Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.06B
• Dividend Yield: 1.9%
• Average Volume (3M): 149.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.33
• Revenue Growth: 9.64%
• EPS Growth: 15.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,715
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Brokers
• EPS (TTM): 3.50
• Shares Outstanding: 46,189,068
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 111,553
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 149,294
• PEG Ratio: 0.92
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.93
• P/FCF Ratio: 39.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.47
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $310.00 ▼(-2.03% Downside)

The score is led by strong fundamentals—improving profitability, steady growth, a very conservative balance sheet, and solid free cash flow. It is held back primarily by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend, while earnings-call commentary shows meaningful underwriting improvement but ongoing weather/severity risks and a recent rating adjustment.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained premium growth indicates strong demand for ERIE's insurance products, enhancing revenue stability and market position.

Financial Health

A strong balance sheet with high equity and no debt enhances ERIE's financial resilience and ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Management Fee Revenue

Growth in management fee revenue underscores ERIE's effective operations and ability to capitalize on its role in the insurance exchange.

Negative Factors

Cybersecurity Incident

A cybersecurity incident, despite no data breach, highlights vulnerabilities that could impact trust and operational continuity.

Increased Operating Costs

Rising operating costs, driven by higher commissions and IT expenses, could pressure margins and reduce profitability.

Weather-Related Losses

Increased weather-related losses elevate the combined ratio, potentially impacting underwriting profitability and financial results.

Erie Indemnity Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. The company provides sales, underwriting, policy issuance, and renewal services for the policyholders on behalf of the Erie Insurance Exchange. It also offers sales related services, including agent compensation, and sales and advertising support services; and underwriting services comprise underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. Erie Indemnity Company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Erie Indemnity Company generates revenue primarily through its management fee, which is a percentage of the premiums collected by the Erie Insurance Exchange. This fee is charged for managing the exchange's underwriting operations and claims management. In addition to management fees, ERIE earns income from investment activities, where it invests the premiums received before claims are paid out. The company also benefits from its strong partnerships with independent agents, which help drive policy sales and enhance customer reach. Furthermore, ERIE's focus on customer retention and satisfaction contributes to a stable revenue stream, as long-term policyholders renew their insurance coverage.

Erie Indemnity Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and improving profitability (TTM net margin ~15.6% and EBIT margin ~18.6%) alongside steady revenue growth. Balance sheet is very conservative with near-zero leverage and consistently high ROE (~30%). Cash generation is solid with strong FCF, though cash-flow growth has been somewhat volatile and operating cash flow has recently trailed net income.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong and improving: net margin is ~15.6% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) vs ~10.5% in 2022, with solid operating profitability (EBIT margin ~18.6% TTM). Growth has been consistently positive (revenue up ~16.7% in 2024 and ~7.7% in TTM). The main watch-out is some variability in reported gross profitability across years, suggesting margin mix/noise in the gross profit line, though overall earnings power remains robust.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet is very conservative with essentially no leverage (debt-to-equity near zero in 2024 and 0.0 in TTM), which reduces financial risk and adds flexibility. Returns on equity are consistently high (~30% in both 2024 and TTM), indicating strong capital efficiency. The key weakness is that with minimal debt, future growth is more reliant on operating performance and capital generation rather than balance-sheet leverage (not a risk, but a limiter).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is healthy: free cash flow is strong ($577M TTM) and generally tracks earnings well (free cash flow is ~81% of net income TTM). Free cash flow growth is positive in TTM and 2024, but it has shown some year-to-year volatility (declines in 2021 and 2023). Also, operating cash flow is somewhat below net income in recent periods (about ~0.79x TTM), which is worth monitoring even though overall conversion remains solid.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.28B	3.80B	3.27B	2.84B	2.63B	2.54B
Gross Profit	964.12M	676.46M	520.26M	376.21M	318.10M	338.16M
EBITDA	815.79M	766.34M	600.23M	428.41M	351.22M	357.72M
Net Income	647.98M	600.31M	446.06M	298.57M	297.86M	293.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.32B	2.89B	2.47B	2.24B	2.24B	2.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	628.38M	319.44M	226.07M	166.36M	222.10M	178.94M
Total Debt	0.00	7.51M	0.00	122.50M	93.83M	95.86M
Total Liabilities	1.02B	901.36M	809.13M	791.05M	899.58M	929.07M
Stockholders Equity	2.31B	1.99B	1.66B	1.45B	1.34B	1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	576.99M	486.40M	288.56M	298.95M	253.99M	287.07M
Operating Cash Flow	708.56M	611.25M	381.20M	366.15M	402.79M	342.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-157.56M	-226.91M	-157.56M	-106.92M	-185.49M	-243.22M
Financing Cash Flow	-203.66M	-230.00M	-221.68M	-300.84M	-194.84M	-274.87M

Erie Indemnity Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 316.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ERIE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 316.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 283.75, above the 50-day MA of 286.04, and below the 200-day MA of 333.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ERIE.

Erie Indemnity Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BRO	76 Outperform	$27.53B	24.20	10.47%	0.77%	17.87%	-9.35%
WTW	74 Outperform	$31.62B	15.76	27.79%	1.14%	―	―
ERIE	73 Outperform	$13.06B	22.81	30.44%	1.90%	9.64%	15.87%
MMC	71 Outperform	$91.13B	22.31	28.62%	1.85%	10.57%	2.57%
AJG	69 Neutral	$67.95B	42.10	9.05%	1.01%	17.17%	19.12%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
AON	66 Neutral	$75.40B	28.09	38.33%	0.82%	14.06%	5.52%

Erie Indemnity Company Corporate Events

Erie Indemnity Increases Shareholder Dividends by 7.1%

On December 9, 2025, Erie Indemnity Company‘s Board of Directors approved maintaining the management fee rate at 25% for the Erie Insurance Exchange and announced an increase in shareholder dividends. The regular quarterly cash dividend was raised by 7.1% for both Class A and Class B shares, with the next payout scheduled for January 21, 2026. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to shareholder value and financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (ERIE) stock is a Buy with a $385.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Erie Indemnity Company stock, see the ERIE Stock Forecast page.