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Diebold Nixdorf Inc (DBD)
NYSE:DBD
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Diebold Nixdorf Inc
(NYSE:DBD)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$81.00
▼(-0.30% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profitability, stronger free cash flow, and deleveraging) and supportive technical momentum. These positives are moderated by a high P/E valuation and residual earnings/cash-flow volatility (including nonrecurring EPS benefits noted on the earnings call).
Positive Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow
Sustained, materially stronger free cash flow provides durable capacity to pay down debt, fund strategic R&D and service investments, and support buybacks. That cash conversion underpins balance-sheet repair and long-term financial flexibility even if cyclical demand softens.
Margin Expansion and Profitability
Meaningful gross- and operating-margin improvement reflects better product mix, higher-capacity recycler adoption and operating leverage. Structural margin gains support sustainable earnings power and reinvestment capacity across banking and retail product lines.
Improving Leverage & Liquidity
Marked deleveraging and ample liquidity improve resilience to shocks, lower refinancing risk and enable strategic actions (M&A, capex, buybacks). A stronger balance sheet and credit upgrade expand optionality and reduce structural financial constraints over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Historical Earnings/Cash Volatility
A history of volatile earnings and cash flow limits predictability; nonrecurring benefits have affected reported EPS. This makes forecasting durable free cash flow and margins harder and raises the risk that cyclical or working-capital swings could reverse recent gains.
Backlog/Seasonality Dependence
Significant reliance on backlog conversion and a lumpy seasonal cadence concentrates execution risk: timing or scope slips materially affect near-term revenue and cash flow, and persistent conversion delays would erode the sustainability of the current growth trajectory.
Service Margin Pressure & Disruptions
Ongoing investments and recent retail service disruptions can depress high-frequency, recurring service margins. Because services are a core recurring revenue source, prolonged margin pressure would reduce durable profitability and weaken long-term cash-generation consistency.
Diebold Nixdorf Inc (DBD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.84B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)202.07K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.4
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth-2.86%
EPS Growth985.78%
CountryUS
Employees21,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.02
Shares Outstanding35,173,040
10 Day Avg. Volume262,024
30 Day Avg. Volume202,068
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.27
Price to Sales (P/S)0.66
P/FCF Ratio9.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$100.00Price Target Upside23.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Diebold Nixdorf Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionDiebold Nixdorf, Incorporated engages in the automating, digitizing, and transforming the way people bank and shop worldwide. It operates through two segments, Banking and Retail. The company offers cash recyclers and dispensers, intelligent deposit terminals, teller automation tools, and kiosk technologies, as well as physical security solutions; and front-end applications for consumer connection points and back-end platforms that manage channel transactions, operations and integration, and facilitate omnichannel transactions, endpoint monitoring, remote asset management, customer marketing, merchandise management, and analytics. It also provides banking product-related services comprising proactive monitoring and rapid resolution of incidents through remote service capabilities or an on-site visit; first- and second-line maintenance, preventive maintenance, and on-demand services; managed and outsourcing services, such as business processes, solution management, upgrades, and transaction processing; and cash management services. In addition, the company offers DN Vynamic software suite to simplify and enhance the consumer experience; mobile point of sale and self-checkout terminals; printers, scales, and mobile scanners; and banknote and coin processing systems. Additionally, it provides retail customer's product-related services, such as on-demand and professional services; maintenance and availability services; implementation services; managed mobility services; monitoring and advanced analytics; and store life-cycle management services. The company was formerly known as Diebold, Incorporated and changed its name to Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated in December 2016. Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Hudson, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyDiebold Nixdorf generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from the sale of automated teller machines (ATMs) and point-of-sale (POS) systems, alongside associated software solutions. The company also earns significant income from ongoing service contracts, which include maintenance, software updates, and technical support for their products. Additionally, Diebold Nixdorf engages in partnerships with financial institutions and retail companies, allowing them to expand their market reach and enhance product offerings. These partnerships often lead to recurring revenue through service agreements and upgrades, contributing to the company's overall financial performance.
Diebold Nixdorf Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strong, improving financial and operational trajectory: record free cash flow, meaningful margin expansion, robust adjusted EBITDA, solid revenue and order growth, structural Lean-driven efficiencies, improved liquidity and credit ratings, and raised 2026 guidance. Noted challenges were localized (retail service disruptions, regional lumpiness, near-term service investment drag) and partially transitory, while management provided plans and guidance to drive further improvements. Overall, positive momentum and balance sheet strength significantly outweigh the cited headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Free Cash Flow and Conversion
Generated a record $239,000,000 of free cash flow in FY2025, more than doubling 2024's $109,000,000; Q4 FCF was $196,000,000 (up ~5% YoY). FCF conversion ~49%, approaching the 2026 target of >50%.
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Expansion
Full-year adjusted EBITDA expanded to $485,000,000. Q4 adjusted EBITDA reached $164,000,000, up 46% YoY with 350 bps margin improvement; Q4 EBITDA margin 14.9% (up 350 bps YoY, +200 bps sequentially).
Top-Line Growth and Strong Order Momentum
Q4 revenue $1,100,000,000, up 12% YoY and 17% sequentially. Order entry grew 17% YoY and product backlog stood at $733,000,000. 2026 revenue guidance: $3.86–$3.94 billion.
Banking Business Strength (ATM/Recyclers)
Banking Q4 revenue up 11% YoY (full year +1.2%). Banking product revenue grew 20% YoY in Q4. Banking gross margin expanded ~410 bps YoY in Q4 driven by high-capacity recycler adoption and improved product margins.
Retail Momentum and AI-led Wins
Retail Q4 revenue increased 12% YoY to over $300,000,000; retail product revenue +16% YoY in Q4 and full-year retail revenue +2.1%. Secured nine new U.S. logos, including grocery and QSR wins; SmartVision AI moved from pilot to multiple live store implementations.
Gross Margin and Operating Profit Improvement
Q4 total gross margin expanded to 27.1% (up 320 bps YoY). Full-year gross margin 26.4% (up 110 bps YoY). Q4 operating profit $129,000,000 (up 81% YoY) and operating margin 11.6% (up 440 bps YoY).
Lean and Working Capital Improvements
Lean initiatives produced structural benefits: dynamic Kanban achieved ~30% sustained inventory reduction for >400 items; order processing time improved ~17%; DIO improved ~9 days YoY; DSO improved ~4 days to ~50 days; product lead times reduced to ~70–80 days from 120+ days.
Balance Sheet Strength and Capital Returns
Liquidity >$700,000,000 (including $416,000,000 cash & short-term investments and an undrawn $310,000,000 revolver); net debt leverage ~1.1x. Returned $128,000,000 to shareholders in 2025 (~2.3M shares, ~6% of company) and announced a new $200,000,000 repurchase authorization. Moody's upgraded rating to B1 (from B2).
Forward Guidance and Outlook
2026 guidance raised vs Investor Day targets: revenue $3.86–$3.94B; adjusted EBITDA $510–$535M (~8% growth at midpoint); free cash flow $255–$270M (~10% growth at midpoint); adjusted EPS guidance $5.25–$5.75 (midpoint implies ~22% YoY growth on a comparable basis excluding certain 2025 tax items).
Negative Updates
Retail Service Disruptions Impacting Full-Year Margins
Certain large retail customers experienced external cyber-related disruptions that reduced service delivery; full-year retail gross margins declined ~20 bps and retail services revenue was roughly flat year-over-year as a result (service has since resumed).
Regional Lumpiness — Latin America and Asia Considerations
Latin America experienced a slower, lumpier 2025 with timing variability on big projects. Asia fit-for-purpose expansion can be lower-margin, creating some mix pressure despite positive unit demand and new certifications (e.g., India public bank certification).
Near-Term Service Margin Pressure from Investments
Company is continuing investments in field service software rollout and hiring technicians; management expects a slight service margin decrease into Q1 before improvements materialize, and FY2025 operating expense rose ~3.7% (driven by labor and benefits).
EPS Benefited from Nonrecurring Tax Items
Reported FY2025 adjusted EPS was $5.59 but included ~$1.08 of noncash, nonoperational favorable items (tax valuation allowance release $0.57 in Q4 and a $0.51 benefit in Q3 from German rate change). Excluding these, FY2025 EPS was $4.51 — signaling portion of EPS gain is nonrecurring.
Seasonality/Cadence and Dependence on Backlog Conversion
Management expects a similar 45% H1 / 55% H2 revenue cadence as 2025 with Q1 ~22% of annual revenue; performance depends on converting a $733,000,000 backlog and continued strong order entry — seasonality or execution slips could affect near-term results.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenue of $3.86–$3.94 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $510–$535 million (≈+8% at the midpoint), free cash flow of $255–$270 million (≈+10% at the midpoint) and adjusted EPS of $5.25–$5.75 assuming a 35–40% effective tax rate, with total gross margin expected to expand 25–50 basis points year‑over‑year. They cited a $733 million product backlog and strong January order entry, expect a revenue cadence similar to 2025 (~45% H1 / 55% H2 with Q1 ≈22% of revenue) and an adjusted EBITDA split of roughly 40% H1 / ~61% H2, plan to generate positive free cash flow every quarter, intend to realize up to half of $50 million of annualized OPEX savings in 2026 (reducing OPEX ~1–2%), and enter the year with ~1.1x net leverage and more than $700 million of liquidity.Diebold Nixdorf Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are improving with stronger 2025 profitability and sharply better operating/free cash flow, alongside a clear deleveraging trend. However, multi-year volatility (losses in 2022, negative cash flow in 2022–2023, and uneven net income with some non-recurring impacts) keeps overall quality and predictability mid-range.Income Statement
Profitability has improved meaningfully into 2025, with revenue up ~3.1% and net income turning positive (~2.5% net margin) after a small loss in 2024. Operating performance is also firmer (EBIT margin ~6.4% and EBITDA margin ~9.7% in 2025), showing better cost control versus prior years. The key weakness is inconsistency: 2022 was deeply unprofitable and 2023’s unusually high net margin suggests results were influenced by non-recurring items, making the earnings trajectory less predictable despite the recent step-up.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is improving, with total debt down to ~$0.94B in 2025 from ~$1.36B in 2023 and the debt-to-equity ratio falling to ~0.85 (from >1.1 in 2024). Equity has recovered to a positive ~$1.10B (after being negative in 2020–2022), and return on equity is positive again (~8.6% in 2025). Still, the balance sheet has a history of stress (negative equity previously and higher leverage), so while the direction is constructive, durability through a downturn remains a watch item.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation strengthened sharply in 2025, with operating cash flow of ~$301M and free cash flow of ~$263M (free cash flow up ~14.7% year over year). Free cash flow is substantial relative to reported earnings (free cash flow is ~0.88x net income), supporting debt reduction and reinvestment capacity. The main concern is volatility: cash flow was negative in 2022–2023, indicating the business can swing materially depending on operating conditions and working-capital dynamics.67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.81B | 3.75B | 3.76B | 3.46B | 3.91B |
| Gross Profit | 961.20M | 920.00M | 876.20M | 757.30M | 1.04B |
| EBITDA | 369.50M | 334.90M | 275.00M | -113.40M | 293.70M |
| Net Income | 94.60M | -16.50M | 1.38B | -581.40M | -78.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.85B | 3.54B | 4.16B | 3.06B | 3.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 416.40M | 313.10M | 563.60M | 332.00M | 423.20M |
| Total Debt | 1.17B | 1.05B | 1.36B | 2.73B | 2.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.75B | 2.61B | 3.08B | 4.44B | 4.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.10B | 929.80M | 1.06B | -1.38B | -845.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 263.30M | 131.80M | -281.90M | -441.00M | 72.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 300.70M | 149.20M | -257.00M | -387.90M | 123.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.60M | -45.50M | -36.10M | -23.80M | -36.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -143.90M | -366.50M | 559.50M | 349.80M | -16.30M |
Diebold Nixdorf Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
81.24
Price Trends
70.13
Positive
65.33
Positive
60.52
Positive
Market Momentum
3.30
Negative
72.12
Negative
76.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DBD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 81.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.20, above the 50-day MA of 70.13, and above the 200-day MA of 60.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.12 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DBD.
Diebold Nixdorf Inc Risk Analysis
Diebold Nixdorf Inc disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Diebold Nixdorf Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Diebold Nixdorf Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.37B | 13.24 | 21.35% | ― | 6.48% | 168.94% | |
69 Neutral | $3.10B | 25.77 | 41.41% | ― | -0.14% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.31B | -1,919.53 | -0.25% | ― | 21.23% | -101.40% | |
65 Neutral | $2.84B | 31.40 | 4.66% | ― | -2.86% | 985.78% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $428.68M | -8.99 | -26.69% | ― | 13.09% | 32.34% | |
45 Neutral | $163.01M | -2.15 | ― | ― | -0.14% | 21.60% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.