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Evolution Petroleum Corp (EPM)
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Evolution Petroleum (EPM) AI Stock Analysis

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EPM

Evolution Petroleum

(NYSE MKT:EPM)

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Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(3.73% Upside)
Evolution Petroleum's overall stock score of 57 reflects a mix of robust cash flow and stable balance sheet, offset by profitability challenges and a negative P/E ratio. The recent earnings call indicates potential growth from acquisitions and natural gas revenue, but operational and financial setbacks remain concerns. Technical analysis shows mixed signals, with the stock trading near support levels but with bearish momentum.

Evolution Petroleum (EPM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Evolution Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEvolution Petroleum Corporation, an oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, ownership, and management of oil and gas properties in the United States. The company holds interests in a CO2 enhanced oil recovery project in Louisiana's Delhi field. Its Delhi Holt-Bryant Unit covers an area of 13,636 acres located in Northeast Louisiana. The company also holds interests in the Hamilton Dome field covering 5,908 acres located in Wyoming; and Barnett Shale field covering an area of 123,777 acres located in North Texas. Evolution Petroleum Corporation was founded in 2003 and is based in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyEvolution Petroleum Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its operated and non-operated properties. The company employs enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques to maximize production from mature fields, thereby increasing the recoverable reserves and extending the life of existing wells. Key revenue streams include the sale of produced hydrocarbons in the open market, as well as through long-term contracts with refiners, marketers, and distributors. EPM's earnings are influenced by market prices for oil and gas, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. Partnerships and joint ventures with other exploration and production companies also play a significant role in leveraging expertise and resources to optimize field development and production strategies.

Evolution Petroleum Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 16, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a balanced view with significant achievements in acquisitions, financial management, and operational execution, countered by challenges in pricing and flat revenue. The strategic acquisitions and financial flexibility position the company well for future growth.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Material Improvement in Net Income and Adjusted EBITDA
Evolution Petroleum reported a net income of $3.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 million, showing significant improvement.
Successful Acquisitions
Closed a $9 million TexMex acquisition and the largest minerals-only acquisition in company history in the SCOOP/STACK, adding substantial production potential.
Dividend Continuity
Declared a $0.12 per share dividend for fiscal Q1 '26, marking the 48th consecutive quarterly dividend and continuing a streak since 2013.
Improved Financial Flexibility
Amended and restated senior secured reserve-based credit facility, increasing the borrowing base to $65 million under a $200 million revolving credit facility.
Strong Operational Execution
Turned in line 4 gross wells at Chaveroo on time and under budget with early results ahead of plan.
Negative Updates
Flat Revenue and Production
Total revenues of $21.1 million were essentially flat year-over-year with flat production of 7,198 BOE per day.
Oil and NGL Pricing Challenges
Oil prices declined 20% year-over-year and NGL prices declined 12% year-over-year, impacting overall pricing.
Operational Downtime and Pipeline Balancing
Temporary downtime at Delhi and pipeline balancing at Jonah negatively affected sales volumes.
Company Guidance
In the Evolution Petroleum Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 earnings call, the company reported a net income of $3.4 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 million, underlining strong financial management with a balanced commodity mix and effective cost controls. The average production was 7,198 BOE per day, with a revenue mix of 61% oil. The company declared a $0.12 per share dividend for fiscal Q1 2026, marking its 48th consecutive quarterly dividend. Notably, Evolution closed a $9 million TexMex acquisition, adding approximately 440 net BOE per day, and completed a significant minerals-only acquisition in the SCOOP/STACK, adding about 420 net BOE per day. The company emphasized its strategic focus on low-decline, high-return assets to navigate market volatility. Total revenues for fiscal Q4 were $21.1 million, and operating cash flows were $10.5 million with capital expenditures of $4.7 million. The company also highlighted its hedging strategy and credit facility amendments to maintain financial flexibility.

Evolution Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Evolution Petroleum's financial health is mixed. Cash flow generation is robust with improved free cash flow, but income statement challenges with declining margins and negative net profitability are concerning. The balance sheet indicates stability with moderate leverage. A focus on improving revenue growth and profitability could enhance overall financial stability.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
The company's TTM revenue has been relatively flat compared to the previous year with a marginal increase from $85.88M to $85.96M. Gross profit margin has decreased to 19.27% from 22.12% last year, and the net profit margin turned negative at -0.82% due to negative net income. EBITDA margin remains healthy at 27.46%, although EBIT margin has declined to 6.09%. Overall, the income statement reflects challenges in maintaining profitability amidst revenue stagnation.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.50, indicating manageable leverage. The equity ratio stands at 45.82%, reflecting a stable equity base. However, return on equity has turned negative, impacted by the negative net income. The company maintains a strong liquidity position with total assets of $156.39M against total liabilities of $84.73M. Stability is apparent, but profitability issues need attention.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Free cash flow has improved significantly, with a positive $29.26M compared to a negative $26.90M last year, showcasing effective cash flow management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high due to negative net income. Despite this, the company exhibits strong cash flow generation capabilities, helping offset income statement challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue85.84M85.84M85.88M128.51M108.93M32.70M
Gross Profit10.59M0.0019.00M54.70M52.22M11.16M
EBITDA17.29M4.17M27.02M60.02M49.77M-16.15M
Net Income1.47M1.47M4.08M35.22M32.63M-16.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets160.25M160.25M162.88M128.32M148.05M76.71M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.51M2.51M6.45M11.03M8.28M5.28M
Total Debt0.000.0039.66M184.00K21.25M4.02M
Total Liabilities88.44M88.44M81.75M36.22M72.53M22.11M
Stockholders Equity71.81M71.81M81.13M92.09M75.51M54.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow29.22M33.05M-26.90M44.28M-2.41M-14.04M
Operating Cash Flow33.05M33.05M22.73M51.27M52.46M4.73M
Investing Cash Flow-21.64M-21.64M-49.63M-6.99M-54.87M-18.77M
Financing Cash Flow-15.35M-15.35M22.32M-41.53M5.42M-349.43K

Evolution Petroleum Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.82
Price Trends
50DMA
4.93
Negative
100DMA
4.74
Positive
200DMA
4.71
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
42.28
Neutral
STOCH
8.05
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EPM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.05, below the 50-day MA of 4.93, and above the 200-day MA of 4.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EPM.

Evolution Petroleum Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$227.20M3.197.86%-13.66%-4.85%
67
Neutral
$110.73M21.505.16%4.96%45.90%-2.29%
57
Neutral
$167.67M146.991.50%9.96%-0.04%-71.98%
53
Neutral
$275.91M-2.40108.78%2.20%-11.53%-342.58%
49
Neutral
$153.87M-2.34-16.70%-5.53%-216.84%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EPM
Evolution Petroleum
4.82
-0.20
-3.98%
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
4.35
-2.13
-32.87%
PHX
PHX Minerals
4.35
1.07
32.62%
WTI
W&T Offshore
1.82
-0.55
-23.21%
REI
Ring Energy
1.09
-0.59
-35.12%
EPSN
Epsilon Energy
5.04
-0.70
-12.20%

Evolution Petroleum Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Evolution Petroleum Gains from Barnett Shale Audit Results
Positive
Jul 2, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Evolution Petroleum Corporation entered into an amended and restated senior secured reserve-based credit agreement with MidFirst Bank, allowing for borrowings up to $200 million, with an initial borrowing base of $65 million, maturing on June 30, 2028. This facility supports working capital, acquisitions, and development of oil and gas properties, with specific financial covenants and hedging requirements. On July 1, 2025, Evolution announced the results of a joint interest audit of its Barnett Shale properties, revealing approximately $1.8 million owed to the company due to overcharges from the largest operator for the years 2022-2023. This adjustment will positively impact their fiscal year 2025 results, and further audits are expected to yield additional benefits.

The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Buy with a $8.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Evolution Petroleum Reports Q3 Loss, Declares Dividend
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 13, 2025, Evolution Petroleum announced its fiscal third-quarter results, revealing a net loss of $2.2 million, despite a 30% increase in adjusted EBITDA from the previous quarter. The company declared a $0.12 per share dividend for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its 47th consecutive quarterly dividend, and highlighted the successful acquisition of non-operated oil and gas assets, which are expected to enhance future production.

The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Buy with a $8.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 02, 2025