CommVault Systems (CVLT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.60B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 893.92K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 42.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: 22.02%
• EPS Growth: -55.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,300
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 1.17
• Shares Outstanding: 43,974,390
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,788,577
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 893,925
• PEG Ratio: -1.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.95
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 31.80
• 1Y Price Target: $140.33
• Price Target Upside: 71.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.91
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.16B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $95.00 ▲(15.90% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a strong, guidance-raising earnings call, but is held back by clearly bearish technical momentum and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E with no dividend support).

Positive Factors

Subscription and ARR growth

Rapid subscription and SaaS ARR growth materially shifts revenue toward recurring, higher‑visibility streams. A larger recurring mix improves cash flow predictability, upsell economics and customer lifetime value, supporting durable revenue expansion and scaling operating leverage.

High and improving gross margins

Sustained ~81% gross margins reflect a software-centric cost structure and efficient delivery of cloud/offering mix. Durable high margins provide margin headroom to invest in R&D, partnerships and sales while supporting operating margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation over years.

Strong free cash flow profile and guidance

Firm free cash flow guidance and historical strong FCF growth support capital allocation flexibility. Reliable FCF lets management fund buybacks, reinvest in product development and absorb one‑time costs, underpinning long‑term balance sheet resilience and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

High leverage

A 4.32 debt/equity ratio indicates material reliance on debt financing, which reduces financial flexibility. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and interest risk, constraining the company’s ability to invest opportunistically or sustain buybacks if cash flows weaken over the medium term.

ARR mix and ASP variability

A shift toward many lower‑ASP SaaS landings reduces ARR per new customer and increases quarter‑to‑quarter ARR variability. Over time this can dilute reported ARR growth rates and slow revenue per account expansion, complicating forecasting and margin cadence during the hybrid transition.

CFO departure and finance leadership transition

Loss of a CFO and an interim Office of the CFO raises execution risk in financial reporting, capital allocation and investor communication. Extended transition can impede strategic finance initiatives like debt management and buyback execution, affecting medium‑term capital strategy stability.

CommVault Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commvault Systems, Inc. provides data protection and information management software applications and related services in the United States and internationally. The company offers Commvault Backup and Recovery, a backup and recovery solution; Commvault Disaster Recovery, a replication and disaster recovery solution; and Commvault Complete Data Protection, a data protection solution. It also provides Commvault HyperScale X, an easy-to-deploy scale-out solution; Commvault Distributed Storage Platform that offers software-defined storage built on a hyperscale architecture; Metallic Cloud Storage service, which is the easy button to adopt secure and scalable cloud storage; and Metallic Software-as-a-Service. In addition, the company provides technology and business consulting, education, and remote managed services. Further, it sells appliances that integrate the software with hardware for use in a range of business needs and use cases; and offers professional and customer support services that include data management-as-a-service under the Metallic brand. The company sells its products and services directly through its sales force, and indirectly through its network of distributors, value-added resellers, systems integrators, corporate resellers, and original equipment manufacturers to large enterprises, small and medium sized businesses, and government agencies. It supports customers in a range of industries, including banking, insurance and financial services, government, healthcare, pharmaceuticals and medical services, technology, legal, manufacturing, utilities, and energy. Commvault Systems, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

CommVault generates revenue primarily through the sale of software licenses, subscriptions, and associated maintenance and support services. The company's revenue model consists of both perpetual licenses and software-as-a-service (SaaS) offerings, allowing customers to choose the deployment method that best fits their needs. Key revenue streams include recurring subscription fees from cloud-based services, one-time payments for software licenses, and ongoing support contracts. Additionally, CommVault has established strategic partnerships with major cloud service providers, such as Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services (AWS), which enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. These partnerships not only generate additional revenue through joint marketing efforts and bundled services but also contribute to customer acquisition and retention by providing integrated solutions.

CommVault Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid, led by strong cash flow generation (Cash Flow Score 80) and healthy gross margins, but financial risk is elevated due to high leverage (Balance Sheet Score 60; debt-to-equity 4.32) and net margins remain modest (Income Statement Score 75; net margin 7.32%).

Income Statement

CommVault Systems shows a solid revenue growth rate of 4.08% TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin remains strong at 81.55%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 7.32%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, indicating stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.32 TTM, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. The return on equity is robust at 27.01%, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

CommVault Systems exhibits a healthy free cash flow growth rate of 10.47% TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.40, showing adequate cash flow relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.97, reflecting efficient conversion of income into cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	995.62M	839.25M	784.59M	769.59M	723.47M
Gross Profit	816.58M	687.64M	649.19M	655.73M	614.10M
EBITDA	90.66M	90.56M	-4.57M	54.47M	-5.36M
Net Income	76.11M	168.91M	-35.77M	33.62M	-30.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.12B	943.91M	792.60M	827.92M	914.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	302.10M	312.75M	287.78M	267.51M	397.24M
Total Debt	10.95M	12.09M	12.78M	16.05M	22.89M
Total Liabilities	793.14M	665.83M	606.50M	572.09M	520.17M
Stockholders Equity	325.12M	278.08M	186.10M	255.83M	394.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	203.63M	199.71M	167.05M	173.27M	115.78M
Operating Cash Flow	207.38M	203.80M	170.29M	177.18M	123.95M
Investing Cash Flow	-70.40M	-5.52M	-5.29M	-24.44M	35.47M
Financing Cash Flow	-147.82M	-170.58M	-135.58M	-276.09M	-74.74M

CommVault Systems Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 81.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.89, below the 50-day MA of 118.64, and below the 200-day MA of 158.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -11.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.48 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.31 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CVLT.

CommVault Systems Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GTLB	68 Neutral	$5.48B	-125.35	-5.17%	―	27.35%	18.18%
PEGA	67 Neutral	$6.66B	27.02	51.96%	0.16%	17.00%	120.21%
SRAD	67 Neutral	$5.50B	49.94	9.79%	―	18.99%	66.43%
ESTC	65 Neutral	$6.36B	-58.45	-12.84%	―	16.98%	-265.85%
CVLT	64 Neutral	$3.60B	42.48	34.48%	―	22.02%	-55.25%
MNDY	63 Neutral	$5.32B	85.47	5.81%	―	28.62%	186.67%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

CommVault Systems Corporate Events

CommVault Systems CFO Resigns, CEO to Oversee Transition

On December 4, 2025, Commvault announced the resignation of its Chief Financial Officer, Jennifer DiRico, effective at the end of the calendar year. The company has begun searching for a new CFO, and in the interim, President and CEO Sanjay Mirchandani will oversee a newly established Office of the CFO. DiRico’s departure is not due to any disagreements with the company. Commvault maintains its market position in cyber resilience and reports no changes to its financial outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVLT) stock is a Buy with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CommVault Systems stock, see the CVLT Stock Forecast page.