Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Evolution Petroleum Corp (EPM)
:EPM
Top Page
Evolution Petroleum
(EPM)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(1.58% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong revenue rebound and healthy operating cash flow, but very thin net margins and volatile free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with positive momentum, while valuation is a blend of an attractive dividend yield and a negative P/E that clouds earnings-based value. The earnings call reinforced improving operating trends and disciplined capital plans, tempered by execution and leverage/cash-buffer risks.
Positive Factors
Operating cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$31M TTM) that covers earnings provides durable internal funding for dividends, modest capex and opportunistic acquisitions. This reduces reliance on external finance and supports capital allocation discipline over the next 2–6 months.
Minerals & royalty diversification
Growing minerals and royalty positions add capital-light, high-margin cash flow and diversify production exposure. Recent Haynesville‑Bossier and SCOOP/STACK activity should boost recurring cash receipts and lower per-unit capex needs, strengthening earnings resilience.
Lower unit operating costs
Meaningful per‑BOE LOE reductions driven by operational fixes and pump conversions improve long‑term field economics. Lower sustained lifting costs raise free cash flow potential per barrel and strengthen margins even if commodity prices moderate.
Negative Factors
Very thin net margins
A large gap between robust EBITDA and near‑zero net margin indicates weak conversion to bottom line after interest, depletion, and non‑operating items. This limits retained earnings, makes dividends and reinvestment more vulnerable to shocks, and reduces earnings durability.
Volatile free cash flow
Irregular free cash flow and weak conversion versus net income create uncertainty for sustained capital returns and A&D plans. Variable FCF raises the likelihood of external financing or cuts to discretionary spending during down cycles, constraining strategic flexibility.
Leverage & limited liquidity
Net debt above the company's ~1x target and a small cash buffer leave limited room for operational setbacks. Mechanical downtime (e.g., Delhi CO2 compressor) or delayed synergies could force higher borrowing or curb dividends and opportunistic buys in the medium term.
Evolution Petroleum (EPM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$155.07M
Dividend Yield13.52%
Average Volume (3M)347.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)53.4
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth-2.23%
EPS Growth-104.00%
CountryUS
Employees11
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding35,003,845
10 Day Avg. Volume419,706
30 Day Avg. Volume347,101
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.47
Price to Book (P/B)2.17
Price to Sales (P/S)1.82
P/FCF Ratio13.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.50Price Target Upside1.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$83.59M
Evolution Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEvolution Petroleum Corporation, an oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, ownership, and management of oil and gas properties in the United States. The company holds interests in a CO2 enhanced oil recovery project in Louisiana's Delhi field. Its Delhi Holt-Bryant Unit covers an area of 13,636 acres located in Northeast Louisiana. The company also holds interests in the Hamilton Dome field covering 5,908 acres located in Wyoming; and Barnett Shale field covering an area of 123,777 acres located in North Texas. Evolution Petroleum Corporation was founded in 2003 and is based in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyEvolution Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas extracted from its oil and gas properties. The company's revenue model is based on the production and sale of hydrocarbons, where it benefits from fluctuations in commodity prices. Key revenue streams include direct sales from its production activities and potential royalties from properties in which it holds an interest. Additionally, the company pursues strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its operational capabilities and reduce capital expenditures, contributing to its overall earnings. The effective management of production costs and the implementation of enhanced recovery techniques also play a critical role in optimizing profitability.
Evolution Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Breaks down income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.
Breaks down income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEvolution Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a clear operational and financial improvement: a large 41% year-over-year rise in adjusted EBITDA, a return to net income, production growth, meaningful per‑BOE cost reductions, and momentum in the minerals & royalty platform that should provide high‑margin, capital‑light cash flow. Counterbalancing these positives are operational disruptions (notably Delhi compressor downtime), modest top-line growth (revenues +2%), timing and one‑time benefits that may temper sustainability, and a leverage position above the company’s long‑term target with a relatively small cash balance. Overall, the tone was constructive and results were materially improved, but execution risks and balance‑sheet considerations remain under watch.Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA increased 41% year over year to $8.0 million, driven by stronger realized natural gas pricing, realized gains on derivative contracts, and lower lease operating expenses, despite only a 2% increase in revenue.
Profitability Turnaround
Net income was $1.1 million ($0.03 per diluted share) versus a net loss of $1.8 million ($0.06 per share) in the prior-year quarter, reflecting improved margins and cash flow generation.
Production Growth and Portfolio Diversification
Total production rose approximately 6% year over year, aided by mineral and royalty contributions (SCOOPSTACK). Management highlighted a balanced mix of oil and natural gas assets and increased exposure to gas as contributors to resilient performance.
Lower LOE and Unit Cost Improvements
Lease operating expenses declined to $11.5 million, or $16.96 per BOE, versus $20.05 per BOE in the prior-year quarter (≈15% reduction per BOE), aided by mineral/royalty mix and cessation of CO2 purchases at Delhi, plus other cost-control initiatives.
Minerals & Royalty Platform Momentum
SCOOPSTACK minerals activity ramped: three wells turned to sales during the quarter and 16 additional wells in progress. Management anticipates meaningful contributions from newly acquired Haynesville-Bossier minerals (closed late Dec/Jan) with most related cash outlays shifting into fiscal Q3.
Capital Allocation, Liquidity and Shareholder Returns
Total liquidity (cash plus available borrowing capacity) increased to ~$13.5 million from $11.9 million last quarter (~+13%). Cash on hand was $3.8 million and borrowings were $54.5 million. The company paid $4.2 million in dividends during the quarter and the Board declared a $0.12 per share quarterly dividend. Management reiterated a $4–6 million fiscal year CapEx range and a disciplined hedging program to limit downside risk.
Operational Efficiency Gains
Field-level improvements included Chabro pump conversions (ESP to rod pumps) that improved lifting efficiency and stabilized production (~5% above initial expectations) and TexMex optimization/workovers that added incremental production (~14 workovers netting ~80 BOPD) and are expected to reduce per-BOE costs over time.
Negative Updates
Delhi Equipment Downtime and CO2 Constraints
Delhi experienced equipment-related downtime (CO2 compressor issues) that limited injection volumes for much of the period and reduced sales volumes. Management indicated the issues were largely mechanical/timing-related but noted uncertainty in quantifying near-term production recovery and long-term impact without third-party CO2 volumes.
Modest Revenue Growth and Mixed Commodity Prices
Total revenue rose only 2% year over year to $20.7 million, as higher natural gas realizations were offset by lower oil and NGL pricing and wider regional differentials (mild Western winter) that partially hurt realized pricing in some assets.
One-time and Timing-Related Benefits May Limit Sustainability
Some of the quarter's LOE improvements and positive variance items were attributed to one-time items, accrual adjustments (e.g., Advo billing timing in Barnett), and other timing effects that management cautioned may not be fully repeatable in future periods.
Leverage and Limited Cash Cushion
Borrowings under the credit facility were $54.5 million while cash on hand was $3.8 million, leaving total liquidity of ~$13.5 million after a $4.2 million dividend payout. Management noted a long-term target of ~1x net debt but current leverage remains above that target.
Operational Uncertainties and Transition Costs
Several assets experienced temporary downtime, mechanical or timing-related issues, and transition-related catch-up work (TexMex operator transition), creating near-term variability in production and costs even as underlying field profitability stayed intact.
Limited Near-Term Impact from Recent Acquisitions
Haynesville-Bossier mineral acquisitions closed late in the period and had essentially zero impact in the reported quarter; the majority of related cash outlays (~$4 million) and production benefit will be realized in fiscal Q3, delaying immediate contribution to results.
Company Guidance
Management's forward guidance emphasized capital discipline and downside protection rather than specific production targets: they expect remaining fiscal CapEx of roughly $4–6 million, will continue adding hedges (swaps and collars) to limit downside while preserving upside, and target long‑term net‑debt near ~1.0x while staying opportunistic on accretive A&D. Key Q2 metrics cited on the call: revenues $20.7M (+2% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $8.0M (+41% YoY), net income $1.1M ($0.03/sh) vs prior‑year loss $1.8M ($0.06), LOE $11.5M or $16.96/BOE (prior $20.05/BOE), cash $3.8M, borrowings $54.5M, total liquidity ≈$13.5M (vs $11.9M), $4.2M paid in dividends and a $0.12/share quarterly dividend; operational notes included 3 SCOOPSTACK wells to sales and 16 wells in progress, 14 TexMex workovers adding ~80 bbl/d, Chabro ~5% above expectations, and the bulk of Haynesville‑Bossier consideration (~$4M) hitting fiscal Q3.Evolution Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue rebounded strongly TTM and operating cash flow is healthy, supported by a generally conservative balance sheet on the latest TTM view. Offsetting this, net profitability is extremely thin and free cash flow has been volatile/weak, reflecting cyclical earnings quality and uneven cash conversion.Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded strongly (+47%), and profitability is positive, but earnings quality is pressured: net margin is extremely thin (~0.3%) despite a solid EBITDA margin (~29.9%), indicating weaker conversion of operating strength into bottom-line profit. Versus prior peak years (2022–2023), margins and net income are materially lower, highlighting cyclical/commodity sensitivity and reduced profitability versus the company’s recent highs.54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears modest overall with strong equity backing (TTM shows very low debt and a debt-to-equity near zero), which supports financial flexibility. That said, annual filings show leverage can move meaningfully (debt-to-equity around ~0.49–0.52 in 2024–2025 annual), and returns on equity have fallen sharply from very strong levels in 2022–2023 to low levels recently, suggesting weaker efficiency and profitability on the current capital base.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative strength: TTM operating cash flow is healthy (~$31M) and covers reported earnings well (operating cash flow is ~1.86x net income). However, free cash flow has been volatile across periods (negative in 2022 and 2024 annual, positive in 2023 and 2025 annual), and TTM free cash flow conversion is weak/negative versus net income, pointing to higher capital needs or working-capital swings that can reduce consistency.63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 85.64M | 85.84M | 85.88M | 128.51M | 108.93M | 32.70M |
| Gross Profit | 19.53M | 14.51M | 19.00M | 55.83M | 52.75M | 11.16M |
| EBITDA | 30.62M | 26.83M | 27.02M | 60.02M | 49.77M | -16.15M |
| Net Income | 3.12M | 1.47M | 4.08M | 35.22M | 32.63M | -16.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 169.26M | 160.25M | 162.88M | 132.65M | 148.05M | 77.97M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.76M | 2.51M | 6.45M | 11.03M | 8.28M | 5.28M |
| Total Debt | 386.00K | 37.57M | 39.66M | 184.00K | 21.28M | 4.08M |
| Total Liabilities | 101.72M | 88.44M | 81.75M | 40.56M | 72.53M | 23.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 67.54M | 71.81M | 81.13M | 92.09M | 75.51M | 54.59M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.14M | 11.41M | -26.90M | 44.28M | -2.41M | -14.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 30.95M | 33.05M | 22.73M | 51.27M | 52.46M | 4.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.12M | -21.64M | -49.63M | -6.99M | -54.87M | -18.77M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 262.00K | -15.35M | 22.32M | -41.53M | 5.42M | -349.00K |
Evolution Petroleum Technical Analysis
Positive
4.43
Price Trends
3.82
Positive
4.03
Positive
4.32
Positive
Market Momentum
0.18
Negative
63.89
Neutral
64.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.15, above the 50-day MA of 3.82, and above the 200-day MA of 4.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EPM.
Evolution Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $191.99M | 4.01 | 8.80% | ― | -9.98% | -19.48% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $155.07M | 53.36 | 3.82% | 13.52% | -2.23% | -104.00% | |
52 Neutral | $221.00M | -7.89 | -6.90% | ― | -9.46% | -144.89% | |
50 Neutral | $218.13M | -2.51 | -21.91% | ― | -1.58% | -271.90% | |
42 Neutral | $110.90M | -5.86 | -31.43% | ― | -15.13% | 17.34% |
* Energy Sector Average
EPM
Evolution Petroleum
4.43
-0.11
-2.44%
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
6.18
1.54
33.19%
AMPY
Amplify Energy
5.46
0.60
12.35%
EP
Empire Petroleum
3.01
-3.58
-54.30%
IMPP
Imperial Petroleum
4.30
1.77
69.96%
Evolution Petroleum Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Evolution Petroleum Establishes At-The-Market Equity Offering Program
Neutral
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Evolution Petroleum entered into a Sales Agreement with Roth Capital Partners as lead agent, along with Northland Securities and A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners, to offer and sell from time to time up to $30 million of its common stock in at-the-market transactions. The arrangement, conducted under an effective shelf registration, allows the company to tap equity markets opportunistically without any obligation to issue shares, while compensating the lead agent with a 3% commission and covering specified expenses, providing flexible access to capital that could support future operational or strategic needs and potentially affect existing shareholders through dilution if fully utilized.
The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Buy with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Evolution Petroleum posts profit, boosts EBITDA and dividend
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Evolution Petroleum reported fiscal second-quarter 2026 results for the period ended December 31, 2025, showing a swing to net income of $1.1 million on revenues of $20.7 million, aided by a 6% production increase to 7,380 BOEPD, stronger realized natural gas prices, and lower lease operating expenses. Adjusted EBITDA rose 41% year over year to $8.0 million with margins improving to 39%, and the board approved the company’s 15th consecutive $0.12 per share dividend for the fiscal third quarter, payable March 31, 2026, marking its 50th straight quarterly cash payout.
Operationally, the company returned about $4.2 million to shareholders via dividends in the quarter, advanced development across its SCOOP/STACK interests, and completed pump conversions in the Chaveroo field that lifted efficiency and stabilized output. In late December 2025 and January 2026, Evolution closed four mineral and royalty acquisitions in the Haynesville-Bossier Shale for roughly $4.5 million, adding producing royalty wells, undeveloped locations, and net proved reserves that management expects will pay back in under three years and enhance long-term cash flow, dividend coverage, and portfolio diversification.
The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Evolution Petroleum Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Dec 9, 2025
On December 4, 2025, Evolution Petroleum Corporation held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders in Houston, Texas, where stockholders voted on four key proposals. The meeting resulted in the election of six directors for one-year terms, the ratification of Baker Tilly US, LLP as the independent accounting firm, and the approval of executive compensation and its annual advisory vote. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, impacting its leadership structure and financial oversight.
The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Evolution Petroleum Reports Q1 2026 Financial Results
Neutral
Nov 12, 2025
Evolution Petroleum reported its fiscal first quarter 2026 results, highlighting a 2% decline in production to 7,315 BOEPD and a 3% decrease in revenues to $21.3 million compared to the previous year. Despite challenges such as lower crude prices and higher operating costs, the company declared a $0.12 per share dividend for the 14th consecutive quarter, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns. The company also completed its largest acquisition of mineral and royalty interests in the SCOOP/STACK area, which is expected to provide significant cash flow benefits without additional capital expenditures.
The most recent analyst rating on (EPM) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Petroleum stock, see the EPM Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.