Hochtief (HOT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €30.81B
• Dividend Yield: 1.58%
• Average Volume (3M): 64.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.26
• Revenue Growth: 22.16%
• EPS Growth: 18.23%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 54,035
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 3.35
• Shares Outstanding: 77,711,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 65,004
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 64,141
• PEG Ratio: 1.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 20.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.66
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €317.18
• Price Target Upside: -21.26% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 13.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €44.06B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: €429.00 ▲(6.50% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

The score is driven by solid operating momentum and strong free cash flow, but materially held back by very high leverage and thin margins. Technicals are supportive, while valuation (high P/E with modest yield) is a notable headwind.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow generation

Sustained operating cash flow (~€2.0B TTM) and solid free cash flow (~€1.6B TTM) provide durable internal funding for large projects, concessions and capex. This supports reinvestment, selective project financing and resilience through cycles without sole reliance on external capital.

Recovering and growing revenues

Consistent revenue growth (≈6% TTM) following multi-year recovery demonstrates improving market demand and contract execution. A rising top line across geographies supports capacity utilization and long-term backlog conversion, stabilizing cash flows and enabling incremental margin recovery if execution remains sound.

Integrated project expertise and market position

Hochtief's global scale and expertise in complex, large-scale projects across planning, execution and concessions creates durable competitive advantage. Integrated lifecycle capabilities win large public/private contracts, foster repeat business and support concession income streams that smooth revenue over long horizons.

Negative Factors

Very high financial leverage

Excessive leverage (debt-to-equity ≈8.5x) materially constrains financial flexibility and magnifies downside risk. In a sector with project timing and margin variability, high debt elevates refinancing, covenant and interest-rate exposure, reducing room to absorb execution setbacks or slower markets.

Thin and compressed margins

Low net and EBITDA margins and recent gross-margin compression leave limited buffer against cost inflation or project overruns. In construction, tight margins increase earnings volatility, lower ability to self-insure overruns, and heighten the importance of flawless project execution for sustainable profitability.

Debt capacity limited by cashflow coverage

Although absolute free cash flow is strong, operating cash flow covers only ~16% of total debt annually, implying deleveraging will be gradual. The company remains exposed to refinancing cycles and must sustain multi-year strong cash conversion to materially reduce leverage without asset sales or equity issuance.

Hochtief Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft engages in the construction business worldwide. The company operates through HOCHTIEF Americas, HOCHTIEF Asia Pacific, HOCHTIEF Europe, and Abertis Investment divisions. The HOCHTIEF Americas division provides building and transportation infrastructure construction services primarily in the United States and Canada. The HOCHTIEF Asia Pacific division offers infrastructure construction, resource and mineral processing services, engineering and technical services, and maintenance services in the Asia-Pacific region. This division also undertakes public-private partnerships (PPP). The HOCHTIEF Europe division provides services primarily for infrastructure and building construction projects, as well as PPP in transportation, energy, social, and urban infrastructure. It also offers engineering services, including virtual construction, and facility management; and designs, develops, builds, operates, and manages real estate and infrastructure. The Abertis Investment segment operates toll roads in France, Spain, North America, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. The company also provides insurance products; and reinsurance products primarily for contractors' casualty and surety, subcontractor default, liability, and occupational accident insurance. HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Essen, Germany. HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft operates as a subsidiary of ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A.

How the Company Makes Money

Hochtief generates revenue primarily through its construction activities, which include building, civil engineering, and special construction projects. The company earns money by undertaking large-scale projects, often funded by public and private sector contracts, where it acts as the main contractor or subcontractor. Significant revenue streams also come from its project development segment, where Hochtief develops real estate and manages infrastructure projects. Additionally, the concessions business allows the company to invest in, operate, and maintain infrastructure assets, generating long-term revenue through tolls, fees, or service contracts. Hochtief's partnerships with other construction firms, governments, and private entities further enhance its project capabilities and revenue opportunities. Economic conditions, government spending on infrastructure, and construction market dynamics significantly impact the company's earnings.

Hochtief Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operations and cash generation are solid (revenue up ~6% TTM, improving earnings, ~€1.6B TTM free cash flow), but the balance sheet is a major constraint with very high leverage (debt-to-equity ~8.5x) in a thin-margin business (TTM net margin ~2.3%).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rose to ~€38.2B (up ~6% vs. 2024), extending a multi-year rebound after the 2020–2021 revenue declines. Profitability is steady but thin for the sector, with TTM net margin ~2.3% and EBITDA margin ~6.2%. A key positive is the clear improvement in earnings since 2021 (net income up materially), but margins remain modest and gross margin has compressed versus 2024 (about 21% vs. 26%), which increases sensitivity to project execution risk and cost inflation.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the main weakness: TTM total debt is ~€8.7B against equity of ~€1.27B, implying very high debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~8.5x), worse than 2023–2024. While returns on equity are strong (TTM ~85%), they are amplified by the thin equity base. Total assets are broadly stable (~€24.9B TTM), but the balance sheet profile leaves less room for error if profitability or cash generation softens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a strength: TTM operating cash flow is ~€2.0B and free cash flow ~€1.6B, with a strong step-up in free cash flow growth in TTM. Free cash flow is solid relative to earnings (about 73% of net income TTM), supporting financial flexibility. The main watchout is that operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of total debt (TTM coverage ~0.16x), meaning deleveraging capacity depends on sustained cash flow over multiple years rather than rapid paydown.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	38.24B	33.30B	27.76B	26.22B	21.38B
Gross Profit	2.91B	8.78B	6.85B	6.32B	5.29B
EBITDA	1.66B	2.03B	1.07B	968.99M	747.04M
Net Income	902.33M	775.63M	522.75M	481.77M	293.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.94B	24.65B	19.01B	18.30B	16.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.07B	6.25B	5.78B	4.94B	4.57B
Total Debt	8.65B	8.20B	5.50B	5.67B	4.83B
Total Liabilities	23.55B	23.46B	17.74B	17.07B	15.15B
Stockholders Equity	1.27B	1.07B	1.24B	1.13B	801.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.61B	1.66B	1.12B	863.28M	307.96M
Operating Cash Flow	2.04B	2.13B	1.34B	1.05B	387.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.61B	-1.49B	-249.67M	-484.59M	-220.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-85.51M	346.11M	-583.61M	-167.20M	-1.08B

Hochtief Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 402.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:HOT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 402.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 377.64, above the 50-day MA of 361.12, and above the 200-day MA of 256.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 14.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DE:HOT.

Hochtief Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GBF	74 Outperform	€4.47B	24.11	14.63%	1.93%	10.17%	-20.99%
KGX	69 Neutral	€8.36B	30.75	4.56%	1.23%	-2.20%	-18.16%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
HOT	62 Neutral	€30.81B	34.14	100.05%	1.58%	22.16%	18.23%
HLE	62 Neutral	€9.26B	57.32	5.24%	1.17%	<0.01%	-50.97%
G1A	61 Neutral	€10.63B	26.52	17.71%	2.01%	2.26%	6.49%
TKA	50 Neutral	€6.47B	39.69	4.81%	1.23%	-6.29%	―