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Expand Energy (EXE)
NASDAQ:EXE
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Expand Energy
(NASDAQ:EXE)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$110.00
â–²(0.31% Upside)
Expand Energy's strong earnings call and technical indicators are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's financial performance shows a positive recovery, but historical volatility and a high P/E ratio suggest caution. The stock's upward trend and strategic improvements position it well, though market volatility remains a concern.
Positive Factors
Operational Efficiency
Sustained reductions in well costs and a >40% improvement in rig productivity are structural advantages. Lower unit costs and higher per‑well output improve long‑run margins, raise capital efficiency, and create a durable competitive edge across commodity cycles.
Balance Sheet Deleveraging
Large debt paydown materially improves financial flexibility and reduces interest burden, enabling resilient operations during downturns. A stronger balance sheet supports continued investment, dividend capacity, and opportunistic M&A without jeopardizing liquidity.
Cash Generation & Revenue Growth
Robust operating cash conversion and double‑digit free cash flow growth indicate sustainable internal funding for capex, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Consistent revenue recovery supports long‑term free cash flow visibility and strategic reinvestment capacity.
Negative Factors
Low Return on Equity
A sub‑5% ROE suggests the company currently delivers limited returns on invested capital. Persistently low ROE can constrain shareholder value creation, signal inefficient capital allocation, and pressure management to pursue lower‑quality growth to lift reported returns.
Historical Margin & Revenue Volatility
Historical swings and prior large losses highlight structural exposure to commodity cycles and operational disruptions. Such volatility complicates long‑term planning, capital allocation, and makes cash flows and margin sustainability more uncertain across multiyear horizons.
Commodity Market & Regional Production Risk
Reliance on regional gas markets exposes production to seasonal demand and price softness, triggering curtailments. Structural regional demand variability and broader gas market volatility can reduce capacity utilization and long‑term revenue predictability for E&P operators.
Expand Energy (EXE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.12B
Dividend Yield2.87%
Average Volume (3M)2.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.2
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth246.16%
EPS Growth82.62%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.97
Shares Outstanding238,169,700
10 Day Avg. Volume3,528,142
30 Day Avg. Volume2,962,611
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)3.70
P/FCF Ratio1.95K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$134.71Price Target Upside22.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)8.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.35B
Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExpand Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. It engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from underground reservoirs. The company holds interests in natural gas resource plays in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania and the Haynesville/Bossier Shales in northwestern Louisiana. As of December 31, 2023, the company owns a portfolio of onshore U.S. unconventional natural gas assets, including interests in approximately 5,000 natural gas wells. The company was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation and changed its name to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. Expand Energy Corporation was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyExpand Energy generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its energy storage systems and solar power solutions to residential and commercial clients. The company also offers installation services and ongoing maintenance contracts, which provide a steady income. Additionally, Expand Energy has established partnerships with utility companies and government agencies to participate in incentive programs that promote renewable energy adoption, further enhancing its revenue potential. The integration of energy management software into its product offerings allows the company to charge subscription fees for clients seeking advanced analytics and optimization tools, creating a recurring revenue model. Overall, the combination of product sales, service contracts, and strategic partnerships contributes significantly to Expand Energy's earnings.
Expand Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant efficiency improvements, debt reduction, and strategic market expansions, indicating strong operational and financial performance. However, market volatility and curtailments in the Northeast Appalachia region presented challenges.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Efficiency Gains in Haynesville
The company has reduced well costs by greater than 25% and year-to-date costs are 30% lower than peers. They can now deliver with 7 rigs the same production it took 13 rigs to deliver in 2023.
Debt Reduction and Shareholder Returns
Expand Energy eliminated $1.2 billion in gross debt and returned nearly $850 million to shareholders.
Increased Production and Cost Efficiency
The company expects to spend $150 million less to deliver 50 million cubic feet per day more of production in 2025 compared to the beginning of the year guidance.
Strategic Agreements and Market Expansion
Announced a supply agreement with Lake Charles Methanol, expected to commence operations in 2030, providing a premium price to NYMEX.
Breakeven Improvement
The Haynesville breakeven is now less than $2.75, a significant improvement from earlier in the year.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility
The gas market has been volatile, with soft market conditions in the summer affecting production decisions.
Curtailed Production in Northeast Appalachia
Due to seasonal demand weakness, there were curtailments in the Northeast Appalachia region, impacting production numbers.
Company Guidance
During the Expand Energy 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Call, the company provided several key metrics that highlight their operational efficiency and strategic growth plans. Notably, Expand Energy has managed to reduce well costs by over 25% and currently operates with 7 rigs to achieve the same production levels that previously required 13 rigs in 2023. This has resulted in their year-to-date costs being 30% lower than peers, with average well productivity 40% greater than the basin average. Their breakeven costs across the basin are now less than $2.75. The company has also eliminated $1.2 billion in gross debt and returned nearly $850 million to shareholders since the close of the merger. Looking ahead, Expand Energy expects to spend $150 million less to deliver 50 million cubic feet per day more production in 2025 compared to their initial guidance, and they are prepared to deliver 7.5 Bcf per day of production in 2026 for approximately the same CapEx as in 2025. Additionally, the company highlighted a significant supply agreement with Lake Charles Methanol, demonstrating their strategic market positioning and ability to secure premium prices.Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Expand Energy demonstrates a recovery trajectory with improved revenue and profitability in the TTM period. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage, but the modest return on equity suggests potential for enhanced shareholder returns. Cash flow generation is strong, though historical volatility poses a risk. Overall, the company is on a positive path but must manage risks associated with past financial fluctuations.Income Statement
Expand Energy's income statement shows a strong recovery with a TTM revenue growth rate of 27.21% and improved profitability metrics. The gross profit margin of 47.78% and net profit margin of 7.99% indicate solid operational efficiency. However, past volatility in revenue and margins, particularly the significant losses in 2020, highlight potential risks.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28 in the TTM period, indicating prudent leverage management. The equity ratio of 65.75% suggests a strong equity base. However, the return on equity of 4.90% in the TTM period is relatively modest, suggesting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.45, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow growth rate of 26.29% in the TTM period is positive, but historical fluctuations in free cash flow highlight potential volatility in cash flow management.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.85B | 4.22B | 7.78B | 11.44B | 7.30B | 5.21B |
| Gross Profit | 5.18B | 1.14B | 5.04B | 8.16B | 2.42B | 620.00M |
| EBITDA | 4.28B | 1.02B | 4.76B | 5.56B | 7.30B | -8.20B |
| Net Income | 867.00M | -714.00M | 2.42B | 4.94B | 6.33B | -9.73B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.61B | 27.89B | 14.38B | 15.47B | 11.01B | 6.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 613.00M | 317.00M | 1.08B | 130.00M | 905.00M | 298.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.07B | 5.83B | 2.13B | 3.21B | 2.32B | 1.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.46B | 10.33B | 3.65B | 6.34B | 5.34B | 11.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.15B | 17.57B | 10.73B | 9.12B | 5.67B | -5.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.47B | 8.00M | 551.00M | 2.30B | 1.05B | 22.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.00B | 1.56B | 2.38B | 4.13B | 1.79B | 1.16B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.89B | -1.90B | 473.00M | -3.40B | -916.00M | -992.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.54B | -419.00M | -1.89B | -1.45B | -237.00M | 101.00M |
Expand Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
109.66
Price Trends
111.44
Negative
107.81
Positive
106.41
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
53.84
Neutral
69.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 109.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.28, below the 50-day MA of 111.44, and above the 200-day MA of 106.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EXE.
Expand Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $24.99B | 9.36 | 18.35% | 2.64% | 11.14% | -21.32% | |
77 Outperform | $24.46B | 51.41 | 39.37% | 0.72% | 12.48% | 6.24% | |
76 Outperform | $34.92B | 19.09 | 8.19% | 1.17% | 64.84% | 219.47% | |
74 Outperform | $33.20B | 11.21 | 8.33% | 6.85% | 15.31% | 58.83% | |
73 Outperform | $21.16B | 12.82 | 11.86% | 3.39% | 26.13% | 31.42% | |
71 Outperform | $26.12B | 31.16 | 6.12% | 2.87% | 246.16% | 82.62% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
EXE
Expand Energy
109.90
10.32
10.36%
CTRA
Coterra Energy
28.06
0.63
2.31%
DVN
Devon Energy
39.94
5.84
17.13%
EQT
EQT
56.33
5.29
10.36%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
17.67
3.07
21.04%
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
353.21
-75.62
-17.63%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.