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Ducommun
(NYSE:DCO)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$201.00
▲(13.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance driven by recent losses and negative operating/free cash flow in 2025 and TTM. Offsetting this, technicals are strong with clear uptrend momentum, and the latest earnings call was broadly constructive with improving margins, strong demand indicators (bookings/backlog/RPO), and reiterated guidance, though H2 destocking and execution risks remain.
Positive Factors
Strong backlog / RPO
A record $1.16B remaining performance obligation and 1.4x book-to-bill provide durable multi-quarter revenue visibility. Large RPO smooths near-term cyclicality, supports planned production ramps and investment, and underpins cash flow conversion if the company executes on backlog conversion.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Multi-year negative operating and free cash flow undermines financial flexibility and raises funding risk. Even with quarter-to-date improvements, persistent cash burn can force reliance on credit, constrain investments for ramps, and increase vulnerability to execution delays or higher interest costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong backlog / RPO
A record $1.16B remaining performance obligation and 1.4x book-to-bill provide durable multi-quarter revenue visibility. Large RPO smooths near-term cyclicality, supports planned production ramps and investment, and underpins cash flow conversion if the company executes on backlog conversion.
Read all positive factors
Ducommun (DCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)316.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth8.57%
EPS Growth-162.23%
CountryUS
Employees2,130
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.81
Shares Outstanding15,099,779
10 Day Avg. Volume322,475
30 Day Avg. Volume316,425
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)2.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.72
P/FCF Ratio-29.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$212.00Price Target Upside19.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$884.00M
Ducommun Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ducommun Incorporated, an established company founded in 1849 and based in Santa Ana, California, specializes in delivering advanced engineering and manufacturing solutions. Primarily, it caters to critical sectors within the United States, such a...
How the Company Makes Money
Ducommun makes money by manufacturing and selling aerospace and defense components and assemblies, largely as a supplier to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and major prime contractors. Its revenue is primarily generated from (1) Electronic...
Ducommun Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial picture: record revenue, strong bookings and backlog growth, significant margin expansion, notable missile and commercial aerospace recoveries, meaningful cash generation and realized cost synergies. The company also flagged temporary and manageable headwinds — ongoing destocking effects, some subsegment softness (radar/space/naval/business jet), revenue pull-forward dynamics, and execution risks around supply chain, hiring, and realizing share of prime defense awards. Overall, the positive metrics, sizable backlog/RPO growth, margin trajectory and preparedness for defense program ramps outweigh the transitory and execution-related lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Consistent Growth
Revenue reached a new quarterly record of $225.0 million (management also cited $224 million in remarks), up 12% year-over-year. This was the 5th consecutive quarter above $200 million and the 20th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth.
Negative Updates
Destocking Headwinds and H2 Growth Moderation
Management expects destocking in commercial aerospace to remain a headwind through the end of 2026 (though improving), leading to more muted growth in the second half and guidance for low- to mid-single-digit revenue growth in Q3 and Q4 despite full-year mid-to-high single-digit guidance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Consistent Growth
Revenue reached a new quarterly record of $225.0 million (management also cited $224 million in remarks), up 12% year-over-year. This was the 5th consecutive quarter above $200 million and the 20th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of mid‑to‑high single‑digit growth, cautioned that some destocking headwinds may persist through year‑end, and said Q3 and Q4 should show low‑to‑mid single‑digit growth as H1 pull‑forward production unwinds; they also reaffirmed VISION 2027 targets including 18% adjusted EBITDA in 2027 (Q2 adjusted EBITDA was 17.1% or $38.4M, up $6.7M YoY). Q2 metrics cited to support the guidance included revenue of ~$224–225M (+12% YoY), gross profit $62.9M or 28% (+160 bps YoY), adjusted operating income $26.7M or 11.9%, GAAP net income $20.4M / GAAP EPS $1.31 (adjusted net income $18.4M / adjusted EPS $1.18), record remaining performance obligations of $1.16B (+$250M YoY) with a 1.4x quarterly book‑to‑bill (1.3x LTM), $310M bookings in Q2 and $1.1B booked over the past 12 months, missile revenues +68% in Q2 (29% LTM), commercial aerospace +16% Q2, facility consolidation run‑rate savings of ~$13M largely realized, available liquidity $410M, Q2 cash from operations $33.5M (YTD cash flow $44.8M) and YTD free cash flow $38.3M (127% conversion).Ducommun Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 863.21M | 824.84M | 786.55M | 756.99M | 712.54M | 645.41M |
| Gross Profit | 234.85M | 221.62M | 197.26M | 163.19M | 144.30M | 142.46M |
| EBITDA | 5.87M | -913.00K | 85.65M | 69.72M | 76.31M | 210.06M |
| Net Income | -24.81M | -37.35M | 31.50M | 15.93M | 28.79M | 135.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.22B | 1.19B | 1.13B | 1.12B | 1.02B | 978.74M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.80M | 45.29M | 37.14M | 42.86M | 46.25M | 76.32M |
| Total Debt | 335.87M | 345.83M | 272.14M | 295.59M | 282.84M | 320.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 534.12M | 524.12M | 443.57M | 484.82M | 495.55M | 504.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 690.44M | 662.11M | 682.53M | 636.09M | 525.96M | 474.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -24.47M | -48.64M | 20.05M | 11.54M | 12.99M | -17.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -11.80M | -33.41M | 34.18M | 31.07M | 32.68M | -565.00K |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.54M | -13.12M | -13.91M | -133.50M | -19.24M | 57.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 27.02M | 54.68M | -26.00M | 99.05M | -43.51M | -37.34M |
Ducommun Technical Analysis
Neutral
177.44
Price Trends
180.26
Positive
161.39
Positive
135.01
Positive
Market Momentum
5.93
Positive
51.92
Neutral
21.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DCO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 177.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 192.41, below the 50-day MA of 180.26, and above the 200-day MA of 135.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DCO.
Ducommun Risk Analysis
Ducommun disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ducommun reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ducommun Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $5.33B | 27.63 | 12.19% | ― | 18.97% | 1317.49% | |
76 Outperform | $3.27B | 38.24 | 51.97% | ― | 14.49% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $260.02M | -10.30 | -3.48% | ― | ― | ― | |
60 Neutral | $2.86B | -105.88 | -3.72% | ― | 8.57% | -162.23% | |
59 Neutral | $5.67B | -180.98 | -2.01% | ― | 7.85% | 22.99% |
* Industrials Sector Average
DCO
Ducommun
191.65
97.75
104.10%
AIR
AAR
134.82
59.73
79.54%
ATRO
Astronics
78.00
48.93
168.34%
MRCY
Mercury Systems
91.36
23.38
34.39%
AIRO
Airo Group Holdings, Inc.
8.60
-14.64
-62.99%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.