Bilfinger (GBF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €3.64B
• Dividend Yield: 1.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 83.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: 10.17%
• EPS Growth: -20.99%
• Country: DE
• Employees: 31,478
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 1.44
• Shares Outstanding: 37,606,373
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 81,028
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 83,661
• PEG Ratio: -18.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €116.67
• Price Target Upside: 19.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €5.69B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: €115.00 ▲(17.83% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (growth, stronger cash generation, and lower leverage). This is tempered by weak technicals (downtrend with oversold signals) and only moderately attractive valuation for a cyclical, project-driven business.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth and improving profitability

Revenue acceleration into 2025 (≈+12% in 2024, ≈+13% in 2025) alongside materially improved operating profit versus the 2022 trough indicates sustained client demand and stronger project execution. This durable top-line momentum supports longer-term earnings recovery and contract competitiveness.

Strengthened operating and free cash flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow improved materially into 2025, with 2025 FCF of €299.0m and stronger coverage of earnings historically (~60–74%). Consistent, higher FCF enhances funding for capex, debt reduction and strategic investments, improving financial flexibility over the medium term.

Improving leverage and balance-sheet quality

Marked decline in debt-to-equity and a growing equity base improve resilience to downturns, lower refinancing risk and free capacity for investment in digitalization and services. Solid ROE levels support shareholder capital returns while stronger balance-sheet cushions enhance medium-term stability.

Negative Factors

Project-driven cyclicality and earnings volatility

Bilfinger operates a project-heavy, cyclical services model where revenue and cash timing are tied to project schedules and sector cycles. This structural cyclicality makes earnings and cash flows volatile across cycles, complicating multi-quarter planning and reducing predictability for investors and creditors.

Inconsistent margin expansion

Reported margins remain moderate and variable, with 2024 gross margin ~10.9% and net margin ~3.6%. Persistent margin variability limits operating leverage and makes sustained profitability dependent on pricing discipline, project mix and execution—structural challenges in competitive industrial services.

Uneven cash conversion from working-capital dynamics

Working-capital swings tied to project billing and timing have produced uneven cash conversion (notably a FCF dip in 2023). These structural swings can strain short-term liquidity, complicate reliable FCF forecasting and affect the timing of debt reduction, dividends and reinvestment over coming quarters.

Bilfinger Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bilfinger SE provides industrial services to customers in the process industry primarily in Europe, North America, and the Middle East. The company offers engineering, project, maintenance, turnaround, rotating equipment, and inspection services. It also provides new construction and decommissioning of nuclear power plants, treatment of radioactive waste, nuclear fusion services. In addition, the company offers energy efficiency, carbon capture, utilization, and storage; hydrogen, hydropower, wind power services. Further, the company provides design and engineering, plant engineering and assembly operation and optimization, bilfinger connected asset performance, PID graph, and mobile and web application services. It serves customers in chemical and petrochemical, energy and utilities, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and biopharma, metallurgy, and cement industries. Bilfinger SE was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Mannheim, Germany.

How the Company Makes Money

Bilfinger generates revenue through a multi-faceted business model that includes project-based contracts, long-term service agreements, and consultancy services. Key revenue streams consist of maintenance services, where the company provides ongoing support and optimization for industrial facilities, and project execution, which involves the design and implementation of complex engineering projects. Additionally, Bilfinger benefits from strategic partnerships with major companies in the energy and chemical sectors, allowing it to secure large-scale contracts. The company's focus on digital solutions also opens up new revenue opportunities through the provision of innovative technologies that enhance operational efficiency for clients.

Bilfinger Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid fundamentals: revenue growth accelerated into 2025, profitability improved meaningfully versus the 2022 trough, leverage declined, and operating/free cash flow strengthened sharply. Offsets are margin variability and the inherent volatility of project-based cash flows.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2023 to 2025 (with 2024 up ~12% and 2025 up ~13%), showing improving demand and execution. Profitability also looks healthier versus 2022: operating profit and net income are much stronger in 2023–2025 after a notably weak 2022 net profit. A key watch-out is that margins have not been consistently expanding (e.g., 2024 gross margin ~10.9% and net margin ~3.6%), and earnings appear somewhat volatile across the cycle for an Engineering & Construction business.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable and improving: debt relative to equity declined from ~0.52 (2023) to ~0.29 (2024), and equity has been building. Returns on shareholder capital are solid in 2023–2024 (~15.5% to ~13.8%), supporting balance-sheet quality. The main risk is that the business still operates with meaningful debt and cyclical exposure, and returns can swing materially (as seen in 2022).

Cash Flow

Cash generation has strengthened materially: operating cash flow rose from 2023 to 2025 (144.8m → 241.1m → 364.3m), and free cash flow also improved sharply, with 2025 free cash flow of 299.0m (up strongly versus 2024). Free cash flow covered a meaningful portion of earnings in 2023–2024 (~60% to ~74%), indicating decent earnings quality. A weakness is that cash conversion has been uneven year-to-year (including a decline in free cash flow in 2023), which is common in project-driven working-capital models.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.43B	5.04B	4.49B	4.31B	3.74B
Gross Profit	617.20M	546.80M	463.50M	437.10M	387.00M
EBITDA	408.30M	394.30M	295.70M	171.20M	242.50M
Net Income	176.00M	179.50M	181.50M	28.20M	129.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.66B	3.46B	3.36B	3.05B	3.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	519.20M	533.50M	728.90M	615.90M	861.40M
Total Debt	373.60M	376.50M	608.80M	443.50M	449.40M
Total Liabilities	2.31B	2.15B	2.18B	1.97B	1.86B
Stockholders Equity	1.33B	1.30B	1.17B	1.09B	1.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	299.00M	177.90M	86.20M	106.30M	53.70M
Operating Cash Flow	364.30M	241.10M	144.80M	158.00M	115.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-94.70M	111.60M	-217.60M	156.10M	283.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-214.30M	-427.70M	40.70M	-382.80M	-239.00M

Bilfinger Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 97.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:GBF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 97.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 109.53, below the 50-day MA of 115.81, and below the 200-day MA of 99.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:GBF.

Bilfinger Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KRN	75 Outperform	€3.66B	14.37	14.99%	1.95%	8.15%	16.17%
GIL	68 Neutral	€3.81B	53.84	8.88%	2.19%	-13.98%	45.95%
GBF	63 Neutral	€3.64B	22.68	13.51%	1.93%	10.17%	-20.99%
HOT	62 Neutral	€29.92B	28.10	100.05%	1.58%	22.16%	18.23%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
TKA	47 Neutral	€4.94B	-4.09	1.72%	1.23%	-6.29%	―
SHA0	45 Neutral	€6.60B	-18.63	-34.39%	3.15%	45.16%	-790.24%