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National Vision Holdings Inc (EYE)
NASDAQ:EYE
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National Vision Holdings
(NASDAQ:EYE)
55Neutral
Positive Factors
Earnings Performance
EYE reported 3Q adj. EPS of $0.12 vs. the Street at $0.08, indicating better than expected earnings performance.
Managed Care Performance
Managed care remains a bright spot in the model, posting high-single-digit comps at roughly 40% of sales.
Strategic Initiatives
Strategic initiatives like the store fleet review and remote technology rollout are expected to drive improvements in annualized adjusted EBITDA by year-end 2026.
Negative Factors
Industry Challenges
The largest risk is the industry bottleneck of doctor availability, which is challenging for the company to return to opening stores at its historical cadence.
Traffic Trends
The company has seen negative traffic trends beginning the second week of February.
Uncertainties and Risks
There are continued uncertainties surrounding the optical repurchase cycle, execution risks, competitive risks, and inflationary pressures.
National Vision Holdings (EYE) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.05B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth-11.45%
EPS Growth57.20%
CountryUS
Employees13,411
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength51
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.36
Shares Outstanding78,783,485
10 Day Avg. Volume1,628,141
30 Day Avg. Volume1,648,153
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.56
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)8.50
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.21Price Target Upside6.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
National Vision Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNational Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, and Vista Optical military, as well as Vision Center branded stores; and offers health maintenance organization and optometric services. As of January 1, 2022, the company operated through 1,278 retail stores, as well as various e-commerce websites. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Vision Holdings makes money primarily through the sale of optical products and services, including prescription eyeglasses, contact lenses, and eye exams. The company generates revenue from its retail locations under various in-house brands and through strategic partnerships with retailers such as Walmart, where it manages the optical departments in selected store locations. In addition to direct retail sales, National Vision Holdings benefits financially from its membership program, which offers discounts and other incentives to customers, thereby driving repeat business and customer loyalty. The company's revenue is bolstered by its expansive network of stores and its ability to provide affordable eye care solutions to a broad customer base.
National Vision Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
National Vision Holdings faces profitability challenges and fluctuating revenue growth, coupled with high leverage. While the balance sheet shows a stable equity position, cash flow sustainability needs improvement. Strategic adjustments may be necessary to enhance financial stability and growth prospects.Income Statement
National Vision Holdings shows inconsistent profitability with a negative net profit margin in the latest year. The revenue growth rate is erratic, and EBIT margins have turned negative, indicating challenges in maintaining operational profitability.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a stable equity ratio, but the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating reliance on debt financing. Return on equity has been fluctuating, reflecting inconsistent profitability.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flows show volatility, with free cash flow growth being inconsistent. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable for the latest year, which raises concerns about cash flow sustainability.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.82B | 2.13B | 2.01B | 2.08B | 1.71B | Gross Profit |
| 1.06B | 1.13B | 1.08B | 1.17B | 925.14M | EBIT |
| -10.36M | -46.83M | 61.27M | 174.94M | 87.01M | EBITDA |
| 89.58M | 53.12M | 161.23M | 272.03M | 178.59M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -28.50M | -65.90M | 42.12M | 128.24M | 36.28M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 73.95M | 149.90M | 229.43M | 305.80M | 373.90M | Total Assets |
| 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.29B | 2.29B | 2.33B | Total Debt |
| 816.03M | 923.46M | 1.00B | 973.25M | 1.04B | Net Debt |
| 742.08M | 773.56M | 773.40M | 667.45M | 667.18M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.19B | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.37B | 1.43B | Stockholders Equity |
| 816.33M | 829.42M | 901.11M | 925.98M | 906.50M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 38.14M | 58.26M | 5.65M | 163.42M | 158.16M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 133.65M | 173.03M | 119.20M | 258.94M | 234.98M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -96.09M | -115.82M | -110.89M | -92.90M | -76.41M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -113.34M | -136.81M | -84.56M | -234.32M | 176.28M |
National Vision Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
13.36
Price Trends
11.90
Positive
11.59
Positive
11.59
Positive
Market Momentum
0.38
Negative
62.87
Neutral
89.74
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EYE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.40, above the 50-day MA of 11.90, and above the 200-day MA of 11.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EYE.
National Vision Holdings Risk Analysis
National Vision Holdings disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Vision Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Vision Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $83.82B | 18.48 | 6.07% | 4.00% | 4.02% | -43.51% | |
73 Outperform | $2.13T | 36.42 | 24.29% | ― | 10.99% | 91.61% | |
59 Neutral | $12.68B | 11.14 | 0.97% | 3.72% | 1.33% | -21.21% | |
55 Neutral | $1.05B | ― | -3.24% | ― | -11.45% | 57.20% | |
54 Neutral | $48.02B | 12.23 | 29.12% | 4.23% | -0.79% | -0.90% | |
51 Neutral | $9.62B | ― | -60.05% | 8.99% | 5.62% | -1637.59% | |
46 Neutral | $250.82M | ― | -3.49% | ― | 0.02% | -31.11% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
EYE
National Vision Holdings
13.36
-8.80
-39.71%
AMZN
Amazon
201.13
20.75
11.50%
CVS
CVS Health
67.20
-9.08
-11.90%
GCO
Genesco
22.37
-5.77
-20.50%
TGT
Target
106.09
-65.82
-38.29%
WBA
Walgreens Boots Alliance
11.10
-9.18
-45.27%
National Vision Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: 16.78% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted the company's positive sales growth, strategic shifts towards higher-value customers, and successful cost management initiatives. However, challenges such as declining sales at Eyeglass World and recent traffic slowdowns were noted. Overall, the company remains optimistic about its strategic direction and transformation efforts.Highlights
Sales Growth and Positive Comparable Store Sales
Sales in the fourth quarter increased 3.9% to $437.3 million with the eighth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted comparable store sales, achieving a growth of 1.5%.
Managed Care Sales Performance
Managed care grew to approximately 40% of revenues, with high single-digit growth throughout the year, significantly contributing to the company's performance.
Technology and Operational Enhancements
Over 730 locations enabled with remote technology, with remote exams representing about 12% of exams, and investments in a new finance ERP and Adobe CRM platform to enhance operational efficiency.
Strong Financial Position
Net revenue increased 3.8% to $1.823 billion for fiscal 2024, with adjusted operating income of $65.5 million increasing by 21.5%.
Strategic Shift Towards Higher Value Customers
The company is focusing on enhancing customer journeys for managed care customers and those less price-sensitive, which now represent about half of the customer base.
Cost Reduction Initiatives
Implemented $12 million in expense reduction initiatives for 2025, including a 10% reduction in corporate support positions.
Lowlights
Eyeglass World Sales Decline
Eyeglass World's comparable store sales declined by negative 1.7%, impacted by Hurricane Helene and store locations in Florida.
Recent Traffic Slowdown
Noted negative traffic trends beginning the second week of February, attributed partly to colder weather and consumer sentiment uncertainty.
Corporate Restructuring Costs
Higher legal and professional fees related to the partnership with Accenture and cloud-based software investments affected SG&A expenses.
Store Closures and Optimization
Announced actions on 43 stores through fiscal year 2026, which may affect revenue and operating margins.
Company Guidance
During the call, National Vision Holdings outlined its financial performance and strategic priorities for 2025. The company reported a 3.9% increase in fourth-quarter sales to $437.3 million, driven by a 1.5% rise in adjusted comparable store sales. America's Best saw a 2% growth, while Eyeglass World experienced a decline of 1.7%. For fiscal 2024, net revenue rose by 3.8% to $1.823 billion, with managed care sales accounting for approximately 40% of revenues, growing at high single digits. Adjusted operating income for the year increased by 21.5% to $65.5 million, translating to an adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.52. Looking forward, the company aims to enhance profitability with a focus on managed care customer segments, aiming for adjusted comparable store sales growth between 0.5% to 3.5% in 2025 and an adjusted operating income ranging from $73 million to $88 million. The company plans to open 30 to 35 new stores and expects adjusted diluted EPS to be between $0.52 and $0.64.National Vision Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
National Vision Holdings Expands Board with New Directors
Positive
Mar 17, 2025
On March 17, 2025, National Vision Holdings announced the appointment of Jim McGrann and Michael Nicholson as new independent directors to its Board, expanding it from nine to eleven members. This move is part of a Cooperation Agreement with Engine Capital, aimed at overseeing transformation initiatives and enhancing the company’s strategic direction. The new appointments are expected to bring valuable expertise in the optical and retail industries, supporting National Vision’s long-term growth objectives and potentially improving shareholder value.
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Vision Holdings Announces CFO Departure and Growth
Positive
Jan 16, 2025
On January 16, 2025, National Vision Holdings announced the upcoming departure of CFO Melissa Rasmussen, who will stay through the release of 2024 financial results, with a search underway for her successor. The company is undergoing a leadership transformation, expanding roles for key executives to drive strategic initiatives and reporting preliminary financial results showing growth in net revenue and store sales, reflecting the benefits of its transformation efforts.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.