NCR Atleos, LLC (NATL)
NYSE:NATL
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NCR Atleos, LLC
(NYSE:NATL)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(2.87% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profitability recovery and stronger TTM revenue momentum), tempered by weaker recent free-cash-flow conversion and historical balance-sheet risk. Technicals are broadly neutral, valuation is a headwind due to the high P/E, while corporate events are supportive given the premium M&A agreement and improved deal-financing certainty.
Positive Factors
Recurring ATM-as-a-Service model
NCR Atleos’ ATM-as-a-Service and managed-services mix creates recurring, contract-backed revenue and long-term customer relationships with banks, credit unions and operators. This sticky model supports predictable cash flow, high service attach rates and durable cross-sell of software and field services.
Negative Factors
Historical leverage and small equity base
Although leverage metrics have improved, the historically high debt levels and relatively small equity amplify sensitivity to earnings swings. A thin equity base can magnify downside volatility, constrain financial flexibility and raise refinancing or covenant risks during adverse cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring ATM-as-a-Service model
NCR Atleos’ ATM-as-a-Service and managed-services mix creates recurring, contract-backed revenue and long-term customer relationships with banks, credit unions and operators. This sticky model supports predictable cash flow, high service attach rates and durable cross-sell of software and field services.
Read all positive factors
NCR Atleos, LLC (NATL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.33B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)916.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.4
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth4.37%
EPS Growth64.80%
CountryUS
Employees20,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.37
Shares Outstanding73,779,816
10 Day Avg. Volume1,152,737
30 Day Avg. Volume916,842
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)6.95
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio11.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$50.27Price Target Upside10.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.50B
NCR Atleos, LLC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NCR Atleos Corporation, a financial technology company, provides self-directed banking solutions to financial institutions, merchants, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers in the United States, rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Afr...
How the Company Makes Money
NCR Atleos primarily makes money by providing ATM-related technology and managed services to financial institutions and ATM operators under recurring and usage-based commercial arrangements. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Managed/outso...
NCR Atleos, LLC Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights significant achievements in financial performance, segment growth, and strategic initiatives, despite facing challenges such as tariffs and a decline in prepaid payroll card transactions.Positive Updates
Separation from Legacy NCR Completed
Successfully bifurcated or duplicated 140 years of IT systems and hardware, separated hundreds of global locations, established dozens of new legal entities, and migrated over 700 critical customer connections.
Negative Updates
Tariffs Impact
Tariffs could impact the business by $25 million this year, with uncertainty on future tariff rates affecting forecasts.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Separation from Legacy NCR Completed
Successfully bifurcated or duplicated 140 years of IT systems and hardware, separated hundreds of global locations, established dozens of new legal entities, and migrated over 700 critical customer connections.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the NCR Atleos Q3 2025 earnings call, guidance emphasized maintaining consistent financial performance and capital allocation to ensure growth. The company has achieved a targeted leverage level of 3x and aims to reduce it to about 2.8x by year-end. Although share repurchases were restricted in Q3, they plan to commence in the upcoming trading window. Atleos reported a 6% core top-line growth, driven by a 24% increase in hardware revenue and a 37% growth in ATM-as-a-Service. Profitability was at the high end of expectations, with EBITDA margins expanding by 40 basis points to 19.5%. The self-service banking segment saw an 11% revenue increase, with significant profit growth and margins up 220 basis points. The company anticipates substantial free cash flow conversion improvement in 2026, approaching 35% of adjusted EBITDA. For the network segment, revenue was down 1% due to lower payroll card transactions, but the overall rolling 12-month ARPU increased slightly. Atleos reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, expecting free cash flow conversion to exceed 30% and adjusted EBITDA to hit the lower end of the guided range.NCR Atleos, LLC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.42B | 4.35B | 4.32B | 4.19B | 4.13B | 3.55B |
| Gross Profit | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.03B | 933.00M | 919.00M | 892.00M |
| EBITDA | 738.00M | 736.00M | 449.00M | 451.00M | 447.00M | 459.00M |
| Net Income | 176.00M | 162.00M | 91.00M | -134.00M | 108.00M | 186.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.64B | 5.67B | 5.55B | 5.74B | 5.77B | 5.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 433.00M | 456.00M | 419.00M | 339.00M | 293.00M | 238.00M |
| Total Debt | 226.00M | 225.00M | 3.05B | 3.12B | 884.00M | 1.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.25B | 5.27B | 5.29B | 5.45B | 2.51B | 3.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 396.00M | 403.00M | 260.00M | 284.00M | 3.26B | 2.33B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 82.00M | 239.00M | 205.00M | 223.00M | 177.00M | 338.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 224.00M | 356.00M | 344.00M | 355.00M | 274.00M | 449.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -104.00M | -116.00M | -135.00M | -316.00M | -417.00M | -2.49B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -215.00M | -253.00M | -134.00M | 31.00M | 183.00M | 2.35B |
NCR Atleos, LLC Technical Analysis
Positive
45.69
Price Trends
44.21
Positive
42.29
Positive
40.05
Positive
Market Momentum
0.11
Positive
50.04
Neutral
43.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NATL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.54, above the 50-day MA of 44.21, and above the 200-day MA of 40.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NATL.
NCR Atleos, LLC Risk Analysis
NCR Atleos, LLC disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NCR Atleos, LLC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NCR Atleos, LLC Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $2.29B | 51.44 | 12.72% | ― | 15.85% | 63.44% | |
71 Outperform | $2.18B | 22.71 | 15.39% | ― | 8.60% | -0.68% | |
71 Outperform | $3.67B | 25.71 | -16.71% | ― | 4.90% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $3.33B | 36.45 | 47.60% | ― | 4.37% | 64.80% | |
62 Neutral | $2.47B | 132.40 | 9.97% | ― | 4.32% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $1.81B | 67.66 | 7.70% | ― | 8.12% | -82.54% |
* Technology Sector Average
NATL
NCR Atleos, LLC
45.17
19.19
73.86%
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NCR Atleos, LLC Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
NCR Atleos Advances Brink’s Merger with Noteholder Consent
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 11, 2026, NCR Atleos Corporation announced that it had successfully completed a consent solicitation to amend the indenture governing its 9.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2029, securing the required majority support from noteholders. The c...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
NCR Atleos Seeks Noteholder Consents for Brink’s Merger
Neutral
Mar 5, 2026
On March 5, 2026, NCR Atleos announced it had begun soliciting consents from holders of its 9.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2029 to amend the indenture governing those notes, in connection with its planned merger with The Brink’s Company. Th...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Brink’s to Acquire NCR Atleos in $6.6 Billion Merger
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, NCR Atleos and The Brink’s Company announced a definitive merger agreement under which Brink’s will acquire NCR Atleos in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at about $6.6 billion, including assumed debt. The deal...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.