Krispy Kreme (DNUT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $733.16M
• Dividend Yield: 3.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.48
• Revenue Growth: -10.40%
• EPS Growth: -1904.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 171,300,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,986,809
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,405,385
• PEG Ratio: -4.84
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.97
• P/FCF Ratio: -21.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.98
• 1Y Price Target: $4.50
• Price Target Upside: 5.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(17.10% Upside)

Krispy Kreme's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability being the most critical issues. However, positive technical indicators and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call provide some optimism. The valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings, but the dividend yield offers a modest income stream. The company's efforts to improve financial health and strategic growth initiatives are key to its future performance.

Positive Factors

International Market Expansion

International expansion is crucial for Krispy Kreme's growth strategy, diversifying revenue streams and reducing reliance on the U.S. market.

Strategic Refranchising

Refranchising in Japan will enhance financial flexibility, reduce debt, and focus resources on core markets, supporting long-term stability.

Positive Free Cash Flow

Positive cash flow indicates improved financial health, enabling reinvestment in growth initiatives and debt reduction, crucial for sustainability.

Negative Factors

Declining U.S. Organic Revenue

Declining U.S. revenue poses a challenge, as it is a key market. Addressing this is vital for reversing overall revenue declines and improving profitability.

Overall Revenue Decline

Overall revenue decline reflects challenges in maintaining sales momentum, necessitating strategic adjustments to drive growth and profitability.

Weak Cash Generation

Weak cash generation limits the company's ability to invest in growth and manage debt, impacting long-term financial stability and operational flexibility.

Krispy Kreme Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates through an omni-channel business model to provide doughnut experiences and produce doughnuts. The company operates through three segments: U.S. and Canada, International, and Market Development. It also produces cookies, brownies, cookie cakes, ice cream, cookie-wiches, and cold milk, as well as doughnut mixes, other ingredients, and doughnut-making equipment. As of January 2, 2022, the company had 1,810 Krispy Kreme and Insomnia Cookies-branded shops in approximately 30 countries worldwide, which include 971 company owned and 839 franchised. It serves through doughnut shops, delivered fresh daily outlets, ecommerce, and delivery business. The company was formerly known as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. and changed its name to Krispy Kreme, Inc. in May 2021. Krispy Kreme, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

Krispy Kreme generates revenue primarily through the sale of its doughnuts and beverages at retail locations. Its revenue model includes direct sales from company-owned stores and franchise royalties from franchisee operations. Key revenue streams consist of in-store sales, wholesale distribution to grocery chains and convenience stores, and special event catering. The company also benefits from partnerships with various retailers and coffee distributors to expand its market reach and product availability. Additionally, Krispy Kreme engages in promotional collaborations and limited-time offers that drive traffic and customer engagement, contributing to its overall earnings.

Krispy Kreme Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Krispy Kreme faces significant financial challenges. The income statement shows declining revenues and profitability, with a negative revenue growth rate of -29.7% and a deeply negative net profit margin of -33.27%. The balance sheet reflects improved leverage but poor returns on equity, with a negative ROE of -56.71%. Cash flow analysis reveals weak cash generation, with negative free cash flow and a low operating cash flow to net income ratio. The company needs to focus on reversing revenue declines, improving operational efficiency, and enhancing cash flow.

Income Statement

Krispy Kreme's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM data shows a negative revenue growth rate of -29.7%, indicating a substantial decline in sales. The gross profit margin remains relatively high at 75.36%, but the net profit margin is deeply negative at -33.27%, reflecting significant losses. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies. The company needs to address its declining revenues and improve profitability to enhance its financial health.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.79 in the TTM period, indicating better leverage management compared to previous years. However, the return on equity is negative at -56.71%, reflecting poor profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 25.82%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing. Overall, while leverage has improved, profitability remains a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates significant challenges. The TTM free cash flow is negative, and the free cash flow growth rate is -28%, showing a deterioration in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.036, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is highly negative, indicating that the company is struggling to convert its earnings into cash. Improving cash flow generation is critical for financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.53B	1.67B	1.69B	1.53B	1.38B	1.12B
Gross Profit	960.28M	1.26B	1.24B	1.12B	1.03B	242.67M
EBITDA	-337.49M	213.43M	135.24M	136.20M	140.52M	85.78M
Net Income	-510.43M	3.10M	-37.92M	-15.62M	-24.51M	-64.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.60B	3.07B	3.24B	3.15B	3.15B	3.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	31.15M	28.96M	38.19M	35.37M	38.56M	38.51M
Total Debt	1.44B	1.35B	1.40B	1.24B	1.18B	1.59B
Total Liabilities	1.91B	1.91B	1.98B	1.85B	1.81B	2.21B
Stockholders Equity	672.05M	1.13B	1.17B	1.20B	1.23B	684.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-98.81M	-74.96M	-75.88M	28.10M	21.73M	-69.15M
Operating Cash Flow	15.95M	45.83M	45.54M	139.82M	141.22M	28.68M
Investing Cash Flow	-22.05M	19.28M	-112.59M	-120.88M	-153.41M	-168.13M
Financing Cash Flow	15.80M	-73.95M	71.86M	-17.43M	16.10M	139.44M

Krispy Kreme Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.27
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNUT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.33, above the 50-day MA of 4.12, and above the 200-day MA of 3.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DNUT.

Krispy Kreme Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMKTA	72 Outperform	$1.29B	15.79	5.29%	0.93%	-5.42%	-20.80%
VLGEA	70 Outperform	$454.03M	8.91	11.22%	2.63%	3.88%	7.71%
NGVC	70 Neutral	$571.45M	12.54	24.02%	1.99%	7.19%	35.90%
DDL	67 Neutral	$619.96M	16.55	33.30%	―	8.34%	40.20%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DNUT	57 Neutral	$733.16M	-1.43	-55.07%	3.34%	-10.40%	-1904.10%
GO	52 Neutral	$937.21M	-200.63	-0.37%	―	7.22%	-108.99%

Krispy Kreme Corporate Events

Krispy Kreme to Refranchise and Sell Japan Operations

On December 18, 2025, Krispy Kreme Doughnut Corporation agreed to sell all shares of its Japanese subsidiary, Krispy Kreme Doughnut Japan Co. Ltd., to Lei Inc., a special purpose vehicle formed by a fund of Japan-based private equity firm Unison Capital, in a deal valuing the unit based on its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA and expected to generate roughly $65 million in cash proceeds after customary adjustments. The transaction, which Krispy Kreme announced publicly on December 19, 2025 and expects to close in the first quarter of 2026 subject to standard conditions, forms the company’s first international refranchising move under its August turnaround plan, shifting its Japan operations to a franchise model under a new development and franchise agreement with Unison, and is intended to advance its refranchising strategy, strengthen financial flexibility, and reduce debt while preserving and potentially expanding the brand’s 89-store, 300-point presence in the Japanese market.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.