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Expand Energy (EXE)
NASDAQ:EXE
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Expand Energy
(NASDAQ:EXE)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$112.00
â–²(9.00% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by improved financial positioning (notably the stronger balance sheet and 2025 cash-flow rebound) and a constructive earnings outlook with efficiency gains and clear 2026 guidance. This is tempered by weak technical momentum (price below major moving averages with negative MACD) and a relatively high P/E for a cyclical E&P business, even with a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Eliminating reported debt materially increases financial flexibility and resilience to commodity swings. A debt-free position reduces interest burden, supports prioritized deleveraging, funds targeted buybacks/dividends, and improves ability to fund CapEx or opportunistic M&A without near-term refinancing risk.
Improved cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and rising free cash flow provide durable internal funding for maintenance and growth CapEx, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Stronger cash conversion supports multi-year capital plans and lowers dependency on external financing in cyclical downturns.
Haynesville breakeven & productivity gains
Lower breakevens and better well productivity create a structural cost advantage in core basins, reducing maintenance capital and improving downside protection. Combined with storage and commercial focus, this enhances margins, optionality to reach premium markets, and long-term cash resilience per management guidance.
Negative Factors
Earnings & cash volatility
Commodity-driven revenue and margin volatility undermines earnings predictability and planning. Large swings in profitability and intermittent free-cash-flow conversion complicate long-term capital allocation, make sustaining shareholder returns during downturns harder, and increase execution risk over the cycle.
Large 2029 bond maturity
A significant 2029 maturity forces prioritized balance-sheet repair, which may constrain growth investments, buybacks or M&A until refinanced or paid down. The maturity creates a multi-year capital-allocation overhang and refinancing risk that could limit strategic flexibility if market conditions tighten.
Leadership transition uncertainty
An extended CEO search and management turnover risks slowing strategic initiatives and commercial execution. Leadership uncertainty can delay decisions on downstream deals, storage expansion, or M&A, reducing the pace of realization of targeted premium-markets strategy over the medium term.
Expand Energy (EXE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.47B
Dividend Yield2.87%
Average Volume (3M)3.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.6
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth246.16%
EPS Growth82.62%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.00
Shares Outstanding238,169,700
10 Day Avg. Volume3,534,432
30 Day Avg. Volume3,467,455
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)<0.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00216
P/FCF Ratio0.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$134.37Price Target Upside30.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExpand Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. It engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from underground reservoirs. The company holds interests in natural gas resource plays in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania and the Haynesville/Bossier Shales in northwestern Louisiana. As of December 31, 2023, the company owns a portfolio of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas assets, including interests in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. The company was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation and changed its name to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. Expand Energy Corporation was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyExpand Energy generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its energy storage systems and solar power solutions to residential and commercial clients. The company also offers installation services and ongoing maintenance contracts, which provide a steady income. Additionally, Expand Energy has established partnerships with utility companies and government agencies to participate in incentive programs that promote renewable energy adoption, further enhancing its revenue potential. The integration of energy management software into its product offerings allows the company to charge subscription fees for clients seeking advanced analytics and optimization tools, creating a recurring revenue model. Overall, the combination of product sales, service contracts, and strategic partnerships contributes significantly to Expand Energy's earnings.
Expand Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution (notably a 15% reduction in Haynesville breakevens), meaningful hedging gains ($200M), storage growth (to ~5 Bcf), and a clear strategic pivot to capture downstream margin (targeting $0.20/Mcf uplift ≈ $500M EBITDA). Management also reiterated disciplined capital allocation with continued debt reduction and a flexible production/CapEx plan (~7.5 Bcf/d; ~$2.85B CapEx). Major risks discussed include weather-related downtime, lagging commercial capture of new demand, leadership transition uncertainty, a competitive storage/M&A environment, and a large 2029 bond maturity that prioritizes balance‑sheet repair. On balance, the positive operational and financial achievements and a concrete plan to pursue premium markets outweigh the transitional and market challenges described.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Haynesville Breakeven Reduction & Inventory Improvement
Company achieved a 15% reduction in Haynesville breakevens over the year and added five years of inventory below $3.50 in one year, supporting lower maintenance capital and improved downside protection.
Hedging Gains
Hedging program delivered approximately $200,000,000 in gains during the year, helping offset commodity volatility and protect cash flows.
Storage Build-Out and Volatility Management
Added ~3.5 Bcf of storage in the last quarter, increasing total owned storage to ~5 Bcf (up from 1.5 Bcf), enabling better capture of seasonal/geographic price volatility and generating realized gains on storage transactions.
Haynesville Productivity & Completion Improvements
First‑year cumulative production expectations rose; 20% of 2025 TILs exceeded 1 Bcf per 1,000 ft and management expects that to rise above 30% in 2026 (a >10 percentage point increase), driven by improved completion designs (Gen1→Gen3), increased proppant intensity, in‑house sand sourcing and longer laterals.
Production and CapEx Guidance with Improved Maintenance CapEx
2026 guidance centers on ~7.5 Bcf/d average production (range 7.25–7.75 Bcf/d) with ~$2.85 billion of CapEx to deliver that volume; maintenance CapEx has materially improved versus a year ago (management noted ~$225 million lower to deliver same 7.5 Bcf/d level compared with prior year program).
Large Market Opportunity & Premium-Market Optionality
Management highlighted structural demand growth (management cited 35%–40% increase in natural gas demand over the next five years and ~25 Bcf/d coming online in the U.S., about half from LNG) and increased optionality to reach premium Gulf Coast markets (Gillis/Perryville) improving realizations potential.
Targeted Realization Uplift
Company set a commercial goal to capture an incremental $0.20/Mcf in realizations (targeted over a 3–5 year horizon), which management equates to roughly $500,000,000 of incremental EBITDA if achieved.
Balance Sheet Progress & Shareholder Returns
Management emphasized debt reduction during the year while also returning capital to shareholders via buybacks/dividends; stated priority is to continue de‑leveraging the balance sheet while opportunistically returning capital.
Operational Execution & Cost Reduction Initiatives
Company reported strong operational performance across basins, ongoing D&C cost reduction efforts (tool reliability, AI optimization) and expects further declines in drilling & completion costs driven by efficiency and sourcing improvements.
Strategic Commercial Shift
Announced a tactical shift to increase marketing focus (including moving commercial focus closer to customers with a Houston presence), pursue premium markets, storage use and downstream participation to capture margin beyond the wellhead.
Negative Updates
Weather-Related Disruptions (Winter Storm FERN)
Haynesville experienced ice accumulation (over an inch) that caused power and water-handling issues and led to production impacts and downtime in late January; Appalachia had curtailments which later returned, contributing to quarterly variability.
Commercial / Marketing Execution Lag
Management acknowledged disappointing progress on the third leg of marketing—capturing and facilitating new demand—stating the team has not done enough to secure long‑term downstream deals and must be more aggressive to capture premium margins.
Leadership Changes and CEO Search Uncertainty
Senior leadership changes were announced; management expects a CEO search that could take ~6–9 months, introducing near-term executive uncertainty and transition risk.
Competitive & Constrained Storage Market
Although storage was expanded, management noted the storage market is highly competitive and capacity is constrained, making further storage acquisitions costly and challenging to scale quickly.
Large 2029 Bond Maturity and Capital Allocation Pressure
Management described the 2029 bond maturity as a 'big nut', signaling a material upcoming debt amortization risk; this is driving a stated priority for balance-sheet repair which may limit the pace/size of future buybacks.
M&A Pricing Environment & Selective Deal Activity
Management passed on multiple potential transactions during the year due to high prices; an aggressive M&A market means inorganic growth opportunities may be limited unless valuation discipline is relaxed.
Cash Tax Profile Will Shift Higher Over Time
Minimal cash taxes in the near term reflect OBDD benefits, but management expects to become a full cash taxpayer by closer to 2030, implying rising cash tax outflows over the medium term.
Company Guidance
The company guided to roughly 7.5 Bcf/d of average production in 2026 (range ~7.25–7.75 Bcf/d) funded by roughly $2.85 billion of 2026 CapEx, with the program remaining efficient up to ~7.75 Bcf/d; management reiterated a mid‑cycle price assumption of $3.50–$4.00 and highlighted a 15% reduction in Haynesville breakevens and improved well productivity (≈20% of 2025 TILs >1.0 Bcf/1,000 ft, targeting >30% in 2026). They said maintenance capital has come down materially versus a year ago (about $225M lower to deliver 7.5 Bcf/d), D&C costs should modestly reduce, storage has grown to ~5 Bcf (added ~3.5 Bcf last quarter), hedges generated ~$200M of gains in 2025, cash taxes remain minimal in 2026 due to OBDD (full cash taxpayer likely closer to 2030), and the company will prioritize continued debt paydown (noting a large 2029 bond) while still considering opportunistic buybacks and disciplined commercial investments aimed at a $0.20/Mcf realizations uplift (~$500M EBITDA opportunity).Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a strong 2025 rebound with solid profitability and improved cash generation, plus a materially strengthened balance sheet (debt reported at $0). Offsetting this is pronounced multi-year volatility typical of commodity-linked E&P and only moderate free-cash-flow conversion versus net income.Income Statement
Revenue and profitability are volatile, but the most recent year shows a strong rebound. 2025 revenue rose to $12.1B (up 11.8%) with solid profitability (about 15.0% net margin), improving materially from a loss in 2024. That said, results have swung sharply across the cycle (large loss in 2020, very strong 2021–2023, then down in 2024), which reduces earnings quality and predictability for an E&P business.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved significantly: total debt moved from $5.8B in 2024 to $0 in 2025, while equity increased to $18.6B on a $28.3B asset base, indicating a much stronger capital structure and financial flexibility. The main weakness is historical balance-sheet instability (notably negative equity in 2020) and some inconsistency in the provided return-on-equity figures (reported as 0.0 in 2025 despite positive net income), which clouds trend assessment.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation strengthened in 2025 with operating cash flow of $4.6B and free cash flow of $1.8B (up 25.1%), a clear improvement from near-breakeven free cash flow in 2024. However, free cash flow conversion versus net income remains moderate in 2025 (about 40%), and cash flow has been choppy across years, reflecting commodity-driven swings and capital intensity.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.12B | 4.22B | 7.78B | 11.44B | 7.30B |
| Gross Profit | 9.75B | 1.14B | 5.04B | 8.16B | 2.42B |
| EBITDA | 5.03B | 1.02B | 4.76B | 5.56B | 7.30B |
| Net Income | 1.82B | -714.00M | 2.42B | 4.94B | 6.33B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 28.29B | 27.89B | 14.38B | 15.47B | 11.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 616.00M | 317.00M | 1.08B | 130.00M | 905.00M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 5.83B | 2.13B | 3.21B | 2.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.71B | 10.33B | 3.65B | 6.34B | 5.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.58B | 17.57B | 10.73B | 9.12B | 5.67B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.84B | 8.00M | 551.00M | 2.30B | 1.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.58B | 1.56B | 2.38B | 4.13B | 1.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.76B | -1.90B | 473.00M | -3.40B | -916.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.51B | -419.00M | -1.89B | -1.45B | -237.00M |
Expand Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
102.75
Price Trends
108.18
Negative
108.93
Negative
106.66
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.65
Positive
36.12
Neutral
18.91
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 102.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.23, below the 50-day MA of 108.18, and below the 200-day MA of 106.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXE.
Expand Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $29.40B | 61.79 | 39.37% | 0.72% | 12.48% | 6.24% | |
77 Outperform | $27.12B | 10.56 | 17.60% | 2.64% | 11.14% | -21.32% | |
76 Outperform | $36.04B | 17.45 | 9.20% | 1.17% | 64.84% | 219.47% | |
74 Outperform | $34.54B | 11.98 | 8.33% | 6.85% | 15.31% | 58.83% | |
74 Outperform | $23.57B | 14.33 | 11.86% | 3.39% | 26.13% | 31.42% | |
68 Neutral | $24.47B | 13.57 | 10.07% | 2.87% | 246.16% | 82.62% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
EXE
Expand Energy
99.52
-4.65
-4.46%
CTRA
Coterra Energy
31.47
3.75
13.54%
DVN
Devon Energy
44.44
7.89
21.58%
EQT
EQT
58.63
5.03
9.37%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
18.72
4.93
35.72%
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
440.71
-24.72
-5.31%
Expand Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Expand Energy Posts Strong Q4 Results, Boosts 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Expand Energy reported a more than 150% year‑over‑year increase in fourth‑quarter 2025 operating cash flow to $956 million, net income of $553 million and adjusted EBITDAX of $1.43 billion, driven by 15% higher production of about 7.40 Bcfe/d, 92% of which was natural gas. For full‑year 2025, the company generated $4.58 billion in operating cash flow, $1.82 billion in net income, cut gross debt by about $660 million, returned $865 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, and highlighted merger synergies and improved Haynesville breakevens as it positions for continued growth in 2026.
For 2026, Expand Energy guided to roughly 7.5 Bcfe/d of production on about $2.85 billion of capital spending while running 11–12 rigs, including Western Haynesville appraisal activity, and plans at least $1 billion of additional debt reduction alongside ongoing base dividends and opportunistic repurchases. Management said higher volumes with lower capital should support consistent free cash flow growth, reinforcing balance sheet strength and the company’s role as a key supplier to growing natural gas demand in power, industrial and LNG markets.
The most recent analyst rating on (EXE) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Expand Energy stock, see the EXE Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Expand Energy Relocates Headquarters to Houston Amid Transition
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
Expand Energy Corporation, North America’s largest natural gas producer, focuses on leveraging its scale, asset base and financial strength to connect natural gas supply with growing domestic and global demand. The company emphasizes delivering affordable, reliable, lower-carbon energy and sustainable returns to stakeholders through operational excellence and a returns-driven strategy.
On February 6, 2026, Expand Energy’s board appointed Chairman Michael Wichterich as interim president and CEO, replacing Domenic (Nick) J. Dell’Osso Jr., who also resigned from the board but will advise during the transition. Wichterich’s interim pay package combines a sizeable monthly salary with equity-based incentives tied partly to total shareholder return, while Dell’Osso’s exit is being handled under existing severance terms.
On February 9, 2026, the company announced plans to relocate its corporate headquarters from Oklahoma City to Houston in mid-2026, concentrating the executive team closer to key energy markets while keeping Oklahoma City as an important operational center. Expand Energy reaffirmed its synergy, capital and operating outlook for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, signaling continuity in its financial and operational plans despite the leadership transition and strategic move.
The most recent analyst rating on (EXE) stock is a Hold with a $119.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Expand Energy stock, see the EXE Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.