Krispy Kreme (DNUT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $438.96M
• Dividend Yield: 5.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.51M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 238.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: -6.55%
• EPS Growth: 53.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 170,800,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,741,238
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,512,163
• PEG Ratio: 4.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 61.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.67
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.80
• 1Y Price Target: $4.65
• Price Target Upside: 78.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▼(-3.85%Downside)

Krispy Kreme's stock score reflects mixed financial health with profitability challenges, negative valuation indicators, and bearish technical signals. While strategic initiatives and governance improvements offer some positives, significant financial pressures and uncertainty remain.

Positive Factors

Financial Strategy

Actions are being taken to reduce leverage and reduce capital intensity, notably most international markets could be considered for conversion to a franchise model.

Operational Shifts

Krispy Kreme will focus on its traditional retail channel distribution in the US, potentially strengthening its core business.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

The company reported 1Q25 results with net sales below estimates and adjusted EBITDA below both estimates.

Market Confidence

Management previously provided a message that everything was going as planned, but now confidence in their strategy and execution has diminished.

Partnership Termination

Krispy Kreme and McDonald's announced the termination of their multiyear partnership, pulling doughnuts from existing McDonald's doors.

Krispy Kreme Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates through an omni-channel business model to provide doughnut experiences and produce doughnuts. The company operates through three segments: U.S. and Canada, International, and Market Development. It also produces cookies, brownies, cookie cakes, ice cream, cookie-wiches, and cold milk, as well as doughnut mixes, other ingredients, and doughnut-making equipment. As of January 2, 2022, the company had 1,810 Krispy Kreme and Insomnia Cookies-branded shops in approximately 30 countries worldwide, which include 971 company owned and 839 franchised. It serves through doughnut shops, delivered fresh daily outlets, ecommerce, and delivery business. The company was formerly known as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. and changed its name to Krispy Kreme, Inc. in May 2021. Krispy Kreme, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

Krispy Kreme generates revenue through the sale of its doughnuts and complementary products like coffee and beverages. The company's revenue model is primarily based on retail sales from its company-owned stores, franchise operations, and e-commerce platforms. Krispy Kreme also earns income through wholesale operations by providing products to retail partners such as grocery stores and convenience chains. Significant partnerships with retailers and franchisees help expand its market reach, contributing to its earnings. Additionally, the company leverages its brand strength and promotional activities to drive sales and maintain customer loyalty.

Krispy Kreme Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Krispy Kreme displays mixed financial health. Revenue growth is positive, but profitability and high leverage pose risks. Efficient cash flow management is a key strength, but strategic improvements in profitability and leverage are crucial.

Income Statement

Krispy Kreme shows mixed results in its income statement. The TTM data reflects a negative net profit margin due to a net loss, which is concerning. However, historical data indicates steady revenue growth, albeit with fluctuating profitability. The EBIT margin has turned negative in the TTM, impacting overall profitability. Despite these challenges, the company has maintained positive EBITDA, suggesting operational resilience.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a moderate risk profile with a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting leverage concerns. Stockholders' equity remains stable, contributing to a reasonable equity ratio. ROE is negative due to net losses, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns on equity. The company's high leverage and negative ROE could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with negative free cash flow in the TTM, indicating cash outflows exceeding operational cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, suggesting efficient cash flow management relative to net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to the net loss, highlighting potential cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.60B	1.67B	1.69B	1.53B	1.38B	1.12B
Gross Profit	957.88M	1.26B	476.37M	1.12B	1.03B	811.13M
EBITDA	183.61M	212.71M	135.24M	141.09M	136.94M	78.15M
Net Income	-21.66M	3.10M	-37.92M	-8.78M	-14.84M	-60.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.09B	3.07B	3.24B	3.15B	3.15B	3.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.72M	28.96M	38.19M	35.37M	38.56M	38.51M
Total Debt	1.45B	1.35B	1.40B	1.24B	1.18B	1.59B
Total Liabilities	1.96B	1.91B	1.98B	1.85B	1.81B	2.21B
Stockholders Equity	1.10B	1.13B	1.17B	1.20B	1.23B	684.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-74.92M	-74.96M	-75.88M	28.10M	21.73M	-69.15M
Operating Cash Flow	42.70M	45.83M	45.54M	139.82M	141.22M	28.68M
Investing Cash Flow	22.51M	19.28M	-112.59M	-121.47M	-153.41M	-168.13M
Financing Cash Flow	-80.73M	-73.95M	71.86M	-16.84M	16.10M	139.44M

Krispy Kreme Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNUT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.81, below the 50-day MA of 3.36, and below the 200-day MA of 7.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DNUT.

Krispy Kreme Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	78 Outperform	$514.94M	10.09	11.87%	2.58%	3.94%	12.50%
WMK	68 Neutral	$1.98B	18.78	7.54%	1.81%	1.76%	6.01%
NGVC	67 Neutral	$1.01B	24.75	23.38%	1.13%	9.36%	43.17%
IMKTA	65 Neutral	$1.18B	19.47	4.00%	1.04%	-7.79%	-64.85%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.34B	11.01	-5.97%	3.14%	1.65%	-24.92%
GO	60 Neutral	$1.35B	81.47	1.43%	―	10.37%	-73.84%
DNUT	52 Neutral	$438.96M	238.55	-1.92%	5.38%	-6.55%	53.81%

Krispy Kreme Corporate Events

Krispy Kreme Ends Partnership with McDonald’s USA

Krispy Kreme and McDonald’s USA have jointly decided to end their partnership, effective July 2, 2025, due to the unsustainability of the business model for Krispy Kreme. Despite successful collaboration in approximately 2,400 McDonald’s restaurants, Krispy Kreme aims to focus on profitable U.S. expansion and international franchise growth. The partnership was a small part of McDonald’s breakfast business, which remains a core focus for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.

Krispy Kreme Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting

On June 17, 2025, Krispy Kreme, Inc. held its virtual annual meeting of stockholders, where several key decisions were made. The stockholders elected nine directors for a one-year term, approved an advisory resolution on executive compensation, and ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025. These decisions are likely to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.

Krispy Kreme Sells Stake in Insomnia Cookies

On June 10, 2025, Krispy Kreme announced the sale of its remaining stake in Insomnia Cookies Holdings, LLC, receiving $75 million in cash proceeds. This transaction marks a strategic move to de-leverage the company’s balance sheet and focus on profitable U.S. expansion and international franchise growth, as stated by CEO Josh Charlesworth.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.

Krispy Kreme Secures $125M Loan Amid Revenue Decline

On May 2 and May 7, 2025, Krispy Kreme, Inc. executed amendments to its existing credit agreement, securing $125 million in incremental term loan commitments to support general corporate purposes, including working capital and capital expenditures. The company reported a net revenue of $375.2 million for the first quarter of 2025, a decline of 15.3% compared to the previous year, primarily due to the divestiture of a majority stake in Insomnia Cookies. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, Krispy Kreme aims to focus on profitable U.S. expansion and international franchise growth, while addressing debt reduction and improving cash flow.