Empire Petroleum (EP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $105.26M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 35.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: -15.13%
• EPS Growth: 17.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 63
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 34,855,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 42,900
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 35,683
• PEG Ratio: 7.76
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.19
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -23.26
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)

The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance (large losses, declining revenue, and poor cash generation). Technicals also lean bearish with the stock below key moving averages. Recent financing events modestly improve liquidity and funding flexibility but introduce dilution/collateral considerations, and valuation is difficult to assess due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Extended Revolving Credit Facility

Extending and increasing the secured revolving credit facility materially lengthens the company’s liquidity runway and access to capital for multiple years. This reduces near-term refinancing risk, supports operational spending and asset optimization, and underpins continuity of upstream operations through cyclical volatility.

Manageable Leverage

A moderate debt-to-equity ratio implies the company is not over-levered relative to assets, limiting interest burden and insolvency risk. Structurally, this provides capacity to raise incremental debt for development or acquisitions and cushions the balance sheet against prolonged commodity-driven revenue cycles.

Asset-backed Upstream Revenue Model

Empire’s core upstream model produces tangible, saleable hydrocarbons and recurring royalty/lease revenue, creating durable cash-generation potential tied to produced volumes. Long-lived reserves and midstream partnerships provide structural revenue channels and optionality to monetize production across cycles.

Negative Factors

Sustained Profitability Weakness

Deep and persistent negative margins and declining sales signal structural operating inefficiencies or reserve/price exposure that impair ability to generate returns. Over months, these losses erode equity, constrain reinvestment in production, and impair long-term competitiveness in the upstream sector.

Poor Cash Generation

Weak and declining free cash flow with very low cash conversion means the company cannot reliably self-fund capex, maintenance or debt service. Structurally, this increases reliance on external financing, limits strategic investments in recovery technology, and raises vulnerability in prolonged commodity downturns.

Assets Heavily Encumbered by Secured Debt

The secured revolver’s liens on core producing assets constrain corporate flexibility: they limit asset sales, encumber reserves used for collateral, and reduce options for restructuring or strategic disposals. Over time this can hinder M&A, capital recycling, and recovery of value for equity holders.

Empire Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Empire Petroleum (EP) is an independent oil and gas company primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties across various regions. The company operates in the upstream sector, focusing on optimizing its portfolio of assets to maximize efficiency and profitability. EP is committed to employing innovative technologies and practices to enhance recovery rates and reduce operational costs, while also adhering to environmental standards.

How the Company Makes Money

Empire Petroleum generates revenue through the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its owned and operated properties. The company's primary revenue streams include the direct sale of hydrocarbons to refiners and other end-users, as well as through contracts with midstream companies for transportation and processing services. Additionally, EP may earn revenue from royalties and lease payments associated with its land holdings. Strategic partnerships with other energy firms and service providers also contribute to its financial performance, enabling the company to leverage shared resources and expertise in exploration and production activities.

Empire Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are weak: the income statement shows significant losses (TTM net profit margin -44.2%) with declining revenue (-3.92%), and cash flow quality is poor (operating cash flow to net income 0.10; free cash flow growth -29.6%). Balance sheet leverage is more manageable (debt-to-equity 0.28; equity ratio 43.6%), but negative ROE (-30.1%) points to inefficient shareholder returns.

Income Statement

Empire Petroleum's income statement reveals significant challenges, with negative net profit margins and declining revenue growth. The TTM data shows a gross profit margin of 23.7%, but a concerning net profit margin of -44.2%, indicating substantial losses. Revenue has decreased by 3.92% in the TTM period, reflecting operational difficulties in a volatile industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -30.1%, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 43.6%, providing some stability in asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights significant issues, with negative free cash flow growth of -29.6% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.10, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is -8.21, indicating poor cash generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	37.23M	44.04M	40.14M	53.27M	27.68M	5.99M
Gross Profit	17.74M	3.47M	5.38M	23.80M	9.79M	2.52M
EBITDA	-5.03M	-4.89M	-8.08M	10.02M	-7.37M	-13.17M
Net Income	-17.31M	-16.20M	-12.47M	7.08M	-18.61M	-16.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	122.99M	123.87M	92.62M	71.55M	50.09M	11.25M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.60M	2.25M	7.79M	11.94M	3.61M	157.69K
Total Debt	16.35M	11.88M	6.68M	8.00M	9.44M	9.65M
Total Liabilities	69.33M	61.10M	57.66M	48.31M	40.26M	29.69M
Stockholders Equity	53.66M	62.77M	34.96M	23.24M	9.83M	-18.44M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-15.16M	-47.71M	-26.88M	4.61M	-16.74M	-2.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-9.96M	6.16M	-9.89M	18.06M	3.17M	-1.72M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.98M	-53.87M	-14.77M	-11.41M	-24.72M	856.29K
Financing Cash Flow	19.39M	42.17M	20.50M	1.69M	25.00M	1.02M

Empire Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.03, below the 50-day MA of 3.08, and below the 200-day MA of 4.17, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.25 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EP.

Empire Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EPSN	73 Outperform	$149.17M	18.81	5.92%	5.24%	46.76%	11.48%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
REI	64 Neutral	$246.60M	-15.54	-1.91%	―	-15.44%	-113.21%
AMPY	52 Neutral	$203.19M	-7.26	-6.90%	―	-9.46%	-144.89%
EPM	51 Neutral	$137.90M	-635.48	-0.19%	13.52%	-2.23%	-104.00%
GTE	50 Neutral	$191.66M	-2.21	-21.91%	―	-1.58%	-271.90%
EP	41 Neutral	$105.26M	-5.88	-31.43%	―	-15.13%	17.34%

Empire Petroleum Corporate Events

Empire Petroleum Announces $6 Million Rights Offering Plan

On January 21, 2026, Empire Petroleum announced that its board set February 2, 2026, as the record date for a non-transferable subscription rights offering aimed at raising up to approximately $6.0 million in gross proceeds. Each shareholder of record will receive one right per common share, with each right allowing the purchase of 0.057 shares of common stock at a subscription price of $2.99 per whole share, potentially resulting in the issuance of about 2.0 million new shares if fully subscribed. The rights offering, which is expected to expire on February 27, 2026, includes an over-subscription privilege for shareholders who fully exercise their basic rights and may modestly dilute existing holdings while providing the company with additional capital to support its growth-focused strategy in its core oil and gas regions, subject to Empire’s ability to amend or terminate the offering before expiration.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Empire Petroleum extends and amends secured credit facility

On December 29, 2023, Empire North Dakota LLC and Empire ND Acquisition LLC, wholly owned subsidiaries of Empire Petroleum Corporation, entered into a secured revolving credit facility with Equity Bank with an initial commitment of $10 million, a maximum of $15 million, monthly commitment reductions beginning January 31, 2024, semiannual borrowing base redeterminations starting March 31, 2024, and a final maturity date initially set for December 29, 2026, with borrowings bearing interest at prime plus 1.50% (not less than 8.50%) and backed by liens on substantially all of the borrowers’ assets, including at least 80% of their producing oil and gas interests in North Dakota and Montana. The facility, guaranteed by Empire Petroleum, was subsequently expanded and extended through amendments: on November 18, 2024, the maximum revolver commitment was increased to $20 million and the monthly reduction stepped up to $250,000 from December 31, 2024; on June 18, 2025, Empire Texas Development LLC was added as a third borrower and its assets were pledged as collateral; and on December 29, 2025, the final maturity date was extended to December 29, 2028, a replacement note and updated security agreements were delivered, and the borrowers paid a $50,550 extension fee, collectively reinforcing the company’s access to secured debt capital for its oil and gas operations over a longer horizon.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.

Empire Petroleum Amends Promissory Note Terms

Empire Petroleum Corporation, on September 24, 2025, issued a Promissory Note for $4,000,000 to Phil E. Mulacek, with a due date of September 23, 2027, and an interest rate of 5.5% per annum. On November 5, 2025, the company amended the terms of this Note and an associated Warrant through a Letter Agreement, altering the conversion price, warrant shares, and other terms, potentially impacting the company’s financial flexibility and shareholder equity.

The most recent analyst rating on (EP) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire Petroleum stock, see the EP Stock Forecast page.