Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.60B
• Dividend Yield: 24.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: -34.93%
• EPS Growth: 83.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 189,426,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,573,137
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,536,893
• PEG Ratio: 0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.05
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.44
• 1Y Price Target: $19.00
• Price Target Upside: 33.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.96
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.51B

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▼(-1.96% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is held back primarily by high leverage and sharply weaker trailing cash flow, alongside a bearish technical trend. Offsetting factors include a relatively low P/E and very high dividend yield, plus guidance pointing to improving fundamentals after near-term license-payment and investment-cycle pressures.

Positive Factors

Strong operating profitability & margins

Sustained high gross and EBIT margins (~46–48% and ~23% TTM) indicate durable unit economics and pricing power in lottery services. These margins provide structural capacity to fund digital investment, pay dividends and withstand cyclical revenue swings once large one-off outflows ease.

Nine-year Italy Lotto concession expands scale

A long-term Italy concession materially enlarges Brightstar's market footprint and gives strategic control of a large retail network. This creates persistent revenue and cross-sell opportunities for iLottery/iCasino and sports betting, supporting sustainable growth and higher lifetime customer value over the contract period.

Meaningful deleveraging and strong liquidity

Substantial debt reduction and >$3B liquidity materially improve financial flexibility versus prior year. Lower net leverage creates room for targeted investment, opportunistic M&A or continued shareholder returns, and reduces refinancing risk through the multi-year investment cycle.

Negative Factors

Very high leverage relative to equity

An aggressive capital structure (debt/equity ~4.9x) amplifies earnings volatility and interest burden, leaving the business more exposed to cyclical demand or jackpot-driven revenue swings. High leverage constrains strategic choices and raises the cost of distress or opportunistic funding needs.

Reported cash generation turned negative (TTM)

A sharp reversal to negative operating and free cash flow materially weakens internal funding capacity. Persistent negative cash generation would force reliance on borrowings or asset sales to fund capex, dividends and license payments, increasing funding risk through the investment cycle.

Large upfront Italy license payment and amortization

The sizable one-time Italy license cash outflow and ongoing contra-revenue amortization will push reported leverage and depress reported cash and revenue metrics through 2026. This structural accounting and funding impact limits near-term flexibility and clouds short-run free cash flow despite longer-term revenue upside.

Brightstar Lottery Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

A pure‑play global lottery operator - providing technology and services for regulated lotteries. Previously included gaming and iGaming operations, which were divested.

How the Company Makes Money

Brightstar Lottery generates revenue primarily through ticket sales from its lottery games, including both physical tickets and online purchases. The company earns a percentage of the total sales as profit, which is further boosted by high player participation in its various gaming offerings. Additionally, BRSL partners with state and national lottery organizations to manage and operate lottery programs, receiving a commission for these services. The company also explores revenue opportunities through advertising partnerships and promotional campaigns, utilizing its extensive player base to attract sponsors. By continuously innovating its product offerings and expanding its market reach, Brightstar Lottery leverages multiple revenue streams to enhance its financial performance.

Brightstar Lottery Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating profitability is solid (TTM EBIT margin ~23%) and TTM revenue rebounded sharply, but the balance sheet is highly leveraged (debt-to-equity ~4.9x) and TTM cash generation deteriorated significantly (operating cash flow ~-$130M; free cash flow ~-$456M), increasing funding and financial-risk concerns.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid overall with healthy gross margins (~46–48% in recent years) and strong operating profitability (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) EBIT margin ~23%). Revenue has rebounded sharply in TTM (about +64%), but the top line was largely flat to down from 2021–2024. A key weakness is earnings volatility: net income fell meaningfully in TTM ($147M) versus 2024 ($348M), and the company has a history of large losses (2020), suggesting sensitivity to non-operating items, costs, or one-time swings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the main constraint. Debt remains very high relative to equity, with debt-to-equity worsening in TTM to ~4.9x (from ~3.3x in 2024) as equity declined ($875M vs. $1.65B). Returns on equity are strong (~21% in TTM), but that performance is amplified by leverage and comes with higher financial risk. While total debt has come down versus 2020, the capital structure is still aggressive for a cyclical/discretionary industry.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow turned negative (~-$130M) and free cash flow was deeply negative (~-$456M) after strong positive cash flow in 2021–2024 (operating cash flow roughly $0.9–$1.04B and free cash flow ~$0.74–$0.89B). This reversal creates funding pressure given the already high leverage and raises questions about working-capital swings, investment intensity, or timing effects driving the downturn.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.51B	2.51B	2.53B	2.60B	4.09B
Gross Profit	1.05B	1.17B	1.21B	1.20B	1.96B
EBITDA	882.00M	1.14B	1.12B	1.42B	1.41B
Net Income	70.00M	348.00M	156.00M	275.00M	482.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.16B	10.28B	10.46B	10.43B	11.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.45B	584.00M	508.00M	590.00M	591.00M
Total Debt	4.25B	5.47B	5.78B	6.03B	6.87B
Total Liabilities	7.57B	8.22B	8.51B	8.45B	9.35B
Stockholders Equity	875.00M	1.65B	1.44B	1.43B	1.28B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-415.00M	881.00M	893.00M	737.00M	740.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-99.00M	1.03B	1.04B	899.00M	978.00M
Investing Cash Flow	3.82B	-357.00M	-467.00M	168.00M	636.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.03B	-586.00M	-564.00M	-1.06B	-1.90B

Brightstar Lottery Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.28
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.92, below the 50-day MA of 14.66, and below the 200-day MA of 14.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRSL.

Brightstar Lottery Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MCRI	78 Outperform	$1.75B	17.61	19.40%	1.22%	4.61%	22.90%
RSI	73 Outperform	$4.38B	67.54	29.49%	―	23.15%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
BRSL	55 Neutral	$2.60B	11.70	-0.16%	24.38%	-34.93%	83.72%
SBET	48 Neutral	$1.29B	-0.92	-0.07%	―	―	―
PENN	47 Neutral	$1.69B	-1.98	-35.97%	―	8.24%	-77.54%
BALY	43 Neutral	$651.40M	-1.71	-114.88%	―	0.36%	47.55%

Brightstar Lottery Corporate Events

Brightstar Lottery Files 2025 Form 20-F with SEC, Publishes Audited Results

Brightstar Lottery PLC, a leading global lottery technology and services provider, has filed its 2025 Annual Report on Form 20‑F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, dated February 24, 2026, covering audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025. The filing, made in line with New York Stock Exchange requirements, underscores the company’s ongoing regulatory compliance, offering investors and other stakeholders expanded transparency via online access and free hard copies of the report upon request.

The move reinforces Brightstar’s positioning as a major NYSE‑listed participant in the global lottery infrastructure market, where disclosure quality and governance standards are key considerations for institutional investors. By promptly publishing its audited results and facilitating broad distribution of the annual report, the company provides markets with up‑to‑date financial information that may inform investor perception of its operational performance and risk profile for the 2025 fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSL) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brightstar Lottery stock, see the BRSL Stock Forecast page.

Brightstar Lottery Posts Strong Q4 2025, Hikes Dividend and Adds Independent Director

On February 24, 2026, Brightstar Lottery reported its fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results, with Q4 revenue up 3% to $668 million and adjusted EBITDA rising 5%, driven by a 3.5% same‑store sales increase led by U.S. multi‑state jackpots and iLottery. For 2025, it cut net debt by 43% to $2.7 billion, boosted cash to $1.45 billion, returned over $1 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, and the board raised the regular quarterly dividend to $0.23 per share while outlining plans for accelerated organic growth in 2026.

The company highlighted 2025 as a transformational year marked by the sale of IGT Gaming, heavy investment in Italy’s Lotto license and preparations for high‑ROI projects such as Italy B2C digital expansion and a new São Paulo lottery expected to support growth through 2028. Governance moves included appointing veteran diplomat Mariangela Zappia as an independent non‑executive director on February 19, 2026, and CFO Max Chiara’s decision not to stand for board re‑election at the next AGM as Brightstar seeks a more independent board while retaining him in the finance role, signaling tighter alignment with prevailing corporate governance standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSL) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brightstar Lottery stock, see the BRSL Stock Forecast page.

Brightstar Lottery Buys Back 1.55 Million Shares Under Ongoing $500 Million Program

Brightstar Lottery PLC disclosed that it repurchased 1,552,352 ordinary shares between January 16 and February 6, 2026, under its previously announced $500 million buyback program. The company paid an aggregate $22.24 million for the stock, at prices ranging from $13.81 to $15.43 per share, and is holding the shares in treasury, effectively reducing the free float and signaling continued capital-return discipline to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSL) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brightstar Lottery stock, see the BRSL Stock Forecast page.

Brightstar Lottery Buys Back $22.6 Million of Shares and Shifts London Headquarters

In a series of transactions completed between December 19, 2025 and January 9, 2026, Brightstar Lottery PLC repurchased a total of 1,442,700 ordinary shares under its previously announced $500 million buyback programme, paying an aggregate $22.6 million at prices ranging from $14.98 to $16.15 per share; the shares are being held in treasury, signalling continued capital management efforts that may support earnings per share and shareholder value. Separately, the company said its principal executive office was relocated within the City of London from 10 Finsbury Square to new premises at 2 and 3 Eldon Street, effective January 12, 2026, a move that reflects an administrative shift but does not alter its regulatory reporting status as a foreign private issuer in the United States.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSL) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brightstar Lottery stock, see the BRSL Stock Forecast page.

Brightstar Lottery Completes $500 Million Share Repurchase Program

Brightstar Lottery PLC announced the completion of its $500 million share repurchase program, including the final delivery of shares under its $250 million accelerated share repurchase plan. On December 3 and December 12, 2025, the company repurchased a total of 15,234,554 ordinary shares, which are held in treasury, reflecting a strategic move to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSL) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brightstar Lottery stock, see the BRSL Stock Forecast page.

Brightstar Lottery PLC Prices $750M Notes and Plans Redemption

On December 3, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced the successful pricing of $750 million in 5.750% Senior Secured Notes due 2033. The proceeds will be used to redeem the company’s existing $750 million 6.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2027. This strategic financial move is expected to optimize the company’s debt structure and potentially enhance its market position by reducing interest costs. The settlement of the new notes is anticipated to occur on December 15, 2025, subject to customary conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSL) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brightstar Lottery stock, see the BRSL Stock Forecast page.

Brightstar Lottery PLC Launches Senior Secured Notes Offering

On December 2, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced a benchmark offering of senior secured notes due 2033, co-issued with its subsidiary, Brightstar Global Solutions Corporation. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem $500 million of the company’s outstanding senior secured notes due 2027 and to cover related debt issuance costs. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance the company’s debt structure and improve its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSL) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brightstar Lottery stock, see the BRSL Stock Forecast page.

Brightstar Lottery Secures Nine-Year Italy Lotto Concession

On November 18, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced that its subsidiary, LottoItalia S.r.l., signed a nine-year agreement to operate the Italy Lotto. This agreement, effective from November 30, 2025, positions Brightstar Lottery as a key player in the Italian lottery market, potentially increasing its market share and revenue streams. The concession includes managing the Lotto game and other fixed-odds number games, with provisions for potential amendments due to regulatory changes. This strategic move is expected to enhance the company’s operational footprint and influence in the European gaming sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRSL) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brightstar Lottery stock, see the BRSL Stock Forecast page.