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Exact Sciences Corp (EXAS)
:EXAS
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Exact Sciences
(NASDAQ:EXAS)53Neutral
Positive Factors
Product Launch
The first major project launch (Cologuard Plus) since the FDA approval of Cologuard 10 years ago is considered a strong positive catalyst for the company.
Revenue Growth
Total revenues of $713M were also ahead of expectations, driven by strength with Screening/Cologuard.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
The Adj. EBITDA guide fell short at $425mn at midpoint, approximately 7% below Street expectations.
Exact Sciences (EXAS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.83B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth10.37%
EPS Growth-389.98%
CountryUS
Employees6,500
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength74
IndustryMedical Diagnostics & Screening
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.56
Shares Outstanding185,755,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,967,979
30 Day Avg. Volume2,215,103
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)3.20
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)46.90
P/FCF Ratio42.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$72.57Price Target Upside48.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
Exact Sciences Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExact Sciences Corporation is a leading molecular diagnostics company focused on the early detection and prevention of some of the deadliest forms of cancer. Primarily operating in the healthcare and biotechnology sectors, the company is renowned for its non-invasive colon cancer screening test, Cologuard, which has become a widely used tool for early cancer detection. In addition to Cologuard, Exact Sciences is developing a range of diagnostic tests aimed at other forms of cancer, emphasizing innovation and precision in cancer diagnostics.
How the Company Makes MoneyExact Sciences generates revenue primarily through the sales of its flagship product, Cologuard, a non-invasive stool-based DNA test for colorectal cancer screening. The company partners with healthcare providers and insurance companies to make Cologuard accessible to a broad patient base, ensuring reimbursement and widespread adoption. Revenue is also driven by the scaling of its laboratory operations and research services. Moreover, Exact Sciences invests in research and development to expand its diagnostic test offerings for other types of cancer, potentially broadening its revenue streams as these products come to market.
Exact Sciences Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Exact Sciences demonstrates strong revenue growth and improving cash flow generation, but faces challenges in profitability and increased leverage. The company must focus on cost management to improve margins and reduce debt levels for enhanced financial stability and sustainable growth.Income Statement
Exact Sciences shows strong revenue growth over the years, with Total Revenue increasing from $876.3 million in 2019 to $2.76 billion in 2024. However, the company struggles with profitability, consistently reporting negative Net Income. The Gross Profit Margin is solid but the Net Profit Margin is negative due to high costs and expenses relative to revenue. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also weak, indicating challenges in operational efficiency.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio has increased over time, indicating higher leverage. Stockholders' Equity has decreased, showing declining retained earnings. The Equity Ratio remains reasonable, suggesting that a significant portion of the company is financed by equity. However, the increasing Total Debt is a concern for financial stability.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals some positive trends in Free Cash Flow, which turned positive in recent years. Operating Cash Flow has improved, suggesting better cash management. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is skewed due to negative Net Income figures. The company needs to continue focusing on generating positive cash flows to support growth and reduce reliance on external financing.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 2.76B | 2.50B | 2.08B | 1.77B | 1.49B | Gross Profit |
| 1.92B | 1.85B | 1.51B | 1.31B | 1.14B | EBIT |
| -1.05B | -215.01M | -577.54M | -835.47M | -558.35M | EBITDA |
| -789.33M | 41.88M | -386.74M | -617.73M | -632.86M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -1.03B | -204.15M | -623.51M | -595.63M | -848.53M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 1.04B | 777.64M | 632.06M | 1.03B | 1.84B | Total Assets |
| 5.93B | 6.47B | 6.23B | 6.68B | 4.93B | Total Debt |
| 2.75B | 2.55B | 2.45B | 2.36B | 1.46B | Net Debt |
| 2.15B | 1.95B | 2.20B | 2.05B | -27.11M | Total Liabilities |
| 3.53B | 3.33B | 3.18B | 3.30B | 2.10B | Stockholders Equity |
| 2.40B | 3.15B | 3.04B | 3.39B | 2.82B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 74.55M | 31.93M | -438.02M | -238.00M | 72.13M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 210.54M | 156.12M | -223.56M | -102.24M | 136.48M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -442.15M | 49.68M | 74.07M | -1.08B | -702.04M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 231.87M | 159.77M | 76.48M | 8.47M | 1.88B |
Exact Sciences Technical Analysis
Negative
48.78
Price Trends
53.88
Negative
58.20
Negative
55.95
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.81
Positive
39.70
Neutral
33.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXAS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.62, below the 50-day MA of 53.88, and below the 200-day MA of 55.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXAS.
Exact Sciences Risk Analysis
Exact Sciences disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Exact Sciences reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Exact Sciences Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $19.19B | 22.56 | 12.85% | 1.70% | 6.70% | 2.56% | |
74 Outperform | $8.36B | 102.88 | 2.63% | ― | 0.62% | -72.32% | |
53 Neutral | $8.83B | ― | -42.83% | ― | 10.37% | -389.98% | |
53 Neutral | $5.12B | ― | 312.48% | ― | 31.04% | 16.91% | |
51 Neutral | $976.81M | ― | -15.85% | ― | 12.15% | 61.33% | |
49 Neutral | $7.05B | 0.34 | -55.09% | 2.46% | 25.27% | -3.43% | |
49 Neutral | $13.45B | ― | -51.54% | ― | -2.93% | -4.69% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
EXAS
Exact Sciences
48.78
-9.72
-16.62%
ILMN
Illumina
84.89
-46.00
-35.14%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
10.42
-11.81
-53.13%
QGEN
Qiagen
37.82
-6.12
-13.93%
DGX
Quest Diagnostics
175.01
53.07
43.52%
GH
Guardant Health
41.48
22.71
120.99%
Exact Sciences Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 19, 2025 | % Change Since: -3.37% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong financial performance with significant revenue and EBITDA growth, especially in the Screening segment. The company highlighted major achievements like FDA approval for Cologuard Plus and strong international expansion in Precision Oncology. However, the call also addressed challenges such as a substantial non-cash impairment charge related to the Thrive acquisition and modest growth in Precision Oncology. Overall, the positive aspects of revenue growth, new product launches, and strategic advancements outweigh the lowlights, indicating a positive sentiment.Highlights
Strong Revenue Growth
Fourth quarter revenue grew 10% with a 14% increase in Screening revenue to $553 million. Precision oncology revenue increased slightly to $161 million.
Significant EBITDA Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA increased 52% to $75 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded nearly 300 basis points.
FDA Approval and Medicare Pricing for Cologuard Plus
Secured FDA approval and Medicare pricing for Cologuard Plus, a next-generation colon cancer screening test, with a Medicare price of $592.
Positive Outlook for 2025
Guidance for 2025 anticipates total revenue between $3.025 billion and $3.085 billion, with 11% total revenue growth, including 13% in Screening.
Recognition as a Great Place to Work
Exact Sciences was recognized as a great place to work for the sixth consecutive year.
Expansion in Precision Oncology
Strong double-digit growth internationally in Precision Oncology, leveraging the Oncotype DX brand.
Lowlights
Non-Cash Impairment Charge
Recognized an $830 million non-cash impairment charge related to the Thrive acquisition, reflecting changes in expected reimbursement.
Reclassification of Costs
Costs related to customer care were reclassified from G&A to sales and marketing, impacting financial statements.
Modest Growth in Precision Oncology
Precision oncology revenue only increased slightly, indicating slower growth compared to other segments.
External Factors Affecting Thrive Acquisition
The write-down of the Thrive acquisition was influenced by external factors, such as expected reimbursement outlined in recent legislation.
Company Guidance
During the Exact Sciences Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, projecting total revenue between $680 million and $695 million for Q1, and between $3.025 billion and $3.085 billion for the full year. Screening revenue is expected to be between $520 million and $530 million for Q1, and $2.35 billion to $2.39 billion for the year. Precision Oncology revenue is forecasted to be between $160 million and $165 million for Q1, and $675 million to $695 million for the full year. Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is expected to be between $410 million and $440 million, with an anticipated 220 basis point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin. The company also highlighted key growth drivers including a 13% increase in Screening revenue, supported by the launch of Cologuard Plus, and a 5% growth in Precision Oncology, with strong international performance of Oncotype DX.Exact Sciences Corporate Events
Product-Related AnnouncementsPrivate Placements and FinancingFinancial Disclosures
Exact Sciences Boosts Finances and Plans New Launches
Positive
Jan 13, 2025
Exact Sciences Corp. announced the signing of a new $500 million revolving credit agreement, replacing its previous credit arrangement, to enhance working capital and corporate operations. The company also reported strong preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with a 10% revenue increase compared to the previous year, and plans to launch three new cancer tests in 2025, which is expected to bolster its market position and advance its mission in cancer diagnostics.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.