Krispy Kreme (DNUT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $621.71M
• Dividend Yield: 3.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.87M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 238.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.26
• Revenue Growth: -6.55%
• EPS Growth: 53.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): -0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 170,800,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 24,593,703
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,874,220
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.60
• 1Y Price Target: $4.23
• Price Target Upside: 15.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(9.59% Upside)

Krispy Kreme's stock score of 62 reflects mixed financial performance, with significant challenges in profitability and leverage. Technical analysis suggests short-term strength but long-term bearish trends. Valuation is impaired by net losses and dividend discontinuation. The company's strategic focus on growth and deleveraging is positive, as highlighted in the earnings call, but near-term financial challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Strategic Changes

Actions are being taken to reduce leverage and reduce capital intensity, notably most international markets could be considered for conversion to a franchise model.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

The company reported 1Q25 results with net sales below estimates and adjusted EBITDA below both estimates.

Guidance and Forecasting

Materially worse guidance for 2025 undercuts the idea that ample demand for the brand will drive extended US growth.

Market Confidence

Cutting the dividend is the proper move for a business with this current level of uncertainty, but this signal to the market is likely to keep investors sidelined.

Partnership Termination

Krispy Kreme and McDonald's announced the termination of their multiyear partnership, which was a promising initiative for McDonald's but a money losing one for Krispy Kreme.

Krispy Kreme Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT) is a renowned American doughnut company and coffeehouse chain, established in 1937. The company primarily operates in the restaurant and retail sectors, offering a wide variety of doughnuts, coffees, and other bakery items. Krispy Kreme is celebrated for its flagship Original Glazed doughnut and has built a global presence with stores, kiosks, and partnerships in numerous countries.

How the Company Makes Money

Krispy Kreme generates revenue through the sale of its doughnuts and complementary products like coffee and beverages. The company's revenue model is primarily based on retail sales from its company-owned stores, franchise operations, and e-commerce platforms. Krispy Kreme also earns income through wholesale operations by providing products to retail partners such as grocery stores and convenience chains. Significant partnerships with retailers and franchisees help expand its market reach, contributing to its earnings. Additionally, the company leverages its brand strength and promotional activities to drive sales and maintain customer loyalty.

Krispy Kreme Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Krispy Kreme shows mixed financial health with steady revenue growth but negative profitability and high leverage. The company's ability to manage cash flow efficiently amidst these challenges is crucial for financial stability.

Income Statement

Krispy Kreme shows mixed results in its income statement. The TTM data reflects a negative net profit margin due to a net loss, which is concerning. However, historical data indicates steady revenue growth, albeit with fluctuating profitability. The EBIT margin has turned negative in the TTM, impacting overall profitability. Despite these challenges, the company has maintained positive EBITDA, suggesting operational resilience.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a moderate risk profile with a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting leverage concerns. Stockholders' equity remains stable, contributing to a reasonable equity ratio. ROE is negative due to net losses, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns on equity. The company's high leverage and negative ROE could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with negative free cash flow in the TTM, indicating cash outflows exceeding operational cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, suggesting efficient cash flow management relative to net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to the net loss, highlighting potential cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.67B	1.69B	1.53B	1.38B	1.12B
Gross Profit	1.26B	476.37M	1.12B	1.03B	811.13M
EBITDA	212.71M	135.24M	141.09M	136.94M	78.15M
Net Income	3.10M	-37.92M	-8.78M	-14.84M	-60.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.07B	3.24B	3.15B	3.15B	3.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	28.96M	38.19M	35.37M	38.56M	38.51M
Total Debt	1.35B	1.40B	1.24B	1.18B	1.59B
Total Liabilities	1.91B	1.98B	1.85B	1.81B	2.21B
Stockholders Equity	1.13B	1.17B	1.20B	1.23B	684.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-74.96M	-75.88M	28.10M	21.73M	-69.15M
Operating Cash Flow	45.83M	45.54M	139.82M	141.22M	28.68M
Investing Cash Flow	19.28M	-112.59M	-121.47M	-153.41M	-168.13M
Financing Cash Flow	-73.95M	71.86M	-16.84M	16.10M	139.44M

Krispy Kreme Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNUT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.61, above the 50-day MA of 3.18, and below the 200-day MA of 6.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DNUT.

Krispy Kreme Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	70 Outperform	$447.20M	8.66	11.87%	2.95%	3.94%	12.50%
WMK	68 Neutral	$1.87B	17.39	7.54%	1.87%	1.76%	6.01%
NGVC	66 Neutral	$823.23M	20.16	23.38%	1.20%	9.36%	43.17%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.31B	12.53	-7.33%	3.14%	2.97%	-12.13%
IMKTA	63 Neutral	$1.11B	19.19	4.00%	1.04%	-7.79%	-64.85%
GO	63 Neutral	$1.28B	165.02	0.68%	―	8.47%	-85.17%
DNUT	62 Neutral	$621.71M	238.55	-1.92%	3.85%	-6.55%	53.81%

Krispy Kreme Corporate Events

Krispy Kreme Appoints New CFO Raphael Duvivier

Krispy Kreme Inc. announced the appointment of Raphael Duvivier as Chief Financial Officer, effective July 11, 2025, with a comprehensive compensation package including salary, bonuses, and long-term incentives. Additionally, the company approved retention grants for key executives and a new cash bonus opportunity for the second half of 2025, aiming to strengthen leadership stability and align performance incentives with company goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.

Krispy Kreme Announces Leadership Changes Amid Expansion Focus

On June 27, 2025, Krispy Kreme announced the resignations of CFO Jeremiah Ashukian and Chief Growth Officer David Skena, effective July 11, 2025, both leaving to pursue other opportunities without any disagreements with the company. Raphael Duvivier, who joined Krispy Kreme in 2019 and held various leadership roles, will succeed Ashukian as CFO. Additionally, Alison Holder will be promoted to Chief Brand and Product Officer, succeeding Skena. These leadership changes aim to support Krispy Kreme’s focus on sustainable, profitable growth and U.S. expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.

Krispy Kreme Ends Partnership with McDonald’s USA

Krispy Kreme and McDonald’s USA have jointly decided to end their partnership, effective July 2, 2025, due to the unsustainability of the business model for Krispy Kreme. Despite successful collaboration in approximately 2,400 McDonald’s restaurants, Krispy Kreme aims to focus on profitable U.S. expansion and international franchise growth. The partnership was a small part of McDonald’s breakfast business, which remains a core focus for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.

Krispy Kreme Holds Virtual Annual Stockholders Meeting

On June 17, 2025, Krispy Kreme, Inc. held its virtual annual meeting of stockholders, where several key decisions were made. The stockholders elected nine directors for a one-year term, approved an advisory resolution on executive compensation, and ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025. These decisions are likely to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.

Krispy Kreme Sells Stake in Insomnia Cookies

On June 10, 2025, Krispy Kreme announced the sale of its remaining stake in Insomnia Cookies Holdings, LLC, receiving $75 million in cash proceeds. This transaction marks a strategic move to de-leverage the company’s balance sheet and focus on profitable U.S. expansion and international franchise growth, as stated by CEO Josh Charlesworth.

The most recent analyst rating on (DNUT) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Krispy Kreme stock, see the DNUT Stock Forecast page.

Krispy Kreme Secures $125M Loan Amid Revenue Decline

On May 2 and May 7, 2025, Krispy Kreme, Inc. executed amendments to its existing credit agreement, securing $125 million in incremental term loan commitments to support general corporate purposes, including working capital and capital expenditures. The company reported a net revenue of $375.2 million for the first quarter of 2025, a decline of 15.3% compared to the previous year, primarily due to the divestiture of a majority stake in Insomnia Cookies. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, Krispy Kreme aims to focus on profitable U.S. expansion and international franchise growth, while addressing debt reduction and improving cash flow.