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NCR Atleos, LLC (NATL)
NYSE:NATL
US Market

NCR Atleos, LLC (NATL) AI Stock Analysis

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NCR Atleos, LLC

(NYSE:NATL)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(15.22%Upside)
The overall score reflects a company with strong technical momentum and positive earnings call sentiment, which are slightly offset by financial challenges such as high leverage and modest valuation metrics. The stock's future potential is supported by strategic growth in key areas, but caution is advised given the potential financial risks.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow
The potential to triple free cash flow generation is enabled by high-margin ATMaaS and network-driven EBITDA expansion, lower cash interest, and more capex-light deals.
Customer Growth
NATL is seeing 9% withdrawal growth versus the industry's ~1%-2%.
Market Positioning
NATL's market positioning is arguably the strongest of peers and best positioned to capture a demand shift for managed and ATMaaS products.
Negative Factors
Market Valuation
NATL trades at a 10% MC/FCF discount to its closest peers and is expected to trade at a premium given FCF growth and profitability improvement.

NCR Atleos, LLC (NATL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NCR Atleos, LLC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNCR ATMCo, LLC operates as a financial technology company in the United States, rest of Americas, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through three segments: Self-Service Banking, Payments and Network, and Telecommunications and Technology. It provides self-directed banking solutions through automated and interactive teller machine technology, including software, services, hardware, and Allpoint network. The company also offers managed network and infrastructure services to enterprise clients across various industries through direct relationships with communications service providers and technology manufacturers. It serves financial institutions, merchants, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNCR Atleos, LLC generates revenue primarily through the sale and leasing of its self-service technology products such as ATMs and POS systems. Additionally, the company earns income from providing support and maintenance services for its products. NCR Atleos may also engage in partnerships with financial institutions and retail businesses to offer customized solutions, further contributing to its revenue streams. The company leverages recurring revenue models through long-term service contracts and software licensing agreements to maintain steady cash flow.

NCR Atleos, LLC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.24%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call indicated a strong start to 2025 with significant growth in ATM-as-a-Service and improvements in adjusted EBITDA. However, challenges such as hardware revenue timing and declines in U.K. transaction volumes were noted. The company remains optimistic about future growth and cash flow, maintaining its guidance despite uncertainties like tariffs.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
First quarter core revenue was $966 million, adjusted EBITDA grew 9% to $175 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 270 basis points to 17.9%.
ATM-as-a-Service Growth
ATM-as-a-Service revenue grew 24% year-over-year with a 44% increase in unique customer count and a 54% growth in gross profit.
Network Segment Expansion
The Network segment signed 7-Eleven to the Allpoint network, expanding the number of convenient locations for 75 million cardholders.
Positive Cash Flow Outlook
The company expects to generate positive free cash flow in each of the remaining quarters of the year.
Negative Updates
Hardware Revenue Timing
Hardware revenue was down year-over-year in Q1 due to timing, but is expected to post strong growth across the remainder of the year.
U.K. Transaction Volume Decline
Withdrawal transactions in the U.K. were down 6% to 7%, attributed to economic factors and the timing of Easter.
LibertyX Bitcoin Revenue Decline
LibertyX Bitcoin transaction revenue declined due to regulatory changes, impacting top-line growth.
Company Guidance
During the NCR Atleos First Quarter FY '25 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance indicating strong performance and strategic progress. Revenue was reported to be in line with the plan, with growth in strategic areas offsetting declines from non-core segments. The company experienced a 3% increase in margins, fueled by productivity improvements and a favorable revenue mix. Operationally, customer KPIs showed positive trends, maintaining high service levels. For the full year 2025, Atleos reaffirmed its guidance, projecting 3% to 6% core revenue growth, 7% to 10% adjusted EBITDA growth, adjusted EPS between $3.90 and $4.10, and free cash flow ranging from $260 million to $300 million. The company is focused on mitigating the impact of tariffs, which are primarily related to ATM hardware and parts, representing less than 7% of 2024 costs. Additionally, the ATM-as-a-Service business demonstrated robust growth with a 24% revenue increase and a 44% rise in customer count, reflecting strong demand across various geographies.

NCR Atleos, LLC Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NCR Atleos, LLC displays moderate profitability and cash generation, but faces high leverage. Revenue growth is a concern, with a 1.62% decrease. The company needs to improve revenue growth and manage debt to enhance financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The income statement shows a modest level of profitability and growth. The gross profit margin for TTM is 24.04%, indicating decent cost management. The net profit margin is relatively low at 0.82%, reflecting tight profit control. Revenue decreased by 1.62% in TTM compared to the previous annual period, suggesting challenges in revenue growth. The EBIT margin is 11.13%, and EBITDA margin is 17.33%, showing reasonable operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet presents a leveraged position with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 10.98, indicating significant reliance on debt financing. Return on Equity (ROE) is 12.73% for TTM, showing moderate returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low at 4.79%, reflecting a small equity base compared to total assets, highlighting potential risk in stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow statement demonstrates positive cash generation. Operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 9.11, indicating strong cash flow relative to reported earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 4.83, suggesting efficient cash management. Free cash flow decreased by 17.56% in TTM, indicating a decline in cash availability for reinvestment.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.25B4.32B4.19B4.36B3.55B
Gross Profit1.02B1.03B933.00M918.00M892.00M
EBITDA736.00M449.00M451.00M447.00M459.00M
Net Income35.00M91.00M-134.00M-284.00M186.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.74B5.55B5.74B5.77B5.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments352.00M419.00M339.00M293.00M238.00M
Total Debt3.02B3.05B3.12B884.00M1.46B
Total Liabilities5.46B5.29B5.45B2.51B3.24B
Stockholders Equity275.00M260.00M284.00M3.26B2.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow169.00M205.00M223.00M177.00M338.00M
Operating Cash Flow319.00M344.00M355.00M274.00M449.00M
Investing Cash Flow-141.00M-135.00M-316.00M-417.00M-2.49B
Financing Cash Flow-96.00M-134.00M31.00M183.00M2.35B

NCR Atleos, LLC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price29.51
Price Trends
50DMA
27.67
Positive
100DMA
27.31
Positive
200DMA
28.98
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.56
Negative
RSI
59.33
Neutral
STOCH
46.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NATL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.23, above the 50-day MA of 27.67, and above the 200-day MA of 28.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NATL.

NCR Atleos, LLC Risk Analysis

NCR Atleos, LLC disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NCR Atleos, LLC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Atleos' stock price may fluctuate significantly. Q4, 2024
2.
Tariffs and other trade measures could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position and cash flows. Q4, 2024

NCR Atleos, LLC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$1.92B17.8711.49%-7.54%-6.40%
70
Outperform
$2.17B18.9841.58%-0.19%
68
Neutral
$3.23B139.959.25%15.53%-75.45%
68
Neutral
$3.50B-4.59%-18.75%-256.14%
PAPAR
58
Neutral
$2.82B-13.65%-8.82%90.01%
49
Neutral
C$2.96B2.13-80.92%2.67%12.55%-24.47%
DBDBD
48
Neutral
$2.20B0.78-1.02%-2.66%-100.56%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NATL
NCR Atleos, LLC
29.51
0.76
2.64%
AGYS
Agilysys
115.29
9.79
9.28%
CALX
Calix
53.93
19.48
56.55%
PLUS
Eplus
72.46
-0.84
-1.15%
PAR
Par Technology
69.52
22.91
49.15%
DBD
Diebold Nixdorf
59.00
18.42
45.39%

NCR Atleos, LLC Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
NCR Atleos Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 21, 2025

NCR Atleos Corporation held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 21, 2025, where several key decisions were made. Eight directors were elected to serve until the 2026 Annual Meeting, executive compensation was approved on a non-binding basis, and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (NATL) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCR Atleos, LLC stock, see the NATL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NCR Atleos Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results
Positive
May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, NCR Atleos Corporation announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting strong performance with profits and earnings meeting or exceeding guidance ranges. The company experienced a 40% increase in unique ATM as a Service customers and a 24% rise in revenue year-over-year. Despite macroeconomic disruptions, Atleos maintained a positive outlook for the year, reaffirming its full-year guidance and highlighting its strategic focus on operational improvements and product innovation.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025