CommVault Systems (CVLT)
NASDAQ:CVLT
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CommVault Systems
(NASDAQ:CVLT)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$83.00
▼(-6.61% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/28/26
The score is held back primarily by the sharp increase in balance-sheet leverage and clear technical weakness (price far below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include solid profitability and cash generation, and a notably positive earnings call with raised guidance and margin outlook; valuation remains demanding with a high P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Recurring subscription & ARR growth
Rapid, durable growth in subscription and SaaS ARR signals a structural shift to recurring revenue. A larger recurring base improves revenue visibility, supports higher customer lifetime value through upsell, and reduces cyclicality versus one‑time software sales over a multi‑quarter horizon.
Negative Factors
Elevated financial leverage
Substantially higher leverage materially raises financial risk and reduces balance sheet flexibility. Heavy debt burdens amplify earnings volatility risk, constrain capital allocation in downturns, and increase susceptibility to rising interest costs over a multi‑quarter horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring subscription & ARR growth
Rapid, durable growth in subscription and SaaS ARR signals a structural shift to recurring revenue. A larger recurring base improves revenue visibility, supports higher customer lifetime value through upsell, and reduces cyclicality versus one‑time software sales over a multi‑quarter horizon.
Read all positive factors
CommVault Systems (CVLT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.91B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)983.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)77.7
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth22.02%
EPS Growth-55.25%
CountryUS
Employees3,300
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding43,974,390
10 Day Avg. Volume620,316
30 Day Avg. Volume983,876
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.66
Price to Book (P/B)21.28
Price to Sales (P/S)6.95
P/FCF Ratio33.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda34.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$141.58Price Target Upside59.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)4.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.31B
CommVault Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides data protection and information management software applications and related services in the United States and internationally. The company offers Commvault Backup and Recovery, a backup and recovery solution; Comm...
How the Company Makes Money
Commvault primarily makes money by licensing and subscribing its data protection and cyber resilience software and related services to business and government customers.
Key revenue streams include:
- Subscription / term software revenue: Custome...
CommVault Systems Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed strong, broad-based growth across subscription, SaaS, and term software revenue with meaningful margin expansion and raised full-year guidance. Product momentum (Cloud Unity, identity resilience, partnerships, patents, AWS recognition) and record customer acquisition reinforce a positive growth and innovation story. Headwinds were primarily timing- and mix-related: Q3 free cash flow weakness driven by late quarter deal closings and an extra payroll cycle, a quarter-to-quarter ARR impact from a higher mix of lower‑ASP SaaS landings and longer-duration software deals, and modest near-term NRR variability. Management provided explanations and maintained constructive guidance, framing variability as manageable and consistent with the company’s hybrid go-to-market transition.Positive Updates
Strong Subscription and SaaS Growth
Subscription revenue grew 30% year-over-year to $206M; subscription ARR increased 28% to $941M; SaaS ARR rose 40% to $364M. Subscription ARR now represents 87% of total ARR (up from 83% a year ago).
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Pressure in Q3
Q3 free cash flow was $2M, pressured by timing of receivable collections (more deals closed late in quarter) and an additional payroll cycle in the U.S. and Canada; management expects normalization in Q4 but Q3 cash conversion was weak.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Subscription and SaaS Growth
Subscription revenue grew 30% year-over-year to $206M; subscription ARR increased 28% to $941M; SaaS ARR rose 40% to $364M. Subscription ARR now represents 87% of total ARR (up from 83% a year ago).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Commvault provided Q4 and updated FY‑2026 guidance: for Q4 FY26 it expects subscription revenue of $203–$207M (about 18% growth at the midpoint), total revenue of $305–$308M (about 11% growth at the midpoint), consolidated gross margin around 81%, and non‑GAAP EBIT margin around 19%; for full‑year FY26 it now forecasts constant‑currency total ARR growth of ~18% with subscription ARR growth of ~24% (ARR guidance uses FX rates as of 03/31/2025), raised subscription revenue to $764–$768M (≈30% growth at the midpoint) and total revenue to $1,177–$1,180M (≈18% growth at the midpoint), expects gross margins of 81–81.5%, non‑GAAP EBIT margins of 19–20%, and free cash flow of $215–$220M (which includes $12–$15M of one‑time cost‑optimization payments); the Board also recommitted buyback authorization to $250M.CommVault Systems Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.15B | 995.62M | 839.25M | 784.59M | 769.59M | 723.47M |
| Gross Profit | 934.15M | 816.58M | 687.64M | 649.19M | 655.73M | 614.10M |
| EBITDA | 110.41M | 90.66M | 90.56M | -4.57M | 54.47M | -5.36M |
| Net Income | 87.00M | 76.11M | 168.91M | -35.77M | 33.62M | -30.95M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.04B | 1.12B | 943.91M | 792.60M | 827.92M | 914.20M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.03B | 302.10M | 312.75M | 287.78M | 267.51M | 397.24M |
| Total Debt | 950.47M | 10.95M | 12.09M | 12.78M | 16.05M | 22.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.82B | 793.14M | 665.83M | 606.50M | 572.09M | 520.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 216.73M | 325.12M | 278.08M | 186.10M | 255.83M | 394.03M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 181.48M | 203.63M | 199.71M | 167.05M | 173.27M | 115.78M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 189.45M | 207.38M | 203.80M | 170.29M | 177.18M | 123.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.86M | -70.40M | -5.52M | -5.29M | -24.44M | 35.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 573.36M | -147.82M | -170.58M | -135.58M | -276.09M | -74.74M |
CommVault Systems Technical Analysis
Neutral
88.87
Price Trends
83.67
Negative
103.41
Negative
138.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.04
Negative
47.35
Neutral
62.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 88.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.25, above the 50-day MA of 83.67, and below the 200-day MA of 138.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CVLT.
CommVault Systems Risk Analysis
CommVault Systems disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CommVault Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CommVault Systems Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $6.66B | 25.92 | 60.07% | 0.16% | 17.00% | 120.21% | |
70 Outperform | $4.82B | 63.09 | 10.31% | ― | 18.99% | 66.43% | |
67 Neutral | $3.01B | 63.93 | 9.88% | ― | 28.62% | 186.67% | |
65 Neutral | $3.30B | -103.64 | -6.24% | ― | 27.35% | 18.18% | |
63 Neutral | $4.48B | 224.68 | -9.44% | ― | 16.98% | -265.85% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $3.91B | 77.74 | 31.15% | ― | 22.02% | -55.25% |
* Technology Sector Average
CVLT
CommVault Systems
88.87
-64.66
-42.12%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.