Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)
NYSE:TPL
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Texas Pacific Land
(NYSE:TPL)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$428.00
▼(-50.40% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
Strong overall score driven by exceptional financial strength (high margins, minimal leverage, strong cash generation) and a positive earnings update (record results and operational progress). The score is held back by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a stretched valuation (high P/E with low yield).
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Extremely low leverage and a strong equity base provide durable financial flexibility and downside protection. This balance-sheet strength supports opportunistic capital allocation, funds multi-year projects without stressing liquidity, and reduces refinancing risk through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Commodity exposure & unhedged position
Being fully unhedged means revenue and FCF move directly with oil and gas realizations and operator activity. That concentration into commodity cycles amplifies quarter-to-quarter volatility and complicates multi-month planning for capex, dividends, and scaling new businesses.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Extremely low leverage and a strong equity base provide durable financial flexibility and downside protection. This balance-sheet strength supports opportunistic capital allocation, funds multi-year projects without stressing liquidity, and reduces refinancing risk through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$27.73B
Dividend Yield0.72%
Average Volume (3M)375.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)57.3
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth15.30%
EPS Growth9.42%
CountryUS
Employees111
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.30
Shares Outstanding68,974,430
10 Day Avg. Volume366,090
30 Day Avg. Volume375,348
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio6.83
Price to Book (P/B)13.57
Price to Sales (P/S)24.81
P/FCF Ratio40.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue32.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit33.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda39.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$639.00Price Target Upside-25.95% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)9.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.00B
Texas Pacific Land Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The company's Land and Resource Management segment manages approximately 880,000 acres of land. This segment also holds own a...
How the Company Makes Money
TPL primarily makes money from (1) oil and gas royalties and (2) water-related services tied to energy activity on and around its land position, with additional income from surface/land uses.
1) Oil and gas royalties (core revenue stream): TPL ow...
Texas Pacific Land Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized several clear positives: record revenue, record free cash flow, strong YoY production growth (~19%), an increasing well inventory (LOS +6% sequential, +11% normalized), strategic progress on NextGen (a $43M land sale and water agreements), and near-term progress on a 10,000 bpd desal test facility. Offsetting items include muted operator activity despite higher oil prices, quarter-to-quarter lumpiness in SLEM and Water segments (accrual noise and project timing), uncertainty around commercializing desal at scale (capital intensity and partner needs), and inherent earnings sensitivity from an unhedged commodity position. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Financials
Consolidated revenue of approximately $237 million — a quarterly all-time high — up 12% sequentially and 21% year-over-year. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $181 million, up 2% sequentially and 7% year-over-year. Free cash flow was $136 million, up 15% sequentially and 8% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Operator Activity Still Muted Despite Oil Price Spike
Management observed only a marginal uptick in operator activity in the Permian despite recent crude price spikes, citing industry uncertainty around the duration of the supply shock. This could delay a broader rig and frac spread ramp and near-term volume growth.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Financials
Consolidated revenue of approximately $237 million — a quarterly all-time high — up 12% sequentially and 21% year-over-year. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $181 million, up 2% sequentially and 7% year-over-year. Free cash flow was $136 million, up 15% sequentially and 8% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management did not give formal forward guidance but provided a number of actionable metrics and sensitivities: Q1 FY2026 produced record consolidated revenue of about $237M (up 12% sequential, 21% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $181M (+2% seq, +7% YoY) and free cash flow of $136M (+15% seq, +8% YoY); oil & gas royalties averaged ~37,001 BOE/day (flat sequential, ~+19% YoY) and using 2025 volumes (~5.0M bbls of oil annually) management said every $10/bbl change in oil realizations equates to roughly $50M of annual revenue (2025 oil realization ≈ $65/bbl), while ~3.8M bbls of NGLs implies ~ $17M per $5/bbl change; well inventory at quarter end was 20.7 net line‑of‑sight wells (5.8 net permitted, 9.6 net DUCs, 5.2 net completed‑not‑producing), a 6% sequential increase (≈11% on lateral‑normalized basis) with new laterals >13,000 ft; water volumes were the second‑highest in company history, Phase 2B desalination (10,000 bpd) is nearly complete (refrigeration inspection this month; inlet flows expected in weeks) as a test for scaling to ~100,000 bpd (management has discussed ~$100M capex per 100k bpd) and colocation economics, the company remains fully unhedged with a strong net cash position, and management closed a $43M land sale structured over 20 years while pursuing multi‑gigawatt power/data‑center opportunities.Texas Pacific Land Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
96
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 839.02M | 798.19M | 705.82M | 631.60M | 667.42M | 450.96M |
| Gross Profit | 819.72M | 798.19M | 634.54M | 583.27M | 634.53M | 421.47M |
| EBITDA | 692.04M | 655.46M | 564.30M | 500.81M | 577.68M | 378.65M |
| Net Income | 503.63M | 481.38M | 453.96M | 405.64M | 446.36M | 269.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.75B | 1.62B | 1.25B | 1.16B | 877.43M | 764.06M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 247.57M | 144.81M | 369.83M | 725.17M | 510.83M | 428.24M |
| Total Debt | 15.84M | 32.35M | 453.00K | 1.17M | 1.96M | 1.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 195.51M | 164.37M | 115.56M | 113.20M | 104.54M | 112.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.56B | 1.46B | 1.13B | 1.04B | 772.89M | 651.71M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 493.28M | 486.38M | 460.98M | 403.26M | 427.94M | 249.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 551.19M | 545.91M | 490.67M | 418.29M | 447.15M | 265.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -591.72M | -595.85M | -471.75M | -60.31M | -21.40M | -15.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -175.10M | -176.04M | -378.09M | -144.61M | -336.81M | -104.95M |
Texas Pacific Land Technical Analysis
Neutral
862.91
Price Trends
444.99
Negative
422.88
Negative
363.34
Positive
Market Momentum
-12.87
Negative
43.23
Neutral
72.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 862.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 410.37, above the 50-day MA of 444.99, and above the 200-day MA of 363.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -12.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TPL.
Texas Pacific Land Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $27.73B | 57.25 | 35.52% | 0.72% | 15.30% | 9.42% | |
72 Outperform | $11.39B | 6.12 | 12.71% | ― | 24.26% | 323.40% | |
69 Neutral | $54.32B | 65.10 | 14.78% | 2.64% | 1.96% | -18.06% | |
69 Neutral | $17.11B | 99.25 | 6.32% | 4.27% | -1.12% | -48.40% | |
68 Neutral | $16.51B | ― | 7.11% | 3.16% | -0.59% | 32.83% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
402.03
-19.51
-4.63%
DVN
Devon Energy
47.22
16.85
55.47%
OVV
Ovintiv
58.74
23.86
68.38%
AR
Antero Resources
36.75
-2.74
-6.94%
PR
Permian Resources
20.44
8.23
67.36%
Texas Pacific Land Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Texas Pacific Land Highlights Water and Surface Revenue Strategy
Positive
May 18, 2026
Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced it will use a detailed investor presentation at its Investor Day in Midland, Texas, on May 18, 2026, highlighting its water-focused operations and strategic use of its surface estate. The event agenda inclu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Texas Pacific Land Announces Board Agreement and Strong Quarter
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 5 and May 6, 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corporation strengthened its governance and investor outreach while reporting robust first-quarter 2026 results. The company entered a board representative agreement with Horizon Kinetics, its largest s...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Texas Pacific Land Mourns Board Member Murray Stahl
Negative
Apr 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced that Murray Stahl, a member of its Board of Directors and the CEO, Chairman and Chief Investment Strategist of its largest shareholder, Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation, had passed awa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.