tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
ReNew Energy Global (RNW)
NASDAQ:RNW

ReNew Energy Global (RNW) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
293 Followers

Top Page

RNW

ReNew Energy Global

(NASDAQ:RNW)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 55 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(0.18% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven by improving operations and a constructive earnings update (raised guidance, refinancing progress, and capital recycling), but tempered by high leverage and negative free cash flow that increase funding risk. Technicals add pressure due to a clear downtrend, while valuation is moderately supportive based on the P/E.
Positive Factors
Portfolio scale & BESS inclusion
A near-term ~2 GW increase in operating capacity and a 19.2 GW portfolio including ~1.5 GW of BESS meaningfully raise stable generation and dispatch flexibility. Scale plus storage reduces variability, improves contracted energy delivery and strengthens long-term contracted cash flows and project economics.
Lower-cost, longer-dated financing
Securing an oversubscribed $600m bond at materially lower coupon and longer tenor reduces near-term refinancing pressure and interest expense. This structurally improves funding flexibility, extends maturities, and broadens access to global institutional capital to support multi-year deleveraging plans.
Manufacturing outperformance & vertical integration
A strong manufacturing arm that produced ~3 GW and contributed meaningful EBITDA diversifies earnings, shortens equipment supply chains, and lowers build costs for new projects. Durable internal module/cell capacity supports execution, margin resilience and internalisation of key inputs over coming years.
Negative Factors
Very elevated consolidated leverage
Sustained high leverage materially narrows financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to rate rises, project delays, or asset underperformance. Multi-year deleveraging is required to normalize risk; until achieved, refinancing needs and covenant stress remain a persistent structural overhang on returns and strategy.
Negative free cash flow & funding reliance
Persistent negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash generation indicates heavy capex and reinvestment. The business structurally depends on asset sales, external bonds and partner funding to service holding-company obligations, raising execution and refinancing risk until FCF sustainably turns positive.
Transmission curtailment and wind underperformance
Grid transmission delays, partial curtailment and underperforming wind PLFs directly reduce realized generation and contracted revenues. These structural grid and resource risks increase volatility of asset cash flows, complicate planning, and require portfolio rebalancing (toward solar+BESS) to restore predictable long-term returns.

ReNew Energy Global (RNW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ReNew Energy Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionReNew Energy Global Plc generates power through non-conventional and renewable energy sources in India. The company operates through Wind Power and Solar Power segments. It develops, builds, owns, and operates utility scale wind and solar energy projects, as well as distributed solar energy projects that generate energy for commercial and industrial customers. The company also provides engineering, procurement, and construction services; operation and maintenance services; consultancy services; and sells renewable energy certificates. As of March 31, 2022, its portfolio consisted of 10.69 GW of wind and solar energy projects, hydro, firm power projects, and distributed solar energy projects, of which 7.57 GW projects were commissioned and 3.12 GW were committed. ReNew Energy Global Plc was founded in 2011 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyReNew Energy Global generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity produced from its renewable energy projects. The company signs long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with various customers, including state-owned utilities, private corporations, and large industrial clients, which provide a stable and predictable income. Additionally, RNW benefits from government incentives, such as renewable energy certificates and tax benefits, which enhance its profitability. The company may also engage in project financing and partnerships with other energy companies or financial institutions, further diversifying its revenue streams and supporting capital-intensive projects.

ReNew Energy Global Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 16, 2026
(Q3-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call was constructive: the company showed strong top-line and EBITDA growth, meaningful improvements in financing cost and capital recycling, manufacturing outperformance, upgraded guidance and clear de-risking actions (solar + BESS pivot). Key risks remain transmission/curtailment exposure, wind underperformance and elevated consolidated leverage that management intends to reduce over multiple years. ESG leadership and large C&I customer relationships are additional positives offsetting the sector execution challenges.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Operating Capacity and Portfolio Growth
Operating capacity increased from 10.7 GW to 11.8 GW (a 19% or ~2 GW increase over the last 12 months). Overall portfolio stands at 19.2 GW inclusive of ~1.5 GW of BESS.
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Revenue Growth
Adjusted EBITDA increased 31% to INR 74.8 billion for the first 9 months. Revenue for the first 9 months increased 48% year-over-year driven by higher operating megawatts and manufacturing contribution.
Profit After Tax Improvement
Profit after tax rose more than sixfold year-over-year for the 9-month period (exact figure not provided), indicating a meaningful jump in profitability.
Raised Lower-Cost Financing
Issued a $600 million bond at 6.5% (down from prior 7.95%), with >$2 billion demand; this refinancing is expected to save approximately $9 million of annual interest expense and is the first bond issued via GIFT City.
Capital Recycling and Liquidity Generation
Sold 300 MW of solar assets this quarter (600 MW sold year-to-date), raising $275 million via capital recycling (including $100 million from BII for manufacturing).
Manufacturing Business Outperformance
Manufacturing contributed INR 10.8 billion to adjusted EBITDA in the first 9 months. Modules produced ~3 GW YTD (12+ MW/day capacity), cell facility produced ~1.4 GW YTD (5.5+ MW/day), and 2.6+ GW of modules sold YTD (~1.5 GW externally).
Upgraded Guidance and Project Execution Targets
Raised the lower end of adjusted EBITDA guidance by ~3% to INR 90–93 billion for the fiscal year. Project construction guidance narrowed and increased to 1.8–2.4 GW (from 1.6 GW lower end). Expected cash flow to equity of INR 14–17 billion.
De-risking Portfolio via Solar + BESS Reconfiguration
Reduced committed wind capacity from 2.5 GW to ~850 MW and increased solar + BESS mix to lower CapEx, reduce execution risk and improve predictability. Reconfiguration projected to reduce build-out CapEx by ~INR 60 billion while reducing EBITDA by only ~INR 6.5–6.8 billion, improving EV/EBITDA economics.
Leverage Trending Down
Headline leverage declined from 8.2x (Dec 2024) to ~7x at present, 6.7x excluding JV contributions; trailing 12-month leverage for the operating portfolio is ~5.6x, with a target to reduce headline leverage toward ~5.5x over time.
ESG Leadership and Recognition
LSEG score 90.41/100 (top quartile, ranked 2nd of 346 sector companies, +7% YoY). CDP A for Climate Change and A‑ for Water (top 4% globally). Achieved water-positive certification for 2 sites and 18.2% reduction in Scope 1 & 2 emissions vs baseline; carbon-neutral verification for the fifth consecutive year.
C&I Segment Scale and High-Quality Customers
C&I portfolio expanded ~30% year-over-year and is among the largest in the country; 50% of the C&I portfolio is contracted with major global tech customers such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google.
Negative Updates
Transmission Delays and Curtailment Risk
Industry-wide transmission build-out delays and curtailment remain material headwinds. Some assets experienced curtailment; when on temporary GNA (T-GNA) projects can face partial curtailment (typical observed range ~10–20% on affected days).
T-GNA Exposure and Partial Compensation
At the start of the last quarter ~1 GW was on T-GNA; ~600 MW moved to permanent GNA and current T-GNA exposure is ~400–500 MW. Only ~30–35% of combined losses from curtailment have been compensated due to permanent GNA coverage.
Wind Performance and Portfolio Repricing
Wind P50/PLFs have been lower than expected over recent years, causing volatility in returns and prompting a reduction of wind in the committed portfolio from 2.5 GW to ~850 MW.
Leverage Still Elevated at Consolidated Level
Although leverage is trending down, headline consolidated leverage remains elevated (~7x headline, ~6.7x excluding JV partner contributions) and management targets a multi-year program to reduce it to ~5.5x (expected between 2028–2030).
Short-Term Manufacturing Margin Pressure
Manufacturing saw a temporary lull in margins and inventory build-up during the monsoon season, though margins recovered in the current quarter.
Run-rate EBITDA Visibility Limited for New Assets
Many recently commissioned assets have been operational for less than one year, so trailing 12-month EBITDA may understate the true run-rate EBITDA of the portfolio until assets mature.
Company Guidance
ReNew raised its FY2026 guidance, now targeting adjusted EBITDA of INR 90–93 billion (lower end up ~3%) with the manufacturing business expected to contribute INR 11–13 billion (manufacturing delivered INR 10.8 billion in the first 9 months and has a 900 MW external order book); project execution guidance was increased to 1.8–2.4 GW to be constructed this fiscal (up from a 1.6 GW lower-end), with operating capacity at 11.8 GW and a total portfolio of 19.2 GW (including ~1.5 GW of BESS); projected cash flow to equity is INR 14–17 billion; the company is targeting meaningful deleveraging (headline leverage ~6.7–7x today, operating-portfolio leverage ~5.5–5.6x) to under 5.5x via asset recycling (selling ~1.6 GW) and capital recycling — which has already generated $275 million from 600 MW sold YTD and $100 million from BII — alongside a $600 million bond at 6.5% (down from 7.95%), saving ~ $9 million of annual interest.

ReNew Energy Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability and operating cash flow have improved, supported by exceptionally high gross/EBITDA margins and a return to positive net income. However, very high leverage (debt-to-equity ~6.2x), negative free cash flow, and modest cash coverage of debt elevate refinancing/funding risk and cap financial flexibility.
Income Statement
64
Positive
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth is strong (+5.6%) and profitability has improved materially versus prior loss years, with positive net income and solid operating profitability. Gross and EBITDA margins are exceptionally high, supporting earnings resilience. The main weakness is that net profit margin remains relatively modest (about 6.7%) versus the elevated operating margins, suggesting material below-the-line costs (e.g., financing/depreciation) that can limit bottom-line scalability.
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Leverage is the key constraint: total debt is very large relative to equity, with debt-to-equity around 6.2x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and consistently high across the annual periods shown. While equity has grown and return on equity is now positive (~7.2% TTM), the capital structure leaves limited room for shocks (rate increases, refinancing, project delays) and makes shareholder returns more sensitive to funding conditions.
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
Operating cash flow is consistently positive and sizable, indicating the core business is generating cash. However, free cash flow is negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and most recent years, and it swung sharply lower (TTM free cash flow growth deeply negative), pointing to heavy ongoing investment needs. Cash generation also covers only a modest portion of debt levels (coverage ratio below 0.40 in TTM), which elevates reliance on external funding.
BreakdownTTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue129.66B97.06B81.32B78.22B59.35B48.19B
Gross Profit100.99B88.47B77.47B71.27B59.02B47.76B
EBITDA92.34B81.08B68.75B57.45B37.98B42.63B
Net Income11.97B3.81B3.40B-4.82B-16.08B-7.82B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.03T959.80B873.93B746.49B641.34B492.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments95.26B81.34B79.67B80.63B79.27B47.24B
Total Debt776.52B732.28B655.66B536.58B447.71B351.65B
Total Liabilities891.68B828.69B752.24B628.09B514.97B427.31B
Stockholders Equity123.55B112.60B105.22B106.85B118.44B62.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-14.17B-26.09B-84.91B-24.70B-47.44B7.60B
Operating Cash Flow70.45B67.56B68.93B66.67B42.39B32.08B
Investing Cash Flow-65.62B-74.16B-162.53B-79.99B-124.75B-17.41B
Financing Cash Flow18.31B19.98B82.42B23.02B90.04B-7.08B

ReNew Energy Global Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price5.49
Price Trends
50DMA
5.53
Negative
100DMA
6.58
Negative
200DMA
6.95
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Negative
RSI
52.64
Neutral
STOCH
66.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RNW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.39, below the 50-day MA of 5.53, and below the 200-day MA of 6.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RNW.

ReNew Energy Global Risk Analysis

ReNew Energy Global disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ReNew Energy Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Impairment of our long-term assets may have an adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition. Q1, 2023
2.
Material weaknesses in our internal controls over financial reporting could materially and adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations and our ability to operate our business Q1, 2023
3.
Any downgrading of our bond ratings could adversely impact our business and results of operations. Q1, 2023

ReNew Energy Global Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$4.84B37.356.96%0.99%45.09%50.54%
69
Neutral
$7.80B28.1213.20%5.29%2.54%124.89%
69
Neutral
$7.80B26.4013.20%5.60%2.54%124.89%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
55
Neutral
$2.01B13.5811.20%42.09%219.69%
55
Neutral
$7.81B-6.50-38.17%3.84%5.93%-39.88%
46
Neutral
$3.03B-36.61-13.02%-16.15%-324.40%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RNW
ReNew Energy Global
5.52
-0.88
-13.75%
CWEN
Clearway Energy
38.68
12.85
49.75%
CWEN.A
Clearway Energy
36.29
12.01
49.46%
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable
43.46
16.33
60.19%
FLNC
Fluence Energy
16.49
10.30
166.40%
EE
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A
42.44
14.81
53.60%

ReNew Energy Global Corporate Events

ReNew Energy Global Cuts Funding Costs With Landmark $600 Million GIFT City Green Bond
Jan 26, 2026

On January 22, 2026, ReNew Energy Global raised USD 600 million via an oversubscribed offering of 6.5% senior secured green bonds due 2031, issued out of its GIFT City-based subsidiary ReNew Treasury IFSC Private Limited and guaranteed by ReNew and ReNew Private Limited. The transaction, placed with institutional investors across Asia, the UK and the US and attracting peak demand of more than USD 2 billion, is notable as the first international bond issuance from a GIFT City issuer and is structured with a security package similar to ReNew’s 7.95% green bonds due 2026. Proceeds will primarily be used to redeem USD 525 million of those higher‑coupon Diamond II bonds, making the deal broadly debt-neutral while cutting the interest rate from 7.95% to 6.5% and extending maturity from 2026 to 2031, thereby lowering funding costs and strengthening ReNew’s long-term financial profile and access to diversified global capital pools.

The most recent analyst rating on (RNW) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ReNew Energy Global stock, see the RNW Stock Forecast page.

ReNew Energy Global Receives Proceeds From $191 Million Solar Project Sale
Dec 29, 2025

On December 29, 2025, ReNew Energy Global Plc said it had received most of the cash proceeds from the previously announced sale of a solar project first disclosed on October 8, 2025, a transaction with an enterprise value of about $191 million including net current assets. The deal will bring in roughly $97 million of cash to ReNew, of which about $82 million has already been collected and the remaining $15 million is expected within around two weeks following prepayment of existing project finance lenders, with the company planning to use the funds to repay existing holding-company debt and strengthen its balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (RNW) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ReNew Energy Global stock, see the RNW Stock Forecast page.

ReNew Energy Global Faces Setback as Masdar Withdraws from Acquisition Consortium
Dec 15, 2025

On December 15, 2025, ReNew Energy Global announced that the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company PJSC-Masdar has withdrawn from a consortium that was planning to acquire ReNew’s share capital not already owned by the consortium members. This withdrawal has led to the termination of discussions regarding the proposed transaction, despite previous progress and increased offer prices. The company’s leadership, including CEO Sumant Sinha, remains optimistic about ReNew’s future, emphasizing strong business performance and growth prospects. The company reported a 22% increase in commissioned capacity and a 24% rise in Adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, with revised guidance for FY26. ReNew continues to focus on capitalizing on opportunities in the Indian market and plans to provide further updates in February 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (RNW) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ReNew Energy Global stock, see the RNW Stock Forecast page.

ReNew Energy Global Sells Gadag Transmission Project to IndiGrid
Dec 2, 2025

On December 2, 2025, ReNew Energy Global Plc announced the sale of its Gadag Transmission Limited project to IndiGrid Infrastructure Trust for approximately US$ 41 million, excluding cash and working capital adjustments. This transaction, which includes an earn-out related to Change-In-Law provisions, will result in a cash inflow of about US$ 15 million after debt transfer, subject to regulatory approvals, and marks a strategic move in ReNew’s asset management and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (RNW) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ReNew Energy Global stock, see the RNW Stock Forecast page.

ReNew Energy Global Nears Acquisition Deal with Consortium
Dec 1, 2025

ReNew Energy Global Plc has announced significant progress in negotiations for a potential acquisition by a consortium including Masdar, CPP Investments, ADIA, and its CEO Sumant Sinha. The consortium aims to acquire all shares not already owned by its members for $8.15 per share. The transaction agreement is nearing finalization, with an expected completion by mid-December. However, there is no guarantee that a binding offer will be issued as planned, and further updates will be provided in the coming weeks.

The most recent analyst rating on (RNW) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ReNew Energy Global stock, see the RNW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026