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CommVault Systems (CVLT)
NASDAQ:CVLT

CommVault Systems (CVLT) AI Stock Analysis

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CommVault Systems

(NASDAQ:CVLT)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$192.00
▲(12.62%Upside)
CommVault Systems' strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlight its growth potential and strategic positioning. However, technical analysis suggests cautious momentum, and valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio detract from the overall score. The expanded credit facility provides additional financial flexibility, supporting future growth.
Positive Factors
Cyber Resilience Market Position
Commvault is in a strong position in the expanding cyber-resilience market, driven by rising data volumes and increasing cyber threats.
Financial Performance
Commvault reported healthy top- and bottom-line beats in its fiscal fourth quarter and provided guidance above consensus across all key metrics.
Subscription and SaaS Growth
Strong subscription/SaaS growth is expected to continue, benefiting from increased multiproduct adoption, new logo acquisition, and customer expansion.
Negative Factors
ARR Growth Perception
ARR growth includes some inorganic contribution, which may affect perceived momentum.
Cash Flow Concerns
Free cash flow margins were guided below consensus due to higher expected cash taxes.

CommVault Systems (CVLT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

CommVault Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCommVault Systems, Inc. is a publicly traded data protection and information management software company that provides solutions to help businesses manage, protect, and use their data. Operating primarily in the information technology sector, the company offers a range of products and services, including backup and recovery, cloud and infrastructure management, and data insights and governance solutions. CommVault's offerings are designed to enable organizations to protect their data, manage storage, and leverage insights across complex hybrid environments.
How the Company Makes MoneyCommVault Systems makes money primarily through the sale of software licenses, subscriptions, and associated services. The company's revenue model includes perpetual software licenses, which provide customers with the right to use the software indefinitely, and subscription-based licenses, which offer customers access to the software for a specified period. In addition to software sales, CommVault generates revenue from maintenance and support services, which provide ongoing updates and customer support, and professional services, which include consulting, design, and implementation services tailored to clients' specific needs. Key revenue streams include direct sales to enterprises, channel partnerships with resellers and system integrators, and strategic alliances with cloud service providers to integrate CommVault's solutions into broader cloud offerings. These partnerships and integrated solutions are significant contributors to the company's earnings, as they expand market reach and enhance the value proposition of CommVault's product suite.

CommVault Systems Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.73%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth, strategic customer wins, and effective expansion of product and partner ecosystems. Despite concerns about the macro environment and flat operating margin guidance, the company's overall performance and outlook appear robust.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
Total revenue increased by 23% to $275 million. Subscription revenue grew 45% to $173 million. Total ARR improved 21% to $930 million, and SaaS ARR jumped 68% to $281 million.
Strong Performance Across Regions
Q4 saw strong performance across geographic regions, with EMEA having a particularly strong quarter.
Strategic Customer Wins
Notable customer wins included American Tower, Cinemark Holdings, Janus International, McGraw Hill, and Blue Origin, reflecting strong tailwinds in the industry.
Product and Partner Ecosystem Expansion
Commvault extended its partner ecosystem with integrations with leading security players like Akamai, Google Threat Intelligence, and Splunk. Marketplace transactions grew nearly 50% quarter on quarter and over 250% year on year.
High SaaS Net Dollar Retention Rate
The SaaS net dollar retention rate remained steady at 127%, driven by upsell and cross-sell opportunities.
Profitability and Cash Flow
Fiscal Q4 gross margins were 83.1%, and Q4 free cash flow was $76 million, with full-year free cash flow of $204 million.
Negative Updates
Macro Environment Uncertainty
There are some concerns about the macro environment and potential changes in demand trends, although no significant changes were noted between Q4 and Q1.
Flat Operating Margin Guidance
Operating margin guidance remains flat year over year, which may imply a balance between growth and investment.
Company Guidance
In the Q4 fiscal year 2025 earnings call for Commvault Systems, Inc., the company reported a 23% year-over-year increase in total revenue, reaching $275 million. Subscription revenue saw a significant jump of 45% to $173 million, while total Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) improved by 21% to $930 million. Notably, SaaS ARR surged by 68% to $281 million. The company achieved a Rule of 40 metric of 41 for the full fiscal year, highlighting a balance of growth and profitability. For fiscal year 2026, Commvault anticipates subscription revenue to grow by 24%, with total revenue expected to increase by 14%, reaching between $1.13 billion and $1.14 billion. The guidance reflects a focus on leveraging strong secular tailwinds related to cyber resilience, continuous business operations, and expanding partnerships, projecting confidence in capturing a significant market opportunity estimated at $24 billion.

CommVault Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CommVault Systems shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and high profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, though ROE and EBIT margin have room for improvement. Overall, the company is financially well-positioned within the Software - Application industry.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
CommVault Systems has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a notable increase of 18.63% from 2024 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains strong at 82%, indicating effective cost management. Despite a dip in EBIT margin from 8.98% in 2024 to 7.41% in 2025, the company maintains a solid net profit margin of 7.64%. Overall, the income statement reflects strong revenue growth and profitability, though EBIT margin could be improved.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet shows a healthy equity ratio of 29.07%, indicating a strong capital structure. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.03, reflecting minimal leverage and financial risk. However, return on equity (ROE) has decreased from 60.73% in 2024 to 23.41% in 2025, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating profits from equity. Despite this, the low leverage and solid equity base provide financial stability.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
CommVault's cash flow is robust, with operating cash flow exceeding net income, resulting in a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.73. Free cash flow has grown by 2% from 2024 to 2025, indicating sustainable cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 2.68, underscoring the company's ability to generate cash relative to its earnings. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong cash generation and prudent cash management.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue995.62M839.25M784.59M769.59M723.47M
Gross Profit816.58M687.64M649.19M655.73M614.10M
EBITDA89.71M90.44M-4.68M54.44M-5.36M
Net Income76.11M168.91M-35.77M33.62M-30.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.12B943.91M782.57M816.08M904.17M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments302.10M312.75M287.78M267.51M397.24M
Total Debt10.95M12.09M12.78M16.05M22.89M
Total Liabilities793.14M665.83M596.48M560.25M510.14M
Stockholders Equity325.12M278.08M186.10M255.83M394.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow203.63M199.71M167.05M173.27M115.78M
Operating Cash Flow207.38M203.80M170.29M177.18M123.95M
Investing Cash Flow-70.40M-5.52M-5.29M-24.44M35.47M
Financing Cash Flow-147.82M-170.58M-135.58M-276.09M-74.74M

CommVault Systems Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price170.49
Price Trends
50DMA
176.16
Negative
100DMA
169.60
Positive
200DMA
164.58
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.68
Positive
RSI
40.29
Neutral
STOCH
28.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 170.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 180.20, below the 50-day MA of 176.16, and above the 200-day MA of 164.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CVLT.

CommVault Systems Risk Analysis

CommVault Systems disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CommVault Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

CommVault Systems Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$9.01B51.2139.29%0.23%14.29%151.35%
78
Outperform
$6.20B13.0758.14%23.21%
72
Outperform
$7.59B101.0625.23%18.63%-55.09%
GTGTM
71
Outperform
$3.30B81.832.23%-3.12%-37.59%
UU
68
Neutral
$9.98B-14.15%-16.74%49.75%
63
Neutral
$4.80B482.280.97%14.52%
49
Neutral
C$2.91B2.04-80.91%2.67%12.55%-24.32%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CVLT
CommVault Systems
170.49
46.51
37.51%
PEGA
Pegasystems
52.66
23.46
80.34%
BILL
Bill.com Holdings
46.56
-6.12
-11.62%
GTM
ZoomInfo Technologies
10.04
-2.23
-18.17%
U
Unity Software
24.28
8.57
54.55%
CWAN
Clearwater Analytics Holdings
21.77
2.75
14.46%

CommVault Systems Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
CommVault Systems Expands Credit Facility to $300 Million
Positive
Apr 15, 2025

On April 15, 2025, Commvault Systems, Inc. refinanced its existing $100 million senior secured revolving credit facility and established a new five-year senior secured revolving credit facility, increasing its total borrowing capacity to $300 million. This strategic financial maneuver, facilitated by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., aims to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and operational capacity, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025