NCR Atleos, LLC (NATL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.54B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 756.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: -0.14%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 1.49
• Shares Outstanding: 73,667,620
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,521,777
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 756,761
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.07
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.82
• 1Y Price Target: $50.27
• Price Target Upside: 6.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.81
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.54B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $53.00 ▲(12.19% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance and durable cash generation, supported by strong technical momentum. Valuation is reasonable but not particularly cheap at ~21x earnings and lacks dividend support. Earnings call commentary adds a positive tilt via reaffirmed guidance, margin expansion, and expected free-cash-flow conversion improvement, balanced by tariff and network-transaction headwinds.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Consistent operating cash flow in the mid-$300M range and FCF of $239M in 2025 provide durable funding for capital needs, debt reduction, and service-led growth. Reliable cash conversion supports strategic investments in ATMaaS and software, reducing reliance on external financing over multiple years.

Shift to recurring ATMaaS revenue

Rapid ATM-as-a-Service growth and expanding ARR transition revenue mix toward higher-margin, contractually recurring flows. This structural shift increases revenue visibility, improves lifetime customer economics, and supports multi-year service revenue compounding even if transaction volumes fluctuate.

Completed separation from legacy NCR

Finishing the IT and legal separation from legacy NCR removes legacy operational constraints and reduces integration drag. Independent systems and legal entities improve agility for contracts, product development, and targeted cost control, supporting clearer strategic execution over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Historic leverage risk

Although leverage materially improved to a lower 2025 level, the company’s equity cushion remains thin after prior extreme leverage. This legacy balance-sheet sensitivity reduces resilience to demand shocks, constrains capital allocation flexibility, and raises refinancing and covenant risk if cash generation weakens.

Network segment exposure

Network revenues remain exposed to policy and macro shifts (prepaid payroll-card declines) and to hardware tariff cost pressure. Such structural sensitivities can compress margins and slow revenue growth in the network business, limiting the predictability of what has historically been a core volume-driven segment.

Thin margins & volatile growth

Net margins remain thin despite margin improvements, and revenue has been only steady to modestly rising with past volatility (loss in 2023). Limited margin buffer and inconsistent top-line expansion constrain reinvestment capacity and increase sensitivity to cost shocks or slower adoption of higher-margin services.

NCR Atleos, LLC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NCR Atleos Corporation, a financial technology company, provides self-directed banking solutions to financial institutions, merchants, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers in the United States, rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Self-Service Banking; Network; and Telecommunications & Technology (T&T). The company offers solutions, including a line of automated teller machine (ATM) hardware and software, as well as elated installation, maintenance, and managed and professional services; and ATM as a service to manage and run for financial institutions that include back office, cash management, software management, and ATM deployment. It also provides network of ATMs and multi-functioning financial services kiosks for financial institutions, financial technology companies, neobanks, and retailers; Allpoint network which provides cash withdrawal and deposit access to credit unions, banks, digital banks, fintechs, stored-value debit card issuers, and other consumer financial services providers; and ATM branding solutions to financial institutions, ATM management and services to retailers and other businesses, and LibertyX solution which gives consumers the ability to buy and sell Bitcoin. In addition, the company offers managed network and infrastructure services to enterprise clients across various industries through communications service providers and technology manufacturers; and professional, field, and remote services for modern network technologies, including software-defined wide area networking, network functions virtualization, wireless local area networks, optical networking, and edge networks. NCR Atleos Corporation was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

NCR Atleos, LLC generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering subscription-based services that include cloud solutions for data analytics and payment processing. These services are designed to provide businesses with insights and tools necessary for effective decision-making. Key revenue streams include recurring subscription fees from clients utilizing their cloud-based platforms, transaction fees from payment processing services, and revenue from professional services such as consulting and system integration. Additionally, partnerships with major retail and hospitality brands enhance NATL's market reach, allowing for increased customer acquisition and retention, which further contributes to its overall earnings.

NCR Atleos, LLC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Improving fundamentals with steady-to-modestly rising revenue and a strong profitability rebound (loss in 2023 to $91M net income in 2024 and $162M in 2025). Cash generation is consistently solid (mid-$300M operating cash flow; $239M free cash flow in 2025). The main constraint is balance-sheet risk: leverage improved materially in 2025, but prior years’ extreme leverage and a thin margin profile increase sensitivity if conditions weaken.

Income Statement

Revenue has been steady to modestly rising from 2023–2025 (2025 up slightly vs. 2024), and profitability improved meaningfully with net income rebounding from a loss in 2023 to $91M in 2024 and $162M in 2025. Gross margin also trended up (about 22% in 2022–2023 to ~24% in 2024–2025), supporting earnings resilience. Offsetting this, net margins remain thin (~3.7% in 2025) and results show some volatility (notably the 2023 loss), which limits the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears improved in 2025, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.56 versus very elevated levels in 2023–2024 (around 11x), which is a major positive shift for financial risk. Total assets have been relatively stable, and return on equity is high in 2024–2025, reflecting improved profitability on a relatively small equity base. The key weakness is the historical balance-sheet risk signaled by the prior two years’ extreme leverage and low equity cushion, which increases sensitivity if operating conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and consistent: operating cash flow has held in the mid-$300M range in 2023–2025, and free cash flow improved to $239M in 2025. Free cash flow also covers a majority of net income (about 67% in 2025), indicating earnings are translating reasonably well into cash. The main negatives are year-to-year free-cash-flow volatility (down in 2024 before rebounding in 2025) and only moderate cash coverage versus the company’s overall capital base, suggesting limited room for error if cash needs rise.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.35B	4.32B	4.19B	4.13B	3.55B
Gross Profit	1.06B	1.03B	933.00M	919.00M	892.00M
EBITDA	736.00M	449.00M	451.00M	447.00M	459.00M
Net Income	162.00M	91.00M	-134.00M	108.00M	186.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.67B	5.55B	5.74B	5.77B	5.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	456.00M	419.00M	339.00M	293.00M	238.00M
Total Debt	225.00M	3.05B	3.12B	884.00M	1.46B
Total Liabilities	5.27B	5.29B	5.45B	2.51B	3.24B
Stockholders Equity	403.00M	260.00M	284.00M	3.26B	2.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	239.00M	205.00M	223.00M	177.00M	338.00M
Operating Cash Flow	356.00M	344.00M	355.00M	274.00M	449.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-116.00M	-135.00M	-316.00M	-417.00M	-2.49B
Financing Cash Flow	-253.00M	-134.00M	31.00M	183.00M	2.35B

NCR Atleos, LLC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 47.24
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NATL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.12, above the 50-day MA of 39.95, and above the 200-day MA of 35.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.87 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NATL.

NCR Atleos, LLC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NATL	71 Outperform	$3.54B	17.29	54.98%	―	-0.14%	―
AGYS	71 Outperform	$2.25B	83.96	10.68%	―	17.77%	-76.05%
RNG	66 Neutral	$3.35B	57.31	―	―	5.45%	―
ALRM	66 Neutral	$2.45B	19.16	16.84%	―	7.35%	2.44%
DBD	65 Neutral	$2.81B	26.41	9.32%	―	-2.86%	985.78%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
BL	53 Neutral	$2.18B	168.71	6.29%	―	7.36%	-40.62%

NCR Atleos, LLC Corporate Events

Brink’s to Acquire NCR Atleos in $6.6 Billion Merger

On February 26, 2026, NCR Atleos and The Brink’s Company announced a definitive merger agreement under which Brink’s will acquire NCR Atleos in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at about $6.6 billion, including assumed debt. The deal, unanimously approved by both boards and expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, will give NCR Atleos shareholders $30 in cash and 0.1574 Brink’s shares per NATL share, implying a 24% premium to NCR Atleos’ prior-day closing price.

The transaction will create a leading financial technology infrastructure group by combining Brink’s global cash management and route-based logistics with NCR Atleos’ large installed ATM base, software and ATMaaS outsourcing platform. Brink’s expects the combined company to generate roughly $10 billion in annual revenue, deliver at least 35% earnings-per-share accretion and realize about $200 million in annual run-rate cost synergies within three years, while using the enlarged cash flow to deleverage and expand in higher-margin ATM managed services and digital retail solutions.

Under the merger structure, NCR Atleos will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Brink’s through two sequential mergers, and its stock will be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange upon closing. Equity awards held by NCR Atleos employees will largely be converted into Brink’s-based awards on adjusted terms, while outstanding stock options in the money will be cashed out based on the merger consideration, reinforcing alignment between the workforce and the future combined entity.

Completion of the deal remains subject to shareholder approvals at both companies, expiration of antitrust waiting periods, various domestic and foreign regulatory and money-transmitter clearances, and customary conditions around accuracy of representations and the absence of material adverse effects. The merger agreement restricts both sides from soliciting competing bids but permits each board, under defined “superior proposal” or intervening event scenarios, to change its recommendation or terminate the agreement, subject to reciprocal termination fees of $145 million for NCR Atleos and $175 million for Brink’s.

Brink’s has secured $4.5 billion in committed bridge financing to fund the cash component and refinance debt, with plans to use the combined entity’s strong free cash flow to reduce leverage to a targeted 2.0–3.0 times range by the end of 2027. Governance arrangements include retaining Brink’s CEO Mark Eubanks and CFO Kurt McMaken in their roles and adding one mutually agreed independent NCR Atleos director to the Brink’s board, signaling a measured integration of leadership as the company seeks to scale its global ATM and digital retail services footprint.

The most recent analyst rating on (NATL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCR Atleos, LLC stock, see the NATL Stock Forecast page.

NCR Atleos Extends Executive Non-Compete Terms, Adjusts Equity

On December 17, 2025, NCR Atleos Corporation’s Compensation and Human Resource Committee approved a new standalone restrictive covenant agreement for several senior executives, including its CEO, CFO, COO and General Counsel, extending their post-employment non-competition obligations to 24 months to provide stronger and more consistent protection for the company’s trade secrets. The committee also accelerated by roughly two months the vesting date of one-third of the executives’ outstanding time-based 2024 and 2025 restricted stock unit awards to December 19, 2025, while leaving all other terms, including the original one-year post-vesting holding period, unchanged, thereby adjusting executive equity incentives without altering longer-term retention conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (NATL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCR Atleos, LLC stock, see the NATL Stock Forecast page.