Brightstar Lottery (BRSL)
NYSE:BRSL
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Brightstar Lottery
(NYSE:BRSL)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▼(-16.35% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is held down primarily by financial constraints—very high leverage and a sharp TTM cash-flow reversal—alongside bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a moderate P/E and management’s reaffirmed full-year guidance with strong operational momentum in iLottery and EBITDA.
Positive Factors
High Operating Margins
Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins indicate durable unit economics from lottery services and scale advantages in printing, retail and digital channels. These margins support reinvestment, dividend capacity and resilience to moderate top-line volatility over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Very high leverage materially reduces financial flexibility in a cyclical, discretionary industry. It raises refinancing, covenant and interest-cost risk, limiting the firm's ability to pursue opportunistic M&A or absorb downside from jackpot volatility or slower retail recoveries over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Operating Margins
Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins indicate durable unit economics from lottery services and scale advantages in printing, retail and digital channels. These margins support reinvestment, dividend capacity and resilience to moderate top-line volatility over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.12B
Dividend Yield24.38%
Average Volume (3M)1.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth-12.37%
EPS Growth-69.61%
CountryUS
Employees11,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.51
Shares Outstanding189,426,970
10 Day Avg. Volume2,309,844
30 Day Avg. Volume1,535,571
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)3.49
Price to Sales (P/S)1.21
P/FCF Ratio-7.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.50Price Target Upside17.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.51B
Brightstar Lottery Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
A pure‑play global lottery operator - providing technology and services for regulated lotteries. Previously included gaming and iGaming operations, which were divested....
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Brightstar Lottery Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of solid operational and financial strengths—robust adjusted EBITDA growth, strong iLottery momentum, Italy product success, disciplined capital returns and a strong liquidity position—against several near-term headwinds including modest reported revenue growth, a material noncash service amortization impact (~$50M/quarter), U.K. transition effects, and a New Jersey LMA shortfall driven by jackpot volatility. Management reiterated full-year targets and stressed confidence in second-half acceleration driven by product launches, digital expansion and retail initiatives. The positives (profitability expansion, digital growth, balance sheet/ liquidity, and shareholder returns) were notable but balanced by near-term revenue and jackpot-related challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Constant Currency Growth
Quarterly revenue of ~$587–$590M, up 1% as reported and up 3% on a constant currency basis excluding service revenue amortization. Growth driven by strong Italy performance and favorable U.S. mix.
Negative Updates
Modest Reported Revenue Growth and Near-Term Pressure
Reported revenue growth was only 1% in Q1. Management expects Q2 revenue to be below prior year primarily due to higher service revenue amortization and other transitional impacts.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Constant Currency Growth
Quarterly revenue of ~$587–$590M, up 1% as reported and up 3% on a constant currency basis excluding service revenue amortization. Growth driven by strong Italy performance and favorable U.S. mix.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 revenue, profit and cash‑flow guidance while warning of near‑term headwinds: Q2 revenue is expected below prior year and Q2 adjusted EBITDA modestly below prior year, driven by roughly $50M per quarter of higher non‑cash service‑revenue amortization from the new Italy concession, the U.K. transition (about a 2% drag each quarter), and a likely New Jersey LMA shortfall (Q1 booked ~$10M with a similar ~$10M expected in Q2, ~ $20M H1 total). Q1 actuals that frame the outlook were ~$587–590M revenue, $287M adjusted EBITDA (+15% reported, +5% cc), a reported EBITDA margin near 49% (≈42% excluding upfront license amortization), $165M cash from operations (impacted by >$50M working‑capital timing), $110M capex (~2/3 for Italy terminals), and >$70M returned to shareholders in Q1 (~$30M buybacks and $42M dividend, $0.23/sh; LTM quarterly cash dividend yield ~7%). Balance‑sheet and tax assumptions: net debt leverage 2.4x today, expected to peak around 3.5x midyear then trend toward the ~3.0x target, total liquidity ~€1.8B after the April 24 final Italy license payment (first two installments totaled $926M in 2025; final installment €1.67B; Brightstar’s share 61.5%), effective tax rate expected in the high‑30s% for 2026 (cash taxes ≈$150M vs $220M prior year), and FX assumption updated to €1.17/USD; management expects product sales (3–5% lift per H2 quarter), ~1% contribution from iLottery and ~1% from Italy B2C to help drive stronger second‑half performance.Brightstar Lottery Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.51B | 2.51B | 2.51B | 2.53B | 2.60B | 4.09B |
| Gross Profit | 1.15B | 1.27B | 1.33B | 1.37B | 1.20B | 1.96B |
| EBITDA | 939.00M | 882.00M | 1.14B | 1.12B | 1.42B | 1.41B |
| Net Income | 157.00M | 147.00M | 348.00M | 156.00M | 275.00M | 482.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.46B | 9.16B | 10.28B | 10.46B | 10.43B | 11.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.27B | 1.45B | 584.00M | 508.00M | 590.00M | 591.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.08B | 4.25B | 5.47B | 5.78B | 6.03B | 6.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.36B | 7.57B | 8.22B | 8.51B | 8.45B | 9.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 848.00M | 875.00M | 1.65B | 1.44B | 1.43B | 1.28B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -520.99M | -415.00M | 881.00M | 893.00M | 737.00M | 740.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -161.11M | -99.00M | 1.03B | 1.04B | 899.00M | 978.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.97B | 3.82B | -357.00M | -467.00M | 168.00M | 636.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.34B | -3.03B | -586.00M | -564.00M | -1.06B | -1.90B |
Brightstar Lottery Technical Analysis
Negative
13.15
Price Trends
12.43
Negative
13.15
Negative
14.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.52
Positive
39.69
Neutral
24.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.97, above the 50-day MA of 12.43, and below the 200-day MA of 14.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRSL.
Brightstar Lottery Risk Analysis
Brightstar Lottery disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brightstar Lottery reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brightstar Lottery Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $2.07B | 15.46 | 19.97% | 1.22% | 5.77% | 16.30% | |
73 Outperform | $6.30B | 61.26 | 26.36% | ― | 28.20% | 310.24% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.26B | ― | -44.48% | ― | 6.38% | -1099.20% | |
50 Neutral | $1.23B | ― | -73.93% | ― | 1048.48% | -16.25% | |
46 Neutral | $2.12B | 16.01 | 15.22% | 24.38% | -12.37% | -69.61% | |
42 Neutral | $646.12M | -0.90 | -115.26% | ― | 16.60% | -75.69% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery
11.20
-0.85
-7.02%
SBET
SharpLink Gaming
6.23
-0.49
-7.29%
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort
116.81
35.92
44.41%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
16.88
1.80
11.94%
RSI
Rush Street Interactive
27.06
15.12
126.63%
BALY
Bally's Corporation
13.20
2.20
20.00%
Brightstar Lottery Corporate Events
Brightstar Lottery Files May 2026 Form 6-K with Q1 Unaudited Results and Risk Disclosures
May 12, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC filed a Form 6-K in May 2026 providing unaudited condensed consolidated financial information for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, including balance sheets, statements of operations, cash flows, and shareholders’ equi...
Brightstar Lottery Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results and Reaffirms Outlook
May 12, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC reported its first-quarter 2026 results on May 12, 2026, posting revenue of $587 million, a 1% year-on-year increase driven by strong Italy same-store sales, a favorable U.S. sales mix and currency benefits, partly offset by...
Brightstar Lottery Sets May 12, 2026 AGM and Releases 2025 Annual Report
Apr 2, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC announced on April 2, 2026 that it has posted to shareholders the formal Notice of its 2026 Annual General Meeting and its Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended December 31, 2025. The documents, including the Form 20...
Brightstar Lottery Secures US$650m and €1bn Revolving Credit Facilities to Refinance Debt
Mar 31, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Brightstar Lottery PLC entered into a new senior secured multicurrency revolving credit facilities agreement totaling US$650 million and €1.0 billion, with a five-year maturity and pricing linked to Term SOFR and EURIBOR p...
Brightstar Lottery Publishes 2025 Results as Pure-Play Global Lottery Operator
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Brightstar Lottery PLC published its Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended December 31, 2025, following the February 24, 2026 filing of its 2025 Form 20-F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The report show...
Brightstar Lottery Files 2025 Form 20-F with SEC, Publishes Audited Results
Feb 24, 2026
Brightstar Lottery PLC, a leading global lottery technology and services provider, has filed its 2025 Annual Report on Form 20‑F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, dated February 24, 2026, covering audited financial statements...
Brightstar Lottery Posts Strong Q4 2025, Hikes Dividend and Adds Independent Director
Feb 24, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Brightstar Lottery reported its fourth‑quarter and full‑year 2025 results, with Q4 revenue up 3% to $668 million and adjusted EBITDA rising 5%, driven by a 3.5% same‑store sales increase led by U.S. multi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.