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Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A (EE)
NYSE:EE
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Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A
(NYSE:EE)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(6.32% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by constructive fundamentals and a strong earnings-call outlook (higher 2026 EBITDA guidance, solid liquidity/low leverage, and new shareholder returns). Offsetting this are a rich valuation (high P/E and low yield) and technically stretched momentum, alongside historically volatile revenue and cash-flow patterns.
Positive Factors
Contracted FSRU portfolio & backlog
A material portion of 2026 EBITDA guidance is tied to contracted FSRU capacity and recent deal uplifts, creating recurring, take-or-pay style cash flows. This reduces commodity exposure, supports multi-year revenue visibility as new assets come into service and underpins durable earnings expansion.
Outstanding operational reliability
Sustained >99.9% availability demonstrates strong operational execution and asset uptime. High reliability lowers penalty/compensation risk, increases contracted utilization and customer confidence, supporting steady cash generation and long-term redeployment economics for FSRU assets.
Liquidity and manageable leverage
A sizable cash balance, undrawn revolver and modest trailing leverage provide financial flexibility to fund committed growth, cover dry‑dock timing and support shareholder returns. This balance sheet buffer reduces near-term refinancing risk and enables disciplined capital allocation through 2026.
Negative Factors
Revenue & margin volatility
Historic swings in revenue and margins, plus a TTM step-change, complicate forecasting and raise sustainability questions. If elevated TTM margins reflect one-offs or timing, future earnings could revert, increasing downside risk to cash flow that funds capex and returns.
Front‑loaded growth and maintenance capex
Concentrated early‑period cash needs amplify execution and liquidity exposure despite available revolver. Large near-term cash outflows heighten timing risk for deliveries and dry docks, potentially forcing tradeoffs between project spending, maintenance and shareholder distributions if schedules slip.
Iraq capex increase & execution uncertainty
Rising Iraq terminal costs and noted commercial/execution uncertainties raise project economics sensitivity. Cost overruns or delays would defer EBITDA contribution and pressure returns on committed capital, increasing multi‑year execution risk for a key growth initiative.
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A (EE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.86B
Dividend Yield0.99%
Average Volume (3M)487.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.4
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth45.09%
EPS Growth50.54%
CountryUS
Employees919
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding32,045,510
10 Day Avg. Volume652,024
30 Day Avg. Volume487,152
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio13.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.68
P/FCF Ratio3.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.43Price Target Upside28.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.61B
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionExcelerate Energy, Inc. provides flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) solutions worldwide. The company offers floating regasification services, including floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs), infrastructure development, and LNG and natural gas supply, procurement, and distribution services; LNG terminal services; natural gas supply to-power projects; and a suite of smaller-scale gas distribution solutions. It also leases an LNG terminal in Bahia, Brazil. Excelerate Energy, LLC acts as general partner of the company. Excelerate Energy, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas. Excelerate Energy, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Excelerate Energy Holdings, LLC.
How the Company Makes MoneyExcelerate Energy makes money mainly by providing LNG import infrastructure and services centered on its FSRU business. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) long-term contracted fees for the charter or lease of FSRU vessels and/or the provision of regasification capacity (often structured as take-or-pay style arrangements where customers pay for reserved capacity regardless of utilization); (2) terminal and infrastructure service fees tied to operating LNG import facilities, including regasification, storage, and related terminal operations; and (3) project development and other services, which can include engineering, commissioning, and management services for LNG import projects depending on contract scope. Earnings are driven by the number of contracted assets in service, contract duration and pricing, customer credit quality (often sovereigns, utilities, or state-linked entities), and utilization/availability metrics under contract terms. Material factors that can affect results include fleet deployment and uptime, the timing of new projects entering service, and regulatory/geopolitical dynamics influencing LNG import demand. Specific partnership details and exact revenue split by stream are null.
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive outlook: Excelerate reported record 2025 results with adjusted EBITDA up ~30% and strong operational reliability (>99.9%), provided materially higher 2026 EBITDA guidance (midpoint ~18% above 2025), completed the Jamaica integration successfully and advanced the strategic Iraq project with attractive ~5x economics. The company also maintains strong liquidity, low leverage (1.6x), and initiated shareholder returns (dividend and $75M buyback authorization). Key negatives are a higher-than-expected Iraq capex estimate, elevated near-term maintenance and growth capital (first-half weighted with a ~$220M vessel payment), modest hurricane-related Q4 impacts, and some remaining execution/commercial uncertainties around the FSRU conversion and redeployments. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA and Strong YoY Growth
Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $449 million (record), up about $100 million or ~30% year-over-year versus prior year.
Material 2026 EBITDA Guidance Upside
Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $515 million to $545 million (midpoint $530M), implying an increase of over $80 million (~18% vs. 2025). Guidance driven by contracted FSRU portfolio, full-year Jamaica contribution, partial Iraq contribution and incremental supply uplifts.
Outstanding Operational Reliability
Enterprise-wide reliability exceeded 99.9% for 2025 — the strongest operational performance to date, supporting stable and predictable cash flows.
Successful Jamaica Acquisition and Integration
Jamaica LNG-to-power platform acquisition closed May 2025 and fully integrated in Q4 2025; delivered stable contracted cash flows and demonstrated resilience during Hurricane Melissa with minimal operational and financial impacts.
Iraq Project Progress and Economics
Hull 3407 newbuild completed sea trials and is advancing through final commissioning with delivery in early Q2 2026; integrated Iraq terminal expected to commence operations in Q3 2026. Total terminal capex now estimated at $520M–$550M (inclusive of FSRU); expected EBITDA build multiple of ~5x at minimum contracted offtake (250 mmscfd) with upside to 500 mmscfd.
Strong Balance Sheet, Liquidity and Low Leverage
As of 12/31/2025 total debt (including finance leases) $1.3 billion, cash & equivalents $538 million, full $500 million revolver capacity available; net debt $730 million and trailing net leverage ~1.6x.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation Actions
Board approved quarterly dividend $0.08 per share ($0.32 annualized) with target low double-digit annual dividend growth starting 2026; $75 million share repurchase program authorized in December 2025.
Committed Capital Positioned for Growth
2026 committed growth capital guidance of $370 million–$400 million (includes ~$220 million remaining for Hull 3407 and $140M–$170M for the Iraq terminal) and maintenance CapEx guidance of $100M–$110M to support reliability and dry docks.
Incremental Supply & Contract Uplifts
Back-to-back QatarEnergy and Petrobangla supply agreements expected to provide incremental EBITDA uplift (Petrobangla contribution noted ~ $15M for two years then ~$18M thereafter) and anticipated improved economics from redeployment/renegotiation of Express FSRU starting 2027.
Negative Updates
Iraq Terminal Capital Cost Increase
Total estimated capital for the Iraq terminal revised upward to $520M–$550M (inclusive of FSRU) due to jetty structural reinforcement and scope refinements; all-in cost of the FSRU remains roughly $370M with ~$220M remaining payment due in Q2 2026.
Fourth Quarter Sequential Softness
Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $113 million and adjusted net income of $40 million — sequentially lower than Q3 primarily due to a full Atlantic Basin cargo in Q3 vs partial delivery in Q4, higher business development expenses and modestly lower LNG gas & power margins in Jamaica after Hurricane Melissa.
Short-Term Rise in Maintenance CapEx
Maintenance CapEx expected to increase from $57M (FY2025) to $100M–$110M in 2026, driven largely by the timing of multiple vessel dry docks (Exquisite in Q2, Express in Q4 and Explorer dry dock activity spilling into 2026) — results in higher near-term cash outflows.
Hurricane Melissa Impact
Hurricane Melissa caused an estimated ~$6 million EBITDA impact in Q4 2025, including ~$2 million in SG&A (about $1 million CSR spend and other support costs) and modest margin effects in Jamaica.
Higher Interest Expense
Adjusted net income growth was partly offset by higher interest expense related to the company’s 2030 notes (incremental financing cost pressure noted).
Near-Term Cash Concentration and Execution Risk
Committed growth capital is front-loaded (first-half weighted), including ~$220M vessel payment and $140M–$170M Iraq spend, concentrating execution and liquidity needs in early 2026 and exposing near-term timing/implementation risk.
Uncertainty Around FSRU Conversion and Redeployments
FSRU conversion plans targeted for early 2028 remain under negotiation and are not yet included in committed growth capital; Express FSRU redeployment expected to drive 2027 uplift but specifics and counterparties remain under discussion.
Company Guidance
Excelerate guided full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $515–$545 million (midpoint >$80M above 2025’s record $449M, which was up ~30% year‑over‑year), backed by a full year of Jamaica, a partial year of Iraq and incremental uplift from QatarEnergy/Petrobangla supply deals; 2026 maintenance CapEx is forecast at $100–$110M (dry docks: Exquisite Q2, Explorer Q1, Express Q4) and committed growth capital $370–$400M (including roughly $220M remaining for newbuild Hull 3407, $140–$170M for the Iraq integrated terminal and $10M other). Management said Hull 3407’s all‑in vessel cost is roughly $370M with ~$220M due in Q2, the Iraq terminal all‑in CapEx is now expected to be $520–$550M (inclusive of the FSRU) and the project is on track to start operations in Q3 2026 with an expected ~5x EBITDA build multiple at a minimum 250 MMscf/d (scalable to 500 MMscf/d). Balance sheet metrics as of 12/31/25: total debt (incl. leases) $1.3B, cash $538M, full $500M revolver available, net debt $730M and trailing net leverage 1.6x; the Board approved a $0.08 quarterly dividend ($0.32 annualized) payable 3/26/26, targets low‑double‑digit annual dividend growth through 2028, and authorized a $75M share repurchase program; operational reliability exceeded 99.9% in 2025.Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Recent profitability and cash generation look stronger (very strong TTM net margin and positive TTM free cash flow) and the latest leverage snapshot appears low, but results show meaningful volatility in revenue, margins, and free cash flow across annual periods, raising sustainability/comparability risk.Income Statement
Profitability improved materially over time, with net margin rising from ~1.1% (2022) to ~3.9% (2024) and a very strong TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin of ~18.1%. However, revenue has been volatile, including declines in 2023 and 2024, and the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue level/growth appears extreme versus prior years, suggesting a potential one-off step-change or comparability issue. Margins have also been inconsistent historically (gross and operating profitability swing meaningfully year to year).58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) snapshot, with debt-to-equity at ~0.16 and equity representing a large capital base, supporting a solid ~10.0% return on equity. That said, the prior annual periods show materially higher leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.9–1.5 from 2020–2024), indicating the balance sheet profile has shifted significantly. Overall asset base is stable, but the historical debt load relative to equity remains a key risk to monitor if the recent improvement is not durable.66
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is generally supportive: operating cash flow covers accounting earnings in every period provided (coverage ~0.27–1.49), and free cash flow is positive in most years, including strong TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow. The main weakness is volatility—free cash flow turned negative in 2023 and conversion of earnings into free cash flow is only moderate in the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) period (~0.65 of net income), implying ongoing capital needs and/or working-capital swings can pressure cash consistency.62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.23B | 851.44M | 1.16B | 2.47B | 888.55M |
| Gross Profit | 395.41M | 408.08M | 412.40M | 259.68M | 200.41M |
| EBITDA | 418.54M | 315.79M | 326.70M | 296.87M | 271.57M |
| Net Income | 39.20M | 32.88M | 30.41M | 26.27M | 41.12M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.13B | 2.88B | 2.86B | 2.87B | 2.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 541.47M | 580.99M | 572.32M | 530.00M | 85.01M |
| Total Debt | 1.43B | 697.38M | 769.64M | 715.88M | 1.02B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.90B | 994.71M | 1.05B | 1.17B | 1.50B |
| Stockholders Equity | 682.48M | 487.99M | 505.45M | 477.35M | 1.12B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 277.02M | 131.18M | -80.85M | 105.82M | 105.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 440.01M | 244.44M | 231.88M | 225.09M | 141.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.18B | -113.26M | -308.63M | -119.27M | -36.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 744.34M | -149.02M | 111.36M | 341.18M | -124.10M |
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A Technical Analysis
Neutral
33.86
Price Trends
36.22
Negative
31.60
Positive
28.87
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.86
Positive
36.72
Neutral
4.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.80, below the 50-day MA of 36.22, and above the 200-day MA of 28.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EE.
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $3.86B | 21.38 | 12.18% | 0.99% | 45.09% | 50.54% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
55 Neutral | $1.93B | -231.49 | 10.05% | ― | 42.09% | 219.69% | |
53 Neutral | $580.55M | -4.52 | -140.41% | ― | -35.99% | -46.51% | |
50 Neutral | $3.09B | -14.43 | -12.87% | ― | -16.15% | -324.40% | |
47 Neutral | $4.05B | -6.52 | -41.93% | ― | 765.67% | -202.81% | |
47 Neutral | $67.08M | ― | >-0.01% | ― | 146.01% | 63.18% |
* Energy Sector Average
EE
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A
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23.53%
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ReNew Energy Global
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.