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Dynavax Technologies (DVAX)
:DVAX
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Dynavax
(NASDAQ:DVAX)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼( -3.06% Downside)
Positive Factors
Market Share Gains
Heplisav has continued to gain and maintain market share, with an estimated share of the U.S. HBV market increasing to ~43% in Q1.
Profitability
Heplisav-B gross margin was 82% in 4Q24, indicating strong profitability from the product.
Strategic Growth
Management is confident in achieving the upper half of the previously issued guidance based on trends in the adult hepatitis B vaccine market.
Negative Factors
Sales Estimates
Year-over-year market share gains and revenue growth of 36% are still encouraging despite a slight miss on sales estimates.
Sales Performance
First-quarter Heplisav sales came in below estimates, reflecting a miss on expectations.
Seasonal Sales Impact
Heplisav's Q1 sales, although seasonally soft, showed a healthy year-over-year growth of 36%.
Dynavax (DVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.18B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)64.5
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth24.76%
EPS Growth-783.38%
CountryUS
Employees405
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength40
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.77
Shares Outstanding120,080,650
10 Day Avg. Volume2,181,454
30 Day Avg. Volume2,406,567
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.60
Price to Book (P/B)2.93
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio28.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.00Price Target Upside124.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Dynavax Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionDynavax Technologies Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing novel vaccines in the United States. The company markets HEPLISAV-B, a hepatitis B vaccine for prevention of infection caused by all known subtypes of hepatitis B virus in age 18 years and older in the United States and Europe. It also manufactures and sells CpG 1018, the adjuvant used in HEPLISAV-B. Dynavax Technologies Corporation has a collaboration agreement with Valneva Scotland Limited; agreement with Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd.; and sublicense agreement with Merck, Sharp & Dohme Corp. The company was formerly known as Double Helix Corporation and changed its name to Dynavax Technologies Corporation in September 1996. Dynavax Technologies Corporation was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyDynavax makes money primarily through the commercialization of its proprietary vaccines. The company's revenue model is centered around the sales of HEPLISAV-B, which it markets and distributes primarily in the United States. Dynavax generates income by selling the vaccine to healthcare providers, distributors, and government entities. Additionally, the company engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to expand its research and development pipeline, potentially leading to milestone payments and royalties. Factors such as government recommendations, public health initiatives, and the prevalence of hepatitis B infection significantly influence the demand for HEPLISAV-B, contributing to the company's earnings.
Dynavax Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Dynavax has shown positive revenue growth and a healthy gross margin, but profitability remains a concern with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The balance sheet is stable with a strong equity position but carries some leverage risk. Cash flow performance is solid, with efficient cash generation and management, supporting the company's operations despite ongoing profitability challenges.Income Statement
Dynavax shows a growth in revenue from the previous year, with a revenue growth rate of 19.34% in the latest period. However, the company has struggled with profitability, as seen in the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational challenges. The gross profit margin is healthy at 100% due to the total revenue equating to gross profit, but net profit margin is modest at 9.85% due to net income being relatively low compared to total revenue.48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 60.50%, indicating financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 0.42, suggesting some leverage risk. Return on equity is low at 4.58%, suggesting that the company is not generating substantial returns on shareholders' equity.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Dynavax shows strong operating cash flow relative to net income, with a robust free cash flow growth rate of 6.90%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.43, reflecting efficient cash generation. The company's free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong at 2.20, indicating effective cash management.75
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 277.25M | 232.28M | 722.68M | 439.44M | 46.55M | Gross Profit |
| 277.25M | 182.12M | 460.53M | 265.87M | 32.64M | EBIT |
| -4.12M | -37.03M | 283.52M | 134.49M | -75.22M | EBITDA |
| 45.70M | 9.67M | 307.70M | 95.71M | -46.84M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 27.31M | -6.39M | 293.16M | 76.71M | -91.78M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 713.83M | 742.30M | 624.39M | 545.95M | 165.04M | Total Assets |
| 986.26M | 997.10M | 985.85M | 1.04B | 353.27M | Total Debt |
| 250.24M | 256.91M | 258.01M | 257.38M | 217.85M | Net Debt |
| 154.36M | 106.64M | 56.01M | -178.81M | 185.77M | Total Liabilities |
| 389.46M | 375.02M | 404.84M | 816.87M | 294.58M | Stockholders Equity |
| 596.80M | 622.07M | 581.01M | 222.37M | 58.69M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 60.16M | 96.46M | 55.58M | 326.05M | -103.32M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 66.51M | 100.56M | 62.72M | 335.53M | -92.25M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -18.04M | -153.93M | -316.00M | 14.22M | -26.53M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -102.02M | 1.39M | 19.52M | 55.78M | 109.50M |
Dynavax Technical Analysis
Negative
9.80
Price Trends
11.55
Negative
12.33
Negative
12.02
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.48
Negative
40.15
Neutral
50.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.31, below the 50-day MA of 11.55, and below the 200-day MA of 12.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DVAX.
Dynavax Risk Analysis
Dynavax disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dynavax reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
There can be no assurance with respect to the number of shares of our common stock repurchased under the share repurchase program or that our share repurchase program will provide the benefits anticipated. Q4, 2024
2.
The anti-takeover provisions of our certificate of incorporation, our bylaws, Delaware law and our stockholder rights plan may prevent or frustrate a change in control, even if an acquisition would be beneficial to our stockholders, which could affect our stock price adversely and prevent attempts by our stockholders to replace or remove our current management. Q4, 2024
Dynavax Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.15B | 8.88 | 19.90% | ― | 8.05% | -8.46% | |
68 Neutral | $1.80B | 29.07 | 6.32% | ― | 11.82% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $1.19B | ― | -12.27% | ― | 3.08% | -247.82% | |
60 Neutral | $1.25B | ― | -5.19% | ― | 30.26% | -173.36% | |
55 Neutral | $1.67B | ― | -20.41% | ― | 0.45% | -125.61% | |
53 Neutral | $5.14B | 3.23 | -45.01% | 2.85% | 17.55% | -0.69% | |
48 Neutral | $1.18B | 64.45 | -10.45% | ― | 24.76% | -783.38% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
DVAX
Dynavax
9.80
-1.70
-14.78%
PCRX
Pacira Pharmaceuticals
25.75
-4.30
-14.31%
SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals
32.10
5.03
18.58%
ANIP
ANI Pharmaceuticals
57.79
-5.44
-8.60%
AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals
24.47
-17.51
-41.71%
EVO
Evotec AG
4.73
-0.13
-2.67%
Dynavax Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -10.26%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Dynavax demonstrated strong financial performance with record revenue and market share growth for HEPLISAV-B, alongside meaningful pipeline advancements and new programs. However, financial challenges such as a significant allowance for doubtful accounts and a substantial GAAP net loss due to debt refinancing impacted the quarter. Despite these challenges, the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of achieving the upper half of revenue guidance and strong EBITDA growth.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Net Revenue for HEPLISAV-B
Dynavax reported its highest ever first quarter net revenue for HEPLISAV-B at $65 million, which was a 36% increase compared to the previous year. This performance sets the company on track to achieve the top half of their full-year guidance range of net product sales between $305 million and $325 million.
Expansion of Development Pipeline
Dynavax is advancing its development pipeline with significant clinical trial milestones for its shingles and plague vaccine programs. Additionally, new programs for pandemic influenza and Lyme disease vaccines were announced, leveraging their CpG-1018 adjuvant technology.
Strong Market Position for HEPLISAV-B
HEPLISAV-B's estimated U.S. market share rose to 43% in Q1, up from 41% in the same period last year, driven by broad-based gains and consistent annual market share increases across major retail customers.
Positive Financial Outlook
Dynavax expects adjusted EBITDA to be at least $75 million for the full year 2025, demonstrating their ability to grow adjusted EBITDA at more than two times the rate of product revenue.
Negative Updates
Allowance for Doubtful Accounts
Dynavax recorded an $11 million allowance for doubtful accounts related to a legacy COVID-19 adjuvant commercial supply agreement with Clover Biopharmaceuticals due to their reported liquidity issues as of December 31, 2024.
GAAP Net Loss
The company reported a GAAP net loss of $96 million for the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to the GAAP accounting treatment of their debt refinancing, compared to a GAAP net loss of $9 million for the first quarter of 2024.
Company Guidance
In the Dynavax Technologies' First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance with several key metrics. They reported a record first quarter net revenue for HEPLISAV-B of $65 million, a 36% increase from the previous year, putting them on track to reach the top half of their annual guidance range of $305 million to $325 million in net product sales. HEPLISAV-B's U.S. market share increased to 43% in Q1 2025 from 41% the previous year, with expectations of reaching over 60% by 2030 as the market is anticipated to peak at $900 million. Additionally, they are advancing their shingles program, with a top line readout expected in Q3 2025, and have announced new programs for pandemic influenza and Lyme disease. The company is executing a $200 million share repurchase program, having completed over 85% of it, and aims to maintain disciplined cost management with SG&A expenses expected to remain flat for the year. They reaffirmed their HEPLISAV-B gross margin guidance at approximately 80% for 2025.Dynavax Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Dynavax Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer
Neutral
May 13, 2025
On May 8, 2025, Dynavax Technologies Corporation announced the appointment of Joseph Metzinger as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, effective May 12, 2025. Metzinger, a seasoned financial executive with 19 years of experience, has been consulting for Dynavax since 2024 and previously held senior roles at CFGI and ACC Consumer Finance. His appointment includes a base salary, performance bonus, and stock options, with no familial or transactional ties to current executives.
The most recent analyst rating on (DVAX) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dynavax stock, see the DVAX Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.