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CommVault Systems
(NASDAQ:CVLT)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$164.00
▲(15.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/28/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and high-margin operations, reinforced by upbeat FY2027 guidance and continued repurchase emphasis. Offsetting these positives are elevated balance-sheet risk from sharply higher leverage and a premium valuation (high P/E), which together cap the overall score despite favorable technical trend signals.
Positive Factors
High cash generation & margins
Commvault’s operating and free cash flow track closely with net income, and free cash flow grew in the latest TTM. Combined with very high gross margins (~80%+), this durable cash generation funds buybacks, reinvestment, and debt service, reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and thin equity
Leverage has risen sharply with an unusually small equity base, inflating ROE but materially increasing financial risk. A thin equity cushion reduces flexibility for acquisitions or downturns and raises refinancing and covenant risks if operating cash flow weakens, a meaningful medium-term constraint.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High cash generation & margins
Commvault’s operating and free cash flow track closely with net income, and free cash flow grew in the latest TTM. Combined with very high gross margins (~80%+), this durable cash generation funds buybacks, reinvestment, and debt service, reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
CommVault Systems (CVLT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)755.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)74.6
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth15.47%
EPS Growth-13.79%
CountryUS
Employees3,300
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.58
Shares Outstanding41,444,565
10 Day Avg. Volume536,738
30 Day Avg. Volume755,659
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.48
Price to Book (P/B)457.07
Price to Sales (P/S)2.89
P/FCF Ratio14.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$161.67Price Target Upside13.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)5.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.30B
CommVault Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides a cyber resilience platform for protecting and recovering data and cloud-native applications in the Americas and internationally. The company offers Operational Recovery, which provides backup, verifiable recovery,...
How the Company Makes Money
Commvault makes money primarily by licensing its software and providing related maintenance/support and services, with a growing emphasis on subscription-based offerings. The key revenue streams typically include: (1) Subscription and term-based s...
CommVault Systems Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong growth and operational momentum: robust ARR and SaaS expansion, record free cash flow, improving margins, rising multiproduct adoption, and clear FY2027 guidance. Challenges cited — hardware/memory cost pressures, quarter-to-quarter mix variability, reduced disclosure granularity, and early-stage monetization of AI-related offerings — are notable but do not materially undermine the strong financial and commercial progress. Overall, the positives (accelerating SaaS growth, cash generation, expanding product adoption and clear guidance) outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Subscription ARR Growth
Subscription ARR rose 27% year-over-year to $989 million in Q4, reflecting durable subscription momentum and the company’s shift to a subscription-led model.
Negative Updates
Hardware/Memory Supply-Chain and Cost Headwinds
Management acknowledged higher memory and component pricing and supply constraints in the market; while not material to Q4, these dynamics create potential project timing and budget pressures and were incorporated into guidance assumptions.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Subscription ARR Growth
Subscription ARR rose 27% year-over-year to $989 million in Q4, reflecting durable subscription momentum and the company’s shift to a subscription-led model.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Commvault’s FY‑27 guidance centers on four annual “north‑star” metrics (subscription ARR, free cash flow, subscription revenue and non‑GAAP EBIT) and includes specific quarterly and full‑year targets: Q1 subscription revenue $263–265M (≈15% YoY at midpoint), total revenue ≈$310M, non‑GAAP EBIT margin ≈19% and diluted share count ≈42M; full‑year subscription ARR growth 18–19% to ~$1.20–1.21B (implying roughly $190M of net new subscription ARR), SaaS ARR expected to exceed $500M by year‑end, subscription revenue $1.115–1.125B (≈15% YoY at midpoint), total revenue $1.30–1.31B, non‑GAAP EBIT margin ~20.5%, free cash flow $250–260M (weighted to H2), diluted share count ≈42M, a refreshed $250M buyback authorization, and an intent to allocate roughly 60% of annual FCF to repurchases.CommVault Systems Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.22B | 1.18B | 995.62M | 839.25M | 784.59M | 769.59M |
| Gross Profit | 983.33M | 950.22M | 816.58M | 687.64M | 649.19M | 655.73M |
| EBITDA | 104.54M | 106.27M | 90.66M | 90.56M | -4.57M | 54.47M |
| Net Income | 68.30M | 70.66M | 76.11M | 168.91M | -35.77M | 33.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.89B | 1.89B | 1.12B | 943.91M | 792.60M | 827.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 929.84M | 899.99M | 302.10M | 312.75M | 287.78M | 267.51M |
| Total Debt | 917.65M | 917.50M | 10.95M | 12.09M | 12.78M | 16.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.84B | 1.88B | 793.14M | 665.83M | 606.50M | 572.09M |
| Stockholders Equity | 52.05M | 7.49M | 325.12M | 278.08M | 186.10M | 255.83M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 258.45M | 237.15M | 203.63M | 199.71M | 167.05M | 173.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 264.67M | 244.68M | 207.38M | 203.80M | 170.29M | 177.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -40.74M | -5.45M | -70.40M | -5.52M | -5.29M | -24.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 352.00M | 345.30M | -147.82M | -170.58M | -135.58M | -276.09M |
CommVault Systems Technical Analysis
Neutral
142.31
Price Trends
131.91
Negative
111.06
Positive
114.68
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.44
Positive
41.60
Neutral
15.05
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 142.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 140.47, above the 50-day MA of 131.91, and above the 200-day MA of 114.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CVLT.
CommVault Systems Risk Analysis
CommVault Systems disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CommVault Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CommVault Systems Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $6.84B | 18.56 | 37.43% | ― | 17.26% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $3.68B | 37.23 | 10.69% | ― | 25.42% | 125.90% | |
69 Neutral | $4.88B | 74.56 | 56.13% | ― | 15.47% | -13.79% | |
69 Neutral | $4.48B | 54.08 | 7.31% | ― | 24.38% | 25.18% | |
68 Neutral | $5.02B | 16.08 | 48.90% | 0.45% | 3.60% | 48.92% | |
68 Neutral | $5.83B | -228.69 | -2.66% | ― | 24.90% | -233.01% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.