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Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE)
:GTE
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Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) AI Stock Analysis

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GTE

Gran Tierra Energy

(NYSE MKT:GTE)

Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(4.71% Upside)
Gran Tierra Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, high leverage, and negative cash flow growth. While the company has demonstrated operational efficiency and cost reductions, these strengths are overshadowed by ongoing financial pressures and a bearish technical outlook. The negative P/E ratio and absence of a dividend yield further weigh on the valuation.
Positive Factors
Geographical Diversification
Gran Tierra offers investors exposure to a diversified, high-growth portfolio that contains abundant opportunities to create value across Colombia, Ecuador and Canada.
Production Growth
Gran Tierra is expected to deliver a production CAGR of 14%, significantly outperforming the International E&P sector and US peers.
Valuation
Gran Tierra trades at a discount to North American peers on 2025E EV/EBITDA, indicating potential valuation upside.
Negative Factors
Earnings Targets
Internally funded 2025 budget to see Ecuador exploration commitments wrap-up with appraisal drills to add further validation; reiterate BUY, C$12.00 target.

Gran Tierra Energy (GTE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Gran Tierra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGran Tierra Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas properties in Colombia and Ecuador. As of December 31, 2021, it had total proved undeveloped reserves of 24.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in Colombia. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyGran Tierra Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates in regions with proven oil reserves and employs a strategy of exploring and developing these resources to increase production levels. Key revenue streams include direct sales of oil and gas to refineries and distribution companies, as well as potential export opportunities. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and contracts with local governments and other oil companies, which can enhance access to resources and reduce operational costs. Additionally, fluctuations in global oil prices significantly impact revenue, as higher prices typically lead to increased earnings from production.

Gran Tierra Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Gran Tierra Energy's second-quarter performance showcased strong operational results with record production and reduced costs. However, these positive operational metrics were offset by financial challenges, including reduced revenue due to lower Brent prices and ongoing net losses. While operational achievements were significant, financial pressures and external disruptions suggest a cautious outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production Achieved
Gran Tierra achieved record production of approximately 47,200 BOE per day, an increase of 1% from the prior quarter and 44% higher than Q2 2024.
Cost Reduction Success
Operating expenses decreased by 17% compared to Q2 2024 and 16% compared to the prior quarter, achieving the lowest operating cost per BOE since early 2022.
Improved Financial Metrics
The company reported a funds flow from operations of $54 million, up 17% from Q2 2024, and a net loss reduced to $13 million from $19 million in the prior quarter.
Successful Hedging Strategy
Gran Tierra gained $14 million from derivative hedging, with a robust hedging program covering a significant portion of production to manage price volatility.
Operational Excellence in Colombia
Successful drilling at Cohembi and Costayaco with reduced drilling costs and positive waterflood response led to increased production rates.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline Due to Lower Brent Pricing
Sales decreased by 8% from Q2 2024, primarily due to a 22% decrease in Brent pricing, despite higher sales volume.
Net Loss Continues
Gran Tierra reported a net loss of $13 million, although this was an improvement from the previous quarter's $19 million net loss.
Pipeline Disruptions
Operations were impacted by pipeline disruptions in Ecuador due to landslides, affecting production in early July.
Company Guidance
During the Gran Tierra Energy Second Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic initiatives. They achieved record production of approximately 47,200 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, marking a 1% increase from the previous quarter and a 44% rise compared to Q2 2024. Despite a 22% decrease in Brent pricing, sales reached $152 million, supported by a 43% increase in sales volume. Operating expenses per BOE decreased by 17% year-over-year and 16% from the previous quarter, attributed to reduced workover activities and lower lifting costs. The company reported a net loss of $13 million, an improvement from a $19 million loss in the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $77 million, with a 12-month trailing net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.3x. The company executed strategic initiatives to enhance liquidity, including signing a $200 million prepayment facility backed by crude oil deliveries. Their hedging program covered approximately 50% of South American and 60% of Canadian oil production for the second half of 2025, with plans to continue hedging in 2026. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $51 million, primarily focused on Colombian operations. Gran Tierra also announced the disposition of U.K. North Sea assets for $7.5 million, expected to close in Q3 2025.

Gran Tierra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Gran Tierra Energy faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, profitability issues, and high leverage. While operational efficiency remains a strength, as evidenced by a strong EBITDA margin, the company must address its cash flow and leverage concerns to stabilize its financial position. Strategic initiatives to enhance revenue growth and manage debt levels will be critical for future success.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Gran Tierra Energy's income statement reveals a challenging environment with declining revenue and profitability. The TTM data shows a negative net profit margin of -10.47%, indicating losses. Gross profit margin has also decreased significantly from previous years, reflecting cost pressures. Revenue growth is negative, suggesting a downward trend. However, the company maintains a relatively strong EBITDA margin of 52.64%, indicating operational efficiency despite the revenue decline.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.02, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's current unprofitability. However, the equity ratio stands at 22.98%, suggesting a reasonable level of equity financing relative to total assets. The company needs to manage its debt levels to improve financial stability.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates a negative free cash flow growth rate of -1237.04% in the TTM, highlighting cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.66, suggesting that operating cash flows are not fully covering net losses. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio further emphasizes cash flow issues. Improving cash generation is crucial for financial health.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue621.68M621.85M636.96M711.39M473.72M237.84M
Gross Profit109.10M170.44M219.96M358.53M190.20M-48.83M
EBITDA327.23M355.69M377.55M474.53M217.39M-634.99M
Net Income-65.10M3.22M-6.29M139.03M42.48M-777.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.70B1.65B1.33B1.34B1.19B1.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments61.03M104.52M63.29M128.01M26.50M62.44M
Total Debt786.52M762.21M567.24M594.39M657.69M778.07M
Total Liabilities1.31B1.24B929.89M918.04M887.03M944.69M
Stockholders Equity389.80M413.57M396.39M417.57M302.08M257.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-59.26M5.08M9.11M191.11M94.95M-15.21M
Operating Cash Flow211.21M239.32M227.99M427.71M244.83M81.07M
Investing Cash Flow-388.87M-352.50M-226.58M-210.33M-105.32M-144.92M
Financing Cash Flow125.19M156.87M-69.60M-113.32M-124.81M70.45M

Gran Tierra Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.82
Price Trends
50DMA
4.29
Negative
100DMA
4.56
Negative
200DMA
5.21
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.07
Negative
RSI
38.35
Neutral
STOCH
19.20
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GTE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.94, below the 50-day MA of 4.29, and below the 200-day MA of 5.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GTE.

Gran Tierra Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$206.54M2.878.08%-13.66%-4.85%
65
Neutral
$15.01B7.514.09%5.36%4.10%-61.80%
65
Neutral
11.84%61.88%
64
Neutral
$125.73M24.415.18%4.52%45.90%-2.29%
57
Neutral
$177.37M89.30-1.24%9.28%3.79%-131.01%
50
Neutral
$261.08M203.83%2.29%-11.53%-342.58%
47
Neutral
$139.05M21.67-15.60%-8.33%-213.31%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
3.82
-2.21
-36.65%
EPM
Evolution Petroleum
5.12
0.88
20.75%
PHX
PHX Minerals
4.35
1.10
33.85%
WTI
W&T Offshore
1.75
-0.22
-11.17%
REI
Ring Energy
0.98
-0.61
-38.36%
EPSN
Epsilon Energy
5.53
0.64
13.09%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 23, 2025