Empire Petroleum (EP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $112.37M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 35.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: -15.13%
• EPS Growth: 17.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 63
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -1.69
• Shares Outstanding: 36,842,583
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 42,900
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 35,683
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -22.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.03
• P/FCF Ratio: -25.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.88
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -17.82
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is held down primarily by deteriorating financial performance (deeper losses, negative equity, and weakening cash flow). Technical indicators are mixed and do not show strong momentum, while valuation is constrained by losses (negative P/E). Recent financing and credit-facility actions provide some near-term liquidity support but add dilution/financing risk.

Positive Factors

Extended secured revolving credit facility

A secured revolving credit facility expanded to a $20M cap with maturity extended to 2028 provides durable, asset-backed liquidity. Collateral on producing assets and semiannual redeterminations support ongoing borrowing capacity, reducing near-term refinancing cliff risk for operations and development.

Asset-backed upstream operations in core U.S. basins

Owning and operating producing wells and infrastructure creates tangible, long-lived assets and steady production capability. This operational footprint underpins future commodity-linked cash flows and gives management levers (maintenance capex, lift optimization, asset sales) to stabilize output and recoverability over a multi‑year horizon.

Demonstrated access to capital markets and investors

The combination of a private convertible note and a registered rights offering shows the company can tap multiple funding channels—private credit and equity from existing shareholders. That structural access to capital supports the ability to fund working capital and development while management executes operational steps to restore cash generation.

Negative Factors

Negative stockholders' equity

Negative equity is a structural weakness that constrains financing options and heightens default/refinancing risk. It makes issuing secured debt more likely, can trigger covenant issues, and reduces the firm's ability to absorb shocks or fund capital plans without significant dilution or asset dispositions over the medium term.

Inconsistent and negative operating cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow indicates the business is not self-sustaining and will need ongoing external funding or asset sales. Over months to a few years this pressures liquidity, forces higher-cost financing, and limits the company's ability to invest in production maintenance or growth without dilutive capital raises.

Sharply deteriorated profitability and revenue decline

Steep margin deterioration and revenue decline signal underlying operational or cost issues and possible impairments. Sustained deep losses erode reserves and management options, increase the likelihood of further write-downs, and raise the effective cost of capital, impairing the firm's ability to restore cash-generative operations.

Empire Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Empire Petroleum (EP) is an independent oil and gas company primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties across various regions. The company operates in the upstream sector, focusing on optimizing its portfolio of assets to maximize efficiency and profitability. EP is committed to employing innovative technologies and practices to enhance recovery rates and reduce operational costs, while also adhering to environmental standards.

How the Company Makes Money

EP primarily makes money by selling hydrocarbons it produces from its operated and non-operated oil and natural gas properties. Its key revenue stream is sales of crude oil and natural gas (and any associated NGLs where produced), typically priced using market-based benchmarks and realized pricing that reflects location differentials, product quality, and transportation/marketing arrangements. Revenue is generated on a per-unit basis (e.g., per barrel of oil and per Mcf of gas) multiplied by production volumes, so earnings are driven by commodity prices, production rates, operating costs (lifting costs), and decline/reinvestment dynamics. Additional material revenue streams, midstream/marketing income, hedging gains/losses, or specific long-term partnerships: null.

Empire Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak fundamentals drive a low score: revenue declined and losses deepened sharply, operating results remain heavily negative, stockholders’ equity turned negative (raising balance-sheet/refinancing risk), and operating cash flow turned negative with generally negative free cash flow.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated sharply: 2025 revenue fell ~8% year over year and losses deepened materially (net margin about -211% vs. ~-37% in 2024). While 2025 shows an unusually high gross margin, operating results remain heavily negative with large EBITDA and net losses, indicating significant cost/impairment pressure and weak earnings quality versus revenue.

Balance Sheet

Financial position weakened meaningfully in 2025 with stockholders’ equity turning negative, which reduces flexibility and raises refinancing risk. Debt is moderate in absolute terms, but negative equity makes leverage look structurally stressed versus prior years (2024 showed positive equity and a low debt load relative to equity).

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become inconsistent: operating cash flow turned negative in 2025 after being positive in 2024, and free cash flow is negative in most years (including a very large outflow in 2024). This pattern suggests the business is not reliably self-funding and may need external capital or asset actions to sustain operations and investment.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	34.20M	44.04M	40.14M	53.27M	27.68M
Gross Profit	-6.61M	3.47M	5.38M	23.80M	9.79M
EBITDA	-6.82M	-4.89M	-8.08M	10.02M	-7.37M
Net Income	-72.07M	-16.20M	-12.47M	7.08M	-18.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	65.87M	123.87M	92.62M	71.55M	50.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.19M	2.25M	7.79M	11.94M	3.61M
Total Debt	15.35M	11.88M	6.68M	8.00M	9.44M
Total Liabilities	70.48M	61.10M	57.66M	48.31M	40.26M
Stockholders Equity	-4.61M	62.77M	34.96M	23.24M	9.83M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-4.00M	-47.71M	-26.88M	4.61M	-16.74M
Operating Cash Flow	-3.95M	6.16M	-9.89M	18.06M	3.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.61M	-53.87M	-14.77M	-11.41M	-24.72M
Financing Cash Flow	7.50M	42.17M	20.50M	1.69M	25.00M

Empire Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.14, below the 50-day MA of 3.08, and below the 200-day MA of 3.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EP.

Empire Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AMPY	76 Outperform	$259.14M	4.20	10.56%	―	-9.46%	-144.89%
EPSN	73 Outperform	$166.81M	25.87	5.93%	5.24%	46.76%	11.48%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
EPM	65 Neutral	$160.67M	28.10	4.46%	13.52%	-2.23%	-104.00%
REI	60 Neutral	$305.72M	-5.17	-4.02%	―	-15.44%	-113.21%
GTE	57 Neutral	$297.57M	-0.78	-56.05%	―	-1.58%	-271.90%
EP	44 Neutral	$112.37M	-1.44	-177.26%	―	-15.13%	17.34%

Empire Petroleum Corporate Events

Empire Petroleum Expands and Extends Share Rights Offering

On February 25, 2026, Empire Petroleum Corporation announced it had extended the expiration of its registered rights offering to March 18, 2026 and increased the number of common shares available under the subscription rights to 3,344,482, raising the potential size of the offering to as much as $10 million. The company set the subscription price at $2.99 per share, with investors receiving one non-transferable right per share held on February 2, 2026, implying that shareholders must own at least 11 shares to buy one whole new share and can seek additional allocations through an over-subscription privilege, shaping how existing holders can maintain or increase their stakes.

Under the revised terms, a holder of 100 shares on the record date would be entitled to purchase nine new shares, as allocations are rounded down to the nearest whole share. The mechanics of the offer, including non-transferable rights and proration of over-subscriptions, underscore that the capital raise is aimed at existing shareholders and could modestly dilute non-participating investors while providing Empire Petroleum with incremental funding capacity of up to $10 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Empire Petroleum Completes $3 Million Convertible Note Financing

On February 19, 2026, Empire Petroleum Corporation issued a $3 million promissory note to investor Phil E. Mulacek, with all funds already advanced as of that date to repay existing debt and support general working capital. The unsecured note carries a 5.5% annual interest rate to its May 19, 2026 maturity, 9% thereafter on any unpaid principal, and can be prepaid by the company without penalty subject to notice and full cash payment of principal and interest.

Mulacek holds the option to convert some or all of the $3 million principal into Empire common shares at $2.99 per share, implying issuance of up to 1,003,344 shares if fully converted, with interest on converted amounts paid in cash at conversion. The company plans to secure NYSE American approval for listing the potential new shares, and the unregistered note issuance relied on a private placement exemption, underscoring Empire’s continued reliance on accredited investors for flexible, balance-sheet-focused financing.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Empire Petroleum Announces $6 Million Rights Offering

On February 2, 2026, Empire Petroleum Corporation launched a $6 million registered rights offering, granting each stockholder of record as of that date one non-transferable subscription right for every share of common stock owned, with each right allowing the purchase of 0.057 shares at $2.99 per share, subject to rounding to avoid fractional shares. The offering, which includes an oversubscription privilege for fully participating investors to acquire any unsubscribed shares on a pro-rata basis, is set to expire at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on February 27, 2026 (unless extended), providing the company with new equity capital while giving existing shareholders a time-limited opportunity to maintain or increase their ownership stakes on specified terms.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Sell with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Empire Petroleum Announces $6 Million Rights Offering Plan

On January 21, 2026, Empire Petroleum announced that its board set February 2, 2026, as the record date for a non-transferable subscription rights offering aimed at raising up to approximately $6.0 million in gross proceeds. Each shareholder of record will receive one right per common share, with each right allowing the purchase of 0.057 shares of common stock at a subscription price of $2.99 per whole share, potentially resulting in the issuance of about 2.0 million new shares if fully subscribed. The rights offering, which is expected to expire on February 27, 2026, includes an over-subscription privilege for shareholders who fully exercise their basic rights and may modestly dilute existing holdings while providing the company with additional capital to support its growth-focused strategy in its core oil and gas regions, subject to Empire’s ability to amend or terminate the offering before expiration.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Empire Petroleum extends and amends secured credit facility

On December 29, 2023, Empire North Dakota LLC and Empire ND Acquisition LLC, wholly owned subsidiaries of Empire Petroleum Corporation, entered into a secured revolving credit facility with Equity Bank with an initial commitment of $10 million, a maximum of $15 million, monthly commitment reductions beginning January 31, 2024, semiannual borrowing base redeterminations starting March 31, 2024, and a final maturity date initially set for December 29, 2026, with borrowings bearing interest at prime plus 1.50% (not less than 8.50%) and backed by liens on substantially all of the borrowers’ assets, including at least 80% of their producing oil and gas interests in North Dakota and Montana. The facility, guaranteed by Empire Petroleum, was subsequently expanded and extended through amendments: on November 18, 2024, the maximum revolver commitment was increased to $20 million and the monthly reduction stepped up to $250,000 from December 31, 2024; on June 18, 2025, Empire Texas Development LLC was added as a third borrower and its assets were pledged as collateral; and on December 29, 2025, the final maturity date was extended to December 29, 2028, a replacement note and updated security agreements were delivered, and the borrowers paid a $50,550 extension fee, collectively reinforcing the company’s access to secured debt capital for its oil and gas operations over a longer horizon.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.