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TRATON SE
(XETRA:8TRA)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
€42.00
▲(6.06% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (negative free cash flow) alongside softer margins and relatively high leverage. Offsetting factors include a strong technical uptrend and an earnings call that pointed to improving demand and profitability with raised/narrowed guidance, though cash uncertainty and cost/timing effects remain meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Order backlog strength
A sharp 44% order intake increase and book-to-bill >1 indicate a meaningful backlog that supports revenue conversion over coming quarters. For capital goods, backlog provides durable revenue visibility, smoothing cyclicality and underpinning H2 delivery and margin recovery potential.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Persistently negative free cash flow reduces financial flexibility and constrains deleveraging or shareholder returns. Heavy capex, R&D capitalization and working-capital pressure mean reliance on balance-sheet capacity or external financing, increasing vulnerability to funding cost shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Order backlog strength
A sharp 44% order intake increase and book-to-bill >1 indicate a meaningful backlog that supports revenue conversion over coming quarters. For capital goods, backlog provides durable revenue visibility, smoothing cyclicality and underpinning H2 delivery and margin recovery potential.
Read all positive factors
TRATON SE (8TRA) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€20.36B
Dividend Yield2.28%
Average Volume (3M)178.11K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth-4.02%
EPS Growth-18.86%
CountryDE
Employees107,517
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAgricultural - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.54
Shares Outstanding500,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume185,345
30 Day Avg. Volume178,111
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.22
Price to Book (P/B)0.82
Price to Sales (P/S)0.35
P/FCF Ratio-8.05
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€38.10Price Target Upside-3.79% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)€46.61B
TRATON SE Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Traton SE, a leading global manufacturer of commercial vehicles, segments its operations into an Industrial Business division and Financial Services. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a broad spectrum of light and heavy-duty co...
How the Company Makes Money
TRATON SE makes money primarily by selling commercial vehicles (trucks and buses) produced and marketed by its operating brands. Revenue is generated from (1) new vehicle sales to fleet operators, dealers, and end customers; and (2) aftermarket an...
TRATON SE Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed improving operational momentum: strong order intake, accelerating top‑line trends, improved Q2 profitability (adjusted RoS 8.1%), BEV volume acceleration and targeted investments (including EUR 850m green financing). Management raised the lower end of RoS guidance and narrowed full‑year revenue/unit sales guidance toward the upper end while upgrading some regional outlooks (notably North America and China). However, results were aided by a one‑off tariff receivable timing effect (~EUR 120m), cash generation remains weak (H1 net cash negative EUR 269m; net debt up EUR 351m), input‑cost headwinds from the Iran war and a high R&D cash burden persist, and North American deliveries and China underutilization constrain near‑term upside. On balance, positive operational and demand signals outweigh the material uncertainties and temporary accounting/timing effects.Positive Updates
Q2 Unit Sales and Revenue Momentum
Q2 unit sales rose 4% YoY to almost 83,000 units and Q2 sales revenue increased 4% YoY to EUR 11.8 billion; half‑year sales revenues returned to flat YoY despite a slow Q1 start.
Negative Updates
Tariff and Accounting Timing Effects
Q2 results included a positive tariff‑related catch‑up of around EUR 120 million (recognition of expected Section 232 refunds and IEEPA recoveries); tariffs remain a cash burden and timing/negotiation with U.S. authorities is uncertain.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Unit Sales and Revenue Momentum
Q2 unit sales rose 4% YoY to almost 83,000 units and Q2 sales revenue increased 4% YoY to EUR 11.8 billion; half‑year sales revenues returned to flat YoY despite a slow Q1 start.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TRATON narrowed and lifted guidance on the back of stronger Q2 momentum: full-year unit sales and sales revenue are now expected to grow 0–7%, with adjusted return on sales guidance raised to 6.3–7.3% (H1 adjusted RoS 7.0%; Q2 8.1%); Q2 unit sales rose 4% to almost 83,000 and Q2 sales revenue was €11.8bn (+4%), while H1 unit sales were down 1% and H1 revenue was roughly flat. Order intake strengthened sharply (Q2 +44%, Q1 +18%, H1 +30%) with a Q2 book-to-bill of 1.2, supporting an expectation of stronger H2 (Q3 seasonally weaker, Q4 strong). Regional market midpoints were kept/raised: Europe +2.5%, North America +5% (Class 8 +9% to ~282,000 units), South America −5%, China 0%; BEV deliveries accelerated (Q2 +67% to 1,050; H1 1,907, +53%; Europe BEV ratio ex-van H1 2.6% vs 1.9% LY). Cash and balance-sheet metrics: TRATON Operations net cash flow was −€269m in H1, net debt rose €351m YTD, and net cash flow guidance remains €0.9–1.7bn; management flagged a ~€120m tariff-related catch‑up in Q2 (International RoS Q2 5.6%), ongoing high R&D spend and Iran-related input‑cost headwinds (low triple‑digit million annual gross), which temper upside despite the tightened, upper‑end guidance.TRATON SE Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 44.14B | 44.05B | 47.47B | 46.87B | 40.34B | 30.62B |
| Gross Profit | 8.10B | 8.42B | 10.10B | 9.24B | 6.85B | 5.54B |
| EBITDA | 6.24B | 5.76B | 7.42B | 6.68B | 4.81B | 3.14B |
| Net Income | 1.77B | 1.55B | 2.80B | 2.45B | 1.14B | 457.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 71.57B | 68.20B | 65.55B | 61.70B | 58.26B | 55.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.37B | 3.38B | 3.41B | 1.78B | 2.21B | 2.81B |
| Total Debt | 28.70B | 27.04B | 9.43B | 22.11B | 21.13B | 18.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 52.36B | 49.57B | 47.70B | 45.21B | 43.88B | 41.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.21B | 18.63B | 17.84B | 16.48B | 14.37B | 13.44B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.06B | -1.89B | -401.00M | 374.00M | -2.57B | -65.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 691.00M | 902.00M | 2.34B | 2.58B | -660.00M | 1.53B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.99B | -2.73B | -2.81B | -2.37B | -1.81B | -2.45B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.34B | 2.02B | 1.39B | -128.00M | 2.22B | 1.17B |
TRATON SE Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | €1.49B | 14.66 | 6.71% | 3.18% | 8.50% | 97.84% | |
68 Neutral | €39.69M | 15.09 | 15.80% | ― | 13.19% | ― | |
64 Neutral | €4.78B | 41.97 | 25.11% | 1.28% | 17.16% | 102.59% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | €37.41B | 27.19 | 6.48% | 4.13% | -17.39% | -50.68% | |
59 Neutral | €20.36B | 11.50 | 9.48% | 2.35% | -4.02% | -18.86% | |
52 Neutral | €5.10B | 13.20 | 6.24% | 1.53% | 1.99% | 67.69% |
* Industrials Sector Average
DE:8TRA
TRATON SE
39.80
10.62
36.41%
DE:KGX
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40.55
-13.87
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22.40
0.97
4.54%
DE:DTG
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48.12
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26.38%
DE:LMIA
Lion E-Mobility AG
2.12
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DE:R3NK
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48.50
-19.26
-28.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.