to $0.18. Key financial highlights include a 3.5% increase in costs applicable to revenue and a 6.8% rise in SG&A expenses, with overall store count growing by 2.0%. Looking ahead, National Vision has raised its fiscal 2025 outlook, reflecting confidence in its strategic direction, with plans to continue leveraging brand advertising and cost management to drive sustainable growth and long-term value for shareholders.