Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) (EXSR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $245.79M
• Dividend Yield: 4.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 435.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.13
• Revenue Growth: 5.03%
• EPS Growth: 37.60%
• Country: US
• Employees: 400
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 5.11
• Shares Outstanding: 1,714,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 523
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 435
• PEG Ratio: 0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.73
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.65
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $157.00 ▲(16.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/30/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/30/25

The score is driven by stable financial performance with strong cash conversion but a meaningful revenue decline and some remaining leverage/ROE pressure. Technicals are supportive with a steady uptrend, and valuation is a key positive due to the low P/E and ~4% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Free cash flow tracking nearly 1x of reported earnings in 2024 signals high earnings quality and persistent cash conversion. This durable cash generation supports organic capital build, dividend coverage and flexibility to absorb credit volatility without immediate external financing.

Improved net margins

A sustained uplift in net margins year-over-year indicates better pricing, cost control or mix improvements. Higher margins provide a structural buffer against revenue softness or credit costs, helping preserve profitability and internal reinvestment capacity across economic cycles.

Community banking franchise and product mix

A focused regional community-bank model with retail deposits and diversified lending (consumer, commercial, real estate) supports sticky funding, strong local customer relationships and niche underwriting expertise. This structural market position aids stable deposit funding and loan origination pipelines.

Negative Factors

Sharp revenue decline

An almost 19% top-line drop in 2024 is a durable concern: persistent revenue weakness can erode operating leverage, constrain reinvestment, increase reliance on nonrecurring items, and reduce the margin of safety against future credit or rate pressures if not reversed.

Elevated leverage versus historical norms

Leverage that has risen materially versus prior years reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to credit losses or funding shocks. Even after improvement from 2023, higher indebtedness limits capacity for growth initiatives and raises the capital burden to restore prior leverage comfort.

Moderating return on equity

A sustained drop in ROE to mid-single digits reflects lower profitability efficiency and higher capital needs. Persistently muted returns can hamper capital formation, investor confidence and the bank’s ability to compete for deposits or lend aggressively without diluting shareholder returns.

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa, CA), together with its subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking products and services to individuals and businesses in California. The company offers personal banking products and services, including checking and savings accounts; home loans, personal lines of credit, unsecured personal loans, and auto loans; overdraft line of credit accounts; and community rebuild loan programs. It also provides business banking products and services, such as business checking and savings accounts; merchant services; business equipment leasing; commercial real estate and construction loans; and business term loans, business line of credit, and small business administration (SBA) loans, as well as vineyard, winery, and agricultural loans. In addition, the company offers debit and credit cards; online and mobile banking services; and trust administration, investment management, and estate settlement services, as well as retirement accounts and plans. As of February 25, 2022, it operated 17 branches located in Sonoma County; and a commercial branch in Roseville, California. The company was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Santa Rosa, California. Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa, CA) operates as a subsidiary of Frank P. Doyle Trust, Article IX.

How the Company Makes Money

Exchange Bank generates revenue through a variety of financial services and products. Its primary revenue streams include interest income from loans and mortgages, fees from banking services, and income from investment and wealth management services. The bank extends both personal and commercial loans, earning interest as borrowers make repayments. Additionally, the bank collects fees for account maintenance, transaction processing, and other banking services. Through its wealth management division, Exchange Bank earns fees and commissions for financial advisory and asset management services. Strategic partnerships with financial technology providers and participation in local economic initiatives also play a role in enhancing the bank's service offerings and expanding its market reach.

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are stable: profitability improved year over year (net margins ~22% in 2024 vs. ~18% in 2023) and cash conversion is strong (FCF ~0.93x net income in 2024). Offsetting this, revenue declined sharply in 2024 (~-18.7%), and leverage—while improved vs. 2023—remains higher than earlier history, with ROE down from prior peak levels.

Income Statement

Profitability remains solid with healthy net margins (about 22% in 2024 vs. ~18% in 2023), indicating improved bottom-line efficiency year over year. However, the top line is weakening: revenue fell sharply in 2024 (down ~18.7%) after being roughly flat to slightly down in 2023, which reduces earnings durability if the trend persists. Longer-term results show stronger margins in 2021–2022, suggesting current performance is good but not at prior peak levels.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased meaningfully over time: debt-to-equity moved from very low levels in 2019–2021 to ~0.88 in 2023, improving to ~0.50 in 2024 but still well above earlier history. Equity has grown versus 2022–2024, supporting the balance sheet, yet returns on equity have moderated from the 2022 high (~18.6%) to mid-single digits to high-single digits (~8.5% in 2024). Overall, the balance sheet is adequate but carries higher leverage risk than it did historically.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: free cash flow closely tracks reported earnings across the period (roughly 0.73x to 0.93x of net income, and ~0.93x in 2024), indicating earnings quality is generally supported by cash. Operating cash flow and free cash flow remain positive in 2024, though both stepped down from 2023 levels, mirroring the softer revenue environment. Free cash flow growth has been uneven year to year, but overall cash conversion remains resilient.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	136.07M	148.10M	114.15M	125.58M	118.95M	121.21M
Gross Profit	114.79M	110.45M	114.15M	123.50M	115.19M	121.21M
EBITDA	37.22M	33.58M	29.99M	52.33M	53.06M	-275.00K
Net Income	26.41M	23.85M	20.19M	37.48M	36.41M	33.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.27B	3.30B	3.37B	3.33B	3.54B	3.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	28.64M	35.65M	48.37M	472.97M	336.41M
Total Debt	40.00M	140.00M	232.66M	28.21M	7.94M	5.00M
Total Liabilities	2.95B	3.02B	3.11B	3.13B	3.22B	2.83B
Stockholders Equity	316.42M	280.81M	255.41M	202.02M	319.20M	304.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	25.62M	36.15M	34.46M	27.58M	29.00M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	27.47M	38.69M	37.62M	37.80M	33.51M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	0.00	34.12M	-360.98M	-288.56M	-322.39M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	0.00	-31.57M	-101.24M	387.32M	420.34M

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 135.35
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXSR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 135.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 142.63, below the 50-day MA of 135.80, and above the 200-day MA of 116.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXSR.

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXSR	70 Outperform	$245.79M	8.20	9.21%	4.02%	5.03%	37.60%
OPBK	70 Outperform	$207.65M	8.11	10.99%	3.32%	9.10%	12.36%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
EFSI	67 Neutral	$208.44M	24.38	6.63%	3.11%	-1.45%	-31.32%
FRAF	67 Neutral	$226.91M	10.69	9.91%	2.51%	12.06%	10.38%
FXNC	66 Neutral	$247.80M	14.03	7.36%	2.49%	48.94%	11.61%
INBK	51 Neutral	$180.91M	-5.03	-8.99%	1.07%	2.49%	-248.43%