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Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)
:TPL
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Texas Pacific Land (TPL) AI Stock Analysis

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TPL

Texas Pacific Land

(NYSE:TPL)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$1,046.00
â–²(9.09% Upside)
Texas Pacific Land's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are significant strengths, contributing to a solid overall score. However, technical analysis indicates bearish trends, and the valuation suggests the stock may be overvalued. These factors moderate the overall score.

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Texas Pacific Land Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTexas Pacific Land (TPL) is one of the largest landowners in the state of Texas, primarily operating in the land and resource management sector. The company is engaged in managing approximately 900,000 acres of land across 19 counties, with its core services focusing on land sales, leases, and royalties from oil and gas production. TPL also offers water sourcing, treatment, and disposal services to support the energy industry in the region.
How the Company Makes MoneyTexas Pacific Land makes money through several key revenue streams. Firstly, it earns significant income from oil and gas royalties by leasing its land to exploration and production companies, who extract these resources. The company benefits from a percentage of the revenues generated from oil and gas sales on its land. Secondly, TPL generates revenue through land sales and leases, including surface leases for various uses like grazing or commercial activities. Additionally, TPL capitalizes on the growing demand for water solutions in the oil and gas sector by providing water sourcing, treatment, and disposal services. These services are critical for hydraulic fracturing and other energy production processes. The company's strategic location in the prolific Permian Basin and partnerships with major energy producers further enhance its earnings potential.

Texas Pacific Land Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -28.52%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a largely positive outlook with record production levels and strong financial metrics. However, there are concerns about commodity price sensitivity and potential declines in Permian activity that could impact future performance. The company's strong financial position and strategic initiatives provide resilience against potential downturns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Oil and Gas Royalty Production
TPL set a quarterly record with oil and gas royalty production averaging approximately 31,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 7% growth sequential quarter-over-quarter and 25% growth year-over-year.
Strong Water Segment Revenue
Water segment revenues totaled $69 million, showing a 3% sequential quarter-over-quarter growth and 11% growth year-over-year, driven by robust volume gains in water sales and produced water royalties.
High Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $169 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 86.4%.
Robust Near-Term Well Inventory
TPL's near-term well inventory reached an all-time high with 24.3 net wells, which is 7% higher sequential quarter-over-quarter and 38% higher year-over-year.
Strong Financial Position
TPL maintains a net cash position with zero debt and $460 million in cash and cash equivalents.
Easement Renewal Payments
TPL anticipates benefiting from easement renewal payments with CPI escalators, expecting renewal payments of approximately $10 million in 2026, ramping up to $35 million per year in subsequent years.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price Sensitivity
TPL's oil and gas royalties are directly exposed to commodity prices, and a sustained oil price below $60 could result in a downturn in activity.
Potential Decline in Permian Activity
Feedback from operators indicates cautious evaluation of activity plans, and a potential decline in Permian activity could impact TPL's revenue streams.
Delayed Desalination Unit Launch
The Phase IIb desalination unit is now expected to come online by the end of the year, indicating a delay in its launch.
Company Guidance
During the Texas Pacific Land Corporation First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported record performance in several key metrics. Oil and gas royalty production averaged approximately 31,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day, marking a 7% sequential increase and a 25% growth year-over-year. Water segment revenues reached $69 million, showing a 3% quarter-over-quarter growth and an 11% increase year-over-year. Consolidated revenues for the quarter were $196 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $169 million and an impressive EBITDA margin of 86.4%. Free cash flow stood at $127 million, reflecting an 11% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, the company highlighted a robust near-term well inventory, with 24.3 net wells, including 5.9 net permitted wells, 12.9 net drilled but uncompleted wells, and 5.4 net completed but not producing wells. Despite potential challenges from fluctuating oil prices, TPL emphasized its strong financial position, with a net cash position, zero debt, and $460 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025.

Texas Pacific Land Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Texas Pacific Land shows strong financial performance with excellent profitability and robust growth. The balance sheet is notably strong with minimal debt and high equity. Strong operational efficiency and cash flow growth further enhance the company's financial health.
Income Statement
87
Very Positive
Texas Pacific Land has shown strong revenue growth from $631.6 million in 2023 to $705.8 million in 2024, a growth rate of 11.8%. The gross profit margin is excellent at 100%, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin is robust at 64.3%, showing strong profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also high at 76.4% and 85.6% respectively, showcasing strong operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
The company's balance sheet is notably strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of practically zero due to minimal debt. Return on equity is impressive at 40.1%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is high at 90.7%, suggesting a stable financial foundation with a low level of liabilities.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
The free cash flow growth rate is substantial at 21.8%, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.08, showing healthy cash flow relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.02, demonstrating efficient conversion of profits into cash.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue705.82M631.60M667.42M450.96M302.55M
Gross Profit634.54M583.27M634.53M421.47M269.95M
EBITDA564.30M500.81M577.68M378.65M231.66M
Net Income453.96M405.64M446.36M269.98M176.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.25B1.16B877.43M764.06M571.63M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments369.83M725.17M510.83M428.24M281.05M
Total Debt453.00K1.17M1.96M1.45M2.82M
Total Liabilities115.56M113.20M104.54M112.35M86.45M
Stockholders Equity1.13B1.04B772.89M651.71M485.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow65.40M378.29M426.27M249.62M185.00M
Operating Cash Flow490.67M418.29M447.15M265.16M207.04M
Investing Cash Flow-471.75M-60.31M-21.40M-15.00M-26.00M
Financing Cash Flow-378.09M-144.61M-336.81M-104.95M-201.66M

Texas Pacific Land Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price958.81
Price Trends
50DMA
1055.61
Negative
100DMA
1182.63
Negative
200DMA
1242.06
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-31.84
Negative
RSI
39.18
Neutral
STOCH
43.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 958.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 984.95, below the 50-day MA of 1055.61, and below the 200-day MA of 1242.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -31.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TPL.

Texas Pacific Land Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$42.56B10.3613.57%3.60%51.78%-27.22%
76
Outperform
$18.56B11.6611.42%3.63%10.33%-0.13%
74
Outperform
$42.40B17.449.43%2.12%1.35%-33.30%
72
Outperform
$20.75B7.2720.60%3.53%12.06%-16.37%
70
Outperform
$22.04B47.9439.52%1.71%10.36%6.37%
70
Outperform
$32.26B27.906.26%1.20%59.12%12.12%
56
Neutral
C$4.11B-0.170.41%6.51%5.45%-66.94%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
958.81
189.60
24.65%
CTRA
Coterra Energy
24.32
1.67
7.37%
DVN
Devon Energy
32.31
-9.51
-22.74%
EQT
EQT
51.69
21.77
72.76%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
43.08
-11.95
-21.72%
FANG
Diamondback
145.68
-39.88
-21.49%

Texas Pacific Land Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Texas Pacific Land Reports Record Q2 2025 Results
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced record financial results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting significant achievements in oil and gas royalty production, easements, and produced water royalties. The company also began constructing a produced water desalination facility in Orla, Texas, expected to be operational by late 2025, reflecting its strategic focus on water management in the Permian Basin. Despite a decrease in total revenues compared to the previous quarter, TPL’s financial resilience amid commodity price volatility was emphasized, with substantial revenue potential identified in its water management initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPL) stock is a Buy with a $917.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Pacific Land stock, see the TPL Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Texas Pacific Land Reports Record Q1 2025 Results
Positive
May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting record oil and gas royalty production and water services revenue. The company reported a net income of $120.7 million and total revenues of $196.0 million, driven by increased oil and gas royalty revenue and water sales. Despite economic volatility, TPL’s strong financial position and business model allow it to remain resilient and opportunistic.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2025