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Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)
NASDAQ:SUPN
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Supernus Pharmaceuticals
(NASDAQ:SUPN)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$53.00
▼(-5.89% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/07/25
Supernus Pharmaceuticals demonstrates strong product growth and a stable balance sheet, but faces profitability and cash flow challenges. The technical analysis suggests potential for recovery, while valuation metrics are currently unattractive. The earnings call provided a positive outlook, but highlighted operational losses and supply issues.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth reflects strong demand for Supernus's products, indicating successful market penetration and product adoption.
Product Performance
Strong performance of key products suggests robust demand and effective market strategies, supporting long-term revenue stability.
Financial Stability
A low debt-to-equity ratio enhances financial stability, providing flexibility for future investments and growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
Operating Losses
Significant operating losses can strain financial resources and impact profitability, necessitating cost management improvements.
Supply Constraints
Supply constraints hinder growth potential and customer satisfaction, requiring resolution to meet demand and sustain sales momentum.
Decreased Cash Reserves
Reduced cash reserves limit financial flexibility and may constrain the company's ability to invest in growth or manage unforeseen expenses.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.06B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)656.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth4.54%
EPS Growth-130.59%
CountryUS
Employees674
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.85
Shares Outstanding57,339,350
10 Day Avg. Volume587,799
30 Day Avg. Volume656,766
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.92
Price to Sales (P/S)3.01
P/FCF Ratio11.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-31.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue-139.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-165.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.58K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.17Price Target Upside10.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)3.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$861.24M
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSupernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in the United States. Its commercial products are Trokendi XR, an extended release topiramate product indicated for the treatment of epilepsy, as well as for the prophylaxis of migraine headache; and Oxtellar XR, an extended release oxcarbazepine for the monotherapy treatment of partial onset epilepsy seizures in adults and children between 6 to 17 years of age. The company's commercial products also comprise Qelbree, a selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor indicated for the treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in pediatric patients 6 to 17 years of age; APOKYN for the acute intermittent treatment of hypomobility or off episodes in patients with advanced Parkinson's Disease (PD); XADAGO for treating levodopa/carbidopa in patients with PD experiencing off episodes; MYOBLOC, a Type B toxin product indicated for the treatment of cervical dystonia and sialorrhea in adults; GOCOVRI for the treatment of dyskinesia in patients with PD; and Osmolex ER for the treatment of Parkinson's disease and drug-induced extrapyramidal reaction in adult patients. In addition, its product candidates include Qelbree (SPN-812), which has completed Phase III clinical trials that is used for the treatment of ADHD; SPN-830, a late-stage drug/device combination product candidate for the prevention of off episodes in PD patients; SPN-817, a novel product candidate in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of severe epilepsy; SPN-820, a product candidate in Phase II clinical trials for treating resistant depression; and SPN-443 and SPN-446, which are in preclinical stage for treating CNS. The company markets and sells its products through pharmaceutical wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
How the Company Makes MoneySupernus Pharmaceuticals generates revenue through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, which are primarily focused on CNS disorders. The company earns money by marketing its approved medications to healthcare providers and pharmacies, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from prescriptions filled by patients. In addition to direct sales, Supernus may also engage in partnerships or licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies to expand its market reach or enhance its product offerings. These partnerships can provide additional revenue streams through upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales of partnered products. Furthermore, the company's commitment to research and development may lead to new product launches that can contribute to future earnings.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Product
Breaks down revenue by individual drugs and therapies, revealing which products drive Supernus’s topline and how concentrated its sales are. Heavy reliance on a few CNS products raises vulnerability to patent expirations, generic entry, or pricing pressure, while rising sales from recent launches or label expansions signal successful commercialization and potential for sustainable growth. Also highlights whether R&D and marketing investments are translating into real, repeatable revenue streams.
Breaks down revenue by individual drugs and therapies, revealing which products drive Supernus’s topline and how concentrated its sales are. Heavy reliance on a few CNS products raises vulnerability to patent expirations, generic entry, or pricing pressure, while rising sales from recent launches or label expansions signal successful commercialization and potential for sustainable growth. Also highlights whether R&D and marketing investments are translating into real, repeatable revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySupernus Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call shows a predominantly positive commercial and strategic momentum: record FY2025 revenues ($719M), strong growth and market traction across the four growth products (notably Qelbree, ZURZUVAE, GOCOVRI and early ONAPGO uptake), clear pipeline advancement, and constructive 2026 revenue guidance ($840M–$870M). Offsetting these strengths are notable near-term headwinds from acquisition-related costs, higher R&D and SG&A that pushed FY2025 to a GAAP loss, a reduction in cash due to the Sage acquisition, and execution risks tied to ONAPGO supply continuity and gross-to-net pressures (e.g., Qelbree PBM bill). On balance the growth metrics, commercialization wins and forward guidance outweigh the financial/operational challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Full-Year Revenue
Total revenues reached a record $719.0M for FY2025, driven by growth products and the Sage acquisition.
Strong Contribution from Growth Portfolio
Revenues from four growth products (Qelbree, GOCOVRI, ZURZUVAE, ONAPGO) grew 40% (company-stated) and accounted for ~76% of total revenues in Q4 2025.
ONAPGO Early Commercial Traction and Supply Progress
ONAPGO Q4 net sales of $8.9M (up from $6.8M in Q3); first-year net sales $17.3M. Prescriptions grew 29.6% and prescribers grew 28% Q4 vs Q3. Current supplier will cover 2026; guidance assumes $45M–$70M of ONAPGO net sales in 2026.
ZURZUVAE Rapid Uptake Post-Acquisition
ZURZUVAE collaboration revenues of $32.8M in Q4 and $53M for the 5-month period since the Sage close (July 31, 2025). Biogen-reported U.S. sales rose ~187% YoY and ~19% QoQ; prescribers doubled YoY and total prescriptions increased >150% YoY.
Qelbree Delivers Strong Growth and Scale
Qelbree exceeded $300M in net sales for 2025, delivering 26% growth vs 2024. Total annual prescriptions grew 21% YoY; adult prescriptions +29% and pediatric +18% in 2025. Q4 prescriptions +18% YoY.
GOCOVRI Continued Growth
GOCOVRI net sales reached $146M for 2025, up 12% YoY; total annual prescriptions reached ~67,000 (+14% YoY); Q4 net sales $38.6M with Q4 prescription growth of 16% YoY.
Non-GAAP Profitability and Adjusted Operating Results
Q4 2025 adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings were $48.5M (flat YoY). Full-year 2025 adjusted operating earnings were $158.7M and management provided 2026 non-GAAP guidance of $140M–$170M.
R&D Progress and Pipeline Advancement
Initiated Phase IIb SPN-820 (approx. 200 MDD adults); SPN-817 Phase IIb ongoing (target ~258 TR focal seizure patients); SPN-443 Phase I expected H2 2026. Early-stage Sage assets evaluated with select retention and partnership plans.
Strong Balance Sheet Flexibility
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of ~$309M as of Dec 31, 2025; no debt and stated flexibility to pursue M&A and BD opportunities.
2026 Financial Guidance
Management expects FY2026 total revenues of $840M–$870M, combined R&D+SG&A $620M–$650M, GAAP operating income range breakeven to -$30M, and non-GAAP operating earnings $140M–$170M.
Negative Updates
GAAP Profitability Decline
GAAP operating loss of $62.3M for FY2025 compared to operating earnings of $81.7M in 2024; GAAP net loss of $38.6M (−$0.68/sh) for FY2025 vs net earnings of $73.9M ($1.32/sh) in 2024.
Significant Increase in Operating Expenses
Combined R&D and SG&A rose to $591.8M for FY2025 from $430.4M in 2024 (≈+37.5%), driven by ~ $73M of acquisition-related costs and ~ $50M of Sage operating costs since close.
Cash Reduction from Acquisition
Cash and marketable securities decreased to ~$309M as of Dec 31, 2025 from $454M a year earlier (~−32%), primarily due to funding the Sage acquisition.
Non-GAAP Adjusted Earnings Down Full-Year
Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings decreased to $158.7M in 2025 from $183.7M in 2024 (≈−13.6%), reflecting higher operating costs and amortization related to acquisition activity.
Qelbree Gross-to-Net Pressure and One-time PBM Impact
Full-year gross-to-net for Qelbree ended ~49%; Q4 net sales growth (Q4 YoY +9%) was held back by a $4M unexpected PBM bill recognized in Q4 2025. Company expects 2026 gross-to-net of 50%–55%.
ONAPGO Supply Disruption and Backlog Risk
Earlier supply constraints created a backlog (~1,800 enrollment forms; >700 patients in queue for processing). While current supplier is expected to bridge through 2026 and a second supplier is planned for 2027, supply timing and regulatory filings for the second supplier introduce execution risk and uncertainty for future capacity.
Short-Term GAAP Loss in Q4
Q4 2025 GAAP operating loss of $4.0M and GAAP net loss of $4.1M (−$0.07/sh) versus Q4 2024 GAAP net earnings of $15.3M ($0.27/sh), due in part to higher Sage operating costs and intangible amortization.
Company Guidance
For 2026 Supernus guided full‑year total revenues of $840 million to $870 million (which assumes approximately $45 million to $70 million of ONAPGO net sales), combined R&D and SG&A of $620 million to $650 million, GAAP operating income/(loss) of breakeven to a $30 million loss, and non‑GAAP adjusted operating earnings of $140 million to $170 million; management also reiterated Qelbree gross‑to‑net expectations of roughly 50%–55% for 2026, noted ONAPGO new‑patient initiation began in Q1, and the company closed 2025 with about $309 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities and no debt.Supernus Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Supernus Pharmaceuticals shows strong revenue growth and a solid gross profit margin. However, it faces challenges with profitability and cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but negative return on equity and cash flow issues suggest areas for improvement.Income Statement
Supernus Pharmaceuticals shows a strong gross profit margin of over 90% in the TTM, indicating efficient production and sales processes. However, the company is currently experiencing negative net profit and EBIT margins, reflecting operational challenges and potential inefficiencies. The revenue growth rate is exceptionally high, suggesting a significant increase in sales, but the negative profitability metrics overshadow this growth.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, indicating a conservative approach to leveraging, which is a positive sign of financial stability. However, the return on equity is negative in the TTM, highlighting concerns about the company's ability to generate returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a strong capital base relative to assets.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow is positive, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating potential issues in converting income into cash. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, suggesting challenges in maintaining cash reserves. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, indicating efficient cash management relative to net income.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 681.54M | 661.82M | 607.52M | 667.24M | 579.77M | 520.40M |
| Gross Profit | 574.52M | 583.91M | 523.74M | 580.02M | 504.71M | 467.94M |
| EBITDA | 59.92M | 178.28M | 90.04M | 153.36M | 129.19M | 210.54M |
| Net Income | -19.12M | 73.86M | 1.32M | 60.71M | 53.42M | 126.95M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.42B | 1.37B | 1.28B | 1.70B | 1.69B | 1.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 281.16M | 453.61M | 254.87M | 461.33M | 339.68M | 422.53M |
| Total Debt | 31.42M | 34.27M | 41.53M | 444.76M | 427.03M | 414.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 370.09M | 332.34M | 356.16M | 816.30M | 873.30M | 759.24M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.05B | 1.04B | 921.52M | 886.20M | 815.85M | 744.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 70.75M | 171.23M | 110.53M | 116.41M | 125.08M | 134.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 71.88M | 171.95M | 111.08M | 116.83M | 127.13M | 138.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 42.78M | -189.87M | 268.73M | -216.66M | -81.91M | -34.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.49M | 12.19M | -397.88M | -10.48M | -130.42M | 3.56M |
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Positive
56.32
Price Trends
50.28
Positive
49.28
Positive
43.42
Positive
Market Momentum
0.95
Negative
71.39
Negative
69.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUPN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 56.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.61, above the 50-day MA of 50.28, and above the 200-day MA of 43.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.39 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SUPN.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis
Supernus Pharmaceuticals disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Supernus Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.27B | 12.40 | 14.84% | ― | -0.03% | -27.66% | |
66 Neutral | $1.72B | 46.79 | 7.83% | ― | 48.87% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $3.06B | -82.35 | -1.86% | ― | 4.54% | -130.59% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $2.01B | -38.25 | -0.65% | 8.48% | -2.55% | 66.00% | |
42 Neutral | $1.23B | 17.76 | ― | ― | 55.38% | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals
56.32
24.56
77.33%
PRGO
Perrigo Company
14.41
-8.43
-36.90%
ANIP
ANI Pharmaceuticals
76.30
21.72
39.79%
AMPH
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals
27.97
-3.52
-11.18%
ALVO
Alvotech
4.09
-7.37
-64.31%
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsProduct-Related Announcements
Supernus Faces Supply Constraints Amid High ONAPGO Demand
Neutral
Nov 4, 2025
On November 4, 2025, Supernus Pharmaceuticals announced that due to stronger than expected demand for ONAPGO, supplier constraints are impacting the company’s ability to fully meet this demand. As a result, the company is prioritizing care for patients currently on ONAPGO by pausing delivery to new patients. The company is working to build adequate inventory and resume new patient initiations as soon as possible. Additionally, Supernus reported a 52% increase in combined revenues of its four growth products in the third quarter of 2025, driven by an increase in net sales of Qelbree and GOCOVRI, and the addition of sales from ZURZUVAE and ONAPGO. The company also completed the acquisition of Sage Therapeutics, Inc. on July 31, 2025, and increased its full-year 2025 revenue guidance.
The most recent analyst rating on (SUPN) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Supernus Pharmaceuticals stock, see the SUPN Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.