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HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)
NYSE:DINO
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HF Sinclair Corporation
(NYSE:DINO)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
▲(6.28% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
Overall score reflects stable but cyclical fundamentals (improved earnings and a solid balance sheet, offset by contracting revenue and softer/volatile free cash flow). Technicals are currently bearish, while valuation is supportive due to a moderate P/E and ~4% dividend yield. The latest earnings call adds both upside from disciplined capex and strategic projects and downside from SRE dependence, turnaround impacts, and governance/disclosure uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength & liquidity
Sizeable liquidity and falling gross debt give HF Sinclair durable financial flexibility to fund turnarounds, optional growth, and shareholder returns without urgent refinancing. This reduces short-term solvency risk and supports execution of multi-quarter projects and capex plans.
Scale and operating efficiency
Record throughput and lower per-barrel operating costs indicate improved refinery utilization and unit-cost competitiveness. Higher scale and efficiency are enduring advantages that bolster margins through cycles and improve long-term refining cash generation capacity.
Strategic growth projects & marketing expansion
Targeted projects and the retail JV expand downstream control and product mix, adding high-margin marketing exposure and heavy-crude processing capability. These initiatives enhance integration optionality and provide multi-quarter structural upside to EBITDA and diversification of earnings.
Negative Factors
Regulatory/policy dependency (SREs)
A meaningful portion of recent margin and cash improvements stem from SRE waivers, exposing recurring profitability to EPA decisions and policy shifts. This makes future earnings and cash flow outcomes less predictable and heightens structural regulatory risk over coming quarters.
Revenue contraction and cash volatility
Sustained top-line decline and weakening free cash flow reduce scale benefits and constrain capacity to invest or sustain distributions. Even with positive FCF today, the downward revenue trend and cash volatility limit durable margin expansion and increase sensitivity to cycle swings.
Governance & leadership uncertainty
A CEO leave and an active Audit Committee review introduce execution and disclosure risk that can delay strategic decisions, disturb investor confidence, and complicate oversight. Over the next several months this can impede seamless project delivery and capital allocation.
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.86B
Dividend Yield4.26%
Average Volume (3M)3.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.8
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth-9.55%
EPS Growth27.65%
CountryUS
Employees5,297
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.20
Shares Outstanding180,273,200
10 Day Avg. Volume2,900,568
30 Day Avg. Volume3,329,039
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio9.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$58.80Price Target Upside-2.36% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)4.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.15B
HF Sinclair Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company. It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others. The company also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming; and markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, it supplies fuels to approximately 1,300 independent Sinclair-branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 300 additional locations, as well as engages in the growing renewables business. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum industry. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyHF Sinclair primarily makes money by buying crude oil and other feedstocks and converting them into higher-value refined products, then selling those products into wholesale and retail channels. A significant portion of earnings is driven by the “crack spread” (the margin between the market value of refined products and the cost of crude/feedstocks), along with refinery utilization, product mix, and operating/logistics costs.
Key revenue streams include:
1) Refining and wholesale product sales: The company sells gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined outputs to wholesale customers and into regional product markets. Revenue and profitability fluctuate with commodity prices, regional supply/demand balances, and refinery operating performance.
2) Marketing (retail and branded supply): HF Sinclair sells fuels through branded and unbranded channels. This includes supplying fuel to stations and capturing marketing margins that depend on local retail/wholesale differentials, volumes, and competitive conditions.
3) Lubricants and specialty products (within marketing operations): The company generates revenue from selling lubricants and other specialty products, which typically depend more on volumes, branding, and customer relationships than on short-term crude price movements.
4) Renewable diesel and associated environmental attributes: HF Sinclair earns revenue from sales of renewable diesel (where produced) and may also benefit from monetizing associated environmental credits/attributes tied to renewable fuel production (availability, pricing, and eligibility depend on applicable programs and market conditions).
Other important factors that influence earnings include access to advantaged crude/feedstock supply, the ability to move crude and products efficiently (logistics/transport), refinery reliability and downtime, regulatory compliance costs, and overall fuel demand. Information on specific partnerships or contract terms contributing to earnings is null.
HF Sinclair Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented materially improved operational and financial results for 2025 — including record throughput, strong adjusted EBITDA (full-year $2.3B) and meaningful shareholder returns — as well as strategic initiatives (JV formation, midstream expansion, El Dorado project) and healthy liquidity. Offsetting these positives are important risks and near‑term weaknesses: a Q4 GAAP net loss driven by special items, reliance on SREs for a large portion of 2025 EBITDA and cash, renewable diesel and lubricants margin pressures, working capital headwinds, planned turnarounds that pressure early‑2026 runs, and governance/disclosure uncertainty related to the CEO voluntary leave and an Audit Committee review. Taken together, the operational and cash‑return progress is strong but tempered by governance/disclosure risk and exposure to policy and cyclical factors, leaving a balanced near‑term outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year and Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA
Reported full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $2,300,000,000 and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $564,000,000, up from $28,000,000 in Q4 2024 (increase of ~1,914%).
Refining Segment Turnaround to Positive Adjusted EBITDA
Fourth-quarter refining adjusted EBITDA (ex-LCM and other adjustments) of $403,000,000 versus negative $169,000,000 in Q4 2024 — large absolute improvement driven by higher adjusted refinery gross margins.
Record Throughput and Lower Operating Costs
Set annual throughput record of 652,000 barrels per day and achieved operating expense per throughput barrel of $7.67; overall refining operating costs declined by $87,000,000 year‑over‑year.
Marketing Segment Growth and JV Formation
Marketing delivered record annual EBITDA of $103,000,000 (a 37% increase over the prior record) and net growth of 117 supplied branded sites; announced Green Trail Fuels LLC joint venture (50% non‑operating interest) to add >30 retail sites in Colorado and New Mexico.
Midstream and Lubricants Scale
Midstream delivered record annual adjusted EBITDA of $459,000,000; lubricants & specialties delivered annual EBITDA of $261,000,000 and integration of Industrial Oils Unlimited underway to capture regional synergies.
Large Shareholder Returns and Strong Liquidity
Returned over $724,000,000 to shareholders in 2025 (and over $4,700,000,000 since March 2022); Board declared quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share; total liquidity of ~$3,000,000,000 (including $978,000,000 cash and a $2,000,000,000 undrawn facility).
Capital Discipline and 2026 Guidance
Guidance for 2026 sustaining capital of ~$650,000,000 (down $125,000,000 vs. 2025) and $125,000,000 growth capital; expected refining runs of 585,000–615,000 bpd in 2026 reflecting planned turnarounds.
SREs and Cash Contribution
Small refinery exemption (SRE) waivers materially increased adjusted refining gross margin by $313,000,000 in Q4 2025 (includes $43,000,000 recognized from Q3) and management reported total EBITDA impact of $485,000,000 for the full year with cash impact just under $300,000,000 for the year.
Value‑Adding CapEx Projects
El Dorado vacuum furnace project to increase heavy crude processing by ~10,000 bpd with estimated capital cost of ~$55,000,000 ( ~$37,000,000 already spent) and expected annual EBITDA uplift of $25,000,000–$30,000,000.
Negative Updates
Q4 GAAP Net Loss and Special Charges
Fourth-quarter net loss attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders of $28,000,000 (–$0.16 per diluted share); special items collectively reduced net income by $249,000,000.
Reliance on SREs Creates Uncertainty
A meaningful portion of 2025 EBITDA and cash flow improvements are attributable to SRE waivers (Q4 benefit $313,000,000; full-year EBITDA impact $485,000,000 and cash impact just under $300,000,000), creating sensitivity to EPA decisions and future program changes.
Operational Disruptions in Q4 Refining
Seasonal weakness, a planned Puget Sound turnaround and an unplanned Artesia refinery event contributed to weaker refining earnings late in the quarter and required inventory liquidation in a falling margin environment.
Renewables Segment Weakness
Renewables reported adjusted EBITDA of negative $6,000,000 in Q4 (excluding a $7,000,000 LCM charge) and total sales volumes fell to 57,000,000 gallons in 2025 from 62,000,000 gallons in 2024.
Lubricants & Specialties Q4 Decline
Lubricants & specialty segment adjusted EBITDA declined to $43,000,000 in Q4 2025 from $70,000,000 in Q4 2024, driven by lower finished & specialty sales volumes, weaker Group II/III base oil margins, and higher operating costs (including Mississauga turnaround impacts).
Weak Q4 Operating Cash Flow and Working Capital Headwinds
Net cash provided by operations was only $8,000,000 in Q4 2025 (including $122,000,000 of turnaround spend); management noted working capital was a headwind in Q4 due to inventory build and accounts payable effects in a declining price environment.
Leadership and Disclosure Process Uncertainty
CEO Timothy Go requested a voluntary leave of absence and the Audit Committee is assessing matters relating to the company's disclosure processes; management limited comments and declined to discuss specifics, creating governance and disclosure uncertainty and negative market reaction (stock down premarket).
Renewable Diesel & Feedstock Sensitivity
Renewable diesel economics remain sensitive to RIN and feedstock dynamics; while management sees improving fundamentals, they declined to provide firm per‑gallon EBITDA guidance and noted recent catalyst work and operational changes were required.
Segment‑Specific Headwinds and Turnarounds
Planned turnarounds (Puget Sound, Woods Cross) and other maintenance/turnaround activity will weigh on run rates in early 2026 (guidance for 585,000–615,000 bpd in 2026 reflects those planned outages).
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: for full-year 2026 HF Sinclair expects sustaining capital of ~ $650 million (down $125M vs. 2025) plus ~$125 million of growth capital, plans crude throughput of 585,000–615,000 barrels per day (reflecting planned Puget Sound and Woods Cross turnarounds), is targeting a midyear final investment decision on phase one of a westward midstream pipeline expansion, and expects the El Dorado vacuum furnace project (total ~ $55M capex, $37M spent in 2025) to be completed in Q4 with ~10,000 bpd additional heavy crude capability and an expected $25–30M annual EBITDA uplift; the company reiterated it is bullish on refining margins in 2026, expects sustaining capex to trend below recent high maintenance levels, plans to grow branded sites ~10% annually (announced Green Trail Fuels JV with a 50% non‑operating interest covering >30 sites), and noted strong liquidity to fund plans (total liquidity ~ $3.0B including ~$978M cash and a $2.0B undrawn credit facility; debt ~$2.8B; debt‑to‑capital 23%, net‑debt‑to‑capital 15%); the Board declared a $0.50 per share quarterly dividend payable 03/12/2026 (record 03/02/2026).HF Sinclair Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mid-level fundamentals: income statement shows a TTM rebound in net income ($579M) and better margins, and the balance sheet is solid with manageable, improving leverage (debt down to $2.77B; ~0.30 D/E). Offsetting this are multi-year revenue contraction (TTM -13.3%) and weakening/volatile cash flow with TTM FCF down ~29.8% despite still-positive FCF ($644M).Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a clear rebound versus 2024, with net income rising to $579M from $177M and improved operating profitability (EBITDA margin ~6.8% vs ~4.3% in 2024). However, revenue has been contracting for several years, including -13.3% in TTM, and profitability remains well below the 2022–2023 peak (when margins and earnings were materially stronger). Overall, earnings power is positive again but more cyclical and currently mid-cycle versus prior highs.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable and improving, with total debt down to $2.77B in TTM from $3.10B in 2024 and a modest debt-to-equity ratio (~0.30 in TTM). Equity remains sizable (~$9.25B), supporting balance sheet flexibility. The main weakness is lower returns on equity in the most recent periods (TTM ~6.2% and 2024 ~1.9%) compared with very strong 2022–2023 levels, reflecting softer profitability rather than balance sheet strain.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive, with TTM operating cash flow of $1.32B and free cash flow of $644M, and free cash flow covering a large portion of net income (about 79%). That said, cash flow momentum is weakening: free cash flow declined sharply versus the prior period (TTM free cash flow growth -29.8%), and operating cash flow has been less consistent over the cycle (including very weak generation in 2021). Overall, cash flow is solid but trending softer and somewhat volatile.58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 26.87B | 28.58B | 31.96B | 38.20B | 18.39B |
| Gross Profit | 1.39B | 3.21B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 1.86B | 1.22B | 3.12B | 4.77B | 1.42B |
| Net Income | 579.00M | 177.00M | 1.59B | 2.92B | 558.32M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.73B | 16.64B | 17.72B | 18.35B | 12.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 978.00M | 800.00M | 1.35B | 1.67B | 234.44M |
| Total Debt | 3.23B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 3.72B | 3.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.48B | 7.30B | 7.48B | 8.33B | 6.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.18B | 9.28B | 10.17B | 9.24B | 5.69B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 866.00M | 640.00M | 1.91B | 3.25B | -406.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.31B | 1.11B | 2.30B | 3.78B | 406.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -516.00M | -468.00M | -371.32M | -774.49M | -1.33B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -631.00M | -1.18B | -2.24B | -1.56B | -211.80M |
HF Sinclair Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
60.22
Price Trends
53.21
Positive
51.78
Positive
48.76
Positive
Market Momentum
1.88
Negative
64.48
Neutral
86.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DINO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.81, above the 50-day MA of 53.21, and above the 200-day MA of 48.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DINO.
HF Sinclair Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $70.32B | 11.90 | 15.90% | 3.68% | -10.56% | -53.06% | |
69 Neutral | $71.72B | 10.87 | 9.88% | 2.74% | -8.48% | -56.92% | |
68 Neutral | $68.54B | 12.26 | 24.01% | 2.24% | -6.37% | -25.83% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $10.86B | 14.84 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
57 Neutral | $5.77B | -19.51 | -3.05% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
47 Neutral | $3.40B | 94.69 | 4.13% | 10.50% | -7.21% | 135.72% |
* Energy Sector Average
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
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28.49
89.76%
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33.82
13.53
66.68%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
232.53
86.97
59.75%
PSX
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175.47
53.48
43.84%
VLO
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87.13%
PBF
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49.32
30.41
160.80%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.