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CareDx (CDNA)
NASDAQ:CDNA
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CareDx
(NASDAQ:CDNA)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-5.85% Downside)
CareDx's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with profitability but declining revenue and cash flow growth. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, while the valuation suggests reasonable pricing. The earnings call provided positive growth indicators but also highlighted potential risks. These factors combined result in a moderate stock score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth in Testing Services
Consistent growth in testing services revenue indicates strong demand and market penetration, enhancing long-term business sustainability.
Advancements in Kidney Testing
Significant growth in kidney testing volume reflects successful product adoption, supporting future revenue potential and market leadership.
Launch of AlloSure Plus
The launch of AlloSure Plus enhances CareDx's product portfolio, offering innovative solutions that can drive competitive advantage and market expansion.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Growth
Negative revenue growth indicates challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could affect long-term financial health and market position.
Operational Challenges
Operational inefficiencies, as shown by negative margins, may hinder profitability and require strategic improvements to sustain growth.
Potential Impact of Draft LCD Policy
The draft LCD policy could significantly impact revenue, posing a regulatory risk that may affect financial performance and strategic planning.
CareDx (CDNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$801.60M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)1.68
Revenue Growth14.72%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees644
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.16
Shares Outstanding53,226,948
10 Day Avg. Volume1,409,006
30 Day Avg. Volume1,481,923
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-32.39
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.50Price Target Upside31.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyCareDx generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic testing services. The company charges healthcare providers for its proprietary tests, which are ordered for transplant patients to assess organ health and rejection risk. Key revenue streams include direct sales of testing services, which are often reimbursed by insurance providers, and partnerships with transplant centers and healthcare organizations that integrate CareDx's services into their patient care protocols. Additionally, CareDx may engage in collaborations with pharmaceutical companies for clinical trials and research, further diversifying its revenue opportunities.
CareDx Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong performance with significant revenue growth in Testing Services and advancements in kidney testing. Operational improvements and the launch of AlloSure Plus are positive indicators. However, there are concerns related to the revenue write-off and potential financial impacts of the draft LCD policy.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth in Testing Services
Adjusted Testing Services revenue was $66 million, up 14% year-over-year, with a delivery of approximately 49,500 tests, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of sequential testing volume growth.
Significant Advancements in Kidney Testing
Kidney testing volume grew nearly 20% year-over-year, surpassing 60 surveillance protocols nationally.
Introduction of AlloSure Plus
Launch of AlloSure Plus, an AI-driven diagnostic to deliver a personalized risk score of rejection, integrating AlloSure results with standard care measures.
Operational Excellence Initiatives
Improvements in revenue cycle management, including a 60% reduction in claim submission time and a 45% increase in prior authorization success rate.
Growth in Patient & Digital Solutions
Reported revenue of $12.8 million, representing 19% growth compared to the previous year.
Negative Updates
Revenue Write-off
A $3.8 million write-off associated with tests performed in prior periods, with Testing Services revenue reported as $62 million, down 13% year-over-year.
Potential Impact of Draft LCD Policy
Possible $15 million to $30 million headwind on a full year basis depending on the finalization of the draft policy related to bundled payments and frequency limits.
Company Guidance
During the CareDx Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided several financial metrics and projections. Adjusted revenue for the quarter was reported at $90.5 million, marking a 14% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $9.1 million, a significant improvement from a $300,000 loss in the same period last year. The company reaffirmed the midpoint of its 2025 revenue guidance, narrowing the range to $367 million to $373 million, and maintained expectations for adjusted EBITDA of $29 million to $33 million. Testing Services revenue reached $66 million, with 49,500 tests delivered, reflecting a 13% increase in testing volume year-over-year. The company also highlighted progress in kidney testing, noting a nearly 20% growth, and introduced AlloSure Plus, an AI-driven diagnostic for kidney transplant monitoring. The call addressed potential headwinds from a draft LCD policy, estimating a $15 million to $30 million impact depending on the final policy's implementation. Additionally, the company reported operational improvements, including a 60% reduction in claim submission time and a 45% increase in prior authorization success rate.CareDx Financial Statement Overview
Summary
CareDx demonstrates strong financial health with significant revenue growth and improved profitability. The balance sheet is solid, characterized by low leverage and a strong equity position. Cash flow generation has improved, although some volatility remains. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory with potential for sustained growth, though careful management of cash flow fluctuations is advised.Income Statement
CareDx shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a notable increase in total revenue from $280.3M in 2023 to $346.4M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting a robust growth rate. The gross profit margin is healthy at 67.5% for TTM, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin has improved significantly to 17% in TTM, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, historical EBIT and EBITDA margins have been volatile, with recent improvements suggesting a positive turnaround.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio stands at 77.5%, reflecting a solid equity base. Return on equity (ROE) has improved to 15.5% in TTM, highlighting effective use of equity to generate profits. The company's liquidity position is robust, with substantial cash reserves exceeding total debt.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend, with free cash flow turning positive to $25.1M in TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.45, suggesting moderate cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been inconsistent, requiring careful monitoring.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 340.83M | 333.79M | 280.32M | 321.79M | 296.40M | 192.19M |
| Gross Profit | 227.35M | 224.16M | 178.32M | 209.58M | 199.01M | 129.08M |
| EBITDA | -27.91M | -33.99M | -89.66M | -61.22M | -17.84M | -10.21M |
| Net Income | 51.68M | 52.55M | -190.28M | -76.61M | -30.66M | -18.71M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 444.26M | 491.05M | 466.83M | 542.99M | 566.62M | 368.51M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 186.25M | 260.65M | 235.42M | 293.09M | 348.49M | 224.70M |
| Total Debt | 29.12M | 28.37M | 34.22M | 39.00M | 17.39M | 16.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 116.89M | 112.62M | 205.50M | 112.08M | 100.75M | 90.83M |
| Stockholders Equity | 327.37M | 378.43M | 261.33M | 430.91M | 465.88M | 277.68M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 17.85M | 31.56M | -27.63M | -49.57M | -39.55M | 23.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.72M | 38.05M | -18.39M | -25.24M | -19.29M | 33.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 8.21M | -483.00K | 40.45M | -228.50M | 47.71M | -100.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -53.94M | -5.61M | -29.61M | -4.54M | 185.64M | 163.15M |
CareDx Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.87
Price Trends
13.07
Positive
15.61
Negative
18.20
Negative
Market Momentum
0.47
Negative
59.22
Neutral
76.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.99, above the 50-day MA of 13.07, and below the 200-day MA of 18.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CDNA.
CareDx Risk Analysis
CareDx disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CareDx reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CareDx Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | 676.46M | -13.21 | -4.57% | ― | 4.31% | 69.57% | |
59 Neutral | 657.62M | -63.93 | -2.08% | ― | 20.40% | -165.41% | |
58 Neutral | $801.60M | 14.75 | 20.73% | ― | 14.72% | ― | |
52 Neutral | 718.30M | -1.81 | -101.83% | ― | 3.83% | -137.31% | |
52 Neutral | 537.38M | -4.70 | -47.85% | ― | 0.36% | 22.13% | |
50 Neutral | 1.02B | -9.64 | -12.18% | ― | 9.70% | -30.94% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CDNA
CareDx
14.87
-14.83
-49.93%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
7.76
-18.70
-70.67%
NEO
NeoGenomics
7.86
-6.64
-45.79%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
22.03
0.87
4.11%
PSNL
Personalis
5.98
0.76
14.56%
CSTL
Castle Biosciences
22.74
-5.12
-18.38%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.