CareDx (CDNA)
NASDAQ:CDNA
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CareDx
(NASDAQ:CDNA)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$24.00
▲(12.04% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:04/29/26
CDNA scores positively on improving financial trajectory (strong TTM free cash flow and low leverage) and constructive price momentum, reinforced by raised 2026 guidance and significant EBITDA improvement discussed on the earnings call. The main constraint is valuation (high P/E) alongside remaining execution risks, including reimbursement/LCD uncertainty and integration/timing variability.
Positive Factors
Cash generation and FCF recovery
CareDx’s material turnaround in operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility. Strong FCF supports reinvestment in product development, integrations, M&A and the $100M buyback, lowering liquidity risk and enabling multi-quarter strategic execution even amid near-term profit variability.
Negative Factors
Reimbursement/LCD uncertainty
CareDx’s revenue mix is sensitive to payer policy changes; a MolDX LCD or future reimbursement adjustments could materially reduce testing revenue and per-test accruals. Payer decisions are structural drivers that affect sustainable revenue and must be managed through evidence generation and contracting over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation and FCF recovery
CareDx’s material turnaround in operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility. Strong FCF supports reinvestment in product development, integrations, M&A and the $100M buyback, lowering liquidity risk and enabling multi-quarter strategic execution even amid near-term profit variability.
Read all positive factors
CareDx Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how the company’s sales break down across its different business lines (for example diagnostics, lab services, and recurring testing or monitoring). That split reveals which parts of the business are driving growth, which produce steadier, subscription-like income, and which are more exposed to reimbursement changes, competition, or single-customer concentration—key for judging future revenue stability and upside potential.
Shows how the company’s sales break down across its different business lines (for example diagnostics, lab services, and recurring testing or monitoring). That split reveals which parts of the business are driving growth, which produce steadier, subscription-like income, and which are more exposed to reimbursement changes, competition, or single-customer concentration—key for judging future revenue stability and upside potential.
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The Fly
The FlyCareDx (CDNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.03B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)79.0
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth19.17%
EPS Growth-111.99%
CountryUS
Employees644
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.16
Shares Outstanding51,659,480
10 Day Avg. Volume957,989
30 Day Avg. Volume1,123,784
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)3.31
Price to Sales (P/S)2.64
P/FCF Ratio27.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda99.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.73Price Target Upside15.44% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$456.61M
CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Hear...
How the Company Makes Money
CareDx primarily makes money by selling transplant-related diagnostic testing and associated services to healthcare providers and payers. A core revenue stream comes from performing and billing for its molecular diagnostic tests used in post-trans...
CareDx Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong top-line growth, substantial margin and EBITDA improvement, raised full‑year guidance, a strategic simplification via a Lab Products divestiture (expected ~$160M net proceeds), and a targeted acquisition (Navaris) that expands addressable markets with strong clinical evidence and favorable reimbursement. Challenges include modest profitability and declining trends in the Lab Products segment prior to divestiture, revenue recognition timing noise, reimbursement/LCD risk (~$7.5M modeled headwind), elevated operating expenses and uncertainty in transplant procedure volumes, and integration/scale risks for Navaris and the product carve-out. On balance, the positive growth, improved profitability, cash position, and strategic actions outweigh the execution and timing risks discussed on the call.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Revenue and Volume Growth
Total revenue increased 39% year-over-year to $118.0M in Q1 2026; testing volume rose 17% to 54,900 tests.
Negative Updates
Lab Products Segment Weakness and Low Profitability
Lab products revenue declined 4% in Q1 to $10M; the Products business generated approximately $10M of revenue and less than $1M adjusted EBITDA in the period; full-year products EBITDA contribution estimated only $3M–$9M, underscoring low margin profile prior to divestiture.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 Revenue and Volume Growth
Total revenue increased 39% year-over-year to $118.0M in Q1 2026; testing volume rose 17% to 54,900 tests.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CareDx raised 2026 guidance to $447–$465M in revenue ($456M midpoint, +20% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $43–$57M ($50M midpoint, +58% YoY), with testing volume expected at 224k–229k tests (226.5k midpoint, +13% YoY). Management guided testing services revenue of $337–$351M ($344M midpoint, +25% YoY), patient & digital revenue $63–$66M ($65M midpoint, +13% YoY) and lab products revenue $45–$50M ($48M midpoint, flat), forecasting ~10% YoY revenue-per-test growth (7% from higher accruals, 3% from cash collection/receivable timing, and a $7.5M estimated LCD headwind), average accrual rising to $14.60/test by year‑end, out‑of‑period revenue of $7.5M in Q2 and $5M in Q3, modeled quarterly gross margins of ~68–71%, full‑year depreciation in operating expenses of ~$9M, operating expenses of $68–$70M (including roughly $2M incremental quarterly bonus accrual), a Board‑authorized $100M buyback (24 months), and an expected ~$160M net cash from the Lab Products divestiture at close (targeted by end of Q3).CareDx Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 412.82M | 379.81M | 333.79M | 280.32M | 321.79M | 296.40M |
| Gross Profit | 283.04M | 254.43M | 224.16M | 178.32M | 209.58M | 199.01M |
| EBITDA | 10.07M | -667.00K | -33.99M | -84.92M | -61.22M | -17.84M |
| Net Income | -8.19M | -21.35M | 52.55M | -190.28M | -76.61M | -30.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 411.06M | 413.23M | 491.05M | 466.83M | 542.99M | 566.62M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 187.18M | 177.21M | 260.65M | 235.42M | 293.09M | 348.49M |
| Total Debt | 17.84M | 19.68M | 28.37M | 34.22M | 39.00M | 21.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 97.53M | 110.13M | 112.62M | 205.50M | 112.08M | 100.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 313.54M | 303.10M | 378.43M | 261.33M | 430.91M | 465.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 65.19M | 36.12M | 31.56M | -27.63M | -49.57M | -39.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 72.95M | 42.03M | 38.05M | -18.39M | -25.24M | -19.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 11.89M | 2.16M | -483.00K | 40.45M | -228.50M | 47.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -95.66M | -93.39M | -5.61M | -29.61M | -4.54M | 185.64M |
CareDx Technical Analysis
Positive
21.42
Price Trends
19.07
Positive
19.30
Positive
17.23
Positive
Market Momentum
0.38
Positive
51.61
Neutral
17.29
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.00, above the 50-day MA of 19.07, and above the 200-day MA of 17.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CDNA.
CareDx Risk Analysis
CareDx disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CareDx reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CareDx Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.03B | 79.03 | -2.61% | ― | 19.17% | -111.99% | |
65 Neutral | $580.21M | -12.63 | -2.77% | ― | -2.06% | -169.07% | |
57 Neutral | $1.07B | -2.80 | -11.82% | ― | 10.95% | -26.52% | |
53 Neutral | $445.89M | -4.94 | -6.70% | ― | 9.54% | -79.16% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $338.12M | -3.09 | -109.09% | ― | -0.28% | -286.80% | |
49 Neutral | $666.03M | -5.52 | -43.52% | ― | -24.71% | 21.16% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CDNA
CareDx
20.59
2.89
16.33%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
3.65
-0.78
-17.61%
NEO
NeoGenomics
8.37
0.31
3.85%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
15.85
-5.37
-25.31%
PSNL
Personalis
6.72
1.70
33.86%
CSTL
Castle Biosciences
19.32
2.92
17.80%
CareDx Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
CareDx to Acquire Naveris, Expanding Oncology Diagnostics
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28, 2026, CareDx agreed to acquire circulating tumor DNA specialist Naveris for $160 million in cash plus up to $100 million in revenue-based earnouts, with Naveris to become a wholly owned subsidiary subject to standard regulatory and cl...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
CareDx Divests Lab Products to Refocus on Core Growth
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
On April 15, 2026, CareDx agreed to sell its Swedish subsidiary CareDx AB and its global Lab Products business, which includes HLA typing and post-transplant monitoring IVD kits, to Eurobio Scientific for $170 million in cash, subject to customary...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
CareDx Names New CFO Amid Strong Q4 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
CareDx reported on February 24, 2026 that its board appointed Keith Kennedy as chief financial officer and chief operating officer effective February 26, 2026, also naming him principal financial and accounting officer. Kennedy, a seasoned finance...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.