Endesa (ELEZY)
OTHER OTC:ELEZY
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Endesa
(OTC:ELEZY)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$24.00
â–²(33.04% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/10/26
The score is primarily driven by improving profitability and better leverage trends, tempered by persistent revenue decline, 2025 gross-margin compression, and uneven free-cash-flow trajectory. Technicals are supportive (price above key moving averages with moderate momentum), while valuation is broadly fair with a moderate dividend yield. The earnings call adds support via a regulated-focused growth plan and shareholder returns, but increased leverage and regulatory/execution dependencies remain key risks.
Positive Factors
High share of regulated/contracted EBITDA
A large regulated/contracted EBITDA share provides durable, predictable cash flows and reduces exposure to wholesale price swings. This supports stable earnings, predictable dividends and higher visibility on FCF to fund networks and renewables over the next multi-year plan.
Negative Factors
Severe grid saturation and connection constraints
Widespread grid saturation materially constrains new connections, delaying renewable and electrification projects and deferring the monetization of planned capex. Persistent connection bottlenecks reduce near‑term demand growth and can postpone RAB recognition and revenue upside.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High share of regulated/contracted EBITDA
A large regulated/contracted EBITDA share provides durable, predictable cash flows and reduces exposure to wholesale price swings. This supports stable earnings, predictable dividends and higher visibility on FCF to fund networks and renewables over the next multi-year plan.
Read all positive factors
Endesa (ELEZY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$46.65B
Dividend Yield4.06%
Average Volume (3M)2.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.3
Beta (1Y)0.15
Revenue Growth-0.86%
EPS Growth106.28%
CountryUS
Employees8,948
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding2,083,489,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,040
30 Day Avg. Volume2,303
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.30
Price to Book (P/B)3.80
Price to Sales (P/S)1.57
P/FCF Ratio14.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit45.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda60.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.08Price Target Upside0.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Endesa Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Endesa, S.A. engages in the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity primarily in Spain and Portugal. The company generates electricity from various energy sources, such as hydroelectric, nuclear, thermal, wind, and solar. As of December ...
How the Company Makes Money
Endesa makes money mainly by selling electricity and by earning regulated returns from operating electricity networks.
1) Electricity retail and customer solutions (market-based): Endesa generates revenue by supplying electricity to end customers...
Endesa Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial outturn for 2025 (EBITDA and net ordinary income beat targets, excellent FFO and shareholder returns) and a credible, growth‑focused 2026–2028 plan emphasizing grid investment, predictable regulated earnings and efficiency gains. However, several execution and market risks were emphasized: severe grid saturation constraining connection approvals, dependence on regulatory approvals (royal decree, nuclear extension), elevated customer churn/fraud in liberalized markets, renewable curtailments and gas margin normalization. On balance the positives (outperformance, clear capital allocation, upgraded dividend/buyback, strong cash generation and a focused plan) outweigh the risks, although execution and regulatory delivery will be critical to realize projected returns.Positive Updates
Strong 2025 Financial Outperformance
EBITDA reached approximately EUR 5.8 billion (up ~9% year‑on‑year) and net ordinary income came in at EUR 2.3 billion (reported as an 18% YoY increase and ~21% above prior guidance), with an improved EBITDA→net ordinary income conversion ratio of ~41%.
Negative Updates
Severe Grid Saturation and Connection Constraints
Spanish distribution network saturation at ~88% overall and ~94% at Endesa nodes; only ~18% of connection requests granted in the year despite receiving ~26 GW of requests (well above national peak demand), delaying electrification and risky for planned demand growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong 2025 Financial Outperformance
EBITDA reached approximately EUR 5.8 billion (up ~9% year‑on‑year) and net ordinary income came in at EUR 2.3 billion (reported as an 18% YoY increase and ~21% above prior guidance), with an improved EBITDA→net ordinary income conversion ratio of ~41%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Endesa guided to deploy EUR 10.6 billion of investment in 2026‑28 (>50% to networks, EUR 5.5bn grid, EUR 3.0bn renewables), targeting ~1.9 GW of new renewables by 2028 (25 TWh output), RAB growth of ~13% by 2028 and ~EUR 15bn RAB by 2030, and roughly 15 GW installed renewables capacity by 2030; about 80% of planned CapEx is RAB‑accretive and ~85% of EBITDA is expected to be regulated or contracted. Financial targets include EBITDA of EUR 6.2–6.5bn by 2028 (≈10% vs 2025, ~4% CAGR), net ordinary income of EUR 2.5–2.6bn (≈4% CAGR), EPS growth ~5% p.a., FFO generation of ~EUR 14bn over the plan with FFO/EBITDA improving to 78% (from EUR 4.1bn and 70% in 2025), a net ordinary income/EBITDA conversion ~40–41%, and a free power unit margin rising toward EUR 55–60/MWh (from EUR 52/MWh in 2025) while gas margin normalizes from EUR 9/MWh. Capital‑allocation and balance‑sheet guidance: net debt is expected to rise to ~EUR 14–15bn (net debt/EBITDA ~2.3x from ~1.8x), funds/outflows of ~EUR 14bn/~EUR 18bn (cash investments ~EUR 11bn), shareholder returns include a proposed 2025 DPS of EUR 1.58 (yield >5%), a minimum 70% payout on net ordinary income, dividend CAGR ~4%, and completion of a EUR 2bn buyback program (≈30% executed, new EUR 0.5bn tranche to July 2026, ~EUR 1.5bn remaining).Endesa Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 20.58B | 20.93B | 25.07B | 32.54B | 20.52B |
| Gross Profit | 4.52B | 8.16B | 9.35B | 9.15B | 5.16B |
| EBITDA | 5.42B | 5.42B | 3.49B | 5.40B | 3.60B |
| Net Income | 2.11B | 1.89B | 742.00M | 2.54B | 1.44B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 37.48B | 37.34B | 41.28B | 49.96B | 39.97B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 263.00M | 1.81B | 2.11B | 7.14B | 1.58B |
| Total Debt | 10.89B | 10.49B | 13.73B | 18.49B | 10.38B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.87B | 28.29B | 34.08B | 44.20B | 34.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.52B | 8.11B | 7.02B | 5.56B | 5.38B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.21B | 1.72B | 2.41B | -460.00M | 539.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.05B | 3.57B | 4.70B | 1.67B | 2.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.71B | -1.33B | 3.20B | -8.16B | -3.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.99B | -3.50B | -6.66B | 6.65B | 752.00M |
Endesa Technical Analysis
Positive
18.04
Price Trends
19.71
Positive
18.80
Positive
17.25
Positive
Market Momentum
0.60
Negative
74.47
Negative
99.63
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ELEZY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.60, below the 50-day MA of 19.71, and above the 200-day MA of 17.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.47 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ELEZY.
Endesa Risk Analysis
Endesa disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Endesa reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Endesa Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $73.22B | 16.71 | 12.06% | 3.25% | 7.66% | 37.42% | |
71 Outperform | $102.34B | 18.33 | 9.69% | 3.61% | 4.80% | 14.44% | |
68 Neutral | $46.65B | 15.33 | 25.60% | 4.06% | -0.86% | 106.28% | |
67 Neutral | $196.21B | 24.54 | 13.05% | 2.84% | 26.96% | -6.80% | |
67 Neutral | $29.41B | 21.95 | 8.16% | 3.13% | 8.42% | 32.48% | |
66 Neutral | $108.77B | 22.16 | 12.50% | 3.40% | 9.40% | -6.05% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% |
* Utilities Sector Average
ELEZY
Endesa
22.09
9.74
78.80%
AEP
American Electric Power
134.71
35.67
36.01%
DUK
Duke Energy
131.60
19.27
17.15%
NEE
NextEra Energy
94.17
28.54
43.49%
PPL
PPL
39.15
6.04
18.25%
SO
Southern Co
97.17
12.16
14.30%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.