Carnival Corporation & plc (CUK)
NYSE:CUK
Top Page
Carnival
(NYSE:CUK)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
▲(6.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is driven primarily by a strong operating recovery and constructive earnings-call outlook (record demand indicators and a new buyback plan), partially offset by balance-sheet leverage risk. The setup is further held back by weak technical momentum and a high P/E with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Carnival's materially improved operating cash flow (~$6.6B TTM) and rising free cash flow (~$3.0B TTM) increase durable financial flexibility. Reliable cash generation supports gradual de‑levering, reinvestment in ships/destinations, and sustainable capital returns under PROPEL, lowering refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Despite improvement, Carnival's absolute debt levels remain substantial for a cyclical leisure operator. Elevated leverage reduces financial flexibility, raises sensitivity to higher interest rates or demand softness, and constrains the pace of reinvestment or distributions if cash flow weakens, making sustained de‑levering essential.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Carnival's materially improved operating cash flow (~$6.6B TTM) and rising free cash flow (~$3.0B TTM) increase durable financial flexibility. Reliable cash generation supports gradual de‑levering, reinvestment in ships/destinations, and sustainable capital returns under PROPEL, lowering refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Carnival (CUK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$35.45B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.2
Beta (1Y)1.71
Revenue Growth6.39%
EPS Growth39.66%
CountryUS
Employees115,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding146,139,360
10 Day Avg. Volume3,364,730
30 Day Avg. Volume3,307,207
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)2.77
Price to Sales (P/S)1.28
P/FCF Ratio13.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.39
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.86B
Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cr...
How the Company Makes Money
Carnival makes money primarily by selling cruise vacations and related travel products across its cruise brands. The core revenue stream is passenger ticket revenue (cruise fares), which can vary by itinerary, ship, cabin category, sailing length,...
Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum and multiple record Q1 metrics (revenues, yields, bookings, deposits, net income), plus an ambitious multi-year value creation plan (PROPEL) including buybacks and dividend growth. These positive developments were tempered by a substantial and volatile fuel headwind, near-term EPS pressure, rising cruise costs (albeit better than guidance), and geopolitical uncertainty affecting certain itineraries. On balance, management reiterated confidence in demand, cost discipline and long-term targets while acknowledging short-term fuel-driven headwinds.Positive Updates
Record First Quarter Results
Delivered record Q1 revenues, net yields, operating income, EBITDA and customer deposits. Net income was $275 million, more than 55% higher year-over-year and exceeded December guidance by $40 million ($0.03 per share).
Negative Updates
Significant Fuel Headwind and Price Volatility
Management cites a material fuel headwind: roughly $500 million impact referenced and March guidance includes a $0.38 per share headwind from higher fuel. A 10% change in fuel cost per metric ton for the remainder of the year affects results by $160 million or $0.11 per share. Guidance assumptions are Brent $90 (Apr–May), $85 (Q3), $80 (Q4).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First Quarter Results
Delivered record Q1 revenues, net yields, operating income, EBITDA and customer deposits. Net income was $275 million, more than 55% higher year-over-year and exceeded December guidance by $40 million ($0.03 per share).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Carnival's March guidance calls for full-year EPS of $2.21 (incorporating a $0.07 per‑share Q1 operational beat and $0.11 per‑share total operational improvement for 2026, offset by a $0.38 per‑share fuel headwind), with net yield growth of ~2.75% (Q1 yields +2.7%; normalized full‑year yield ≈3.25% excluding redeploy/loyalty impacts) and cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD up ~3.1% (Q1 cruise costs w/o fuel +5.3%; normalized ≈2.3%); management assumed Brent at ~$90/bbl for Apr–May, $85/bbl for Q3 and $80/bbl for Q4 (a 10% change in fuel cost/mt ≈ $160M or $0.11/sh); Q1 results included net income $275M (↑>55% YoY), fuel consumption down 4.7% YoY, record customer deposits of ~ $8B (≈+10% YoY), current‑year bookings +10% YoY and ~85% of 2026 booked, and the company reiterated a ~$7B EBITDA baseline while launching PROPEL targets to 2029: ROIC >16%, EPS growth >50% vs 2025, net debt/EBITDA ~2.75x, return >40% of cash‑from‑ops (~$14B) to shareholders (starting with a $2.5B buyback), >$15B reinvestment, GHG intensity reduction >25% vs 2019, and only 3 ships entering service during the PROPEL period.Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 26.98B | 26.62B | 25.02B | 21.59B | 12.17B | 1.91B |
| Gross Profit | 10.13B | 7.88B | 9.38B | 7.28B | 412.00M | -2.75B |
| EBITDA | 7.23B | 6.91B | 6.23B | 4.37B | -2.20B | -5.69B |
| Net Income | 3.10B | 2.76B | 1.92B | -74.00M | -6.09B | -9.50B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 51.57B | 51.69B | 49.06B | 49.12B | 51.70B | 53.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.42B | 1.93B | 1.21B | 2.42B | 4.03B | 9.14B |
| Total Debt | 26.61B | 27.99B | 28.88B | 31.89B | 35.88B | 34.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 38.52B | 39.40B | 39.81B | 42.24B | 44.64B | 41.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.03B | 12.28B | 9.25B | 6.88B | 7.06B | 12.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.99B | 2.61B | 1.30B | 997.00M | -6.61B | -7.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.56B | 6.22B | 5.92B | 4.28B | -1.67B | -4.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.31B | -3.32B | -4.54B | -2.81B | -4.77B | -3.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.67B | -2.19B | -2.58B | -5.09B | 3.58B | 6.95B |
Carnival Technical Analysis
Neutral
23.47
Price Trends
28.47
Negative
27.63
Negative
27.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.86
Negative
46.40
Neutral
80.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CUK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 23.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.10, below the 50-day MA of 28.47, and below the 200-day MA of 27.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CUK.
Carnival Risk Analysis
Carnival disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carnival Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $2.38B | 29.88 | 13.18% | 0.79% | 7.27% | 45.12% | |
65 Neutral | $5.99B | 15.51 | 12.76% | ― | 15.77% | 86.16% | |
62 Neutral | $5.86B | 41.35 | -82.94% | ― | 14.39% | 31.64% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $35.45B | 42.16 | 26.22% | ― | 6.39% | 39.66% | |
61 Neutral | $35.52B | 42.16 | 26.22% | ― | 6.39% | 39.66% | |
47 Neutral | $318.83M | -2.45 | ― | ― | -3.55% | -111.90% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CUK
Carnival
25.58
10.89
74.12%
CCL
Carnival
25.64
9.29
56.78%
PLNT
Planet Fitness
73.29
-19.01
-20.60%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
23.48
8.37
55.43%
XPOF
Xponential Fitness
6.51
-0.66
-9.21%
LTH
Life Time Group Holdings
26.99
-1.21
-4.29%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.