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Mercedes-Benz Group Ag (DE:MBG)
:MBG
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Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG) AI Stock Analysis

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DE:MBG

Mercedes-Benz Group

(OTC:MBG)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
€58.00
▲(17.39% Upside)
Mercedes-Benz Group's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary strengths. However, technical indicators are mixed, and earnings call highlights challenges, particularly with tariffs and the China market, slightly dampening the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Capital Returns
Mercedes has a generous capital returns programme with substantial dividend payouts and share buybacks.
Cost-Cutting Initiatives
Mercedes is pursuing a 'Next Level Performance' €5bn cost-cutting/returns enhancing programme.
Shareholder Returns
Mercedes' commitment to strong shareholder returns remains unaffected by the current turmoil, indicating resilience despite the challenges.
Negative Factors
Guidance and Outlook
Mercedes is guiding for Group revenue slightly below prior-year level, Group EBIT and free cash flow significantly below prior-year level.
Market Conditions
Market weakness and geographic mix are expected to offset improvements from tariff pass-through and product mix, resulting in flat average selling prices (ASPs).
Tariff Impact
The impact of tariffs on Mercedes' FY25 margins is estimated to be significant, with 300bps for Cars and 200bps for Vans.

Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Mercedes-Benz Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automotive company in Germany and internationally. The company develops, manufactures, and sells passenger cars comprising premium and luxury vehicles of the Mercedes-Benz brand, including the Mercedes-AMG, G-Class, Mercedes-Maybach, and Mercedes-EQ brands, as well as small cars under the smart brand; ecosystem of Mercedes-Benz under the Mercedes me brand; and vans under the Mercedes-Benz and Freightliner brands, as well as related spare parts and accessories. It also provides financing and leasing packages for end-customers and dealers; automotive insurance brokerage and banking services; car subscription and car rental, and fleet management, as well as digital services for charging and payment; and mobility services. The company was formerly known as Daimler AG and changed its name to Mercedes-Benz Group AG in February 2022. Mercedes-Benz Group AG was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany.
How the Company Makes MoneyMercedes-Benz Group primarily generates revenue through the sale of its luxury vehicles, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The company sells these vehicles through a global network of dealerships and direct sales channels. Another significant revenue stream comes from its financial services division, which provides financing, leasing, and insurance solutions to customers purchasing Mercedes-Benz vehicles. Additionally, MBG earns income from after-sales services, including maintenance, repair, and the sale of spare parts. The company's commitment to innovation has also led to investments in electric mobility and digital services, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth. Strategic partnerships with technology companies and investments in autonomous driving technologies further enhance its revenue potential.

Mercedes-Benz Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -7.14%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a company navigating a challenging environment with a solid strategy in place. Mercedes-Benz is making significant strides in product development and electric mobility, showing resilience in its van segment despite economic headwinds. However, the impact of tariffs and challenges in the China market are notable concerns, alongside adjusted sales guidance and uncertainty in tariff transitions.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Financial Performance and Cash Flow
Mercedes-Benz reported a solid financial performance for Q2, producing a robust cash flow. The company has been focused on cash flow generation, achieving a strong quarter in terms of cash flow.
Product and Technology Offensive
Mercedes-Benz is in the midst of a massive product and technology offensive, launching more than 25 individual models over the next 3 years. The new CLA and CLA shooting brake have been well received, particularly in the European market.
Expansion in Electric Mobility
The company is set to unveil its first vehicle of the Mercedes-Benz electric architecture (MB.EA) at the International Auto Show in Munich. This marks a significant step in Mercedes-Benz's journey towards electric mobility.
Van Segment Performance
Despite a challenging economic environment, the van segment performed well, with Mercedes-Benz maintaining a competitive position. The company noted a significant order of 5,000 e-vans from Amazon.
Strategic Capital Allocation
Mercedes-Benz has covered its dividend payout with the free cash flow generated year-to-date and is committed to its capital allocation framework, which includes potential share buybacks.
Negative Updates
Impact of Tariffs on Financial Performance
The company's financial performance has been affected by tariffs, with a mid-3-digit million euro tariff impact in Q2. The full-year tariff impact is expected to be around 150 basis points.
Challenges in China Market
The macroeconomic environment in China remains subdued, impacting Mercedes-Benz's sales and financial performance. The competitive environment continues to be a challenge.
Lower Sales Guidance
Mercedes-Benz has adjusted its sales guidance for 2025, now expecting sales to be significantly below 2024 levels, mainly due to challenges in China.
Uncertain Tariff Transition
There is uncertainty regarding the transitioning to the new tariff regime, which could impact the company's financial performance.
Company Guidance
During the Mercedes-Benz conference call for Q2 2025, the company provided guidance on several key metrics. They reported a solid financial performance, with a focus on cash flow generation, achieving an EBIT of 5.1% including tariffs, and 6.6% excluding tariffs. The company faced a mid-3-digit million euro impact from tariffs, which accounted for approximately 150 basis points of the EBIT margin. Despite a challenging market environment, particularly in China, Mercedes-Benz managed a healthy 14% Top-End sales as a percentage of total sales, with slight growth in xEVs, mainly in plug-in hybrids. For the fiscal year, the company anticipates car sales to be significantly below 2024 levels, with a continued focus on cash conversion and a commitment to launching over 25 new models in the next three years. Looking ahead, the guidance for return on sales adjusted for cars is set within a range of 4% to 6%, factoring in the assumed continuation of current tariffs. The van division is expected to achieve a return on sales of 8% to 10%, while the Mercedes-Benz Mobility division aims for a return on equity of 8% to 9%. Overall, Mercedes-Benz remains focused on product and technology offensives, while managing tariff impacts and market uncertainties.

Mercedes-Benz Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mercedes-Benz Group shows strong financial performance with robust profitability and efficient cash flow management, despite minor revenue fluctuations and manageable debt levels.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Mercedes-Benz Group demonstrates strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin over recent periods. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a Gross Profit Margin of 19.62% and a Net Profit Margin of 6.23%. However, revenue has shown some fluctuation, with a slight decrease of 1.82% from the previous year. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust at 7.28% and 13.14% respectively, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet reveals a stable financial structure with a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.92, reflecting a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 9.45%, which is healthy, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio is 36.09%, indicating a solid equity base, but there's room for improvement in reducing liabilities.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Mercedes-Benz Group's cash flow position is strong, with a positive Free Cash Flow of €13.21 billion in the TTM period, showing significant growth from the prior year. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 2.15, reflecting efficient cash generation relative to profits. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.48, highlighting robust cash flow relative to earnings, supporting future investments and debt repayments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue139.35B145.59B153.22B150.02B133.89B121.78B
Gross Profit25.65B28.58B34.63B32.58B29.37B18.66B
EBITDA16.65B27.84B27.44B32.83B19.09B11.91B
Net Income6.81B10.21B14.26B14.50B10.66B3.63B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets256.63B265.01B263.02B258.89B258.62B284.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments26.87B21.60B18.99B20.06B24.32B25.51B
Total Debt86.40B112.80B87.21B84.41B93.85B114.76B
Total Liabilities164.91B171.38B170.21B173.47B186.66B223.49B
Stockholders Equity90.83B92.63B91.77B85.42B71.95B60.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow14.96B9.07B6.26B13.41B19.97B16.59B
Operating Cash Flow20.87B17.73B14.47B16.89B24.55B22.33B
Investing Cash Flow-11.10B-8.75B-7.32B-3.45B-6.23B-6.42B
Financing Cash Flow-8.33B-10.75B-8.39B-19.03B-19.06B-10.75B

Mercedes-Benz Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price49.41
Price Trends
50DMA
51.12
Negative
100DMA
50.74
Negative
200DMA
51.18
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.28
Positive
RSI
41.82
Neutral
STOCH
3.69
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:MBG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.97, below the 50-day MA of 51.12, and below the 200-day MA of 51.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:MBG.

Mercedes-Benz Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
€47.58B7.137.24%8.76%-7.14%-43.43%
61
Neutral
$16.54B10.12-9.02%3.34%1.44%-22.51%
$58.00B9.616.06%5.04%
€10.64B2.05
3.63%
€45.98B5.425.01%
65
Neutral
€13.86B32.8414.67%2.06%-1.78%-30.46%
$17.09B10.5514.83%0.04%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DE:MBG
Mercedes-Benz Group
49.41
-4.01
-7.50%
BAMXF
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft
96.79
13.65
16.42%
GB:0JHU
Porsche Automobil Holding
34.75
-1.92
-5.24%
GB:0P6O
Volkswagen
90.30
2.30
2.61%
DE:KBX
Knorr-Bremse AG
85.95
17.01
24.67%
CTTAF
Continental Aktiengesellschaft
86.37
25.39
41.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 31, 2025