CommVault Systems (CVLT)
NASDAQ:CVLT
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CommVault Systems
(NASDAQ:CVLT)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$95.00
▲(0.82% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/28/26
The score is driven by strong cash flow and upbeat FY27 guidance (ARR/revenue growth, margin expansion, and continued high free cash flow), but is held back by materially higher leverage and a very thin equity cushion in TTM. Technicals are mixed with longer-term trend weakness, and valuation is stretched with a high P/E and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, high free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds buybacks, R&D and go‑to‑market investment while supporting operations through cycles. FCF tracking net income (~0.96) indicates earnings quality and repeatable cash conversion that underpins capital allocation over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Materially higher leverage and thin equity cushion
A step‑up in debt with a minimal equity base materially weakens the balance sheet and reduces financial flexibility. Elevated leverage increases refinancing and interest risks, constrains capacity for opportunistic M&A or sustained buybacks, and makes results more sensitive to cyclical swings despite strong cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, high free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: it funds buybacks, R&D and go‑to‑market investment while supporting operations through cycles. FCF tracking net income (~0.96) indicates earnings quality and repeatable cash conversion that underpins capital allocation over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
CommVault Systems (CVLT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.35B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.5
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth18.89%
EPS Growth-7.44%
CountryUS
Employees3,300
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.28
Shares Outstanding43,974,390
10 Day Avg. Volume1,564,668
30 Day Avg. Volume1,197,459
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.49
Price to Book (P/B)457.07
Price to Sales (P/S)2.89
P/FCF Ratio14.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda38.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$129.88Price Target Upside37.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)5.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.31B
CommVault Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides data protection and information management software applications and related services in the United States and internationally. The company offers Commvault Backup and Recovery, a backup and recovery solution; Comm...
How the Company Makes Money
Commvault primarily makes money by licensing and subscribing its data protection and cyber resilience software and related services to business and government customers.
Key revenue streams include:
- Subscription / term software revenue: Custome...
CommVault Systems Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong growth and operational momentum: robust ARR and SaaS expansion, record free cash flow, improving margins, rising multiproduct adoption, and clear FY2027 guidance. Challenges cited — hardware/memory cost pressures, quarter-to-quarter mix variability, reduced disclosure granularity, and early-stage monetization of AI-related offerings — are notable but do not materially undermine the strong financial and commercial progress. Overall, the positives (accelerating SaaS growth, cash generation, expanding product adoption and clear guidance) outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Subscription ARR Growth
Subscription ARR rose 27% year-over-year to $989 million in Q4, reflecting durable subscription momentum and the company’s shift to a subscription-led model.
Negative Updates
Hardware/Memory Supply-Chain and Cost Headwinds
Management acknowledged higher memory and component pricing and supply constraints in the market; while not material to Q4, these dynamics create potential project timing and budget pressures and were incorporated into guidance assumptions.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Subscription ARR Growth
Subscription ARR rose 27% year-over-year to $989 million in Q4, reflecting durable subscription momentum and the company’s shift to a subscription-led model.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Commvault’s FY‑27 guidance centers on four annual “north‑star” metrics (subscription ARR, free cash flow, subscription revenue and non‑GAAP EBIT) and includes specific quarterly and full‑year targets: Q1 subscription revenue $263–265M (≈15% YoY at midpoint), total revenue ≈$310M, non‑GAAP EBIT margin ≈19% and diluted share count ≈42M; full‑year subscription ARR growth 18–19% to ~$1.20–1.21B (implying roughly $190M of net new subscription ARR), SaaS ARR expected to exceed $500M by year‑end, subscription revenue $1.115–1.125B (≈15% YoY at midpoint), total revenue $1.30–1.31B, non‑GAAP EBIT margin ~20.5%, free cash flow $250–260M (weighted to H2), diluted share count ≈42M, a refreshed $250M buyback authorization, and an intent to allocate roughly 60% of annual FCF to repurchases.CommVault Systems Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.18B | 995.62M | 839.25M | 784.59M | 769.59M |
| Gross Profit | 950.22M | 816.58M | 687.64M | 649.19M | 655.73M |
| EBITDA | 115.95M | 90.66M | 90.56M | -4.57M | 54.47M |
| Net Income | 70.66M | 76.11M | 168.91M | -35.77M | 33.62M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.89B | 1.12B | 943.91M | 792.60M | 827.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 899.99M | 302.10M | 312.75M | 287.78M | 267.51M |
| Total Debt | 917.50M | 10.95M | 12.09M | 12.78M | 16.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.88B | 793.14M | 665.83M | 606.50M | 572.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.49M | 325.12M | 278.08M | 186.10M | 255.83M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 237.15M | 203.63M | 199.71M | 167.05M | 173.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 244.68M | 207.38M | 203.80M | 170.29M | 177.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.45M | -70.40M | -5.52M | -5.29M | -24.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 345.30M | -147.82M | -170.58M | -135.58M | -276.09M |
CommVault Systems Technical Analysis
Neutral
94.23
Price Trends
84.40
Positive
101.52
Negative
135.92
Negative
Market Momentum
2.26
Negative
69.32
Neutral
93.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 94.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 82.76, above the 50-day MA of 84.40, and below the 200-day MA of 135.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CVLT.
CommVault Systems Risk Analysis
CommVault Systems disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CommVault Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CommVault Systems Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $6.11B | 54.82 | 50.21% | 0.16% | 3.50% | 75.14% | |
69 Neutral | $4.07B | -168.63 | 7.31% | ― | 24.38% | 25.18% | |
67 Neutral | $3.37B | 63.93 | 9.88% | ― | 26.75% | 256.36% | |
65 Neutral | $4.35B | 48.48 | 35.35% | ― | 18.89% | -7.44% | |
65 Neutral | $3.77B | -103.64 | -6.24% | ― | 25.81% | -2156.00% | |
63 Neutral | $4.81B | 224.68 | -9.44% | ― | 17.29% | 38.72% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
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CommVault Systems Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Commvault Announces Key Leadership Changes to Drive Growth
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Commvault appointed long-time executive Gary Merrill as Chief Financial Officer, shifting him from his role as Chief Commercial Officer, and named board member Geoff Haydon as President of Customer and Field Operations, with Hay...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.