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Ducommun
(NYSE:DCO)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$201.00
▲(45.65% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and negative TTM cash flow despite strong revenue growth and improved leverage. Technicals and the latest earnings call are constructive—showing an established uptrend, improving margins, and reiterated growth guidance—but the high P/E and destocking/order-timing risks reduce overall conviction.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth and backlog
Sustained top-line momentum and a large RPO/backlog provide durable revenue visibility across multiple quarters. Book-to-bill >1 and recurring program content reduce short-term volatility from single customers and support stable conversion of backlog into forward revenue as aerospace production and defense ramps continue.
Negative Factors
Negative cash flow and recent net losses
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow despite revenue growth undermines the company's ability to self-fund working capital, capital expenditures or M&A. Over months this forces reliance on credit or equity, raises execution risk, and constrains investment needed to sustain margin targets and program delivery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth and backlog
Sustained top-line momentum and a large RPO/backlog provide durable revenue visibility across multiple quarters. Book-to-bill >1 and recurring program content reduce short-term volatility from single customers and support stable conversion of backlog into forward revenue as aerospace production and defense ramps continue.
Read all positive factors
Ducommun (DCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)239.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth6.48%
EPS Growth-191.94%
CountryUS
Employees2,180
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.32
Shares Outstanding15,085,559
10 Day Avg. Volume250,539
30 Day Avg. Volume239,062
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)2.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.72
P/FCF Ratio-29.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-724.92
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$173.80Price Target Upside25.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$883.50M
Ducommun Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ducommun Incorporated, an established company founded in 1849 and based in Santa Ana, California, specializes in delivering advanced engineering and manufacturing solutions. Primarily, it caters to critical sectors within the United States, such a...
How the Company Makes Money
Ducommun makes money by manufacturing and selling aerospace and defense components and assemblies, largely as a supplier to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and major prime contractors. Its revenue is primarily generated from (1) Electronic...
Ducommun Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial start to 2026: record first-quarter revenue, double-digit improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin toward Vision 2027 goals, robust commercial aerospace recovery, solid defense/missile momentum, improved EPS and cash generation, and ample liquidity. Key near-term headwinds include remaining destocking, timing-related softness in some defense subsegments, and the timing uncertainty of booking large missile framework orders and M&A execution. On balance, the positive execution, margin expansion and sizable backlog/RPO outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Record Q1 Revenue and Continued Quarter Streak
Q1 2026 revenue of $209.0M, up ~8.6%–9% year-over-year (vs. $192.5M prior year); fourth consecutive quarter above $200M and 20th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth.
Negative Updates
Destocking and Inventory Overhang
Management continues to see destocking pressure (not fully resolved). Some destocking impact was deferred into Q1 and is expected to affect the remaining three quarters of 2026, particularly tied to legacy Spirit/Wichita fuselage inventory.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q1 Revenue and Continued Quarter Streak
Q1 2026 revenue of $209.0M, up ~8.6%–9% year-over-year (vs. $192.5M prior year); fourth consecutive quarter above $200M and 20th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of mid‑ to high‑single‑digit growth, noting Q1 was a strong start with record revenue of $209 million (≈9% YoY per the CEO; 8.6% YoY per the 10‑Q), driven by stronger‑than‑expected commercial aerospace and some destocking that was pulled into Q1; they expect destocking to still impact the remaining three quarters of 2026 with quarter‑to‑quarter growth now targeted in the mid‑ to high‑single‑digit range depending on destocking. Key supporting metrics called out on the call: RPO of almost $1.1 billion (up $86M YoY), bookings of $175M in Q1 and $925M trailing 12 months (trailing 12‑month book‑to‑bill 1.1; defense book‑to‑bill 1.2; commercial 1.0), Q1 gross margin 26.9% and adjusted EBITDA 16.9% (on the path to an 18% adjusted EBITDA target for 2027), Q1 adjusted operating margin 8.6%, Q1 GAAP EPS $0.64 / adjusted EPS $0.75, expected facility consolidation run‑rate savings of $13M by end‑2026, and available liquidity of $384M under a $650M credit facility.Ducommun Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 840.97M | 824.84M | 786.55M | 756.99M | 712.54M | 645.41M |
| Gross Profit | 225.68M | 221.62M | 197.26M | 163.19M | 144.30M | 142.46M |
| EBITDA | -3.82M | -913.00K | 85.65M | 69.72M | 76.31M | 210.06M |
| Net Income | -32.66M | -37.35M | 31.50M | 15.93M | 28.79M | 135.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.19B | 1.19B | 1.13B | 1.12B | 1.02B | 978.74M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.10M | 45.29M | 37.14M | 42.86M | 46.25M | 76.32M |
| Total Debt | 342.70M | 345.83M | 272.14M | 295.59M | 282.84M | 320.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 515.54M | 524.12M | 443.57M | 484.82M | 495.55M | 504.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 669.80M | 662.11M | 682.53M | 636.09M | 525.96M | 474.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -36.30M | -48.64M | 20.05M | 11.54M | 12.99M | -17.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -22.94M | -33.41M | 34.18M | 31.07M | 32.68M | -565.00K |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.20M | -13.12M | -13.91M | -133.50M | -19.24M | 57.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 42.51M | 54.68M | -26.00M | 99.05M | -43.51M | -37.34M |
Ducommun Technical Analysis
Positive
138.00
Price Trends
153.16
Positive
140.94
Positive
119.33
Positive
Market Momentum
9.70
Negative
74.66
Negative
88.11
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 138 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 166.62, below the 50-day MA of 153.16, and above the 200-day MA of 119.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.66 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DCO.
Ducommun Risk Analysis
Ducommun disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ducommun reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ducommun Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $5.57B | 30.79 | 12.07% | ― | 16.85% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $3.04B | 56.21 | 26.60% | ― | 8.64% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $7.58B | -148.80 | -0.96% | ― | 8.95% | 78.82% | |
61 Neutral | $2.81B | -80.43 | -4.86% | ― | 6.48% | -191.94% | |
59 Neutral | $238.99M | -13.79 | -2.44% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
DCO
Ducommun
186.60
101.69
119.76%
AIR
AAR
140.11
68.65
96.07%
ATRO
Astronics
70.83
44.79
172.05%
MRCY
Mercury Systems
126.21
74.78
145.40%
AIRO
Airo Group Holdings, Inc.
7.60
-14.30
-65.30%
Ducommun Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ducommun Adds Veteran Defense Leader to Board, Realigns Pay
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Ducommun appointed veteran aerospace and defense executive Mark A. Caylor as an independent Class II director, with a term running through the 2029 annual meeting, and named him to the Audit Committee. His addition continues a broa...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ducommun Shareholders Approve Directors, Compensation and Incentive Plan
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
Ducommun shareholders met on April 29, 2026, for the company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where they elected CEO Stephen G. Oswald and finance executive Samara A. Strycker to the board for three-year terms ending at the 2029 annual...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.