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Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE)
:GTE
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Gran Tierra Energy
(GTE)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(26.71% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, negative net margin, deteriorating free cash flow) and leverage/return concerns. Technicals are supportive due to strong uptrend signals, but overbought indicators temper that benefit. The earnings call adds some upside via production growth and a clearer focus on free cash flow and deleveraging, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings (negative P/E).
Positive Factors
Consistent production growth and record output
A sustained rise to ~48k boepd, driven by Ecuador discoveries and Canadian assets, builds a larger, more stable production base. Higher scale reduces per-barrel fixed costs, supports stronger operating cash flow potential and underpins durable FCF upside as development plans progress.
Operational uplift from waterflood projects
Successful waterfloods materially increase recovery from existing fields with relatively low incremental capital. That enhances reserve life, improves production sustainability and raises long-term netbacks, supporting repeatable, capital-efficient volume growth and margin resilience.
Improved financing flexibility via prepayment and credit facilities
Access to a $150M prepayment facility and expanded Canadian credit improves liquidity and reduces near-term refinancing pressure. This structural financing flexibility enables prioritized capex allocation to high-return projects and a credible shift toward free cash flow and deleveraging.
Negative Factors
Sharply negative revenue trend and weak profitability
A steep revenue decline and negative net margins indicate fundamental demand/pricing or portfolio issues that impair sustainable earnings. Persistent low profitability limits reinvestment, weakens returns to equity holders and constrains the company's ability to self-fund growth or deleveraging over the medium term.
Deteriorating free cash flow generation
Falling free cash flow undermines internal funding for development and debt reduction. Even with higher production, negative FCF trends restrict capacity to repay or refinance debt, force reliance on external funding, and limit the company's strategic optionality over the next several quarters.
High leverage and active debt restructuring
Launching an exchange to extend and secure existing notes signals material refinancing need and elevated leverage. High net debt and moving to secured instruments can raise effective borrowing costs and covenant risk, constraining capital allocation and increasing long-term financial vulnerability.
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$191.66M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)380.73K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth-1.58%
EPS Growth-271.90%
CountryUS
Employees431
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.57
Shares Outstanding35,295,753
10 Day Avg. Volume432,382
30 Day Avg. Volume380,731
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.47
Price to Book (P/B)0.56
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio45.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.73
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.13
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.51Price Target Upside7.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Gran Tierra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGran Tierra Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas properties in Colombia and Ecuador. As of December 31, 2021, it had total proved undeveloped reserves of 24.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in Colombia. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyGran Tierra Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the prices of these commodities, which are influenced by global market dynamics, supply and demand factors, and geopolitical events. Key revenue streams include production from its operated and non-operated assets in Colombia and Ecuador, where the company has established a significant presence. Additionally, Gran Tierra may engage in joint ventures and partnerships that enhance its operational capabilities and reduce financial risks. The company also benefits from infrastructure investments that facilitate the transportation and sale of its products. Overall, effective cost management and strategic asset management play critical roles in optimizing the company's earnings.
Gran Tierra Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with significant production growth and financial flexibility improvements, despite facing temporary external production challenges and maintaining a high net debt level.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Increase
Gran Tierra averaged 42,685 BOE per day in Q3 2025, up roughly 30% from a year ago, driven by the Canadian acquisition and exploration success in Ecuador.
Record Production in Ecuador
Achieved record production of greater than 5,000 barrels per day in August and over 6,000 barrels per day in early October in Ecuador, with successful drilling operations like the Conejo A-1 exploration well.
Successful Waterflood Operations
The Cohembi waterflood project more than doubled production, increasing from 2,800 barrels to 6,700 barrels a day, with total field production recently reaching over 9,000 barrels per day.
Financial Flexibility and Cash Flow
Closed a new prepayment facility backed by Ecuadorian crude production for $150 million, with potential for an additional $50 million, and generated $48 million of operating cash flow, up 39% from Q2.
Negative Updates
Production Deferrals Due to External Events
Production was temporarily impacted by a landslide in Ecuador and trunk line repairs, leading to deferred barrels and forecasting the lower end of production guidance.
Net Debt Position
Ended the quarter with a net debt position of approximately $755 million, indicating ongoing financial leverage concerns.
Company Guidance
During the Gran Tierra Energy conference call for the third quarter of 2025, the company provided detailed guidance on their financial and operational strategies. Gran Tierra reported an average production of 42,685 BOE per day for the quarter, marking a 30% increase from the previous year, largely due to their Canadian acquisition and successful exploration in Ecuador. Current production stands at 45,200 barrels per day, with an anticipated exit rate between 47,000 and 50,000 BOE per day. Financially, the company ended the quarter with $48 million in operating cash flow, up 39% from the previous quarter, and a net debt position of approximately $755 million. They secured a new $150 million prepayment facility backed by Ecuadorian crude production, with potential for an additional $50 million, and increased their Canadian facility to $75 million. Capital investment for the quarter was $57 million, focusing on high-return projects. Looking ahead, Gran Tierra plans to shift focus towards free cash flow generation and deleveraging, with a decrease in capital expenditures expected in their 2026 budget to be released in December.Gran Tierra Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are pressured: revenue growth is sharply negative (-34.1%) and profitability is weak (net margin -14.1%) despite a strong EBITDA margin (48.9%). Balance sheet leverage has improved (debt-to-equity 2.11) but returns remain poor (ROE -28.8%). Cash generation is deteriorating (free cash flow growth -35.7%), limiting flexibility.Income Statement
Gran Tierra Energy's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a sharp decline in revenue growth rate at -34.1%, indicating a substantial drop in sales. The gross profit margin has decreased to 13.4% from a high of 74.7% in 2022, reflecting increased costs or reduced pricing power. The net profit margin is negative at -14.1%, highlighting ongoing profitability issues. Despite a positive EBITDA margin of 48.9%, the overall profitability remains weak.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 2.11 from a high of 3.01 in 2020, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity is negative at -28.8% in the TTM, reflecting poor returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 22.1%, suggesting moderate financial stability but room for improvement.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates significant challenges. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -35.7% in the TTM, showing a decline in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 73.4, suggesting strong cash flow relative to earnings, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to profitability.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 619.56M | 621.85M | 636.96M | 711.39M | 473.72M | 237.84M |
| Gross Profit | 74.87M | 170.44M | 219.96M | 358.53M | 190.20M | -48.83M |
| EBITDA | 289.07M | 355.69M | 377.55M | 474.53M | 217.39M | -634.99M |
| Net Income | -86.18M | 3.22M | -6.29M | 139.03M | 42.48M | -777.97M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.66B | 1.65B | 1.33B | 1.34B | 1.19B | 1.20B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.09M | 104.52M | 63.29M | 128.01M | 26.50M | 62.44M |
| Total Debt | 773.63M | 762.21M | 567.24M | 594.39M | 657.69M | 778.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.29B | 1.24B | 929.89M | 918.04M | 887.03M | 944.69M |
| Stockholders Equity | 365.96M | 413.57M | 396.39M | 417.57M | 302.08M | 257.03M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -38.10M | 5.08M | 9.11M | 191.11M | 94.95M | -15.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 22.72M | 239.32M | 227.99M | 427.71M | 244.83M | 81.07M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -182.35M | -352.50M | -226.58M | -210.33M | -105.32M | -144.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -10.64M | 156.87M | -69.60M | -113.32M | -124.81M | 70.45M |
Gran Tierra Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
5.13
Price Trends
4.56
Positive
4.35
Positive
4.46
Positive
Market Momentum
0.34
Negative
53.30
Neutral
46.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GTE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.93, above the 50-day MA of 4.56, and above the 200-day MA of 4.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GTE.
Gran Tierra Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $149.17M | 18.81 | 5.92% | 5.24% | 46.76% | 11.48% | |
72 Outperform | $157.61M | 3.27 | 8.80% | ― | -9.98% | -19.48% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $246.60M | -14.88 | -1.91% | ― | -15.44% | -113.21% | |
51 Neutral | $137.90M | -643.55 | -0.19% | 13.52% | -2.23% | -104.00% | |
50 Neutral | $191.66M | -2.08 | -21.91% | ― | -1.58% | -271.90% | |
42 Neutral | $105.21M | -5.70 | -31.43% | ― | -15.13% | 17.34% |
* Energy Sector Average
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
5.13
-0.75
-12.76%
EPM
Evolution Petroleum
3.99
-0.90
-18.45%
REI
Ring Energy
1.14
-0.18
-13.64%
EPSN
Epsilon Energy
4.78
-1.20
-20.07%
EP
Empire Petroleum
2.93
-3.00
-50.56%
IMPP
Imperial Petroleum
3.50
0.47
15.51%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.