Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) (EXSR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $238.25M
• Dividend Yield: 4.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 435.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.16
• Revenue Growth: 5.03%
• EPS Growth: 37.60%
• Country: US
• Employees: 400
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 5.11
• Shares Outstanding: 1,714,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 523
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 435
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.68
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.47
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $165.00 ▲(21.91% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/19/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance and a notably de-risked balance sheet, reinforced by very attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). Technicals are supportive but not strongly bullish, with mostly neutral momentum readings.

Positive Factors

De-risked balance sheet

A materially lower debt-to-equity (~0.12) meaningfully reduces funding and solvency risk and increases capital flexibility. This stronger capital posture supports sustained lending through cycles, regulatory resilience, and ability to absorb credit shocks over coming quarters.

Revenue and margin recovery

Accelerating revenue and improving net margins point to recovery of core earning power. Durable revenue growth plus margin expansion enhances net interest income stability for a regional bank and supports consistent profitability if trends persist over the next several quarters.

Strong cash conversion

High free-cash-flow conversion (~90% of net income) signals that reported profits translate into usable cash. This durable cash generation underpins dividend funding, loan growth, and balance-sheet management, raising resilience versus banks with weaker cash conversion.

Negative Factors

Profitability below peak

Net margins of ~19% in 2025 remain materially below the ~30% peak in 2021–2022, implying structural compression versus prior years. Absent a sustained shift in margins or mix, long-term earnings power and return expansion may be constrained compared with historical highs.

Choppy free cash flow

Volatile FCF trends and modest operating cash relative to assets limit financial flexibility. For a bank, inconsistent cash flow timing raises sensitivity to deposit cost swings and credit stress, making capital allocation and steady dividend or growth programs harder to sustain.

Modest returns on equity

ROE near the high single-digits constrains the bank's ability to compound shareholder value internally. Modest returns require either sustained above-market growth or margin improvement to boost long-term shareholder returns, limiting upside from existing operations alone.

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa, CA), together with its subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking products and services to individuals and businesses in California. The company offers personal banking products and services, including checking and savings accounts; home loans, personal lines of credit, unsecured personal loans, and auto loans; overdraft line of credit accounts; and community rebuild loan programs. It also provides business banking products and services, such as business checking and savings accounts; merchant services; business equipment leasing; commercial real estate and construction loans; and business term loans, business line of credit, and small business administration (SBA) loans, as well as vineyard, winery, and agricultural loans. In addition, the company offers debit and credit cards; online and mobile banking services; and trust administration, investment management, and estate settlement services, as well as retirement accounts and plans. As of February 25, 2022, it operated 17 branches located in Sonoma County; and a commercial branch in Roseville, California. The company was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Santa Rosa, California. Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa, CA) operates as a subsidiary of Frank P. Doyle Trust, Article IX.

How the Company Makes Money

Exchange Bank’s primary earnings typically come from (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is generated by earning interest and fees on loans (such as commercial, consumer, and real estate loans) and on investment securities, while paying interest to depositors and other funding sources; the spread between interest earned and interest paid (the net interest margin) is usually the core driver of profitability for community banks. Noninterest income generally includes service charges and fees tied to deposit accounts (e.g., account maintenance fees, transaction and overdraft-related fees where applicable), fees from payment and card services, and other banking-related fees and charges; if the bank offers wealth management, trust, brokerage, or insurance services, those can also contribute fee income, but specific product-line contributions are null. Like most banks, results are influenced by credit performance (loan losses and recoveries), interest-rate conditions (which affect both loan yields and deposit costs), and local economic conditions in its operating markets; specific partnerships or material counterparties are null.

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Improving 2025 fundamentals: revenue growth accelerated (~14%) and net margin rose to ~19% from ~16% in 2024. Balance sheet risk decreased meaningfully with much lower leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.12 vs ~0.50 in 2024). Offsetting factors are profitability still below the 2021–2022 peak (net margins ~30% then) and somewhat choppy free cash flow despite good earnings quality (~90% of net income in 2025).

Income Statement

Revenue momentum improved meaningfully, with 2025 revenue up ~14% versus a near-flat 2024, and profits rising alongside it. Profitability remains solid for a regional bank, with net margin improving to ~19% in 2025 from ~16% in 2024. However, profitability is well below the unusually strong 2021–2022 period (net margins ~30% then), indicating some compression versus peak earnings power and a less consistent multi-year trajectory.

Balance Sheet

Leverage strengthened sharply: debt-to-equity improved to ~0.12 in 2025 from ~0.50 in 2024 and ~0.91 in 2023, suggesting a more conservative capital posture. Equity expanded, and returns on equity held steady around the high single-digits (~8–9%) in 2024–2025. The main drawback is that returns are materially lower than 2022 (~19%), implying weaker efficiency/profit generation versus prior years even with reduced leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is healthy and relatively well-aligned with earnings: free cash flow was ~90% of net income in 2025 (and low-to-mid 90%s in 2023–2024), indicating good earnings quality. That said, free cash flow has been choppy (declining in 2024 versus 2023, then recovering in 2025), and operating cash flow is modest relative to the asset base, which is typical for banks but still limits flexibility compared with more cash-generative business models.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	136.07M	155.61M	148.10M	114.15M	125.58M	118.95M
Gross Profit	114.79M	117.50M	110.45M	114.15M	123.50M	115.19M
EBITDA	37.22M	38.95M	33.58M	29.99M	52.33M	53.06M
Net Income	26.41M	29.97M	23.85M	20.19M	37.48M	36.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.27B	3.30B	3.30B	3.37B	3.33B	3.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	1.40B	28.64M	35.65M	48.37M	472.97M
Total Debt	40.00M	40.00M	140.00M	232.66M	28.21M	7.94M
Total Liabilities	2.95B	2.96B	3.02B	3.11B	3.13B	3.22B
Stockholders Equity	316.42M	346.73M	280.81M	255.41M	202.02M	319.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	21.72M	25.62M	36.15M	34.46M	27.58M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	24.11M	27.47M	38.69M	37.62M	37.80M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	95.44M	0.00	34.12M	-360.98M	-288.56M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-66.16M	0.00	-31.57M	-101.24M	387.32M

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 135.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXSR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 135.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 144.40, below the 50-day MA of 141.59, and above the 200-day MA of 119.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXSR.

Exchange Bank (Santa Rosa) Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXSR	80 Outperform	$238.25M	6.36	9.24%	4.02%	5.03%	37.60%
FRAF	73 Outperform	$217.29M	10.64	9.91%	2.51%	12.06%	10.38%
OPBK	69 Neutral	$185.69M	8.19	11.75%	3.32%	9.10%	12.36%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FXNC	66 Neutral	$233.38M	12.82	9.98%	2.49%	48.94%	11.61%
EFSI	53 Neutral	$173.25M	12.33	6.63%	3.11%	-1.45%	-31.32%
INBK	48 Neutral	$171.37M	8.61	-9.44%	1.07%	2.49%	-248.43%