CareDx (CDNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $885.67M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.13
• Revenue Growth: 14.46%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 644
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 51,432,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 957,989
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,123,784
• PEG Ratio: -0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.69
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -35.80
• 1Y Price Target: $22.00
• Price Target Upside: 27.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(21.95% Upside)

CareDx's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the primary drivers of its stock score. The company's robust revenue growth and improved profitability, along with strategic product launches and operational enhancements, contribute significantly to its favorable outlook. Technical indicators support a bullish trend, while the valuation remains reasonable. The absence of a dividend yield is a minor consideration.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for CareDx's products, enhancing its market position and supporting long-term sustainability.

Product Innovation

Innovative product launches like HistoMap Kidney demonstrate CareDx's commitment to advancing transplant diagnostics, potentially driving future growth.

Cash Flow Management

Strong cash flow management supports ongoing investments and operational flexibility, crucial for sustaining long-term growth and stability.

Negative Factors

Flat Transplant Volumes

Flat transplant volumes could limit growth potential in the core market, challenging revenue expansion and operational scaling.

Operational Efficiency Challenges

Operational inefficiencies, as indicated by negative margins, may hinder profitability improvements and require strategic focus to resolve.

IOTA Program Impact

Delayed impact from the IOTA program may affect expected growth in transplant volumes, impacting future revenue projections.

CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

CareDx generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests and related services. The company operates on a fee-for-service model, where healthcare providers and institutions pay for each test performed. Key revenue streams include the direct sales of AlloSure and AlloMap tests, as well as ongoing contracts with transplant centers and hospitals that utilize these products for patient monitoring. Additionally, CareDx benefits from partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions that seek to enhance their understanding of transplant biology and improve patient care. The company also invests in expanding its test menu and capabilities, which can lead to new revenue opportunities as the demand for transplant diagnostics continues to grow.

CareDx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CareDx's financial performance is mixed. The company is profitable with a positive net profit margin, but revenue and cash flow growth are declining. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but the decrease in equity ratio could pose a risk. Operational challenges are evident in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, requiring attention to improve efficiency.

Income Statement

CareDx's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a positive net profit margin of 15.16% in the TTM, indicating profitability. However, revenue growth is negative at -1.62%, suggesting a decline in sales. The gross profit margin has decreased from previous years, and EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating low leverage. Return on equity is positive at 15.22%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio has decreased over time, which may indicate a reduction in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth at -28.93% in the TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.19, suggesting limited cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.01, indicating that the company is generating sufficient free cash flow relative to its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	358.00M	333.79M	280.32M	321.79M	296.40M	192.19M
Gross Profit	241.44M	224.16M	178.32M	209.58M	199.01M	129.08M
EBITDA	-17.17M	-33.99M	-84.92M	-61.22M	-17.84M	-8.17M
Net Income	60.76M	52.55M	-190.28M	-76.61M	-30.66M	-18.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	432.31M	491.05M	466.83M	542.99M	566.62M	368.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	194.22M	260.65M	235.42M	293.09M	348.49M	224.70M
Total Debt	27.64M	28.37M	34.22M	39.00M	21.35M	18.10M
Total Liabilities	121.17M	112.62M	205.50M	112.08M	100.75M	90.83M
Stockholders Equity	311.14M	378.43M	261.33M	430.91M	465.88M	277.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	37.09M	31.56M	-27.63M	-49.57M	-39.55M	23.07M
Operating Cash Flow	42.56M	38.05M	-18.39M	-25.24M	-19.29M	33.43M
Investing Cash Flow	34.96M	-483.00K	40.45M	-228.50M	47.71M	-100.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-81.83M	-5.61M	-29.61M	-4.54M	185.64M	163.15M

CareDx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.38, below the 50-day MA of 17.71, and above the 200-day MA of 16.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CDNA.

CareDx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDNA	77 Outperform	$885.67M	14.44	24.11%	―	14.46%	―
CSTL	63 Neutral	$1.16B	-88.62	-2.69%	―	10.15%	-295.52%
NEO	55 Neutral	$1.66B	-14.45	-12.99%	―	10.10%	-44.29%
FLGT	53 Neutral	$862.15M	-19.90	-3.80%	―	13.60%	74.64%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
PSNL	49 Neutral	$743.74M	-9.56	-43.69%	―	-21.02%	47.74%
MYGN	41 Neutral	$611.48M	-1.51	-72.52%	―	0.21%	-233.51%

CareDx Corporate Events

CareDx Wins Preliminary Court Approval for Derivative Settlement

On September 26, 2025, CareDx, Inc. reached an agreement in principle to settle a shareholder derivative lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, consolidating claims that current and former directors and officers issued materially false and misleading statements about the company’s testing services and failed in their fiduciary oversight duties. On December 9, 2025, the court granted preliminary approval of the proposed settlement, authorized notice to current CareDx shareholders of record as of September 26, 2025, and scheduled a hearing for June 30, 2026 to consider final approval, a step that, if confirmed, would resolve both the federal derivative action and related Delaware Chancery litigation without any direct compensation process for individual shareholders, while potentially reducing ongoing legal uncertainty stemming from these governance and disclosure disputes.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.

CareDx Reports Strong Q3 Financial Results

On November 4, 2025, CareDx announced its third-quarter financial results, highlighting a 21% year-over-year revenue increase to $100.1 million, driven by a 19% rise in testing services revenue and a 13% growth in testing services volume. The company reported a GAAP net income of $1.7 million, a significant improvement from the previous year’s loss, and raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $372 million to $376 million. Recent strategic moves include appointing new leadership, publishing studies, and launching innovative products, reinforcing its market leadership in transplant care.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.

CareDx Appoints Suresh Gunasekaran as New Director

On October 22, 2025, CareDx, Inc. appointed Suresh Gunasekaran as a Class II director. Mr. Gunasekaran, with extensive experience in healthcare leadership, will receive compensation in cash and restricted stock units as part of his non-employee director role. This appointment may enhance CareDx’s strategic direction and governance with Mr. Gunasekaran’s expertise.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.