CareDx (CDNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $772.00M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.41
• Revenue Growth: 14.46%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 644
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 51,432,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,323,228
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,188,003
• PEG Ratio: -0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -25.36
• 1Y Price Target: $22.00
• Price Target Upside: 46.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $371.62M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.50 ▲(16.59% Upside)

CareDx's overall stock score reflects a strong earnings call with significant revenue growth and operational improvements, which is the most impactful factor. The technical analysis supports a positive trend, while the valuation is reasonable. However, mixed financial performance and operational challenges slightly offset these positives.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant year-over-year revenue growth indicates strong demand for CareDx's diagnostic solutions, enhancing its market position and supporting long-term business expansion.

Product Innovation

The launch of HistoMap Kidney showcases CareDx's commitment to innovation, potentially driving future growth by expanding its product offerings and improving transplant patient outcomes.

Operational Improvements

Significant improvement in EBITDA reflects enhanced operational efficiency, which can lead to better profitability and financial health over the long term.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth indicates potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could affect long-term financial stability and market competitiveness.

Operational Challenges

Negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight ongoing operational inefficiencies, which may hinder profitability and require strategic adjustments to improve performance.

Flat Transplant Volumes

Flat transplant volumes limit growth potential in CareDx's core market, potentially impacting revenue and necessitating diversification or innovation to drive future growth.

CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

CareDx generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic testing services. The company charges healthcare providers for its proprietary tests, which are ordered for transplant patients to assess organ health and rejection risk. Key revenue streams include direct sales of testing services, which are often reimbursed by insurance providers, and partnerships with transplant centers and healthcare organizations that integrate CareDx's services into their patient care protocols. Additionally, CareDx may engage in collaborations with pharmaceutical companies for clinical trials and research, further diversifying its revenue opportunities.

CareDx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CareDx's financial performance is mixed. The company is profitable with a positive net profit margin, but revenue and cash flow growth are declining. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but the decrease in equity ratio could pose a risk. Operational challenges are evident in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, requiring attention to improve efficiency.

Income Statement

CareDx's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a positive net profit margin of 15.16% in the TTM, indicating profitability. However, revenue growth is negative at -1.62%, suggesting a decline in sales. The gross profit margin has decreased from previous years, and EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating low leverage. Return on equity is positive at 15.22%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio has decreased over time, which may indicate a reduction in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth at -28.93% in the TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.19, suggesting limited cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.01, indicating that the company is generating sufficient free cash flow relative to its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	358.00M	333.79M	280.32M	321.79M	296.40M	192.19M
Gross Profit	172.69M	224.16M	178.32M	209.58M	199.01M	129.08M
EBITDA	-24.24M	-33.99M	-84.92M	-61.22M	-17.84M	-8.17M
Net Income	60.76M	52.55M	-190.28M	-76.61M	-30.66M	-18.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	432.31M	491.05M	466.83M	542.99M	566.62M	368.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	194.22M	260.65M	235.42M	293.09M	348.49M	224.70M
Total Debt	27.64M	28.37M	34.22M	39.00M	21.35M	18.10M
Total Liabilities	121.17M	112.62M	205.50M	112.08M	100.75M	90.83M
Stockholders Equity	311.14M	378.43M	261.33M	430.91M	465.88M	277.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	37.09M	31.56M	-27.63M	-49.57M	-39.55M	23.07M
Operating Cash Flow	42.56M	38.05M	-18.39M	-25.24M	-19.29M	33.43M
Investing Cash Flow	34.96M	-483.00K	40.45M	-228.50M	47.71M	-100.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-81.83M	-5.61M	-29.61M	-4.54M	185.64M	163.15M

CareDx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.85, above the 50-day MA of 14.53, and below the 200-day MA of 17.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CDNA.

CareDx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDNA	64 Neutral	$772.00M	13.10	24.11%	―	14.46%	―
CSTL	62 Neutral	$979.86M	―	-2.69%	―	10.15%	-295.52%
FLGT	57 Neutral	$697.27M	―	-4.54%	―	4.31%	69.57%
NEO	53 Neutral	$1.35B	―	-12.99%	―	10.10%	-44.29%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
MYGN	51 Neutral	$613.35M	―	-72.52%	―	0.21%	-233.51%
PSNL	51 Neutral	$680.24M	―	-43.69%	―	-21.02%	47.74%

CareDx Corporate Events

CareDx Inc. Reports Strong Q3 Earnings Growth

In the recent earnings call, CareDx Inc. reported a robust quarter marked by substantial revenue growth and operational enhancements. The company celebrated successful product launches and strategic initiatives, although it acknowledged the flat market conditions for transplant volumes and the unrealized impact from the IOTA program.

CareDx Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

CareDx, Inc., headquartered in Brisbane, California, is a precision medicine company specializing in the development and commercialization of healthcare solutions for transplant patients and caregivers, offering genomics-based information and digital healthcare solutions.

CareDx Reports Strong Q3 Financial Results

On November 4, 2025, CareDx announced its third-quarter financial results, highlighting a 21% year-over-year revenue increase to $100.1 million, driven by a 19% rise in testing services revenue and a 13% growth in testing services volume. The company reported a GAAP net income of $1.7 million, a significant improvement from the previous year’s loss, and raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $372 million to $376 million. Recent strategic moves include appointing new leadership, publishing studies, and launching innovative products, reinforcing its market leadership in transplant care.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.

CareDx Appoints Suresh Gunasekaran as New Director

On October 22, 2025, CareDx, Inc. appointed Suresh Gunasekaran as a Class II director. Mr. Gunasekaran, with extensive experience in healthcare leadership, will receive compensation in cash and restricted stock units as part of his non-employee director role. This appointment may enhance CareDx’s strategic direction and governance with Mr. Gunasekaran’s expertise.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.

CareDx Inc. Reports Strong Growth Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call for CareDx Inc. painted a picture of robust growth and operational improvements, tempered by some potential challenges on the horizon. The company reported strong revenue growth across its Testing Services and Patient & Digital Solutions sectors, while also noting concerns about a draft LCD policy and delays in its EPIC rollout.

CareDx Reports Strong Growth in Testing Services

CareDx, Inc., headquartered in Brisbane, California, is a precision medicine company specializing in genomics-based solutions for transplant patients and caregivers, offering testing services, products, and digital healthcare solutions throughout the transplant journey.

CareDx Appoints New CFO Amid Financial Growth

CareDx announced the appointment of Nathan Smith as the new Chief Financial Officer effective August 7, 2025, following the retirement of Abhishek Jain. The company also reported its second quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a 14% year-over-year increase in adjusted revenue to $90.5 million and a narrowed full-year revenue guidance to $367 million to $373 million. CareDx continues to strengthen its position in the transplant care industry with significant growth in testing services and the launch of new products.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.