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Carnival (CUK)
NYSE:CUK
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Carnival
(NYSE:CUK)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(11.19% Upside)
Carnival (CUK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$38.41B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.6
Beta (1Y)1.81
Revenue Growth10.81%
EPS Growth175.74%
CountryUS
Employees115,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength68
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding188,483,140
10 Day Avg. Volume1,427,433
30 Day Avg. Volume1,751,345
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.15
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.00Price Target Upside11.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCarnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. It sells its cruises primarily through travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, and websites. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and internationally. It operates 87 ships with 223,000 lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarnival generates revenue primarily through ticket sales for its cruise vacations, which represent the largest portion of its income. Additional revenue comes from onboard spending, which includes purchases made by passengers for dining, beverages, excursions, spa services, and merchandise while on board. The company also earns income from its travel agent commissions and partnerships with other travel-related companies. Furthermore, Carnival benefits from its loyalty programs, which encourage repeat customers and enhance customer retention. Significant partnerships with airlines, hotels, and excursion providers contribute to bundled service offerings, enhancing overall customer experience and driving additional sales.
Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 25.08%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with record revenue, successful achievement of financial and sustainability targets, and positive future outlook with new destinations and fleet investments. However, concerns about geopolitical tensions and increased costs presented challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Earnings
Carnival achieved record revenues and new second quarter highs for EBITDA and operating income, with EBITDA up 26% year-over-year and operating income up 67%.
Exceeded Financial Targets
Carnival surpassed its 50% EBITDA per ALBD growth target and 12% return on invested capital target 18 months ahead of schedule.
Sustainable Achievements
Carnival reduced its carbon intensity by 20% compared to 2019, meeting its 2026 sustainability target.
Strong Booking Position
Customer deposits reached an all-time high, and the company maintained a strong booking position with high prices.
Celebration Key and New Destinations
The opening of Celebration Key and expansions at Relax Away Half Moon Cay and Mahogany Bay are expected to boost consumer interest and revenue.
Successful Fleet Investments
The introduction of Aida Diva and planned new builds for Aida and Carnival brands are expected to drive future demand.
Loyalty Program Launch
Carnival announced a new loyalty program, Carnival Rewards, expected to increase customer engagement and lifetime value.
Debt Reduction Efforts
Carnival prepaid $350 million in debt and expects to opportunistically accelerate debt reduction, with leverage metrics improving.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical Concerns
Carnival is monitoring the conflict in the Middle East, though it has not yet had a discernible impact on business.
Higher Cruise Costs Forecasted
Third-quarter cruise costs without fuel are expected to be up 7% year-over-year, driven by various factors including operational expenses for the new Celebration Key.
Loyalty Program Initial Yield Impact
The new loyalty program is expected to have a half-point negative impact on yields in 2026 due to revenue deferrals.
Company Guidance
During the Carnival Corporation's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported record-breaking results, marking eight consecutive quarters of record revenues and yields. Key financial metrics highlighted included a 26% year-over-year increase in EBITDA, a 67% rise in operating income, and net income surpassing guidance by $185 million. Yields improved by 6.5%, outperforming guidance by 200 basis points, while unit costs were also 200 basis points better than expected. The company achieved historic EBITDA margins, 200 basis points higher than in 2019, and reached its 2026 targets for EBITDA per ALBD growth and return on invested capital (ROIC) 18 months ahead of schedule. Additionally, the company met its environmental target of reducing carbon intensity by 20% from 2019 levels. Looking forward, Carnival aims to sustain strong yield growth, with expectations of a 16% increase in yields across 2024 and 2025.Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Carnival has shown significant recovery in revenue and profitability, with improved operational efficiency. However, high leverage and volatile cash flow growth remain concerns.Income Statement
Carnival has shown a strong recovery in its revenue growth, with a significant increase from $12.17 billion in 2022 to $25.97 billion TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) in 2025. The gross profit margin has improved, highlighting increased operational efficiency. The net profit margin is positive, indicating profitability, a stark contrast to the losses in 2022. However, despite these improvements, the company still faces challenges with volatile EBIT and EBITDA margins due to industry fluctuations.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The Debt-to-Equity ratio remains high due to significant leverage, although there has been some improvement in stockholders' equity. The return on equity has shifted to positive, reflecting enhanced profitability. Despite this, the equity ratio is relatively low, indicating a high dependency on debt financing, which could pose risks if market conditions worsen.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Carnival's cash flow generation has improved, with an increase in free cash flow, showcasing better capital management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is solid, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate shows volatility, highlighting potential risks in sustaining cash flow growth amidst capital expenditures and financing needs.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.97B | 25.02B | 21.59B | 12.17B | 1.91B | 5.59B |
| Gross Profit | 10.18B | 9.38B | 7.28B | 412.00M | -2.75B | -2.65B |
| EBITDA | 6.75B | 6.23B | 4.37B | -2.20B | -5.69B | -7.12B |
| Net Income | 2.52B | 1.92B | -74.00M | -6.09B | -9.50B | -10.24B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 51.16B | 49.06B | 49.12B | 51.70B | 53.34B | 53.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.15B | 1.21B | 2.42B | 4.03B | 9.14B | 9.51B |
| Total Debt | 28.65B | 28.88B | 31.89B | 35.88B | 34.61B | 28.38B |
| Total Liabilities | 41.16B | 39.81B | 42.24B | 44.64B | 41.20B | 33.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.01B | 9.25B | 6.88B | 7.06B | 12.14B | 20.55B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.81B | 1.30B | 997.00M | -6.61B | -7.72B | -9.92B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.43B | 5.92B | 4.28B | -1.67B | -4.11B | -6.30B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.34B | -4.54B | -2.81B | -4.77B | -3.54B | -3.24B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.61B | -2.58B | -5.09B | 3.58B | 6.95B | 18.65B |
Carnival Technical Analysis
Positive
26.98
Price Trends
25.76
Positive
22.15
Positive
22.11
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Positive
52.62
Neutral
51.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CUK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.09, above the 50-day MA of 25.76, and above the 200-day MA of 22.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CUK.
Carnival Risk Analysis
Carnival disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carnival Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $38.54B | 15.86 | 30.02% | ― | 10.81% | 175.74% | |
73 Outperform | $38.41B | 14.61 | 30.02% | ― | 10.81% | 175.74% | |
69 Neutral | $2.24B | 32.11 | 13.16% | 0.74% | 8.51% | 31.24% | |
61 Neutral | $17.42B | 12.39 | -5.32% | 3.12% | 1.53% | -15.37% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CUK
Carnival
26.98
11.88
78.68%
CCL
Carnival
29.27
12.66
76.22%
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings
22.96
7.70
50.46%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.