Krispy Kreme (DNUT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $638.58M
• Dividend Yield: 3.89%
• Average Volume (3M): 12.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 238.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: -11.55%
• EPS Growth: -757.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 46
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): -0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 171,200,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,810,288
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 12,185,917
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.03
• 1Y Price Target: $4.24
• Price Target Upside: 17.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.50 ▼(-2.78% Downside)

Krispy Kreme's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and high leverage, which are the most impactful factors. While technical indicators show some short-term strength, the negative valuation metrics and mixed earnings call sentiment balance the outlook. Positive corporate events provide some optimism, but the financial performance remains a critical concern.

Positive Factors

Strategy and Restructuring

The company's strategy includes restructuring and re-franchising efforts to free up cash, signaling a focus on balance sheet repair.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

2Q adj EBITDA was 33% below the low end of guidance, showing significant underperformance.

Market Confidence

Cutting the dividend is the proper move for a business with this current level of uncertainty, but this signal to the market is likely to keep investors sidelined.

Partnership Termination

Termination of the MCD partnership has created uncertainty and added costs that drag on profits.

Turnaround Plan

The execution risk of the turnaround plan remains high as underlying business trends continue to decline.

Krispy Kreme Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates through an omni-channel business model to provide doughnut experiences and produce doughnuts. The company operates through three segments: U.S. and Canada, International, and Market Development. It also produces cookies, brownies, cookie cakes, ice cream, cookie-wiches, and cold milk, as well as doughnut mixes, other ingredients, and doughnut-making equipment. As of January 2, 2022, the company had 1,810 Krispy Kreme and Insomnia Cookies-branded shops in approximately 30 countries worldwide, which include 971 company owned and 839 franchised. It serves through doughnut shops, delivered fresh daily outlets, ecommerce, and delivery business. The company was formerly known as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. and changed its name to Krispy Kreme, Inc. in May 2021. Krispy Kreme, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

Krispy Kreme generates revenue through the sale of its doughnuts and complementary products like coffee and beverages. The company's revenue model is primarily based on retail sales from its company-owned stores, franchise operations, and e-commerce platforms. Krispy Kreme also earns income through wholesale operations by providing products to retail partners such as grocery stores and convenience chains. Significant partnerships with retailers and franchisees help expand its market reach, contributing to its earnings. Additionally, the company leverages its brand strength and promotional activities to drive sales and maintain customer loyalty.

Krispy Kreme Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Krispy Kreme is facing financial challenges with declining revenues, negative profitability, and high leverage. The gross profit margin remains strong, but operational inefficiencies and cash flow issues are significant concerns. High debt levels pose a risk to financial stability.

Income Statement

Krispy Kreme's income statement shows a concerning trend with declining revenues and negative profit margins in the TTM period. The gross profit margin remains strong at 75.46%, indicating efficient production, but the net profit margin is deeply negative at -29.34%, reflecting significant losses. Revenue growth has turned negative, indicating a decline in sales compared to previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.05 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholder investments. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high debt levels suggest a lower proportion of equity in the capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a negative free cash flow, although there is a positive growth rate of 27.19% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.04, indicating weak cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is significantly negative, suggesting cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.54B	1.67B	1.69B	1.53B	1.38B	1.12B
Gross Profit	1.16B	1.26B	1.24B	1.12B	1.03B	242.67M
EBITDA	-267.07M	213.43M	135.24M	136.20M	140.52M	85.78M
Net Income	-451.42M	3.10M	-37.92M	-16.00M	-24.51M	-64.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.63B	3.07B	3.24B	3.15B	3.15B	3.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	21.26M	28.96M	38.19M	35.37M	38.56M	38.51M
Total Debt	1.42B	1.35B	1.40B	1.24B	1.18B	1.59B
Total Liabilities	1.91B	1.91B	1.98B	1.85B	1.81B	2.21B
Stockholders Equity	693.59M	1.13B	1.17B	1.20B	1.23B	684.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-137.23M	-74.96M	-75.88M	28.10M	21.73M	-69.15M
Operating Cash Flow	-23.07M	45.83M	45.54M	139.82M	141.22M	28.68M
Investing Cash Flow	115.38M	19.28M	-112.59M	-121.47M	-153.41M	-168.13M
Financing Cash Flow	-97.95M	-73.95M	71.86M	-16.84M	16.10M	139.44M

Krispy Kreme Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNUT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.49, above the 50-day MA of 3.36, and below the 200-day MA of 5.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DNUT.

Krispy Kreme Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	72 Outperform	$480.60M	9.37	11.87%	2.77%	3.94%	12.50%
NGVC	70 Outperform	$942.95M	21.66	23.58%	1.16%	8.51%	40.83%
WMK	69 Neutral	$1.82B	18.28	7.86%	1.84%	2.49%	15.99%
GO	66 Neutral	$1.83B	234.93	0.68%	―	8.47%	-85.17%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.46B	14.47	-3.60%	3.13%	2.63%	-6.18%
IMKTA	52 Neutral	$1.25B	22.69	3.58%	0.98%	-7.96%	-64.67%
DNUT	50 Neutral	$638.58M	238.55	-49.24%	3.89%	-11.55%	-757.68%

Krispy Kreme Corporate Events

Krispy Kreme Appoints New CFO Raphael Duvivier

Krispy Kreme Inc. announced the appointment of Raphael Duvivier as Chief Financial Officer, effective July 11, 2025, with a comprehensive compensation package including salary, bonuses, and long-term incentives. Additionally, the company approved retention grants for key executives and a new cash bonus opportunity for the second half of 2025, aiming to strengthen leadership stability and align performance incentives with company goals.

Krispy Kreme Announces Leadership Changes Amid Expansion Focus

On June 27, 2025, Krispy Kreme announced the resignations of CFO Jeremiah Ashukian and Chief Growth Officer David Skena, effective July 11, 2025, both leaving to pursue other opportunities without any disagreements with the company. Raphael Duvivier, who joined Krispy Kreme in 2019 and held various leadership roles, will succeed Ashukian as CFO. Additionally, Alison Holder will be promoted to Chief Brand and Product Officer, succeeding Skena. These leadership changes aim to support Krispy Kreme’s focus on sustainable, profitable growth and U.S. expansion.

Krispy Kreme Ends Partnership with McDonald’s USA

Krispy Kreme and McDonald’s USA have jointly decided to end their partnership, effective July 2, 2025, due to the unsustainability of the business model for Krispy Kreme. Despite successful collaboration in approximately 2,400 McDonald’s restaurants, Krispy Kreme aims to focus on profitable U.S. expansion and international franchise growth. The partnership was a small part of McDonald’s breakfast business, which remains a core focus for the company.

Krispy Kreme Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting

On June 17, 2025, Krispy Kreme, Inc. held its virtual annual meeting of stockholders, where several key decisions were made. The stockholders elected nine directors for a one-year term, approved an advisory resolution on executive compensation, and ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025. These decisions are likely to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.

Krispy Kreme Sells Stake in Insomnia Cookies

On June 10, 2025, Krispy Kreme announced the sale of its remaining stake in Insomnia Cookies Holdings, LLC, receiving $75 million in cash proceeds. This transaction marks a strategic move to de-leverage the company’s balance sheet and focus on profitable U.S. expansion and international franchise growth, as stated by CEO Josh Charlesworth.