Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
NASDAQ:ERIE
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Erie Indemnity Company
(NASDAQ:ERIE)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$275.00
▼(-13.09% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/24/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (high profitability, near-zero leverage, and solid free cash flow). This is partially offset by weak technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings call takeaways are supportive due to improved underwriting results, but the deceleration in growth and weakening retention cap the upside; valuation support comes mainly from the dividend yield given the missing/invalid P/E.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Erie’s near-zero leverage and meaningful equity growth materially lower financial risk and preserve strategic optionality. This capital conservatism supports steady dividends, opportunistic buybacks or investments, and provides resilience through underwriting cycles and macro stress over the next several months.
Negative Factors
Slowing premium growth
The sharp deceleration in DWP growth signals weaker top-line momentum in a structurally competitive market. Since Indemnity’s management fee is tied to Exchange premium volume, prolonged slower premium growth would constrain fee revenue expansion and limit operating leverage over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Erie’s near-zero leverage and meaningful equity growth materially lower financial risk and preserve strategic optionality. This capital conservatism supports steady dividends, opportunistic buybacks or investments, and provides resilience through underwriting cycles and macro stress over the next several months.
Read all positive factors
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.01B
Dividend Yield1.9%
Average Volume (3M)239.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.4
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth4.80%
EPS Growth-6.97%
CountryUS
Employees6,715
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.88
Shares Outstanding46,189,068
10 Day Avg. Volume208,803
30 Day Avg. Volume239,169
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.50
Price to Book (P/B)5.85
Price to Sales (P/S)3.28
P/FCF Ratio23.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$232.00Price Target Upside-26.68% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)13.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.26B
Erie Indemnity Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. The company provides sales, underwriting, policy issuance, and renewal services for the policyholders on behalf...
How the Company Makes Money
Erie Indemnity primarily makes money by acting as the attorney-in-fact and service provider to the Erie Insurance Exchange. Its core revenue stream is a management/attorney-in-fact fee that is based on a portion of the premiums written by the exch...
Erie Indemnity Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed cautious optimism: meaningful improvements in underwriting profitability (combined ratio under 100), higher net and operating income, stable policyholder surplus, and tangible progress on product, technology and AI initiatives. However, growth metrics showed meaningful deceleration (DWP growth slowed to 3.6%), policies in force and retention declined, and commission and personnel costs increased. Management framed the results as early signs of a turnaround while noting the competitive landscape and remaining work to restore balanced growth.Positive Updates
Improved Underwriting Profitability
Exchange combined ratio improved to 99.4% in Q1 2026 from 108.1% in Q1 2025 (≈8.7 percentage-point improvement), driven by ~3 points of improvement in non-catastrophe losses and almost 7 points of improvement in catastrophe losses as Q1 2025 included the company’s costliest weather event.
Negative Updates
Slowing Top-Line Growth
Direct written premium growth decelerated to 3.6% in Q1 2026 from 13.9% in Q1 2025, reflecting a more challenging competitive environment after significant industry-wide rate increases.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Underwriting Profitability
Exchange combined ratio improved to 99.4% in Q1 2026 from 108.1% in Q1 2025 (≈8.7 percentage-point improvement), driven by ~3 points of improvement in non-catastrophe losses and almost 7 points of improvement in catastrophe losses as Q1 2025 included the company’s costliest weather event.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided toward continued measured progress in 2026, highlighting product and technology rollouts and capital discipline alongside key metrics: direct written premium grew 3.6% in Q1 2026 (vs. 13.9% in Q1 2025), average premium per policy +8.1%, policies in force -1.7%, retention 88%; Exchange combined ratio improved to 99.4% (from 108.1%), with non‑cat loss improvement of ~3 points and catastrophe losses ~7 points better year over year; policyholder surplus was $10.1 billion (flat with Dec‑2025); Indemnity net income nearly $151 million ($2.88 diluted EPS) vs. $138 million ($2.65), operating income ~ $167 million (up ~10% from $151M); management fee revenue +$31M (4.2%), overall expense growth ~2.8%, commission expense +6.4% to $465M, noncommission expenses -5.6% to $180M, investment income $22M (vs. $20M), and ~$68M of dividends paid in the first three months — operational guidance included expanding Erie Secure Auto into four more states this quarter (after pilots/rollouts in OH, VA, WV), completing Business Auto 2.0 (one state remaining: NY), launching a new online quote platform into MD/PA/VA/WV next month, migrating >50% of systems to modern platforms, and broader, governed AI deployment (ChatGPT Enterprise available company‑wide) to improve productivity and growth.Erie Indemnity Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
93
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.33B | 4.07B | 3.80B | 3.27B | 2.84B | 2.63B |
| Gross Profit | 931.08M | 640.80M | 676.46M | 520.26M | 376.21M | 318.10M |
| EBITDA | 759.41M | 787.39M | 766.34M | 600.23M | 428.41M | 351.22M |
| Net Income | 571.39M | 559.34M | 600.31M | 446.06M | 298.57M | 297.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.38B | 3.36B | 2.89B | 2.47B | 2.24B | 2.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 338.35M | 379.78M | 319.44M | 226.07M | 166.36M | 222.10M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.51M | 0.00 | 122.50M | 93.83M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 1.07B | 901.36M | 809.13M | 791.05M | 899.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.35B | 2.28B | 1.99B | 1.66B | 1.45B | 1.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 537.00M | 570.97M | 486.40M | 288.56M | 298.95M | 253.99M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 660.43M | 686.66M | 611.25M | 381.20M | 366.15M | 402.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -430.29M | -439.33M | -226.91M | -157.56M | -106.92M | -185.49M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -221.90M | -199.85M | -230.00M | -221.68M | -300.84M | -194.84M |
Erie Indemnity Company Technical Analysis
Negative
316.42
Price Trends
256.88
Negative
269.84
Negative
297.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.78
Negative
45.50
Neutral
12.78
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ERIE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 316.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 246.79, above the 50-day MA of 256.88, and above the 200-day MA of 297.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.78 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ERIE.
Erie Indemnity Company Risk Analysis
Erie Indemnity Company disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Erie Indemnity Company reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Erie Indemnity Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $66.74B | 14.27 | 45.99% | 0.82% | 7.51% | 55.21% | |
71 Outperform | $10.01B | 19.44 | 25.03% | 1.90% | 4.80% | -6.97% | |
69 Neutral | $53.51B | ― | 6.50% | 1.01% | 25.34% | -5.29% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $19.53B | 12.74 | 9.35% | 0.77% | 29.22% | -2.51% | |
66 Neutral | $24.15B | 23.29 | 20.10% | 1.14% | 0.92% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company
214.96
-139.13
-39.29%
AON
Aon
311.51
-40.78
-11.57%
AJG
Arthur J Gallagher & Co
208.11
-123.47
-37.24%
BRO
Brown & Brown
57.63
-51.96
-47.42%
WTW
Willis Towers Watson
256.34
-49.32
-16.14%
Erie Indemnity Company Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Erie Indemnity Announces Leadership Transition and Dividend Approval
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
Erie Indemnity Company reported that at its 101st Annual Meeting of Shareholders on April 21, 2026, all 10 incumbent directors and one new director were unanimously re-elected by holders of Class B common stock, and shareholders also unanimously a...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Erie Indemnity Earnings Hit by One-Time Foundation Charge
Negative
Feb 23, 2026
Erie Indemnity Company reported on February 23, 2026, that full-year 2025 net income declined to $559.3 million, or $10.69 per diluted share, from $600.3 million, or $11.48 per share, in 2024, with fourth-quarter 2025 net income falling to $63.4 m...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Erie Indemnity Announces CEO Retirement and Leadership Transition
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Erie Insurance announced on February 20, 2026, that president and CEO Tim NeCastro will retire on December 31, 2026, concluding a 30-year career with the company and a decade in the top role. The board will launch an immediate search for his succe...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.