CareDx (CDNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $883.61M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: 14.46%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 644
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 51,432,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 957,989
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,123,784
• PEG Ratio: -0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -35.80
• 1Y Price Target: $22.00
• Price Target Upside: 46.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.36
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $373.38M

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $17.50 ▲(16.59% Upside)

CareDx's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's robust revenue growth, improved profitability, and strategic initiatives are complemented by a favorable valuation. Technical indicators support a bullish outlook, although operational efficiency and market conditions for transplant volumes require attention.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates expanding market reach and effective product adoption, supporting long-term business sustainability and competitive positioning.

Cash Flow Generation

Robust cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and supporting ongoing operations, crucial for sustained growth.

Product Innovation

Innovative product launches like HistoMap Kidney strengthen CareDx's market position and expand its diagnostic portfolio, driving future revenue streams.

Negative Factors

Operational Efficiency Challenges

Operational inefficiencies can hinder profitability and limit the company's ability to scale effectively, impacting long-term financial health.

Flat Transplant Volumes

Flat transplant volumes may limit growth potential in core markets, affecting revenue expansion and market share in the transplant diagnostics sector.

IOTA Program Challenges

Challenges with the IOTA program could delay expected growth in kidney transplant diagnostics, impacting strategic objectives and revenue forecasts.

CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareDx, Inc. is a leading precision medicine company focused on transplant medicine, specializing in developing and providing diagnostic solutions for organ transplant patients. The company operates primarily in the healthcare sector, offering products and services that enhance patient care and improve transplant outcomes. CareDx's core products include AlloSure, a non-invasive blood test that assesses kidney transplant rejection, and AlloMap, a gene expression profiling test used to monitor heart transplant patients.

How the Company Makes Money

CareDx generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic testing services. The company charges healthcare providers for its proprietary tests, which are ordered for transplant patients to assess organ health and rejection risk. Key revenue streams include direct sales of testing services, which are often reimbursed by insurance providers, and partnerships with transplant centers and healthcare organizations that integrate CareDx's services into their patient care protocols. Additionally, CareDx may engage in collaborations with pharmaceutical companies for clinical trials and research, further diversifying its revenue opportunities.

CareDx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CareDx's financial performance is mixed. The company is profitable with a positive net profit margin, but revenue and cash flow growth are declining. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but the decrease in equity ratio could pose a risk. Operational challenges are evident in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, requiring attention to improve efficiency.

Income Statement

CareDx's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a positive net profit margin of 15.16% in the TTM, indicating profitability. However, revenue growth is negative at -1.62%, suggesting a decline in sales. The gross profit margin has decreased from previous years, and EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating low leverage. Return on equity is positive at 15.22%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio has decreased over time, which may indicate a reduction in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth at -28.93% in the TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.19, suggesting limited cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.01, indicating that the company is generating sufficient free cash flow relative to its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	358.00M	333.79M	280.32M	321.79M	296.40M	192.19M
Gross Profit	241.44M	224.16M	178.32M	209.58M	199.01M	129.08M
EBITDA	-17.17M	-33.99M	-84.92M	-61.22M	-17.84M	-8.17M
Net Income	60.76M	52.55M	-190.28M	-76.61M	-30.66M	-18.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	432.31M	491.05M	466.83M	542.99M	566.62M	368.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	194.22M	260.65M	235.42M	293.09M	348.49M	224.70M
Total Debt	27.64M	28.37M	34.22M	39.00M	21.35M	18.10M
Total Liabilities	121.17M	112.62M	205.50M	112.08M	100.75M	90.83M
Stockholders Equity	311.14M	378.43M	261.33M	430.91M	465.88M	277.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	37.09M	31.56M	-27.63M	-49.57M	-39.55M	23.07M
Operating Cash Flow	42.56M	38.05M	-18.39M	-25.24M	-19.29M	33.43M
Investing Cash Flow	34.96M	-483.00K	40.45M	-228.50M	47.71M	-100.39M
Financing Cash Flow	-81.83M	-5.61M	-29.61M	-4.54M	185.64M	163.15M

CareDx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.24, below the 50-day MA of 15.37, and below the 200-day MA of 16.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CDNA.

CareDx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDNA	77 Outperform	$883.61M	14.41	24.11%	―	14.46%	―
FLGT	60 Neutral	$914.39M	―	-3.80%	―	13.60%	74.64%
CSTL	60 Neutral	$1.17B	―	-2.69%	―	10.15%	-295.52%
PSNL	57 Neutral	$952.87M	―	-43.69%	―	-21.02%	47.74%
NEO	55 Neutral	$1.57B	―	-12.99%	―	10.10%	-44.29%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
MYGN	49 Neutral	$711.22M	―	-72.52%	―	0.21%	-233.51%

CareDx Corporate Events

CareDx Inc. Reports Strong Q3 Earnings Growth

In the recent earnings call, CareDx Inc. reported a robust quarter marked by substantial revenue growth and operational enhancements. The company celebrated successful product launches and strategic initiatives, although it acknowledged the flat market conditions for transplant volumes and the unrealized impact from the IOTA program.

CareDx Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

CareDx, Inc., headquartered in Brisbane, California, is a precision medicine company specializing in the development and commercialization of healthcare solutions for transplant patients and caregivers, offering genomics-based information and digital healthcare solutions.

CareDx Reports Strong Q3 Financial Results

On November 4, 2025, CareDx announced its third-quarter financial results, highlighting a 21% year-over-year revenue increase to $100.1 million, driven by a 19% rise in testing services revenue and a 13% growth in testing services volume. The company reported a GAAP net income of $1.7 million, a significant improvement from the previous year’s loss, and raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $372 million to $376 million. Recent strategic moves include appointing new leadership, publishing studies, and launching innovative products, reinforcing its market leadership in transplant care.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.

CareDx Appoints Suresh Gunasekaran as New Director

On October 22, 2025, CareDx, Inc. appointed Suresh Gunasekaran as a Class II director. Mr. Gunasekaran, with extensive experience in healthcare leadership, will receive compensation in cash and restricted stock units as part of his non-employee director role. This appointment may enhance CareDx’s strategic direction and governance with Mr. Gunasekaran’s expertise.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.