DaVita (DVA)
NYSE:DVA
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DaVita
(NYSE:DVA)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$151.00
▲(3.72% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (very high debt and negative equity), despite resilient operating performance and strong free cash flow. Earnings call guidance and IKC progress are supportive but tempered by volume/mortality, payer, cyber, and cost headwinds. Technically, the uptrend is strong, but indicators show overextended momentum, and valuation appears reasonable based on the P/E provided.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Sustained free cash flow (~$1.0–1.31B range) provides durable internal funding for operations, capex, and capital returns. Over 2–6 months this supports liquidity and the ability to service debt, fund IKC/home-care investments, and maintain disciplined capital allocation despite cyclical pressures.
Negative Factors
Leverage and Negative Equity
Very high debt and negative equity materially weaken the capital structure, constraining refinancing flexibility and raising interest-service and covenant risks. This structural leverage increases vulnerability to rate or operational shocks and limits strategic optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Sustained free cash flow (~$1.0–1.31B range) provides durable internal funding for operations, capex, and capital returns. Over 2–6 months this supports liquidity and the ability to service debt, fund IKC/home-care investments, and maintain disciplined capital allocation despite cyclical pressures.
Read all positive factors
DaVita (DVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.72B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)889.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.4
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth5.14%
EPS Growth4.37%
CountryUS
Employees76,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.40
Shares Outstanding66,800,000
10 Day Avg. Volume889,880
30 Day Avg. Volume889,354
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.11
Price to Book (P/B)-15.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.72
P/FCF Ratio7.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$162.50Price Target Upside11.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)13.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.96B
DaVita Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
DaVita Inc. provides kidney dialysis services for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure. The company operates kidney dialysis centers and provides related lab services in outpatient dialysis centers. It also provides outpatient, hospital ...
How the Company Makes Money
DaVita generates revenue primarily through its dialysis services, which are reimbursed by Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance providers. The majority of its revenue comes from providing in-center hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis treat...
DaVita Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down income across different business areas, showing where the company is earning the most and identifying growth or risk areas.
Breaks down income across different business areas, showing where the company is earning the most and identifying growth or risk areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDaVita Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear operational and financial progress—IKC clinical success and first profitable year, solid full-year adjusted OI and EPS, strong cash generation, disciplined capital returns, and constructive 2026 guidance—with persistent near-term challenges including treatment-volume pressure driven by elevated mortality, residual cyber-related losses, rising patient care costs (PCC +5.9% YoY), and payer headwinds from the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits (~$40M in 2026). Management emphasized actionable clinical initiatives and gave explicit multi-year targets, and the positive results and forward guidance slightly outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
IKC Clinical Outcomes and Profitability
Integrated Kidney Care (IKC) delivered superior clinical outcomes (IKC patients 35% more likely to start dialysis with permanent vascular access, costs 3x lower in first 180 days, >10% improvement in treatment adherence) and fewer hospitalizations; IKC reported its first profitable full year in 2025 (full year adjusted operating income $22 million; Q4 adjusted OI $46 million) and management expects an incremental $20 million of IKC operating income growth in 2026.
Negative Updates
Treatment Volume Pressure and Mortality Headwind
U.S. dialysis treatments declined ~20 basis points in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024 and declined 1.1% for full year 2025. Management cites elevated mortality as a near-term headwind to treatment growth and is not modeling mortality improvement in 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
IKC Clinical Outcomes and Profitability
Integrated Kidney Care (IKC) delivered superior clinical outcomes (IKC patients 35% more likely to start dialysis with permanent vascular access, costs 3x lower in first 180 days, >10% improvement in treatment adherence) and fewer hospitalizations; IKC reported its first profitable full year in 2025 (full year adjusted operating income $22 million; Q4 adjusted OI $46 million) and management expects an incremental $20 million of IKC operating income growth in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
DaVita guided 2026 adjusted operating income of $2.085B–$2.235B (midpoint $2.16B, +3.2% at midpoint) and adjusted EPS of $13.60–$15.00 (midpoint ~$14.30, ~+33% at midpoint), with free cash flow $1.0B–$1.25B (midpoint $1.125B, which is before the ~$200M Elara investment), Q1 adjusted OI expected to be ~20% of the year (~$430M at the midpoint), and U.S. dialysis assumptions of roughly flat treatment volume to 2025 (Q1 headwind/negative YoY expected), RPT growth of 1%–2% (including an estimated $40M headwind from expiration of enhanced premium tax credits offsetting the prior ~$45M cyber RPT hit), total U.S. dialysis cost growth of 1.25%–2.25% (driving ~+1.5% OI for U.S. dialysis at the midpoint), IKC and International each contributing ~1% to enterprise OI growth (IKC incremental operating income +$20M in 2026), other income ~+$10M, debt expense down $20M–$40M, noncontrolling interest ≈16% of U.S. dialysis OI, effective tax rate 24.5%–26.5%, and continued share repurchases (2025 repurchases ≈13M shares for ~$1.8B) with year-end leverage at 3.26x consolidated EBITDA (midpoint of 3.0–3.5x target).DaVita Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 13.64B | 12.82B | 12.14B | 11.61B | 11.62B |
| Gross Profit | 3.68B | 4.22B | 3.82B | 3.40B | 3.65B |
| EBITDA | 2.64B | 2.72B | 2.32B | 2.06B | 2.48B |
| Net Income | 746.80M | 936.34M | 691.53M | 560.40M | 978.45M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 17.48B | 17.29B | 16.89B | 16.93B | 17.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 782.05M | 846.00M | 391.67M | 321.78M | 484.21M |
| Total Debt | 15.05B | 12.07B | 11.12B | 11.82B | 11.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.32B | 15.19B | 14.15B | 14.70B | 14.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | -651.08M | 121.12M | 1.06B | 712.33M | 755.51M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.31B | 1.47B | 1.49B | 961.14M | 1.29B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.89B | 2.02B | 2.06B | 1.56B | 1.93B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -654.95M | -771.43M | -771.80M | -630.35M | -784.73M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.37B | -816.94M | -1.17B | -1.12B | -1.08B |
DaVita Technical Analysis
Neutral
145.58
Price Trends
143.04
Positive
129.43
Positive
131.96
Positive
Market Momentum
1.70
Positive
43.55
Neutral
27.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DVA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 145.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 151.67, above the 50-day MA of 143.04, and above the 200-day MA of 131.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DVA.
DaVita Risk Analysis
DaVita disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. DaVita reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
DaVita Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $105.51B | 15.88 | -140.78% | 0.61% | 6.82% | 15.82% | |
74 Outperform | $11.43B | 29.02 | 16.58% | 0.14% | 18.61% | 35.76% | |
70 Outperform | $9.68B | 18.84 | 24.48% | 0.65% | 11.13% | 27.53% | |
63 Neutral | $9.72B | 10.44 | -160.63% | ― | 5.14% | 4.37% | |
62 Neutral | $16.36B | 12.83 | 34.82% | ― | -0.56% | -53.50% | |
60 Neutral | $12.93B | 12.07 | 7.13% | 3.29% | 4.09% | 13.17% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
DVA
DaVita
150.12
3.51
2.39%
FMS
Fresenius Medical Care
22.48
-0.31
-1.36%
HCA
HCA Healthcare
483.92
156.49
47.79%
EHC
Encompass Health
105.15
9.08
9.45%
THC
Tenet Healthcare
190.28
70.56
58.94%
ENSG
The Ensign Group
197.98
73.53
59.09%
DaVita Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
DaVita Amends Credit Agreement for $3.5 Billion Loan
Positive
Nov 25, 2025
On November 24, 2025, DaVita Inc. amended its Credit Agreement to establish new secured term loan and revolving credit facilities totaling up to $3.5 billion. This financial restructuring aims to refinance existing debt and support general corpora...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.