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DraftKings (DKNG)
NASDAQ:DKNG
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DraftKings (DKNG) AI Stock Analysis

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DKNG

DraftKings

(NASDAQ:DKNG)

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Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(17.94% Upside)
DraftKings' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives, despite profitability challenges and high leverage. Technical indicators suggest current weakness, and valuation metrics indicate potential overvaluation. The earnings call provided a mixed outlook with both positive growth prospects and notable risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
DraftKings' strong revenue growth projection indicates robust market demand and effective business expansion strategies, supporting long-term growth.
Strategic Partnerships
Partnerships with major media companies enhance brand visibility and customer engagement, providing a competitive edge and supporting sustained growth.
Cash Flow Management
Improved cash flow management enhances operational efficiency and financial stability, supporting long-term strategic initiatives and growth.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term stability.
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability challenges with negative margins indicate operational inefficiencies, which could hinder long-term financial health and growth.
Guidance Revision
The downward revision in revenue guidance reflects potential challenges in achieving growth targets, impacting investor confidence and strategic planning.

DraftKings (DKNG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

DraftKings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDraftKings Inc. is a leading digital sports entertainment and gaming company based in the United States, operating in the online sports betting and daily fantasy sports sectors. Founded in 2012, DraftKings offers a platform that allows users to participate in fantasy sports contests and place bets on various sports events. Its core products include daily fantasy sports contests, sports betting, and a casino gaming platform, catering to millions of users across multiple states where online gambling is legal.
How the Company Makes MoneyDraftKings generates revenue primarily through several key streams: entry fees from daily fantasy sports contests, sports betting operations, and online casino gaming. Users pay to enter fantasy contests, and DraftKings retains a portion of the entry fees as revenue. In the sports betting segment, the company takes a percentage of wagers placed by users, known as the 'vig' or 'juice.' Additionally, DraftKings has partnerships with various sports leagues and teams, which help drive user engagement and brand recognition, while also providing opportunities for advertising and promotional deals. The company's ability to expand into new markets and form strategic alliances with media companies further contributes to its growth and earnings potential.

DraftKings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Average Revenue Per Unique Payer
Average Revenue Per Unique Payer
Measures the average amount of money each active user spends, indicating the monetization effectiveness and potential for revenue growth from the existing customer base.
Chart InsightsDraftKings' average revenue per unique payer has shown volatility, peaking in mid-2023 before declining. Despite recent dips, the earnings call reveals strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with a 20% year-over-year increase in Q1 2025. However, customer-friendly outcomes and market challenges have pressured revenue and EBITDA, leading to revised fiscal year guidance. The company's focus on live betting and maintaining a healthy balance sheet offers potential upside, but market-specific challenges could pose risks to sustained growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

DraftKings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth, strategic marketing agreements, and increased customer engagement. However, it also faced challenges with downward revisions in guidance and significant revenue impact from customer-friendly sports outcomes.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Positive EBITDA
DraftKings reported expected revenue growth of 24% to 28% for fiscal year 2025, with expected revenue of $5.9 billion to $6.1 billion and positive adjusted EBITDA of $450 million to $550 million.
Exclusive Marketing Agreements
DraftKings secured exclusive marketing agreements with ESPN and NBCUniversal, enhancing brand visibility and customer engagement.
Customer Retention and Engagement
Customer retention rates improved significantly, with NFL week 1 customer retention up over 300 basis points. NFL and NBA handle grew by 13% and 19%, respectively.
Parlay Handle Mix Surge
Parlay handle mix increased by 800 basis points for NFL and 1,000 basis points for NBA season to date.
iGaming Revenue Growth
iGaming net revenue growth accelerated to 25% year-over-year, the fastest since Q1 2024.
Share Repurchase Program Expansion
DraftKings increased its share repurchase program from $1 billion to $2 billion.
Negative Updates
Revision of Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance
DraftKings revised its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance downward from $6.2 billion to $6.4 billion to $5.9 billion to $6.1 billion.
Impact of Customer-Friendly Sports Outcomes
Customer-friendly sports outcomes negatively impacted revenue by more than $300 million in September and October, affecting quarterly performance.
Negative Adjusted EBITDA in Q3
DraftKings reported negative $127 million of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, primarily due to unfavorable sports outcomes.
Concerns Over Prediction Markets
There are concerns about the profitability and competitive dynamics in the prediction markets, with DraftKings planning to focus on states without Sportsbook.
Company Guidance
During the DraftKings Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company revised its fiscal year 2025 guidance, projecting revenue of $5.9 billion to $6.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $450 million to $550 million, a reduction from the previous guidance due to customer-friendly sports outcomes impacting revenue by over $300 million in the past two months. Despite this, DraftKings remains optimistic about its growth, highlighting a 17% year-over-year increase in total sportsbook handle in October and significant gains in parlay handle mix for NFL and NBA. The company also announced upcoming initiatives like the launch of DraftKings predictions and Spanish language functionality, alongside exclusive marketing agreements with ESPN and NBCUniversal. Additionally, DraftKings plans to expand its share repurchase program from $1 billion to $2 billion.

DraftKings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
DraftKings exhibits strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability due to negative margins. The balance sheet shows high leverage, posing financial risks, although improvements in cash flow management suggest better future operational efficiency.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
DraftKings shows a positive revenue growth trend with an 8.16% increase in TTM, indicating strong market demand. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net and EBIT margins, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.32, suggesting significant leverage and potential financial risk. The negative return on equity indicates that the company is not generating profit from its equity base, which is a concern for investors.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows improvement with a 41.96% growth in free cash flow, indicating better cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio above 1 suggests efficient cash generation relative to net income, despite negative operating cash flow coverage.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.46B4.77B3.67B2.24B1.30B614.53M
Gross Profit2.14B1.82B1.37B756.19M501.86M267.94M
EBITDA-67.92M-319.35M-586.65M-1.27B-1.40B-729.44M
Net Income-267.57M-507.29M-802.14M-1.38B-1.53B-843.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.62B4.28B3.94B4.04B4.07B3.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.23B788.29M1.27B1.31B2.15B1.82B
Total Debt1.33B1.34B1.35B1.32B1.32B81.61M
Total Liabilities3.89B3.27B3.10B2.72B2.39B807.98M
Stockholders Equity732.29M1.01B840.31M1.32B1.68B2.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow654.15M407.59M-115.14M-729.16M-517.78M-385.57M
Operating Cash Flow667.57M417.77M-1.75M-625.52M-419.51M-337.88M
Investing Cash Flow-194.53M-566.60M-90.36M-208.77M-195.02M-227.34M
Financing Cash Flow78.63M-144.47M-63.22M-16.73M1.14B2.31B

DraftKings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price27.98
Price Trends
50DMA
37.88
Negative
100DMA
40.91
Negative
200DMA
39.48
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.41
Positive
RSI
38.21
Neutral
STOCH
22.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DKNG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.17, below the 50-day MA of 37.88, and below the 200-day MA of 39.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DKNG.

DraftKings Risk Analysis

DraftKings disclosed 10 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. DraftKings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Stock repurchases under our stock repurchase program are discretionary, and we cannot guarantee that our stock repurchase program will achieve the desired objectives. Share repurchases diminish our cash reserves and could also increase the volatility of the trading price of our Class A common stock. Q4, 2024

DraftKings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$6.12B28.0432.35%2.34%29.54%4389.69%
71
Outperform
$6.27B3.5187.17%0.89%5.91%336.91%
67
Neutral
$3.81B66.0729.67%23.15%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
61
Neutral
£39.10B109.363.76%
50
Neutral
$24.83B-29.59%18.51%37.24%
45
Neutral
$2.14B8.24%-77.54%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DKNG
DraftKings
30.40
-9.73
-24.25%
BYD
Boyd Gaming
81.27
8.30
11.37%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
14.54
-5.95
-29.04%
FLUT
Flutter Entertainment PLC
223.03
-25.01
-10.08%
RSI
Rush Street Interactive
17.24
6.34
58.17%
SGHC
Super Group (SGHC)
11.52
6.35
122.82%

DraftKings Corporate Events

DraftKings Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Nov 8, 2025

DraftKings Inc. is a digital sports entertainment and gaming company that offers daily fantasy sports, regulated gaming, and digital media services, operating primarily in the U.S. and Canada.

DraftKings’ Earnings Call: Record Growth Amid Challenges
Aug 13, 2025

DraftKings Inc. reported a robust earnings call, showcasing a blend of strong financial performance and strategic challenges. The company celebrated record-breaking revenue and EBITDA growth, yet acknowledged hurdles such as increased tax burdens in key markets and uncertainties in prediction markets. Positive momentum was noted in strategic initiatives like live betting and iGaming, although external factors such as tax increases could pose potential headwinds.

DraftKings Reports Record Revenue and Growth in Q2
Aug 8, 2025

DraftKings Inc. is a digital sports entertainment and gaming company, known for its daily fantasy sports, regulated gaming, and digital media offerings, operating primarily in the sports betting industry. In its latest earnings report, DraftKings announced record-breaking revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter, with a notable year-over-year revenue growth of 37%. The company is optimistic about maintaining its fiscal year 2025 guidance, anticipating revenue towards the higher end of its range, driven by strong business momentum and favorable sportsbook outcomes. Key highlights from the report include a significant increase in Adjusted EBITDA, which doubled the previous record, and a 45% year-over-year increase in sportsbook net revenue. DraftKings also highlighted its strategic focus on enhancing its sportsbook product for the upcoming NFL and NBA seasons and its exploration of federally-regulated Prediction Markets to enhance shareholder value. Looking ahead, DraftKings remains committed to expanding its profitability and maintaining its growth trajectory, with plans to launch mobile sports betting in Missouri and navigate higher tax rates in several states.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 08, 2025