Expand Energy (EXE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.39B
• Dividend Yield: 3.3%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 254.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: 124.77%
• EPS Growth: -87.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,500
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.10
• Shares Outstanding: 238,145,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,656,815
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,389,166
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.84
• 1Y Price Target: $132.39
• Price Target Upside: 36.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $101.00 ▲(4.04% Upside)

Expand Energy's strong earnings call and financial performance are offset by technical weakness and high valuation. The company's strategic initiatives and improved efficiencies are positive, but market volatility and valuation concerns weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

EXE remains focused on enhancing its balance sheet with its year-end net debt reduction target doubled to $1.0 billion.

Financial Performance

EXE showcased positive 2Q25 results with a strong FCF beat driven by a lower overall operating cost structure and capex.

Synergy and Efficiency

EXE is raising synergy targets to $600mm annually due to operational and capital efficiencies, including improvements in drilling optimization and reduction in IT spending.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Expectations

A free cash flow miss is anticipated due to softer pricing.

Market Sentiment

Consensus FCF expectations remain high, likely due to pricing, which keeps the analyst a bit more cautious.

Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chesapeake Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. It engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from underground reservoirs. The company holds interests in natural gas resource plays in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania and the Haynesville/Bossier Shales in northwestern Louisiana. As of December 31, 2023, the company owns a portfolio of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas assets, including interests in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. Chesapeake Energy Corporation was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

EXE makes money primarily through the sale of electricity generated from its renewable energy projects. The company enters into long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utilities, governments, and large corporations, ensuring a stable and predictable revenue stream. Additionally, EXE benefits from government incentives and subsidies aimed at promoting clean energy, which enhance their financial returns. The company also explores opportunities in energy trading and grid services, leveraging its expertise to optimize energy distribution and maximize profits. Strategic partnerships with technology companies and financial institutions further bolster their revenue by enabling expansion into new markets and enhancing project financing capabilities.

Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Expand Energy shows strong revenue growth and improved cash flow generation. However, low net profit margins and return on equity indicate areas needing improvement. The balance sheet is stable with manageable debt levels.

Income Statement

Expand Energy's income statement shows a strong recovery in the TTM period with a significant revenue growth rate of 56.83% compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin improved to 57.86%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin remains low at 2.35%, suggesting challenges in converting revenue into profit. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved but are still moderate, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Expand Energy indicates a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29 in the TTM period. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong asset base. However, the return on equity is low at 1.31%, indicating limited profitability from shareholders' investments. The company has reduced its debt levels, which is a positive sign for financial stability.

Cash Flow

Expand Energy's cash flow statement highlights a robust free cash flow growth of 186.7% in the TTM period, demonstrating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.10, indicating efficient cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.36 suggests a solid ability to generate cash relative to net income, supporting future investments and debt repayments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.77B	4.26B	6.05B	14.12B	7.30B	4.61B
Gross Profit	5.07B	1.14B	4.87B	8.16B	2.42B	620.00M
EBITDA	3.00B	1.01B	4.75B	5.56B	7.30B	-8.20B
Net Income	206.00M	-714.00M	2.42B	4.94B	6.33B	-9.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	27.77B	27.89B	14.38B	15.47B	11.01B	6.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	731.00M	317.00M	1.08B	130.00M	905.00M	279.00M
Total Debt	5.19B	5.83B	2.13B	3.21B	2.32B	9.13B
Total Liabilities	9.83B	10.33B	3.65B	6.34B	5.34B	11.93B
Stockholders Equity	17.94B	17.57B	10.73B	9.12B	5.67B	-5.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.16B	8.00M	551.00M	2.30B	1.05B	22.00M
Operating Cash Flow	3.22B	1.56B	2.38B	4.13B	1.79B	1.16B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.36B	-1.90B	473.00M	-3.40B	-916.00M	-992.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.15B	-419.00M	-1.89B	-1.45B	-237.00M	101.00M

Expand Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 97.08
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 97.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.72, below the 50-day MA of 101.03, and below the 200-day MA of 102.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXE.

Expand Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WDS	82 Outperform	$32.43B	11.02	8.33%	6.34%	15.31%	58.83%
DVN	77 Outperform	$23.12B	8.16	20.60%	3.20%	10.98%	-19.25%
CTRA	72 Outperform	$18.88B	11.86	11.42%	3.57%	16.56%	20.21%
EQT	72 Outperform	$32.69B	28.17	6.26%	1.22%	59.12%	12.12%
TPL	72 Outperform	$21.66B	46.96	37.01%	0.70%	10.69%	3.27%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$15.26B	7.30	3.22%	5.27%	4.16%	-60.82%
EXE	61 Neutral	$23.39B	254.10	1.46%	3.30%	124.77%	-87.12%

Expand Energy Corporate Events

Expand Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results

On July 29, 2025, Expand Energy Corporation reported its financial and operating results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a net cash provision of $1,322 million and a net income of $968 million. The company achieved significant operational efficiencies, reducing capital expenditures by $100 million and increasing annual synergy outlook to $600 million by 2026. With a focus on shareholder returns, Expand Energy plans to pay down $1 billion in net debt and return $585 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the first half of 2025. The company also released its inaugural Sustainability Report, underscoring its commitment to continuous improvement and value creation for shareholders.

Expand Energy Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting on June 5

On June 5, 2025, Expand Energy Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. Shareholders elected 11 directors to the board, approved the executive compensation for 2024, and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for 2025. These decisions are expected to influence the company’s strategic direction and financial transparency, impacting stakeholders’ confidence and the company’s market positioning.