CareDx (CDNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.78
• Revenue Growth: 25.92%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 644
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 55,680,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,005,932
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,017,845
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.07
• 1Y Price Target: $25.00
• Price Target Upside: 28.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $22.00 ▲(12.88%Upside)

CareDx's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive corporate events, including a significant stock repurchase program. Technical analysis shows moderate bullish momentum, while valuation is reasonable. The earnings call provided a positive outlook, though some operational challenges were noted.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Total revenue was $84.7M, representing 17.5% YoY growth and beating our projection of $84.0M.

Financial position

The company had $230.9M in cash and investments, indicating a strong cash position.

Market valuation

Shares of CDNA are trading at just 1.6x our 2026 rev estimate of $429M, a roughly 3-turn discount to its peers which trade at ~4.5x.

Negative Factors

Investment risks

Investment risks include failure of AlloMap and AlloSure tests to achieve commercial success due to market size, penetration rate, reimbursement and/or competition.

Litigation

The District Court overturned the jury verdict in patent litigation brought by a competitor and ruled that the patents asserted against CareDx are invalid.

Stock performance

Shares of CDNA are off 9% after the company delivered an in-line Q1 and reiterated its full-year guidance, which we view as a significant overreaction for an in-line quarter.

CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

CareDx generates its revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests, including AlloSure and AlloMap, to healthcare providers, hospitals, and laboratories. The company's revenue model is largely based on reimbursement from insurance companies, Medicare, and other payers for these tests. CareDx also earns revenue from partnerships and collaborations with research institutions and pharmaceutical companies, contributing to the development and validation of new testing solutions. Additionally, the company provides digital solutions and services, such as transplant patient management software, which contribute to its overall revenue streams.

CareDx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CareDx showcases strong revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and a prudent balance sheet with low leverage. Despite positive current cash flows, historical financial volatility suggests potential risks. Overall, the company is well-positioned within its industry.

Income Statement

CareDx has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM total revenue of $346.4M, up from $333.8M in the previous period. The gross profit margin is robust at 75.6%, and the net profit margin has improved to 17.0%, highlighting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are positive at 13.5% and 19.1%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency. However, past periods show some volatility in earnings, which may pose a risk if historical patterns repeat.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid equity base, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, suggesting conservative leverage. Return on equity has improved to 15.5%, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 77.5%, underscoring financial stability. Despite these strengths, the company's total liabilities show some increase over time, which warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

CareDx's cash flow is strong, with a TTM free cash flow of $26.7M. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.45, reflecting a healthy cash conversion from profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.45, indicating consistent cash generation relative to earnings. However, past fluctuations in free cash flow highlight potential volatility in cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	346.42M	333.79M	280.32M	321.79M	296.40M	192.19M
Gross Profit	233.68M	224.16M	178.32M	209.58M	199.01M	129.08M
EBITDA	66.33M	-33.99M	-89.66M	-61.22M	-17.84M	-10.21M
Net Income	58.85M	52.55M	-190.28M	-76.61M	-30.66M	-18.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	489.64M	491.05M	466.83M	542.99M	566.62M	368.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	230.92M	260.65M	235.42M	293.09M	348.49M	224.70M
Total Debt	30.28M	28.37M	34.22M	39.00M	17.39M	16.07M
Total Liabilities	110.29M	112.62M	205.50M	112.08M	100.75M	90.83M
Stockholders Equity	379.35M	378.43M	261.33M	430.91M	465.88M	277.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	25.11M	31.56M	-27.63M	-49.57M	-39.55M	23.07M
Operating Cash Flow	26.78M	38.05M	-18.39M	-25.24M	-19.29M	33.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-26.82M	-483.00K	40.45M	-228.50M	47.71M	-100.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.97M	-5.61M	-29.61M	-4.54M	185.64M	163.15M

CareDx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.49
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.23, above the 50-day MA of 17.75, and below the 200-day MA of 21.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CDNA.

CareDx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDNA	74 Outperform	$1.05B	16.36	21.57%	―	25.92%	―
CSTL	73 Outperform	$587.26M	30.59	-1.20%	―	38.43%	86.19%
FLGT	52 Neutral	$606.13M	―	-3.61%	―	1.71%	76.00%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.55B	0.30	-61.90%	2.27%	17.11%	1.58%
NEO	51 Neutral	$953.63M	―	-8.57%	―	10.10%	8.79%
MYGN	45 Neutral	$509.74M	―	-13.84%	―	7.38%	60.45%
BDSX	43 Neutral	$42.06M	―	-1454.41%	―	35.76%	47.48%

CareDx Corporate Events

CareDx Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On June 12, 2025, CareDx, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where several key proposals were voted upon. The stockholders approved the election of two Class II directors, Fred E. Cohen and R. Bryan Riggsbee, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, the executive compensation on an advisory basis, and an amendment to the 2024 Equity Incentive Plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.

CareDx Announces New $50 Million Stock Repurchase

On May 30, 2025, CareDx‘s Board of Directors authorized a new $50 million stock repurchase program to be executed over the next 24 months, following the completion of a previous $50 million repurchase. This decision comes after CareDx completed the repurchase of approximately 5% of its outstanding shares, reflecting the company’s strong financial position with $231 million in cash and no debt. The repurchase is part of CareDx’s strategy to return value to shareholders while continuing to invest in growth and innovation, as evidenced by their seventh consecutive quarter of testing services volume growth and an 18% year-over-year increase in first-quarter revenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.