Ducommun (DCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.58B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 96.88K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: 3.16%
• EPS Growth: -213.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,180
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 0.99
• Shares Outstanding: 14,946,052
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 90,656
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 96,879
• PEG Ratio: 0.36
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 46.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.48K
• 1Y Price Target: $111.80
• Price Target Upside: 5.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $113.00 ▲(7.03% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (better margins/leverage and improved free cash flow, but ongoing losses and weak operating profitability). Technicals are supportive with strong trend strength, though momentum is stretched. Earnings-call fundamentals were strong (record revenue, defense-driven growth, and robust bookings/backlog), but valuation is penalized by a negative P/E and no dividend support; recent events are slightly positive overall due to improved financing flexibility despite legal settlement costs.

Positive Factors

Defense Segment Growth

Sustained double-digit defense growth reflects durable demand from military programs and higher-margin product mix (missiles, fixed/rotary-wing). Defense exposure reduces cyclicality versus commercial aerospace and supports steadier revenue and margin profile over coming quarters.

Strong Bookings and Backlog

A 1.6x book-to-bill and record $1.03B RPO provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and production cadence predictability. High backlog de-risks near-term growth, aids capacity planning, and supports smoother revenue recognition and investment decisions over the 2-6 month horizon.

Enhanced Liquidity and Capital Flexibility

Extended revolver and term loan through 2030 materially improve liquidity and reduce near-term refinancing risk. This capital flexibility supports strategic M&A, VISION 2027 execution, and provides a buffer for working capital or cyclical troughs without pressuring the balance sheet.

Negative Factors

Negative Operating Profitability

A negative EBIT margin signals persistent operating inefficiencies despite gross margin gains. Ongoing operating losses limit retained earnings for reinvestment, reduce resilience to demand shocks, and may require sustained margin improvement efforts to restore durable profitability.

Weak Cash Conversion

Low conversion of accounting income into cash indicates working capital or timing issues that constrain internal funding for capex and growth. Reliance on cash generation is impaired, raising dependence on external liquidity even with improved credit capacity.

Commercial Aerospace Headwinds

A 10% commercial revenue decline from destocking shows exposure to airline and OEM cycle risk. Recovery hinges on OEM production resumption (e.g., Boeing rates); prolonged destocking would pressure utilization, mix and margins, limiting overall revenue diversification near term.

Ducommun Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ducommun Incorporated provides engineering and manufacturing products and services primarily to the aerospace and defense, industrial, medical, and other industries in the United States. It operates through two segments, Electronic Systems and Structural Systems. The Electronic Systems segment provides cable assemblies and interconnect systems; printed circuit board assemblies; higher-level electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical components and assemblies, as well as lightning diversion systems; and radar enclosures, aircraft avionics racks, shipboard communications and control enclosures, shipboard communications and control enclosures, printed circuit board assemblies, cable assemblies, wire harnesses, interconnect systems, lightning diversion strips, surge suppressors, conformal shields, and other assemblies. It also supplies engineered products, including illuminated pushbutton switches and panels for aviation and test systems; microwave and millimeter switches and filters for radio frequency systems and test instrumentation; and motors and resolvers for motion control. In addition, this segment provides engineering expertise for aerospace system design, development, integration, and testing. The Structural Systems segment designs, engineers, and manufactures contoured aluminum, titanium, and Inconel aero structure components; structural assembly products, such as winglets, engine components, and fuselage structural panels; and metal and composite bonded structures and assemblies comprising aircraft wing spoilers, large fuselage skins, rotor blades on rotary-wing aircraft and components, flight control surfaces, engine components, ammunition handling systems, and magnetic seals. It serves commercial aircraft, military fixed-wing aircraft, military and commercial rotary-wing aircraft, and space programs, as well as industrial, medical, and other end-use markets. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Santa Ana, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Ducommun generates revenue primarily through the sale of its aerospace and defense-related products and services. The company's revenue model is based on long-term contracts and relationships with key customers, which include prominent aerospace and defense manufacturers. Key revenue streams include the manufacturing of precision components, assembly services, and engineering solutions. The company also benefits from the growing demand for advanced aerospace technologies and increased defense spending, which contribute to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with major defense contractors and ongoing investments in research and development further enhance Ducommun’s competitive position and revenue potential.

Ducommun Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ducommun's financial performance shows stability in its balance sheet with improved leverage and cash generation. However, profitability remains a concern due to a negative net income and operational challenges, as indicated by a negative EBIT margin.

Income Statement

Ducommun's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a slight improvement in gross profit margin to 25.71% from 25.08% in 2024, suggesting better cost management. However, the company reported a negative EBIT margin of -4.37% and a net loss, indicating operational challenges. Revenue growth is positive at 1.40% TTM, but the negative net profit margin highlights profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36 in TTM, showing a decrease from 0.39 in 2024, indicating improved leverage. Return on equity is modest at 5.82%, suggesting moderate profitability. The equity ratio remains strong, indicating a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a 9.99% growth in free cash flow TTM, indicating improved cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.30, suggesting potential challenges in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.73 shows a decent cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	806.22M	786.55M	756.99M	712.54M	645.41M	628.94M
Gross Profit	208.22M	197.26M	163.19M	144.30M	142.46M	137.74M
EBITDA	-653.00K	85.65M	69.72M	76.31M	210.06M	74.48M
Net Income	-34.61M	31.50M	15.93M	28.79M	135.54M	29.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.25B	1.13B	1.12B	1.02B	978.74M	837.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	50.92M	37.14M	42.86M	46.25M	76.32M	56.47M
Total Debt	271.47M	272.14M	295.59M	282.84M	320.59M	336.61M
Total Liabilities	599.52M	443.57M	484.82M	495.55M	504.13M	508.01M
Stockholders Equity	649.04M	682.53M	636.09M	525.96M	474.60M	329.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	44.69M	20.05M	11.54M	12.99M	-17.43M	101.00K
Operating Cash Flow	59.71M	34.18M	31.07M	32.68M	-565.00K	12.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.68M	-13.91M	-133.50M	-19.24M	57.75M	-5.47M
Financing Cash Flow	-33.37M	-26.00M	99.05M	-43.51M	-37.34M	9.74M

Ducommun Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 105.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 105.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 96.35, above the 50-day MA of 93.08, and above the 200-day MA of 83.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.88 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DCO.

Ducommun Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DCO	65 Neutral	$1.58B	-45.19	-5.27%	―	3.16%	-213.56%
ATRO	65 Neutral	$2.31B	―	-1.72%	―	6.19%	52.10%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AIR	60 Neutral	$3.75B	36.86	6.86%	―	17.59%	-56.15%
MRCY	57 Neutral	$5.33B	―	-2.24%	―	8.63%	72.72%
AIRO	56 Neutral	$374.08M	-141.25	―	―	―	―

Ducommun Corporate Events

Ducommun Settles Guaymas Fire Subrogation Claim for $4M

On January 7, 2026, Ducommun Incorporated entered into a confidential settlement agreement to resolve a previously disclosed subrogation claim arising from a June 2020 fire at its performance center in Guaymas, Mexico, which had been pursued in an Arizona arbitration by the insurer of the entity providing labor and facilities for that site after payments to customer Williams International Co., LLC. Following a December 9, 2025 mediation, the parties agreed to dismiss the arbitration with prejudice and mutually release all past, present and future claims related to the fire in exchange for a $4 million payment by Ducommun, which the company plans to expense in the quarter ended December 31, 2025 and fund from existing cash, while denying any admission of liability and stating it believes no material claims remain outstanding from the incident aside from a potential Mexican insurer claim it considers time-barred.

The most recent analyst rating on (DCO) stock is a Buy with a $124.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ducommun stock, see the DCO Stock Forecast page.

Ducommun Enhances Liquidity with Amended Credit Facility

On November 24, 2025, Ducommun Incorporated amended its credit facility to include a $450 million revolving line of credit and a $200 million term loan, maturing in November 2030. This strategic move aims to enhance liquidity, reduce capital costs, and extend the maturity profile, providing Ducommun with greater financial flexibility to pursue acquisition opportunities and support its VISION 2027 strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (DCO) stock is a Hold with a $93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ducommun stock, see the DCO Stock Forecast page.