CareDx (CDNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $697.27M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.74
• Revenue Growth: 14.72%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 644
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 53,226,948
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,742,876
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,458,357
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -32.39
• 1Y Price Target: $19.13
• Price Target Upside: 38.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▼(-9.55% Downside)

CareDx's overall stock score is driven by mixed financial performance and bearish technical indicators. The company's reasonable valuation and positive earnings call sentiment provide some support, while strategic corporate events like the CFO appointment and stock repurchase program offer additional optimism. However, declining revenue and cash flow growth, along with operational challenges, weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Product and Service Expansion

The publication of Kidney Allograft Outcomes AlloSure Registry data, the launch of AlloSure Plus, and the increased covered lives should help drive further protocol adoption and adherence.

Revenue Growth Potential

CareDx has the potential to boost revenue by approximately $125 million over time through expanded payor coverage and revenue capture initiatives.

Stock Valuation

The stock is considered substantially undervalued at the current price, even if the rule is finalized.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Total revenue was $86.7M, representing 6% YoY decline and missing our projection of $90.6M.

Regulatory Challenges

CDNA shares experienced a significant drop likely due to concerns about the impact of the proposed LCD on molecular testing for solid organ transplant rejection.

Revenue Impact

The proposed LCD limits on test frequency could significantly reduce AlloSure Kidney revenues, which make up a large portion of CDNA's testing revenues.

CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

CareDx generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic testing services. The company charges healthcare providers for its proprietary tests, which are ordered for transplant patients to assess organ health and rejection risk. Key revenue streams include direct sales of testing services, which are often reimbursed by insurance providers, and partnerships with transplant centers and healthcare organizations that integrate CareDx's services into their patient care protocols. Additionally, CareDx may engage in collaborations with pharmaceutical companies for clinical trials and research, further diversifying its revenue opportunities.

CareDx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CareDx demonstrates strong financial health with significant revenue growth and improved profitability. The balance sheet is solid, characterized by low leverage and a strong equity position. Cash flow generation has improved, although some volatility remains. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory with potential for sustained growth, though careful management of cash flow fluctuations is advised.

Income Statement

CareDx shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a notable increase in total revenue from $280.3M in 2023 to $346.4M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting a robust growth rate. The gross profit margin is healthy at 67.5% for TTM, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin has improved significantly to 17% in TTM, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, historical EBIT and EBITDA margins have been volatile, with recent improvements suggesting a positive turnaround.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio stands at 77.5%, reflecting a solid equity base. Return on equity (ROE) has improved to 15.5% in TTM, highlighting effective use of equity to generate profits. The company's liquidity position is robust, with substantial cash reserves exceeding total debt.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend, with free cash flow turning positive to $25.1M in TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.45, suggesting moderate cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been inconsistent, requiring careful monitoring.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	340.83M	333.79M	280.32M	321.79M	296.40M	192.19M
Gross Profit	227.35M	224.16M	178.32M	209.58M	199.01M	129.08M
EBITDA	-27.91M	-33.99M	-89.66M	-61.22M	-17.84M	-10.21M
Net Income	51.68M	52.55M	-190.28M	-76.61M	-30.66M	-18.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	444.26M	491.05M	466.83M	542.99M	566.62M	368.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	186.25M	260.65M	235.42M	293.09M	348.49M	224.70M
Total Debt	29.12M	28.37M	34.22M	39.00M	17.39M	16.07M
Total Liabilities	116.89M	112.62M	205.50M	112.08M	100.75M	90.83M
Stockholders Equity	327.37M	378.43M	261.33M	430.91M	465.88M	277.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.85M	31.56M	-27.63M	-49.57M	-39.55M	23.07M
Operating Cash Flow	17.72M	38.05M	-18.39M	-25.24M	-19.29M	33.43M
Investing Cash Flow	8.21M	-483.00K	40.45M	-228.50M	47.71M	-100.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-53.94M	-5.61M	-29.61M	-4.54M	185.64M	163.15M

CareDx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 13.82
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.61, below the 50-day MA of 14.53, and below the 200-day MA of 18.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CDNA.

CareDx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FLGT	63 Neutral	$672.79M	―	-4.54%	―	4.31%	69.57%
CSTL	59 Neutral	$669.80M	30.59	-2.15%	―	20.40%	-165.41%
CDNA	56 Neutral	$697.27M	13.53	20.73%	―	14.72%	―
MYGN	52 Neutral	$631.77M	―	-70.03%	―	3.83%	-137.31%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.92B	-0.43	-41.67%	2.21%	22.29%	-1.85%
NEO	48 Neutral	$1.04B	―	-11.76%	―	9.70%	-30.94%
BDSX	47 Neutral	$65.00M	―	-219.68%	―	25.70%	39.23%

CareDx Corporate Events

CareDx Appoints New CFO Amid Financial Growth

CareDx announced the appointment of Nathan Smith as the new Chief Financial Officer effective August 7, 2025, following the retirement of Abhishek Jain. The company also reported its second quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a 14% year-over-year increase in adjusted revenue to $90.5 million and a narrowed full-year revenue guidance to $367 million to $373 million. CareDx continues to strengthen its position in the transplant care industry with significant growth in testing services and the launch of new products.

CareDx Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On June 12, 2025, CareDx, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where several key proposals were voted upon. The stockholders approved the election of two Class II directors, Fred E. Cohen and R. Bryan Riggsbee, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, the executive compensation on an advisory basis, and an amendment to the 2024 Equity Incentive Plan.

CareDx Announces New $50 Million Stock Repurchase

On May 30, 2025, CareDx‘s Board of Directors authorized a new $50 million stock repurchase program to be executed over the next 24 months, following the completion of a previous $50 million repurchase. This decision comes after CareDx completed the repurchase of approximately 5% of its outstanding shares, reflecting the company’s strong financial position with $231 million in cash and no debt. The repurchase is part of CareDx’s strategy to return value to shareholders while continuing to invest in growth and innovation, as evidenced by their seventh consecutive quarter of testing services volume growth and an 18% year-over-year increase in first-quarter revenue.