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National Vision Holdings (EYE)
NASDAQ:EYE
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National Vision Holdings
(NASDAQ:EYE)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(1.16% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened recent financial performance (losses and uncertain near-term cash-flow signals) and a negative P/E that reflects unprofitable earnings. These are partially offset by a strong and optimistic earnings call with improving operating results and margin-expansion guidance, while technicals remain mixed with no clear momentum trend.
Positive Factors
Margin expansion & cost discipline
Sustained margin expansion from pricing, merchandising and targeted cost-outs raises operating leverage and resilience. Multi-year savings and a clear margin target (management guidance ~100 bps expansion) support durable profit recovery and better cash generation even if top-line growth moderates.
Large store footprint with disciplined expansion
A broad, growing retail network provides scale advantages in buying, marketing, and omnichannel fulfillment. Modest net store growth targets preserve returns while expanding access to managed-care and premium customers, supporting predictable, multi-year revenue and market-share gains.
Manageable leverage and liquidity
Sub- or near-1x net-debt/EBITDA and a solid liquidity cushion give the company flexibility to invest in stores, tech and product initiatives while servicing debt. This balance supports execution of strategic initiatives without forcing near-term capital raises.
Negative Factors
Recent profitability deterioration
Two consecutive years of losses indicate the company’s asset base is not yet delivering sustainable returns. Persistent negative margins reduce reinvestment capacity, heighten reliance on cost actions and cash buffers, and raise execution risk if revenue or mix targets slip.
Inconsistent cash-flow trends
Volatile cash conversion undermines durable funding for capex, new stores and strategic investments. If positive accounting earnings remain inconsistent, management may need to defer growth projects or rely more on debt, limiting strategic optionality over the medium term.
Customer-mix shift and traffic softness
A deliberate shift toward higher-margin customers improves unit economics but can suppress overall traffic for multiple quarters. This structural rebalancing may slow revenue volume recovery and extend the timeline to fully realize benefits from higher-ticket assortments.
National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.12B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)69.4
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth-1.58%
EPS Growth85.04%
CountryUS
Employees13,411
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding79,437,190
10 Day Avg. Volume1,677,618
30 Day Avg. Volume1,294,040
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)2.36
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio27.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.76Price Target Upside33.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.07B
National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNational Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, and Vista Optical military, as well as Vision Center branded stores; and offers health maintenance organization and optometric services. As of January 1, 2022, the company operated through 1,278 retail stores, as well as various e-commerce websites. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Vision Holdings generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of eyewear products, including prescription glasses and contact lenses. The company offers a variety of pricing options, including value-focused promotions that attract customers seeking affordable eyewear solutions. Additional revenue is derived from eye examinations and vision care services provided in-store. National Vision has established partnerships with major eyewear brands and manufacturers, which helps it to maintain a competitive edge in pricing and product variety. Furthermore, the company's membership plans and vision insurance partnerships contribute to a steady influx of customers, enhancing overall sales and profitability.
National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong execution across merchandising, pricing, marketing, operations and technology leading to healthy top-line growth, significant margin expansion, improved product mix, and solid cash generation. Management acknowledged near-term traffic softness driven by a deliberate customer-mix shift toward more profitable cohorts and seasonal/weather/calendar distortions, but provided clear multi-year plans to scale premium frames, lens initiatives, smart eyewear rollout, CRM, and operating-cost savings. Given the magnitude of reported financial improvements and strategic progress relative to the contained and described risks, the tone is optimistic and constructive.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Net revenue grew 9% to $1,990,000,000 in FY2025; adjusted comparable store sales were +6%; adjusted operating income increased 56% to $102,500,000; adjusted operating income margin expanded 160 basis points to 5.2%; adjusted EPS rose to $0.80 from $0.52 in FY2024.
Robust Fourth-Quarter Results
Q4 net revenue increased 15.1% to $503,000,000; adjusted comp store sales +4.8%; adjusted operating income improved to $17,600,000 (vs. $3,200,000 prior year); Q4 AOI margin rose to 3.5% from 0.7%; adjusted EPS was $0.15 vs. a loss of $0.04 last year.
Margin Expansion & Cost Discipline
Company delivered 160 basis points of full-year operating margin expansion and Q4 SG&A leverage of ~180 basis points. Management identified approximately $20,000,000 of cost-out opportunities and expects ~$10,000,000 in annualized savings in 2026.
Improved Product Mix and Higher Ticket
Average ticket grew ~6% for the year. The share of frames priced above $99 rose to ~40% from 20% at the start of FY2025. Managed care represented ~42% of revenues and managed care comparable sales grew low double digits.
Smart Eyewear Early Traction
Ray-Ban Meta (smart glasses) exceeded sell-through expectations; management reported high transaction values and strong premium lens attach rates. Meta was available in a substantial subset of stores in Q4 and is planned to be rolled out to the full fleet by end of Q2.
Technology & Customer Experience Modernization
Launched Adobe Digital Experience Platform phases, new Oracle ERP, Microsoft/Databricks data platforms, iPads/OptiCam in stores, and a new CRM. Early CRM lapsed-customer journey was nearly twice as effective as the prior approach (on a smaller base). Consultative selling and digital tools contributed to higher ticket and conversion.
Balance Sheet Strength & Capital Allocation
Operating cash flow of $146,300,000 and capital expenditures of $72,800,000 in FY2025. Repaid $101,300,000 in convertible notes; ended year with $38,700,000 cash and $332,000,000 total liquidity; net debt to adjusted EBITDA ~1.1x. Board authorized up to $50,000,000 for share repurchases.
Store Network Progress and Retail Execution
Ended FY2025 with 1,250 stores. FY2026 plan calls for opening ~30–35 new America’s Best stores, closing ~10–15 stores, and net new growth of ~20–25 stores. Eyeglass World returned to positive comps (noted as +4.2% for the year) after prior declines.
Negative Updates
Overall Traffic Softness
Total customer traffic declined ~0.5% for FY2025 and fell ~2.5% in Q4 as cash pay/customer segments softened; management acknowledged cash-pay customers remain more fickle and a potential short-term headwind to traffic.
Intentional Customer Mix Shift Creates Near-Term Tradeoffs
Management is purposefully prioritizing more profitable cohorts (managed care, Outside Rx, progressives), which has led to some attrition among less-profitable self-pay customers. This mix shift is a multi-year effort and could keep overall traffic muted while improving profitability.
Seasonal/Calendar and Weather Distortions
FY2025 included a 53rd week that contributed $35,600,000 in net revenue and $3,500,000 in adjusted operating income, complicating year-over-year comparisons. Heavy winter storms impacted Q1 activity (about 15% of fleet in hardest-hit areas) and management noted a December slowdown tied to compressed holiday timing.
Smart Eyewear Still Early-Stage Impact
Despite strong sell-through, management noted smart eyewear is still in early deployment and not yet a material driver of company-wide comps; rollout cadence and even store-count references varied in the call, reflecting early-stage scaling and modeling uncertainty.
Optometrist-Related Cost Normalization
Gross margin improvement was partially offset by a slight increase in optometrist-related costs as the company lapped a prior-year one-time doctor incentive true-up benefit.
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2026 the company guided to net revenue of $2.03 billion to $2.09 billion, adjusted comparable store sales growth of 3%–6%, adjusted operating income of $107 million to $133 million (with D&A of $88M–$92M and roughly 100 bps of adjusted operating margin expansion at the midpoint vs. 2025, excluding the 53rd week), interest expense of $14M–$16M, an effective tax rate of ~28% (ex‑RSU/option impacts), adjusted diluted EPS of $0.85–$1.09 (assumes ~82.0M diluted shares), capital expenditures of $73M–$78M, roughly 30–35 new store openings and 10–15 closures (net new ~20–25 stores), expectation to realize ~$10M of annualized cost savings this year, and a 52‑week fiscal profile with Q1/Q3 driving stronger y/y margin improvement while Q2/Q4 are expected to be flat to modestly up; the outlook also assumes a 2025‑like mix of ticket and traffic and includes product/merchandising targets (e.g., premium lens materials to approach ~60% and anti‑reflective to ~50%, and branded frame mix rising toward ~70% by year‑end).National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial statements reflect weakened profitability with losses in 2023–2024 and revenue decline in 2024 vs. 2023. Leverage is moderate (roughly ~1x debt-to-equity) with stable equity, while cash flow has been a partial support but has recently pressured free cash flow and shows inconsistent TTM fields, increasing uncertainty.Income Statement
Profitability has weakened meaningfully versus earlier years. After solid operating performance in 2020–2022 (positive net income and healthy EBITDA margins), results turned loss-making in 2023–2024 with negative net margins and negative operating profit in both years. Revenue also declined in 2024 versus 2023, and the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) dataset shows an extreme revenue drop and inconsistent line items (e.g., very small revenue alongside unusually large gross profit), which increases uncertainty and points to elevated volatility in recent performance.34
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable but not conservative: debt sits roughly around equity (debt-to-equity near ~1x across most annual periods), which is typical for many retailers but limits flexibility during down earnings cycles. Equity remains sizable and relatively stable, supporting the balance sheet, but returns on equity have turned negative in 2023–2024 (and slightly negative in TTM), reflecting that the capital base is not currently generating profits.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is mixed. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were positive in each annual period shown, including strong free cash flow in 2020–2021, but free cash flow compressed sharply in 2022 and declined again in 2024 versus 2023. Importantly, recent years show accounting losses while cash flow remains positive, which is a stabilizer, yet the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) cash flow fields show zero operating and free cash flow alongside negative growth rates, suggesting either a sharp recent deterioration or data inconsistency—both of which increase risk.43
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.99B | 1.82B | 2.13B | 1.64B | 2.08B |
| Gross Profit | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.13B | 977.01M | 1.17B |
| EBITDA | 152.42M | 89.58M | 53.12M | 158.73M | 276.74M |
| Net Income | 29.60M | -28.50M | -65.90M | 42.12M | 128.24M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.13B | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.29B | 2.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 38.71M | 73.95M | 149.90M | 229.43M | 305.80M |
| Total Debt | 694.60M | 816.03M | 923.15M | 1.00B | 973.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.26B | 1.19B | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 869.53M | 816.33M | 829.42M | 901.11M | 925.98M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 73.45M | 38.14M | 58.26M | 5.65M | 163.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 146.29M | 133.65M | 173.03M | 119.20M | 258.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -76.61M | -96.09M | -115.82M | -110.89M | -92.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -104.62M | -113.34M | -136.81M | -84.56M | -234.32M |
National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
26.69
Price Trends
27.19
Negative
26.99
Negative
25.56
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
46.17
Neutral
38.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.34, below the 50-day MA of 27.19, and above the 200-day MA of 25.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EYE.
National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis
National Vision Holdings disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $28.95B | 25.18 | 46.87% | ― | 5.45% | 4.28% | |
64 Neutral | $1.45B | 7.65 | 23.43% | ― | -0.42% | 31.64% | |
63 Neutral | $15.03B | 259.07 | 1.44% | 3.33% | 3.26% | -25.41% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $4.10B | 7.11 | -44.22% | 4.16% | -1.04% | -20.88% | |
52 Neutral | $2.12B | 69.37 | 3.47% | ― | -1.58% | 85.04% | |
51 Neutral | $13.58B | 12.85 | 38.54% | 5.46% | -0.95% | -48.28% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
EYE
National Vision Holdings
26.69
14.78
124.10%
BBY
Best Buy Co
63.15
-5.78
-8.39%
GPC
Genuine Parts Company
109.20
-8.24
-7.02%
BBWI
Bath & Body Works
20.05
-8.22
-29.08%
SBH
Sally Beauty
14.93
5.85
64.43%
ULTA
Ulta Beauty
652.65
323.41
98.23%
National Vision Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
National Vision Extends Agreement with Essilor
Positive
Dec 16, 2025
On December 13, 2025, National Vision, Inc. and Essilor of America, Inc. agreed to amend their existing Letter Agreement, extending its term by two years to May 31, 2028, and updating pricing terms. This amendment signifies a continued partnership between the two companies, potentially strengthening National Vision’s market position and providing stability in its operations.
The most recent analyst rating on (EYE) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Vision Holdings stock, see the EYE Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.