Volkswagen (VOW3) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €51.53B
• Dividend Yield: 6.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: 0.49%
• EPS Growth: -45.70%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 639,608
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): -0.96
• Shares Outstanding: 206,205,440
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 909,278
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,074,958
• PEG Ratio: -0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.24
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.14
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €119.77
• Price Target Upside: 16.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: €105.00 ▲(2.19% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by pressured fundamentals—shrinking operating/net margins, rising leverage, and persistently negative free cash flow. Technicals are neutral-to-slightly supportive (above longer-term moving averages but muted momentum), while valuation is a key offset with a low P/E and high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial stability.

Digital Cockpit Solutions Partnership

The partnership with Ecarx enhances Volkswagen's digital offerings, aligning with industry trends towards connected vehicles and improving competitive positioning.

In-House Chip Development

Developing in-house chips can reduce dependency on external suppliers, enhance product differentiation, and improve competitive edge in the EV market.

Negative Factors

High Debt Levels

High debt levels can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, necessitating careful management to ensure long-term financial health.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative Free Cash Flow indicates challenges in funding operations and investments, potentially impacting growth and financial stability if not addressed.

Chip Shortages

Ongoing chip shortages can disrupt production and sales, impacting revenue and market share in the competitive automotive industry.

Volkswagen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells automobiles primarily in Europe, North America, South America, and the Asia-Pacific. The company operates in four segments: Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles, Commercial Vehicles, Power Engineering, and Financial Services. The Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles segment develops vehicles, engines, and vehicle software; and light commercial vehicles; and produces and sells passenger cars and related parts. The Commercial Vehicles segment develops, produces, and sells trucks and buses; and offers parts and related services. The Power Engineering segment offers large-bore diesel engines, turbomachinery, and propulsion components. The Financial Services segment provides dealer and customer financing, leasing, banking and insurance, fleet management, and mobility services. The company also offers motorcycles. It provides its products under the Volkswagen Passenger Cars, Audi, KODA, SEAT, Bentley, Porsche, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Scania, MAN, Lamborghini, Ducati, and Bugatti brands. Volkswagen AG was founded in 1937 and is based in Wolfsburg, Germany. Volkswagen AG operates as a subsidiary of Porsche Automobil Holding SE.

How the Company Makes Money

Volkswagen generates revenue primarily through the sale of vehicles across its multiple brands, which includes both internal combustion engine (ICE) and electric vehicles (EVs). The company earns significant income from its financing operations, offering leasing and financing solutions to customers through Volkswagen Financial Services. Additionally, Volkswagen benefits from partnerships with technology firms to enhance its electric vehicle offerings and digital services. The company's revenue model is also supported by after-sales services, which include maintenance, repairs, and parts sales. Furthermore, Volkswagen is increasingly focused on software and mobility services, opening new avenues for growth and income.

Volkswagen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has weakened materially (net margin down from ~5.1% in 2023 to ~2.2% TTM; EBIT margin down from ~7.2% to ~3.8% TTM). Leverage increased in TTM (debt-to-equity ~1.61) while returns fell (ROE ~4% TTM). The largest concern is persistently negative free cash flow (TTM about -€10.9B) and low operating cash flow coverage of debt.

Income Statement

Revenue is essentially flat from 2023–2024 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a sharp step-up, but profitability has clearly weakened: net profit fell from 5.1% (2023) to 3.5% (2024) and is down to ~2.2% in TTM. Operating profitability also compressed (EBIT margin ~7.2% in 2023 to ~5.6% in 2024 and ~3.8% in TTM), indicating either higher costs, pricing pressure, or mix headwinds. Still, gross margin has remained relatively steady around ~18–19%, suggesting the bigger issue is below-the-line/operating cost burden rather than core manufacturing economics alone.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful for the sector and has trended worse in TTM: debt-to-equity moved from ~1.08–1.10 (2022–2024) up to ~1.61 in TTM, signaling a higher balance-sheet risk profile. Equity is sizable (~€169B in TTM), but returns have weakened alongside earnings, with return on equity dropping from ~9–10% (2022–2023) to ~6% (2024) and ~4% in TTM. The asset base is large and relatively stable, but the combination of higher leverage and declining returns reduces financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area. Free cash flow is negative in 2023, 2024, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with TTM free cash flow around -€10.9B, pointing to heavy investment/working-capital demands and limited near-term self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow remains positive, but it covers only a small portion of total debt (coverage is low across periods and ~0.07 in TTM), and free cash flow is also negative relative to net income in recent periods—suggesting accounting earnings are not translating into cash available for shareholders or deleveraging.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	326.05B	324.66B	322.28B	279.05B	250.20B	222.88B
Gross Profit	59.80B	61.03B	62.03B	52.57B	47.06B	39.13B
EBITDA	47.65B	48.22B	49.84B	50.01B	46.69B	36.35B
Net Income	7.12B	11.35B	16.53B	15.46B	15.38B	8.87B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	638.78B	632.90B	600.34B	564.01B	528.61B	497.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	65.55B	73.45B	74.91B	70.77B	66.88B	59.27B
Total Debt	271.47B	196.52B	193.97B	178.44B	183.37B	174.31B
Total Liabilities	455.27B	436.17B	410.43B	385.69B	382.45B	368.33B
Stockholders Equity	169.09B	182.29B	175.69B	165.38B	144.45B	127.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-10.87B	-10.29B	-6.44B	5.83B	20.14B	7.16B
Operating Cash Flow	15.39B	17.15B	19.36B	28.50B	38.63B	24.90B
Investing Cash Flow	-30.50B	-31.57B	-19.81B	-41.82B	-26.13B	-22.69B
Financing Cash Flow	1.21B	11.14B	16.01B	4.22B	-7.75B	7.64B

Volkswagen Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 102.75
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:VOW3, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 102.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 102.37, above the 50-day MA of 102.64, and above the 200-day MA of 96.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:VOW3.

Volkswagen Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MBG	77 Outperform	€55.65B	8.92	6.56%	7.25%	-7.08%	-38.11%
BMW	71 Outperform	€51.88B	7.67	7.35%	4.64%	-8.40%	-11.54%
8TRA	68 Neutral	€16.47B	9.26	10.20%	5.67%	-7.11%	-30.83%
DTG	68 Neutral	€31.36B	14.28	10.04%	5.13%	-10.34%	-31.23%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
PAH3	57 Neutral	€11.10B	-0.52	-45.93%	4.81%	-39.68%	-659.81%
VOW3	54 Neutral	€51.53B	7.73	4.00%	6.13%	0.49%	-45.70%