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Commvault Systems (CVLT)
NASDAQ:CVLT
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CommVault Systems (CVLT) AI Stock Analysis

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CVLT

CommVault Systems

(NASDAQ:CVLT)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$164.00
▲(15.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/28/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and high-margin operations, reinforced by upbeat FY2027 guidance and continued repurchase emphasis. Offsetting these positives are elevated balance-sheet risk from sharply higher leverage and a premium valuation (high P/E), which together cap the overall score despite favorable technical trend signals.
Positive Factors
High cash generation & margins
Commvault’s operating and free cash flow track closely with net income, and free cash flow grew in the latest TTM. Combined with very high gross margins (~80%+), this durable cash generation funds buybacks, reinvestment, and debt service, reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and thin equity
Leverage has risen sharply with an unusually small equity base, inflating ROE but materially increasing financial risk. A thin equity cushion reduces flexibility for acquisitions or downturns and raises refinancing and covenant risks if operating cash flow weakens, a meaningful medium-term constraint.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High cash generation & margins
Commvault’s operating and free cash flow track closely with net income, and free cash flow grew in the latest TTM. Combined with very high gross margins (~80%+), this durable cash generation funds buybacks, reinvestment, and debt service, reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Read all positive factors

CommVault Systems (CVLT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CommVault Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides a cyber resilience platform for protecting and recovering data and cloud-native applications in the Americas and internationally. The company offers Operational Recovery, which provides backup, verifiable recovery,...
How the Company Makes Money
Commvault makes money primarily by licensing its software and providing related maintenance/support and services, with a growing emphasis on subscription-based offerings. The key revenue streams typically include: (1) Subscription and term-based s...

CommVault Systems Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q4-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong growth and operational momentum: robust ARR and SaaS expansion, record free cash flow, improving margins, rising multiproduct adoption, and clear FY2027 guidance. Challenges cited — hardware/memory cost pressures, quarter-to-quarter mix variability, reduced disclosure granularity, and early-stage monetization of AI-related offerings — are notable but do not materially undermine the strong financial and commercial progress. Overall, the positives (accelerating SaaS growth, cash generation, expanding product adoption and clear guidance) outweigh the headwinds.
Positive Updates
Strong Subscription ARR Growth
Subscription ARR rose 27% year-over-year to $989 million in Q4, reflecting durable subscription momentum and the company’s shift to a subscription-led model.
Negative Updates
Hardware/Memory Supply-Chain and Cost Headwinds
Management acknowledged higher memory and component pricing and supply constraints in the market; while not material to Q4, these dynamics create potential project timing and budget pressures and were incorporated into guidance assumptions.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Subscription ARR Growth
Subscription ARR rose 27% year-over-year to $989 million in Q4, reflecting durable subscription momentum and the company’s shift to a subscription-led model.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Commvault’s FY‑27 guidance centers on four annual “north‑star” metrics (subscription ARR, free cash flow, subscription revenue and non‑GAAP EBIT) and includes specific quarterly and full‑year targets: Q1 subscription revenue $263–265M (≈15% YoY at midpoint), total revenue ≈$310M, non‑GAAP EBIT margin ≈19% and diluted share count ≈42M; full‑year subscription ARR growth 18–19% to ~$1.20–1.21B (implying roughly $190M of net new subscription ARR), SaaS ARR expected to exceed $500M by year‑end, subscription revenue $1.115–1.125B (≈15% YoY at midpoint), total revenue $1.30–1.31B, non‑GAAP EBIT margin ~20.5%, free cash flow $250–260M (weighted to H2), diluted share count ≈42M, a refreshed $250M buyback authorization, and an intent to allocate roughly 60% of annual FCF to repurchases.

CommVault Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong operating profile with very high gross margins (~80%+) and consistently robust operating/free cash flow (cash conversion near 1x vs. net income). However, the balance sheet is a key risk: leverage increased sharply with a very thin equity cushion, and net margin remains modest (~6%) with historical profitability volatility, reducing predictability.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.22B1.18B995.62M839.25M784.59M769.59M
Gross Profit983.33M950.22M816.58M687.64M649.19M655.73M
EBITDA104.54M106.27M90.66M90.56M-4.57M54.47M
Net Income68.30M70.66M76.11M168.91M-35.77M33.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.89B1.89B1.12B943.91M792.60M827.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments929.84M899.99M302.10M312.75M287.78M267.51M
Total Debt917.65M917.50M10.95M12.09M12.78M16.05M
Total Liabilities1.84B1.88B793.14M665.83M606.50M572.09M
Stockholders Equity52.05M7.49M325.12M278.08M186.10M255.83M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow258.45M237.15M203.63M199.71M167.05M173.27M
Operating Cash Flow264.67M244.68M207.38M203.80M170.29M177.18M
Investing Cash Flow-40.74M-5.45M-70.40M-5.52M-5.29M-24.44M
Financing Cash Flow352.00M345.30M-147.82M-170.58M-135.58M-276.09M

CommVault Systems Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price142.31
Price Trends
50DMA
131.91
Negative
100DMA
111.06
Positive
200DMA
114.68
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.44
Positive
RSI
41.60
Neutral
STOCH
15.05
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 142.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 140.47, above the 50-day MA of 131.91, and above the 200-day MA of 114.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CVLT.

CommVault Systems Risk Analysis

CommVault Systems disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CommVault Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CommVault Systems Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$6.84B18.5637.43%17.26%
71
Outperform
$3.68B37.2310.69%25.42%125.90%
69
Neutral
$4.88B74.5656.13%15.47%-13.79%
69
Neutral
$4.48B54.087.31%24.38%25.18%
68
Neutral
$5.02B16.0848.90%0.45%3.60%48.92%
68
Neutral
$5.83B-228.69-2.66%24.90%-233.01%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CVLT
CommVault Systems
124.93
-61.57
-33.01%
PEGA
Pegasystems
31.37
-26.96
-46.22%
ESTC
Elastic
68.74
-11.79
-14.64%
MNDY
Monday.com
88.92
-160.83
-64.40%
SRAD
Sportradar Group AG
12.34
-17.19
-58.21%
GTLB
Gitlab
35.59
-8.56
-19.40%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 28, 2026