CareDx (CDNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $724.96M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.69M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.83
• Revenue Growth: 25.92%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 644
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 37
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 55,680,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,313,348
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,687,758
• PEG Ratio: 1.57
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 42.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.28
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 30.62
• 1Y Price Target: $25.60
• Price Target Upside: 96.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(7.53%Upside)

CareDx's strong financial performance and positive earnings outlook are significant strengths, supported by a robust balance sheet and strategic initiatives like stock repurchases. However, the current technical indicators point to bearish market sentiment, which tempers the overall score.

Positive Factors

Financial Position

The company had $230.9M in cash and investments, indicating a strong cash position.

Revenue Growth Potential

CareDx has the potential to boost revenue by approximately $125 million over time through expanded payor coverage and revenue capture initiatives.

Stock Valuation

The stock is considered substantially undervalued at the current price, even if the rule is finalized.

Negative Factors

Historical Precedent

A similar scenario in the past resulted in a significant decline in stock value following changes in Medicare coverage guidelines for transplant surveillance testing.

Regulatory Challenges

The proposed LCD limits on test frequency could significantly reduce AlloSure Kidney revenues, which make up a large portion of CDNA's testing revenues.

Testing Protocols

CDNA's current testing protocols are at odds with the proposed LCD, which significantly reduces the number of tests allowed post-transplant.

CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

CareDx generates its revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests, including AlloSure and AlloMap, to healthcare providers, hospitals, and laboratories. The company's revenue model is largely based on reimbursement from insurance companies, Medicare, and other payers for these tests. CareDx also earns revenue from partnerships and collaborations with research institutions and pharmaceutical companies, contributing to the development and validation of new testing solutions. Additionally, the company provides digital solutions and services, such as transplant patient management software, which contribute to its overall revenue streams.

CareDx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CareDx demonstrates strong financial health with significant revenue growth and improved profitability. The balance sheet is solid, characterized by low leverage and a strong equity position. Cash flow generation has improved, although some volatility remains. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory with potential for sustained growth, though careful management of cash flow fluctuations is advised.

Income Statement

CareDx shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a notable increase in total revenue from $280.3M in 2023 to $346.4M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting a robust growth rate. The gross profit margin is healthy at 67.5% for TTM, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin has improved significantly to 17% in TTM, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, historical EBIT and EBITDA margins have been volatile, with recent improvements suggesting a positive turnaround.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio stands at 77.5%, reflecting a solid equity base. Return on equity (ROE) has improved to 15.5% in TTM, highlighting effective use of equity to generate profits. The company's liquidity position is robust, with substantial cash reserves exceeding total debt.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend, with free cash flow turning positive to $25.1M in TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.45, suggesting moderate cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been inconsistent, requiring careful monitoring.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	333.79M	280.32M	321.79M	296.40M	192.19M
Gross Profit	224.16M	178.32M	209.58M	199.01M	129.08M
EBITDA	-33.99M	-89.66M	-61.22M	-17.84M	-10.21M
Net Income	52.55M	-190.28M	-76.61M	-30.66M	-18.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	491.05M	466.83M	542.99M	566.62M	368.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	260.65M	235.42M	293.09M	348.49M	224.70M
Total Debt	28.37M	34.22M	39.00M	17.39M	16.07M
Total Liabilities	112.62M	205.50M	112.08M	100.75M	90.83M
Stockholders Equity	378.43M	261.33M	430.91M	465.88M	277.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	31.56M	-27.63M	-49.57M	-39.55M	23.07M
Operating Cash Flow	38.05M	-18.39M	-25.24M	-19.29M	33.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-483.00K	40.45M	-228.50M	47.71M	-100.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.61M	-29.61M	-4.54M	185.64M	163.15M

CareDx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.02
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.00, below the 50-day MA of 17.95, and below the 200-day MA of 20.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.19 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CDNA.

CareDx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDNA	67 Neutral	$724.96M	11.30	21.57%	―	25.92%	―
CSTL	64 Neutral	$471.20M	30.59	-1.20%	―	38.43%	86.19%
FLGT	52 Neutral	$541.29M	―	-3.61%	―	1.71%	76.00%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.46B	-0.04	-63.82%	2.49%	16.43%	<0.01%
NEO	51 Neutral	$803.05M	―	-8.57%	―	10.10%	8.79%
BDSX	45 Neutral	$52.76M	―	-1454.41%	―	35.76%	47.48%
MYGN	43 Neutral	$412.03M	―	-13.84%	―	7.38%	60.45%

CareDx Corporate Events

CareDx Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On June 12, 2025, CareDx, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where several key proposals were voted upon. The stockholders approved the election of two Class II directors, Fred E. Cohen and R. Bryan Riggsbee, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, the executive compensation on an advisory basis, and an amendment to the 2024 Equity Incentive Plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.

CareDx Announces New $50 Million Stock Repurchase

On May 30, 2025, CareDx‘s Board of Directors authorized a new $50 million stock repurchase program to be executed over the next 24 months, following the completion of a previous $50 million repurchase. This decision comes after CareDx completed the repurchase of approximately 5% of its outstanding shares, reflecting the company’s strong financial position with $231 million in cash and no debt. The repurchase is part of CareDx’s strategy to return value to shareholders while continuing to invest in growth and innovation, as evidenced by their seventh consecutive quarter of testing services volume growth and an 18% year-over-year increase in first-quarter revenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.