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Emergent Biosolutions (EBS)
NYSE:EBS

Emergent Biosolutions (EBS) AI Stock Analysis

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Emergent Biosolutions

(NYSE:EBS)

Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(10.58%Upside)
The overall stock score of 61 reflects a mixed outlook. The most significant factor is the financial performance, which shows challenges in revenue and profitability. The earnings call and corporate events provide some positive momentum with significant improvements and strategic initiatives. However, technical analysis and valuation indicate caution due to longer-term indicators and negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
The company recorded $68M in net income for the quarter, significantly ahead of our expectation for net income of only $14.9M.
Stock Valuation
The announcement of a share repurchase program reflects management's belief that the shares remain undervalued.
Strategic Partnerships
Emergent inked a collaboration with Rocketvax to develop next-generation products and broadened its naloxone portfolio.
Negative Factors
Competition
Risks include faster-than-anticipated NARCAN franchise erosion due to greater-than-anticipated levels of generic competition.
Market Performance
Emergent shares are down roughly 49% compared to a roughly 10% decline in the benchmark XBI index.

Emergent Biosolutions (EBS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Emergent Biosolutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEmergent BioSolutions Inc., a life sciences company, focuses on the provision of preparedness and response solutions that address accidental, deliberate, and naturally occurring public health threats (PHTs) in the United States. The company's products address PHTs, which include chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives; emerging infectious diseases; travel health; and emerging health crises and acute/emergency care. It offers BioThrax, an anthrax vaccine; ACAM2000, a smallpox vaccine; Botulism Antitoxin Heptavalent to treat botulinum disease; vaccinia immune globulin intravenous that addresses complications from smallpox vaccine; raxibacumab for the treatment and prophylaxis of inhalational anthrax; Anthrasil to for inhalational anthrax; reactive skin decontamination lotion kits; and Trobigard, a combination drug-device auto injector product candidate; and Trobigard, a combination drug-device auto injector product candidate. The company also provides NARCAN, a nasal spray for the emergency treatment of known or suspected opioid overdose; Vivotif, an oral vaccine for typhoid fever; and Vaxchora, a single-dose oral vaccine to treat cholera. In addition, it is developing AP003, a Naloxone multidose nasal spray; AP007, a sustained release Nalmefene injection for treatment of opioid use disorder; AV7909, an anthrax vaccine; CGRD-001, a pralidoxime chloride/atropine auto-injector; CHIKV VLP, a chikungunya virus VLP vaccine; COVID-HIG for the treatment of SARS-CoV2; EGRD-001, a diazepam auto-injector; SIAN, an antidote for the initial treatment of acute poisoning of cyanide; and UniFlu, a universal influenza vaccine. Further, the company provides contract development and manufacturing services comprising drug substance and product manufacturing, and packaging, as well as technology transfer, process, and analytical development services. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
How the Company Makes MoneyEmergent BioSolutions makes money through the sale of its medical countermeasures and public health products to governments, non-governmental organizations, and commercial entities. Key revenue streams include contracts with the U.S. government for the provision of biodefense products such as anthrax vaccines and treatments for chemical exposure. The company also generates revenue from the development and sale of products addressing emerging infectious diseases, such as vaccines for COVID-19. Partnerships with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies for product development and commercialization contribute significantly to its earnings. Additionally, Emergent BioSolutions may receive funding from government agencies and organizations to support research and development activities.

Emergent Biosolutions Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 33.54%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative elements. While the company reported strong improvements in financial metrics, international revenue growth, and strategic agreements, challenges such as a decline in total revenue and specific issues with NARCAN sales were highlighted. The overall sentiment reflects a balanced outlook with significant achievements offset by notable challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved Financial Position
Emergent BioSolutions improved its cash position, ending Q1 2025 with $149 million on the balance sheet and a total liquidity of $250 million, including a fully undrawn revolver. Net leverage reduced to 2.8x adjusted EBITDA from 5.7x in Q1 2024.
International Revenue Growth
International sales accounted for $91 million of total revenue, representing about 40% of overall revenue and 60% of medical countermeasures revenue, indicating significant diversification and growth outside the U.S.
Significant Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 1,300 basis points to 35%, and adjusted gross margin increased by 700 basis points year-over-year.
Large Contract with Ontario Ministry of Health
A 3-year agreement valued at approximately $65 million was signed with the Province of Ontario for supplying NARCAN, demonstrating continued demand and support for Emergent's opioid overdose reversal treatments.
Strong Start to 2025
Net income for Q1 2025 was $68 million, a 656% increase compared to Q1 2024, highlighting significant financial improvement.
Negative Updates
Decline in Total Revenue
Total revenues decreased to $222 million, impacted by lower NARCAN and BAT sales, as well as divestitures of RSDL and Camden, partially offset by higher international smallpox sales.
Challenges with NARCAN Sales
NARCAN revenue was impacted by reduced pricing in the public interest space, a one-time sale of short-dated generic naloxone, and delays in procurement due to federal administration transitions.
Projected Revenue Decline in Q2 2025
Q2 2025 revenue is forecasted between $95 million to $120 million, suggesting a sequential decline, with profitability expected to decline significantly compared to Q1.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Emergent BioSolutions reaffirmed its outlook and guidance for the full year, projecting total revenues between $750 million and $850 million and adjusted EBITDA ranging from $150 million to $200 million. The company reported a strong start to the year with first-quarter revenues of $222 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $78 million, marking an increase of $11 million compared to the previous year. Emergent's net income for the quarter was $68 million, a substantial 656% increase from the first quarter of 2024. The company also reported an improved cash position with $149 million on the balance sheet and total liquidity of $249 million. Their net leverage ratio was significantly reduced to 2.8x adjusted EBITDA from 5.7x in the first quarter of 2024. Emergent's MCM product sales were projected between $435 million and $485 million, while commercial products, including NARCAN, were expected to generate revenues in the range of $265 million to $315 million. The company also highlighted strong international sales, with $91 million in MCM sales outside the United States during the quarter.

Emergent Biosolutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Emergent BioSolutions faces challenges with declining revenue and profitability, as indicated by negative net income and shrinking margins. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage but declining equity, while cash flow performance shows some recovery but remains volatile.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Emergent Biosolutions has experienced a decline in revenue from 2021 to TTM 2025, coupled with negative net income over the past few periods, indicating profitability issues. The gross profit margin for TTM 2025 is approximately 31.6%, showing a decrease compared to historical figures. The company also faces challenges with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, signaling operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio for TTM 2025 stands at approximately 1.20, indicating a moderate level of leverage. While the equity ratio is around 38.8%, showing a reasonable balance between equity and assets, the declining stockholders' equity over the years raises concerns about financial stability. The negative ROE underscores ongoing profitability challenges.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Emergent Biosolutions shows a positive trend in operating cash flow for TTM 2025, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of approximately -0.84, reflecting cash flow generation despite losses. The free cash flow has improved compared to previous years, suggesting some recovery in cash management. However, the significant fluctuations in cash flow metrics highlight potential volatility.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
960.00M1.01B1.05B1.12B1.79B1.56B
Gross Profit
303.40M305.20M343.90M427.20M1.04B1.03B
EBIT
-54.20M-108.70M-726.40M-166.00M352.60M433.80M
EBITDA
106.30M36.90M-505.30M-32.90M458.20M549.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-131.60M-190.60M-760.50M-223.80M219.50M305.80M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
99.50M99.50M111.70M642.60M576.10M621.30M
Total Assets
1.39B1.39B1.82B3.17B2.96B2.88B
Total Debt
663.70M663.70M860.20M1.41B841.00M874.80M
Net Debt
564.20M564.20M748.50M763.20M264.90M253.50M
Total Liabilities
906.90M906.90M1.17B1.78B1.34B1.44B
Stockholders Equity
482.80M482.80M649.30M1.38B1.62B1.45B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
94.40M35.80M-257.90M-149.90M96.10M395.00M
Operating Cash Flow
110.10M58.70M-206.30M-34.10M321.10M536.00M
Investing Cash Flow
195.50M125.20M212.30M-381.30M-225.00M-151.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-231.10M-190.00M-535.70M481.20M-141.00M69.50M

Emergent Biosolutions Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price6.33
Price Trends
50DMA
5.40
Positive
100DMA
6.90
Negative
200DMA
7.90
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.26
Positive
RSI
55.47
Neutral
STOCH
30.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EBS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.19, above the 50-day MA of 5.40, and below the 200-day MA of 7.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EBS.

Emergent Biosolutions Risk Analysis

Emergent Biosolutions disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Emergent Biosolutions reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Emergent Biosolutions Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$434.36M9.1325.47%10.13%-23.37%-39.03%
67
Neutral
$1.34B-5.19%30.26%-173.36%
EBEBS
61
Neutral
$341.95M-21.63%-18.56%76.88%
53
Neutral
$5.23B3.23-44.27%2.82%16.82%0.11%
48
Neutral
$1.18B64.45-10.45%24.76%-783.38%
46
Neutral
$254.36M-83.58%6.88%-17.54%
45
Neutral
$279.11M77.48%5.29%-37.31%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EBS
Emergent Biosolutions
6.33
-0.34
-5.10%
DVAX
Dynavax
9.89
-2.21
-18.26%
LFCR
Lifecore Biomedical
6.88
1.02
17.41%
SIGA
SIGA Technologies
6.15
-0.71
-10.35%
ANIP
ANI Pharmaceuticals
60.87
-6.13
-9.15%
AQST
Aquestive Therapeutics
3.41
0.42
14.05%

Emergent Biosolutions Corporate Events

Legal Proceedings
Emergent Biosolutions Settlement Receives Preliminary Approval
Negative
May 23, 2025

On May 9, 2025, the United States District Court for the District of Maryland granted preliminary approval for a proposed settlement of shareholder derivative actions against Emergent BioSolutions Inc. The settlement, which includes no admission of fault by the defendants, addresses allegations of fiduciary breaches related to the company’s Bayview facility and its role in manufacturing COVID-19 vaccines. The court has scheduled a hearing for August 6, 2025, to determine final approval. The allegations claimed that Emergent’s management failed to ensure regulatory compliance, leading to significant financial losses and legal challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (EBS) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Emergent Biosolutions stock, see the EBS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Emergent BioSolutions Reports 656% Net Income Surge
Positive
May 7, 2025

Emergent BioSolutions reported a significant financial turnaround in the first quarter of 2025, with a net income increase of 656% despite a 26% drop in total revenues compared to the previous year. The company attributes this improvement to its strategic plan aimed at stabilizing operations and enhancing profitability, as evidenced by increased gross and EBITDA margins. Recent business developments include securing contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense and other international orders, as well as strategic partnerships and asset sales, all of which are expected to support future growth and stability.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Emergent BioSolutions Stockholders Elect Directors at Meeting
Neutral
May 6, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Emergent BioSolutions Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, where approximately 67% of the company’s shares were represented. During the meeting, stockholders elected three Class I directors, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the company’s independent auditor for 2025, and approved the 2024 compensation for the company’s named executive officers.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Emergent BioSolutions Sells Baltimore Facility to Syngene
Neutral
Mar 10, 2025

On March 10, 2025, Emergent BioSolutions announced the sale of its Baltimore-Bayview drug substance manufacturing facility to Syngene International for $36.5 million. The agreement allows Emergent to retain rights to manufacturing services at the facility for future growth and pandemic response. This transaction is part of Emergent’s multi-year transformation plan to streamline operations and enhance its manufacturing network, which includes facilities in Lansing, Michigan, and Winnipeg, Canada. The sale is expected to close in the first quarter of 2025, following customary closing conditions.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.