Expand Energy (EXE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $25.88B
• Dividend Yield: 2.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.78M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 64.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: 39.87%
• EPS Growth: -167.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,500
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 54
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 2.02
• Shares Outstanding: 237,979,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,582,861
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,781,095
• PEG Ratio: -0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.57
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.47
• 1Y Price Target: $129.43
• Price Target Upside: 19.03% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $109.00 ▲(0.24%Upside)

Expand Energy's stock score reflects significant financial challenges, with negative profitability and concerning valuation metrics. However, the company's positive earnings call and strategic initiatives provide some optimism for future performance.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

The company neared its $500m debt retirement goal by paying down $440mm of debt in the quarter, setting up for imminent returns of capital to shareholders.

Earnings

Reported adj EBITDA of $1.395B above consensus of $1.3B and Benchmark’s $1.3B estimate.

Financial Performance

EXE reported positive 1Q25 results exceeding expectations across all key metrics, supported by a lower overall operating cost structure, stronger pricing realizations and lower capex relative to expectations.

Negative Factors

Market Valuation

EXE trades at a 2025 and 2026 FCF yield of 6.3% and 8.3%, respectively, below its peers’ average of 7.8% and 10.3%.

Shareholder Returns

EXE focused solely on debt reduction and did not execute buybacks this quarter, which may come as a disappointment among some investors, especially given the greater than anticipated free cash flow generation in 1Q25.

Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Expand Energy (EXE) is a leading provider in the renewable energy sector, specializing in wind and solar power generation. The company focuses on developing, constructing, and operating large-scale renewable energy projects across various regions. With a commitment to sustainability and innovation, EXE aims to supply clean energy solutions to both commercial and residential customers, contributing to the reduction of carbon emissions and supporting global efforts towards a greener future.

How the Company Makes Money

EXE makes money primarily through the sale of electricity generated from its renewable energy projects. The company enters into long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utilities, governments, and large corporations, ensuring a stable and predictable revenue stream. Additionally, EXE benefits from government incentives and subsidies aimed at promoting clean energy, which enhance their financial returns. The company also explores opportunities in energy trading and grid services, leveraging its expertise to optimize energy distribution and maximize profits. Strategic partnerships with technology companies and financial institutions further bolster their revenue by enabling expansion into new markets and enhancing project financing capabilities.

Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Expand Energy faces significant challenges in revenue and profitability, with a sharp revenue decline and negative profit margins. However, stable leverage and strong cash flow management provide some financial resilience.

Income Statement

Expand Energy has experienced significant volatility in its income statement. The latest annual report shows a sharp decline in total revenue by approximately 45.7% from the previous year. The gross profit margin has dropped to 24.7% from 62.7%, while the net profit margin is negative, indicating substantial losses. The company also reported a negative EBIT margin, further demonstrating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high level of leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, which is relatively stable compared to industry norms. However, return on equity has sharply turned negative due to significant net losses, indicating inefficiencies in utilizing shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 62.9%, reflecting a strong equity base relative to assets.

Cash Flow

Expand Energy exhibits resilience in cash flow generation. Despite negative net income, the operating cash flow remains robust, with favorable operating cash flow to net income ratio suggesting effective cash management. Free cash flow is positive, albeit with low growth, indicating potential for reinvestment and debt servicing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.36B	4.22B	7.78B	11.44B	7.30B	5.21B
Gross Profit	1.27B	1.04B	4.87B	8.16B	2.42B	620.00M
EBITDA	1.01B	1.01B	4.75B	5.56B	7.30B	-8.20B
Net Income	-989.00M	-714.00M	2.42B	4.94B	6.33B	-9.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	27.93B	27.89B	14.38B	15.47B	11.01B	6.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	349.00M	317.00M	1.08B	130.00M	905.00M	279.00M
Total Debt	0.00	5.75B	2.11B	3.18B	2.31B	1.95B
Total Liabilities	10.74B	10.33B	3.65B	6.34B	5.34B	11.93B
Stockholders Equity	17.19B	17.57B	10.73B	9.12B	5.67B	-5.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	406.00M	8.00M	551.00M	2.30B	1.05B	22.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.10B	1.56B	2.38B	4.13B	1.79B	1.16B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.04B	-1.90B	473.00M	-3.40B	-916.00M	-992.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-895.00M	-419.00M	-1.89B	-1.45B	-237.00M	101.00M

Expand Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 108.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 108.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 116.65, below the 50-day MA of 113.44, and above the 200-day MA of 100.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXE.

Expand Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FANG	76 Outperform	$41.17B	8.62	14.26%	2.82%	47.89%	-7.87%
CTRA	76 Outperform	$19.25B	14.72	9.40%	3.52%	10.33%	-0.13%
DVN	75 Outperform	$21.34B	7.56	20.88%	2.87%	12.06%	-16.37%
OXY	75 Outperform	$43.11B	17.73	9.43%	2.19%	1.35%	-33.30%
WDS	75 Outperform	$29.81B	8.37	10.23%	6.72%	-0.93%	115.30%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$15.14B	9.95	6.38%	5.21%	4.16%	-67.19%
EXE	50 Neutral	$25.88B	64.20	-7.10%	2.08%	39.87%	-167.10%

Expand Energy Corporate Events

Expand Energy Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting on June 5

On June 5, 2025, Expand Energy Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. Shareholders elected 11 directors to the board, approved the executive compensation for 2024, and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for 2025. These decisions are expected to influence the company’s strategic direction and financial transparency, impacting stakeholders’ confidence and the company’s market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (EXE) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Expand Energy stock, see the EXE Stock Forecast page.

Expand Energy Joins S&P 500 and Upgraded by Moody’s

On April 29, 2025, Expand Energy Corporation reported its financial and operating results for the first quarter of 2025, with a net cash flow from operating activities of $1,096 million and a net loss of $249 million. The company achieved an adjusted net income of $487 million and produced approximately 6.79 Bcfe/d, primarily natural gas. Notably, Expand Energy was added to the S&P 500 and upgraded to an Investment Grade credit rating by Moody’s. The company plans to pay a quarterly dividend and aims to capture $400 million in synergies by the end of 2025, with a total target of $500 million by 2026. Expand Energy’s strategic initiatives include operating 12 rigs and investing $2.7 billion in 2025 to increase production capacity, positioning itself to grow production in 2026 if market conditions are favorable.