Ducommun (DCO)
NYSE:DCO
Top Page
Ducommun
(NYSE:DCO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$146.00
▲(5.69% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak 2025 profitability and negative operating/free cash flow despite solid revenue growth and a much stronger balance sheet. Offsetting factors include constructive 2026 guidance with strong defense bookings/backlog and improving adjusted margins, plus supportive technical uptrend signals, while valuation remains pressured by GAAP losses.
Positive Factors
Consistent Revenue Growth
Nineteen consecutive quarters of YoY revenue expansion shows durable demand and customer retention across cycles. This steady top-line trajectory supports capacity utilization, long-term supplier/contracts planning, and underpins achievable multi-year targets, reducing reliance on single-program wins.
Negative Factors
Negative Operating & Free Cash Flow
A swing to negative operating and free cash flow materially reduces internal funding for capex, working capital and strategic investments. If cash generation does not normalize, the company will rely more on credit or equity, constraining flexibility and increasing execution risk for multi-year targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent Revenue Growth
Nineteen consecutive quarters of YoY revenue expansion shows durable demand and customer retention across cycles. This steady top-line trajectory supports capacity utilization, long-term supplier/contracts planning, and underpins achievable multi-year targets, reducing reliance on single-program wins.
Read all positive factors
Ducommun (DCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.07B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)178.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth3.16%
EPS Growth-213.56%
CountryUS
Employees2,180
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.05
Shares Outstanding14,986,947
10 Day Avg. Volume162,977
30 Day Avg. Volume178,340
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)2.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.72
P/FCF Ratio-29.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda113.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$143.20Price Target Upside3.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$876.82M
Ducommun Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ducommun Incorporated provides engineering and manufacturing products and services primarily to the aerospace and defense, industrial, medical, and other industries in the United States. It operates through two segments, Electronic Systems and Str...
How the Company Makes Money
Ducommun generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aerospace and defense-related products and services. The company's revenue model is based on long-term contracts and relationships with key customers, which include prominent aerospace a...
Ducommun Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was largely positive: record quarterly and full-year revenue, record gross and adjusted EBITDA margins, strong missile and defense bookings, improving profitability and liquidity, and completed restructuring with visible run-rate savings. Near-term concerns include a large litigation settlement that pressured cash flow, ongoing commercial aerospace destocking (impacting H1 2026), some margin benefit from nonrecurring mix, and the need for continued M&A to fully achieve Vision 2027 revenue assumptions. On balance, the company demonstrated strong operational momentum and a constructive outlook, while acknowledging identifiable near-term headwinds and timing risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Extended Growth Streak
Q4 revenue reached a record $215.8M, up 9.4% year-over-year, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth.
Negative Updates
Large Litigation Settlement and Cash Impact
Entered binding settlement for the Guaymas fire litigation totaling $150M (with $56M funded by insurance); recorded $7.6M of settlement-related costs in Q4; litigation-related cash payments (~$101M) materially reduced operating cash flow in Q4 and full year 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Extended Growth Streak
Q4 revenue reached a record $215.8M, up 9.4% year-over-year, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to mid‑ to high‑single‑digit revenue growth for fiscal 2026 (with H1 in the low‑ to mid‑single‑digit range and growth ramping in H2), driven by continued defense strength and a commercial aerospace recovery, and reiterated its Vision 2027 targets (18% adjusted EBITDA by 2027 and 25%+ engineered product mix ambition; engineered products were 23% in 2025 vs 15% in 2022). For context they finished 2025 with record revenue of $825M (+5% y/y), Q4 revenue of $215.8M (+9.4% y/y and the 19th consecutive quarter of growth), RPO of $1.1B (+$75M sequentially), full‑year bookings of >$915M (book‑to‑bill 1.1x) and Q4 book‑to‑bill of 1.3x; missiles booked >$130M in Q4 (missile business +20% in 2025, missile book‑to‑bill >4x) including MIR orders >$80M. Margins remain a focus: Q4 gross margin 27.7% (up from 23.5% prior year; adjusted gross margin +370 bps y/y), Q4 adjusted EBITDA 17.5% ($37.9M, +$10.6M y/y) and Q4 adjusted operating margin 11.4% (vs 8.2%); management expects a blended 2026 EBITDA baseline nearer 16.5% with upside in H2. Operational and financial levers include $11–13M of targeted annual run‑rate savings from completed consolidations by end‑2026 (about half already realized), available liquidity of $390M, a $650M credit facility ($200M term loan + $450M revolver), Q4 interest expense of $3.5M (with a SOFR hedge at 170 bps on $150M), Q4 adjusted cash from ops excl. litigation of $26.5M (full‑year adjusted cash from ops excl. litigation $69.8M vs $34.2M in 2024), and one‑time Guaymas settlements totaling $150M (insured $56M) with related Q4 charges recorded.Ducommun Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 824.73M | 786.55M | 756.99M | 712.54M | 645.41M |
| Gross Profit | 221.62M | 197.26M | 163.19M | 144.30M | 142.46M |
| EBITDA | 2.52M | 85.65M | 69.72M | 76.31M | 210.06M |
| Net Income | -33.94M | 31.50M | 15.93M | 28.79M | 135.54M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.19B | 1.13B | 1.12B | 1.02B | 978.74M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 45.29M | 37.14M | 42.86M | 46.25M | 76.32M |
| Total Debt | 345.83M | 272.14M | 295.59M | 282.84M | 320.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 524.12M | 443.57M | 484.82M | 495.55M | 504.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 662.11M | 682.53M | 636.09M | 525.96M | 474.60M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -48.64M | 20.05M | 11.54M | 12.99M | -17.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -33.41M | 34.18M | 31.07M | 32.68M | -565.00K |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.12M | -13.91M | -133.50M | -19.24M | 57.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 54.68M | -26.00M | 99.05M | -43.51M | -37.34M |
Ducommun Technical Analysis
Positive
138.14
Price Trends
124.34
Positive
110.84
Positive
100.99
Positive
Market Momentum
1.97
Negative
66.56
Neutral
88.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 138.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 125.70, above the 50-day MA of 124.34, and above the 200-day MA of 100.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DCO.
Ducommun Risk Analysis
Ducommun disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ducommun reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ducommun Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $4.80B | 16.28 | 12.07% | ― | 17.59% | -56.15% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $2.60B | 71.09 | 14.92% | ― | 6.19% | 52.10% | |
59 Neutral | $2.07B | -41.88 | -5.01% | ― | 3.16% | -213.56% | |
55 Neutral | $4.85B | -73.03 | -2.08% | ― | 8.63% | 72.72% | |
52 Neutral | $277.26M | 19.40 | -0.61% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
DCO
Ducommun
138.14
80.31
138.87%
AIR
AAR
120.78
66.60
122.92%
ATRO
Astronics
72.85
49.84
216.60%
MRCY
Mercury Systems
80.81
36.20
81.15%
AIRO
Airo Group Holdings, Inc.
8.82
-22.18
-71.55%
Ducommun Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Ducommun Settles Guaymas Fire Subrogation Claim for $4M
Negative
Jan 9, 2026
On January 7, 2026, Ducommun Incorporated entered into a confidential settlement agreement to resolve a previously disclosed subrogation claim arising from a June 2020 fire at its performance center in Guaymas, Mexico, which had been pursued in an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.