CareDx (CDNA)
NASDAQ:CDNA
Top Page
CareDx
(NASDAQ:CDNA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▼(-1.80% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven primarily by improving cash generation and a conservative balance sheet, plus supportive 2026 growth/margin/EBITDA guidance from the latest earnings call. Offsetting these positives are inconsistent GAAP profitability and weak near-term technical momentum, with limited valuation support due to a negative P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
CareDx has converted to sustained positive operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025, providing durable internal funding for operations, R&D, and buybacks. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing, strengthens resilience to reimbursement shocks, and supports multi‑quarter planning.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent GAAP profitability
Earnings have swung materially year‑to‑year, reflecting volatility in reported profitability. This inconsistency impairs predictability of returns, complicates planning for recurring investments and buybacks, and indicates operating leverage that can amplify downstream shocks from reimbursement or one‑time charges.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
CareDx has converted to sustained positive operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025, providing durable internal funding for operations, R&D, and buybacks. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing, strengthens resilience to reimbursement shocks, and supports multi‑quarter planning.
Read all positive factors
CareDx (CDNA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$912.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth14.46%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees644
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding51,216,343
10 Day Avg. Volume957,989
30 Day Avg. Volume1,123,784
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)3.31
Price to Sales (P/S)2.64
P/FCF Ratio27.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.26K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.00Price Target Upside40.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$431.97M
CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Hear...
How the Company Makes Money
CareDx primarily makes money by selling transplant-related diagnostic testing and associated services to healthcare providers and payers. A core revenue stream comes from performing and billing for its molecular diagnostic tests used in post-trans...
CareDx Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how the company’s sales break down across its different business lines (for example diagnostics, lab services, and recurring testing or monitoring). That split reveals which parts of the business are driving growth, which produce steadier, subscription-like income, and which are more exposed to reimbursement changes, competition, or single-customer concentration—key for judging future revenue stability and upside potential.
Shows how the company’s sales break down across its different business lines (for example diagnostics, lab services, and recurring testing or monitoring). That split reveals which parts of the business are driving growth, which produce steadier, subscription-like income, and which are more exposed to reimbursement changes, competition, or single-customer concentration—key for judging future revenue stability and upside potential.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCareDx Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted robust top-line growth, significant improvements in cash collections and RCM execution, sustained gross margins, meaningful product and regulatory progress (including promising cell therapy surveillance data), and a clean balance sheet with active share repurchases. Near-term headwinds include one-time compensation charges, guidance conservatism, reimbursement risk from a draft LCD and a PLA reimbursement reduction, and planned investments (Epic/LIMS) that will pressure near-term EBITDA. Overall, the company presents positive operational momentum and a clear plan to invest for future scaled growth while prudently modeling reimbursement and volume risks into 2026 guidance.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and FY Revenue Growth
Q4 2025 total revenue of $108.4M, up 25% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $379.8M, up 14% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Decline and One-Time Compensation Impact
Reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA $6.5M, a 34% decrease YoY. Q4 non-GAAP operating expenses included a $6.7M one-time cash bonus in lieu of equity for non-executives which weighed on EBITDA.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 and FY Revenue Growth
Q4 2025 total revenue of $108.4M, up 25% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $379.8M, up 14% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CareDx's 2026 guidance calls for full‑year revenue of $420M–$444M (midpoint $432M, ~14% YoY), Testing Services revenue of $306M–$326M with testing volumes of 220k–228k tests (midpoint 224k, ~12% YoY) and a blended revenue per test starting near $1,400 in Q1 and averaging in the low $1,400s (mid ≈ $1,410 ± $20); the company models a $15M full‑year negative impact if the draft LCD is finalized but has baked a $7.5M (half‑year) hit into guidance assuming mid‑year finalization. They expect ~$5M of prior‑period collections in 2026 ( ~$3M in Q1, ~$2M thereafter), noted the 1/1/26 PLA cut to AlloSure Kidney from $2,841 to $2,753 (≈4%), and forecast non‑GAAP gross margin of ~69%–71% (mid ~70%). OpEx is expected to average about $68M/quarter ± $1M (≈63% of revenue ±1%), which includes ≈$10M of strategic enterprise system investments (Epic/LIMS), and full‑year adjusted EBITDA is guided to $30M–$45M (includes a $9M annual depreciation add‑back) with Q1 EBITDA expected in the high single digits; the company finished 2025 with ~$201.4M cash and no debt.CareDx Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 379.81M | 333.79M | 280.32M | 321.79M | 296.40M |
| Gross Profit | 254.43M | 224.16M | 178.32M | 209.58M | 199.01M |
| EBITDA | -667.00K | -33.99M | -84.92M | -61.22M | -17.84M |
| Net Income | -21.35M | 52.55M | -190.28M | -76.61M | -30.66M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 413.23M | 491.05M | 466.83M | 542.99M | 566.62M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 177.21M | 260.65M | 235.42M | 293.09M | 348.49M |
| Total Debt | 19.68M | 28.37M | 34.22M | 39.00M | 21.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 110.13M | 112.62M | 205.50M | 112.08M | 100.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 303.10M | 378.43M | 261.33M | 430.91M | 465.88M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 36.12M | 31.56M | -27.63M | -49.57M | -39.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 42.03M | 38.05M | -18.39M | -25.24M | -19.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.16M | -483.00K | 40.45M | -228.50M | 47.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -93.39M | -5.61M | -29.61M | -4.54M | 185.64M |
CareDx Technical Analysis
Positive
17.82
Price Trends
18.68
Negative
18.65
Negative
16.73
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.23
Negative
49.69
Neutral
64.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.39, below the 50-day MA of 18.68, and above the 200-day MA of 16.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CDNA.
CareDx Risk Analysis
CareDx disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CareDx reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CareDx Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $735.25M | -46.67 | -5.27% | ― | 10.15% | -295.52% | |
56 Neutral | $912.68M | -47.01 | -6.47% | ― | 14.46% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $1.04B | -2.79 | -12.64% | ― | 10.10% | -44.29% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $512.81M | -13.36 | -5.40% | ― | 13.60% | 74.64% | |
49 Neutral | $688.48M | -7.71 | -39.13% | ― | -21.02% | 47.74% | |
48 Neutral | $436.68M | -1.57 | -79.81% | ― | 0.21% | -233.51% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
CDNA
CareDx
17.82
0.86
5.07%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
4.67
-3.06
-39.59%
NEO
NeoGenomics
8.02
-0.18
-2.20%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
16.42
-0.63
-3.70%
PSNL
Personalis
6.58
3.58
119.33%
CSTL
Castle Biosciences
24.73
6.13
32.96%
CareDx Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
CareDx Names New CFO Amid Strong Q4 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
CareDx reported on February 24, 2026 that its board appointed Keith Kennedy as chief financial officer and chief operating officer effective February 26, 2026, also naming him principal financial and accounting officer. Kennedy, a seasoned finance...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.