Fluence Energy (FLNC) AI Stock Analysis

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Fluence Energy

(NASDAQ:FLNC)

Rating:51Neutral

Price Target:

$5.00

▲(0.60%Upside)

Fluence Energy's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong revenue growth and robust backlog, which are mitigated by profitability challenges and valuation concerns. Technical indicators suggest neutral to bearish momentum. The earnings call provides some optimism about long-term prospects, but near-term execution risks remain due to geopolitical factors.

Positive Factors

EBITDA Margin

Increasing 2026 EBITDA margins to reflect a potentially more benign tariff environment with China.

Valuation

Raising the DCF-derived price target to $5, implying a higher valuation based on 2026 sales.

Negative Factors

Industry Outlook

The stock is downgraded to 'Underperform' due to a valuation disconnect and wider slowing of industry outlook.

Revenue Guidance

Lowering 2025 revenue estimates due to management's guidance reduction and uncertainty around bookings activity, particularly in the U.S.

Tariffs Impact

Fluence’s ~20% cut to FY25 revenue guidance is driven by a pause in U.S. contracting tied to 154% tariffs on Chinese cells.

Fluence Energy (FLNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$905.62M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)4.59M

Price to Earnings (P/E)236.4

Beta (1Y)1.79

Revenue Growth6.08%

EPS Growth52.48%

CountryUS

Employees1,595

SectorUtilities

Sector Strength78

IndustryRenewable Utilities

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.24

Shares Outstanding130,718,870

10 Day Avg. Volume2,706,816

30 Day Avg. Volume4,585,473

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.09

Price to Book (P/B)2.33

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-3.50

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.73

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.07

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.18

Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.31

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$5.21

Price Target Upside4.83% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering17

Fluence Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFluence Energy, Inc. provides energy storage products and services, and artificial intelligence enabled digital applications for renewables and storage applications worldwide. The company sells energy storage products with integrated hardware, software, and digital intelligence, as well as engineering and delivery services to support the deployment of its storage products; operational and maintenance, and energy storage-as-a-service; and digital applications and solutions. Its energy storage products include Gridstack, a grid-scale industrial strength energy storage product; Sunstack for optimizing solar capture and delivery; and Edgestack, a commercial energy storage product that discharges when needed to flatten a facility's energy load profile. The company serves utilities, developers, and commercial and industrial customers. Fluence Energy, Inc. was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. Fluence Energy, Inc. is a joint venture of Siemens Aktiengesellschaft and The AES Corporation.

How the Company Makes MoneyFluence Energy makes money primarily through the sale of its energy storage systems and related services. The company's revenue model includes the design, engineering, and installation of its energy storage solutions, which are sold to utilities, independent power producers, and commercial and industrial customers. Fluence Energy also generates income through long-term service contracts, providing maintenance, monitoring, and optimization services for its deployed systems. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings, contributing to its overall earnings.

Fluence Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Annual Recurring Revenue

Annual Recurring Revenue
Shows the predictable revenue generated from ongoing contracts or subscriptions, highlighting the company's stability and potential for sustainable growth.

Chart InsightsFluence Energy's annual recurring revenue has shown strong growth, reaching $110 million by Q1 2025, driven by robust backlog and new contract additions. However, recent tariff hikes on Chinese imports pose risks, leading to a downward revision of fiscal 2025 guidance. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about international market expansion and its innovative Smartstack platform, which supports its long-term growth strategy. Investors should monitor the tariff situation closely, as it could impact U.S. project execution and overall revenue projections.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Fluence Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 10.20%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a challenging quarter for Fluence Energy, with strong revenue performance and innovation in Smartstack technology overshadowed by significant tariff-related uncertainties. These uncertainties have led to a pause in U.S. project execution and a downward revision of fiscal guidance, creating a cautious outlook despite robust backlog and liquidity.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Performance

Fluence Energy delivered approximately $432 million in revenue for Q2, exceeding expectations due to early project milestone achievements.

Robust Backlog and Pipeline

The company ended the quarter with approximately $4.9 billion in backlog and a pipeline exceeding $22 billion, indicating strong future potential.

Positive Adjusted Gross Profit Margin

Fluence Energy achieved a double-digit adjusted gross profit margin of 10.4%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of such performance.

Innovative Smartstack Technology

The launch of the Smartstack platform has been positively received, with its first contract already signed. It provides cost-effective solutions and facilitates a domestic content strategy.

Strong Liquidity Position

The company maintains over $1 billion in liquidity, with $610 million in total cash, supporting long-term strategic initiatives.

Negative Updates

Impact of Tariff Uncertainty

New tariffs on Chinese imports, rising from 10% to 155%, have led to economic uncertainty, pausing some U.S. contracts and affecting revenue projections.

Revised Fiscal 2025 Guidance

Due to tariff-related headwinds, revenue guidance has been lowered by $700 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance reduced by $75 million from previous expectations.

Operating Expenses Increase

Operating expenses increased by $10 million year-over-year due to higher R&D and sales and marketing costs, impacting EBITDA.

Delayed U.S. Project Execution

Some U.S. projects have been paused due to tariff uncertainty, resulting in a deferral of $700 million in expected revenue.

Company Guidance

During Fluence Energy's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call, key financial metrics were discussed, highlighting the company's performance and future expectations. The company reported approximately $432 million in revenue for Q2, with a double-digit adjusted gross profit margin and an annual recurring revenue that increased to $110 million. The backlog stood robust at approximately $4.9 billion, including $200 million in new contracts added during the quarter. Fluence also ended the quarter with over $1 billion in liquidity, comprising $610 million in total cash. However, due to recent significant tariff increases, particularly affecting imports from China, the company revised its fiscal 2025 outlook. Despite these challenges, Fluence anticipates a strong ramp-up in order volume, especially in international markets like Australia, and remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects due to its innovative Smartstack platform and U.S. supply chain strategy.

Fluence Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fluence Energy exhibits strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability, reflected in negative margins and consistent net losses. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage despite increasing liabilities, and cash flow issues indicate inefficiencies that could limit growth potential.

Income Statement

Neutral

Fluence Energy shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a negative EBIT and EBITDA margin, reflecting operational losses. However, the company has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, increasing from $561.3 million in 2020 to $2.33 billion in the TTM period. The net profit margin remains negative, indicating continued losses at the net income level, which is a concern for profitability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. While the debt-to-equity ratio has been relatively low, indicating manageable leverage, the equity ratio has declined due to increasing liabilities. The company has maintained a positive stockholders' equity, which is crucial for future growth. However, the increasing total liabilities are a potential risk that could affect financial stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Fluence Energy's cash flow statement presents challenges, particularly with negative free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates inefficiencies in converting profits into cash. Despite significant financing cash flow, the company struggles with free cash flow growth, which could impact its ability to invest in future growth opportunities.

TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.33B	2.70B	2.22B	1.20B	680.77M	561.32M
	Gross Profit
304.30M	341.08M	140.96M	-62.35M	-69.14M	7.92M
	EBIT
-17.21M	26.62M	-102.77M	-285.80M	-158.74M	-40.81M
	EBITDA
-9.13M	41.10M	-101.94M	-278.69M	-153.63M	-37.27M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-23.88M	22.72M	-69.62M	-289.18M	-162.00M	-46.71M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
568.62M	448.69M	345.90M	467.65M	36.83M	93.81M
	Total Assets
2.27B	1.90B	1.35B	1.75B	717.67M	364.02M
	Total Debt
389.91M	30.36M	50.56M	2.74M	100.00M	0.00
	Net Debt
-178.71M	-418.32M	-295.33M	-354.55M	63.17M	-93.81M
	Total Liabilities
1.77B	1.30B	795.82M	1.12B	773.87M	381.25M
	Stockholders Equity
388.17M	472.10M	402.35M	435.83M	-279.59M	-117.10M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-286.63M	60.71M	-124.15M	-290.32M	-269.56M	-15.80M
	Operating Cash Flow
-268.68M	71.23M	-111.93M	-282.38M	-265.27M	-14.02M
	Investing Cash Flow
-24.24M	-18.98M	94.44M	-148.42M	-22.29M	18.22M
	Financing Cash Flow
357.07M	-8.68M	52.59M	817.05M	231.13M	2.50M

Fluence Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price4.97

Price Trends

50DMA

4.53

Positive

100DMA

6.34

Negative

200DMA

12.92

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.01

Positive

RSI

53.21

Neutral

STOCH

67.52

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.94, above the 50-day MA of 4.53, and below the 200-day MA of 12.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FLNC.

Fluence Energy Risk Analysis

Fluence Energy disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fluence Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Fluence Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RNW	65 Neutral	$2.54B	101.16	2.00%	―	-1.77%	-41.65%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.54B	10.40	4.24%	4.63%	4.14%	-13.05%
NRGV	52 Neutral	$134.39M	―	-82.96%	―	-86.10%	-49.68%
NXXT	51 Neutral	$355.49M	―	-9999.00%	―	52.34%	10.37%
FLNC	51 Neutral	$905.62M	236.42	-5.96%	―	6.08%	52.48%
SMR	42 Neutral	$9.83B	―	-32.34%	―	62.41%	-85.81%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FLNC

Fluence Energy

4.94

-17.67

-78.15%

SMR

NuScale Power

41.60

33.15

392.31%

RNW

ReNew Energy Global

6.80

0.50

7.94%

NRGV

Energy Vault Holdings

0.86

-0.30

-25.86%

NXXT

NextNRG

2.98

-1.90

-38.93%

Fluence Energy Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Fluence Energy Announces Leadership Change in Product Management

Neutral

Jan 10, 2025

Rebecca Boll, Senior Vice President and Chief Product Officer, will resign from Fluence Energy effective January 31, 2025, to pursue other opportunities. The company has started searching for her replacement, with interim leadership from Mark Berger and Freddy Reyes Falck, ensuring continuity in product management.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.