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Brightstar Lottery (BRSL)
NYSE:BRSL

Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) AI Stock Analysis

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BRSL

Brightstar Lottery

(NYSE:BRSL)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(14.29% Upside)
Brightstar Lottery's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call results and a high dividend yield, indicating potential undervaluation. However, financial performance challenges, including declining profitability and high leverage, weigh on the score. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, adding moderate influence.

Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Brightstar Lottery Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBrightstar Lottery (BRSL) is a premier gaming and lottery company specializing in providing innovative lottery solutions and services. Operating in the gaming sector, BRSL focuses on developing and managing lottery games, including traditional draw games, instant win games, and online lottery platforms. The company aims to enhance player engagement through cutting-edge technology and marketing strategies, ensuring a seamless gaming experience for its customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyBrightstar Lottery generates revenue primarily through ticket sales from its lottery games, including both physical tickets and online purchases. The company earns a percentage of the total sales as profit, which is further boosted by high player participation in its various gaming offerings. Additionally, BRSL partners with state and national lottery organizations to manage and operate lottery programs, receiving a commission for these services. The company also explores revenue opportunities through advertising partnerships and promotional campaigns, utilizing its extensive player base to attract sponsors. By continuously innovating its product offerings and expanding its market reach, Brightstar Lottery leverages multiple revenue streams to enhance its financial performance.

Brightstar Lottery Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call revealed strong financial results, with better-than-expected Q3 revenue and profit driven by robust same-store sales growth and significant shareholder returns. The company successfully transitioned to a lottery pure-play business and reduced net debt. However, challenges such as the U.K. contract transition and increased revenue amortization were noted.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Q3 Revenue and Profit
Brightstar Lottery reported better-than-expected Q3 revenue and profit results, driven by significant global same-store sales acceleration. Year-to-date revenue reached $1.8 billion.
Successful Sale of IGT Gaming
Closed the sale of IGT Gaming for $4 billion in cash, refocusing the company as a lottery pure-play business.
Significant Shareholder Returns
Returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, including a 10% increase in the cash dividend per share.
Strong Same-Store Sales Growth
Same-store sales rose 8% in Q3, with multi-state jackpot sales up 70%.
Global iLottery Sales Growth
Global iLottery sales increased over 30%, with notable growth in Italy and the U.S.
Improved Financial Position
Net debt reduced to $2.6 billion, with total liquidity of $3.2 billion and a leverage ratio of 2.3x.
Negative Updates
U.K. Contract Transition Impact
The transition of the U.K. contract negatively impacted Q3 revenue by around $6 million and is expected to cause a $14 million headwind to revenue and EBITDA in Q4.
Negative Impact of Lotto License Fee
Cash flow from operations and free cash flow were negatively impacted by the first installment of the Lotto license fee.
Increased Revenue Amortization
Increased revenue amortization associated with the new Lotto concession will weigh on reported revenue growth.
Company Guidance
During the Brightstar Lottery Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance and updates on its financial performance and strategic initiatives. For the third quarter, Brightstar reported a revenue of $629 million, marking a 7% increase from the prior year, driven by a significant 8% rise in global same-store sales. In the U.S., same-store sales were up 8%, with multi-state jackpot sales growing by 70%, fueled by a $1.8 billion Powerball jackpot. Italy also saw mid-single-digit growth in same-store sales. Brightstar's adjusted EBITDA rose by 11% to $294 million, and adjusted EPS improved from a $0.02 loss in the prior year to $0.36 in the current quarter. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook of approximately $2.5 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively. With a focus on shareholder returns, Brightstar announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.22 per share. The company is also investing in AI and digital initiatives, with global iLottery sales increasing over 30% during the period. Brightstar anticipates continued growth, targeting a revenue of approximately $2.75 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion by 2028.

Brightstar Lottery Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Brightstar Lottery Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price15.75
Price Trends
50DMA
16.05
Negative
100DMA
16.14
Negative
200DMA
14.63
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Negative
RSI
46.87
Neutral
STOCH
58.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.63, below the 50-day MA of 16.05, and above the 200-day MA of 14.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRSL.

Brightstar Lottery Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$1.79B17.7319.40%1.22%4.61%22.90%
68
Neutral
$4.42B76.8529.67%23.15%
66
Neutral
$2.97B14.041.61%24.38%-34.93%83.72%
54
Neutral
$859.35M-2.21-114.88%0.36%47.55%
47
Neutral
$1.95B-2.31-35.97%8.24%-77.54%
40
Underperform
$1.82B-1.15-0.07%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery
15.67
1.97
14.38%
SBET
SharpLink Gaming
9.24
-0.23
-2.43%
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort
98.26
20.64
26.59%
PENN
PENN Entertainment
14.65
-4.05
-21.66%
RSI
Rush Street Interactive
19.25
5.43
39.29%
BALY
Bally's Corporation
17.48
0.03
0.17%

Brightstar Lottery Corporate Events

Brightstar Lottery PLC Prices $750M Notes and Plans Redemption
Dec 3, 2025

On December 3, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced the successful pricing of $750 million in 5.750% Senior Secured Notes due 2033. The proceeds will be used to redeem the company’s existing $750 million 6.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2027. This strategic financial move is expected to optimize the company’s debt structure and potentially enhance its market position by reducing interest costs. The settlement of the new notes is anticipated to occur on December 15, 2025, subject to customary conditions.

Brightstar Lottery PLC Launches Senior Secured Notes Offering
Dec 2, 2025

On December 2, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced a benchmark offering of senior secured notes due 2033, co-issued with its subsidiary, Brightstar Global Solutions Corporation. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem $500 million of the company’s outstanding senior secured notes due 2027 and to cover related debt issuance costs. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance the company’s debt structure and improve its market positioning.

Brightstar Lottery Secures Nine-Year Italy Lotto Concession
Nov 28, 2025

On November 18, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced that its subsidiary, LottoItalia S.r.l., signed a nine-year agreement to operate the Italy Lotto. This agreement, effective from November 30, 2025, positions Brightstar Lottery as a key player in the Italian lottery market, potentially increasing its market share and revenue streams. The concession includes managing the Lotto game and other fixed-odds number games, with provisions for potential amendments due to regulatory changes. This strategic move is expected to enhance the company’s operational footprint and influence in the European gaming sector.

Brightstar Lottery Secures Nine-Year Italy Lotto Operation
Nov 18, 2025

On November 18, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced that its subsidiary, LottoItalia S.r.l., has signed a nine-year agreement to continue operating the Italy Lotto. This agreement, following a competitive bid process, extends Brightstar’s management of the Italy Lotto license, which it has held for over 30 years, until November 2034. The deal is expected to enhance the company’s market position by driving growth in Lotto wagers through new player touchpoints and digital innovations. This development underscores Brightstar’s strategic focus on expanding its digital offerings and strengthening its presence in the Italian lottery market.

Brightstar Lottery PLC Reports Strong Financial Position as of September 2025
Nov 4, 2025

Brightstar Lottery PLC has released its financial information for the period ending September 30, 2025, showing significant changes in its financial position compared to December 31, 2024. The company’s cash and cash equivalents increased from $584 million to $1,599 million, indicating a strong liquidity position. This financial update provides insights into the company’s operational efficiency and market positioning, which could have implications for stakeholders and investors.

Brightstar Lottery Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Announces Dividend
Nov 4, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Brightstar Lottery PLC announced its third-quarter results for 2025, reporting a 7% increase in revenue to $629 million, driven by strong same-store sales growth. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.22 per share, payable on December 2, 2025. Brightstar completed the sale of IGT Gaming for $4 billion, refocusing as a lottery pure play, and introduced medium-term financial targets, aiming for $2.75 billion in revenue by 2028. The company is well-positioned with $1.6 billion in cash and plans to return $1.7 billion to shareholders by 2028, reflecting a robust growth strategy.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025