Cavco Industries (CVCO)
NASDAQ:CVCO
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Cavco Industries
(NASDAQ:CVCO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$559.00
▲(8.06% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/02/26
Score is driven by strong financial performance (especially the very low leverage balance sheet and solid cash generation) but is held back by very weak technicals (price below major moving averages and negative MACD). Earnings-call takeaways are mixed—credible synergy and buyback support offset by margin/earnings pressure and soft industry demand—while valuation appears mid-range.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage
An extremely low debt-to-equity (~0.03) gives Cavco durable financial flexibility: it can fund operating volatility, absorb cyclical demand shocks, pursue integration or capex, and support buybacks without raising leverage. This materially lowers financial risk over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Factory-built margin compression
Gross margin erosion in the core factory-built business (down ~1.9 p.p. YoY) reflects retail/wholesale price compression and input/tariff pressure. Given product mix and channel dynamics, margin recovery may take multiple quarters and could constrain earnings durability if cost pass-throughs remain limited.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage
An extremely low debt-to-equity (~0.03) gives Cavco durable financial flexibility: it can fund operating volatility, absorb cyclical demand shocks, pursue integration or capex, and support buybacks without raising leverage. This materially lowers financial risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Cavco Industries (CVCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.01B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)161.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.9
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth15.81%
EPS Growth37.89%
CountryUS
Employees6,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.58
Shares Outstanding7,761,163
10 Day Avg. Volume161,974
30 Day Avg. Volume161,147
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.88
Price to Book (P/B)3.94
Price to Sales (P/S)2.08
P/FCF Ratio26.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$575.00Price Target Upside11.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)28.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.50B
Cavco Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cavco Industries, Inc. designs, produces, and retails manufactured homes primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services. The company markets its manufactured homes under the Cavco, Fleetwo...
How the Company Makes Money
Cavco makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling factory-built homes. The core revenue stream is home sales: Cavco builds manufactured and modular homes in its facilities and sells them at wholesale to independent dealers, builders/develop...
Cavco Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: revenue growth and integration progress from the American Homestar acquisition, meaningful synergy prospects (> $10M annualized) and strong financial services margin expansion were offset by declines in EPS and net income, gross margin compression in factory-built housing, higher SG&A and a higher tax rate driven by acquisition-related and phasing tax-credit effects. Management emphasizes backlog stability, operational readiness for spring demand and ongoing share repurchases, but near-term margin and volume headwinds (including tariffs and industry shipment softness in Oct–Nov) temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth Driven by Acquisition
Consolidated net revenue of $581.0M, up $59.0M or 11.3% year-over-year; Factory-Built Housing revenue $558.5M, up $57.6M or 11.5% YoY. American Homestar contributed ~$42M sequentially to revenue.
Negative Updates
Earnings and Profit Declines
Diluted EPS fell to $5.58 from $6.90 in prior-year quarter (-19.1%); net income decreased to $44.1M from $56.5M (-22.0%); pretax profit down 16.9% to $57.6M from $69.3M.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth Driven by Acquisition
Consolidated net revenue of $581.0M, up $59.0M or 11.3% year-over-year; Factory-Built Housing revenue $558.5M, up $57.6M or 11.5% YoY. American Homestar contributed ~$42M sequentially to revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized integration-driven cost savings and a cautious-but-optimistic operational stance: the American Homestar deal now yields tangible, measurable synergies of more than $10 million annually with roughly half (≈$5M annual run‑rate) already in place entering Q4 (Allison noted that equates to roughly a $1.25M Q4 P&L uplift if the $5M is annualized), integration costs should decline going forward, and additional strategic benefits (product/plant optimization, company‑store fill‑ins) are expected but not quantified; they reiterated they will continue share buybacks (Q3 repurchases $44M; ~$98M authorization remaining) while preserving liquidity (unrestricted cash ≈$225M; cash & restricted ≈$242.5M), keep production rates steady to stay positioned for spring (used ~1 week of backlog in Q3, ending backlog ~4–6 weeks), and called out key Q3 metrics to frame guidance: net revenue $581M (Factory‑Built $558.5M; Financial Services $22.5M), consolidated gross margin 23.4% (Factory‑Built 21.7%; Financial Services 65.2%), SG&A $81.4M (14% of revenue), pretax profit $57.6M, EPS $5.58, a Q3 tax rate of 23.5% (management suggested subtracting ~1% of nonrecurring items for modeling), ASP ≈$107k (up ≈$1k sequential, aided by Homestar), and a Q3 tariff impact to COGS of roughly $3M.Cavco Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
93
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.20B | 2.02B | 1.79B | 2.14B | 1.63B | 1.11B |
| Gross Profit | 515.95M | 465.59M | 426.90M | 554.93M | 408.75M | 238.98M |
| EBITDA | 239.13M | 230.85M | 219.35M | 324.58M | 223.71M | 103.97M |
| Net Income | 184.42M | 171.04M | 157.82M | 240.55M | 197.70M | 76.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.47B | 1.41B | 1.35B | 1.31B | 1.15B | 1.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 259.16M | 376.07M | 370.96M | 286.40M | 264.24M | 264.24M |
| Total Debt | 68.13M | 45.14M | 35.15M | 36.56M | 24.78M | 24.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 382.98M | 342.06M | 320.75M | 330.47M | 323.69M | 323.69M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.09B | 1.06B | 1.03B | 976.29M | 830.46M | 830.46M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 205.26M | 157.07M | 207.26M | 211.59M | 125.57M | 125.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 238.76M | 178.50M | 224.68M | 255.69M | 144.22M | 144.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -209.83M | -23.95M | -31.71M | -129.34M | -159.10M | -159.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -165.09M | -147.95M | -107.71M | -102.20M | -65.09M | -65.09M |
Cavco Industries Technical Analysis
Negative
517.30
Price Trends
526.10
Negative
568.20
Negative
536.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.70
Negative
54.49
Neutral
88.24
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 517.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 485.69, below the 50-day MA of 526.10, and below the 200-day MA of 536.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -8.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CVCO.
Cavco Industries Risk Analysis
Cavco Industries disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cavco Industries reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cavco Industries Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $2.90B | 8.76 | 17.70% | ― | 6.62% | -1.90% | |
74 Outperform | $4.38B | 22.24 | 13.58% | ― | 12.14% | 48.68% | |
71 Outperform | $3.20B | 8.49 | 12.99% | ― | 4.77% | -9.30% | |
71 Outperform | $3.99B | 11.14 | 7.29% | ― | -16.60% | -29.85% | |
66 Neutral | $4.01B | 26.87 | 17.14% | ― | 15.81% | 37.89% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $3.23B | 29.80 | 9.01% | 1.76% | -10.01% | -27.81% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CVCO
Cavco Industries
517.30
41.83
8.80%
KBH
KB Home
51.60
1.45
2.88%
MHO
M/I Homes
124.12
16.95
15.82%
SKY
Champion Homes
79.12
-3.50
-4.24%
TPH
Tri Pointe
46.82
17.31
58.66%
GRBK
Green Brick Partners
67.28
10.46
18.41%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.