Diebold Nixdorf Inc (DBD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.48B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 202.07K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 50.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: -2.86%
• EPS Growth: 985.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 1.39
• Shares Outstanding: 35,867,157
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 262,024
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 202,068
• PEG Ratio: 0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.38
• 1Y Price Target: $80.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $73.00 ▲(5.78% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (strong cash flow and recovery trends) and supportive technicals (price above key moving averages). These positives are partially offset by a demanding valuation (high P/E and no dividend yield provided), while the latest earnings call adds support through upbeat guidance, continued free-cash-flow momentum, and shareholder returns despite some margin and regional headwinds.

Positive Factors

Strengthened cash generation

Consistent positive free cash flow across four consecutive quarters and solid operating cash flow improve the company’s ability to self-fund investments, pay down debt, and return capital. This durable cash generation underpins the $200M repurchase and targets like $800M cumulative FCF to 2027.

Improved balance sheet and leverage

Leverage moving below equity and positive shareholders' equity materially reduces refinancing and solvency risk versus recent years. The balance sheet repair, coupled with a credit rating upgrade, enhances funding flexibility for capex, M&A, or shareholder returns over the medium term.

Strong order backlog and product demand

Meaningful YoY product order growth and a near‑$1B backlog provide multi‑quarter revenue visibility and demonstrate durable customer demand. Combined with retail segment strength and strategic partnerships, this supports recurring service contracts and scalable deployments of ATMs and retail checkouts.

Negative Factors

Thin and volatile profitability

Sub-2% net margins and a history of swings between losses and one-off profits reduce cash cushion and make earnings vulnerable to small revenue or cost changes. This undermines durable free cash flow predictability and increases execution risk for medium-term targets.

Sizable absolute debt burden

Even with improved debt ratios, an absolute debt load above $1B keeps interest and refinancing exposure material. Servicing this debt limits discretionary capital for R&D, service investments or acquisitions and leaves the company sensitive to higher rates or economic slowdowns over coming quarters.

Service margin pressure and regional weakness

Declining service gross margins driven by accelerated investments in field software and technicians erode the stable recurring-profit engine. Coupled with persistent regional headwinds in Latin America, this can compress long-term service profitability and reduce the resiliency of recurring revenue streams.

Diebold Nixdorf Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated engages in the automating, digitizing, and transforming the way people bank and shop worldwide. It operates through two segments, Banking and Retail. The company offers cash recyclers and dispensers, intelligent deposit terminals, teller automation tools, and kiosk technologies, as well as physical security solutions; and front-end applications for consumer connection points and back-end platforms that manage channel transactions, operations and integration, and facilitate omnichannel transactions, endpoint monitoring, remote asset management, customer marketing, merchandise management, and analytics. It also provides banking product-related services comprising proactive monitoring and rapid resolution of incidents through remote service capabilities or an on-site visit; first- and second-line maintenance, preventive maintenance, and on-demand services; managed and outsourcing services, such as business processes, solution management, upgrades, and transaction processing; and cash management services. In addition, the company offers DN Vynamic software suite to simplify and enhance the consumer experience; mobile point of sale and self-checkout terminals; printers, scales, and mobile scanners; and banknote and coin processing systems. Additionally, it provides retail customer's product-related services, such as on-demand and professional services; maintenance and availability services; implementation services; managed mobility services; monitoring and advanced analytics; and store life-cycle management services. The company was formerly known as Diebold, Incorporated and changed its name to Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated in December 2016. Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Hudson, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Diebold Nixdorf generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from the sale of automated teller machines (ATMs) and point-of-sale (POS) systems, alongside associated software solutions. The company also earns significant income from ongoing service contracts, which include maintenance, software updates, and technical support for their products. Additionally, Diebold Nixdorf engages in partnerships with financial institutions and retail companies, allowing them to expand their market reach and enhance product offerings. These partnerships often lead to recurring revenue through service agreements and upgrades, contributing to the company's overall financial performance.

Diebold Nixdorf Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operational recovery is evident with strong TTM revenue growth, improved profitability, healthier leverage versus prior years, and solid operating/free cash flow. The score is held back by thin net margins, sizable absolute debt, and a history of volatile profitability and free cash flow that reduces confidence in durability.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded sharply (+49.3%), and profitability improved versus recent history with positive EBIT and net income. However, overall profitability remains thin (about 1.4% net margin) and the multi-year pattern shows meaningful volatility (losses in 2024/2022 and an outsized profit in 2023 that looks non-recurring), which lowers confidence in the durability of earnings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks more controlled in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with debt below equity (debt-to-equity ~0.84) and equity now positive, marking a clear improvement from 2020–2022 when equity was negative and leverage was structurally high. That said, total debt remains sizable (~$1.07B), and returns on equity are modest (~4.9% in TTM), suggesting the balance sheet is healthier but still not a clear strength.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with solid operating cash flow (~$279M) and free cash flow (~$230M), and free cash flow improved year-over-year. The main weakness is that cash conversion versus accounting earnings is not especially strong (free cash flow is slightly below net income), and the company has a history of negative free cash flow (notably 2022–2023), indicating some cyclicality and execution risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.69B	3.75B	3.76B	3.46B	3.91B	3.90B
Gross Profit	920.70M	920.00M	876.20M	757.30M	1.04B	1.03B
EBITDA	355.40M	334.90M	275.00M	-113.40M	293.70M	177.70M
Net Income	50.60M	-16.50M	1.38B	-581.40M	-78.80M	-269.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.72B	3.54B	4.16B	3.06B	3.51B	3.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	280.00M	313.10M	563.60M	332.00M	423.20M	361.70M
Total Debt	1.07B	1.05B	1.36B	2.73B	2.45B	2.50B
Total Liabilities	2.61B	2.61B	3.08B	4.44B	4.34B	4.47B
Stockholders Equity	1.11B	929.80M	1.06B	-1.38B	-845.10M	-827.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	229.50M	131.80M	-281.90M	-441.00M	72.00M	-26.70M
Operating Cash Flow	279.40M	149.20M	-257.00M	-387.90M	123.30M	18.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-76.30M	-45.50M	-36.10M	-23.80M	-36.50M	-82.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-280.20M	-366.50M	559.50M	349.80M	-16.30M	16.90M

Diebold Nixdorf Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 69.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.62, above the 50-day MA of 67.04, and above the 200-day MA of 58.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DBD.

Diebold Nixdorf Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CXM	77 Outperform	$1.57B	15.08	21.35%	―	6.48%	168.94%
NATL	69 Neutral	$2.76B	22.76	41.41%	―	-0.14%	―
PDFS	67 Neutral	$1.26B	-16,763.16	-0.02%	―	21.23%	-101.40%
DBD	64 Neutral	$2.48B	50.58	4.66%	―	-2.86%	985.78%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SPT	61 Neutral	$535.84M	-11.19	-26.69%	―	13.09%	32.34%
DOMO	44 Neutral	$245.36M	-3.41	―	―	-0.14%	21.60%