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Endesa (ELEZY)
OTHER OTC:ELEZY
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Endesa
(OTC:ELEZY)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$20.00
â–²(10.86% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:12/18/25
Endesa's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, as highlighted in the earnings call. The technical analysis supports a positive trend, and the valuation metrics are favorable with a good dividend yield. However, high leverage and regulatory challenges pose risks that temper the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong Financial Performance
The significant increase in EBITDA and net income reflects Endesa's strong operational efficiency and profitability, indicating a robust business model capable of sustaining growth.
Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships
Acquiring full control of Cetasa and entering strategic agreements enhances Endesa's market position and expands its customer base, supporting long-term growth and diversification.
Emission-Free Output
Achieving a high level of emission-free output aligns with global sustainability trends and regulatory demands, positioning Endesa as a leader in clean energy transition.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting Endesa's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns.
Regulatory Framework Challenges
Regulatory challenges in distribution remuneration could hinder necessary investments, affecting Endesa's ability to meet strategic goals and maintain competitive advantage.
Customer Base Reduction
A declining customer base in a competitive market suggests challenges in customer retention and acquisition, potentially impacting revenue stability and market share.
Endesa (ELEZY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$43.15B
Dividend Yield4.06%
Average Volume (3M)2.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.4
Beta (1Y)0.08
Revenue Growth-0.86%
EPS Growth106.28%
CountryUS
Employees8,948
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding2,117,504,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,040
30 Day Avg. Volume2,303
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.72
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio12.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.08Price Target Upside0.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Endesa Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEndesa, S.A. engages in the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity primarily in Spain and Portugal. The company generates electricity from various energy sources, such as hydroelectric, nuclear, thermal, wind, and solar. As of December 31, 2021, it distributed electricity to approximately 21 million customers covering a total area of approximately 195,794 square kilometers. The company's distribution and transmission networks consist of 316,506 kilometers. It also sells energy, as well as provides energy related commercial services. In addition, the company engages in installation, maintenance, and repair of home electrical, heating, and air conditioning; trading operations; and investment holding business. Further, it is involved in the supply of electricity and gas to other European markets, including Germany, France, and the Netherlands. Additionally, the company engages in the electric mobility, demand management, and energy storage; exploitation of primary energy resources; provision of industrial services in the areas of telecommunications, water, and gas; electricity transmission business; management, operation, and administration of nuclear plants; issuance of debt instruments; and provision of consultancy and civil engineering services. The company was formerly known as Empresa Nacional de Electricidad, S.A. and changed its name to Endesa, S.A. in June 1997. The company was incorporated in 1944 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain. Endesa, S.A. is a subsidiary of ENEL Iberia, S.L.U.
How the Company Makes MoneyEndesa generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company operates in three main segments: generation, distribution, and retail. In the generation segment, Endesa earns money by producing electricity from its diverse portfolio of power plants, including renewable sources such as wind and solar. The distribution segment provides regulated income through the management and operation of electricity distribution networks, ensuring that electricity reaches consumers efficiently. The retail segment involves selling electricity and gas to end-users, where pricing strategies and customer acquisition play a significant role in revenue generation. Additionally, partnerships in renewable energy projects and government contracts for infrastructure development contribute to its earnings. Factors such as regulatory frameworks, energy prices, and demand for electricity also significantly influence the company's revenue.
Endesa Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial outturn for 2025 (EBITDA and net ordinary income beat targets, excellent FFO and shareholder returns) and a credible, growth‑focused 2026–2028 plan emphasizing grid investment, predictable regulated earnings and efficiency gains. However, several execution and market risks were emphasized: severe grid saturation constraining connection approvals, dependence on regulatory approvals (royal decree, nuclear extension), elevated customer churn/fraud in liberalized markets, renewable curtailments and gas margin normalization. On balance the positives (outperformance, clear capital allocation, upgraded dividend/buyback, strong cash generation and a focused plan) outweigh the risks, although execution and regulatory delivery will be critical to realize projected returns.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong 2025 Financial Outperformance
EBITDA reached approximately EUR 5.8 billion (up ~9% year‑on‑year) and net ordinary income came in at EUR 2.3 billion (reported as an 18% YoY increase and ~21% above prior guidance), with an improved EBITDA→net ordinary income conversion ratio of ~41%.
Robust Cash Generation and Conversion
Funds From Operations (FFO) were EUR 4.1 billion in 2025, with a cash conversion (FFO/EBITDA) of ~70% in 2025 and a target to increase to ~78% through the 2026–2028 plan.
Shareholder Returns Upgraded
Proposed 2025 dividend of EUR 1.58 per share (20% higher YoY) implying a yield >5%; EUR 2 billion share buyback program ~30% executed with an additional EUR 0.5 billion tranche approved and commitment to complete program within planned timeframe; dividend policy updated to minimum 70% payout of net ordinary income and DPS CAGR ~4% (2026–2028).
Aggressive Capital Deployment Focused on Grids
2026–2028 investment plan of EUR 10.6 billion (+10% vs prior plan) with >50% allocated to networks; grid CapEx to increase by ~40% to EUR 5.5 billion and ~80% of grid CapEx contributing to RAB growth, driving a projected RAB increase of ~13% by 2028.
Low‑Risk, Visible Earnings Profile
Management expects ~85% of EBITDA to be regulated or contracted over the plan, EBITDA to grow ~4% CAGR (target EUR 6.2–6.5 billion by 2028, ~10% vs 2025) and net ordinary income to grow ~4% CAGR to EUR 2.5–2.6 billion by 2028; EPS targeted to grow ~5% CAGR.
Renewables and Storage Progress
Integration of ~1.2 GW of new capacity in 2025 enabled ~80% emission‑free installed capacity; plan to commission ~1.9 GW of renewables (mainly wind + batteries) by 2028 to deliver ~25 TWh, with selective projects (e.g., Pego 600 MW hybrid; EUR 600 million capex) and expected IRR ~300 bps above WACC on certain projects.
Improving Operational KPIs and Investment Execution
2025 investments of EUR 3.2 billion (>50% higher vs prior year), ~77% to grids/renewables; interruption time index improved and technical losses broadly stable despite non‑manageable losses; gross debt cost reduced to ~3.3%.
Negative Updates
Severe Grid Saturation and Connection Constraints
Spanish distribution network saturation at ~88% overall and ~94% at Endesa nodes; only ~18% of connection requests granted in the year despite receiving ~26 GW of requests (well above national peak demand), delaying electrification and risky for planned demand growth.
Leverage and Net Debt Increase
Net financial debt rose by ~EUR 0.8 billion in 2025 to EUR 10.1 billion; under the 2026–2028 plan net debt is expected to increase by ~EUR 4 billion to EUR 14–15 billion with net debt/EBITDA rising from ~1.8x to ~2.3x by end‑2028 (increased leverage to fund CapEx, buybacks and dividends).
Customer Market Challenges and High Churn
Customer churn and losses remain elevated (management cited churn in the range of ~25–30% concentrated in higher‑churn/fraud segments); management accepted short‑term client losses while shifting to higher‑value customers and completed MasOrange consolidation to improve loyalty — risk remains execution‑sensitive.
Renewables and Hydro Variability, Curtailments
Renewables EBITDA was slightly lower in 2025 due to lower volumes and prices (wind/solar), and curtailments/insufficient storage were noted as risks; hydro performance is lumpy (2025 strong, normalization expected), adding volatility to generation results.
Ancillary Services Costs and Market Volatility
Intraday pool price volatility was extremely high (EUR ~145/MWh mid‑winter to 0 or negative in spring) and post‑blackout TSO measures materially increased ancillary services costs, which pressured margins in 2025 (free power margin down only ~5% to EUR 52/MWh but impacted).
Gas Business Normalization and Contract Expiries
2025 gas margin improved to ~EUR 9/MWh thanks to prior hedges, but management expects gas sales to decline ~33% (expiry of Qatar and Nigeria contracts) and normalisation of exceptional 2025 gas margins which may reduce EBITDA (management cited ~EUR 400 million headwind vs 2025 levels).
Plan Contingent on Regulatory Actions and Assumptions
Key elements of the plan rely on regulatory/legislative actions (royal decree to raise investment cap and full recognition of CapEx into RAB) and asset assumptions (e.g., assumed extension of Almaraz nuclear units). Outcomes are not guaranteed and could affect RAB growth, returns and timing.
Investment Timing and RAB Recognition Lag
Management noted a ramp‑up timing issue: ~EUR 1 billion of investments by end‑2028 may be in‑flight but not yet recognized in RAB/EBITDA, meaning some benefits are pushed beyond the plan horizon and short‑term returns depend on execution and regulatory recognition timing.
Company Guidance
Endesa guided to deploy EUR 10.6 billion of investment in 2026‑28 (>50% to networks, EUR 5.5bn grid, EUR 3.0bn renewables), targeting ~1.9 GW of new renewables by 2028 (25 TWh output), RAB growth of ~13% by 2028 and ~EUR 15bn RAB by 2030, and roughly 15 GW installed renewables capacity by 2030; about 80% of planned CapEx is RAB‑accretive and ~85% of EBITDA is expected to be regulated or contracted. Financial targets include EBITDA of EUR 6.2–6.5bn by 2028 (≈10% vs 2025, ~4% CAGR), net ordinary income of EUR 2.5–2.6bn (≈4% CAGR), EPS growth ~5% p.a., FFO generation of ~EUR 14bn over the plan with FFO/EBITDA improving to 78% (from EUR 4.1bn and 70% in 2025), a net ordinary income/EBITDA conversion ~40–41%, and a free power unit margin rising toward EUR 55–60/MWh (from EUR 52/MWh in 2025) while gas margin normalizes from EUR 9/MWh. Capital‑allocation and balance‑sheet guidance: net debt is expected to rise to ~EUR 14–15bn (net debt/EBITDA ~2.3x from ~1.8x), funds/outflows of ~EUR 14bn/~EUR 18bn (cash investments ~EUR 11bn), shareholder returns include a proposed 2025 DPS of EUR 1.58 (yield >5%), a minimum 70% payout on net ordinary income, dividend CAGR ~4%, and completion of a EUR 2bn buyback program (≈30% executed, new EUR 0.5bn tranche to July 2026, ~EUR 1.5bn remaining).Endesa Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Endesa demonstrates solid revenue growth and profitability, with strong EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the company faces challenges with high leverage and declining free cash flow growth. While the return on equity is impressive, indicating efficient equity utilization, the high debt levels pose a risk. Overall, Endesa maintains a stable financial position with room for improvement in cash flow management and leverage reduction.Income Statement
Endesa's income statement shows a stable revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) increase of 1.59%. The gross profit margin has decreased from 38.96% in 2024 to 28.33% in TTM, indicating potential cost pressures. However, the net profit margin improved slightly to 9.95% in TTM, reflecting better cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 14.94% and 24.59% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.32 in TTM, indicating significant leverage, though it has improved from 1.96 in 2023. The return on equity is robust at 25.53%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is not directly provided, but the overall leverage remains a concern despite improvements.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by -3.04% in TTM, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.55, showing adequate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.60, suggesting a moderate conversion of net income into free cash flow.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 21.11B | 20.93B | 25.07B | 32.54B | 20.52B | 16.64B |
| Gross Profit | 6.48B | 8.16B | 9.35B | 9.15B | 5.16B | 5.07B |
| EBITDA | 5.03B | 5.42B | 3.49B | 5.40B | 3.60B | 3.34B |
| Net Income | 2.19B | 1.89B | 742.00M | 2.54B | 1.44B | 1.39B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 37.19B | 37.34B | 41.28B | 49.96B | 39.97B | 32.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 196.63M | 1.81B | 2.11B | 7.14B | 1.58B | 1.58B |
| Total Debt | 10.75B | 10.49B | 13.73B | 18.49B | 10.38B | 4.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.33B | 28.29B | 34.08B | 44.20B | 34.42B | 24.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.69B | 8.11B | 7.02B | 5.56B | 5.38B | 7.32B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.67B | 1.72B | 2.41B | -460.00M | 539.00M | 1.25B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.52B | 3.57B | 4.70B | 1.67B | 2.62B | 2.95B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.79B | -1.33B | 3.20B | -8.16B | -3.07B | -1.73B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.89B | -3.50B | -6.66B | 6.65B | 752.00M | -1.04B |
Endesa Technical Analysis
Positive
18.04
Price Trends
18.42
Positive
17.94
Positive
16.51
Positive
Market Momentum
0.54
Negative
66.58
Neutral
92.76
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ELEZY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.10, below the 50-day MA of 18.42, and above the 200-day MA of 16.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ELEZY.
Endesa Risk Analysis
Endesa disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Endesa reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Endesa Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $72.38B | 20.09 | 12.33% | 3.25% | 7.66% | 37.42% | |
75 Outperform | $43.15B | 17.42 | 25.93% | 4.06% | -0.86% | 106.28% | |
71 Outperform | $101.76B | 20.72 | 9.74% | 3.61% | 4.80% | 14.44% | |
68 Neutral | $109.01B | 24.88 | 12.54% | 3.40% | 9.40% | -6.05% | |
67 Neutral | $29.29B | 24.58 | 8.15% | 3.13% | 8.42% | 32.48% | |
66 Neutral | $195.37B | 28.41 | 13.05% | 2.84% | 26.96% | -6.80% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% |
* Utilities Sector Average
ELEZY
Endesa
20.41
9.59
88.58%
AEP
American Electric Power
133.82
29.60
28.40%
DUK
Duke Energy
130.85
16.24
14.17%
NEE
NextEra Energy
93.77
24.22
34.82%
PPL
PPL
38.98
4.43
12.82%
SO
Southern Co
97.38
9.42
10.71%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.