Evolution Petroleum (EPM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $153.59M
• Dividend Yield: 10.74%
• Average Volume (3M): 314.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 134.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: -0.04%
• EPS Growth: -71.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 34,359,146
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 340,285
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 314,185
• PEG Ratio: -1.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.82
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.28
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.20
• 1Y Price Target: $4.50
• Price Target Upside: -0.22% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(10.86% Upside)

Evolution Petroleum's overall stock score of 57 reflects a mix of robust cash flow and stable balance sheet, offset by profitability challenges and a negative P/E ratio. The recent earnings call indicates potential growth from acquisitions and natural gas revenue, but operational and financial setbacks remain concerns. Technical analysis shows mixed signals, with the stock trading near support levels but with bearish momentum.

Evolution Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Evolution Petroleum Corporation (EPM) is a Houston-based independent energy company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas reserves within the United States. The company primarily operates in the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry, specializing in enhancing the recovery of hydrocarbons through improved recovery techniques for mature oil and natural gas fields. EPM's core assets include interests in properties located in key basins across the country, with an emphasis on maximizing the value and longevity of existing reserves.

How the Company Makes Money

Evolution Petroleum Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its operated and non-operated properties. The company employs enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques to maximize production from mature fields, thereby increasing the recoverable reserves and extending the life of existing wells. Key revenue streams include the sale of produced hydrocarbons in the open market, as well as through long-term contracts with refiners, marketers, and distributors. EPM's earnings are influenced by market prices for oil and gas, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. Partnerships and joint ventures with other exploration and production companies also play a significant role in leveraging expertise and resources to optimize field development and production strategies.

Evolution Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Evolution Petroleum's financial health is mixed. Cash flow generation is robust with improved free cash flow, but income statement challenges with declining margins and negative net profitability are concerning. The balance sheet indicates stability with moderate leverage. A focus on improving revenue growth and profitability could enhance overall financial stability.

Income Statement

The company's TTM revenue has been relatively flat compared to the previous year with a marginal increase from $85.88M to $85.96M. Gross profit margin has decreased to 19.27% from 22.12% last year, and the net profit margin turned negative at -0.82% due to negative net income. EBITDA margin remains healthy at 27.46%, although EBIT margin has declined to 6.09%. Overall, the income statement reflects challenges in maintaining profitability amidst revenue stagnation.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.50, indicating manageable leverage. The equity ratio stands at 45.82%, reflecting a stable equity base. However, return on equity has turned negative, impacted by the negative net income. The company maintains a strong liquidity position with total assets of $156.39M against total liabilities of $84.73M. Stability is apparent, but profitability issues need attention.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has improved significantly, with a positive $29.26M compared to a negative $26.90M last year, showcasing effective cash flow management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high due to negative net income. Despite this, the company exhibits strong cash flow generation capabilities, helping offset income statement challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.84M	85.84M	85.88M	128.51M	108.93M	32.70M
Gross Profit	10.59M	0.00	19.00M	54.70M	52.22M	11.16M
EBITDA	17.29M	4.17M	27.02M	60.02M	49.77M	-16.15M
Net Income	1.47M	1.47M	4.08M	35.22M	32.63M	-16.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	160.25M	160.25M	162.88M	128.32M	148.05M	76.71M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.51M	2.51M	6.45M	11.03M	8.28M	5.28M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	39.66M	184.00K	21.25M	4.02M
Total Liabilities	88.44M	88.44M	81.75M	36.22M	72.53M	22.11M
Stockholders Equity	71.81M	71.81M	81.13M	92.09M	75.51M	54.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	29.22M	33.05M	-26.90M	44.28M	-2.41M	-14.04M
Operating Cash Flow	33.05M	33.05M	22.73M	51.27M	52.46M	4.73M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.64M	-21.64M	-49.63M	-6.99M	-54.87M	-18.77M
Financing Cash Flow	-15.35M	-15.35M	22.32M	-41.53M	5.42M	-349.43K

Evolution Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.51
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EPM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.75, below the 50-day MA of 4.91, and below the 200-day MA of 4.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EPM.

Evolution Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMPP	72 Outperform	$185.72M	4.70	8.91%	―	-13.44%	-33.52%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
EPM	57 Neutral	$153.59M	134.64	1.50%	10.74%	-0.04%	-71.98%
AMPY	53 Neutral	$171.17M	11.43	3.66%	―	-10.36%	-43.83%
GTE	47 Neutral	$132.69M	―	-16.06%	―	-5.53%	-216.84%
EP	42 Neutral	$121.90M	―	-30.24%	―	-10.49%	17.74%

Evolution Petroleum Corporate Events

Evolution Petroleum Gains from Barnett Shale Audit Results

On June 30, 2025, Evolution Petroleum Corporation entered into an amended and restated senior secured reserve-based credit agreement with MidFirst Bank, allowing for borrowings up to $200 million, with an initial borrowing base of $65 million, maturing on June 30, 2028. This facility supports working capital, acquisitions, and development of oil and gas properties, with specific financial covenants and hedging requirements. On July 1, 2025, Evolution announced the results of a joint interest audit of its Barnett Shale properties, revealing approximately $1.8 million owed to the company due to overcharges from the largest operator for the years 2022-2023. This adjustment will positively impact their fiscal year 2025 results, and further audits are expected to yield additional benefits.

The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Buy with a $8.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Petroleum Reports Q3 Loss, Declares Dividend

On May 13, 2025, Evolution Petroleum announced its fiscal third-quarter results, revealing a net loss of $2.2 million, despite a 30% increase in adjusted EBITDA from the previous quarter. The company declared a $0.12 per share dividend for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its 47th consecutive quarterly dividend, and highlighted the successful acquisition of non-operated oil and gas assets, which are expected to enhance future production.

The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Buy with a $8.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.