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Empire Petroleum (EP)
XASE:EP
US Market

Empire Petroleum (EP) AI Stock Analysis

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EP

Empire Petroleum

(NYSE MKT:EP)

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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(0.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/19/26
The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance (deeper losses, negative equity, and negative operating cash flow) and a weak technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Corporate events provide some offset via improved liquidity from recent financings, but valuation remains constrained by ongoing losses and no dividend support in the provided data.
Positive Factors
Rights offering fully subscribed
A fully subscribed $10M rights offering meaningfully strengthens the company’s cash runway and reduces near-term liquidity pressure. Durable capital inflow supports ongoing operations, funds development activity, and lowers the probability of distress-driven asset sales or forced fire-sales over coming quarters.
Extended secured credit facility
An extended, asset-secured revolver with a larger commitment and later maturity provides committed borrowing capacity and reduces near-term refinancing risk. Collateralized by producing assets, the facility supports capital spending and drilling programs and aligns liquidity with operating cash generation cycles.
Participation in Louisiana development program
Taking a 25% working interest in a multi-well program targets reserve additions and production growth from proven formations with strong reservoir pressure. Funding via equity issuance preserves cash, while successful wells would sustainably increase volumes and long-term revenue base.
Negative Factors
Negative stockholders' equity
Negative equity is a structural weakness that constrains financing options and increases refinancing risk. It can trigger covenant issues, raise borrowing costs, and limit access to unsecured capital, forcing reliance on dilutive equity or secured lending to fund operations and growth.
Negative operating cash flow
Persistent negative operating cash flow indicates the business cannot reliably self-fund capex or debt service. Over time this necessitates continual external financing, constrains reinvestment, and makes the firm more vulnerable to commodity-price shocks and credit-market tightening.
Deteriorating profitability and revenue decline
Material revenue decline and sharply worsening net margins reflect weak earnings quality and likely cost or impairment pressures. Sustained losses erode reserves and limit ability to invest in production, making recovery dependent on operational improvement or favorable commodity cycles.

Empire Petroleum (EP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Empire Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEmpire Petroleum (EP) is an independent oil and gas company primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties across various regions. The company operates in the upstream sector, focusing on optimizing its portfolio of assets to maximize efficiency and profitability. EP is committed to employing innovative technologies and practices to enhance recovery rates and reduce operational costs, while also adhering to environmental standards.
How the Company Makes MoneyEP primarily makes money by selling hydrocarbons it produces from its operated and non-operated oil and natural gas properties. Its key revenue stream is sales of crude oil and natural gas (and any associated NGLs where produced), typically priced using market-based benchmarks and realized pricing that reflects location differentials, product quality, and transportation/marketing arrangements. Revenue is generated on a per-unit basis (e.g., per barrel of oil and per Mcf of gas) multiplied by production volumes, so earnings are driven by commodity prices, production rates, operating costs (lifting costs), and decline/reinvestment dynamics. Additional material revenue streams, midstream/marketing income, hedging gains/losses, or specific long-term partnerships: null.

Empire Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow signals are weak: revenue declined and losses deepened materially, equity turned negative, and operating cash flow moved back to negative with persistently negative free cash flow. These factors indicate strained earnings quality, reduced financial flexibility, and less reliable self-funding capacity.
Income Statement
22
Negative
Profitability has deteriorated sharply: 2025 revenue fell ~8% year over year and losses deepened materially (net margin about -211% vs. ~-37% in 2024). While 2025 shows an unusually high gross margin, operating results remain heavily negative with large EBITDA and net losses, indicating significant cost/impairment pressure and weak earnings quality versus revenue.
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Financial position weakened meaningfully in 2025 with stockholders’ equity turning negative, which reduces flexibility and raises refinancing risk. Debt is moderate in absolute terms, but negative equity makes leverage look structurally stressed versus prior years (2024 showed positive equity and a low debt load relative to equity).
Cash Flow
24
Negative
Cash generation has become inconsistent: operating cash flow turned negative in 2025 after being positive in 2024, and free cash flow is negative in most years (including a very large outflow in 2024). This pattern suggests the business is not reliably self-funding and may need external capital or asset actions to sustain operations and investment.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Mar 2024Mar 2023Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue34.20M44.04M40.14M53.27M27.68M
Gross Profit-6.61M3.47M5.38M23.80M9.79M
EBITDA-6.82M-4.89M-8.08M10.02M-7.37M
Net Income-72.07M-16.20M-12.47M7.08M-18.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets65.87M123.87M92.62M71.55M50.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.19M2.25M7.79M11.94M3.61M
Total Debt15.35M11.88M6.68M8.00M9.44M
Total Liabilities70.48M61.10M57.66M48.31M40.26M
Stockholders Equity-4.61M62.77M34.96M23.24M9.83M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-4.00M-47.71M-26.88M4.61M-16.74M
Operating Cash Flow-3.95M6.16M-9.89M18.06M3.17M
Investing Cash Flow-4.61M-53.87M-14.77M-11.41M-24.72M
Financing Cash Flow7.50M42.17M20.50M1.69M25.00M

Empire Petroleum Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.00
Price Trends
50DMA
3.08
Negative
100DMA
3.12
Negative
200DMA
3.96
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Positive
RSI
44.36
Neutral
STOCH
11.91
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.16, below the 50-day MA of 3.08, and below the 200-day MA of 3.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EP.

Empire Petroleum Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$259.97M4.2010.56%-9.46%-144.89%
73
Outperform
$173.38M25.875.93%5.24%46.76%11.48%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
65
Neutral
$155.77M28.104.46%13.52%-2.23%-104.00%
60
Neutral
$318.28M-5.17-4.02%-15.44%-113.21%
56
Neutral
$285.92M-0.78-56.05%-1.58%-271.90%
43
Neutral
$108.69M-0.44-177.26%-15.13%17.34%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EP
Empire Petroleum
2.95
-2.87
-49.28%
EPM
Evolution Petroleum
4.45
-0.20
-4.30%
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
8.10
2.85
54.29%
AMPY
Amplify Energy
6.30
2.32
58.29%
REI
Ring Energy
1.52
0.28
22.58%
EPSN
Epsilon Energy
5.80
-1.15
-16.50%

Empire Petroleum Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Empire Petroleum Completes Fully Subscribed $10 Million Rights Offering
Positive
Mar 19, 2026

On March 19, 2026, Empire Petroleum announced that its previously launched rights offering, which expired on March 18, 2026, was fully subscribed and generated approximately $10 million in gross proceeds at a subscription price of $2.99 per share. Investor demand exceeded the securities available, so shareholders will receive their basic subscription rights while oversubscribed shares are allocated on a pro-rata basis, signaling solid shareholder support and bolstering the company’s capital base for its ongoing oil and gas strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Empire Petroleum Joins New Louisiana Development Program
Positive
Mar 18, 2026

On March 18, 2026, Empire Petroleum Corporation announced it has elected to participate in a new oil and natural gas development program in Louisiana, signaling a strategic move to deepen its operational footprint in that resource-rich region. The decision reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to expand its development portfolio, which could influence its future production profile and enhance its positioning within the domestic upstream energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Empire Petroleum Expands and Extends Share Rights Offering
Neutral
Feb 25, 2026

On February 25, 2026, Empire Petroleum Corporation announced it had extended the expiration of its registered rights offering to March 18, 2026 and increased the number of common shares available under the subscription rights to 3,344,482, raising the potential size of the offering to as much as $10 million. The company set the subscription price at $2.99 per share, with investors receiving one non-transferable right per share held on February 2, 2026, implying that shareholders must own at least 11 shares to buy one whole new share and can seek additional allocations through an over-subscription privilege, shaping how existing holders can maintain or increase their stakes.

Under the revised terms, a holder of 100 shares on the record date would be entitled to purchase nine new shares, as allocations are rounded down to the nearest whole share. The mechanics of the offer, including non-transferable rights and proration of over-subscriptions, underscore that the capital raise is aimed at existing shareholders and could modestly dilute non-participating investors while providing Empire Petroleum with incremental funding capacity of up to $10 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Empire Petroleum Completes $3 Million Convertible Note Financing
Positive
Feb 23, 2026

On February 19, 2026, Empire Petroleum Corporation issued a $3 million promissory note to investor Phil E. Mulacek, with all funds already advanced as of that date to repay existing debt and support general working capital. The unsecured note carries a 5.5% annual interest rate to its May 19, 2026 maturity, 9% thereafter on any unpaid principal, and can be prepaid by the company without penalty subject to notice and full cash payment of principal and interest.

Mulacek holds the option to convert some or all of the $3 million principal into Empire common shares at $2.99 per share, implying issuance of up to 1,003,344 shares if fully converted, with interest on converted amounts paid in cash at conversion. The company plans to secure NYSE American approval for listing the potential new shares, and the unregistered note issuance relied on a private placement exemption, underscoring Empire’s continued reliance on accredited investors for flexible, balance-sheet-focused financing.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Empire Petroleum Announces $6 Million Rights Offering
Positive
Feb 2, 2026

On February 2, 2026, Empire Petroleum Corporation launched a $6 million registered rights offering, granting each stockholder of record as of that date one non-transferable subscription right for every share of common stock owned, with each right allowing the purchase of 0.057 shares at $2.99 per share, subject to rounding to avoid fractional shares. The offering, which includes an oversubscription privilege for fully participating investors to acquire any unsubscribed shares on a pro-rata basis, is set to expire at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on February 27, 2026 (unless extended), providing the company with new equity capital while giving existing shareholders a time-limited opportunity to maintain or increase their ownership stakes on specified terms.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Sell with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Empire Petroleum Announces $6 Million Rights Offering Plan
Positive
Jan 21, 2026

On January 21, 2026, Empire Petroleum announced that its board set February 2, 2026, as the record date for a non-transferable subscription rights offering aimed at raising up to approximately $6.0 million in gross proceeds. Each shareholder of record will receive one right per common share, with each right allowing the purchase of 0.057 shares of common stock at a subscription price of $2.99 per whole share, potentially resulting in the issuance of about 2.0 million new shares if fully subscribed. The rights offering, which is expected to expire on February 27, 2026, includes an over-subscription privilege for shareholders who fully exercise their basic rights and may modestly dilute existing holdings while providing the company with additional capital to support its growth-focused strategy in its core oil and gas regions, subject to Empire’s ability to amend or terminate the offering before expiration.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Empire Petroleum extends and amends secured credit facility
Positive
Jan 5, 2026

On December 29, 2023, Empire North Dakota LLC and Empire ND Acquisition LLC, wholly owned subsidiaries of Empire Petroleum Corporation, entered into a secured revolving credit facility with Equity Bank with an initial commitment of $10 million, a maximum of $15 million, monthly commitment reductions beginning January 31, 2024, semiannual borrowing base redeterminations starting March 31, 2024, and a final maturity date initially set for December 29, 2026, with borrowings bearing interest at prime plus 1.50% (not less than 8.50%) and backed by liens on substantially all of the borrowers’ assets, including at least 80% of their producing oil and gas interests in North Dakota and Montana. The facility, guaranteed by Empire Petroleum, was subsequently expanded and extended through amendments: on November 18, 2024, the maximum revolver commitment was increased to $20 million and the monthly reduction stepped up to $250,000 from December 31, 2024; on June 18, 2025, Empire Texas Development LLC was added as a third borrower and its assets were pledged as collateral; and on December 29, 2025, the final maturity date was extended to December 29, 2028, a replacement note and updated security agreements were delivered, and the borrowers paid a $50,550 extension fee, collectively reinforcing the company’s access to secured debt capital for its oil and gas operations over a longer horizon.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 19, 2026