Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)
NYSE:AJG
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Arthur J Gallagher & Co
(NYSE:AJG)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$219.00
▼(-1.18% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is anchored by strong financial performance (growth, margins, and cash conversion) and a positive, guidance-reaffirming earnings call with clear synergy/M&A drivers. These are tempered by weak current technical momentum (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and only moderately supportive valuation.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
AJG converts earnings to cash reliably, with FCF tracking net income at ~87–95%. This durable cash conversion supports repeatable uses: funding acquisitive growth, paying down or managing debt, funding buybacks and dividends, and absorbing cyclical insurance timing without structural liquidity strain.
Negative Factors
Property pricing headwind
A 7% decline in property renewal premiums signals persistent pricing pressure in cat‑exposed and larger risks. Because property is a meaningful revenue pool, sustained lower pricing can reduce organic growth, compress segment margins and limit ability to offset slower pricing via volume in the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
AJG converts earnings to cash reliably, with FCF tracking net income at ~87–95%. This durable cash conversion supports repeatable uses: funding acquisitive growth, paying down or managing debt, funding buybacks and dividends, and absorbing cyclical insurance timing without structural liquidity strain.
Read all positive factors
Arthur J Gallagher & Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where the company might need to improve or capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Analyzes revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where the company might need to improve or capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyArthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$52.31B
Dividend Yield1.01%
Average Volume (3M)1.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.9
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth25.34%
EPS Growth-5.29%
CountryUS
Employees72,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.27
Shares Outstanding256,900,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,244,732
30 Day Avg. Volume1,915,848
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.74
Price to Book (P/B)2.89
Price to Sales (P/S)4.83
P/FCF Ratio37.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$264.06Price Target Upside19.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)13.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.74B
Arthur J Gallagher & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance brokerage, consulting, third-party claims settlement, and administration services in the United States, Australia, Bermuda, Canada, the Caribbean, New Zealand, India, an...
How the Company Makes Money
AJG primarily makes money by earning fees and commissions for arranging and servicing insurance and reinsurance coverage and by charging fees for claims administration and related services. Its major revenue streams include: (1) Insurance brokerag...
Arthur J Gallagher & Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a strongly positive operational and financial tone: robust revenue growth driven by both organic expansion and M&A, sustained adjusted EBITDAC momentum (24 quarters of double-digit growth), productive AssuredPartners integration with sizable synergy potential, an active M&A pipeline and disciplined capital deployment (share repurchases). Identified headwinds—most notably property premium declines, some reinsurance pricing pressure, E&S property competitiveness and short-term comparability noise from interest income on acquisition funds—are acknowledged but portrayed as manageable within the company’s diversified portfolio and strategic initiatives (AI, productivity, cross-selling). Given the magnitude and breadth of positive results and confidence in outlook vs. the limited and contained lowlights, the overall tone is favorable.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth Driven by M&A and Organic
Total revenue growth of 28% in Q1 driven by a two-pronged strategy: organic growth of 5% and M&A contribution of 23% (notably AssuredPartners). Brokerage revenues up 30% (organic 5%) and Risk Management (Gallagher Bassett) revenues up 14% (organic 10%).
Negative Updates
Property Renewal Premium Pressure
Global retail property renewal premiums down 7% in Q1, with rate pressure most pronounced in cat-exposed and larger risks. Management flagged that property moderation is a meaningful headwind and noted Q2 typically sees the biggest property impact.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth Driven by M&A and Organic
Total revenue growth of 28% in Q1 driven by a two-pronged strategy: organic growth of 5% and M&A contribution of 23% (notably AssuredPartners). Brokerage revenues up 30% (organic 5%) and Risk Management (Gallagher Bassett) revenues up 14% (organic 10%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance, calling for full‑year organic growth of 6% (Q1 organic 5% overall; Brokerage organic 5% in Q1; Gallagher Bassett organic 10% in Q1), and expects underlying adjusted EBITDAC margin expansion of 40–60 basis points for the year (Q1 underlying expansion ~50 bps; GB adjusted EBITDAC margin up 130 bps); AssuredPartners synergies are targeted at ~$160 million annualized by end‑2026 and up to ~$300 million by early‑2028; they closed 9 tuck‑ins in Q1 (~$60 million estimated annualized revenue) and report a pipeline of >40 term sheets (~$400 million annualized), repurchased ~1.4 million shares for ~$310 million in the quarter, expect corporate cash taxes of ~10% of EBITDAC, and say they could have roughly $10 billion of capacity to fund M&A over the next two years (noting near‑term comparability noise from ~$143–$144 million of interest income on funds held for the AssuredPartners acquisition).Arthur J Gallagher & Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.97B | 13.94B | 11.55B | 10.07B | 8.55B | 8.21B |
| Gross Profit | 9.88B | 7.63B | 4.88B | 4.25B | 3.60B | 2.98B |
| EBITDA | 3.92B | 3.66B | 3.10B | 2.18B | 2.18B | 1.77B |
| Net Income | 1.61B | 1.49B | 1.46B | 969.50M | 1.11B | 906.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 78.30B | 70.67B | 64.26B | 51.62B | 38.36B | 33.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.41B | 1.40B | 14.99B | 971.50M | 738.40M | 402.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.14B | 14.00B | 13.49B | 8.32B | 6.42B | 6.59B |
| Total Liabilities | 54.50B | 47.32B | 44.08B | 40.80B | 29.17B | 24.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.77B | 23.32B | 20.15B | 10.78B | 9.14B | 8.51B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.86B | 1.78B | 2.44B | 1.84B | 1.21B | 1.58B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.02B | 1.93B | 2.58B | 2.03B | 1.39B | 1.70B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.84B | -15.88B | -1.59B | -3.29B | -1.00B | -3.43B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -112.00M | 1.72B | 13.05B | 2.87B | 212.60M | 2.68B |
Arthur J Gallagher & Co Technical Analysis
Negative
221.61
Price Trends
211.54
Negative
225.03
Negative
250.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.89
Negative
46.06
Neutral
73.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AJG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 221.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 205.00, above the 50-day MA of 211.54, and below the 200-day MA of 250.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AJG.
Arthur J Gallagher & Co Risk Analysis
Arthur J Gallagher & Co disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Arthur J Gallagher & Co reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Arthur J Gallagher & Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $68.59B | 14.27 | 45.09% | 0.82% | 7.51% | 55.21% | |
72 Outperform | $52.31B | 16.94 | 6.91% | 1.01% | 25.34% | -5.29% | |
71 Outperform | $10.34B | 19.44 | 25.03% | 1.90% | 4.80% | -6.97% | |
70 Outperform | $19.47B | 12.74 | 9.35% | 0.77% | 29.22% | -2.51% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $23.99B | 23.29 | 20.98% | 1.14% | 0.92% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
AJG
Arthur J Gallagher & Co
203.61
-128.58
-38.71%
AON
Aon
321.15
-30.98
-8.80%
BRO
Brown & Brown
57.43
-52.02
-47.53%
ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company
222.07
-120.04
-35.09%
WTW
Willis Towers Watson
254.05
-50.41
-16.56%
Arthur J Gallagher & Co Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Arthur J. Gallagher Stockholders Back Board, Pay, Auditor
Positive
May 13, 2026
Arthur J. Gallagher Co. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 12, 2026, at which shareholders elected all nine director nominees to serve until the 2027 Annual Meeting. The voting results showed broad support for the board slate, indicat...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Arthur J. Gallagher posts strong Q1 2026 financial results
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
Arthur J. Gallagher Co. reported strong first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, 2026, with Brokerage revenues before reimbursements rising to $4.29 billion from $3.31 billion a year earlier and adjusted Brokerage revenues at $4.29 billion versus ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Arthur J. Gallagher Schedules Investor Meeting, Updates 2026 Outlook
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher Co. announced it would host an investor meeting on March 17, 2026, with a live webcast and supporting presentation materials available via its investor relations website. The company also released an updated ...
Executive/Board Changes
Arthur J. Gallagher Announces Upcoming Board Member Retirement
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
Arthur J. Gallagher Co., a global insurance brokerage and risk management firm, announced that board member Sherry Barrat will retire from its Board of Directors, effective May 12, 2026, following the election of directors at the 2026 Annual Meet...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.