Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT)
NASDAQ:DNUT
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Krispy Kreme
(NASDAQ:DNUT)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-16.90% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score reflects weak current financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline, deep losses, and inconsistent free cash flow) partially offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook (EBITDA improvement, lower capex, and targeted positive free cash flow with deleveraging). Technical signals are neutral-to-soft, and valuation is constrained by losses (negative P/E) with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Capital-light refranchising & deleveraging
Krispy Kreme is shifting toward a capital-light franchised model via refranchising and JV moves, converting owned stores to franchise/JV partners and using proceeds to cut debt. This structurally reduces future capex needs, improves liquidity and enables faster, lower-risk network expansion over years.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue and profitability decline
A >50% TTM revenue decline and deep net losses indicate a substantial erosion of scale and pricing leverage. Persistently lower top line makes fixed costs harder to cover, undermines franchise economics and long-term margin recovery, and raises execution risk for returning to steady profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capital-light refranchising & deleveraging
Krispy Kreme is shifting toward a capital-light franchised model via refranchising and JV moves, converting owned stores to franchise/JV partners and using proceeds to cut debt. This structurally reduces future capex needs, improves liquidity and enables faster, lower-risk network expansion over years.
Read all positive factors
Krispy Kreme (DNUT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$544.78M
Dividend Yield3.34%
Average Volume (3M)2.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth-5.22%
EPS Growth-2258.17%
CountryUS
Employees21,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.98
Shares Outstanding172,400,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,845,354
30 Day Avg. Volume2,294,986
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.47
P/FCF Ratio-11.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.73
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.63Price Target Upside28.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)>-0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.40B
Krispy Kreme Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates through an omni-channel business model to provide doughnut experiences and produce doughnuts. The company operates through three segments: U.S. and Canada, International, and Market Deve...
How the Company Makes Money
Krispy Kreme makes money primarily by selling doughnuts (its core product) and related items through multiple channels. (1) Company-operated sales: Revenue is generated from direct-to-consumer sales at company-owned shops and other company-run poi...
Krispy Kreme Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive outlook: the company demonstrated meaningful profitability improvement (38% adjusted EBITDA growth), generated positive free cash flow in Q1, advanced refranchising to reduce capital intensity and debt, and provided constructive 2026 guidance (net revenue $1.25B–$1.35B; adjusted EBITDA $140M–$150M). Headwinds include a modest decline in net revenue (-2.2%) and localized declines in some segments (U.S. organic revenue -4%, International EBITDA -2.9%) largely related to strategic refranchising and prior door closures. Given the stronger set of measurable improvements in profitability, cash flow, deleveraging progress and operational initiatives versus the manageable revenue and regional challenges, the overall tone is positive.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $33.1M in Q1, up 38% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth driven by productivity initiatives and corporate cost control.
Negative Updates
Net Revenue Decline
Net revenue of $367M in Q1, down 2.2% year-over-year, driven in part by strategic closure of underperforming doors completed in Q3 2025.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $33.1M in Q1, up 38% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth driven by productivity initiatives and corporate cost control.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Krispy Kreme's 2026 guidance calls for net revenue of $1.25–$1.35 billion, system‑wide sales growth of 2–4% in constant currency from $1.96 billion in 2025 (to just over $2.0 billion), adjusted EBITDA of $140–$150 million (the outlook includes completed refranchisings with an estimated ~$15 million of annualized EBITDA benefit), CapEx of $50–$60 million (about a 50% reduction YoY), positive free cash flow of more than $15 million and a net leverage target below 5.5x; management also expects at least 100 shop openings this year (26 opened in Q1), a system of >2,100 locations across 42 countries, franchise sales mix up to ~42% (targeting ~50% in 2027), liquidity of >$300 million, and bank leverage below 4x (reducing the credit facility rate by 25 bps). Q1 metrics cited alongside the guidance included net revenue of $367 million (−2.2% YoY), system‑wide sales of $485.3 million (+0.7% constant currency ex‑McDonald’s), adjusted EBITDA of $33.1 million (+38% YoY), U.S. average weekly sales of $685 (+16.7% YoY) and U.S. adjusted EBITDA of $25.5 million (+61%).Krispy Kreme Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.51B | 1.52B | 1.67B | 1.69B | 1.53B | 1.38B |
| Gross Profit | 728.14M | 213.95M | 1.26B | 1.24B | 1.12B | 1.03B |
| EBITDA | -328.04M | -341.73M | 213.43M | 135.24M | 136.20M | 140.52M |
| Net Income | -510.67M | -515.77M | 3.10M | -37.92M | -15.62M | -24.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.39B | 2.59B | 3.07B | 3.24B | 3.15B | 3.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 74.22M | -42.39M | 28.96M | 38.19M | 35.37M | 38.56M |
| Total Debt | 444.73M | 1.42B | 1.35B | 1.40B | 1.24B | 1.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.75B | 1.92B | 1.91B | 1.98B | 1.85B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 631.79M | 656.20M | 1.13B | 1.17B | 1.20B | 1.23B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.54M | -64.00M | -74.96M | -75.88M | 28.10M | 21.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 75.27M | 33.92M | 45.83M | 45.54M | 139.82M | 141.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 113.72M | -12.14M | 19.28M | -112.59M | -120.88M | -153.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -133.01M | -7.76M | -73.95M | 71.86M | -17.43M | 16.10M |
Krispy Kreme Technical Analysis
Negative
3.61
Price Trends
3.51
Negative
3.52
Negative
3.62
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
37.73
Neutral
6.20
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNUT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.61, above the 50-day MA of 3.51, and below the 200-day MA of 3.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DNUT.
Krispy Kreme Risk Analysis
Krispy Kreme disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Krispy Kreme reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Krispy Kreme Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $618.57M | 7.26 | 11.37% | 2.63% | 4.60% | 4.65% | |
66 Neutral | $671.18M | 11.11 | 22.26% | 1.99% | 3.09% | 16.13% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $1.60B | 17.42 | 6.41% | 0.93% | -0.28% | 68.37% | |
52 Neutral | $544.78M | -5.16 | -76.98% | 3.34% | -5.22% | -2258.17% | |
49 Neutral | $551.02M | 30.83 | 23.09% | ― | 5.76% | -24.89% | |
48 Neutral | $750.82M | -0.99 | -36.58% | ― | 6.04% | -2370.84% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
DNUT
Krispy Kreme
3.32
0.36
12.16%
IMKTA
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45.48%
VLGEA
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46.11
10.51
29.52%
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29.35
-20.11
-40.66%
GO
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8.13
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DDL
Dingdong
2.59
0.48
22.75%
Krispy Kreme Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Krispy Kreme strengthens leadership with new board, CFO terms
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Krispy Kreme’s board elected David Shear and former Kraft Heinz Global Chief People Officer Melissa Werneck as independent directors, effective April 2, 2026, with Werneck joining the Compensation, Nomination, and Governanc...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Krispy Kreme Advances Refranchising Strategy with WKS Deal
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Krispy Kreme completed a refranchising transaction with WKS Restaurant Group that lifted WKS’s stake in their Western U.S. joint venture to 80% while reducing Krispy Kreme’s interest to 20%. The deal brought the comp...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.