Krispy Kreme (DNUT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $563.09M
• Dividend Yield: 3.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.53
• Revenue Growth: -10.40%
• EPS Growth: -1904.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 172,200,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,224,029
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,538,943
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.65
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.02
• 1Y Price Target: $4.13
• Price Target Upside: 26.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.47B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.50 ▲(7.03% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is held down primarily by weak and volatile financial performance (sharp 2025 revenue/profitability deterioration, high leverage, and inconsistent free cash flow). Technicals are mixed with negative momentum indicators despite price trading above key moving averages. Valuation is supported by the higher dividend yield, and the latest earnings call adds modest positivity from turnaround/deleveraging progress, but not enough to offset the underlying financial risks.

Positive Factors

Brand & multi-channel distribution

Krispy Kreme’s diversified channels — company-owned shops, Delivered Fresh Daily retail distribution, and franchise partners — provide recurring demand and broad consumer access. This structure supports scalable revenue growth with lower incremental capex through franchising and reduces single-channel risk over months.

High and stable gross margins

Persistently strong gross margins (mid‑70%) create a durable profit buffer at the product level. That margin strength helps the company absorb input cost variability, supports profitable refranchising economics, and increases the chance that fixed-cost deleveraging will translate into meaningful operating leverage as volumes recover.

Turnaround actions improving cash & returns

The company’s turnaround (refranchising, exiting underperforming doors) coincided with 17% adjusted EBITDA growth, a quarter of positive free cash flow and reported excess liquidity >$200M. These moves materially improve financial flexibility, support deleveraging, and enable reinvestment in higher-return franchise expansion over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Revenue weakness & volatile profitability

Top-line deterioration and a material profitability decline in 2025 (large net loss, negative EBITDA) signal structural demand or mix issues. Continued revenue volatility hampers consistent margin recovery, reduces operating cash available for strategic initiatives, and elevates execution risk for the turnaround over the next several months.

Historically high leverage

Debt historically near or above equity constrains financial flexibility and increases interest burden sensitivity to operating shocks. Elevated leverage limits ability to invest behind growth or absorb refranchising execution hiccups, making sustained deleveraging a prerequisite for durable earnings improvement.

Inconsistent free cash flow generation

Free cash flow has been negative in most recent years and operating cash flows fell in 2023–2025. Unreliable cash generation increases dependence on external financing, slows balance-sheet repair and franchise investment, and raises refinancing and operational risk during the multi-quarter turnaround.

Krispy Kreme Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates through an omni-channel business model to provide doughnut experiences and produce doughnuts. The company operates through three segments: U.S. and Canada, International, and Market Development. It also produces cookies, brownies, cookie cakes, ice cream, cookie-wiches, and cold milk, as well as doughnut mixes, other ingredients, and doughnut-making equipment. As of January 2, 2022, the company had 1,810 Krispy Kreme and Insomnia Cookies-branded shops in approximately 30 countries worldwide, which include 971 company owned and 839 franchised. It serves through doughnut shops, delivered fresh daily outlets, ecommerce, and delivery business. The company was formerly known as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. and changed its name to Krispy Kreme, Inc. in May 2021. Krispy Kreme, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

Krispy Kreme makes money primarily by selling doughnuts and related items through three main channels: (1) company-owned operations, (2) franchise operations, and (3) sales tied to retail distribution. 1) Company-owned operations (direct-to-consumer sales): The company earns revenue from sales of doughnuts, beverages, and other menu items sold directly to consumers at company-operated Krispy Kreme shops and other company-run points of sale. This includes in-shop purchases and other formats where Krispy Kreme controls the retail experience and recognizes the full retail sales price as revenue. 2) Retail distribution (Delivered Fresh Daily / “DFD” points of access): A major part of Krispy Kreme’s model is producing doughnuts and delivering them to third-party retailers (for example, grocery and convenience stores) where consumers buy the products. Krispy Kreme earns revenue from selling product into these accounts (wholesale-style revenue), while expanding reach beyond its own shops. 3) Franchise model (royalties, fees, and product/equipment sales where applicable): Krispy Kreme expands internationally and in certain markets through franchisees. The company earns franchise-related revenue typically through ongoing royalties and other franchise fees tied to franchisee operations. Depending on contractual arrangements, it may also generate revenue from selling mix/ingredients, branded products, or equipment to franchisees (specifics vary by agreement). Key factors supporting earnings: The brand’s demand-driven core product (fresh doughnuts), a hub-and-spoke production-and-distribution system that supports frequent deliveries to many access points, and franchise partnerships that allow geographic expansion with lower company capital requirements than fully company-owned buildouts.

Krispy Kreme Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement quality is weak with sharply lower 2025 revenue and a material profitability deterioration (large net loss and negative EBITDA) despite strong gross margins. Balance sheet leverage has been high with weak/negative returns, and 2025 balance sheet data appears anomalous, adding uncertainty. Cash flow is pressured by persistently negative free cash flow in most years and reduced operating cash generation versus earlier periods.

Income Statement

Revenue has weakened recently (2025 down sharply versus 2024, and 2024 slightly down versus 2023), and profitability deteriorated materially in 2025 with a large net loss and negative EBITDA. While gross margin has remained strong and stable in the mid‑70% range over the past several years, operating and bottom-line performance has been volatile—small profit in 2024, losses in most other years, and a significant step-down in 2025—indicating the cost structure and/or non-operating items are pressuring earnings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has generally been high, with debt running around or above equity in most years (roughly ~1.0–1.2x debt-to-equity from 2021–2024, and notably higher in 2020). Equity has been positive and fairly steady through 2024, which helps support the capital structure, but returns on equity have been weak to negative in most years, consistent with inconsistent profitability. 2025 balance sheet figures appear anomalous (negative assets and zero reported debt/equity), which increases uncertainty and limits confidence in the latest-year balance sheet trend.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has remained positive in most years, but it has been low in 2023–2025 versus 2021–2022, indicating reduced cash generation capacity. Free cash flow is a key weakness: it is negative in most years (2020 and 2023–2025), with only modestly positive free cash flow in 2021–2022; 2025 also shows a sharp decline in free cash flow versus 2024. Overall, cash generation does not consistently cover investment needs, which can increase reliance on external financing over time.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.52B	1.67B	1.69B	1.53B	1.38B
Gross Profit	213.95M	1.26B	1.24B	1.12B	1.03B
EBITDA	-341.73M	213.43M	135.24M	136.20M	140.52M
Net Income	-515.77M	3.10M	-37.92M	-15.62M	-24.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.59B	3.07B	3.24B	3.15B	3.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	-42.39M	28.96M	38.19M	35.37M	38.56M
Total Debt	1.82B	1.35B	1.40B	1.24B	1.18B
Total Liabilities	1.92B	1.91B	1.98B	1.85B	1.81B
Stockholders Equity	656.20M	1.13B	1.17B	1.20B	1.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-64.00M	-74.96M	-75.88M	28.10M	21.73M
Operating Cash Flow	33.92M	45.83M	45.54M	139.82M	141.22M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.14M	19.28M	-112.59M	-120.88M	-153.41M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.76M	-73.95M	71.86M	-17.43M	16.10M

Krispy Kreme Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.27
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNUT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.29, below the 50-day MA of 3.46, and below the 200-day MA of 3.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DNUT.

Krispy Kreme Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	76 Outperform	$563.62M	7.26	11.37%	2.63%	3.88%	7.71%
DDL	67 Neutral	$567.94M	17.51	23.09%	―	8.34%	40.20%
NGVC	66 Neutral	$589.65M	12.71	23.11%	1.99%	7.19%	35.90%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
IMKTA	60 Neutral	$1.65B	11.86	5.93%	0.93%	-5.42%	-20.80%
DNUT	49 Neutral	$563.09M	-6.43	-66.05%	3.34%	-10.40%	-1904.10%
GO	45 Neutral	$628.18M	-4.43	-19.78%	―	7.22%	-108.99%

Krispy Kreme Corporate Events

Krispy Kreme Announces Leadership Changes and Board Resignation

Krispy Kreme disclosed that Chief People Officer Theresa Zandhuis plans to retire on or around March 31, 2026, with a separation package covering a year of salary, COBRA premiums, and pro-rata equity vesting while forfeiting a July 2025 retention grant, aligning with the company’s orderly succession planning. The company also reported that director Gordon von Bretten resigned effective January 31, 2026, citing his new role at Coty Inc., and emphasized the move was unrelated to any board disputes.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.

Krispy Kreme to Refranchise and Sell Japan Operations

On December 18, 2025, Krispy Kreme Doughnut Corporation agreed to sell all shares of its Japanese subsidiary, Krispy Kreme Doughnut Japan Co. Ltd., to Lei Inc., a special purpose vehicle formed by a fund of Japan-based private equity firm Unison Capital, in a deal valuing the unit based on its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA and expected to generate roughly $65 million in cash proceeds after customary adjustments. The transaction, which Krispy Kreme announced publicly on December 19, 2025 and expects to close in the first quarter of 2026 subject to standard conditions, forms the company’s first international refranchising move under its August turnaround plan, shifting its Japan operations to a franchise model under a new development and franchise agreement with Unison, and is intended to advance its refranchising strategy, strengthen financial flexibility, and reduce debt while preserving and potentially expanding the brand’s 89-store, 300-point presence in the Japanese market.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.