Evolution Petroleum (EPM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $122.46M
• Dividend Yield: 13.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 443.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -2.23%
• EPS Growth: -104.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 34,690,865
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 544,593
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 443,709
• PEG Ratio: -1.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.82
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.49
• 1Y Price Target: $4.50
• Price Target Upside: 26.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): <0.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $84.59M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(12.68% Upside)

Evolution Petroleum's overall stock score is influenced by financial challenges, including declining revenue and profitability margins, and increased leverage. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, while valuation metrics show a high dividend yield but negative P/E ratio. The earnings call highlighted mixed results, with strong natural gas performance but declining revenues and net income. The company's ability to maintain consistent dividends underscores financial stability, but addressing operational setbacks is crucial for future growth.

Positive Factors

Natural Gas Revenue Growth

The significant increase in natural gas revenue highlights the company's ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions, enhancing its revenue mix and providing a buffer against oil price volatility.

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition in the SCOOP/STACK region strengthens Evolution Petroleum's asset base, potentially increasing long-term cash flows and reducing reliance on existing fields.

Consistent Dividend Payout

The consistent dividend payout underscores financial stability and commitment to shareholder returns, which can enhance investor confidence and support stock valuation.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

The decline in revenue, primarily due to lower oil and NGL prices, indicates challenges in maintaining growth, which could impact profitability and investment capacity.

Net Income Decrease

The significant drop in net income reflects operational and market challenges, potentially affecting the company's ability to reinvest in growth and manage debt effectively.

Operational Challenges

Operational setbacks at the Delhi field highlight vulnerabilities in production stability, which could hinder output and revenue consistency if not addressed.

Evolution Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Evolution Petroleum Corporation, an oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, ownership, and management of oil and gas properties in the United States. The company holds interests in a CO2 enhanced oil recovery project in Louisiana's Delhi field. Its Delhi Holt-Bryant Unit covers an area of 13,636 acres located in Northeast Louisiana. The company also holds interests in the Hamilton Dome field covering 5,908 acres located in Wyoming; and Barnett Shale field covering an area of 123,777 acres located in North Texas. Evolution Petroleum Corporation was founded in 2003 and is based in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Evolution Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas extracted from its oil and gas properties. The company's revenue model is based on the production and sale of hydrocarbons, where it benefits from fluctuations in commodity prices. Key revenue streams include direct sales from its production activities and potential royalties from properties in which it holds an interest. Additionally, the company pursues strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its operational capabilities and reduce capital expenditures, contributing to its overall earnings. The effective management of production costs and the implementation of enhanced recovery techniques also play a critical role in optimizing profitability.

Evolution Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Evolution Petroleum faces challenges with declining revenue and profitability margins, coupled with increased leverage. While operational efficiency remains reasonable, the significant drop in free cash flow growth is concerning. The company needs to focus on improving revenue growth and managing debt levels to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -13.8% in the latest year. Gross profit margin has decreased to 16.9% from 22.1% the previous year, indicating pressure on profitability. Net profit margin is low at 1.7%, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. However, the company maintains a reasonable EBITDA margin of 31.3%, suggesting some operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.52, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity has decreased to 2.1%, reflecting lower profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, the increase in debt levels over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow growth is significantly negative at -61%, indicating challenges in generating free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.55, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.35, highlighting potential cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.23M	85.84M	85.88M	128.51M	108.93M	32.70M
Gross Profit	18.33M	14.51M	19.00M	55.83M	52.75M	11.16M
EBITDA	25.45M	26.83M	27.02M	60.02M	49.77M	-16.15M
Net Income	232.00K	1.47M	4.08M	35.22M	32.63M	-16.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	169.13M	160.25M	162.88M	132.65M	148.05M	77.97M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	714.00K	2.51M	6.45M	11.03M	8.28M	5.28M
Total Debt	0.00	37.57M	39.66M	184.00K	21.28M	4.08M
Total Liabilities	100.00M	88.44M	81.75M	40.56M	72.53M	23.37M
Stockholders Equity	69.13M	71.81M	81.13M	92.09M	75.51M	54.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-6.08M	11.41M	-26.90M	44.28M	-2.41M	-14.04M
Operating Cash Flow	33.24M	33.05M	22.73M	51.27M	52.46M	4.73M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.33M	-21.64M	-49.63M	-6.99M	-54.87M	-18.77M
Financing Cash Flow	-140.00K	-15.35M	22.32M	-41.53M	5.42M	-349.00K

Evolution Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EPM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.84, below the 50-day MA of 4.09, and below the 200-day MA of 4.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EPM.

Evolution Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMPP	72 Outperform	$171.00M	3.59	8.80%	―	-9.98%	-19.48%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
EPM	54 Neutral	$122.46M	-572.58	-0.19%	13.52%	-2.23%	-104.00%
AMPY	53 Neutral	$192.26M	-6.92	-6.90%	―	-9.46%	-144.89%
GTE	50 Neutral	$135.89M	-1.63	-21.91%	―	-1.58%	-271.90%
EP	41 Neutral	$105.26M	-5.58	-31.43%	―	-15.13%	17.34%

Evolution Petroleum Corporate Events

Evolution Petroleum Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting

On December 4, 2025, Evolution Petroleum Corporation held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders in Houston, Texas, where stockholders voted on four key proposals. The meeting resulted in the election of six directors for one-year terms, the ratification of Baker Tilly US, LLP as the independent accounting firm, and the approval of executive compensation and its annual advisory vote. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, impacting its leadership structure and financial oversight.

Evolution Petroleum Reports Q1 2026 Financial Results

Evolution Petroleum reported its fiscal first quarter 2026 results, highlighting a 2% decline in production to 7,315 BOEPD and a 3% decrease in revenues to $21.3 million compared to the previous year. Despite challenges such as lower crude prices and higher operating costs, the company declared a $0.12 per share dividend for the 14th consecutive quarter, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns. The company also completed its largest acquisition of mineral and royalty interests in the SCOOP/STACK area, which is expected to provide significant cash flow benefits without additional capital expenditures.

Evolution Petroleum Declares Q1 2026 Dividend

On September 11, 2025, Evolution Petroleum declared a $0.12 per share dividend for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, payable on September 30, 2025. The company reported a 176% increase in net income to $3.4 million for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 7% to $8.6 million. Evolution’s fiscal year 2025 saw near-record production levels and strategic acquisitions, including a $9 million TexMex acquisition and a $17 million minerals-only acquisition in the SCOOP/STACK. These moves have strengthened the company’s balance sheet and positioned it for sustained cash flow and shareholder returns.