Super Group (SGHC) (SGHC)
NYSE:SGHC
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Super Group (SGHC)
(NYSE:SGHC)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(28.43% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (low leverage and improving cash generation) and a very positive latest earnings update (record growth, margin expansion, reaffirmed guidance with a major event catalyst). Technicals add support via clear uptrend signals, while valuation is reasonable with a solid dividend. Key risks remain revenue/margin volatility and regulatory/tax headwinds (notably the U.K.).
Positive Factors
Cash generation & FCF conversion
Material and improving operating cash flow and strong free cash flow conversion across 2024–2025 provide durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks and reinvestment. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing, supports capital allocation flexibility and underpins earnings quality over months.
Negative Factors
U.K. tax headwind (~$30M EBITDA)
A newly effective U.K. tax imposing a multi‑million dollar EBITDA hit in a key market is a structural margin pressure that will persist until fully mitigated or passed to customers. It reduces cash available for reinvestment and returns, increases compliance complexity and makes medium‑term margin targets harder to sustain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & FCF conversion
Material and improving operating cash flow and strong free cash flow conversion across 2024–2025 provide durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks and reinvestment. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing, supports capital allocation flexibility and underpins earnings quality over months.
Read all positive factors
Super Group (SGHC) Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Super Group (SGHC) (SGHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.77B
Dividend Yield1.34%
Average Volume (3M)3.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.5
Beta (1Y)1.37
Revenue Growth19.93%
EPS Growth79.81%
CountryUS
Employees3,589
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding508,076,780
10 Day Avg. Volume1,842,157
30 Day Avg. Volume3,015,421
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.32
Price to Book (P/B)7.52
Price to Sales (P/S)2.71
P/FCF Ratio18.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.47
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.20Price Target Upside52.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.58B
Super Group (SGHC) Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Super Group (SGHC) Limited functions as a digital operator in the realms of sports wagering and casino gaming. Its core services encompass Betway, a prominent online sports betting brand, and Spin, an extensive online casino platform featuring mul...
How the Company Makes Money
Super Group primarily makes money by offering online betting and casino games and retaining a portion of customer wagering volume as gross gaming revenue (GGR). In sports betting, revenue is generated from the margin (the difference between stakes...
Super Group (SGHC) Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial quarter: record revenue and EBITDA, robust MAU growth, significant outperformance in Africa, improving international momentum, a strengthened balance sheet, and clear product/tech initiatives (Apricot integration, AI, Super Coin) combined with an expected World Cup uplift. Key headwinds include a near-term U.K. tax EBITDA impact (~$30M), inherent sportsbook volatility and lower trailing sports margins, early-stage adoption risks for Super Coin, and regulatory complexities in select markets. Overall, the positive results, balance-sheet strength and event catalysts materially outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Record Q1 Revenue and EBITDA
Total revenue of $612 million, up 18% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $152 million, up 36% year-over-year; margin expanded to 25% from 22% a year ago.
Negative Updates
UK New Tax Headwind
Management quantified an estimated pre-mitigation EBITDA impact of ~6% (around $30 million) from the new U.K. tax that took effect April 1; mitigation actions are underway but near-term hit remains a risk.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q1 Revenue and EBITDA
Total revenue of $612 million, up 18% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $152 million, up 36% year-over-year; margin expanded to 25% from 22% a year ago.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Super Group reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance of total revenue of at least $2.55 billion and adjusted EBITDA of more than $680 million, supported by a strong Q1 that delivered $612 million revenue (+18% YoY), $152 million adjusted EBITDA (+36%) and a 25% margin (vs 22% prior), record average monthly active customers of 6.4 million (+18% YoY; March 6.5m), segment strength (Africa revenue +53% YoY with adj. EBITDA $98m, +21%; International revenue +9% with adj. EBITDA $73m, +26%), healthy liquidity and returns (ending cash $422m, +20% YoY despite $152m returned to shareholders including a special dividend; free cash flow conversion 75%; minimum quarterly dividend target raised to $0.05/share), resilient business mix (≈80% of revenue annuity; trailing 24‑month sportsbook net win ~13.1%; historical peaks ~18–19%), significant World Cup exposure (≈40% of countries participating representing ~88% of 2025 revenue; football ≈73% of GGR) and positive Q2 early trends.Super Group (SGHC) Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.43B | 2.23B | 1.70B | 1.44B | 1.39B | 1.50B |
| Gross Profit | 694.55M | 606.41M | 841.42M | 666.28M | 703.14M | 876.85M |
| EBITDA | 485.32M | 366.89M | 241.49M | 101.69M | 305.19M | 357.60M |
| Net Income | 245.07M | 216.93M | 113.10M | -10.55M | 194.57M | 267.07M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.23B | 1.27B | 1.10B | 1.06B | 940.49M | 955.68M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 422.00M | 518.84M | 401.73M | 267.42M | 273.22M | 332.64M |
| Total Debt | 104.00M | 81.00M | 73.25M | 32.31M | 19.80M | 22.67M |
| Total Liabilities | 503.00M | 465.86M | 517.21M | 466.56M | 367.14M | 373.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 729.00M | 802.75M | 580.15M | 575.16M | 555.58M | 582.02M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -33.31M | 325.90M | 199.62M | 79.30M | 139.30M | 183.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -79.73M | 366.89M | 295.09M | 132.85M | 166.84M | 209.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 14.61M | -137.96M | -110.08M | -5.01M | -96.52M | -18.16M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -103.52M | -151.95M | -56.35M | -131.16M | -103.18M | -39.76M |
Super Group (SGHC) Technical Analysis
Positive
11.29
Price Trends
12.74
Positive
11.45
Positive
11.47
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Positive
53.15
Neutral
50.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SGHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.19, below the 50-day MA of 12.74, and below the 200-day MA of 11.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SGHC.
Super Group (SGHC) Risk Analysis
Super Group (SGHC) disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Super Group (SGHC) reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Super Group (SGHC) Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $6.77B | 27.52 | 31.93% | 1.34% | 19.93% | 79.81% | |
70 Outperform | $463.79M | 209.79 | 8.62% | ― | 6.33% | -150.96% | |
68 Neutral | $6.78B | 80.21 | 26.36% | ― | 28.20% | 310.24% | |
65 Neutral | $23.46B | 219.26 | 7.88% | ― | 25.80% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $2.85B | ― | -44.48% | ― | 6.38% | -1099.20% | |
46 Neutral | $82.83M | -1.83 | -37.13% | ― | 19.23% | -232.12% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SGHC
Super Group (SGHC)
13.32
4.04
43.53%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
21.30
4.25
24.93%
DKNG
DraftKings
26.39
-14.12
-34.86%
RSI
Rush Street Interactive
29.09
15.25
110.19%
CDRO
Codere Online
10.20
2.51
32.64%
GAMB
Gambling.com
2.36
-9.28
-79.73%
Super Group (SGHC) Corporate Events
Super Group (SGHC) Sets June 25, 2026 AGM and Seeks New Share Buyback Authority
May 14, 2026
Super Group (SGHC) Limited, a Guernsey-based foreign private issuer active in global online betting and gaming, is governed by Guernsey company law and U.S. securities rules applicable to non‑U.S. issuers. Its shares trade on the New York St...
Super Group Reshapes Financial Reporting Around Africa and International Segments
May 13, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, Super Group (SGHC) restructured its internal management and reporting framework, shifting from product-based segments Betway and Spin to two geographic segments, Africa and International, effective for the year ending...
Super Group posts record Q1 2026 results and pivots to regional reporting
May 11, 2026
Super Group reported record first-quarter 2026 results on May 11, 2026, posting revenue of $612 million, up 18% year over year, and profit of $86 million, compared with $59 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 36% to $152 million, lifti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.