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Expand Energy (EXE)
NASDAQ:EXE
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Expand Energy
(NASDAQ:EXE)
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Debt Management
The company neared its $500 million debt retirement goal by paying down $440 million of debt, indicating effective debt management and potential for shareholder returns.
Financial Performance
Expand Energy reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.395 billion, surpassing consensus and Benchmark's estimates, showcasing strong financial performance.
Market Position
Expand Energy is favored for investment in the Haynesville value over volume theme and is highly regarded in the future of gas theme, highlighting its strong market position.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow
EXE trades at a 2025 and 2026 free cash flow yield below its peers' average, potentially impacting its competitive standing.
Stock Buybacks
EXE focused solely on debt reduction and did not execute buybacks this quarter, which may disappoint some investors despite greater than anticipated free cash flow generation.
Expand Energy (EXE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.22B
Dividend Yield1.98%
Average Volume (3M)2.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)64.2
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth39.87%
EPS Growth-167.10%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength46
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.02
Shares Outstanding237,979,450
10 Day Avg. Volume2,836,127
30 Day Avg. Volume2,977,422
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.87
Price to Book (P/B)1.53
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio65.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.39
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$126.23Price Target Upside8.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionChesapeake Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. It engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from underground reservoirs. The company holds interests in natural gas resource plays in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania and the Haynesville/Bossier Shales in northwestern Louisiana. As of December 31, 2023, the company owns a portfolio of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas assets, including interests in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. Chesapeake Energy Corporation was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyExpand Energy makes money primarily through the sale of electricity generated from its renewable energy projects. The company enters into power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utility companies, businesses, and governments, ensuring a stable and long-term revenue stream. Additionally, EXE earns income by providing energy consulting services and through government incentives and subsidies that promote clean energy adoption. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with technology providers and financial institutions to enhance its project financing and technological capabilities, further contributing to its financial growth.
Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Expand Energy faces significant financial challenges with a sharp decline in revenue and negative profit margins. The balance sheet shows high leverage but a strong equity base, and cash flow generation remains robust despite losses.Income Statement
Expand Energy has experienced significant volatility in its income statement. The latest annual report shows a sharp decline in total revenue by approximately 45.7% from the previous year. The gross profit margin has dropped to 24.7% from 62.7%, while the net profit margin is negative, indicating substantial losses. The company also reported a negative EBIT margin, further demonstrating operational challenges.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a high level of leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, which is relatively stable compared to industry norms. However, return on equity has sharply turned negative due to significant net losses, indicating inefficiencies in utilizing shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 62.9%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to assets.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Expand Energy exhibits resilience in cash flow generation. Despite negative net income, the operating cash flow remains robust, with favorable operating cash flow to net income ratio suggesting effective cash management. Free cash flow is positive, albeit with low growth, indicating potential for reinvestment and debt servicing.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 5.36B | 4.22B | 7.78B | 11.44B | 7.30B | 5.21B | Gross Profit |
| 1.27B | 1.04B | 4.87B | 8.16B | 2.42B | 620.00M | EBIT |
| -1.07B | -803.00M | 3.14B | 3.78B | 2.33B | -8.70B | EBITDA |
| 1.01B | 1.01B | 4.76B | 5.56B | 7.30B | -8.20B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -989.00M | -714.00M | 2.42B | 4.94B | 6.33B | -9.73B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 349.00M | 317.00M | 1.79B | 130.00M | 905.00M | 279.00M | Total Assets |
| 27.93B | 27.89B | 14.38B | 15.47B | 11.01B | 6.58B | Total Debt |
| 0.00 | 5.75B | 2.11B | 3.09B | 2.28B | 1.93B | Net Debt |
| 4.96B | 5.43B | 1.03B | 2.96B | 1.37B | 1.65B | Total Liabilities |
| 10.74B | 10.33B | 3.65B | 6.34B | 5.34B | 11.93B | Stockholders Equity |
| 17.19B | 17.57B | 10.73B | 9.12B | 5.67B | -5.34B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 406.00M | 8.00M | 551.00M | 2.30B | 1.05B | 22.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 2.10B | 1.56B | 2.38B | 4.13B | 1.79B | 1.16B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -2.04B | -1.90B | 473.00M | -3.40B | -916.00M | -992.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -895.00M | -419.00M | -1.89B | -1.45B | -237.00M | 101.00M |
Expand Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
115.96
Price Trends
107.50
Positive
104.61
Positive
94.29
Positive
Market Momentum
2.71
Negative
66.70
Neutral
79.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 115.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.39, above the 50-day MA of 107.50, and above the 200-day MA of 94.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXE.
Expand Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $26.59B | 7.40 | 10.23% | 8.46% | -0.93% | 115.30% | |
75 Outperform | $40.63B | 16.71 | 9.43% | 2.18% | 1.35% | -33.30% | |
73 Outperform | $39.69B | 8.31 | 14.26% | 4.57% | 47.89% | -7.87% | |
73 Outperform | $20.01B | 7.09 | 20.88% | 4.01% | 12.06% | -16.37% | |
72 Outperform | $18.72B | 14.31 | 9.40% | 3.47% | 10.33% | -0.13% | |
57 Neutral | $7.06B | 3.07 | -3.48% | 5.79% | 0.59% | -50.58% | |
53 Neutral | $27.22B | 64.20 | -7.10% | 1.98% | 39.87% | -167.10% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
EXE
Expand Energy
115.96
27.70
31.38%
CTRA
Coterra Energy
24.52
-2.12
-7.96%
DVN
Devon Energy
31.16
-16.19
-34.19%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
41.29
-19.84
-32.46%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
13.94
-3.19
-18.62%
FANG
Diamondback
135.86
-55.88
-29.14%
Expand Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 8.45%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call for Expand Energy reflected a generally positive outlook with successful integration efforts, investment grade ratings achievement, and strong cash flow and capital returns strategy. Despite facing market volatility and potential cost increases due to tariffs, the company is well-placed with a solid hedging strategy and record operational performance.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Integration and Synergies
The integration of Chesapeake and Southwestern is on track to achieve approximately $400 million in synergies in 2025 and $500 million by year-end 2026. The merger has allowed the elimination of approximately $1 billion in gross debt, including $440 million in Q1.
Investment Grade Ratings Achieved
The company joined the S&P 500 index and was upgraded to investment grade by Moody's, now holding investment grade ratings from all agencies.
Strong Cash Flow and Capital Returns
The company has returned about $3.7 billion to investors through dividends and buybacks, demonstrating a strong commitment to returning cash to shareholders.
Hedging Strategy Success
Since the start of the year, 740 Bcfe of new hedges were added with an average floor price of $3.75 and an average ceiling of $5.10. Last year, the company recognized $1.6 billion of hedge gains.
Record Operational Performance
The company achieved record quarters for footage per day in Haynesville and Northeast Appalachia, and drilled the longest lateral ever in Southwest Appalachia at over 25,000 feet.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility and Pricing Pressures
Recent market volatility has affected the company's near-term strategy, with lower spot prices for natural gas impacting immediate financial forecasts.
Tariff Impact on Costs
There is potential for increased costs due to tariffs, particularly in casing costs, although 80% of casing is domestically sourced providing some insulation.
Company Guidance
During the Expand Energy 2025 First Quarter Earnings Teleconference, the company provided robust guidance, highlighting their strategic focus amidst market volatility. They aim to allocate capital around a mid-cycle gas price of $3.50 to $4, despite current spot prices being lower. The company plans to achieve approximately $400 million in synergies by 2025 and $500 million by 2026. They have also reduced gross debt by about $1 billion, including $440 million in the first quarter. Expand Energy expects to exit 2025 at approximately 7.2 Bcfe per day and grow production to 7.5 Bcfe per day by 2026. The company has hedged about 740 Bcfe of new hedges for 2026 at an average floor price of $3.75 and a ceiling of $5.10. They are also seeing strong free cash flow, with a significant inflection expected in 2026, allowing for substantial capital returns to shareholders.Expand Energy Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Expand Energy Joins S&P 500 and Upgraded by Moody’s
Positive
Apr 29, 2025
On April 29, 2025, Expand Energy Corporation reported its financial and operating results for the first quarter of 2025, with a net cash flow from operating activities of $1,096 million and a net loss of $249 million. The company achieved an adjusted net income of $487 million and produced approximately 6.79 Bcfe/d, primarily natural gas. Notably, Expand Energy was added to the S&P 500 and upgraded to an Investment Grade credit rating by Moody’s. The company plans to pay a quarterly dividend and aims to capture $400 million in synergies by the end of 2025, with a total target of $500 million by 2026. Expand Energy’s strategic initiatives include operating 12 rigs and investing $2.7 billion in 2025 to increase production capacity, positioning itself to grow production in 2026 if market conditions are favorable.
Private Placements and FinancingDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Expand Energy Reports Q4 Loss, Plans 2025 Growth
Neutral
Feb 26, 2025
On February 26, 2025, Expand Energy Corporation reported its financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, alongside its 2025 outlook. The company experienced a net loss of $399 million in the fourth quarter but achieved an adjusted net income of $131 million. It also announced a significant investment grade issuance and plans to increase its production capacity in 2025. The company aims to capture $400 million in synergies in 2025 and achieve a total of $500 million by the end of 2026. Expand Energy plans to pay a quarterly dividend and allocate $500 million to debt reduction in 2025, with additional cash flow expected for dividends, share repurchases, and balance sheet improvements.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.