Expand Energy (EXE)
NASDAQ:EXE
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Expand Energy
(NASDAQ:EXE)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$114.00
â–²(11.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/07/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial positioning in 2025 (profitability, stronger cash generation, and a much stronger balance sheet) and supportive valuation (moderate P/E with a solid dividend). This is tempered by weak technical positioning versus key moving averages and execution/transition risks highlighted on the earnings call (commercial progress, leadership change, and the 2029 bond priority).
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
The elimination of reported gross debt and a larger equity base materially improves financial flexibility and lowers refinancing risk. This durable capital-structure shift supports funding of disciplined CapEx, opportunistic buybacks/dividends and resilience through commodity-driven downturns over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Earnings & Cash Flow Volatility
The company's results have swung materially across cycles, reducing predictability of earnings and cash flow. This cyclicality complicates multi-year planning, raises the probability of funding stress in lower-price environments, and weakens the reliability of returns and payout sustainability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
The elimination of reported gross debt and a larger equity base materially improves financial flexibility and lowers refinancing risk. This durable capital-structure shift supports funding of disciplined CapEx, opportunistic buybacks/dividends and resilience through commodity-driven downturns over the next several years.
Read all positive factors
Expand Energy (EXE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.89B
Dividend Yield2.87%
Average Volume (3M)4.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.4
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth246.16%
EPS Growth82.62%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.00
Shares Outstanding240,398,250
10 Day Avg. Volume4,756,537
30 Day Avg. Volume4,187,582
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio14.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$134.58Price Target Upside32.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)9.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.23B
Expand Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. It engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from undergrou...
How the Company Makes Money
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Expand Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Expand Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution (notably a 15% reduction in Haynesville breakevens), meaningful hedging gains ($200M), storage growth (to ~5 Bcf), and a clear strategic pivot to capture downstream margin (targeting $0.20/Mcf uplift ≈ $500M EBITDA). Management also reiterated disciplined capital allocation with continued debt reduction and a flexible production/CapEx plan (~7.5 Bcf/d; ~$2.85B CapEx). Major risks discussed include weather-related downtime, lagging commercial capture of new demand, leadership transition uncertainty, a competitive storage/M&A environment, and a large 2029 bond maturity that prioritizes balance‑sheet repair. On balance, the positive operational and financial achievements and a concrete plan to pursue premium markets outweigh the transitional and market challenges described.Positive Updates
Haynesville Breakeven Reduction & Inventory Improvement
Company achieved a 15% reduction in Haynesville breakevens over the year and added five years of inventory below $3.50 in one year, supporting lower maintenance capital and improved downside protection.
Negative Updates
Weather-Related Disruptions (Winter Storm FERN)
Haynesville experienced ice accumulation (over an inch) that caused power and water-handling issues and led to production impacts and downtime in late January; Appalachia had curtailments which later returned, contributing to quarterly variability.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Haynesville Breakeven Reduction & Inventory Improvement
Company achieved a 15% reduction in Haynesville breakevens over the year and added five years of inventory below $3.50 in one year, supporting lower maintenance capital and improved downside protection.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to roughly 7.5 Bcf/d of average production in 2026 (range ~7.25–7.75 Bcf/d) funded by roughly $2.85 billion of 2026 CapEx, with the program remaining efficient up to ~7.75 Bcf/d; management reiterated a mid‑cycle price assumption of $3.50–$4.00 and highlighted a 15% reduction in Haynesville breakevens and improved well productivity (≈20% of 2025 TILs >1.0 Bcf/1,000 ft, targeting >30% in 2026). They said maintenance capital has come down materially versus a year ago (about $225M lower to deliver 7.5 Bcf/d), D&C costs should modestly reduce, storage has grown to ~5 Bcf (added ~3.5 Bcf last quarter), hedges generated ~$200M of gains in 2025, cash taxes remain minimal in 2026 due to OBDD (full cash taxpayer likely closer to 2030), and the company will prioritize continued debt paydown (noting a large 2029 bond) while still considering opportunistic buybacks and disciplined commercial investments aimed at a $0.20/Mcf realizations uplift (~$500M EBITDA opportunity).Expand Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.65B | 4.22B | 7.78B | 11.44B | 7.30B |
| Gross Profit | 5.42B | 1.14B | 5.04B | 8.16B | 2.42B |
| EBITDA | 5.03B | 1.02B | 4.76B | 5.56B | 7.30B |
| Net Income | 1.82B | -714.00M | 2.42B | 4.94B | 6.33B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 28.29B | 27.89B | 14.38B | 15.47B | 11.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 960.00M | 317.00M | 1.08B | 130.00M | 905.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.06B | 5.83B | 2.13B | 3.21B | 2.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.71B | 10.33B | 3.65B | 6.34B | 5.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.58B | 17.57B | 10.73B | 9.12B | 5.67B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.84B | 8.00M | 551.00M | 2.30B | 1.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.58B | 1.56B | 2.38B | 4.13B | 1.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.76B | -1.90B | 473.00M | -3.40B | -916.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.51B | -419.00M | -1.89B | -1.45B | -237.00M |
Expand Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
101.93
Price Trends
106.76
Negative
109.11
Negative
105.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.38
Positive
39.22
Neutral
4.13
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 101.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.77, below the 50-day MA of 106.76, and below the 200-day MA of 105.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.13 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXE.
Expand Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $30.95B | 41.14 | 36.18% | 0.72% | 12.48% | 6.24% | |
77 Outperform | $26.32B | 11.67 | 11.77% | 3.39% | 26.13% | 31.42% | |
77 Outperform | $37.71B | 16.42 | 9.16% | 1.17% | 64.84% | 219.47% | |
75 Outperform | $30.78B | 10.12 | 17.47% | 2.64% | 11.14% | -21.32% | |
73 Outperform | $45.78B | 10.87 | 7.67% | 6.85% | 15.31% | 58.83% | |
69 Neutral | $24.89B | 14.40 | 10.13% | 2.87% | 246.16% | 82.62% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
EXE
Expand Energy
101.93
4.94
5.09%
CTRA
Coterra Energy
34.91
11.12
46.77%
DVN
Devon Energy
49.95
23.83
91.21%
EQT
EQT
60.69
13.76
29.31%
WDS
Woodside Energy Group
24.68
13.80
126.92%
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
449.79
79.58
21.50%
Expand Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Expand Energy Names Marcel Teunissen New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Expand Energy Corporation appointed Marcel Teunissen as executive vice president and chief financial officer, replacing interim CFO Brittany Raiford, who will continue as vice president of treasury and investor relations. Teuniss...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Expand Energy Posts Strong Q4 Results, Boosts 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Expand Energy reported a more than 150% year‑over‑year increase in fourth‑quarter 2025 operating cash flow to $956 million, net income of $553 million and adjusted EBITDAX of $1.43 billion, driven by 15% hig...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Expand Energy Relocates Headquarters to Houston Amid Transition
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
Expand Energy Corporation, North America’s largest natural gas producer, focuses on leveraging its scale, asset base and financial strength to connect natural gas supply with growing domestic and global demand. The company emphasizes deliver...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.