Expand Energy (EXE)
NASDAQ:EXE
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Expand Energy
(NASDAQ:EXE)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$111.00
▲(15.84% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:04/29/26
Overall score reflects strong current financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (robust free cash flow, deleveraging, reaffirmed guidance, LNG/commercial progress), supported by an attractive dividend and very low provided P/E. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and the company’s demonstrated cyclicality and cash-flow volatility through commodity cycles.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow & deleveraging
Sustained free cash flow and active debt reduction materially improve financial flexibility. Reliable quarterly FCF funds CapEx, dividends, buybacks and LNG commercial initiatives while lowering leverage, reducing refinancing risk and preserving capacity to invest through multi-year commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Commodity cyclicality & FCF volatility
Multi-year swings in commodity prices have produced volatile margins and uneven free cash flow, constraining long-term planning. This structural exposure forces reliance on hedging and can reduce investment predictability, pressuring returns and making dividend/shareback plans less certain in weak cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow & deleveraging
Sustained free cash flow and active debt reduction materially improve financial flexibility. Reliable quarterly FCF funds CapEx, dividends, buybacks and LNG commercial initiatives while lowering leverage, reducing refinancing risk and preserving capacity to invest through multi-year commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Expand Energy (EXE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.15B
Dividend Yield2.87%
Average Volume (3M)4.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)<0.1
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth172.20%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.83
Shares Outstanding240,398,250
10 Day Avg. Volume3,478,207
30 Day Avg. Volume4,004,168
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio14.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$131.55Price Target Upside37.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)9.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.48B
Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. It engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from undergrou...
How the Company Makes Money
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Expand Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Expand Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture: sizable free cash flow ($1.7B), meaningful debt reduction ($1.3B), solid shareholder returns (~$290M), successful monetization of volatility (~$90M), and early commercial progress into LNG (1.15 Mtpa SPA with Delfin). Operational reliability (98% Appalachia uptime) and a favorable Haynesville position (72% lowest-breakeven inventory; ability to serve ~90% of expected U.S. demand growth) underpin confidence. Challenges include short-term Gulf Coast storm impacts shifting CapEx, spot gas prices below breakeven requiring continued hedging, early-stage uncertainty in Western Haynesville, potential service/supply constraints on the Gulf Coast, and multi-year timelines for some LNG/industrial FIDs. Overall, highlights and quantitative achievements materially outweigh the lowlights, supporting a positive outlook while acknowledging execution and market risks.Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow in Q1 (inclusive of working capital inflows), providing substantial liquidity to pursue debt reduction, shareholder returns, and commercial initiatives.
Negative Updates
Gulf Coast Storm Impact & CapEx Shift
Gulf Coast assets were impacted by Winter Storm Fern, resulting in some CapEx being shifted from Q1 into Q2 and temporarily affecting operational timing; Q2 CapEx guidance is higher as a result.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow in Q1 (inclusive of working capital inflows), providing substantial liquidity to pursue debt reduction, shareholder returns, and commercial initiatives.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Expand left full‑year production and capital guidance unchanged and expects to deliver roughly 7.5 Bcf/d with full‑year CapEx of $2.85 billion (Q2 is the CapEx peak after some Q1 timing shifts); in Q1 it generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow (inclusive of working capital), used cash to reduce gross debt by $1.3 billion (meeting its ≥$1.0 billion deleveraging goal) and returned over $290 million to shareholders via base dividends and buybacks, while adding ~0.5 Bcfd of term sales/firm transportation, monetizing nearly $90 million of incremental value in the quarter, and signing a Delfin LNG offtake SPA for 1.15 million tpy; management targets about $0.20 of margin improvement (≈$500 million of repeatable incremental free cash flow per year), says the company can serve nearly 90% of expected U.S. demand growth, expects Northeast demand to grow ~4–6 Bcf/d, notes Haynesville contains ~72% of the basin’s lowest‑breakeven inventory and that corporate breakeven is “well below $3/MMBtu” while planning on a mid‑cycle price of ~$3.50–$4/MMBtu; Appalachia delivered ~98% uptime through Winter Storm Fern.Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.10B | 11.65B | 4.22B | 7.78B | 11.44B | 7.30B |
| Gross Profit | 7.53B | 5.42B | 1.14B | 5.04B | 8.16B | 2.42B |
| EBITDA | 7.10B | 5.03B | 1.02B | 4.76B | 5.56B | 7.30B |
| Net Income | 3.23B | 1.82B | -714.00M | 2.42B | 4.94B | 6.33B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 29.52B | 28.29B | 27.89B | 14.38B | 15.47B | 11.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.22B | 960.00M | 317.00M | 1.08B | 130.00M | 905.00M |
| Total Debt | 875.00M | 5.06B | 5.83B | 2.13B | 3.21B | 2.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.97B | 9.71B | 10.33B | 3.65B | 6.34B | 5.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.55B | 18.58B | 17.57B | 10.73B | 9.12B | 5.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.86B | 1.84B | 8.00M | 551.00M | 2.30B | 1.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.87B | 4.58B | 1.56B | 2.38B | 4.13B | 1.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.85B | -2.76B | -1.90B | 473.00M | -3.40B | -916.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.14B | -1.51B | -419.00M | -1.89B | -1.45B | -237.00M |
Expand Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
95.82
Price Trends
104.93
Negative
107.59
Negative
104.64
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.99
Positive
32.82
Neutral
14.29
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 95.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 104.06, below the 50-day MA of 104.93, and below the 200-day MA of 104.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXE.
Expand Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $23.15B | <0.01 | 10.13% | 2.87% | 172.20% | ― | |
77 Outperform | $25.57B | 11.67 | 11.77% | 3.39% | 33.57% | 49.45% | |
74 Outperform | $29.93B | 10.12 | 17.47% | 2.64% | 7.46% | -8.75% | |
73 Outperform | $36.68B | 6.40 | 14.34% | 1.17% | 50.77% | 800.70% | |
73 Outperform | $43.77B | 10.87 | 7.67% | 6.85% | -7.02% | -23.68% | |
71 Outperform | $30.12B | 41.14 | 36.18% | 0.72% | 13.09% | 6.06% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
EXE
Expand Energy
100.99
0.23
0.23%
CTRA
Coterra Energy
35.68
11.93
50.26%
DVN
Devon Energy
51.08
21.44
72.32%
EQT
EQT
59.11
10.25
20.98%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
24.00
11.75
95.95%
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
439.03
12.04
2.82%
Expand Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Expand Energy Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results, Lowers Debt
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
Expand Energy Corporation reported its first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, 2026, highlighting strong cash generation with $2.4 billion in net cash from operations, net income of $1.16 billion and adjusted EBITDAX of $1.97 billion. The company ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Expand Energy Announces Planned 2026 Board Leadership Transition
Neutral
Apr 10, 2026
Expand Energy Corporation announced that director John D. Gass will retire from its Board of Directors at the conclusion of the company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, after choosing not to stand for re-election on April 6, 2026. The ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Expand Energy Names Marcel Teunissen New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation appointed Marcel Teunissen as executive vice president and chief financial officer, replacing interim CFO Brittany Raiford, who will continue as vice president of treasury and investor relations. Teuniss...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Expand Energy Posts Strong Q4 Results, Boosts 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Expand Energy reported a more than 150% year‑over‑year increase in fourth‑quarter 2025 operating cash flow to $956 million, net income of $553 million and adjusted EBITDAX of $1.43 billion, driven by 15% hig...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Expand Energy Relocates Headquarters to Houston Amid Transition
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
Expand Energy Corporation, North America’s largest natural gas producer, focuses on leveraging its scale, asset base and financial strength to connect natural gas supply with growing domestic and global demand. The company emphasizes deliver...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.