Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
NASDAQ:DNUT
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Krispy Kreme
(NASDAQ:DNUT)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▲(1.45% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/07/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile financial performance (sharp 2025 revenue/profitability deterioration, high leverage, and inconsistent free cash flow). Offsetting this, the latest earnings call outlined a credible near-term plan to improve cash generation and reduce leverage, while technicals and valuation are mixed with only modest support from the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Refranchising / Deleveraging
Completed refranchising deals and the Japan sale deliver cash proceeds and reduce company-operated exposure, lowering capital intensity. Shifting shops into JV/franchises and using proceeds to repay intercompany debt supports durable deleveraging and a more capital-light growth model.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Leverage above mid-single digits constrains flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk over multiple quarters. Even with planned reductions, sustained high net leverage limits ability to invest opportunistically and increases vulnerability to margin shocks or slower-than-expected refranchising proceeds.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Refranchising / Deleveraging
Completed refranchising deals and the Japan sale deliver cash proceeds and reduce company-operated exposure, lowering capital intensity. Shifting shops into JV/franchises and using proceeds to repay intercompany debt supports durable deleveraging and a more capital-light growth model.
Read all positive factors
Krispy Kreme (DNUT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$594.09M
Dividend Yield3.34%
Average Volume (3M)2.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth-10.40%
EPS Growth-1904.10%
CountryUS
Employees21,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding172,200,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,936,602
30 Day Avg. Volume2,703,114
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.47
P/FCF Ratio-11.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.50Price Target Upside30.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.49B
Krispy Kreme Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Krispy Kreme, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates through an omni-channel business model to provide doughnut experiences and produce doughnuts. The company operates through three segments: U.S. and Canada, International, and Market Deve...
How the Company Makes Money
Krispy Kreme makes money primarily by selling doughnuts and related items through three main channels: (1) company-owned operations, (2) franchise operations, and (3) sales tied to retail distribution.
1) Company-owned operations (direct-to-consu...
Krispy Kreme Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized measurable progress on the turnaround: materially stronger adjusted EBITDA, improved cash generation, lower capital spending, progress on refranchising with a Japan deal and international expansion plans, digital growth and door productivity improvements. These positives were tempered by near-term revenue declines driven by strategic door rationalizations and some softness in certain international markets, and the company still carries elevated leverage (though improving). Overall, the operational and financial momentum presented indicates the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
System-Wide Sales and 2026 Growth Outlook
Generated approximately $2.0 billion in system-wide sales in 2025 and provided guidance for system-wide sales growth of 2% to 4% in 2026.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Decline
Fourth quarter net revenue declined 2.9% to $392.4 million, with organic revenue down 3.9%, primarily driven by the strategic closure of underperforming fresh delivery doors in the U.S.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
System-Wide Sales and 2026 Growth Outlook
Generated approximately $2.0 billion in system-wide sales in 2025 and provided guidance for system-wide sales growth of 2% to 4% in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Krispy Kreme’s guidance for 2026 calls for system-wide sales growth of 2–4% in constant currency from a $1.96 billion 2025 base, opening at least 100 shops globally (the company ended 2025 with 2,125 shops), running 2026 CapEx of $50–60 million (roughly half of 2025’s level), generating positive free cash flow, and reducing net leverage to at or below 5.5x by year-end; management also plans to pursue 2–3 international refranchising deals in 2026 and expects approximately $65 million of cash proceeds from the Japan refranchising transaction.Krispy Kreme Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.52B | 1.67B | 1.69B | 1.53B | 1.38B |
| Gross Profit | 213.95M | 1.26B | 1.24B | 1.12B | 1.03B |
| EBITDA | -341.73M | 213.43M | 135.24M | 136.20M | 140.52M |
| Net Income | -515.77M | 3.10M | -37.92M | -15.62M | -24.51M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.59B | 3.07B | 3.24B | 3.15B | 3.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | -42.39M | 28.96M | 38.19M | 35.37M | 38.56M |
| Total Debt | 1.42B | 1.35B | 1.40B | 1.24B | 1.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.92B | 1.91B | 1.98B | 1.85B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 656.20M | 1.13B | 1.17B | 1.20B | 1.23B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -64.00M | -74.96M | -75.88M | 28.10M | 21.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 33.92M | 45.83M | 45.54M | 139.82M | 141.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.14M | 19.28M | -112.59M | -120.88M | -153.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.76M | -73.95M | 71.86M | -17.43M | 16.10M |
Krispy Kreme Technical Analysis
Positive
3.45
Price Trends
3.30
Positive
3.71
Negative
3.58
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
51.89
Neutral
53.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DNUT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.41, above the 50-day MA of 3.30, and below the 200-day MA of 3.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DNUT.
Krispy Kreme Risk Analysis
Krispy Kreme disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Krispy Kreme reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Krispy Kreme Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $574.40M | 7.26 | 11.37% | 2.63% | 3.88% | 7.71% | |
67 Neutral | $567.94M | 17.51 | 23.09% | ― | 8.34% | 40.20% | |
66 Neutral | $607.61M | 12.71 | 23.11% | 1.99% | 7.19% | 35.90% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $1.72B | 11.86 | 5.93% | 0.93% | -5.42% | -20.80% | |
54 Neutral | $594.09M | -1.38 | -66.05% | 3.34% | -10.40% | -1904.10% | |
46 Neutral | $696.89M | -4.43 | -19.78% | ― | 7.22% | -108.99% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
DNUT
Krispy Kreme
3.45
-0.93
-21.30%
IMKTA
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43.17
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26.38
-15.39
-36.85%
GO
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7.10
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DDL
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2.62
0.47
21.86%
Krispy Kreme Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Krispy Kreme strengthens leadership with new board, CFO terms
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Krispy Kreme’s board elected David Shear and former Kraft Heinz Global Chief People Officer Melissa Werneck as independent directors, effective April 2, 2026, with Werneck joining the Compensation, Nomination, and Governanc...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Krispy Kreme Advances Refranchising Strategy with WKS Deal
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Krispy Kreme completed a refranchising transaction with WKS Restaurant Group that lifted WKS’s stake in their Western U.S. joint venture to 80% while reducing Krispy Kreme’s interest to 20%. The deal brought the comp...
Executive/Board Changes
Krispy Kreme Announces Leadership Changes and Board Resignation
Neutral
Feb 4, 2026
Krispy Kreme disclosed that Chief People Officer Theresa Zandhuis plans to retire on or around March 31, 2026, with a separation package covering a year of salary, COBRA premiums, and pro-rata equity vesting while forfeiting a July 2025 retention ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.