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Expand Energy
(NASDAQ:EXE)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$105.00
▲(14.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
EXE scores well primarily on strong current fundamentals (profitability and a very conservative latest leverage profile) and an attractive valuation (low P/E plus a meaningful dividend). The score is supported by a constructive earnings call emphasizing strong free cash flow, deleveraging, and operational execution, and by positive strategic M&A. The main constraint is trend/technical positioning, with shares still below the 100D/200D averages and business results remaining sensitive to gas pricing and execution timing.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, sizable free cash flow ($1.7B reported) provides durable funding for debt reduction, buybacks, dividends, and selective reinvestment. Consistent cash conversion underpins financial flexibility and long-term capital allocation, supporting resilience through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Commodity-price and revenue volatility
Revenue and cash generation remain sensitive to commodity price swings. A ~5% TTM revenue decline and an 11% FCF drop year‑over‑year highlight variability. Moderate FCF conversion (~45%) constrains predictability of internal funding and increases dependence on prudent capital discipline.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, sizable free cash flow ($1.7B reported) provides durable funding for debt reduction, buybacks, dividends, and selective reinvestment. Consistent cash conversion underpins financial flexibility and long-term capital allocation, supporting resilience through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Expand Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across countries and regions to show where Expand Energy is strongest and where it is most exposed to local economic, regulatory, or currency risks. Highlights concentration risk, identifies markets with the most growth potential, and helps assess how geopolitical or policy changes could impact future sales.
Breaks down revenue across countries and regions to show where Expand Energy is strongest and where it is most exposed to local economic, regulatory, or currency risks. Highlights concentration risk, identifies markets with the most growth potential, and helps assess how geopolitical or policy changes could impact future sales.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExpand Energy (EXE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.40B
Dividend Yield3.39%
Average Volume (3M)4.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.1
Beta (1Y)0.26
Revenue Growth42.49%
EPS Growth2605.14%
CountryUS
Employees1,600
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.68
Shares Outstanding231,503,780
10 Day Avg. Volume3,834,227
30 Day Avg. Volume4,000,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio14.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$124.79Price Target Upside36.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)9.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.63B
Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Expand Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture: sizable free cash flow ($1.7B), meaningful debt reduction ($1.3B), solid shareholder returns (~$290M), successful monetization of volatility (~$90M), and early commercial progress into LNG (1.15 Mtpa SPA with Delfin). Operational reliability (98% Appalachia uptime) and a favorable Haynesville position (72% lowest-breakeven inventory; ability to serve ~90% of expected U.S. demand growth) underpin confidence. Challenges include short-term Gulf Coast storm impacts shifting CapEx, spot gas prices below breakeven requiring continued hedging, early-stage uncertainty in Western Haynesville, potential service/supply constraints on the Gulf Coast, and multi-year timelines for some LNG/industrial FIDs. Overall, highlights and quantitative achievements materially outweigh the lowlights, supporting a positive outlook while acknowledging execution and market risks.Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow in Q1 (inclusive of working capital inflows), providing substantial liquidity to pursue debt reduction, shareholder returns, and commercial initiatives.
Negative Updates
Gulf Coast Storm Impact & CapEx Shift
Gulf Coast assets were impacted by Winter Storm Fern, resulting in some CapEx being shifted from Q1 into Q2 and temporarily affecting operational timing; Q2 CapEx guidance is higher as a result.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow in Q1 (inclusive of working capital inflows), providing substantial liquidity to pursue debt reduction, shareholder returns, and commercial initiatives.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Expand left full‑year production and capital guidance unchanged and expects to deliver roughly 7.5 Bcf/d with full‑year CapEx of $2.85 billion (Q2 is the CapEx peak after some Q1 timing shifts); in Q1 it generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow (inclusive of working capital), used cash to reduce gross debt by $1.3 billion (meeting its ≥$1.0 billion deleveraging goal) and returned over $290 million to shareholders via base dividends and buybacks, while adding ~0.5 Bcfd of term sales/firm transportation, monetizing nearly $90 million of incremental value in the quarter, and signing a Delfin LNG offtake SPA for 1.15 million tpy; management targets about $0.20 of margin improvement (≈$500 million of repeatable incremental free cash flow per year), says the company can serve nearly 90% of expected U.S. demand growth, expects Northeast demand to grow ~4–6 Bcf/d, notes Haynesville contains ~72% of the basin’s lowest‑breakeven inventory and that corporate breakeven is “well below $3/MMBtu” while planning on a mid‑cycle price of ~$3.50–$4/MMBtu; Appalachia delivered ~98% uptime through Winter Storm Fern.Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.37B | 11.65B | 4.22B | 7.78B | 11.44B | 7.30B |
| Gross Profit | 8.44B | 5.42B | 1.14B | 5.04B | 8.16B | 2.42B |
| EBITDA | 6.63B | 5.50B | 1.02B | 4.76B | 5.56B | 7.30B |
| Net Income | 2.78B | 1.82B | -714.00M | 2.42B | 4.94B | 6.33B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 28.03B | 28.29B | 27.89B | 14.38B | 15.47B | 11.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.37B | 960.00M | 317.00M | 1.08B | 130.00M | 905.00M |
| Total Debt | 3.73B | 5.06B | 5.83B | 2.13B | 3.21B | 2.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.62B | 9.71B | 10.33B | 3.65B | 6.34B | 5.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.41B | 18.58B | 17.57B | 10.73B | 9.12B | 5.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.54B | 1.84B | 8.00M | 551.00M | 2.30B | 1.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.64B | 4.58B | 1.56B | 2.38B | 4.13B | 1.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.96B | -2.76B | -1.90B | 473.00M | -3.40B | -916.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.73B | -1.51B | -419.00M | -1.89B | -1.45B | -237.00M |
Expand Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $21.40B | 8.05 | 14.70% | 3.49% | 42.49% | 2605.14% | |
77 Outperform | $27.19B | 55.12 | 35.52% | 0.46% | 15.30% | 9.42% | |
73 Outperform | $32.97B | 11.71 | 11.71% | 1.23% | 30.17% | 131.21% | |
73 Outperform | $43.69B | 16.08 | 7.67% | 4.96% | -7.02% | -23.68% | |
71 Outperform | $50.95B | 12.50 | 14.78% | 2.31% | 1.96% | -18.06% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
EXE
Expand Energy
94.03
-4.05
-4.13%
DVN
Devon Energy
45.13
14.00
44.97%
EQT
EQT
53.29
2.02
3.94%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
23.46
7.45
46.52%
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
402.58
87.21
27.65%
Expand Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Expand Energy Announces Major Twin Eagle Acquisition Agreement
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 24, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation entered into a Merger Agreement to acquire Twin Eagle N.A., LLC, an independent asset-backed natural gas marketing and optimization business, through a merger of its subsidiary Eikon AW Holdings, LLC wit...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Expand Energy Posts Strong Q2 Results, Boosts Buybacks
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
Expand Energy reported its second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, 2026, highlighting net income of $522 million, adjusted EBITDAX of $1.18 billion and net production of about 7.48 Bcfe per day, 92% of which was natural gas. The company reduced to...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Expand Energy to Acquire Twin Eagle for Growth
Positive
Jul 27, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation announced a definitive agreement to acquire Twin Eagle Holdings N.A., LLC, a private asset-backed natural gas marketing and optimization business, for $1.25 billion from Five Point Infrastructure. The de...
Executive/Board Changes
Expand Energy CFO Assumes Interim Principal Accounting Role
Neutral
Jun 26, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation’s Vice President – Accounting Controller, Gregory M. Larson, informed the company of his intention to resign, with the move stated as unrelated to any disagreement over operations, policies ...
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Expand Energy Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on June 4, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation reported that investors elected all nine board nominees to serve until the next annual meeting or until successors are chosen. The voting results showed bro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.