Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)
NYSE:TPL
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Texas Pacific Land
(NYSE:TPL)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$453.00
▼(-47.50% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/11/26
TPL scores well primarily on exceptional financial strength (high margins, minimal leverage, strong cash generation) and a positive earnings call highlighting record results and strong liquidity. These positives are meaningfully tempered by weak technical momentum and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E and low yield).
Positive Factors
High Profitability / Margins
Exceptional margins indicate durable cash-generating economics: high net and EBITDA margins provide significant cushion through commodity cycles, support reinvestment and shareholder distributions, and reflect efficient royalty and water operations that sustain long-term free cash flow.
Negative Factors
Commodity & Operator Activity Sensitivity
TPL's royalty and water revenues closely track Permian production and commodity prices; a sustained drop in oil prices or prolonged operator capex cuts can materially reduce royalty receipts and water demand, creating multi-quarter volatility in topline and cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability / Margins
Exceptional margins indicate durable cash-generating economics: high net and EBITDA margins provide significant cushion through commodity cycles, support reinvestment and shareholder distributions, and reflect efficient royalty and water operations that sustain long-term free cash flow.
Read all positive factors
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.26B
Dividend Yield0.72%
Average Volume (3M)490.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.1
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth12.48%
EPS Growth6.24%
CountryUS
Employees111
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.79
Shares Outstanding68,941,550
10 Day Avg. Volume395,833
30 Day Avg. Volume490,118
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio6.83
Price to Book (P/B)13.57
Price to Sales (P/S)24.81
P/FCF Ratio40.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue35.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit35.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda42.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$639.00Price Target Upside-25.95% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)8.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.02B
Texas Pacific Land Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The company's Land and Resource Management segment manages approximately 880,000 acres of land. This segment also holds own a...
How the Company Makes Money
TPL primarily makes money from (1) oil and gas royalties and (2) water-related services tied to energy activity on and around its land position, with additional income from surface/land uses.
1) Oil and gas royalties (core revenue stream): TPL ow...
Texas Pacific Land Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive outlook driven by multiple operational and financial records, strong free cash flow, conservative balance sheet with substantial liquidity, strategic investments into data center infrastructure (Bolt) and meaningful progress on desalination R&D. Key risks include a weaker oil price environment (-15% realized decline YoY), Permian activity contraction (rig count down ~26%) and remaining execution and scaling uncertainties for desalination and large data center projects. On balance, highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Quarterly Operational Records
Q4 set records for oil & gas royalty production, water sales volumes and produced water royalties; water sales exceeded 1 million barrels per day for the first time and grew 36% year-over-year (Q4).
Negative Updates
Lower Realized Oil Prices
Realized oil prices declined year-over-year by 15%, and the broader oil price environment declined from roughly $95/bbl in 2022 to $65/bbl in 2025, partially offsetting results.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Operational Records
Q4 set records for oil & gas royalty production, water sales volumes and produced water royalties; water sales exceeded 1 million barrels per day for the first time and grew 36% year-over-year (Q4).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2026 TPL guided modest capital spending of roughly $65–$75 million (including about $20 million to install co‑location equipment at the Orla desalination site to test waste‑heat capture and data‑center cooling), expects the Orla Phase 2b 10,000 bpd R&D desalination facility to begin taking produced water and ramp volumes in the coming months, and emphasized a strong liquidity position with $145 million cash, zero debt and a $500 million undrawn credit facility; management reiterated the ability to invest opportunistically, pursue self‑funded acquisitions and expand shareholder returns after a strong FY2025 that generated record free cash flow of ~ $498 million (Q4 FCF ~$119M), with Q4 consolidated revenue of ~$212M, adjusted EBITDA of ~$178M (84% margin), prior-year capex of $66M (incl. $6M payables), and a newly declared regular dividend of $0.60 per share (up 12.5% sequentially).Texas Pacific Land Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
97
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 798.19M | 705.82M | 631.60M | 667.42M | 450.96M |
| Gross Profit | 798.19M | 634.54M | 583.27M | 634.53M | 421.47M |
| EBITDA | 655.46M | 564.30M | 500.81M | 577.68M | 378.65M |
| Net Income | 481.38M | 453.96M | 405.64M | 446.36M | 269.98M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.62B | 1.25B | 1.16B | 877.43M | 764.06M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 144.81M | 369.83M | 725.17M | 510.83M | 428.24M |
| Total Debt | 32.35M | 453.00K | 1.17M | 1.96M | 1.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 164.37M | 115.56M | 113.20M | 104.54M | 112.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.46B | 1.13B | 1.04B | 772.89M | 651.71M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 486.38M | 460.98M | 403.26M | 427.94M | 249.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 545.91M | 490.67M | 418.29M | 447.15M | 265.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -595.85M | -471.75M | -60.31M | -21.40M | -15.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -176.04M | -378.09M | -144.61M | -336.81M | -104.95M |
Texas Pacific Land Technical Analysis
Negative
862.91
Price Trends
468.03
Negative
386.83
Positive
350.92
Positive
Market Momentum
-19.12
Positive
35.03
Neutral
15.52
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 862.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 487.85, above the 50-day MA of 468.03, and above the 200-day MA of 350.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -19.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TPL.
Texas Pacific Land Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $25.42B | 11.67 | 11.77% | 3.39% | 26.13% | 31.42% | |
77 Outperform | $17.90B | 10.74 | 9.56% | 4.27% | 7.55% | -34.40% | |
75 Outperform | $29.70B | 10.12 | 17.47% | 2.64% | 11.14% | -21.32% | |
74 Outperform | $11.69B | 16.82 | 8.63% | ― | 17.05% | 1028.81% | |
72 Outperform | $15.89B | 8.12 | 11.86% | 3.16% | -8.07% | -87.88% | |
71 Outperform | $28.26B | 41.14 | 36.18% | 0.72% | 12.48% | 6.24% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
409.97
0.46
0.11%
CTRA
Coterra Energy
33.41
9.08
37.34%
DVN
Devon Energy
47.79
20.27
73.67%
OVV
Ovintiv
56.09
24.20
75.90%
AR
Antero Resources
37.89
4.79
14.47%
PR
Permian Resources
20.66
10.06
94.91%
Texas Pacific Land Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Texas Pacific Land Mourns Board Member Murray Stahl
Negative
Apr 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced that Murray Stahl, a member of its Board of Directors and the CEO, Chairman and Chief Investment Strategist of its largest shareholder, Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation, had passed awa...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingStock Split
Texas Pacific Land Highlights Record Results, Strategic Expansion
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Texas Pacific Land Corporation, a major Permian Basin-focused land and royalty owner, reported record fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 consolidated revenues, net income and free cash flow, driven by surging oil and gas royalty production, strong ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.