Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)
NASDAQ:EXE
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Expand Energy
(NASDAQ:EXE)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$103.00
▲(7.49% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/05/26
The score is driven primarily by a strong TTM financial rebound with conservative leverage and strong cash generation, plus a very attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend). Offsetting these positives, technical signals remain weak with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD, while the earnings call was constructive but still highlighted commodity-price sensitivity and execution/timing risks for longer-lead LNG and growth initiatives.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Sustained TTM operating cash flow (~$5.9B) and meaningful free cash flow (~$2.9B) provide durable internal funding for capex, debt reduction and shareholder returns. High cash conversion supports optionality through cycles and reduces reliance on external financing for growth and LNG commitments.
Negative Factors
Commodity price cyclicality
Spot natural gas trading below breakeven means realized earnings and FCF remain sensitive to market moves. Dependence on hedging smooths near-term results but doesn't eliminate structural exposure; prolonged low prices would compress margins, limit repeatable free cash flow, and constrain capital allocation flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Sustained TTM operating cash flow (~$5.9B) and meaningful free cash flow (~$2.9B) provide durable internal funding for capex, debt reduction and shareholder returns. High cash conversion supports optionality through cycles and reduces reliance on external financing for growth and LNG commitments.
Read all positive factors
Expand Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Expand Energy (EXE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.83B
Dividend Yield2.87%
Average Volume (3M)3.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.6
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth97.02%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.56
Shares Outstanding239,228,850
10 Day Avg. Volume3,640,313
30 Day Avg. Volume3,061,078
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio14.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$131.94Price Target Upside37.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)8.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.41B
Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Expand Energy Corporation functions as an independent entity primarily focused on the discovery and extraction of energy resources throughout the United States. Its core operations involve the acquisition, exploration, and subsequent development o...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Expand Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture: sizable free cash flow ($1.7B), meaningful debt reduction ($1.3B), solid shareholder returns (~$290M), successful monetization of volatility (~$90M), and early commercial progress into LNG (1.15 Mtpa SPA with Delfin). Operational reliability (98% Appalachia uptime) and a favorable Haynesville position (72% lowest-breakeven inventory; ability to serve ~90% of expected U.S. demand growth) underpin confidence. Challenges include short-term Gulf Coast storm impacts shifting CapEx, spot gas prices below breakeven requiring continued hedging, early-stage uncertainty in Western Haynesville, potential service/supply constraints on the Gulf Coast, and multi-year timelines for some LNG/industrial FIDs. Overall, highlights and quantitative achievements materially outweigh the lowlights, supporting a positive outlook while acknowledging execution and market risks.Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow in Q1 (inclusive of working capital inflows), providing substantial liquidity to pursue debt reduction, shareholder returns, and commercial initiatives.
Negative Updates
Gulf Coast Storm Impact & CapEx Shift
Gulf Coast assets were impacted by Winter Storm Fern, resulting in some CapEx being shifted from Q1 into Q2 and temporarily affecting operational timing; Q2 CapEx guidance is higher as a result.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow in Q1 (inclusive of working capital inflows), providing substantial liquidity to pursue debt reduction, shareholder returns, and commercial initiatives.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Expand left full‑year production and capital guidance unchanged and expects to deliver roughly 7.5 Bcf/d with full‑year CapEx of $2.85 billion (Q2 is the CapEx peak after some Q1 timing shifts); in Q1 it generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow (inclusive of working capital), used cash to reduce gross debt by $1.3 billion (meeting its ≥$1.0 billion deleveraging goal) and returned over $290 million to shareholders via base dividends and buybacks, while adding ~0.5 Bcfd of term sales/firm transportation, monetizing nearly $90 million of incremental value in the quarter, and signing a Delfin LNG offtake SPA for 1.15 million tpy; management targets about $0.20 of margin improvement (≈$500 million of repeatable incremental free cash flow per year), says the company can serve nearly 90% of expected U.S. demand growth, expects Northeast demand to grow ~4–6 Bcf/d, notes Haynesville contains ~72% of the basin’s lowest‑breakeven inventory and that corporate breakeven is “well below $3/MMBtu” while planning on a mid‑cycle price of ~$3.50–$4/MMBtu; Appalachia delivered ~98% uptime through Winter Storm Fern.Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.10B | 11.65B | 4.22B | 7.78B | 11.44B | 7.30B |
| Gross Profit | 7.53B | 5.42B | 1.14B | 5.04B | 8.16B | 2.42B |
| EBITDA | 7.30B | 5.50B | 1.02B | 4.76B | 5.56B | 7.30B |
| Net Income | 3.23B | 1.82B | -714.00M | 2.42B | 4.94B | 6.33B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 29.52B | 28.29B | 27.89B | 14.38B | 15.47B | 11.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.22B | 960.00M | 317.00M | 1.08B | 130.00M | 905.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.06B | 5.06B | 5.83B | 2.13B | 3.21B | 2.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.97B | 9.71B | 10.33B | 3.65B | 6.34B | 5.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.55B | 18.58B | 17.57B | 10.73B | 9.12B | 5.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.86B | 1.84B | 8.00M | 551.00M | 2.30B | 1.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.87B | 4.58B | 1.56B | 2.38B | 4.13B | 1.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.85B | -2.76B | -1.90B | 473.00M | -3.40B | -916.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.14B | -1.51B | -419.00M | -1.89B | -1.45B | -237.00M |
Expand Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
95.82
Price Trends
95.86
Negative
101.17
Negative
103.40
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.46
Positive
36.52
Neutral
11.15
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 95.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.40, below the 50-day MA of 95.86, and below the 200-day MA of 103.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXE.
Expand Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $20.83B | 6.60 | 17.39% | 2.87% | 97.02% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $32.02B | 9.69 | 14.34% | 1.17% | 50.77% | 800.70% | |
73 Outperform | $42.19B | 15.20 | 7.67% | 6.85% | -7.02% | -23.68% | |
72 Outperform | $25.49B | 51.88 | 35.52% | 0.72% | 15.30% | 9.42% | |
69 Neutral | $51.45B | 12.41 | 14.78% | 2.64% | 1.96% | -18.06% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
EXE
Expand Energy
88.78
-24.06
-21.32%
DVN
Devon Energy
45.31
10.85
31.47%
EQT
EQT
51.94
-4.24
-7.55%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
23.07
7.65
49.65%
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
378.91
8.04
2.17%
Expand Energy Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Expand Energy Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on June 4, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation reported that investors elected all nine board nominees to serve until the next annual meeting or until successors are chosen. The voting results showed bro...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Expand Energy Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results, Lowers Debt
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
Expand Energy Corporation reported its first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, 2026, highlighting strong cash generation with $2.4 billion in net cash from operations, net income of $1.16 billion and adjusted EBITDAX of $1.97 billion. The company ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Expand Energy Announces Planned 2026 Board Leadership Transition
Neutral
Apr 10, 2026
Expand Energy Corporation announced that director John D. Gass will retire from its Board of Directors at the conclusion of the company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, after choosing not to stand for re-election on April 6, 2026. The ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Expand Energy Names Marcel Teunissen New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation appointed Marcel Teunissen as executive vice president and chief financial officer, replacing interim CFO Brittany Raiford, who will continue as vice president of treasury and investor relations. Teuniss...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.