Brightstar Lottery (BRSL)
NYSE:BRSL
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Brightstar Lottery
(NYSE:BRSL)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(14.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is held back primarily by high leverage and sharply weaker trailing cash flow, alongside a bearish technical trend. Offsetting factors include a relatively low P/E and very high dividend yield, plus guidance pointing to improving fundamentals after near-term license-payment and investment-cycle pressures.
Positive Factors
Strong operating profitability & margins
Sustained high gross and EBIT margins (~46–48% and ~23% TTM) indicate durable unit economics and pricing power in lottery services. These margins provide structural capacity to fund digital investment, pay dividends and withstand cyclical revenue swings once large one-off outflows ease.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage relative to equity
An aggressive capital structure (debt/equity ~4.9x) amplifies earnings volatility and interest burden, leaving the business more exposed to cyclical demand or jackpot-driven revenue swings. High leverage constrains strategic choices and raises the cost of distress or opportunistic funding needs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating profitability & margins
Sustained high gross and EBIT margins (~46–48% and ~23% TTM) indicate durable unit economics and pricing power in lottery services. These margins provide structural capacity to fund digital investment, pay dividends and withstand cyclical revenue swings once large one-off outflows ease.
Read all positive factors
Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.32B
Dividend Yield24.38%
Average Volume (3M)1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth-34.93%
EPS Growth83.72%
CountryUS
Employees11,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding189,426,970
10 Day Avg. Volume998,684
30 Day Avg. Volume1,164,177
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)3.49
Price to Sales (P/S)1.21
P/FCF Ratio-7.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.00Price Target Upside38.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.50B
Brightstar Lottery Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
A pure‑play global lottery operator - providing technology and services for regulated lotteries. Previously included gaming and iGaming operations, which were divested....
How the Company Makes Money
Brightstar Lottery generates revenue primarily through ticket sales from its lottery games, including both physical tickets and online purchases. The company earns a percentage of the total sales as profit, which is further boosted by high player ...
Brightstar Lottery Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced: the call conveyed solid underlying operating performance (Q4 revenue up 3%, Q4 adjusted EBITDA up 5%), meaningful deleveraging, strong shareholder returns (>$1B in 2025), and strategic wins (nine-year Italy Lotto license, São Paulo greenfield, iLottery momentum). However, near-term financials are materially impacted by the sizable Italy upfront license payments and associated amortization, a peak capex cycle, the UK contract transition, and a modest full-year EBITDA decline versus prior year. Adjusted cash generation looks healthy after excluding one-time license outflows, but reported cash and leverage will be stressed through the license payment in 2026 before improving. Overall, positives around growth initiatives and balance sheet repair are roughly balanced by near-term cash/earnings pressure from the license and investment cycle.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $668,000,000, up 3% year-over-year (from $651,000,000), driven by elevated U.S. multistate jackpot activity and strong iLottery performance.
Negative Updates
Impact of UK Technology Contract Transition
UK technology contract transition created headwinds (cited ~$18,000,000 impact), weighing on revenue and profit flow-through in the year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of $668,000,000, up 3% year-over-year (from $651,000,000), driven by elevated U.S. multistate jackpot activity and strong iLottery performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenue of $2.50–2.55B (including ~ $175M of Italy Lotto contra‑revenue amortization) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.16–1.19B, assuming €/$ = 1.15; reported cash from operations of -$900M (or +$750M excluding the final €1.43B/~$1.68B Lotto license installment, of which Brightstar’s 61.5% share is ≈ €880M/~$1.0B); CapEx of $450–475M (≈75% contractual); and OPTIMA cost savings tracking to ~ $50M by 2026. Net debt was $2.7B (2.4x leverage) at 2025‑end, is expected to peak ~3.5x after the final payment then move toward a mid‑cycle ≤3x, with liquidity > $3B. Shareholder returns continue (quarterly dividend raised to $0.23; ≈ $200M remaining on the $500M buyback authorization). 2028 targets: ~ $2.75B revenue and ~ $1.3B adj. EBITDA, with an expected ~ $800M annual cash from operations in 2027–28 and > $400M annual free cash flow thereafter (mid‑teens FCF yield at current price).Brightstar Lottery Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.51B | 2.51B | 2.53B | 2.60B | 4.09B |
| Gross Profit | 1.04B | 1.17B | 1.21B | 1.20B | 1.96B |
| EBITDA | 1.10B | 1.14B | 1.12B | 1.42B | 1.41B |
| Net Income | 147.00M | 348.00M | 156.00M | 275.00M | 482.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.16B | 10.28B | 10.46B | 10.43B | 11.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.45B | 584.00M | 508.00M | 590.00M | 591.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.25B | 5.47B | 5.78B | 6.03B | 6.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.57B | 8.22B | 8.51B | 8.45B | 9.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 875.00M | 1.65B | 1.44B | 1.43B | 1.28B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -415.00M | 881.00M | 893.00M | 737.00M | 740.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -99.00M | 1.03B | 1.04B | 899.00M | 978.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.82B | -357.00M | -467.00M | 168.00M | 636.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.03B | -586.00M | -564.00M | -1.06B | -1.90B |
Brightstar Lottery Technical Analysis
Negative
12.25
Price Trends
13.16
Negative
14.09
Negative
14.75
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.23
Positive
37.14
Neutral
22.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.69, below the 50-day MA of 13.16, and below the 200-day MA of 14.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRSL.
Brightstar Lottery Risk Analysis
Brightstar Lottery disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brightstar Lottery reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brightstar Lottery Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.76B | 17.27 | 18.68% | 1.22% | 4.61% | 22.90% | |
73 Outperform | $4.90B | 55.90 | 27.50% | ― | 23.15% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $2.32B | 12.09 | 11.95% | 24.38% | -34.93% | 83.72% | |
50 Neutral | $2.04B | -2.53 | -34.58% | ― | 8.24% | -77.54% | |
47 Neutral | $1.29B | -1.21 | -49.45% | ― | ― | ― | |
47 Neutral | $524.18M | -1.43 | -116.69% | ― | 0.36% | 47.55% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery
12.25
-0.05
-0.39%
SBET
SharpLink Gaming
6.52
3.59
122.22%
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort
98.33
25.26
34.57%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
15.25
0.96
6.72%
RSI
Rush Street Interactive
21.09
9.23
77.82%
BALY
Bally's Corporation
10.80
-4.33
-28.62%
Brightstar Lottery Corporate Events
Brightstar Lottery Files 2025 Form 20-F with SEC, Publishes Audited Results
Feb 24, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC, a leading global lottery technology and services provider, has filed its 2025 Annual Report on Form 20‑F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, dated February 24, 2026, covering audited financial statements...
Brightstar Lottery Posts Strong Q4 2025, Hikes Dividend and Adds Independent Director
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Brightstar Lottery reported its fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results, with Q4 revenue up 3% to $668 million and adjusted EBITDA rising 5%, driven by a 3.5% same‑store sales increase led by U.S. multi...
Brightstar Lottery Buys Back 1.55 Million Shares Under Ongoing $500 Million Program
Feb 12, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC disclosed that it repurchased 1,552,352 ordinary shares between January 16 and February 6, 2026, under its previously announced $500 million buyback program. The company paid an aggregate $22.24 million for the stock, at pri...
Brightstar Lottery Buys Back $22.6 Million of Shares and Shifts London Headquarters
Jan 15, 2026
In a series of transactions completed between December 19, 2025 and January 9, 2026, Brightstar Lottery PLC repurchased a total of 1,442,700 ordinary shares under its previously announced $500 million buyback programme, paying an aggregate $22.6 m...
Brightstar Lottery Completes $500 Million Share Repurchase Program
Dec 15, 2025
Brightstar Lottery PLC announced the completion of its $500 million share repurchase program, including the final delivery of shares under its $250 million accelerated share repurchase plan. On December 3 and December 12, 2025, the company repurch...
Brightstar Lottery PLC Prices $750M Notes and Plans Redemption
Dec 3, 2025
On December 3, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced the successful pricing of $750 million in 5.750% Senior Secured Notes due 2033. The proceeds will be used to redeem the company’s existing $750 million 6.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2027...
Brightstar Lottery PLC Launches Senior Secured Notes Offering
Dec 2, 2025
On December 2, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced a benchmark offering of senior secured notes due 2033, co-issued with its subsidiary, Brightstar Global Solutions Corporation. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem $500 millio...
Brightstar Lottery Secures Nine-Year Italy Lotto Concession
Nov 28, 2025
On November 18, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced that its subsidiary, LottoItalia S.r.l., signed a nine-year agreement to operate the Italy Lotto. This agreement, effective from November 30, 2025, positions Brightstar Lottery as a key player...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.