Evolution Petroleum (EPM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $137.03M
• Dividend Yield: 11.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 350.67K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: -2.23%
• EPS Growth: -104.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 34,690,865
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 382,938
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 350,668
• PEG Ratio: -1.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.82
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.49
• 1Y Price Target: $4.00
• Price Target Upside: 1.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): <0.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $83.78M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(1.27% Upside)

Evolution Petroleum's overall stock score reflects significant challenges in financial performance and technical analysis, with declining revenue and bearish market indicators. The high dividend yield and strategic acquisitions provide some positive aspects, but the negative P/E ratio and operational challenges weigh heavily on the score. The earnings call highlights mixed results, with strong natural gas performance but declining net income.

Positive Factors

Natural Gas Revenue Growth

The significant increase in natural gas prices and revenues indicates strong performance in this segment, which can provide a stable revenue stream and offset declines in other areas, supporting long-term growth.

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition in the SCOOP/STACK region enhances the company's asset base, providing access to high-quality reserves that can drive future production and revenue growth, strengthening its market position.

Consistent Dividend Payout

The consistent dividend payout reflects financial stability and a commitment to returning value to shareholders, which can enhance investor confidence and support long-term shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

The decline in revenue highlights challenges in maintaining sales levels, particularly due to fluctuating oil and NGL prices, which could impact profitability and growth if not addressed.

Net Income Decrease

The decrease in net income indicates pressure on profitability, which could affect the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives and maintain financial health over the long term.

Operational Challenges

Operational issues at the Delhi field, such as unscheduled repairs and environmental impacts, can disrupt production and increase costs, posing risks to consistent output and profitability.

Evolution Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Evolution Petroleum Corporation, an oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, ownership, and management of oil and gas properties in the United States. The company holds interests in a CO2 enhanced oil recovery project in Louisiana's Delhi field. Its Delhi Holt-Bryant Unit covers an area of 13,636 acres located in Northeast Louisiana. The company also holds interests in the Hamilton Dome field covering 5,908 acres located in Wyoming; and Barnett Shale field covering an area of 123,777 acres located in North Texas. Evolution Petroleum Corporation was founded in 2003 and is based in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Evolution Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas extracted from its oil and gas properties. The company's revenue model is based on the production and sale of hydrocarbons, where it benefits from fluctuations in commodity prices. Key revenue streams include direct sales from its production activities and potential royalties from properties in which it holds an interest. Additionally, the company pursues strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its operational capabilities and reduce capital expenditures, contributing to its overall earnings. The effective management of production costs and the implementation of enhanced recovery techniques also play a critical role in optimizing profitability.

Evolution Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Evolution Petroleum faces challenges with declining revenue and profitability margins, coupled with increased leverage. While operational efficiency remains reasonable, the significant drop in free cash flow growth is concerning. The company needs to focus on improving revenue growth and managing debt levels to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -13.8% in the latest year. Gross profit margin has decreased to 16.9% from 22.1% the previous year, indicating pressure on profitability. Net profit margin is low at 1.7%, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. However, the company maintains a reasonable EBITDA margin of 31.3%, suggesting some operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.52, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity has decreased to 2.1%, reflecting lower profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, the increase in debt levels over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow growth is significantly negative at -61%, indicating challenges in generating free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.55, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.35, highlighting potential cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.23M	85.84M	85.88M	128.51M	108.93M	32.70M
Gross Profit	18.33M	14.51M	19.00M	55.83M	52.75M	11.16M
EBITDA	25.45M	26.83M	27.02M	60.02M	49.77M	-16.15M
Net Income	232.00K	1.47M	4.08M	35.22M	32.63M	-16.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	169.13M	160.25M	162.88M	132.65M	148.05M	77.97M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	714.00K	2.51M	6.45M	11.03M	8.28M	5.28M
Total Debt	0.00	37.57M	39.66M	184.00K	21.28M	4.08M
Total Liabilities	100.00M	88.44M	81.75M	40.56M	72.53M	23.37M
Stockholders Equity	69.13M	71.81M	81.13M	92.09M	75.51M	54.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-6.08M	11.41M	-26.90M	44.28M	-2.41M	-14.04M
Operating Cash Flow	33.24M	33.05M	22.73M	51.27M	52.46M	4.73M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.33M	-21.64M	-49.63M	-6.99M	-54.87M	-18.77M
Financing Cash Flow	-140.00K	-15.35M	22.32M	-41.53M	5.42M	-349.00K

Evolution Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3.95
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EPM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.11, below the 50-day MA of 4.45, and below the 200-day MA of 4.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.87 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EPM.

Evolution Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMPP	72 Outperform	$145.65M	3.89	8.91%	―	-13.44%	-33.52%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
GTE	54 Neutral	$136.59M	-1.57	-21.91%	―	-1.58%	-271.90%
AMPY	53 Neutral	$234.36M	―	-6.90%	―	-9.46%	-144.89%
EPM	50 Neutral	$137.03M	―	-0.19%	11.06%	-2.23%	-104.00%
EP	41 Neutral	$105.61M	―	-31.43%	―	-15.13%	17.34%

Evolution Petroleum Corporate Events

Evolution Petroleum Reports Q1 2026 Financial Results

Evolution Petroleum reported its fiscal first quarter 2026 results, highlighting a 2% decline in production to 7,315 BOEPD and a 3% decrease in revenues to $21.3 million compared to the previous year. Despite challenges such as lower crude prices and higher operating costs, the company declared a $0.12 per share dividend for the 14th consecutive quarter, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns. The company also completed its largest acquisition of mineral and royalty interests in the SCOOP/STACK area, which is expected to provide significant cash flow benefits without additional capital expenditures.

The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Petroleum Reports Strong Fiscal 2025 Results

Evolution Petroleum Corporation is an independent energy company focused on maximizing shareholder returns through investments in onshore oil and natural gas properties in the U.S. The company aims to build a diversified portfolio through acquisitions, development opportunities, and production enhancements.

Evolution Petroleum’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth Amid Challenges

Evolution Petroleum’s recent earnings call presented a balanced sentiment, highlighting significant achievements in acquisitions, financial management, and operational execution, while acknowledging challenges in pricing and flat revenue. The strategic acquisitions and financial flexibility position the company well for future growth.

Evolution Petroleum Declares Q1 2026 Dividend

On September 11, 2025, Evolution Petroleum declared a $0.12 per share dividend for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, payable on September 30, 2025. The company reported a 176% increase in net income to $3.4 million for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 7% to $8.6 million. Evolution’s fiscal year 2025 saw near-record production levels and strategic acquisitions, including a $9 million TexMex acquisition and a $17 million minerals-only acquisition in the SCOOP/STACK. These moves have strengthened the company’s balance sheet and positioned it for sustained cash flow and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.