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Clearway Energy Inc (CWEN)
NYSE:CWEN

Clearway Energy (CWEN) AI Stock Analysis

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CWEN

Clearway Energy

(NYSE:CWEN)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
▲(6.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/10/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet leverage and some earnings/cash-flow volatility, despite steady revenue growth and solid operating cash generation. The latest earnings call was a key positive, with reiterated CAFD guidance, strong commercialization progress, and clear long-term per-share targets. Technically the trend is improving versus longer-term averages, while valuation is supported by the dividend but tempered by a mid-20s P/E.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Clearway produces durable operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, providing a structural funding source to support dividends, reinvestment in growth projects and debt servicing. Consistent CAFD supports long‑term capital allocation and reduces dependence on short‑term market funding.
Commercialized Development Pipeline
A large, well‑commercialized pipeline and multi‑GW of contracted PPAs create durable growth visibility and predictable future cash flows. High pipeline commercialization reduces execution uncertainty and underpins management's multi‑year CAFD targets and capacity to scale repowerings and new builds.
Funding Access and Capital Actions
Recent successful capital raises demonstrate market access and improved funding flexibility, supporting investment in repowerings and growth projects. Establishing longer‑dated debt and measured equity issuance enhances ability to execute multi‑year deployment plans and manage refinancing risk.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
The business remains meaningfully debt‑funded for an asset‑heavy, rate‑sensitive renewable utility. Elevated leverage constrains financial flexibility, amplifies refinancing and interest‑rate risk, and limits optionality for M&A or opportunistic deployment during adverse market/resource cycles.
Material Control Weakness
A reported material weakness in HLBV review introduces governance and reporting risk that can undermine investor confidence, delay financial close processes, and require sustained remediation. Persistent control issues can increase audit scrutiny and raise financing costs over time.
CAFD/FCF Volatility
A year‑over‑year step‑down in free cash flow and weaker cash conversion signals earnings and cash volatility tied to resources and timing of growth investments. Persistent FCF variability increases reliance on external capital for growth and dividends and raises sensitivity to operational and weather risks.

Clearway Energy (CWEN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Clearway Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionClearway Energy, Inc. operates in the renewable energy business in the United States. It has approximately 5,000 net megawatts (MW) of installed wind and solar generation projects; and approximately 2,500 net MW of natural gas generation facilities. The company was formerly known as NRG Yield, Inc. and changed its name to Clearway Energy, Inc. in August 2018. Clearway Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Princeton, New Jersey. Clearway Energy, Inc. is a subsidiary of Clearway Energy Group LLC.
How the Company Makes MoneyClearway Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity generated from its renewable energy assets, which are typically contracted under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs). These agreements provide a stable and predictable revenue stream by securing customers for the electricity produced, often at fixed prices. Additionally, Clearway benefits from the sale of renewable energy certificates (RECs) and tax equity financing, which provides financial incentives for investments in renewable energy projects. The company also engages in partnerships with other energy firms and utilities to expand its operational footprint and enhance its service offerings, further contributing to its earnings.

Clearway Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Net Income Breakdown
Net Income Breakdown
Analyzes the components contributing to net income, providing insight into profitability and how different factors like costs, taxes, and interest impact the bottom line.
Chart InsightsRenewables dominate volatility—with consistent strong mid‑year cash contributions and recurring large year‑end negatives, signaling seasonal generation plus mark‑to‑market/PPA timing swings rather than stable operating EBITDA; Thermal drops to zero after 2022, indicating asset sales or reclassification, shifting earnings mix toward Renewables and Conventional. A massive corporate one‑off in 2022 Q2 skews totals. The recent 2025 Q3 rebound across Renewables and Conventional aligns with management’s tightened CAFD guidance and M&A-led growth plan, but persistent quarter-to-quarter swings and planned equity issuance are dilution and predictability risks for yield‑focused investors.
Data provided by:The Fly

Clearway Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong execution on operations, commercialization and funding with several concrete metrics (Q4 adjusted EBITDA $237M, full-year CAFD $430M, 2026 guidance $470M–$510M) and a large, well-commercialized pipeline supporting ambitious 2027 and 2030 CAFD per share targets. Management highlighted robust PPA pricing (roughly double vs three years ago), signed ~2 GW of new PPAs, attractive repowering yields (>11%), and enhanced capital flexibility (closed $600M notes, $100M equity raised, stock +30%). Headwinds included below-median wind in Q4, solar timing impacts, modest near-term CAFD uplift from individual recontracts, and typical execution/funding/permitting sensitivities tied to achieving long-term targets. Overall, positives around growth visibility, funding and operational delivery significantly outweigh the few near-term performance and execution risks.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year CAFD Above Guidance Midpoint
Full-year cash available for distribution (CAFD) of $430 million, above the midpoint of original guidance ($400M–$440M) and at the top end of the original range per management commentary.
Quarterly Financials
Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $237 million and CAFD (free cash flow) of $35 million.
2026 Guidance Reaffirmed
Management reiterated 2026 CAFD guidance range of $470 million to $510 million.
Clear Long-Term CAFD per Share Targets and CAGR
Reiterated 2027 CAFD per share target of $2.70 or better and 2030 CAFD per share target of $2.90–$3.10, representing a 7%–8% CAGR from 2025; management expects sustained CAFD per share growth of roughly 5%–8%+ beyond 2030.
Growth Execution — Projects and Pipeline
Enterprise added ~1.3 gigawatts of value-enhancing projects in 2025; 100% of planned repowering and new construction projects in the 2026–2027 vintages have been commercialized; 2029 development activity exceeds 7 GW, providing a sizable pipeline well above what is required for 2030 objectives.
Sponsor-Enabled Growth and PPAs
Signed approximately 2.0 GW of new PPAs with hyperscalers and utilities in 2025; management noted PPA pricing for comparable markets today is roughly double (~100% increase) versus three years ago and sees sustained robust pricing across geographies.
Attractive Yield Opportunities on Repowerings
Planned repowerings totaling >900 MW are expected to deliver CAFD yields in excess of 11% while extending wind fleet life.
Strengthened Funding Capacity
Closed upsized $600 million senior unsecured notes due 2034 at attractive spreads (second tightest high-yield issuance spread in sector since 2020); executed $100 million of opportunistic equity issuances (two $50M tranches) that management describes as the least dilutive in platform history; stock price up over 30% since late August, improving capital flexibility.
Near-Term Deployment Optionality
Company is well placed to deploy at least $650 million incremental corporate capital over 2028–2030 (on top of prior plans) and has line-of-sight to deploy well over $600 million in corporate capital in 2029, subject to capital allocation discipline.
Operational Performance and Availability
Management highlighted high plant availability across technologies in 2025, strong operational execution, and on-time commercial operations contributing to outperformance vs guidance.
Negative Updates
Seasonal Resource and Timing Headwinds in Q4
Wind resource in the quarter was below median expectations across the fleet (including California); solar performance was impacted by timing of debt service related to growth investments, reducing near-term renewable output versus budget.
Incremental Near-Term CAFD Impact of Recontracting is Modest
Management described recontracting in ERCOT and similar opportunities as enhancing quality of earnings but indicated single-digit millions of incremental CAFD per individual project in the near term, i.e., limited immediate material uplift per project despite long-term benefits.
Execution and Funding Sensitivities
Guidance and targets remain subject to variability in resource performance, energy pricing, timing of growth investments, permitting and interconnection; management emphasized disciplined capital allocation and potential future equity issuance (5%–15% assumed historically) if accretive.
Dependency on Future Contracting and Sponsor Investments
A portion of the 2030 pathway relies on sponsor-enabled drop-downs/CWEN investments, late-stage contracting (about 50% of 2028 late-stage MW contracted) and third-party M&A not embedded in targets — introducing execution and timing risk if commercialization or sponsor investments shift.
Company Guidance
Clearway reiterated 2026 CAFD guidance of $470–$510 million (midpoint assumes P50 renewable production) after delivering full‑year 2025 CAFD of $430 million (above the $400–$440m original range) and reporting Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $237 million and quarterly CAFD of $35 million; management reaffirmed a 2027 CAFD/share target of $2.70+ and a 2030 CAFD/share target of $2.90–$3.10 (implying a 7–8% CAGR from 2025) with upside to 5–8%+ growth in 2031+ from the 2030 baseline. 2025 execution added ~1.3 GW of projects and ~2 GW of new PPAs with hyperscalers; >900 MW of repowerings are on track for 2027 COD with CAFD yields in excess of 11%; 100% of 2026/2027 repowering and new‑build projects are commercialized, ~50% of 2028 late‑stage MWs are contracted, 2029 development activity exceeds 7 GW with potential to deploy well over $600 million of corporate capital that year, and the company expects to develop roughly 2 GW+/year into the 2030s. Identified growth financing includes ~$1.3 billion of 2027–2028 corporate capital opportunities targeted at ≥10.5% CAFD yields, the ability to deploy at least $650 million incremental capital over 2028–2030 (with optionality to scale), a prior ~$2.5 billion corporate capital plan to reach 2030 goals, recent funding actions including $600 million of senior notes due 2034 and ~$100 million of opportunistic equity issuance, and a long‑term funding framework targeting ~4.0–4.5x leverage, a BB target rating and a post‑2030 payout ratio below 70%.

Clearway Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Operations look stable-to-improving with steady revenue growth and better 2025 profitability, and cash generation remains solid with positive free cash flow. The main constraint is elevated leverage for an asset-heavy utility model, plus some year-to-year earnings volatility and a 2025 step-down in free cash flow.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Revenue has grown steadily from 2023–2025 (2025 up ~3.9% year over year), and profitability improved in 2025 with net margin rising to ~11.8% (vs. ~6.4% in 2024). However, operating profitability appears volatile across years (notably an outsized 2022 profit profile versus more normalized 2023–2025 results), which lowers confidence in earnings consistency. 2025 also shows weaker operating leverage than prior years despite revenue growth.
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Leverage remains the key constraint. Total debt is high (about $9.4B in 2025) and, while the debt-to-equity ratio improved to ~1.6x in 2025 from ~3.8–4.5x in 2020–2024, the business is still meaningfully debt-funded. The improvement in equity base in 2025 is a positive, but the capital structure remains a risk factor for a rate-sensitive, asset-heavy renewable utility model.
Cash Flow
61
Positive
Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow remained strong in 2025 (~$688M) with positive free cash flow (~$369M). That said, free cash flow declined in 2025 (down ~16%), and cash conversion softened versus 2024 as free cash flow was about ~54% of net income (vs. ~63% in 2024). Overall cash flow looks resilient, but the recent step-down in free cash flow is a watch item.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.43B1.37B1.31B1.19B1.29B
Gross Profit217.00M870.00M841.00M755.00M835.00M
EBITDA1.10B1.08B1.03B2.20B904.00M
Net Income169.00M88.00M79.00M582.00M51.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.66B14.33B14.70B12.31B12.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments818.00M332.00M535.00M657.00M179.00M
Total Debt10.20B7.75B8.66B7.36B8.27B
Total Liabilities10.74B8.77B9.71B8.28B9.51B
Stockholders Equity1.92B2.06B2.10B2.23B1.83B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow369.00M483.00M408.00M675.00M550.00M
Operating Cash Flow688.00M770.00M702.00M787.00M701.00M
Investing Cash Flow321.00M-725.00M-523.00M1.13B88.00M
Financing Cash Flow-924.00M-363.00M-124.00M-1.57B-600.00M

Clearway Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price37.44
Price Trends
50DMA
37.16
Positive
100DMA
35.25
Positive
200DMA
32.46
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.40
Positive
RSI
45.21
Neutral
STOCH
62.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWEN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.28, above the 50-day MA of 37.16, and above the 200-day MA of 32.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CWEN.

Clearway Energy Risk Analysis

Clearway Energy disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Clearway Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Clearway Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$3.76B21.3812.18%0.99%45.09%50.54%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
61
Neutral
$7.68B23.425.91%5.29%2.54%124.89%
56
Neutral
$6.48B54.134.95%0.42%6.07%12.07%
55
Neutral
$6.96B-2.94-1196.72%3.84%5.93%-39.88%
55
Neutral
$1.85B-231.4910.05%42.09%219.69%
47
Neutral
$3.87B-6.52-41.93%765.67%-202.81%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CWEN
Clearway Energy
37.44
9.16
32.38%
ORA
Ormat Techno
106.42
35.63
50.34%
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable
38.58
10.68
38.28%
SMR
NuScale Power
11.44
-7.44
-39.41%
RNW
ReNew Energy Global
5.07
-1.12
-18.09%
EE
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A
32.99
2.57
8.43%

Clearway Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Clearway Energy Proposes Charter Change to Unify Share Classes
Positive
Mar 9, 2026

On March 9, 2026, Clearway Energy, Inc. announced that its board approved a proposal to amend the company’s charter to convert each share of Class A common stock into one share of Class C common stock, subject to shareholder approval at the 2026 annual meeting. The move would consolidate the company’s dual public share classes into a single class and is structured to preserve the collective voting power of public investors through a voting trust arrangement with Clearway Energy Group LLC.

The company said the simplification responds to investor feedback and is expected to address the persistent valuation discount and lower liquidity of Class A shares, which last traded at $35.57 versus $37.94 for Class C on March 9, 2026. Management argues that a unified, more liquid Class C stock with a larger public float should broaden the investor base and support Clearway’s capital allocation strategy, though the conversion’s tax treatment, while intended to be tax-free, is not backed by an IRS ruling.

The most recent analyst rating on (CWEN) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Clearway Energy stock, see the CWEN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Clearway Energy completes $600 million senior notes offering
Positive
Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Clearway Energy Operating LLC, a subsidiary of Clearway Energy, Inc., completed a private offering of $600 million in 5.750% senior unsecured notes due 2034, sold to institutional investors under Rule 144A and Regulation S in a transaction exempt from U.S. registration requirements. The notes, governed by an indenture with CSC Delaware Trust Company as trustee, carry semiannual interest payments beginning July 15, 2026, feature a series of optional redemption provisions before and after January 15, 2029, and impose customary covenants restricting liens, major asset transfers, and certain corporate actions, with standard events of default that allow acceleration if payment failures, covenant breaches, cross‑defaults, or insolvency events occur, shaping the company’s capital structure and creditor protections going forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (CWEN) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Clearway Energy stock, see the CWEN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Clearway Energy Upsizes Senior Notes Offering for Growth
Positive
Jan 8, 2026

On January 8, 2026, Clearway Energy Operating LLC, a subsidiary of Clearway Energy, Inc., announced a proposed offering of senior unsecured notes due 2034, initially targeted at $500 million and subsequently upsized the same day to $600 million after pricing. The company plans to allocate an amount equal to the net proceeds to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, finance or refinance certain indebtedness, and support the acquisition of renewable energy generation and storage assets, moves that are expected to strengthen its balance sheet while further expanding its clean energy portfolio and reinforcing its position in the U.S. renewable power market.

The most recent analyst rating on (CWEN) stock is a Hold with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Clearway Energy stock, see the CWEN Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Clearway Energy Reports Control Weakness in HLBV Calculations
Negative
Jan 7, 2026

In a filing covering its quarterly periods ended March 31, June 30 and September 30, 2025, Clearway Energy, Inc. and Clearway Energy LLC disclosed that they had identified and corrected immaterial errors in the hypothetical liquidation at book value (HLBV) calculations used to allocate net income and loss to redeemable noncontrolling interests and noncontrolling interests in tax equity partnerships. The company concluded under SEC guidance that these errors were not material to any prior reporting period and therefore did not require restatement of previously issued financial statements, and the adjustments did not affect reported net income or cash flow from operations, though prior-period figures will be revised when presented in future filings. Management also reported that in the fourth quarter of 2025 it had identified a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting related to the review of these HLBV calculations, and while Clearway has begun remediation efforts and plans process changes to strengthen controls, it acknowledged that the weakness will remain until the new controls are fully tested and may require additional measures, underscoring ongoing governance and reporting risk for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CWEN) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Clearway Energy stock, see the CWEN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 10, 2026