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Evolution Petroleum
(NYSE MKT:EPM)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-3.15% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is held back primarily by weak TTM profitability and a soft technical setup (below key short-term moving averages). Offsetting these are a strong balance sheet with low leverage, positive TTM free cash flow, and a very high dividend yield, with the latest earnings call pointing to a potential near-term operational and cash flow rebound if Q4 normalization and catalysts materialize.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Extremely low leverage provides durable financial flexibility to fund workovers, selective acquisitions and dividends through commodity cycles. A conservative balance sheet reduces refinancing and covenant risk, preserving optionality during price volatility and downturns.
Negative Factors
Weak profitability & margin compression
The company has shifted from prior peak profitability to a TTM net loss and compressed margins. Persistently low margins reduce retained earnings, constrain reinvestment capacity and make returns highly sensitive to commodity pricing and regional differentials over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Extremely low leverage provides durable financial flexibility to fund workovers, selective acquisitions and dividends through commodity cycles. A conservative balance sheet reduces refinancing and covenant risk, preserving optionality during price volatility and downturns.
Read all positive factors
Evolution Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Breaks down income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.
Breaks down income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEvolution Petroleum (EPM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$131.65M
Dividend Yield13.52%
Average Volume (3M)370.52K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth-3.16%
EPS Growth-313.41%
CountryUS
Employees11
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.10
Shares Outstanding35,872,726
10 Day Avg. Volume423,273
30 Day Avg. Volume370,522
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.95
Price to Book (P/B)2.17
Price to Sales (P/S)1.82
P/FCF Ratio13.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.06Price Target Upside22.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$82.67M
Evolution Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Evolution Petroleum Corporation, an energy company, engages in the development, production, ownership, exploitation, and investment of onshore oil and gas properties in the United States. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Houston, Te...
How the Company Makes Money
Evolution Petroleum primarily makes money by selling its share of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) produced from the wells and fields in which it holds non-operated working interests. Revenue is recognized based on volumes so...
Evolution Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call outlines a quarter materially impacted by temporary, largely non‑operational headwinds — including severe weather, regional gas price dislocations and sizable non‑cash unrealized hedge losses — that drove an 11% revenue decline and a ~58% drop in adjusted EBITDA. Offsetting these negatives, the company highlighted operational resilience (flat production at ~6.7k BOE/day), progress on minerals and royalty acquisitions, targeted asset monetizations (~$3.3M post‑quarter), operating cost improvements, continued dividend consistency (51st consecutive quarter) and a set of near‑term catalysts (Tex Mex workovers, 23 Haynesville/Bossier wells, SCOOP/STACK wells coming online) that management expects will restore underlying earnings in fiscal Q4. Given the mix of meaningful near‑term financial deterioration but clear operational fixes and catalysts that management characterizes as one‑time/timing issues, the overall tone is cautiously constructive with a view that fundamentals should normalize in the next quarter.Positive Updates
Production Resilience and Near-Term Growth Catalysts
Production was essentially flat year‑over‑year at ~6.7 thousand BOE/day despite significant weather and downtime headwinds. Management reports roughly 300 net BOE/day of storm‑related downtime has been largely restored, Tex Mex workovers are expected to add ~100 net BOE/day by the end of fiscal Q4, and management expects 23 Haynesville/Bossier wells to be brought online and meaningfully contribute in fiscal Q4. Additionally, 12 gross SCOOP/STACK wells were on production (awaiting revenue data) that could add near‑term volumes once reported.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total revenues for fiscal Q3 were $20.2 million, down 11% year‑over‑year. The revenue decline was driven primarily by an ~11% decline in average realized equivalent prices and one‑time adjustments.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Resilience and Near-Term Growth Catalysts
Production was essentially flat year‑over‑year at ~6.7 thousand BOE/day despite significant weather and downtime headwinds. Management reports roughly 300 net BOE/day of storm‑related downtime has been largely restored, Tex Mex workovers are expected to add ~100 net BOE/day by the end of fiscal Q4, and management expects 23 Haynesville/Bossier wells to be brought online and meaningfully contribute in fiscal Q4. Additionally, 12 gross SCOOP/STACK wells were on production (awaiting revenue data) that could add near‑term volumes once reported.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance framed on the call: management expects fiscal Q4 to “look meaningfully different” with production normalization from the ~300 net BOE/day of winter-related downtime (Barnett ~160 BOE/day, Chavaroo ~30 BOE/day) and the $1.2 million prior‑period Delhi transportation adjustment behind them, supporting a rebound from the Q3 reported 6.7 thousand BOE/day; they expect Tex Mex workovers to add ~100 net BOE/day by the end of Q4, 23 Haynesville/Bossier wells to be brought online and meaningfully contribute in Q4, and multiple SCOOP/STACK royalty wells (12 gross on production, 7 gross in progress) to begin flowing into revenue/receipts as reporting catches up. Financially, the company said Q4 should show stronger cash flow relative to Q3 (Q3 revenue $20.2M, adjusted EBITDA $3.1M, net loss $8.9M / $0.26 per share, adjusted net loss $2.9M) as regional differentials at Jonah and Barnett normalize (Q3 realized price hit by ~ $3.39/BOE winter differential) and unrealized crude hedge losses ($7.6M in Q3) are likely to reverse; management also noted NGLs remain unhedged (full upside) and natural gas hedges are priced above current strip and should provide a near‑term benefit. Balance sheet/liquidity priorities remain intact (cash $2.6M, borrowings $56.5M, LOCs $0.8M, total liquidity ≈ $10.3M), and the board affirmed the $0.12/share quarterly dividend (51st consecutive; $4.3M paid in Q3) as sustainable under the expected Q4 cash flow trajectory.Evolution Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 83.24M | 85.84M | 85.88M | 128.51M | 108.93M | 32.70M |
| Gross Profit | 17.29M | 14.51M | 19.00M | 55.83M | 52.75M | 11.16M |
| EBITDA | 22.66M | 26.83M | 27.02M | 60.02M | 49.77M | -16.15M |
| Net Income | -3.63M | 1.47M | 4.08M | 35.22M | 32.63M | -16.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 169.76M | 160.25M | 162.88M | 132.65M | 148.05M | 77.97M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.62M | 2.51M | 6.45M | 11.03M | 8.28M | 5.28M |
| Total Debt | 369.00K | 37.57M | 39.66M | 184.00K | 21.28M | 4.08M |
| Total Liabilities | 111.35M | 88.44M | 81.75M | 40.56M | 72.53M | 23.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 58.41M | 71.81M | 81.13M | 92.09M | 75.51M | 54.59M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.86M | 11.41M | -26.90M | 44.28M | -2.41M | -14.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.18M | 33.05M | 22.73M | 51.27M | 52.46M | 4.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -38.82M | -21.64M | -49.63M | -6.99M | -54.87M | -18.77M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.66M | -15.35M | 22.32M | -41.53M | 5.42M | -349.00K |
Evolution Petroleum Technical Analysis
Negative
4.13
Price Trends
4.16
Negative
4.24
Negative
4.04
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Negative
37.09
Neutral
51.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EPM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.78, below the 50-day MA of 4.16, and above the 200-day MA of 4.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EPM.
Evolution Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $218.33M | 2.94 | 13.38% | ― | 37.77% | 13.02% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
56 Neutral | $131.65M | -34.79 | -5.44% | 13.52% | -3.16% | -313.41% | |
54 Neutral | $168.04M | 15.70 | 2.78% | ― | -21.23% | -41.25% | |
52 Neutral | $222.06M | -0.75 | -107.19% | ― | -4.90% | -2372.77% | |
47 Neutral | $107.84M | -1.21 | -277.83% | ― | -23.13% | -316.13% |
* Energy Sector Average
EPM
Evolution Petroleum
3.63
-0.70
-16.11%
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
6.25
1.65
35.87%
AMPY
Amplify Energy
3.94
0.55
16.22%
EP
Empire Petroleum
2.64
-2.68
-50.35%
IMPP
Imperial Petroleum
4.97
1.74
54.19%
Evolution Petroleum Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Evolution Petroleum Posts Q3 Loss But Maintains Dividend
Negative
May 12, 2026
Evolution Petroleum reported fiscal third quarter 2026 results on May 12, 2026, showing stable production at 6,700 BOEPD but an 11% year-over-year revenue decline to $20.2 million and a net loss of $8.9 million for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA dro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.