Texas Pacific Land (TPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.54B
• Dividend Yield: 0.72%
• Average Volume (3M): 406.36K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 47.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: 12.48%
• EPS Growth: 6.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 111
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.76
• Shares Outstanding: 68,938,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 335,239
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 406,356
• PEG Ratio: 4.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 22.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 36.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 55.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 27.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 31.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 32.54
• 1Y Price Target: $1,050.00
• Price Target Upside: 21.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.19
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.03B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $354.00 ▼(-58.98% Downside)

The score is driven primarily by outstanding financial strength (exceptional margins, strong cash generation, and minimal leverage) and a constructive earnings update with record results and strategic asset expansion. Offsetting factors include mixed technicals due to being below the 200-day average and a demanding valuation (high P/E with low yield).

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnership

The partnership with Bolt Data & Energy to develop data centers on TPL land diversifies revenue streams and leverages land assets, potentially transforming the region into a tech hub.

Revenue Growth

Record revenue and growth in oil, gas, and water segments indicate strong market demand and effective resource management, supporting long-term financial health.

Balance Sheet Strength

A strong balance sheet with minimal debt enhances financial stability and flexibility, enabling strategic investments and weathering industry volatility.

Negative Factors

Commodity Price Challenges

Weak commodity prices can impact revenue from oil and gas royalties, posing a risk to profitability if prices remain low over the long term.

Volatility in Water Sales

Volatility in water sales may affect predictable cash flows and revenue stability, challenging the company's ability to maintain consistent growth in this segment.

High Valuation Concerns

A high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, which could limit stock price appreciation and increase vulnerability to market corrections.

Texas Pacific Land Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The company's Land and Resource Management segment manages approximately 880,000 acres of land. This segment also holds own a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 4,000 additional net royalty acres located in the western part of Texas. In addition, this segment engages in easements and commercial leases activities, such as oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility easements, and subsurface wellbore easements. Further, this segment leases its land for processing, storage, and compression facilities and roads; and is involved in sale of materials, such as caliche. Its Water Services and Operations segment provides full-service water offerings, including water sourcing, produced-water gathering/treatment, infrastructure development, disposal solutions, water tracking, analytics, and well testing services to operators in the Permian Basin. This segment also holds royalties for water sourced from its land. Texas Pacific Land Corporation was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Texas Pacific Land generates revenue through multiple key streams. Primarily, it earns money by leasing its land to oil and gas companies, who pay for the right to explore and extract resources. The company receives lease bonuses, which are upfront payments made by lessees, and ongoing royalties based on the volume of oil and gas produced from its properties. Additionally, TPL earns revenue from surface use agreements, allowing companies to use the land for activities related to energy extraction, such as drilling sites and pipelines. The company's significant land holdings in resource-rich areas, particularly in the Permian Basin, enhance its revenue potential. Furthermore, TPL may engage in partnerships with exploration and production companies, leveraging its land assets to foster profitable arrangements that contribute to its earnings.

Texas Pacific Land Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are exceptionally strong overall: very high profitability (TTM net margin ~62%), strong cash generation with ~90%+ net income to free-cash-flow conversion, and an extremely conservative balance sheet with near-zero leverage. The key risk is volatility in revenue and free-cash-flow growth across years, indicating cyclicality/sensitivity to industry conditions.

Income Statement

TPL shows exceptional profitability with very high gross and net margins across the period, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results remain strong (net margin ~62% with robust operating profitability). Revenue growth has been uneven—declining in 2020 and 2023, then re-accelerating sharply in TTM—so the top-line trajectory is less consistent than the profit profile, but overall earnings power is outstanding.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is extremely conservative, with minimal debt and a very low debt-to-equity level throughout (near-zero leverage in most years). Equity and assets have grown meaningfully over time, and returns on equity are consistently high, indicating strong capital efficiency; the main watch-out is that such high profitability can be cyclical in this industry, but leverage risk is clearly low.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is very strong: operating cash flow is consistently high and comfortably supports obligations, and free cash flow closely tracks net income (roughly ~90%+ conversion), including in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Free cash flow growth has been volatile year-to-year (notably down in 2020 and 2023), but the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a strong rebound and excellent overall cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	772.39M	705.82M	631.60M	667.42M	450.96M	302.55M
Gross Profit	675.39M	634.54M	583.27M	634.53M	421.47M	269.95M
EBITDA	643.62M	564.30M	500.81M	577.68M	378.65M	231.66M
Net Income	476.39M	453.96M	405.64M	446.36M	269.98M	176.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.52B	1.25B	1.16B	877.43M	764.06M	571.63M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	531.81M	369.83M	725.17M	510.83M	428.24M	281.05M
Total Debt	16.51M	453.00K	1.17M	1.96M	1.45M	2.03M
Total Liabilities	156.95M	115.56M	113.20M	104.54M	112.35M	86.45M
Stockholders Equity	1.37B	1.13B	1.04B	772.89M	651.71M	485.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	514.69M	460.98M	403.26M	427.94M	249.62M	201.95M
Operating Cash Flow	558.81M	490.67M	418.29M	447.15M	265.16M	207.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-383.59M	-471.75M	-60.31M	-21.40M	-15.00M	-26.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-177.33M	-378.09M	-144.61M	-336.81M	-104.95M	-201.66M

Texas Pacific Land Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 862.91
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 862.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 298.42, above the 50-day MA of 302.53, and above the 200-day MA of 340.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TPL.

Texas Pacific Land Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DVN	79 Outperform	$23.79B	8.92	18.35%	2.64%	11.14%	-21.32%
TPL	77 Outperform	$22.54B	47.38	39.37%	0.72%	12.48%	6.24%
PR	77 Outperform	$12.18B	13.40	8.58%	4.27%	7.55%	-34.40%
CTRA	73 Outperform	$19.31B	11.70	11.86%	3.39%	26.13%	31.42%
AR	67 Neutral	$9.85B	18.29	7.65%	―	17.05%	1028.81%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
OVV	60 Neutral	$10.22B	44.23	2.26%	3.16%	-8.07%	-87.88%

Texas Pacific Land Corporate Events

Texas Pacific Land Partners with Bolt Data & Energy

On December 17, 2025, Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced a strategic partnership with Bolt Data & Energy, Inc. to develop large-scale data center campuses on TPL-owned land in West Texas. This collaboration, aligned with Bolt’s vision of creating a world-leading data center network, is set to leverage abundant local energy resources while potentially transforming the region into a hub for AI compute infrastructure. As part of the agreement, Bolt raised $150 million, including a $50 million investment from TPL, granting TPL significant equity participation and rights to provide water for future projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPL) stock is a Buy with a $1017.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Pacific Land stock, see the TPL Stock Forecast page.

Texas Pacific Land Announces Forward Stock Split

On November 5, 2025, Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced a three-for-one forward stock split of its common stock, which will become effective on December 22, 2025. This move is expected to increase the number of authorized shares significantly, with trading on a split-adjusted basis commencing on December 23, 2025, potentially impacting the company’s market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPL) stock is a Buy with a $1050.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Pacific Land stock, see the TPL Stock Forecast page.

Texas Pacific Land Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On November 6, 2025, Texas Pacific Land Corporation conducted its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 18,923,012 shares were represented. The meeting included the election of nine board members, approval of executive compensation, ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the accounting firm, and consideration of a proposal to lower the ownership threshold for calling special meetings. The proposal to reduce the ownership threshold was not approved, while other proposals were successfully passed.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPL) stock is a Buy with a $1166.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Pacific Land stock, see the TPL Stock Forecast page.

Texas Pacific Land Reports Record Quarterly Revenues

On November 5, 2025, Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced record quarterly revenues and net income for its Water Services and Operations segment, highlighting strategic acquisitions and operational achievements. The company completed a $500 million revolving credit facility and a significant royalty interest acquisition in the Midland Basin, enhancing its portfolio and positioning for future growth despite broader commodity price challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPL) stock is a Buy with a $1047.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Pacific Land stock, see the TPL Stock Forecast page.

Texas Pacific Land Secures $500M Credit Facility

On October 23, 2025, Texas Pacific Land Corporation entered into a $500 million revolving credit facility agreement with Wells Fargo Bank and other lenders, maturing on October 23, 2029. The credit facility, which remains undrawn, enhances the company’s liquidity and positions it for growth opportunities, supported by strong backing from twelve financial institutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPL) stock is a Buy with a $1046.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Pacific Land stock, see the TPL Stock Forecast page.