Evolution Petroleum Corp (EPM)
:EPM
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Evolution Petroleum
(EPM)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(12.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong revenue rebound and healthy operating cash flow, but very thin net margins and volatile free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with positive momentum, while valuation is a blend of an attractive dividend yield and a negative P/E that clouds earnings-based value. The earnings call reinforced improving operating trends and disciplined capital plans, tempered by execution and leverage/cash-buffer risks.
Positive Factors
Minerals & Royalty Growth
Expansion of minerals and royalty interests adds capital-light, high-margin cash flow that is less sensitive to operating cost inflation. New Haynesville-Bossier and SCOOP/STACK activity should provide durable production optionality and faster payback, improving long-term cash generation and diversification.
Negative Factors
Thin Net Margins
A large gap between strong EBITDA and nearly zero net margin indicates weak conversion after interest, depreciation and other items. This limits retained earnings and the company’s ability to build equity from operations, leaving long-term returns sensitive to non-operating costs and one-time items.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Minerals & Royalty Growth
Expansion of minerals and royalty interests adds capital-light, high-margin cash flow that is less sensitive to operating cost inflation. New Haynesville-Bossier and SCOOP/STACK activity should provide durable production optionality and faster payback, improving long-term cash generation and diversification.
Read all positive factors
Evolution Petroleum (EPM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$155.42M
Dividend Yield13.52%
Average Volume (3M)421.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.1
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth-2.23%
EPS Growth-104.00%
CountryUS
Employees11
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding35,003,845
10 Day Avg. Volume332,245
30 Day Avg. Volume421,852
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.47
Price to Book (P/B)2.17
Price to Sales (P/S)1.82
P/FCF Ratio13.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.50Price Target Upside1.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$83.59M
Evolution Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Evolution Petroleum Corporation, an oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, ownership, and management of oil and gas properties in the United States. The company holds interests in a CO2 enhanced oil recovery project i...
How the Company Makes Money
Evolution Petroleum makes money primarily by selling its share of hydrocarbons (crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs) produced from the properties in which it holds working interests and/or royalty interests. Because many of its interests are non-oper...
Evolution Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Breaks down income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.
Breaks down income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEvolution Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a clear operational and financial improvement: a large 41% year-over-year rise in adjusted EBITDA, a return to net income, production growth, meaningful per‑BOE cost reductions, and momentum in the minerals & royalty platform that should provide high‑margin, capital‑light cash flow. Counterbalancing these positives are operational disruptions (notably Delhi compressor downtime), modest top-line growth (revenues +2%), timing and one‑time benefits that may temper sustainability, and a leverage position above the company’s long‑term target with a relatively small cash balance. Overall, the tone was constructive and results were materially improved, but execution risks and balance‑sheet considerations remain under watch.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA increased 41% year over year to $8.0 million, driven by stronger realized natural gas pricing, realized gains on derivative contracts, and lower lease operating expenses, despite only a 2% increase in revenue.
Negative Updates
Delhi Equipment Downtime and CO2 Constraints
Delhi experienced equipment-related downtime (CO2 compressor issues) that limited injection volumes for much of the period and reduced sales volumes. Management indicated the issues were largely mechanical/timing-related but noted uncertainty in quantifying near-term production recovery and long-term impact without third-party CO2 volumes.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA increased 41% year over year to $8.0 million, driven by stronger realized natural gas pricing, realized gains on derivative contracts, and lower lease operating expenses, despite only a 2% increase in revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's forward guidance emphasized capital discipline and downside protection rather than specific production targets: they expect remaining fiscal CapEx of roughly $4–6 million, will continue adding hedges (swaps and collars) to limit downside while preserving upside, and target long‑term net‑debt near ~1.0x while staying opportunistic on accretive A&D. Key Q2 metrics cited on the call: revenues $20.7M (+2% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $8.0M (+41% YoY), net income $1.1M ($0.03/sh) vs prior‑year loss $1.8M ($0.06), LOE $11.5M or $16.96/BOE (prior $20.05/BOE), cash $3.8M, borrowings $54.5M, total liquidity ≈$13.5M (vs $11.9M), $4.2M paid in dividends and a $0.12/share quarterly dividend; operational notes included 3 SCOOPSTACK wells to sales and 16 wells in progress, 14 TexMex workovers adding ~80 bbl/d, Chabro ~5% above expectations, and the bulk of Haynesville‑Bossier consideration (~$4M) hitting fiscal Q3.Evolution Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 85.64M | 85.84M | 85.88M | 128.51M | 108.93M | 32.70M |
| Gross Profit | 19.53M | 14.51M | 19.00M | 55.83M | 52.75M | 11.16M |
| EBITDA | 30.62M | 26.83M | 27.02M | 60.02M | 49.77M | -16.15M |
| Net Income | 3.12M | 1.47M | 4.08M | 35.22M | 32.63M | -16.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 169.26M | 160.25M | 162.88M | 132.65M | 148.05M | 77.97M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.76M | 2.51M | 6.45M | 11.03M | 8.28M | 5.28M |
| Total Debt | 386.00K | 37.57M | 39.66M | 184.00K | 21.28M | 4.08M |
| Total Liabilities | 101.72M | 88.44M | 81.75M | 40.56M | 72.53M | 23.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 67.54M | 71.81M | 81.13M | 92.09M | 75.51M | 54.59M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.14M | 11.41M | -26.90M | 44.28M | -2.41M | -14.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 30.95M | 33.05M | 22.73M | 51.27M | 52.46M | 4.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.12M | -21.64M | -49.63M | -6.99M | -54.87M | -18.77M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 262.00K | -15.35M | 22.32M | -41.53M | 5.42M | -349.00K |
Evolution Petroleum Technical Analysis
Neutral
4.44
Price Trends
4.33
Positive
3.98
Positive
4.25
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Positive
48.76
Neutral
40.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EPM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.54, above the 50-day MA of 4.33, and above the 200-day MA of 4.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EPM.
Evolution Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $239.75M | 4.20 | 10.56% | ― | -9.46% | -144.89% | |
75 Outperform | $191.54M | 2.50 | 10.70% | ― | -9.98% | -19.48% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $155.42M | 28.10 | 4.46% | 13.52% | -2.23% | -104.00% | |
56 Neutral | $267.92M | -0.78 | -56.05% | ― | -1.58% | -271.90% | |
43 Neutral | $105.74M | -1.44 | -177.26% | ― | -15.13% | 17.34% |
* Energy Sector Average
EPM
Evolution Petroleum
4.44
0.66
17.37%
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
7.59
3.84
102.40%
AMPY
Amplify Energy
5.81
3.34
135.22%
EP
Empire Petroleum
2.87
-2.75
-48.90%
IMPP
Imperial Petroleum
4.29
1.93
81.78%
Evolution Petroleum Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Evolution Petroleum Establishes At-The-Market Equity Offering Program
Neutral
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Evolution Petroleum entered into a Sales Agreement with Roth Capital Partners as lead agent, along with Northland Securities and A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners, to offer and sell from time to time up to $30 million of its co...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Evolution Petroleum posts profit, boosts EBITDA and dividend
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Evolution Petroleum reported fiscal second-quarter 2026 results for the period ended December 31, 2025, showing a swing to net income of $1.1 million on revenues of $20.7 million, aided by a 6% production increase to 7,380 BO...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.