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Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE)
XASE:GTE

Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) AI Stock Analysis

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GTE

Gran Tierra Energy

(NYSE MKT:GTE)

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Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(6.38% Upside)
Gran Tierra Energy's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability. While the earnings call provided a positive outlook with production growth and improved financial flexibility, the high net debt and negative valuation metrics weigh heavily on the score. Technical indicators and corporate events provide some support but are not enough to offset the financial concerns.

Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Gran Tierra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGran Tierra Energy (GTE) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas reserves in Colombia and Ecuador. The company operates in the upstream sector of the energy industry, primarily engaged in the discovery and extraction of hydrocarbon resources. Gran Tierra's core products include crude oil and natural gas, which are sold into domestic and international markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyGran Tierra Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the prices of these commodities, which are influenced by global market dynamics, supply and demand factors, and geopolitical events. Key revenue streams include production from its operated and non-operated assets in Colombia and Ecuador, where the company has established a significant presence. Additionally, Gran Tierra may engage in joint ventures and partnerships that enhance its operational capabilities and reduce financial risks. The company also benefits from infrastructure investments that facilitate the transportation and sale of its products. Overall, effective cost management and strategic asset management play critical roles in optimizing the company's earnings.

Gran Tierra Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with significant production growth and financial flexibility improvements, despite facing temporary external production challenges and maintaining a high net debt level.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Increase
Gran Tierra averaged 42,685 BOE per day in Q3 2025, up roughly 30% from a year ago, driven by the Canadian acquisition and exploration success in Ecuador.
Record Production in Ecuador
Achieved record production of greater than 5,000 barrels per day in August and over 6,000 barrels per day in early October in Ecuador, with successful drilling operations like the Conejo A-1 exploration well.
Successful Waterflood Operations
The Cohembi waterflood project more than doubled production, increasing from 2,800 barrels to 6,700 barrels a day, with total field production recently reaching over 9,000 barrels per day.
Financial Flexibility and Cash Flow
Closed a new prepayment facility backed by Ecuadorian crude production for $150 million, with potential for an additional $50 million, and generated $48 million of operating cash flow, up 39% from Q2.
Negative Updates
Production Deferrals Due to External Events
Production was temporarily impacted by a landslide in Ecuador and trunk line repairs, leading to deferred barrels and forecasting the lower end of production guidance.
Net Debt Position
Ended the quarter with a net debt position of approximately $755 million, indicating ongoing financial leverage concerns.
Company Guidance
During the Gran Tierra Energy conference call for the third quarter of 2025, the company provided detailed guidance on their financial and operational strategies. Gran Tierra reported an average production of 42,685 BOE per day for the quarter, marking a 30% increase from the previous year, largely due to their Canadian acquisition and successful exploration in Ecuador. Current production stands at 45,200 barrels per day, with an anticipated exit rate between 47,000 and 50,000 BOE per day. Financially, the company ended the quarter with $48 million in operating cash flow, up 39% from the previous quarter, and a net debt position of approximately $755 million. They secured a new $150 million prepayment facility backed by Ecuadorian crude production, with potential for an additional $50 million, and increased their Canadian facility to $75 million. Capital investment for the quarter was $57 million, focusing on high-return projects. Looking ahead, Gran Tierra plans to shift focus towards free cash flow generation and deleveraging, with a decrease in capital expenditures expected in their 2026 budget to be released in December.

Gran Tierra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Gran Tierra Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.76
Price Trends
50DMA
4.17
Positive
100DMA
4.14
Positive
200DMA
4.44
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.09
Positive
RSI
49.74
Neutral
STOCH
33.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GTE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.30, below the 50-day MA of 4.17, and below the 200-day MA of 4.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GTE.

Gran Tierra Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$100.63M17.985.92%5.24%46.76%11.48%
72
Outperform
$171.45M3.548.80%-9.98%-19.48%
57
Neutral
$176.14M-11.34-1.91%-15.44%-113.21%
54
Neutral
$123.15M-572.58-0.19%13.52%-2.23%-104.00%
50
Neutral
$141.54M-1.71-21.91%-1.58%-271.90%
41
Neutral
$100.04M-6.07-31.43%-15.13%17.34%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
4.20
-3.04
-41.99%
EPM
Evolution Petroleum
3.55
-1.11
-23.82%
REI
Ring Energy
0.87
-0.39
-30.95%
EPSN
Epsilon Energy
4.77
-0.82
-14.67%
EP
Empire Petroleum
3.12
-4.22
-57.49%
IMPP
Imperial Petroleum
3.79
0.94
32.98%

Gran Tierra Energy Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Gran Tierra Energy Enters Major Oil Sale Agreement
Neutral
Oct 29, 2025

On October 24, 2025, Gran Tierra Energy Colombia GmbH, a subsidiary of Gran Tierra Energy Inc., entered into a crude oil sale and purchase agreement with Trafigura PTE Ltd., including a prepayment addendum. This agreement allows for an initial advance of up to $150 million and an additional advance of up to $50 million, with funds to be used for repaying borrowings, repurchasing senior notes, and funding capital expenditures in Ecuador. The agreement also includes financial covenants and an amendment to the existing Credit Agreement, reducing the borrowing base and requiring prepayment of outstanding loans.

Executive/Board Changes
Gran Tierra Energy Appoints New Independent Director
Positive
Oct 3, 2025

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. announced the appointment of Brad Virbitsky as an independent director to its Board of Directors, effective September 30, 2025. Mr. Virbitsky, a portfolio manager and partner at Equinox Partners LLC, brings extensive experience in global energy markets and corporate governance. His appointment is expected to enhance Gran Tierra’s strategic direction and long-term shareholder value.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 12, 2025