CareDx (CDNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.11B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.37M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.80
• Revenue Growth: 25.92%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 644
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 44
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 55,680,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,045,217
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,374,775
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.07
• 1Y Price Target: $25.00
• Price Target Upside: 24.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $20.00 ▼(-0.40%Downside)

CareDx's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and a positive earnings outlook, supported by promising corporate strategies like stock repurchases. Technical analysis presents mixed signals, and reasonable valuation supports a solid investment case.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Total revenue was $84.7M, representing 17.5% YoY growth and beating our projection of $84.0M.

Market Valuation

Shares of CDNA are trading at just 1.6x our 2026 rev estimate of $429M, a roughly 3-turn discount to its peers which trade at ~4.5x.

Negative Factors

Investment Risks

Investment risks include failure of AlloMap and AlloSure tests to achieve commercial success due to market size, penetration rate, reimbursement and/or competition.

Market Reaction

Shares of CDNA are off 9% after the company delivered an in-line Q1 and reiterated its full-year guidance, which we view as a significant overreaction for an in-line quarter.

CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

CareDx generates revenue through various streams centered around its transplant-related diagnostic services and products. The company primarily makes money by providing non-invasive tests that help monitor organ transplant recipients. These include AlloMap, a gene expression test used to monitor heart transplant patients, and AlloSure, a next-generation sequencing test for kidney transplant recipients. Additionally, CareDx earns revenue from laboratory services, where they conduct these tests and analyses. The company also collaborates with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, offering them access to its diagnostic services and data insights, further contributing to its revenue. Key factors contributing to CareDx's earnings include its established presence in the transplant diagnostics market, continuous innovation through research and development, and strategic partnerships that expand its testing capabilities and market reach.

CareDx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CareDx showcases strong revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and a prudent balance sheet with low leverage. Despite positive current cash flows, historical financial volatility suggests potential risks. Overall, the company is well-positioned within its industry.

Income Statement

CareDx has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM total revenue of $346.4M, up from $333.8M in the previous period. The gross profit margin is robust at 75.6%, and the net profit margin has improved to 17.0%, highlighting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are positive at 13.5% and 19.1%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency. However, past periods show some volatility in earnings, which may pose a risk if historical patterns repeat.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid equity base, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, suggesting conservative leverage. Return on equity has improved to 15.5%, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 77.5%, underscoring financial stability. Despite these strengths, the company's total liabilities show some increase over time, which warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

CareDx's cash flow is strong, with a TTM free cash flow of $26.7M. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.45, reflecting a healthy cash conversion from profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.45, indicating consistent cash generation relative to earnings. However, past fluctuations in free cash flow highlight potential volatility in cash management.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
346.42M	333.79M	280.32M	321.79M	296.40M	192.19M
	Gross Profit
233.68M	224.16M	178.32M	209.58M	199.01M	129.08M
	EBIT
46.80M	40.77M	-203.36M	-77.23M	-29.73M	-17.71M
	EBITDA
66.33M	-33.99M	-89.66M	-61.22M	-17.84M	-10.21M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
58.85M	52.55M	-190.28M	-76.61M	-30.66M	-18.71M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
230.92M	260.65M	235.42M	293.09M	348.49M	224.70M
	Total Assets
489.64M	491.05M	466.83M	542.99M	566.62M	368.51M
	Total Debt
30.28M	28.37M	34.22M	39.00M	17.39M	16.07M
	Net Debt
-58.47M	-86.32M	-47.98M	-50.92M	-331.09M	-118.60M
	Total Liabilities
110.29M	112.62M	205.50M	112.08M	100.75M	90.83M
	Stockholders Equity
379.35M	378.43M	261.33M	430.91M	465.88M	277.68M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
25.11M	31.56M	-27.63M	-49.57M	-39.55M	23.07M
	Operating Cash Flow
26.78M	38.05M	-18.39M	-25.24M	-19.29M	33.43M
	Investing Cash Flow
-26.82M	-483.00K	40.45M	-228.50M	47.71M	-100.39M
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.97M	-5.61M	-29.61M	-4.54M	185.64M	163.15M

CareDx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.08
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.84, above the 50-day MA of 17.45, and below the 200-day MA of 22.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CDNA.

CareDx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDNA	77 Outperform	$1.11B	17.43	21.57%	―	25.92%	―
CSTL	65 Neutral	$520.86M	30.59	-1.20%	―	38.43%	86.19%
FLGT	59 Neutral	$663.21M	―	-3.61%	―	1.71%	76.00%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.40	-45.06%	3.28%	16.75%	-0.02%
MYGN	51 Neutral	$482.09M	―	-13.84%	―	12.15%	61.33%
NEO	51 Neutral	$1.01B	―	-8.57%	―	10.10%	8.79%
BDSX	45 Neutral	$48.37M	―	-1454.41%	―	35.76%	47.48%

CareDx Corporate Events

CareDx Announces New $50 Million Stock Repurchase

On May 30, 2025, CareDx‘s Board of Directors authorized a new $50 million stock repurchase program to be executed over the next 24 months, following the completion of a previous $50 million repurchase. This decision comes after CareDx completed the repurchase of approximately 5% of its outstanding shares, reflecting the company’s strong financial position with $231 million in cash and no debt. The repurchase is part of CareDx’s strategy to return value to shareholders while continuing to invest in growth and innovation, as evidenced by their seventh consecutive quarter of testing services volume growth and an 18% year-over-year increase in first-quarter revenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.

CareDx Updates CFO Severance Agreement Amid Leadership Changes

On March 27, 2025, CareDx, Inc. announced an Amended and Restated Change of Control and Severance Agreement with its CFO, Abhishek Jain. This agreement outlines severance benefits for Mr. Jain in the event of a change of control or termination, impacting the company’s executive compensation structure and potentially influencing stakeholder perceptions regarding leadership stability.