Energy Vault Holdings (NRGV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $788.61M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.43
• Revenue Growth: -35.99%
• EPS Growth: -46.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 158
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 167,790,010
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,245,704
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,541,568
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.40
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 42.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.22
• 1Y Price Target: $3.73
• Price Target Upside: -18.91% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $261.01M

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(8.70% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (severe losses, negative ROE, and negative operating cash flow) and loss-driven valuation (negative P/E, no dividend). Offsetting these are strong technical uptrend signals and an upbeat earnings call featuring rapid revenue growth, improving margins, a growing backlog, and maintained full-year guidance.

Positive Factors

Rapid Revenue Growth

Sustained, large YoY revenue acceleration reflects successful project execution and rising commercial traction in utility-scale storage. Durable revenue growth from signed projects supports scaling operations, improves bargaining power with suppliers, and underpins longer-term margin improvement as fixed costs are leveraged.

Large Backlog and Pipeline

A nearly $1B backlog and multi‑billion dollar pipeline give multi‑period revenue visibility and justify continued resource allocation. This structural backlog supports predictable near‑term revenue and provides a runway to scale Asset Vault deployments and recurring services revenue.

Asset Vault & Vertical integration

The Asset Vault ‘own & operate’ strategy and $300M preferred equity commitment shift the business toward asset ownership and recurring cash flows. Vertical integration (develop/build/operate) can improve lifetime returns, capture O&M revenue, and create durable competitive differentiation in storage projects.

Negative Factors

Deep Unprofitability

Very large negative margins and returns indicate the company still fails to convert revenues into profits, a structural concern that limits reinvestment capacity and shareholder value creation. Without sustained margin recovery, the business remains dependent on external capital to scale.

Negative Operating Cash Flow

Persistent negative operating cash flow and declining free‑cash‑flow growth create a structural cash burn. This constrains the company’s ability to self‑fund projects, raises refinancing needs, and makes long‑term execution contingent on continued access to external capital markets or partner financing.

Reliance on Convertible Debt and Equity Raises

Ongoing use of convertible debentures and recent equity offerings signal structural dependence on dilutive financing to fund growth. Covenants, amortization schedules and conversion mechanics can constrain flexibility, create refinancing risk, and dilute investors as projects scale but cash generation lags.

Energy Vault Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. develops and sells energy storage solutions. The company offers gravity-based storage systems, including EVx Platform, a scalable, modular product line starting from 40-megawatt hour to multi-gigawatt hours to address grid resiliency needs in shorter durations; Energy Vault Resiliency Center, a scalable, gigawatt hour scale product line designed to address grid resiliency needs to manage energy disruptive climate events; and Energy Vault solutions. Its solutions allow utilities, independent power producers, and large energy users to manage their power portfolios and efficiently dispatch power. Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. is based in Westlake Village, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Energy Vault generates revenue through various channels, primarily by selling its energy storage systems to utility companies, renewable energy developers, and large-scale energy consumers. The company also earns income from long-term service agreements for maintenance and operation of their systems. Additionally, Energy Vault may benefit from strategic partnerships with energy providers and government contracts aimed at enhancing grid stability. The increasing demand for energy storage solutions, driven by the global transition to renewable energy and the need for reliable energy infrastructure, further supports its revenue model.

Energy Vault Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (62.11% TTM) and improving gross margin (20.23% TTM), but financial health is constrained by very large losses (net margin -279.38%, EBIT margin -269.66%), deeply negative ROE (-113.15%), and negative operating cash flow (-$33.9M TTM) with weakening free-cash-flow growth (-11% TTM).

Income Statement

Energy Vault Holdings shows a significant revenue growth rate of 62.11% TTM, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit margins of -279.38% and EBIT margins of -269.66% TTM. The gross profit margin has improved to 20.23% TTM, but the overall negative margins highlight ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39 TTM suggests moderate leverage, which is manageable. However, the return on equity is significantly negative at -113.15% TTM, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio stands at 28.57% TTM, reflecting a stable capital structure despite profitability issues.

Cash Flow

Energy Vault Holdings faces cash flow challenges, with a negative operating cash flow of -$33.9 million TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 2.69 TTM, indicating some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate of -11.00% TTM and operating cash flow coverage ratio of -0.22 TTM highlight ongoing cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	83.84M	46.20M	341.54M	145.88M	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	18.99M	6.19M	17.53M	59.30M	-2.44M	0.00
EBITDA	-128.80M	-134.56M	-97.86M	-69.38M	-28.89M	-14.45M
Net Income	-144.71M	-135.75M	-98.44M	-78.30M	-31.34M	-24.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	281.88M	183.89M	340.75M	416.71M	125.29M	30.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	32.70M	30.02M	109.92M	203.04M	105.13M	10.05M
Total Debt	62.46M	1.36M	1.86M	1.55M	1.36M	2.16M
Total Liabilities	201.33M	57.63M	116.96M	129.00M	193.96M	7.97M
Stockholders Equity	80.58M	126.32M	223.79M	287.71M	-68.67M	22.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-75.10M	-114.71M	-123.09M	-25.66M	-22.24M	-18.45M
Operating Cash Flow	-33.90M	-55.86M	-92.66M	-23.35M	-22.07M	-16.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-43.44M	-58.74M	-42.54M	-13.32M	-1.17M	-1.75M
Financing Cash Flow	62.61M	-252.00K	-5.48M	217.77M	116.38M	15.64M

Energy Vault Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 4.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NRGV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.40, below the 50-day MA of 4.72, and above the 200-day MA of 2.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NRGV.

Energy Vault Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
RNW	61 Neutral	$1.97B	18.93	7.64%	―	42.09%	219.69%
NRGV	57 Neutral	$788.61M	-4.84	-111.44%	―	-35.99%	-46.51%
FLNC	56 Neutral	$5.65B	-72.17	-10.72%	―	-16.15%	-324.40%
NXXT	47 Neutral	$124.98M	-0.35	―	―	146.01%	63.18%
WAVE	45 Neutral	$29.50M	-8.34	-54.43%	―	-40.99%	-46.52%
VGAS	43 Neutral	$85.54M	-5.32	-21.33%	―	―	23.66%

Energy Vault Holdings Corporate Events

Energy Vault Begins Construction of Texas SOSA Energy Center

On January 5, 2026, Energy Vault announced that it began construction in the fourth quarter of 2025 on the SOSA Energy Center, a 150 MW/300 MWh battery energy storage system in Madison County, Texas, within the ERCOT North market, marking the fourth project in its Asset Vault portfolio and the first to enter construction under its Asset Vault investment platform backed by a $300 million preferred equity commitment from Orion Infrastructure Capital. The project, acquired from Savion, a Shell subsidiary, is targeted to reach commercial operation by the second quarter of 2027 and is expected to generate more than $350 million in total revenue over its technical life, while contributing to over 340 MW of capacity under operation and construction; alongside this, Energy Vault reported a roughly 65% increase in cash and liquidity in the fourth quarter of 2025 to more than $100 million, reinforcing its ability to self-perform EPC and long-term services, deepen its strategic presence in the Texas ERCOT market, and advance its vertically integrated, recurring-revenue “Own & Operate” strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Energy Vault Adds Third Tranche of Convertible Debenture Financing

On December 30, 2025, Energy Vault Holdings amended its existing securities purchase agreement with YA II PN, Ltd. to add a third tranche of $15 million in senior unsecured convertible debentures, bringing the total debenture financing under the arrangement to $65 million following earlier closings on September 22 and December 16, 2025. The new debentures, issued at 98% of principal and maturing on August 30, 2027 with a 7% coupon, carry a fixed conversion price of $7.41 per share and a structured monthly amortization schedule beginning January 26, 2026, subject to market-price-based adjustments, floor-price protections, and caps on ownership and share issuance; proceeds are earmarked for working capital and energy storage project development, while the amended covenants restrict additional indebtedness, variable-rate transactions, and use of the at-the-market equity program, underscoring the company’s continued reliance on private convertible debt financing to fund its storage pipeline and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.

Energy Vault raises additional $20 million via debentures

On December 16, 2025, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. completed a subsequent closing under its previously disclosed September 22, 2025 Securities Purchase Agreement with YA II PN, Ltd., issuing an additional $20 million in senior unsecured convertible debentures, bringing the total raised under the arrangement to $50 million. The new debentures, issued at 97% of principal with a 7% annual interest rate and maturing on March 22, 2027, feature a fixed conversion price of $7.53 per share, detailed installment payment mechanics beginning January 26, 2026, caps on the investor’s ownership and conversions, and enhanced payment obligations upon specified amortization events, with net proceeds earmarked to strengthen working capital and support the development, construction and growth of Energy Vault’s energy storage projects through a privately placed, unregistered offering.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRGV) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Vault Holdings stock, see the NRGV Stock Forecast page.