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Dynavax Technologies Corp. (DVAX)
NASDAQ:DVAX

Dynavax (DVAX) AI Stock Analysis

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Dynavax

(NASDAQ:DVAX)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-2.87%Downside)
The overall stock score for Dynavax is primarily influenced by its financial performance struggles, including revenue contraction and net losses, which weigh heavily on the rating. Despite this, the earnings call presented a positive outlook with strong revenue growth and market share gains for HEPLISAV-B, offering a glimmer of hope for future performance. Technical analysis and valuation factors also contributed to the score but were less impactful.
Positive Factors
Growth Potential
Analyst's recommendation remains 'Outperform', indicating confidence in the company's growth potential.
Market Share
Heplisav has continued to gain and maintain market share, with an estimated share of the U.S. HBV market increasing to ~43% in Q1.
Profitability
Heplisav-B gross margin was 82% in 4Q24, indicating strong profitability from the product.
Negative Factors
Sales Estimates
First-quarter Heplisav sales came in below estimates, reflecting a miss on expectations.
Sales Performance
Year-over-year market share gains and revenue growth of 36% are still encouraging despite a slight miss on sales estimates.

Dynavax (DVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Dynavax Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX) is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on leveraging the power of the body's innate and adaptive immune responses to treat and prevent disease. The company specializes in developing vaccines and therapeutics, with a particular emphasis on immunology and infectious diseases. Its core product, HEPLISAV-B, is a hepatitis B vaccine that offers protection with a two-dose regimen over a one-month period, catering primarily to the adult population.
How the Company Makes MoneyDynavax makes money primarily through the commercialization of its proprietary vaccines. The company's revenue model is centered around the sales of HEPLISAV-B, which it markets and distributes primarily in the United States. Dynavax generates income by selling the vaccine to healthcare providers, distributors, and government entities. Additionally, the company engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to expand its research and development pipeline, potentially leading to milestone payments and royalties. Factors such as government recommendations, public health initiatives, and the prevalence of hepatitis B infection significantly influence the demand for HEPLISAV-B, contributing to the company's earnings.

Dynavax Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.01%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Dynavax demonstrated strong financial performance with record revenue and market share growth for HEPLISAV-B, alongside meaningful pipeline advancements and new programs. However, financial challenges such as a significant allowance for doubtful accounts and a substantial GAAP net loss due to debt refinancing impacted the quarter. Despite these challenges, the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of achieving the upper half of revenue guidance and strong EBITDA growth.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Net Revenue for HEPLISAV-B
Dynavax reported its highest ever first quarter net revenue for HEPLISAV-B at $65 million, which was a 36% increase compared to the previous year. This performance sets the company on track to achieve the top half of their full-year guidance range of net product sales between $305 million and $325 million.
Expansion of Development Pipeline
Dynavax is advancing its development pipeline with significant clinical trial milestones for its shingles and plague vaccine programs. Additionally, new programs for pandemic influenza and Lyme disease vaccines were announced, leveraging their CpG-1018 adjuvant technology.
Strong Market Position for HEPLISAV-B
HEPLISAV-B's estimated U.S. market share rose to 43% in Q1, up from 41% in the same period last year, driven by broad-based gains and consistent annual market share increases across major retail customers.
Positive Financial Outlook
Dynavax expects adjusted EBITDA to be at least $75 million for the full year 2025, demonstrating their ability to grow adjusted EBITDA at more than two times the rate of product revenue.
Negative Updates
Allowance for Doubtful Accounts
Dynavax recorded an $11 million allowance for doubtful accounts related to a legacy COVID-19 adjuvant commercial supply agreement with Clover Biopharmaceuticals due to their reported liquidity issues as of December 31, 2024.
GAAP Net Loss
The company reported a GAAP net loss of $96 million for the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to the GAAP accounting treatment of their debt refinancing, compared to a GAAP net loss of $9 million for the first quarter of 2024.
Company Guidance
In the Dynavax Technologies' First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance with several key metrics. They reported a record first quarter net revenue for HEPLISAV-B of $65 million, a 36% increase from the previous year, putting them on track to reach the top half of their annual guidance range of $305 million to $325 million in net product sales. HEPLISAV-B's U.S. market share increased to 43% in Q1 2025 from 41% the previous year, with expectations of reaching over 60% by 2030 as the market is anticipated to peak at $900 million. Additionally, they are advancing their shingles program, with a top line readout expected in Q3 2025, and have announced new programs for pandemic influenza and Lyme disease. The company is executing a $200 million share repurchase program, having completed over 85% of it, and aims to maintain disciplined cost management with SG&A expenses expected to remain flat for the year. They reaffirmed their HEPLISAV-B gross margin guidance at approximately 80% for 2025.

Dynavax Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Dynavax faces significant revenue contraction and net losses, with a TTM revenue of $294.6M compared to $722.7M the previous year. The income statement is negatively impacted by a net loss of $60.1M, despite a high gross profit margin of 82.3%. The balance sheet shows moderate strength with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54, but declining equity and rising debt raise concerns. Cash flow management is adequate but operational inefficiencies persist.
Income Statement
40
Negative
The income statement shows declining revenue from the previous fiscal year, with a TTM revenue of $294.6M compared to the previous annual revenue of $722.7M. Gross profit margin for the TTM is approximately 82.3%, indicating strong product profitability. However, the net profit margin is negative, at -20.4%, due to a net loss of $60.1M. This reflects challenges in cost management and achieving profitability.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet is moderately strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54, suggesting a balanced use of leverage. The equity ratio stands at 56.1%, highlighting a solid equity base. However, the decline in stockholders' equity and rising total debt indicate potential financial stress.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive operating cash flow of $63.6M in the TTM, but free cash flow has decreased compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting better cash flow management despite net losses.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue294.62M277.25M232.28M722.68M439.44M46.55M
Gross Profit242.37M227.80M182.12M460.53M265.87M32.64M
EBITDA-54.37M45.70M9.67M307.70M95.71M-46.84M
Net Income-60.07M27.31M-6.39M293.16M76.71M-91.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets945.93M986.26M997.10M985.85M1.04B353.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments661.34M713.83M742.30M624.39M545.95M165.04M
Total Debt286.03M254.42M256.91M258.01M257.38M217.85M
Total Liabilities414.99M389.46M375.02M404.84M816.87M294.58M
Stockholders Equity530.94M596.80M622.07M581.01M222.37M58.69M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow54.02M60.16M96.46M55.58M326.05M-103.32M
Operating Cash Flow63.55M66.51M100.56M62.72M335.53M-92.25M
Investing Cash Flow-13.96M-18.04M-153.93M-316.00M14.22M-26.53M
Financing Cash Flow-129.70M-102.02M1.39M19.52M55.78M109.50M

Dynavax Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price10.81
Price Trends
50DMA
10.17
Positive
100DMA
11.53
Negative
200DMA
11.86
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Negative
RSI
61.01
Neutral
STOCH
84.06
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DVAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.13, above the 50-day MA of 10.17, and below the 200-day MA of 11.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DVAX.

Dynavax Risk Analysis

Dynavax disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dynavax reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Dynavax Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$1.41B-5.19%30.26%-173.36%
72
Outperform
$1.76B29.066.32%11.82%
69
Neutral
$1.08B8.2019.90%8.05%-8.46%
60
Neutral
$1.08B-12.27%3.08%-247.82%
52
Neutral
$1.24B64.45-10.45%24.76%-783.38%
52
Neutral
$7.45B0.27-61.87%2.30%16.62%1.04%
EVEVO
49
Neutral
$1.50B-20.41%0.45%-125.61%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DVAX
Dynavax
10.81
0.21
1.98%
PCRX
Pacira Pharmaceuticals
23.17
2.83
13.91%
SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals
32.67
5.19
18.89%
ANIP
ANI Pharmaceuticals
65.31
2.93
4.70%
AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals
22.60
-14.78
-39.54%
EVO
Evotec AG
4.15
-1.06
-20.35%

Dynavax Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Dynavax Elects Directors and Approves Key Amendments
Neutral
Jun 17, 2025

On April 14, 2025, Dynavax held its Annual Meeting where stockholders elected four Class I directors to serve until the 2028 meeting. The meeting also saw the approval of executive compensation, the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor, and the amendment of the Certificate of Incorporation to declassify the Board. However, a stockholder proposal to amend the bylaws without stockholder approval was not passed.

The most recent analyst rating on (DVAX) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dynavax stock, see the DVAX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Dynavax Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Dynavax Technologies Corporation announced the appointment of Joseph Metzinger as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, effective May 12, 2025. Metzinger, a seasoned financial executive with 19 years of experience, has been consulting for Dynavax since 2024 and previously held senior roles at CFGI and ACC Consumer Finance. His appointment includes a base salary, performance bonus, and stock options, with no familial or transactional ties to current executives.

The most recent analyst rating on (DVAX) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dynavax stock, see the DVAX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 05, 2025