Mercedes-Benz Group Ag (DE:MBG)
OTHER OTC:MBG
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Mercedes-Benz Group
(OTC:MBG)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
€52.00
▼(-1.25% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by weakening financial momentum (compressed margins and lower returns) and elevated leverage, partly offset by continued positive free cash flow. Technicals are weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is a relative positive (moderate P/E and high dividend yield). Earnings-call commentary supports a cautious outlook: clear efficiency and product initiatives, but meaningful near-term headwinds and a 2026 transition year increase execution risk.
Positive Factors
Cash generation / Free cash flow
Consistent, sizable operating cash flow (~€15.8B TTM) and solid FCF (~€9.2B TTM) provide durable financial flexibility. This supports EV capex, funds dividends/buybacks and services debt during margin recovery, reducing reliance on external financing and smoothing execution risks.
Negative Factors
Margin compression and weaker profitability
Material margin compression (net margin ~3.7% TTM versus ~7% in 2024) reflects pricing, mix and cost pressure. Persistently lower margins reduce reinvestment capacity, weaken earnings power and make targets dependent on successful execution of efficiency programs and product mix improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation / Free cash flow
Consistent, sizable operating cash flow (~€15.8B TTM) and solid FCF (~€9.2B TTM) provide durable financial flexibility. This supports EV capex, funds dividends/buybacks and services debt during margin recovery, reducing reliance on external financing and smoothing execution risks.
Read all positive factors
Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€46.15B
Dividend Yield7.25%
Average Volume (3M)2.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth-8.64%
EPS Growth-43.01%
CountryDE
Employees163,132
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.09
Shares Outstanding962,903,700
10 Day Avg. Volume3,036,137
30 Day Avg. Volume2,632,077
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.25
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio4.79
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€60.08Price Target Upside14.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)5.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)€132.18B
Mercedes-Benz Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automotive company in Germany and internationally. The company develops, manufactures, and sells passenger cars comprising premium and luxury vehicles of the Mercedes-Benz brand, including the Mercedes-AMG, G-...
How the Company Makes Money
MBG makes money primarily by selling vehicles and by providing vehicle-related services that generate revenue during and after the initial sale. Key revenue streams include: (1) Vehicle sales: Revenue from wholesale/retail sales of Mercedes-Benz p...
Mercedes-Benz Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call mixed clear strategic initiatives and concrete numerical bridges (efficiency program, product rollouts, cash return framework, U.S. growth ambition) with significant near-term headwinds (China volume weakness, tariff/FX impact, BEV pricing pressure and EV margin dilution). Management emphasized a measured, efficiency-driven path to midterm margin targets and described 2026 as a transition/ramp year with stronger momentum expected in 2027. Given the balance of ambitious plans and visible execution risks in the near term, the tone was constructive but cautious.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth Target
Company set a midterm revenue growth target of ~7% (management referenced this target during Q&A).
Negative Updates
China Sales Weakness and Market Share Pressure
China segment sales declined ~19% while the total China market fell ~15% (management acknowledged their sales expected to remain below 2025 in 2026). Management noted entry segments have shifted and some product niches (e.g., CLA) have low unit volumes in China.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth Target
Company set a midterm revenue growth target of ~7% (management referenced this target during Q&A).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated midterm guidance aiming roughly 7% revenue growth and a passenger‑car EBIT margin (cars return on sales) of 3–5% for 2026, with a midpoint foundation adjusted by a −1 percentage‑point headwind from FX and incremental tariffs (tariff impact rising from ~110bp in 2025 to ~150bp in 2026, potentially ~200bp midterm) offset by +1.5ppt from volume/price/mix/BEV and +4ppt from efficiency programs; EV ramp‑up is expected to dilute early margins (H2 2026 ramp, stronger contribution in 2027), underlying industrial free cash flow is targeted at >€4bn, potential M&A/divestment proceeds were illustrated at ~€2bn (with scope to be higher), shareholder returns of ~€6bn were signaled (≈€5.1bn dividend + €1.7bn remaining buyback), U.S. volume is targeted to grow from ~300k (2025) to ~400k midterm, China joint‑venture delivered double‑digit margin in 2025 but is guided to be down in 2026 with recovery in 2027, tariff effects cost roughly €1bn in 2025, and production capacity moves (e.g., Kecskemét potential ~200k→400k units) and product timing (S‑Class and AMG rollouts peaking in 2027) are key drivers of the outlook.Mercedes-Benz Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 130.59B | 132.21B | 145.59B | 152.39B | 150.02B | 133.89B |
| Gross Profit | 21.23B | 22.33B | 28.58B | 35.00B | 34.02B | 30.68B |
| EBITDA | 12.84B | 13.90B | 21.50B | 27.44B | 27.25B | 23.22B |
| Net Income | 4.88B | 5.14B | 10.21B | 14.26B | 14.50B | 23.01B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 258.62B | 255.47B | 265.01B | 263.02B | 260.01B | 259.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.60B | 19.19B | 21.60B | 22.12B | 23.92B | 29.83B |
| Total Debt | 99.53B | 100.01B | 112.80B | 109.43B | 111.84B | 125.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 163.39B | 161.23B | 171.38B | 170.21B | 173.47B | 186.66B |
| Stockholders Equity | 94.20B | 93.26B | 92.63B | 91.77B | 85.42B | 71.95B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.22B | 12.52B | 9.07B | 6.26B | 13.41B | 19.97B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.82B | 18.01B | 17.73B | 14.47B | 16.89B | 24.55B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.90B | -9.20B | -8.75B | -7.32B | -3.45B | -6.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.20B | -10.45B | -10.75B | -8.39B | -19.03B | -19.06B |
Mercedes-Benz Group Technical Analysis
Positive
52.66
Price Trends
51.73
Positive
53.62
Negative
51.86
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
60.18
Neutral
-11.25
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:MBG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 52.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.44, above the 50-day MA of 51.73, and above the 200-day MA of 51.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -11.25 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:MBG.
Mercedes-Benz Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | €46.15B | 8.80 | 5.56% | 7.25% | -8.64% | -43.01% | |
60 Neutral | €9.40B | 1.08 | 7.44% | 4.81% | -13.16% | ― | |
54 Neutral | €45.11B | 7.99 | 7.79% | 4.64% | -6.27% | 3.34% | |
52 Neutral | €42.66B | 7.50 | 3.77% | 6.13% | -2.06% | -33.95% | |
50 Neutral | €12.24B | 199.88 | -2.42% | 2.88% | -50.46% | -114.13% | |
45 Neutral | €7.45B | -10.97 | -13.00% | 3.15% | 29.16% | 47.66% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
DE:MBG
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.